中国海高分辨率业务化风暴潮模式的业务化预报检验

国家海洋环境预报中心建立了中国海高分辨率风暴潮数值预报模式,模式在水平分辨率和网格的嵌套方面都较以往的业务化模式有改进和提高.自2003年起将模式投入业务化运行以来,连续三年共对11个台风风暴潮过程进行了跟踪预报,并将数值预报结果与实测资料相对比.本文将对预报模式三年来的预报结果进行检验.     

平潭海域精细化三维温盐流业务化数值预报系统

根据平潭附近海域实际需求和地理区位特点,研发了三维温、盐、流高分辨率业务化数值预报系统,对该系统采用的模式、配置、预报结果验证和业务化运行等情况进行了详细介绍。该系统基于ROMS海流模式,采用正交曲线网格和网格嵌套技术;建立了包含数据预处理、温盐流预报和预报产品后处理等子程序的业务化数值预报系统。结果表明:模式预报产品具有较高精度,整个业务流程运行在30 min之内,系统运行稳定,达到业务化预报的要求。     

北部湾海区风暴潮数值模型和数值模拟

北部湾是一个半封闭的超浅海。本文在数值试验的基础上，提出了一个研究该海域台风风暴潮的数值模型。数值模式为二维深度平均流模型，采用嵌套细网格技术，细网格分辨率为沿经纬方向０．１°，细网格边界值由粗网格提供。台风风场计算采用Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ模型风场．模式方程组的数值解由交替方向隐式（ＡＤＩ）方法积分得到。本文对该海域最常见的两种台风移行所引起的风暴潮进行了数值模拟。与几个潮汐观测站的增水记录比较，计算结果基本上反映了台风引起的水位变化，对研究和模拟该海域台风风暴潮是适用的，可用于该海域风暴潮数值预报试验。     

福建省智能网格海洋预报业务系统实现与应用

研发了福建省智能网格海洋预报业务系统,该系统覆盖西北太平洋海域,在福建沿岸海域、台湾海峡及周边海域、远海海域空间分辨率分别达到0.5 km、5 km和10 km,与传统站点预报和大面预报相比,该系统在时空上预报精细化程度更优.福建省智能网格海洋预报业务系统已成为福建省海洋预报台的主要业务系统,至今已业务化稳定运行1a.     

积云参数化的台风移动预报模式的试验

一、引 言 日本气象厅使用在业务上的台风移动预报模式是Ookochi于1978年研制的。这个模式有两个缺点,即移动性的多嵌套网格系统和规定的加热场。这样,多嵌套网格系统很难与积云参数化相配置,并且难以一次模拟较多的台风,规定的加热场不能真实地描述对流加热情 况。因此,我们研制了一个含有积云参数化的简单的系统模式。为了检验这个模式的性能,使之作为一个业务预报模式,我们进行了实时资料的试验,由新模式所作出的预报将详细地与以前使用的多嵌套网格系统所作出的预报进行比较。     

一个东海嵌套网格台风暴潮数值预报模式的研制与应用

建立了一个覆盖东海的两重嵌套网格高分辨率台风暴潮数值预报模式.粗、细网格模式分辨率分别为6'和2'.两套网格的嵌套采用单向松弛套网格技术,即在细网格的内边界附近建立了一个“过渡区”,对预报的物理量进行松弛,使粗、细网格模式变量逐步过渡,避免了边界附近寄生波的产生,从而增加了模式的稳定性.利用该模式,对显着影响东中国海地区的6次风暴潮过程进行了后报和预报试验.与观测资料比较,数值结果令人满意.     

