Holocene vegetation and hydrology variations and their associations with climate changes: a multi-proxy analysis of a sediment core from an alpine basin in the middle Tianshan Mountains

We in this paper present a multi-proxy study of a 186-cm-long lacustrine sediment core (i.e., BY Core) obtained from the Youerdusi Basin in the middle Tianshan Mountains in an attempt to disentangle the causal associations among climate changes, ecological responses and hydrological variations. Palynological, assemblages and the associated biome scores indicate that the upper limit of the forest zone was closer to the Youerdusi Basin with a larger wetland extent in the Youerdusi Basin during the early part (i.e., from ~ 10.5 to ~ 5.8 cal. kyr BP) of the data-covering period (i.e., from ~ 10.5 to ~ 2.4 cal. kyr BP). The upper limit of the forest zone was farther away from the Youerdusi Basin with a smaller wetland extent in the Youerdusi Basin during the late part (i.e., from ~ 5.8 to ~ 2.4 cal. kyr BP). The changes of taiga biome score and the AP% ratio indicate a persistent cooling trend during the data-covering period which is well corroborated by various proxy data from nearby sites and the cooling trend is chronologically consistent with the trend of Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies that was interpreted to be a delayed response to the summer solar irradiance at 50° N. The tundra biome score and the associated percentages of Cyperaceae in the Youerdusi Basin show two major stages of wetland extent variation. The wetland extent variation in the Youerdusi Basin might have been controlled by precipitation and/or by glacier-melting potential that was in turn controlled by both temperature and the extent of remained ice cover in higher elevations. The δ¹³C_org values obtained from the BY Core indicate a wetting trend during the data-covering period which is reasonably corroborated by various proxy data from nearby sites. We infer that the wetting trend was causally associated with the Holocene increasing trend of the North Atlantic Ocean SST (sea surface temperature) and also with the Holocene increasing trend of the westerlies’ intensity.

     

An assessment of the influence of land cover uncertainties on the simulation of global climate in the early Holocene

Six and 21 kyear BP represent the extreme states of climate since the last glacial maximum. The early Holocene, in contrast, was a time of transition, experiencing rapidly melting continental ice sheets, rising sea-level, and increasing summer insolation. Key features of the climate, illustrated by an NCAR CCM3 general circulation model experiment representing 11 kyr BP, include enhanced continentality and seasonality, and an enhanced northern monsoon. The principal circulation responses to the 11 kyr BP boundary conditions can be summarized as an intensification and northward shift of the mean meridional circulation and an intensification of the planetary wave structure of the Northern Hemisphere in northern summer, and a slight intensification of the mean meridional circulation coupled with a southward shift in the planetary wave structure in northern winter. These changes are manifest in the enhancement of the typical seasonal cycle of sea-level pressure in the Northern Hemisphere relative to that of the present day, and enhancement and equatorward shift of the Aleutian and Icelandic lows in northern winter. Over the period 15-8 kyr BP, within the current boreal forest zone, herbaceous tundra was replaced by shrub tundra, and subsequently by evergreen or deciduous forest, but there is uncertainty in the location, timing, and exact nature of these transitions. The specific location of the relatively small area of the Asian boreal forest-tundra transition can have an impact on regional climate, primarily in the net shortwave radiation component of the surface energy budget in spring, and in the cloudiness, net shortwave radiation, and turbulent heat fluxes in summer. These changes also have an impact on global climate. Our results suggest that the additional northern heating leads to a reduced equator-pole heat transport in the Northern Hemisphere which then influences heat and momentum transport in the Southern Hemisphere.     

中国、北半球和全球的气温突变分析及其趋势预测研究

本文采用均值差异假设检验研究了中国、北半球和全球气温历史序列的突变现象。分析表明，中国气温从本世纪以来，在４０年代末扣年代初曾出现一次由暖到冷的突变。北半球和全球均曾在１９世纪末和本世纪２０年代发生了突变现象。功率谱分析表明，气温的突变指数曲线具有明显的周期性。一系列比较研究证明，按照分析出的突变点将气温序列分段建模，无论数值误差还是变化趋势，效果均优于整段序列的模型。所以，对未来气温变化趋势作预测，应首先搞清楚未来会处在怎样的气候阶段中，会不会出现突变。研究表明，本文叙述的均生函数累加延拓的时序建模方案，对气温序列有很好的拟合和预测效果。     

