Comets and climate

No connection between comets and climate has been proposed until now; here, we show that such a connection exists. We use a model to evaluate the shadowing effect due to cometary dust released by comet 1P/Halley in the inner solar system. We find that comet Halley has left a detectable fingerprint in the climate records of the last two millennia. The print shows up as a periodic cooling of the order of 0.08 °C. This temperature drop is comparable with other natural fluctuations. The finding will add a brick to our knowledge of the climate system and could allow to improve our predictive capacity of future climate.     

Dust and Gas in D/Shoemaker-Levy 9

The spectacular impact of D/Shoemaker-Levy 9 on Jupiter in July 1994 was observed all over the world and from space, leading to many new and exciting clues to the physics of the Jovian atmosphere. However, what do we know of the impactor? There were only 16 months to study D/Shoemaker-Levy 9 between its discovery and destruction. D/Shoemaker-Levy 9 was designated as a comet at time of discovery. Then, due to the apparent absence of volatiles usually present in comets it was repeatedly discussed whether D/Shoemaker-Levy 9 was a comet or an asteroid. Although its true nature can still not be named unambigeously, a cometary origin is indicated from the observational evidence. The results of the dust analysis are consistent with D/Shoemaker-Levy 9 being a typical comet and so far this is not contradicted by any observation.     

Observation and interpretation of cometary low frequency waves

The first observations of cometary wave activity were carried out in 1985/1986 by several space missions (ICE, VEGAs 1 and 2, Suisei, Sakigake, Giotto) in the environments of comets Giacobini-Zinner and Halley. The interpretation of thesein situ field (and particle) measurements fostered investigations on (among other topics) wave generation that, leaving aside the inherently nonlinear (but related) problem of the eventual formation of a cometary bow shock wave, explored the free energy available in two specific features of the velocity distributions of the newborn particle populations: their parallel (with respect to the IMF direction) drift in the solar wind frame and perpendicular ring-like organization. Analytical and simulation works looked into the influence of the solar wind and cometary newborn parameters on the instabilities and the ensuing, or associated (as evidenced by wave observations), nonlinear phenomenology. Comprehensive reviews have described the experimental and theoretical results obtained in this cometary wave research until 1992 and identified outstanding problems warranting further attention. Here, only a cursory revisit to the Giacobini-Zinner/Halley era of low frequency wave observation and interpretation shall be made: rather, attention shall be predominantly focussed on the new implications to cometary wave research of the recent Giotto encounter with comet Grigg-Skjellerup on July 10 of 1992. The three visited comets, starting with their gas production rates, had different characteristics that showed up in thein situ observations. Yet, with the important exception of the Grigg-Skjellerup encounter, the interpretation of the wave activity measurements could be made in terms of common basic generation mechanisms adapted to the relevant properties of the appropriate plasma environment. New aspects emerged in the last Giotto cometary mission: the smaller gas production rates yield a scale length for the neutral gas density that is not (much) larger than the gyration distance of a heavy newborn ion (estimated by the product of the solar wind speed and the ion cyclotron period). As a consequence of this inhomogeneity, the velocity distribution of the heavy newborn ions exhibits gyrophase organization, i.e. nongyrotropy. This new source of free energy, albeit briefly mentioned in a few studies preceding the Grigg-Skjellerup mission, was not investigated in the context of the Giacobini-Zinner and Halley encounters. Since the last Giotto observations strongly suggest that nongyrotropy plays a prominent role in wave generation as the comet Gigg-Skjellerup nucleus is approached and its stability characteristics have only seldomly been analyzed, the review shall emphasize the wave generation capabilities of particle populations with gyrophase organization.     