WaveWatch Ⅲ和SWAN模型嵌套技术在业务化海浪预报系统中的应用及检验

根据钓鱼岛海域海监巡航执法保障预报、重点海洋安全保障目标精细化预报等海浪业务化预报工作的新需求,基于WRF海面风场预报模型,利用结构网格海浪模型Wave WatchⅢ和非结构网格海浪模型SWAN(Simulating Waves Nearshore)的嵌套计算,建立一套适用于东海区和上海近海的海浪数值预报系统。通过不同数值实验,证明此系统的稳定性和时效性。利用观测数据对连续2个月的有效波高值的预报结果进行检验,结果表明:24小时预报平均绝对误差在0.3 m以下;48小时预报平均绝对误差在0.5 m以下;72小时预报平均绝对误差在0.7 m以下,且误差极值主要是由台风过程引起,但预报趋势仍值得参考。对2次台风过程采用不同风场源数据进行对比试验,结果显示采用实况路径的后报风场,海浪预报精度明显改善。对于近岸区域采用嵌套计算的SWAN模型预报结果比Wave Watch III模型预报结果精度显著提高,证明建立的海浪数值预报系统在满足"稳定性"和"时效性"的基础上,各尺度和分辨率的预报产品"准确性"也能得到保证。     

WaveWatch III 和SWAN模型嵌套技术在业务化海浪预报系统中的应用及检验

根据钓鱼岛海域海监巡航执法保障预报、重点海洋安全保障目标精细化预报等海浪业务化预报工作的新需求,基于 WRF 海面风场预报模型,利用结构网格海浪模型WaveWatch 芋和非结构网格海浪模型SWAN （Simulating Waves Nearshore） 的嵌套计算,建立一套适用于东海区和上海近海的海浪数值预报系统。通过不同数值实验,证明此系统的稳定性和时效性。 利用观测数据对连续2 个月的有效波高值的预报结果进行检验,结果表明：24小时预报平均绝对误差在0.3 m以下;48 小时 预报平均绝对误差在0.5 m以下;72 小时预报平均绝对误差在0.7 m以下,且误差极值主要是由台风过程引起,但预报趋势 仍值得参考。对2次台风过程采用不同风场源数据进行对比试验,结果显示采用实况路径的后报风场,海浪预报精度明显改 善。对于近岸区域采用嵌套计算的SWAN模型预报结果比WaveWatch III 模型预报结果精度显著提高,证明建立的海浪数值 预报系统在满足“稳定性”和“时效性”的基础上,各尺度和分辨率的预报产品“准确性”也能得到保证。     

渤海局部海域风暴潮漫滩计算模式──ADI干湿网格模式在渤海局部海域风暴潮漫滩计算中的应用

采用ＡＤＩ干湿网格模式和一种大小区嵌套式的数值计算格式，考虑了天文潮与风暴潮的非线性耦合效应，对渤海局部海域的风暴潮漫滩进行了数值模拟。模拟结果与实测结果符合良好，证实ＡＤＩ干湿网格模式对海湾风暴潮漫滩计算的可行性。指出ＡＤＩ干湿网格模式对预报淹水受灾范围具有应用价值。     

台湾海峡及近岸区域精细化海浪数值预报系统

基于第三代海浪模式,采用四重嵌套网格,建立了WaveWatchⅢ和SWAN嵌套(方案一)和SWAN自嵌套(方案二)两套台湾海峡及其近岸区域海浪预报系统.通过对一次台风过程3天和7天的海浪预报实验,对两套预报系统作了检验.结果表明,方案一的3天和7天的预报误差分别为14.78％和19.53％,方案二的分别为10.38％和15.85％.两套系统的预报精度均能达到海浪精细化业务化预报要求.     

渤海湾水位、流场的一个数值预报模式

本文利用普林斯顿海洋模式(POM),建立了渤、黄海风增水预报模式和渤海湾水位海流预报模式;利用正交曲线网格提高重点区域的分辨率;采用美国海洋大气局(NOAA)全球预报风场和气压场作为模式表面强迫场,将计算域边界上的天文潮预报值与风增水模式预报的余水位相叠加构建模式的边界条件,在正压条件下,模拟了渤海湾2002年的水位流场过程。结果表明,模式能够较好地再现计算域内天文潮和综合水位的预报,域内10个潮位站模式与实测分析的m1和M2分潮的振幅与迟角差均不超过5.1cm和6.3°,15个潮流站模式与实测分析的m1和M2分潮流的振幅与迟角差均不超过7.5cm/s和15.8°,模式预报的水位值与塘沽站实测值非常接近,预报精度较单纯的天文潮预报有明显提高。     