1,800 Years of abrupt climate change, severe fire, and accelerated erosion, Sierra Nevada, California, USA

This paper provides both a detailed history of environmental change in the Sierra Nevada over the past 1,800 years and evidence for climate teleconnections between the Sierra Nevada and Greenland during the late Holocene. A review of Greenland ice core data suggests that the magnitudes of abrupt changes in temperature and precipitation increased beginning c. 3,700 and 3,000 years ago, respectively. Precipitation increased abruptly 1,300 years ago. Comparing paleotemperature data from Cirque Peak, CA with paleoprecipitation data from Pyramid Lake, NV suggests that hot temperatures occurred at the beginnings of most severe droughts in the Sierra Nevada over the past 1,800 years. Severe fires and erosion also occurred at Coburn Lake, CA at the beginning of all severe droughts in the Sierra Nevada over the past 1,800 years. This suggests that abrupt climate change during the late Holocene caused vegetation and mountain slopes in some areas to be out of equilibrium with abruptly changed climates. Finally, the ending of drought conditions in Greenland coincided with the beginning of drought conditions in the Sierra Nevada over the past 1,800 years, perhaps as a result of the rapidly changed locations of the Earth??s major precipitation belts during abrupt climate change events.     

Low-frequency and high-frequency changes in temperature and effective humidity during the Holocene in south-central Sweden: implications for atmospheric and oceanic forcings of climate

An integrated use of independent palaeoclimatological proxy techniques that reflect different components of the climate system provides a potential key for functional analysis of past climate changes. Here we report a 10,000 year quantitative record of annual mean temperature (T _ann), based on pollen-climate transfer functions and pollen-stratigraphical data from Lake Flarken, south-central Sweden. The pollen-based temperature reconstruction is compared with a reconstruction of effective humidity, as reflected by a δ¹⁸O record obtained on stratigraphy of lacustrine carbonates from Lake Igelsjön, c. 10 km from Lake Flarken, which gives evidence of pronounced changes in effective humidity. The relatively low T _ann, and high effective humidity as reflected by a low evaporation/inflow ratio suggest a maritime early Holocene climate (10,000–8,300 cal year BP), seemingly incompatible with the highly seasonal solar insolation configuration. We argue that the maritime climate was due to the stronger-than-present zonal flow, enhanced by the high early Holocene sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. The maritime climate mode was disrupted by the abrupt cold event at 8,200 cal year BP, followed at 8,000 cal year BP by a stable Holocene Thermal Maximum. The latter was characterized by T _ann values about 2.5°C higher than at present and markedly dry conditions, indicative of stable summer-time anti-cyclonic circulation, possibly corresponding with modern blocking anticyclonic conditions. The last 4,300 year period is characterized by an increasingly cold, moist, and unstable climate. The results demonstrate the value of combining two independent palaeoclimatic proxies in enhancing the reliability, generality, and interpretability of the palaeoclimatic results. Further methodological refinements especially in resolving past seasonal climatic contrasts are needed to better understand the role of different forcing factors in driving millennial-scale climate dynamics.     

An aridity trend in china and its abrupt feature in association with the global warming

A distinct aridity tread in China in last 100 years is presented by applying a linear fitting to both the climate re-cords and the hydrological records, which is supported by evidence of environmental changes and seems to be associ-ated with a global warming trend during this period.The Mann Kendall Rank statistic test reveals a very interesting feature that the climate of China entered into a dry regime abruptly in about l920’s, which synchronized with the rapid warming of the global temperature at almost the same time.According to an analysis of the meridional profile of observed global zonal mean precipitation anomalies during the peak period of global warming (1930-1940), the drought occurred in whole middle latitude zone (25oN-55oN) of the Northern Hemisphere, where the most part of China is located in. Although this pattern is in good agreement with the latitude distribution of the difference of zonal mean rates of precipitation between 4 × CO2 and 1 × CO2 simu-lated by climate model (Manabe and Wetherald, 1983), more studies are required to understand the linkage between the aridity trend in China and the greenhouse effect.The EOF analysis of the Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure for the season of June to August shows an ab-rupt change of the time coefficient of its first eigenvector from positive to negative in mid-lP^s, indicating an enhancement of the subtropical high over Southeast Asia and the western Pacific after that time. This is an atmos-pheric circulation pattern that is favorable to the development of dry climate in China.     