Grigg-Skjellerup彗星新生离子激发低频电磁波性质

本文运用磁场的最小方差分析法和磁场-电子密度的相关分析法分析了欧洲空间局Giotto飞船对P／Grigg-Skjellerup（简称G-S）彗星弓激波附近磁场和电子能流的部分观测数据．结果表明彗星附近存在大量的频率靠近新生水族离子回旋频率的波动,它们是由彗星新生水族离子环流激发的低频左旋电磁波．波在近似平行于磁场方向传播,斜传播角小于15°．电子数据和磁场数据相关分析表明即使在离彗星很远的地方仍然存在压缩波．     

Volatile element influx on Venus from cometary impacts

Several different reasonably concordant methods of estimating the flux of carbonaceous chondrite and cometary material (both meteoric dust and comet nuclei) through the inner solar system are shown to imply that such sources may have a dominant effect on the present abundances of several important constituents of the atmosphere of Venus. In particular, the entire supply of hydrogen compounds on Venus may owe its origin to infall of such material. The escape rate of atomic hydrogen may be in approximate balance with the influx rate of hydrogen in the forms of bound meteoritic water and cometary ices. I suggest that the atmospheric inventories of H, S, Cl, F and possibly N on Venus are provided by infall, and need not be endogenous to Venus.     

Sublimation-driven evolution of the local radius and the moment of inertia of a long-period comet

In this paper we intend to analyze how the sublimation of ice from cometary nuclei affects changes of the moments of inertia. Our aim is to show general trends for different orientations of cometary nucleus’ rotation axis. Thus we apply numerical model of a hypothetical homogeneous and initially spherical nucleus composed of water ice and dust. As an example we present simulations for a model comet of the orbital elements and the nucleus size the same as determined for C/1995 O1 Hale-Bopp, a widely analyzed long-period comet. We calculated water production from the nucleus and changes of the shape (initially spherical) and of the moment of inertia versus time. Simulations are performed for the full range (0–90°) of inclinations I of the rotation axis. The second paramater related to the orientation of the rotation axis is the argument Φ (0–360°). The heat conductivity of the nucleus spans over the vast range, 0.04–4 W m⁻¹ K⁻1.     

Trans-neptunian objects

Since the periodicity of comets was first established by Halley, the question of their origin has fascinated astronomers. It is clear that they have to be stored somewhere, since their life time in the inner Solar System is short. Around 1950 the idea emerged that cometary nuclei could be stored in a belt beyond Neptune, and this belt became known as the Kuiper Belt or perhaps more fairly the Kuiper-Edgeworth Belt. In the late 80's optical searches for the belt became numerous and in 1992, the first detection (of 1992 QB1) was made. At the time of writing 39 objects have been discovered and the current state of knowledge regarding these "Kuiper-Edgeworth Belt", or Trans-Neptunian, Objects is reviewed here.     

Global seismicity of 2002: centroid–moment-tensor solutions for 1034 earthquakes

Centroid–moment-tensor solutions are presented for 1034 earthquakes that occurred during 2002. The solutions are obtained using the method of Dziewonski et al. [Dziewonski, A.M., Chou, T.-A., Woodhouse, J.H., 1981. Determination of earthquake source parameters from waveform data for studies of global and regional seismicity. J. Geophys. Res. 86, 2825–2852] and applying corrections for aspherical Earth structure represented by the whole-mantle shear-velocity model SH8/U4L8 of Dziewonski and Woodward [Dziewonski, A.M., Woodward, R.L., Acoustic imaging at the planetary scale, in: Emert, H., Harjes, H.-P. (Eds.), Acoustical Imaging, vol. 19. Plenum Press, New York, 1992, pp. 785–797]. The model of anelastic attenuation of Durek and Ekström [Durek, J.J., Ekström, G., 1996. A radial model of anelasticity consistent with long-period surface wave attenuation. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 86, 144–158] is used to predict the decay of the waveforms. The focal mechanisms of the largest, or otherwise significant, earthquakes of 2002 are reviewed.     

Dr David Kerridge

The Group Achievement Award goes to the SCUBA team of W K Gear, W S Holland, E I Robson, C R Cunningham, J F Lightfoot, T Jenness, R J Ivison, J A Stevens, P A R Ade, M J Griffin, W D Duncan, J A Murphy and D A Naylor.     

