新疆两次强震前后地震视应力变化

选取了喀什数字地震台记录的喀什及周边地区地震的宽频带波形资料,分析处理了2001～2005年Ms 3.5以上地震164次,通过数字地震波谱计算了标量地震矩和地震辐射能量,从而进行了视应力的计算.给出了巴楚-伽师Ms 6.8和乌什Ms 6.3强震前后视应力的时序变化情况,发现其视应力均表现出震前低应力阶段-主震前的逐渐上升-震后逐渐恢复的动态变化过程,即地震的孕震-发震-震后调整的阶段性变化特征.这一结果可为喀什及周边地区今后进行地震预测预报研究提供参考依据,对该区开展数字地震方面的研究也有所帮助.     

Historical 1942 Ecuador and 1942 Peru subduction earthquakes and earthquake cycles along Colombia-Ecuador and Peru subduction segments

Two large shallow earthquakes occurred in 1942 along the South American subduction zone inclose proximity to subducting oceanic ridges: The 14 May event occurred near the subducting Carnegie ridge off the coast of Ecuador, and the 24 August event occurred off the coast of southwestern Peru near the southern flank of the subducting Nazca ridge. Source parameters for these for these two historic events have been determined using long-periodP waveforms,P-wave first motions, intensities and local tsunami data.We have analyzed theP waves for these two earthquakes to constrain the focal mechanism, depth, source complexity and seismic moment. Modeling of theP waveform for both events yields a range of acceptable focal mechanisms and depths, all of which are consistent with underthrusting of the Nazca plate beneath the South American plate. The source time function for the 1942 Ecuador event has one simple pulse of moment release with a duration of 22 suconds, suggesting that most of the moment release occurred near the epicenter. The seismic moment determined from theP waves is 6–8×10²⁰N·m, corresponding ot a moment magnitude of 7.8–7.9. The reported location of the maximum intensities (IX) for this event is south of the main shock epicenter. The relocated aftershcks are in an area that is approximately 200 km by 90 km (elongated parallel to the trench) with the majority of aftershocks north of the epicenter. In contrast, the 1942 Peru event has a much longer duration and higher degree of complexity than the Ecuador earthquake, suggesting a heterogeneous rupture. Seismic moment is released in three distinct pulses over approximately 74 seconds; the largest moment release occurs 32 seconds after rupture initiation. the seismic moment as determined from theP waves for the 1942 Peru event is 10–25×10²⁰N·m, corresponding to a moment magnitude of 7.9–8.2. Aftershock locations reported by the ISS occur over a broad area surrounding the main shock. The reported locations of the maximum intensities (IX) are concentrated south of the epicenter, suggesting that at least part of the rupture was to the south.We have also examined great historic earthquakes along the Colombia-Ecuador and Peru segments of the South American subduction zone. We find that the size and rupture length of the underthrusting earthquakes vary between successive earthquake cycles. This suggests that the segmentation of the plate boundary as defined by earthquakes this century is not constant.     

Source parameters of the 2004 Kaliningrad earthquakes

An analysis of source parameters of the two unexpected earthquakes from the Kaliningrad (Russia) area is presented. The earthquakes occurred on 21 September 2004 at 11:05:01 and 13:32:31 UT, respectively. The first event was located at the latitude φ = 54.924°N and the longitude λ = 20.120°E, with a depth h = 16 km, and the second event at φ = 54.876°N, λ = 20.120°E and h = 20 km. Magnitudes Mw of the two events were very similar: 5.1 and 5.2. The magnitude values reported by various international data centers have been meaningfully different. The reason is the presence of high-frequency components in Z velocity component of the S wavefield. They were observed along the direction defined by two stations, BLEU in Sweden and SUW in Poland, located in opposite sides of the source. Along the direction perpendicular to it, the effects are relatively very small. The high-frequency waves are understood to mean components in the 6–8 Hz band for event 1 and 2-4 Hz for event 2. The effects in question are also clearly visible on displacement spectrograms. The magnitude values calculated at such stations from S-wave amplitudes or from seismic spectra are clearly overestimated and are close to 6. Therefore, we made a careful selection of channels in order to determine the spectral parameters and, on this basis, the source parameters. The size of the source is relatively small, of about 2 km. The closest seismic station is at 100 source radii from the source. One can clearly see the effect of the TT zone which markedly reduces the seismic moment value for seismic stations laying on the opposite sides of the source. Both events have very similar spatial distributions of the source parameters: magnitude, seismic moment and radius.     