Acceleration technique for Milankovitch type forcing in a coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation model: method and application for the Holocene

A method is introduced which allows the calculation of long-term climate trends within the framework of a coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation model. The change in the seasonal cycle of incident solar radiation induced by varying orbital parameters has been accelerated by factors of 10 and 100 in order to allow transient simulations over the period from the mid-Holocene until today, covering the last 7,000 years. In contrast to conventional time-slice experiments, this approach is not restricted to equilibrium simulations and is capable to utilise all available data for validation. We find that opposing Holocene climate trends in tropics and extra-tropics are a robust feature in our experiments. Results from the transient simulations of the mid-Holocene climate at 6,000 years before present show considerable differences to atmosphere-alone model simulations, in particular at high latitudes, attributed to atmosphere-ocean-sea ice effects. The simulations were extended for the time period 1800–2000 AD, where, in contrast to the Holocene climate, increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere provide for the strongest driving mechanism. The experiments reveal that a Northern Hemisphere cooling trend over the Holocene is completely cancelled by the warming trend during the last century, which brings the recent global warming into a long-term context.     

The greening of the McGill Paleoclimate Model. Part II: Simulation of Holocene millennial-scale natural climate changes

Various proxy data reveal that in many regions of the Northern Hemisphere (NH), the middle Holocene (6 kyr BP) was warmer than the early Holocene (8 kyr BP) as well as the later Holocene, up to the end of the pre-industrial period (1800 AD). This pattern of warming and then cooling in the NH represents the response of the climate system to changes in orbital forcing, vegetation cover and the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) during the Holocene. In an attempt to better understand these changes in the climate system, the McGill Paleoclimate Model (MPM) has been coupled to the dynamic global vegetation model known as VECODE (see Part I of this two-part paper), and a number of sensitivity experiments have been performed with the green MPM. The model results illustrate the following: (1) the orbital forcing together with the vegetation—albedo feedback result in the gradual cooling of global SAT from about 6 kyr BP to the end of the pre-industrial period; (2) the disappearance of the LIS over the period 8–6 kyr BP, associated with vegetation—albedo feedback, allows the global SAT to increase and reach its maximum at around 6 kyr BP; (3) the northern limit of the boreal forest moves northward during the period 8–6.4 kyr BP due to the LIS retreat; (4) during the period 6.4–0 kyr BP, the northern limit of the boreal forest moves southward about 120 km in response to the decreasing summer insolation in the NH; and (5) the desertification of northern Africa during the period 8–2.6 kyr BP is mainly explained by the decreasing summer monsoon precipitation.     

Temperature and Precipitation Changes in China During the Holocene

We review here proxy records of temperature and precipitation in China during the Holocene, especially the last two millennia. The quality of proxy data, methodology of reconstruction, and uncertainties in reconstruction were emphasized in comparing different temperature and precipitation reconstruction and clarifying temporal and spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation during the Holocene. The Holocene climate was generally warm and wet. The warmest period occurred in 9.6-6.2 cal ka BP, whereas a period of maximum monsoon precipitation started at about 11.0 cal ka BP and lasted until about 8.0-5.0 cal ka BP. There were a series of millennial-scale cold or dry events superimposed on the general trend of climate changes. During past two millennia, a warming trend in the 20th century was clearly detected, but the warming magnitude was smaller than the maximum level of the Medieval Warm Period and the Middle Holocene. Cold conditions occurred over the whole of China during the Little Ice Age （AD 1400-AD 1900）, but the warming of the Medieval Warm Period （AD 900-AD 1300） was not distinct in China, especially west China. The spatial pattern of precipitation showed significant regional differences in China, especially east China. The modern warm period has lasted 20 years from 1987 to 2006. Bi-decadal oscillation in precipitation variability was apparent over China during the 20th century. Solar activity and volcanic eruptions both were major forcings governing the climate variability during the last millennium.     