太湖1889洪水年的流域水文模拟

由于受到水文观测资料时间短的限制,目前难以认识百年遇机率的极端洪水.为此,本文根据19世纪末历史文献的洪水灾害记录,利用流域水文模型,对太湖1889洪水年的流域产流、入湖汇流等水文特征和过程进行模拟.本研究设计了三套模拟实验:首先在现代气候控制实验基础上对1988-2002年时间系列和特大洪水年进行水文模拟和模型率定校验;其次,采用长江下游19世纪末的气候观测资料驱动,对极端年份1889年逐日洪水过程模拟;最后,为减少1 a洪水年模拟的不确定性,还采用蒙特卡罗Bootstrap法模拟了15 a的流域气候场,在5475 d样本下进行特征年份的水文模拟.模拟结果表明,1889年洪水期间产流在当年6月底达到最大,1%频率的径流深达8.6 mm/d,95%CI的误差在-2.94～3.26 mm/d之间.汇入太湖径流同期达到最大,1%频率的洪水流量达到1286.9 m3/s,95%CI的误差在-128.3～165.7 m3/s之间.根据洪水Log-Normal概率分布,计算1889洪水年的重现期为149 a.经Bootstrap法对误差置信区的模拟,95%CI检验在70～175 a间的重现期可信.该研究为延长20世纪洪水序列、拓展对百年时间尺度的特大洪水的认识提供了动力学模拟方面的科学依据.     

A very public fireball

J C Bridges, J P Schwanethal, V K Pearson, M D Paton, R C Greenwood, J S Watson and G H Morgan report on a determination of orbital elements of a fireball seen over Britain and Northern France.     

Prediction of carbon exchanges between China terrestrial ecosystem and atmosphere in 21st century

The projected changes in carbon exchange between China terrestrial ecosystem and the atmosphere and vegetation and soil carbon storage during the 21st century were investigated using an atmos-phere-vegetation interaction model (AVIM2). The results show that in the coming 100 a, for SRES B2 scenario and constant atmospheric CO2 concentration, the net primary productivity (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystem in China will be decreased slowly, and vegetation and soil carbon storage as well as net ecosystem productivity (NEP) will also be decreased. The carbon sink for China terrestrial ecosystem in the beginning of the 20th century will become totally a carbon source by the year of 2020, while for B2 scenario and changing atmospheric CO2 concentration, NPP for China will increase continuously from 2.94 GtC·a?1 by the end of the 20th century to 3.99 GtC·a?1 by the end of the 21st century, and vegetation and soil carbon storage will increase to 110.3 GtC. NEP in China will keep rising during the first and middle periods of the 21st century, and reach the peak around 2050s, then will decrease gradually and approach to zero by the end of the 21st century.     

Episodic tectonic plate reorganizations driven by mantle convection

Periods of relatively uniform plate motion were interrupted several times throughout the Cenozoic and Mesozoic by rapid plate reorganization events [R. Hey, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull. 88 (1977) 1404-1420; P.A. Rona, E.S. Richardson, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 40 (1978) 1-11; D.C. Engebretson, A. Cox, R.G. Gordon, Geol. Soc. Am. Spec. Pap. 206 (1985); R.G. Gordon, D.M. Jurdy, J. Geophys. Res. 91 (1986) 12389-12406; D.A. Clague, G.B. Dalrymple, US Geol. Surv. Prof. Pap. 1350 (1987) 5-54; J.M. Stock, P. Molnar, Nature 325 (1987) 495-499; C. Lithgow-Bertelloni, M.A. Richards, Geophys. Res. Lett. 22 (1995) 1317-1320; M.A. Richards, C. Lithgow-Bertelloni, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 137 (1996) 19-27; C. Lithgow-Bertelloni, M.A. Richards, Rev. Geophys. 36 (1998) 27-78]. It has been proposed that changes in plate boundary forces are responsible for these events [M.A. Richards, C. Lithgow-Bertelloni, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 137 (1996) 19-27; C. Lithgow-Bertelloni, M.A. Richards, Rev. Geophys. 36 (1998) 27-78]. We present an alternative hypothesis: convection-driven plate motions are intrinsically unstable due to a buoyant instability that develops as a result of the influence of plates on an internally heated mantle. This instability, which has not been described before, is responsible for episodic reorganizations of plate motion. Numerical mantle convection experiments demonstrate that high-Rayleigh number convection with internal heating and surface plates is sufficient to induce plate reorganization events, changes in plate boundary forces, or plate geometry, are not required.     

