广西壮族自治区碳排放时空规律及达峰预测

广西壮族自治区是国家重要的工业原料供应地,但工业化进程缓慢致使碳排放增长显著,为了积极响应国家减排号召,探究广西历史及未来碳排放规律,以期尽早实现碳达峰目标。由于县级碳排放数据可获取性方面的限制,研究以2003—2017年广西县级碳排放数据,进行广西碳排放量、碳排放强度及碳排放压力的时空变化分析,划分广西不同地域碳排放类型和碳排放情景,并利用可扩展的随机性环境影响模型（STIRPAT）对2022—2035年间广西各地域碳排放类型进行了不同情景下碳排放达峰预测。（1）2003—2017年间,广西碳排放总量、碳排放压力增幅明显,碳排放强度明显降低。碳排放总量变异系数总体趋势平稳,呈高强度变异。（2）依据碳排放总量、强度、压力分级组合,碳排放可分为高总量-高强度-高压力型等6种地域类型,根据广西碳排放影响因素的现状及未来发展趋势划分基准情景、节能情景等7种情景。（3）广西全域达峰预测结果显示,4种节能发展情景均能在2030年前完成达峰目标。不同地域类型达峰预测结果显示高总量-高强度-低压力型与高总量-低强度-低压力型采用节能情景可以实现达峰目标。高总量-高强度-高压力型和高总量-低强度-高压...     

中国人口和富裕对环境的影响

辨明人类活动各因素对环境影响作用的大小,并依此找寻发展的对策是当前可持续发展研究的核心问题之一.分析了IPAT等式在分解环境影响中人文因素的作用;采用生态足迹作为环境影响的测量指标,利用STIRPAT模型,以1999年中国各省市的截面数据为例,分析了人口数量、富裕程度、现代化及经济区位和自然区位对环境影响的具体作用,并在此基础上探讨了中国各省(市)的技术生态效益.结果表明:人口数量是当前环境影响的一个主要驱动因子,环境影响与人口数量近同比例变化,富裕程度或现代化程度增加也将加剧人类对环境的影响.在观测数据范围内,分析结果不支持存在环境Kuznets曲线的观点.最后分析讨论了不支持存在环境Kuznets曲线的原因及STIRPAT模型的优缺点,并指出社会适应性能力可作为下一步深入研究的方向.     

基于夜间灯光和土地利用的珠江流域城市碳排放估算及其时空动态特征研究

揭示珠江流域碳排放时空演化和空间集聚特征,对推进流域地区低碳可持续发展具有重要意义。耦合夜间灯光数据、土地利用数据和能源消费数据构建碳排放估算模型,从流域、城市和网格尺度分析了珠江流域碳排放空间变化趋势,使用探索性时空数据分析和修正引力模型探讨了城市碳排放时空动态变化和空间关联特征。结果表明：珠江流域碳排放总量从2005年的2 9 497万t增长至2019年的31 877万t,东莞、深圳和广州始终是高碳排放城市。网格尺度上高碳排放集聚区以珠江三角洲地区为核心向周边扩张,中上游高碳排放区呈点状分布。珠江流域碳排放存在正向空间相关性,空间交互效应呈下降趋势。时空动态分析显示相邻城市碳排放存在正向协同发展趋势。城市碳排放关联强度均值由5.93增长至18.97,核心节点城市对外辐射能力得到提升,碳排放关联网络结构呈集中化趋势。该方法耦合多源数据开展碳排放估算研究,具有潜在的实用价值,可为碳排放时空动态分析和低碳减排策略制定提供参考。     

基于STIRPAT模型的甘肃省交通碳排放测算及影响因素分析

依据IPCC清单指南的数据, 采用"自上而下"的碳排放计算方法, 对2000-2013年甘肃省交通碳排放进行测算, 对交通碳排放总量、人均量、交通能源碳排放结构及碳排放强度进行动态分析. 基于STIRPAT模型, 运用岭回归统计方法对甘肃省交通碳排放影响因素进行定量分析. 结果表明: 甘肃省交通碳排放总量和人均碳排放量都呈逐年上升的趋势; 煤炭、汽油、柴油、电力四种能源消费的碳排放量占交通碳排放量的绝大部分; 交通碳排放强度呈下降趋势; 城镇化水平、客运周转量、货运周转量、人均GDP每增长1%, 导致交通碳排放分别增长0.221%、0.137%、0.174%和0.125%. 建设低碳交通体系将成为甘肃省交通部门减碳的有效途径.     