Abrupt temperature changes during the last 1,500 years

We investigate the occurrence of abrupt changes in a total of 35 different proxy records from the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere for the last ~1,500 years. The proxy records include ice-core δ¹⁸O, speleothem, tree ring width/density, marine sediment and lake sediment records with annual, sub-decadal or decadal resolutions. The aim is to explore the spatio–temporal distribution of abrupt climate changes using a kink point analysis technique. A clustering of warm kink points (the kink points with the highest temperatures) around AD 1000 appears corresponding to the Medieval Warm Period and indicates a geographically widespread temperature peak at that time. Kink points around AD 1000 are somewhat more numerous on higher latitudes than on lower latitudes. There are some tendencies for the coldest kink points (the kink points with the lowest temperatures) to be clustered in the ninetenth century, but they are generally more unevenly spaced in time than the warm peaks around AD 1000. The relative lack of kink points detected during the 1500 s–1700 s, likely the coldest part of the Little Ice Age, implies that this cold period was relatively stable and without abrupt events. A possible cluster of kink points on lower latitudes in the early ninth century is also found. No clear difference in the timing of kink points between the different proxy types can be observed.     

Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years

Summary A novel multi-timescale analysis method, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), is used to diagnose the variation of the annual mean temperature data of the global, Northern Hemisphere (NH) and China from 1881 to 2002. The results show that: (1) Temperature can be completely decomposed into four timescales quasi-periodic oscillations including an ENSO-like mode, a 6–8-year signal, a 20-year signal and a 60-year signal, as well as a trend. With each contributing ration of the quasi-periodicity discussed, the trend and the 60-year timescale oscillation of temperature variation are the most prominent. (2) It has been noticed that whether on century-scale or 60-year scales, the global temperature tends to descend in the coming 20 years. (3) On quasi 60-year timescale, temperature abrupt changes in China precede those in the global and NH, which provides a denotation for global climate changes. Signs also show a drop in temperature in China on century scale in the next 20 years. (4) The dominant contribution of CO₂ concentration to global temperature variation is the trend. However, its influence weight on global temperature variation accounts for no more than 40.19%, smaller than those of the natural climate changes on the rest four timescales. Despite the increasing trend in atmospheric CO₂ concentration, the patterns of 20-year and 60-year oscillation of global temperature are all in falling. Therefore, if CO₂ concentration remains constant at present, the CO₂ greenhouse effect will be deficient in counterchecking the natural cooling of global climate in the following 20 years. Even though the CO₂ greenhouse effect on global climate change is unsuspicious, it could have been excessively exaggerated. It is high time to re-consider the trend of global climate changes.     

Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere annual temperature since 1671 based on high-latitude tree-ring data from North America

Annual Northern Hemisphere surface temperature departures for the past 300 yr were reconstructed using eleven tree-ring chronologies from high-latitude, boreal sites in Canada and Alaska, spanning over 90 degrees of longitude. This geographic coverage is believed to be adequate for a useful representation of hemispheric-scale temperature trends, as high northern latitudes are particularly sensitive to climatic change. We also present a reconstruction of Arctic annual temperatures. The reconstructions show a partial amelioration of the Little Ice Age after the early 1700's, an abrupt, severe renewal of cold in the early 1800's and a prolonged wanning since approximately 1840. These trends are supported by other proxy data. Similarities and differences between our Northern Hemisphere reconstruction and other large-scale proxy temperature records depend on such factors as the data sources, methods, and degree of spatial representation. Analyses of additional temperature records, as they become available, are needed to determine the degree to which each series represents fluctuations for the entire hemisphere. There appear to be relationships between trends observed in our Northern Hemisphere reconstruction and certain climatic forcing functions, including solar fluctuations, volcanic activity and atmospheric CO₂. In particular, our reconstruction supports the hypothesis that the global warming trend over the past century of increasing atmospheric CO₂ has exceeded the recent level of natural variability of the climate system.Of Columbia University Department of Geological Sciences.     

全球变暖背景下对流性降水变化特征及影响 因子分析

根据NCEP/NCAR逐日、逐月温度资料和相对湿度资料,及长江中下游60个气象站逐日降水资料,采用趋势分析、突变检验等方法,研究了近60年来全球和北半球地表温度变化趋势,分析了温度增加前后,夏季(6～8月)对流性降水的变化特征及其部分影响因子.结果表明:近60年来,北半球年平均及夏季平均地面温度为增暖趋势,1998年为增暖突变年份;变暖后,长江中下游地区夏季对流性降水事件的发生频率呈增多趋势且强度增强;全球增暖后,对流层中、高层水汽含量呈下降趋势,对流层低层水汽含量呈上升趋势;热含量除个别月份外,在700、850、1000 hPa均有明显增长;大气中不稳定性也显著增强.这些与对流性降水事件发生频率的增加和强度的增强有很好的对应关系,说明全球变暖导致的大气中水汽含量变化、湿空气热含量增加和不稳定性增强对对流性降水事件可能有重要影响.     