Reply to Lowe,D.J., Wilson,C.J.N., Newnham,R.M., Hogg,A.G. comment on Grapes, R., Rieser,U., Wang,N., 2010. Optical luminescence dating of a loess section containing a critical tephra marker horizon,SW North Island of New Zealand. Quaternary Geochronology 5, doi:10.1016/j.quageo.2009.01.004, 2010

The arguments presented by Lowe et al. [Lowe, D.J., Wilson, C.J.N., Newham, R.M., Hogg, A.G., 2010. Dating the Kawakawa/Oruanui eruption: comment on “optical luminescence dating of a loess section containing a critical tephra marker horizon, SW North Island of New Zealand” by R. Grapes et al. Quaternary Geochronology 5(4), 493–496] against our IRSL results, which suggested that the widespread Kawakawa tephra (KkT) could be considerably younger than the generally accepted 27.1 ka cal BP age, are unsustainable. We discuss the points raised by Lowe et al., in terms of: 1) Presentation and analysis of luminescence ages (comparison between reporting and error margins of luminescence and ¹⁴C ages, statistical treatment of age data); 2) Possible sources of error (“upbuilding pedogenesis” and its affect on U and Th distribution in loess, effect of biotubation, variation of K in loess, single grain luminescence dating of quartz, probability of luminescence age underestimation in dating tephra); 3) Stratigraphic and paleoenvironmental considerations (ages of tephras overlying KkT, timing of the end of Ohakea loess deposition and its distribution; 4) Radiocarbon-based ages of KkT (problems with the currently accepted ¹⁴C 27.1 ka cal BP age of KkT). We stress that our study was not to establish a new benchmark age for the KkT, but to open debate about the currently accepted benchmark age of the KkT, which we deem to be erroneous.     

The 3.26–3.24 Ga Barberton asteroid impact cluster: Tests of tectonic and magmatic consequences,Pilbara Craton,Western Australia