Using Long-Period Body Wave to Inverse Moment Tensors of the M_S6.8 Jiashi,Xinjiang Earthquake in 2003 and the Moderate and Small Earthquakes before and after It

An Ms6.8 strong earthquake took place in Jiashi, Xinjiang on February 24 of 2003. The digital wave form data recorded in Kashi and Wushi stations are selected to inverse the moment tensor solutions for the strong earthquake and the moderate and small earthquakes before and after it （ 108 earthquakes in 2001 - 2004）. 67 focal mechanism solutions have been calculated, and the results agree with those from Harvard University and USGS. The analysis reveals that before the strong earthquake, the moderate and small earthquake distribution was dispersed, and after the event the distribution was mainly concentrated around the strong earthquake. Before the strong earthquake, the seismic faults of the mid and small events had the character of strike-slip and normal faulting, and after the event, they exhibit strike-slip and thrust faulting. The region is dominated by near-NS horizontal compression from the southern block after the strong earthquake.     

1995年陡河地震前后小震震源参数及其相互关系

在震源谱的多台多震尾波解法的基础上,应用Brune震源模型,求解1995年10月6日陡河ML5.9地震前后在其周围发生的48次小地震的震源因子和震源波谱,进而估算了地震矩、拐角频率和应力降,并讨论了它们之间的相互关系和在陡河地震前后随时间的变化．结果表明:小震震源因子表现出相当大的稳定性,震源因子的峰值频率和随频率的变化形态都很相似．发现震前一年左右曾多次出现应力降较高的事件．需要指出的是,考虑到应力降由地震矩和拐角频率计算得到以及地震矩和拐角频率的相关关系,实际上,这里的高应力降指的是拐角频率高于正常值的情形．      

2010年2月27日智利Mw8.8地震前全球地震活动特征分析

通过对智利地震前全球不同时空范围地震活动特征分析,发现:①智利地震前出现了两类地震空区:第一类空区为1900年以来形成的360 km长的Mw≥8.0地震空段,第二类空区为震前5年形成的780 km长的M≥5.5地震空段;②1986-2010年,智利中南部仅发生1次Mw7.1地震,表现为显著的Mw≥7.0地震平静异常;③...     

汶川8.0级与昆仑山口西8.1级地震前地震活动异常特征与启示

两次特大地震前在不同时段、 不同范围出现了多项相似的地震活动性异常, 它们对预测特大地震具有一定意义: ① 两次大震前10余年, 青藏块体同期出现了两个规模巨大的中强以上地震增强区, 两次大地震发生在增强区内的空区里; ② 两次巨大地震前数年, 形成规模巨大的中强地震活动带, 地震发生在两个条带间的平静区里; 同期形成中等以上地震活动环, 其内部的地震频度、 加卸载响应比及非均匀度等参数甚高, 且随时间而变化, 这可作为孕震进入中期的信号; ③ 两次大震前的震群、 震丛均很显著, 昆仑山口西地震前四个显著震丛环绕震中四周分布, 汶川地震前震群在震中周围形成包围圈, 它们应视为大震孕育进入后期的显示; ④ 大震前数月, 靠近发震断裂带发生少量中小地震或少见的震群。 汶川地震前10个月, 龙门山断裂带北部发生两次青川4级多地震和松潘4.3级地震, 南部康定附近发生3次4级以上地震。 紫坪铺水库区小震群于震前3个月活动十分强烈。 昆仑山口西地震前约1年青海兴海发生6.6级地震, 昆仑山口西发生5.1级地震, 该地震距离8.1级地震约30 km。这些特征给我们的重要启示是: ① 特大地震前出现的前兆时空特征与常见的中强地震差异很大, 现行的监测预报体制(分省分片负责)与特大地震前兆不相适应; ② 特大地震的预测预报不能单纯依靠地震前兆, 必须与地质构造及深部探测紧密结合起来; ③ 特大地震的预测预报应有新的预报战略、 观测系统与组织机构相适应。     