地球系统模式中植被净初级生产力百年尺度时空变化及其与气候的关系

利用6个地球系统模式模拟的植被净初级生产力（NPP）对1901～2005年NPP时空变化进行了研究,并结合气候因子分析了NPP的变化与气温和降水的关系。结果表明:（1）近百年来全球NPP呈现上升趋势,模式集合平均的趋势系数为0.88,通过了99.9%的信度检验;北半球的趋势比南半球明显。（3）近百年来800 g(C) m-2 a-1以上的NPP高值区主要分布在南美洲赤道地区、非洲赤道地区、中南半岛和印度尼西亚一带的热带雨林区;低值区主要分布在北半球高纬度地区、非洲北部地区、亚洲大陆干旱半干旱区以及青藏高原西北部地区。（3）全球NPP与气温百年演变在大部分地区主要为正相关关系,仅在赤道附近的南美洲、非洲以及印度地区为负相关关系,主要由于这些地区辐射是NPP的限制因子。全球NPP与降水的百年变化在大部分地区也主要是正相关关系,在非洲北部到西亚中亚的干旱半干旱地区为负相关关系。（4）6个地球系统模式在全球21个区域的大部分地区的NPP和气温降水的变化关系较为一致,西非地区不同模式变化不一致,NPP模拟的不确定性较大,其次是地中海地区。（5）东亚地区NPP与气候的百年演变同步并且相关性高,反映了强烈的植被大气相互作用过程。     

Support for global climate reorganization during the “Medieval Climate Anomaly”

Widely distributed proxy records indicate that the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ~900–1350 AD) was characterized by coherent shifts in large-scale Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation patterns. Although cooler sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific can explain some aspects of medieval circulation changes, they are not sufficient to account for other notable features, including widespread aridity through the Eurasian sub-tropics, stronger winter westerlies across the North Atlantic and Western Europe, and shifts in monsoon rainfall patterns across Africa and South Asia. We present results from a full-physics coupled climate model showing that a slight warming of the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans relative to the other tropical ocean basins can induce a broad range of the medieval circulation and climate changes indicated by proxy data, including many of those not explained by a cooler tropical Pacific alone. Important aspects of the results resemble those from previous simulations examining the climatic response to the rapid Indian Ocean warming during the late twentieth century, and to results from climate warming simulations—especially in indicating an expansion of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation. Notably, the pattern of tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) change responsible for producing the proxy-model similarity in our results agrees well with MCA-LIA SST differences obtained in a recent proxy-based climate field reconstruction. Though much remains unclear, our results indicate that the MCA was characterized by an enhanced zonal Indo-Pacific SST gradient with resulting changes in Northern Hemisphere tropical and extra-tropical circulation patterns and hydroclimate regimes, linkages that may explain the coherent regional climate shifts indicated by proxy records from across the planet. The findings provide new perspectives on the nature and possible causes of the MCA—a remarkable, yet incompletely understood episode of Late Holocene climatic change.     

北极涛动的年代际变化及其气候影响

北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation,AO)是北半球热带外地区大气环流变率的主导模态,对北半球以及区域尺度气温变化具有重要影响。AO可在没有外强迫条件下通过波流相互作用形成,因此它被认为是全球气候系统内部变率的重要组成部分。研究年代际尺度上AO的变化及其气候影响,可加深对当前北半球气候变化规律的物理理解,也可为预估未来年代际尺度上气候变化及其不确定性提供科学依据。本文从AO影响东亚冬季风年代际变化的物理机制、AO对北半球冬季气温长期趋势的贡献、AO年代际影响的不确定性三个方面出发,简要回顾和总结了近年来有关年代际尺度上冬季AO时空变化及其对北半球气候影响的研究成果,并初步展望一些值得继续深入研究的问题。     