The location in the Barberton Greenstone Belt (Kaapvaal Craton) of ∼3.26–3.24 Ga asteroid impact ejecta units at, and immediately above, a sharp break between a > 12 km-thick mafic–ultramafic volcanic crust (Onverwacht Group ∼3.55–3.26 Ga, including the ∼3.298 > 3.258 Ga Mendon Formation) and a turbidite–felsic volcanic rift-facies association (Fig Tree Group ∼3.258–3.225 Ga), potentially represents the first documented example of cause–effect relations between extraterrestrial bombardment and major tectonic and igneous events [D.R. Lowe, G.R. Byerly, F. Asaro, F.T. Kyte, Geological and geochemical record of 3400 Ma old terrestrial meteorite impacts, Science 245 (1989) 959–962; D.R. Lowe, G.R. Byerly, F.T. Kyte, A. Shukolyukov, F. Asaro, A. Krull, Spherule beds 3.47–3.34 Ga-old in the Barberton greenstone belt, South Africa: a record of large meteorite impacts and their influence on early crustal and biological evolution, Astrobiology 3 (2003) 7–48; A.Y. Glikson, The astronomical connection of terrestrial evolution: crustal effects of post-3.8 Ga mega-impact clusters and evidence for major 3.2 ± 0.1 Ga bombardment of the Earth–Moon system, J. Geodyn. 32 (2001) 205–229]. Here we correlate this boundary with a contemporaneous break and peak magmatic and faulting events in the Pilbara Craton, represented by the truncation of a 3.255–3.235 Ga-old volcanic sequence (Sulphur Springs Group—SSG) by a turbidite-banded iron formation–felsic volcanic association (Pincunah Hill Formation, basal Gorge Creek Group). These events are accompanied by ∼3.252–3.235 Ga granitoids (Cleland plutonic suite). The top of the komatiite–tholeiite–rhyolite sequence of the SSG is associated with a marker chert defined at 3.238 ± 3–3.235 ± 3 Ga, abruptly overlain by an olistostrome consisting of mega-clasts of felsic volcanics, chert and siltstone up to 250 × 150 m-large, intercalated with siliciclastic sedimentary rocks and felsic volcanics (Pincunah Hill Formation-basal Gorge Creek Group-GCG [R. M. Hill, Stratigraphy, structure and alteration of hanging wall sedimentary rocks at the Sulphur Springs volcanogenic massive sulphide (VMS) prospect, east Pilbara Craton, Western Australia. B.Sc Hon. Thesis, University of Western Australia (1997) 67 pp.; M.J. Van Kranendonk, A.H. Hickman, R.H. Smithies, D.R. Nelson, Geology and tectonic evolution of the Archaean north Pilbara terrain, Pilbara Craton, Western Australia, Econ. Geol. 97 (2002) 695–732; M.J. Van Kranendonk, Geology of the North Shaw 1 : 100 000 Sheet. Geological Survey Western Australia 1 : 100 000 Geological Series (2000) 86 pp., R. Buick, C.A.W. Brauhart, P. Morant, J.R. Thornett, J.G. Maniew, J.G. Archibald, M.G. Doepel, I.R. Fletcher, A.L. Pickard, J.B. Smith, M.B. Barley, N.J. McNaughton, D.I. Groves, Geochronology and stratigraphic relations of the Sulphur Springs Group and Strelley Granite: a temporally distinct igneous province in the Archaean Pilbara Craton, Australia, Precambrian Res. 114 (2002) 87–120]). The structure and scale of the olistostrome, not seen elsewhere in the Pilbara Craton, is interpreted in terms of intense faulting and rifting, supported by topographic relief represented by deep incision of overlying arenites (Corboy Formation) into underlying units [M.J. Van Kranendonk, Geology of the North Shaw 1 : 100 000 Sheet. Geological Survey Western Australia 1 : 100 000 Geological Series (2000) 86 pp.]. The age overlaps between (1) 3.255 ± 4–3.235 ± 3 Ga peak igneous activity represented by the SSG and the Cleland plutonic suite (Pilbara Craton) and the 3.258 ± 3 Ga S2 Barberton impact unit, and (2) 3.235 ± 3 Ga top SSG break and associated faulting and the 3.243 ± 4 S3–S4 Barberton impact units may not be accidental. Should correlations between the Barberton S2–S4 impact units and magmatic and tectonic events in the Pilbara Craton be confirmed, they would imply impact-triggered reactivation of mantle convection, crustal anatexis, faulting and strong vertical movements in Archaean granite–greenstone terrains associated with large asteroid impacts, culminating in transformation from sima-dominated crust to continental rift environments.     

Ra or Ra/Ba dating of Holocene volcanic rocks: application to Mt. Etna and Merapi volcanoes