Fault plane parameters of Sanhe-Pinggu M8 earthquake in 1679 determined using present-day small earthquakes

The great Sanhe-Pinggu M8 earthquake occurred in 1679 was the largest surface rupture event recorded in history in the northern part of North China plain. This study determines the fault geometry of this earthquake by inverting seismological data of present-day moderate-small earthquakes in the focal area. We relocated those earthquakes with the double-difference method. Based on the assumption that clustered small earthquakes often occur in the vicinity of fault plane of large earthquake, and referring to the morphology of the long axis of the isoseismal line obtained by the predecessors, we selected a strip-shaped zone from the relocated earthquake catalog in the period from 1980 to 2009 to invert fault plane parameters of this earthquake. The inversion results are as follows: the strike is 38.23°, the dip angle is 82.54°, the slip angle is -156.08°, the fault length is about 80 km, the lower-boundary depth is about 23 km and the buried depth of upper boundary is about 3 km. This shows that the seismogenic fault is a NNE-trending normal dip-slip fault, southeast wall downward and northwest wall uplift, with the right-lateral strike-slip component. Moreover, the surface rupture zone, intensity distribution of the earthquake and seismic-wave velocity profile in the focal area all verified our study result.     

东亚南北地震带大震活动性研究

根据中国南北地震带与青藏-印尼“歹”字型构造带在成因上的联系，提出东亚南北地震带的观点，认为该地震带包含蒙古、中国西部、缅甸和印尼苏门答腊地区。研究了该带大地震活动的同步性、主体活动区的有序转移、大地震之间的多次相关迁移与重复等特征，并划分出了该带的5个大震活跃幕：1887-1912年、1913-1937年、1938-1957年、1958-1976年、1977-2005年。苏门答腊2004年12月26日8．7级和2005年3月29日8．5级巨震标志着该地震带最近一次以主体活动区南移到苏门答腊为特征的活跃时段即将结束。尽管未来一、两年内地震带的中部存在发生7级地震的有利时段，但结合强震图像异常指标反映的孕震状况分析，未来7级地震危险区尚不明朗。     

The Event of 26th of December 2004 – The Biggest Earthquake in the World in the Last 40 years

A great earthquake occurred at 00:58:49 (UTC) on Sunday, December 26, 2004 off the northwest coast of Sumatra, Indonesia. Its revised moment magnitude was M 9.3 making it in the top four largest earthquakes in the world since 1900 and the largest since the Alaskan 1964 event. The earthquake caused tsunami waves which killed more than 300,000 people in Southern Asia and Africa. There were 31 earthquakes with magnitudes between 5.5 and 7.3 in the 48-h period after the main event, and it seemed that seismicity migrated northwards along the 1200 km fault (http: //www.ga.gov.au). Similar size events occurred in that location off Sumatra in the 19th century, but no evidence of written records of their tsunami effects in Australia is found. The devastating megathrust earthquake of 26 December 2004 occurred on the interface of the Indo-Australian and Euro-Asian plates where the first plate subducts beneath the overriding second plate and the Indo-Australian plate begins its descent into the mantle. In the epicentral region, the Indo-Australian plate moves toward the northeast at a rate of about 7 cm/year relative to the Euro-Asian plate resulting in oblique convergence and partitioning into thrust-faulting. From the size of the earthquake, it is likely that the displacement on the fault plane was up to fifteen meters. As with the recent event, megathrust earthquakes often generate large tsunamis that cause damage over a much wider area than is directly affected by ground shaking near the earthquake’s rupture. The subduction zone continues further south of the Indonesian archipelago and that area is also a potential risk of producing a megathrust event that may affect coastal parts of northwest Australia. The tragic events of Boxing Day 2004 highlighted the importance of establishing a tsunami warning system for the Indian Ocean like the one for the Pacific. Issues like more and better instrumentation, and a long-term program to educate people in the region about the dangers of tsunamis, were identified as priorities. Of particular interest is the time for identifying and issuing alerts for such devastating earthquakes with possibility to reduce it in future for warning purposes.     