三维斜压台风模式 Ⅱ.预报试验

一种斜压多重移动套网格台网模式在国家海洋环境预报中心已被应用于海洋环境预报。本文第一部分已描述了模式方程组和数值方法。本文继续概述模式网格、变分调整初始化和预报试验结果。最外粗网格域固定,内部细网格域随台风中心轨迹移动。模式中,粗细网格变量采用双向耦合。平衡方程和方程,理想台风场和变分调整方案被用于台风模式初始化。一种简单而有效的资料同化方法,即用第6h台风报和弱约束变分原理调整初始场,被应用于提高预报结果。最后本文给出预报试验结果。预报误差统计显示本模式对台风路径预报具有相当能力,而且可以提供海面风和气压场较好的预报。本模式已经与海浪模式联结,得到满意的波高预报结果。     

Implementation and application of a nested numerical storm surge forecast model in the East China Sea

A nested numerical storm surge forecast model for the East China Sea is developed. Aone-way relaxing nest method is used to exchange the information between coarse grid and fine grid. In the inner boundary of the fine grid model a transition area is set up to relax the forecast variables. This ensures that the forecast variables of the coarse model may transit to those of fine grid gradually, which enhances the model stability. By using this model, a number of hindcasts and forecast are performed for six severe storm surges caused by tropical cyclones in the East China Sea. The results show good agreement with the observations.     

海南岛近岸养殖区台风浪预报技术研究

随着海南深水网箱养殖规模的不断扩大,海浪精细化预报的需求越来越紧迫。以海南岛周边海域为目标区域,基于近岸海洋模式ADCIRC(Advancedcirculationmodel)和海浪模式SWAN(Simulating WavesNearshore),建立了海南岛近岸养殖区台风浪数值预报系统。该系统采用非结构高分辨率网格,近岸分辨率达到了100m。选取2014年第9号超强台风"威马逊"(RAMMASUN)进行针对海南岛近岸养殖区的台风浪数值模拟后报。模拟结果与实测数据较为吻合。采用全球预报系统GFS(Global Forecast System)风场和气压场数据作为驱动场对2018年7月的一次热带风暴过程进行预报,48小时、24小时预报的有效波高和实测结果比较平均相对误差分别为20.75%和17.0%。总体来说,该模型的预报精度可以满足近岸养殖区台风浪预报业务的需求。     

台风风暴潮异模式集合数值预报技术研究及应用

台风风暴潮数值预报的准确性在很大程度上取决于台风路径预报和强度预报的精度以及风暴潮预报模型的计算精度。目前,国际上24/48 h台风路径预报平均误差分别约为120/210 km左右[1],对于走向异常的台风误差更大;更有,根据单一的台风路径和单族的风暴潮数值预报模式并不能保证获得可靠的风暴潮预报结果。考虑多重网格法原理具有在疏密不同的网格层上进行迭代以达到平滑不同频率的误差分量,使得计算快速收敛,精度提高的特性。在前期研究基础上基于业务化高分辨率(结构网格/有限差分算法)和精细化(非结构网格/有限元算法)台风风暴潮集合数值预报模型构建多模型台风风暴潮集合数值预报系统。采用"非同族"模型进行集合预报很大程度上降低了误差相似遗传的可能性。应用该方法对典型台风风暴潮过程进行了试应用,试报结果表明:该方法对风暴潮增、减水预报效果高于单一集合预报,具有一定的应用前景。     

A generalized coordinate ocean model and a comparison of the bottom boundary layer dynamics in terrain-following and in z-level grids