This paper shows how ²²⁶Ra–²³⁰Th disequilibria can be used to date Holocene volcanic rocks from some well selected volcanoes. A systematic study of these disequilibria on historical or well-dated volcanic samples is indeed first required to test the applicability of this method. Two examples are described here to illustrate its potential. In the case of Mt. Etna, the good correlation observed between (²²⁶Ra)₀ activities at the time of eruption and Th contents in lava flows from the last two millennia [M. Condomines, J.C. Tanguy, V. Michaud, Magma dynamics at Mt. Etna: constraints from U–Th–Ra–Pb radioactive disequilibria and Sr isotopes in historical lavas, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 132 (1995) 25–41] is used to infer the ages of several newly analysed lava flows. The calculated ages are in good agreement with those deduced from the archaeomagnetic curve describing the variation of the geomagnetic field direction in southern Italy [J.C. Tanguy, I. Bucur, J.F.C. Thompson, Geomagnetic secular variation in Sicily and revised ages of historic lavas from Mt. Etna, Nature 318 (1985) 453–455, J.C. Tanguy, M. Le Goff, V. Chillemi, A. Paiotti, C. Principe, S. La Delfa, G. Patane, Variation séculaire de la direction du champ géomagnétique enregistrée par les laves de l'Etna et du Vésuve pendant les deux derniers millénaires, C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris 329 (1999) 557–564, J.C. Tanguy, M. Le Goff, C. Principe, S. Arrighi, V. Chillemi, A. Paiotti, S. La Delfa, G. Patane, Archaeomagnetic dating of Mediterranean volcanics of the last 2100 years: validity and limits. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 211 (2003) 111–124]. We also present a whole set of new U-series data on historical, recent, and older samples from Merapi (Indonesia), and show that the (²²⁶Ra)/Ba ratio has probably maintained a quasi-steady state value during at least the past four millennia, and can be used to infer the (²²⁶Ra)₀/Ba ratio of old volcanics at the time of eruption, and thus their ages. Comparison with ¹⁴C ages available on three samples [R. Gertisser, J. Keller, Temporal variations in magma composition at Merapi volcano (Central Java, Indonesia): magmatic cycles during the past 2000 years of explosive activity, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 123 (2003) 1–23] shows an excellent agreement. These dating methods, based on the post-eruptive decrease of ²²⁶Ra excesses can be confidently used to date young rocks on both volcanoes, an important step to infer their recent eruptive history and magmatic evolution. It also opens the possibility to extend the geomagnetic field variation curve back into the past few millennia. The promising results obtained in this work should encourage new systematic U-series studies to test the applicability of such methods to other permanently active volcanoes showing ²²⁶Ra excesses.     

华北地区第三、 四活动期平静幕后期中强地震活动与未来强震

本文通过分析、 研究华北地区第三、 四活动期各平静幕后期的中强地震活动特征, 认为: ① 华北地区第三、 四活动期9个活跃幕中有7个在首发强震前3年内发生中强地震, 其中第四活动期1～4活跃幕首发强震前2年内都发生了中强地震, 未来第5活跃幕首发强震前, 以发生中强地震作为序幕的可能性较大; ② 华北地区平静幕后期的中强地震活动, 对其后活跃幕首发强震在时间和地点上有一定指示作用。 由于华北地区可能即将进入新的强震活跃幕, 该研究对判断华北地区未来强震趋势具有实用意义。     

Cometary science at the launch of Rosetta

The launch of ESA's Rosetta mission, to orbit and land on a comet, has been postponed and the target of the mission may have to change. Uncertainty over the mission provoked extra interest at the RAS discussion meeting in December 2002, as Geraint Jones and Simeon Barber report.     

山西奇村水汞异常干扰因素分析

2002年5月，山西忻州奇村水汞观测出现短期高值异常变化，变化幅度是正常值的10倍左右。从变化时间上分析，比较好地对应了2002年9月3日太原ML50地震，但通过调查和对比观测等分析。认为此异常系仪器不稳定、试剂污染及所配试剂用的蒸馏水不符合规范要求造成的。     

Biaxial effects in modelling earthquake response of R/C structures

Recent studies reveal that R/C structural members subjected to biaxial flexure due to two-dimensional earthquake excitation can deform much more than would be predicted by conventional one-dimensional response analysis. The biaxial flexure may therefore have a significant effect on the dynamic collapse process of structures subjected to intense ground motions. The present paper is intended to develop a new formulation of the two-dimensional restoring force model of R/C columns acted upon by biaxial bending moments, and to discuss the dynamic response properties of R/C structures. The model considered is a two-dimensional extension of various non-linear models for one-dimensional response analysis, including the degrading trilinear stiffness model which is one of the simpler idealizations of the restoring force characteristics of flexural-failure-type R/C structures. The modelling validity is then examined by comparison with experimental data on the biaxial bending behaviour of R/C columns. Calculations are made to study the role of different system properties on the influence of inelastic biaxial bending on the dynamic structural response. It is shown that the inelastic biaxial effect is generally significant and, in some cases, critical in the case of R/C structures with stiffness-degrading properties, while the effect is not so important for the non-degrading inelastic cases.