Source Characteristics of the 12 November 1996 Mw 7.7 Peru Subduction Zone Earthquake

—The 12 November 1996 M _w 7.7 Peru subduction zone earthquake occurred off the coast of southern Peru, near the intersection of the South American trench and the highest topographical point of the subducting Nazca Ridge. We model the broadband teleseismic P-waveforms from stations in the Global Seismic Network to constrain the source characteristics of this subduction zone earthquake. We have analyzed the vertical component P-waves for this earthquake to constrain the depth, source complexity, seismic moment and rupture characteristics. The seismic moment determined from the nondiffracted P-waves is 3–5 × 10²⁰ N·m, corresponding to a moment magnitude M _w of 7.6–7.7. The source time function for the 1996 Peru event has three pulses of seismic moment release with a total duration of approximately 45–50 seconds. The largest moment release occurs at approximately 35–40 seconds and is located ～90km southeast of the rupture initiation. Approximately 70% of the seismic moment was released in the third pulse.¶We find that the 1996 event reruptured part of the rupture area of the previous event in 1942. The location of the 1996 earthquake corresponds to a region along the Peru coast with the highest uplift rates of marine terraces. This suggests that the uplift may be due to repeated earthquakes such as the 1996 and 1942 events.     

鄂尔多斯周缘地区中强震发生前地震矩加速释放时空特征

为研究鄂尔多斯周缘地区中强地震发生前地震矩加速释放时空特征,选取去丛集后的地震目录,基于地震矩释放程度m值,对1981年以来鄂尔多斯周缘地区10例MS≥5.5中强地震进行二维时空扫描,提取与地震矩加速释放特征相关的时空尺度作为矩释放程度时空扫描模型参数,以3个月为扫描步长,对震前12个月m值及累积Benioff应变释放进行拟合计算。结果显示,震前破裂成核点附近存在显著的AMR现象,7次震例存在累积Benioff应变加速释放特征,说明鄂尔多斯周缘地区MS≥5.5地震发生前AMR现象存在一定普遍性,应用矩加速时空扫描方法具有一定优势,但仍需结合其他方法进行综合分析。     

基于密集台阵研究2019辽宁抚顺M2.4矿震震源参数

分析矿震破裂机制及微震的时空分布能够为矿区灾害评估提供更多的有效信息.本研究基于密集台阵观测对2019年11月12日辽宁抚顺2.4级矿震开展震源参数研究,震源机制解显示地震破裂包含明显的非双力偶分量,表现为体积压缩的塌陷机制,且震源深度较浅,最佳拟合矩心深度为0.6 km.同时,对11月3日—25日记录的连续地震波形开展微震扫描,新检测出324个微震事件(-0.5~2.0级),定位结果显示在M 2.4矿震发生前M>1.0级事件显著增多,且在矿震位置存在近南北向的微震条带分布,微震序列随时间向深部迁移(约1.5 km),暗示存在断层活化迹象.结合震源破裂机制,我们认为此次事件与矿区塌陷破裂密切相关,同时伴随先存断裂的剪切滑动.本研究表明,基于密集台阵观测的地震矩张量反演和微震检测研究,对判定矿震类型及防范矿区灾害具有重要的研究意义.     