Sensitivity studies with a new generalized coordinate ocean model are performed in order to compare the behavior of bottom boundary layers (BBLs) when terrain-following (sigma or combined sigma and z-level) or z-level vertical grids are used, but most other numerical aspects remain unchanged. The model uses a second-order turbulence closure scheme that provides surface and BBL mixing and results in a quite realistic climatology and deep water masses after 100 year simulations with a coarse resolution (1° × 1°) basin-scale terrain-following grid. However, with the same turbulence scheme but using a z-level grid, the model was unable to produce dense water masses in the deep ocean. The latter is a known problem for coarse resolution z-level models, unless they include highly empirical BBL schemes.A set of dense water overflow experiments with high-resolution grids (10 and 2.5 km) are used to investigate the influence of model parameters such as horizontal diffusivity, vertical mixing, horizontal resolution, and vertical resolution on the simulation of bottom layers for the different coordinate systems. Increasing horizontal diffusivity causes a thinner BBL and a bottom plume that extends further downslope in a sigma grid, but causes a thicker BBL and limited downslope plume extension in a z-level grid. A major difference in the behavior of the BBL in the two grids is due to the larger vertical mixing generated by the turbulence scheme over the step-like topography in the z-level grid, compared to a smaller vertical mixing and a more stably stratified BBL in the sigma grid. Therefore, the dense plume is able to maintain its water mass better and penetrates farther downslope in the sigma grid than in the z-level grid. Increasing horizontal and vertical resolution in the z-level grid converges the results toward those obtained by a much coarser resolution sigma coordinate grid, but some differences remain due to the basic differences in the mixing process in the BBL.     

Sea surface temperature 1871-2099 in 38 cells in the Caribbean region

Sea surface temperature (SST) data with monthly resolution are provided for 38 cells in the Caribbean Sea and Bahamas region, plus Bermuda. These series are derived from the HadISST1 data set for historical time (1871-1999) and from the HadCM3 coupled climate model for predicted SST (1950-2099). Statistical scaling of the forecast data sets are performed to produce confluent SST series according to a now established method. These SST series are available for download. High water temperatures in 1998 killed enormous amounts of corals in tropical seas, though in the Caribbean region the effects at that time appeared less marked than in the Indo-Pacific. However, SSTs are rising in accordance with world-wide trends and it has been predicted that temperature will become increasingly important in this region in the near future. Patterns of SST rise within the Caribbean region are shown, and the importance of sub-regional patterns within this biologically highly interconnected area are noted.     

Improvement of short-term sea ice forecast in the southern Okhotsk Sea

In this study, a numerical model of 7-day forecast of sea ice produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency was improved by the following approaches. First, a new ice dynamic model was introduced: the distributed mass/discrete floe model. The model takes account of discrete characteristics of ice floes and well simulates the ice edge location at low computational cost. Secondly, the grid size was reduced to 5 × 5 km for the future high resolution forecasts. Next, the sea surface current data was examined because it significantly influences sea ice movement. We applied two new datasets of HINO and Okhotsk Ocean General Circulation Model (Okhotsk OGCM), which are estimated by numerical simulations, for the 7-day forecast of sea ice. Ice southward speed in January and the whorl formations in February and March were well reproduced with Okhotsk OGCM datasets. Finally, the ocean heat flux at the ice-ocean interface was refined. As a result, we achieved an ice edge error reduction from 30.8 km to 23.5 km.     

Nonlinear Dynamic Behaviors of A Floating Structure in Focused Waves

Floating structures are commonly seen in coastal and offshore engineering. They are often subjected to extreme waves and, therefore, their nonlinear dynamic behaviors are of great concern. In this paper, an in-house CFD code is developed to investigate the accurate prediction of nonlinear dynamic behaviors of a two-dimensional (2-D) box-shaped floating structure in focused waves. Computations are performed by an enhanced Constrained Interpolation Profile (CIP)-based Cartesian grid model, in which a more accurate VOF (Volume of Fluid) method, the THINC/SW scheme (THINC: tangent of hyperbola for interface capturing; SW: Slope Weighting), is used for interface capturing. A focusing wave theory is used for the focused wave generation. The wave component of constant steepness is chosen. Comparisons between predictions and physical measurements show good agreement including body motions and free surface profiles. Although the overall agreement is good, some discrepancies are observed for impact pressure on the superstructure due to water on deck. The effect of grid resolution on the results is checked. With a fine grid, no obvious improvement is seen in the global body motions and impact pressures due to water on deck. It is concluded that highly nonlinear phenomena, such as distorted free surface, large-amplitude body motions, and violent impact flow, have been predicted successfully.