中国低碳能源发展潜力及对国家减排贡献的初步研究

科学评估低碳能源发展潜力及对实现国家2020年单位GDP碳排放降低40%～45%目标的贡献,对于制定应对气候变化对策和明确低碳能源发展战略具有重要现实价值.论文设置了中国低碳能源的两种发展情景,并从总量、分品种和分领域评价了两种情景下低碳能源的发展潜力和减排潜力.在此基础上,系统评估了两种情景下中国低碳能源对实现国家减排目标的贡献率.评估结果表明: 1)发展低碳能源对于完成国家减排目标至关重要,在平稳、较快和高速经济增长3种方案下,通过发展低碳能源对实现国家减排目标的最低贡献为12.58%,最高则可达30.25%; 2)经济增长速度越快,低碳能源对实现国家减排目标的贡献越低; 3)若要保持较快的经济增长速度,则一方面要加大对低碳能源的投入,同时则需大力优化经济结构,提高碳生产率,控制碳排放总量的快速增加.     

航线网络碳排放模型及外部性要素分析

面对低碳航空发展态势给航空业带来的巨大挑战以及减排机制的转变,基于外部性视角,首先介绍并分析了航线网络模式影响航空碳排放环境损害的一般模型与碳排放环境损害要素的确定以及灵敏度分析方法的应用,然后系统总结了航线网络碳排放外部性要素——飞行操作阶段(着陆/起飞阶段与巡航阶段)、扇区飞行距离、航线类型、终端区近地空域的影响。现有研究表明:2类航线网络模式碳排放环境损害的方式和规模不同,城市对模式低于中心—辐射模式;航空碳排放环境损害是以上4个要素共同作用形成的,并与机型、航空公司类型等相联系。枢纽机场愈益严重的碳排放环境损害引发了对中心—辐射航线网络模式选择的质疑,当然,基于低碳经济对航线网络模式提出选择与调整的建议也需要考虑腹地市场问题。     

城市降雨径流控制LID BMPs规划方法及案例

借鉴国外城市降雨径流控制的理念和实践,通过对国内外城市降雨径流低影响开发型最佳管理措施（LID BMPs）研究和分析,提出了城市降雨径流控制LID BMPs规划方法体系。选择广东省环境保护职业技术学院佛山校区为研究区域,以SUSTAIN系统作为规划支持工具,在适用LID BMPs措施筛选的基础上,进行了LID BMPs措施的选址、布局研究。设计了开发前情景、开发基础情景、经济适用型BMPs情景（情景1）和功效最大化BMPs情景（情景2）4种不同的情景方案,进行降雨径流量（总径流量和峰值流量）和径流水质（SS、COD、TN、TP）的模拟,得到了情景1和情景2的径流量和水质的控制效益。以年径流量削减比作为优化目标,对情景1和情景2两种情景方案进行了优化,给出了最具成本-效益的规划情景方案。     

设计暴雨雨型对城市内涝影响数值模拟

为分析设计暴雨雨型对城市内涝的影响,应用耦合了水文和水动力过程的数值模型,以陕西省西咸新区为研究区域,对不同重现期及峰值比例设计暴雨条件下的内涝过程进行模拟,并对内涝积水总量、不同积水深度内涝面积等量值进行对比分析。结果表明:设计暴雨重现期短于20年时,峰值比例较小的设计暴雨内涝积水总量较大,而重现期长于20年时,规律相反;除2年一遇设计暴雨外,峰值比例较大的设计暴雨致涝总面积较大,但其中影响严重的Ⅳ级致涝面积较小;设计暴雨峰值比例越小,重现期越长,积水总量峰值时刻相对于暴雨峰值时刻的迟滞时间越长。揭示了暴雨雨型与内涝积水程度的量化规律,对更合理地开展城市雨洪管理工作具有指导意义。     

丝绸之路沿线的兰州城市空间演变及其影响因素

丝绸之路沿线的城市是丝绸之路文明演变的聚焦和投影,研究历史时期丝绸之路沿线城市空间演变及影响因素是理解丝绸之路沿线城市发展的有效视角,对解释丝绸之路沿线人地关系规律具有科学意义.本研究以兰州市作为丝绸之路沿线典型城市,以历史文献资料为基础,结合空间分析技术对历史时期兰州城市空间演变及其影响因素进行分析,得出以下结论:丝...     