2008年汶川MS8.0地震前地震活动异常特征

分析了汶川地震前地震活动时空演化特征．结果表明:①汶川地震前38a龙门山断裂带及其附近形成5级地震背景空区,震前6.5a形成ML4.0地震孕震空区,震前1a孕震空区内部及其两端相继发生多次ML4.0—5.0地震,空区缩小;②中国大陆西部及邻区2001年以来处于大震活跃时段,而中国大陆内部地震活动水平非常低,出现非常显著的7级、6级和5级地震平静;③南北地震带7级以上地震在时间上具有准周期特征,空间上存在由南向北迁移的特点,汶川地震的发生符合这一规律;④1998年以来南北地震带中段为7级地震空段,汶川地震就发生该空段内;⑤2003年云南大姚地震后,南北地震带地震活动显著增强,且在中、南段形成4.6级以上地震环形分布,四川及其附近表现为异常平静,同时震群活动显著,且在4.6级地震平静区内形成震群空区,汶川地震就发生震群空区的边缘,震前8个月,震群频度出现高值异常;⑥汶川地震前7个月,青藏块体大范围ML≥4.0地震平静103d,2008年1月13日以后平静区逐渐解体,至汶川地震前４级地震平静区缩小到巴颜喀拉地块,汶川地震就发生在巴颜喀拉地块的东边界带上,汶川地震前3 个多月,孕震空区内部出现NW走向的3级地震条带,与龙门山断裂带斜交．      

智利M_W8.3地震与M_W8.8地震的震源过程及其引起的库仑应力特征

2015年9月17日6时54分32秒(北京时间)智利中部伊拉佩尔附近(震中31.57°S,71.67°W)发生了一次M_w8.3大地震,在此次地震震中以南约500 km处的马乌莱地区曾于2010年2月27日14时34分11秒发生过一次M_w8.8强震(震中36.12°S,72.90°W),两次地震余震分布区之间有约75 km的地震空区.本文利用远场体波与面波波形,基于有限断层模型,反演了这两次地震的震源破裂过程.结果显示这两次地震均为逆冲型大地震,2015年伊拉佩尔M_w8.3地震的平均滑动角度为107°,平均滑动量为2.43 m,平均破裂速度为1.82 km·s~(-1),标量地震矩为3.28×10~(21)Nm,95%的标量地震矩在104 s内得到了释放.最大滑动量约8 m,位于沿走向75 km,深度8 km处.2010年马乌莱M_w8.8地震的平均滑动角度为109°,平均滑动量为4.95 m,平均破裂速度1.90 km·s~(-1),标量地震矩为1.86×10~(22)Nm,95%的标量地震矩在121 s内得到了释放.最大滑动量约12.5 m,位于沿走向100 km,深度21 km处.2015年伊拉佩尔M_w8.3地震浅部更大的滑动量应该是其引起了较大海啸的一个原因.基于破裂滑动分布,我们计算了这两次地震引起的周边俯冲带上静态库仑应力变化,结果显示两次地震均显著增加了周边俯冲带上的库仑应力,2010年马乌莱地震使得2015.年伊拉佩尔地震震源区附近的库仑应力增加了(0.01~0.15)×10~5Pa,从应力积累的角度看,2010年马乌莱地震有利于2015年伊拉佩尔地震的发生,对后者的发生起到了促进作用.     