Temperature and Precipitation Changes in China During the Holocene

We review here proxy records of temperatare and precipitation in China during the Holocene,especially the last two millennia.The quality of proxy data,methodology of reconstruction,and uncertainties in reconstruction were emphasized in comparing different temperatare and precipitation reconstruction and clarilying temporal and spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation during the Holocene.The Holocene climate was generally warm and wet.The warmest period occurred in 9.6-6.2 cal ka BP,whereas a period of maximum monsoon precipitation started at about 11.0 cal ka BP and lasted until about 8.O-5.0 cal ka BP.There were a series of millennial-scale cold or dry events superimposed on the general trend of climate changes.During past two millennia,a warming trend in the 20th century was clearly detected,but the warming magnitude was smaller than the maximum level of the Medieval Warm Period and the Middle Holocene.Cold conditions occurred over the whole of China during the Little Ice Age (AD 1400-AD 1900),but the warming of the Medieval Warm Period(AD 900-AD 1300)was not distinct in China,especially west China.The spatial pattern of precipitation showed significant regional differences in China,especially east China.The modern warm period has lasted 20、years from 1987 to 2006.Bi-decadal oscillation in precipitation variability was apparent over China during the 20th century. Solar activity and volcanic eruptions both were major forcings governing the climate variability during the last millennium.     

The Response of First Flowering Dates to Abrupt Climate Change in Beijing

Phenological data on the First Flowering Date(FFD) of woody plants in Beijing from 1963-2007 are analyzed.The correlation between each species’ yearly FFD and the mean monthly temperatures for every year over a 45-year period is used to identify the month in which temperature has the most effect on FFD. Through further analysis,the FFDs of 48 woody plant species are shown to have advanced an average of 5.4 days from 1990-2007 compared to 1963-1989.The results indicate that 70.8%of species flowered significantly earlier(7 days on average) during the period 1990-2007,while only one species(2.1%) flowered significantly later.Moreover,the responses of FFD to climate change are shown to be different in two climatic stages, defined by an abrupt climate change point.Thirty-three species which first flower in March and April are sensitive to temperature are examined.The correlation coefficients between FFD and temperature for 20 species during the latter period(1990-2007) are shown to be larger than during the former period(1963- 1989),with a difference of around -0.87 days per 1℃on average.The paper concludes that with the warming of climate,the linear trend of FFD variation,as well as its responsiveness to temperature,became more prominent during 1990-2007 than 1963-1989.The data analyzed in this study present a strong biological indicator of climate change in Beijing,and provide further confirmation of previous results from regional and local studies across the Northern Hemisphere.Phenophase variations indicate that the climate is changing rapidly.     

北半球冬季大气环流遥相关型特征与我国区域气候

计算了1951／1952～2002／2003年北半球冬季大气环流遥相关型的强度指数，研究了它们的长期变化和近期特征，指出近10年来WA型的负趋势，PNA型的正趋势还在持续并有所加强。它们的强度突变分别发生于20世纪80年代初(WA型1984年由强转弱)及70年代中(PNA型1976年由弱转强)。还指出，近10年来，亚洲(亚欧)地区的纬向环流强度继续在加强，经向环流强度继续在减弱，大气环流及遥相关型强度的这种变化是中国冬季气候变化的一个重要原因。     

Changing climate states and stability: from Pliocene to present

We present a recently developed method of potential analysis of time series data, which comprises (1) derivation of the number of distinct global states of a system from time series data, and (2) derivation of the potential coefficients describing the location and stability of these states, using the unscented Kalman filter (UKF). We test the method on artificial data and then apply it to climate records spanning progressively shorter time periods from 5.3?Myr ago to the recent observational record. We detect various changes in the number and stability of states in the climate system. The onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation roughly 3?Myr BP is detected as the appearance of a second climate state. During the last ice age in Greenland, there is a bifurcation representing the loss of stability of the warm interstadial state, followed by the total loss of this state around 25?kyr BP. The Holocene is generally characterized by a single stable climate state, especially at large scales. However, in the historical record, at the regional scale, the European monthly temperature anomaly temporarily exhibits a second, highly degenerate (unstable) state during the latter half of the eighteenth century. At the global scale, temperature is currently undergoing a forced movement of a single stable state rather than a bifurcation. The method can be applied to a wide range of geophysical systems with time series of sufficient length and temporal resolution, to look for bifurcations and their precursors.