粤闽交界及其近海地区地震活动分析

结合东南沿海地区的地质构造背景、地震活动特点,研究粤闽交界及其近海地区(N 22.80°~24.00°、E116.50°~118.00°)地震活动特征,结果表明此区域:1具备中强地震活动的构造背景;2现代小地震呈北东方向密集成带分布在南澎列岛附近,与北东向滨海断裂的方向一致;3 6级以上地震序列类型多属主余型;4 1971年有小震记录以来,一直存在背景性的ML2级左右地震活动;ML4级以上地震活动成丛分布特征明显;中等地震(ML4~5级)的发生与本区小震活动增强之间无明显关联;当出现年平均b值低于平均值、且较上一年b值下降幅度≥0.5时,可能预示本区进入ML4级地震活跃时段,东南沿海地震带在未来1~2年内可能有中强或以上地震发生;ML4.5级以上地震前,应变能释放曲线存在加速变化。     

云南地区近期强震重复发生时地震学的动态演化特征

通过地强震重复发生的滇西北、滇东北、滇西南澜沧江以西３个地震区多项地震活动性和地震波参数的动态追踪，发现在同一地震区重复发生的强震，震前的异常形态可以具有相惟性，反向变化的特征。如滇东北地区中小地震在１９８５年禄劝强震前的活跃和１９９５年武定强震前的平静；澜沧地震叶波速比月均值在１９８８年澜沧－－耿马大震前的低值异常和１９９５年孟连西中缅边境大震前的高值异常。本同时以ｂ值和波速比为例，讨论了强震     

Application of the predictable model of regional time-magnitude to North and Southwest China region

In this paper, the method which can combine different seismic data with the different precision and completeness, even the palaeo-earthquake data, has been applied to estimate the yearly seismic moment rate in the seismic region. Based on this, the predictable model of regional time-magnitude has been used in North China and Southwest China. The normal correlation between the time interval of the events and the magnitude of the last strong earthquake shows that the model is suitable. The value of the parameter c is less than the average value of 0.33 that is obtained from the events occurred in the plate boundary in the world. It is explained that the correlativity between the recurrence interval of the earthquake and the magnitude of the last strong event is not obvious. It is shown that the continental earthquakes in China are different from that occurred in the plate boundary and the recurrence model for the continental events are different from the one for the plate boundary events. Finally the seismic risk analysis based on this model for North China and Southwest China is given in this paper.     

南北地震带北段近期强震趋势研究

2008年5月12日汶川8.0级地震后,南北地震带可能进入新一轮的强震活跃期.从汶川8.0级地震以来ML≥5.0地震活动空间分布特征来看,近期南北地震带北段与中、南段存在较大差异.由南北地震带强震前孕震区中强地震活动特征,并结合当前5级地震活动情况,认为应同时关注南北地震带中、南段和北段的强震危险性.甘东南地区出现的4级地震空区被2011年2月23日迭部-岷县交界ML4.4地震打破后,2011年11月1日空区周边又发生了青川Ms5.4地震,表明该空区及周边地区的地震活动增强.类比1990年共和7.0级地震前的空区演化过程,认为甘东南地区存在发生7级地震的可能.结合对甘东南地区主要大型断裂7级地震复发周期的综合分析认为,需关注南北带北段毛毛山断裂和金强河断裂、香山-天景山断裂东段、黄河断裂灵武段、西秦岭北缘断裂、六盘山-宝鸡断裂和东昆仑断裂东段玛沁-玛曲段发生7级地震的可能.     

2022年门源MS6.9地震震区三维速度与发震机制研究

2022年1月8日,青海省门源县发生M_S6.9地震。使用青海、甘肃等区域数字台网所观测到的2009年1月1日—2022年2月8日间青海门源及周边地区(36°～39°N,101°～104°E)14 869次地震事件的地震观测资料,基于双差成像(TomoDD)方法进行重定位分析,结果表明：门源及周边地区地震震源深度较浅,主要集中在5～15 km深度范围,其中10 km附近分布最多。推断该深度区域为门源及周边地区的主要孕震区。基于地震重定位结果和主震区三维速度结构分别对2016年门源M_S6.4地震和此次地震序列的发震机理进行分析对比,发现两次地震都位于高速异常体边缘,速度结构与断裂、地震序列吻合较好。2022年门源地震位于高速体的西端末梢位置,是该高速体受青藏高原东北缘顺时针应力作用导致的滑动产生的走滑型地震。