“一带一路”背景下矿产资源国际合作战略研究 ——以陕西省与中亚五国合作为例

2013年9月7日,国家主席习近平在哈萨克斯坦倡导欧亚国家共建丝绸之路经济带,十八届三中全会通过的《中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定》提出,推进丝绸之路经济带和海上丝绸之路建设,形成全方位开放新格局,“一带一路”成为全党和国家层面的重大战略。丝绸之路经济带建设的主要目标是经贸合作,兼顾其他战略层面的意义。丝绸之路经济带的核心层段是中亚经济带（胡鞍钢等,2014）。 中亚地区是指哈萨克斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、土库曼斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦五个国家。中亚国家所在地是“丝绸之路”的重要地段,这一区域因其特殊的地理位置和丰富的矿产资源被视为全球经济发展的“能源富集区”。随着全球经济增长乏力,发达国家经济复苏缓慢,全球经济重心东移,亚洲地区在世界激烈的竞争中脱颖而出,成为了全球探讨的热点。中亚地区因其丰富的能源和矿产资源,被称为“21世纪的战略能源和资源基地”,本文从丝绸之路经济带战略构想出发,研究矿产资源开发国际合作的途径和配套措施,以期能为丝绸之路经济带建设提供参考。     

Carbon peak and carbon neutrality in China: Goals,implementation path and prospects

Climate change is a common problem in human society. The Chinese government promises to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and strives to achieve carbon neutralization by 2060. The proposal of the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization has led China into the era of climate economy and set off a green change with both opportunities and challenges. On the basis of expounding the objectives and specific connotation of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutralization, this paper systematically discusses the main implementation path and the prospect of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutralization. China’s path to realizing carbon neutralization includes four directions: (1) in terms of carbon dioxide emission control: energy transformation path, energy conservation, and emission reduction path; (2) for increasing carbon sink: carbon capture, utilization, and storage path, ecological governance, and land greening path; (3) in key technology development: zero-carbon utilization, coal new energy coupling, carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS), energy storage technology and other key technology paths required to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutralization; (4) from the angle of policy development: Formulate legal guarantees for the government to promote the carbon trading market; Formulate carbon emission standards for enterprises and increase publicity and education for individuals and society. Based on practicing the goal and path of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, China will vigorously develop low carbon and circular economy and promote green and high-quality economic development; speed up to enter the era of fossil resources and promoting energy transformation; accelerate the integrated innovation of green and low-carbon technologies and promote carbon neutrality.©2021 China Geology Editorial Office.     

Low-carbon development in the least developed region: a case study of Guangyuan, Sichuan province, southwest China

The Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 has resulted in 50% of Guangyuan city facing recovery from different extents of damages. The massive reconstruction provides a good opportunity for Guangyuan city to response to the National Council??s call for tackling climate change by developing a harmonised and low-carbon economy. However, there are many arguments about the definition of ??low carbon?? and the framework that low-carbon development should follow. Low-carbon development in an economically least developed region such as Guangyuan would provide evidence and contribute to the discussion. The paper employs CO₂ emissions as an environmental indicator in scenario analysis to investigate Guangyuan??s future carbon performance in following the national call of reducing 40% of carbon intensity by 2020 and an alternative low-carbon development path. The results have demonstrated that a ??win?Cwin?? solution can be reached??keeping rapid economic growth while reducing CO₂ emissions, however, only by addressing the ??correct?? determining factors. Technology improvements and production structure changes have been identified as the key determining factors to affect both carbon intensity and CO₂ emissions in the future. The two factors are also interdependent. Governmental policies should give appropriate guideline to address both factors but with strong emphasis on production structure decarbonisation in order to avoid the mistake of ??polluting first and deal with the pollution later?? during the emission-intensive industrialisation processes that many western countries and China??s coastal regions have followed.     

Relative impacts of worldwide tropospheric ozone changes and regional emission modifications on European surface-ozone levels

Multi-scale models were applied to assess the surface ozone changes in 2030. Several emission scenarios are considered, ranging from (a) a pessimistic anthropogenic emission increase to (b) an optimistic decrease of emissions, and including (c) a realistic scenario that assumes the implementation of control legislations [CLE]. The two extreme scenarios lead respectively to homogeneous global increase and decrease of surface ozone, whereas low and inhomogeneous changes associated with a slight global increase of ozone are found for the CLE scenario. Over western Europe, for the CLE scenario, the benefit of European emission reduction is significantly counterbalanced by increasing global ozone levels. Considering warmer conditions over Europe and future emission modifications, the human health exposure to surface ozone is found to be significantly worsened.     

Managed Retreat of Saline Coastal Wetlands: Challenges and Opportunities Identified from the Hunter River Estuary,Australia

We analyse the potential impacts of sea-level rise on the management of saline coastal wetlands in the Hunter River estuary, NSW, Australia. We model two management options: leaving all floodgates open, facilitating retreat of mangrove and saltmarsh into low-lying coastal lands; and leaving floodgates closed. For both management options we modelled the potential extent of saline coastal wetland to 2100 under a low sea-level rise scenario (based on 5 % minima of SRES B1 emissions scenario) and a high sea-level rise scenario (based on 95 % maxima of SRES A1FI emissions scenario). In both instances we quantified the carbon burial benefits associated with those actions. Using a dynamic elevation model, which factored in the accretion and vertical elevation responses of mangrove and saltmarsh to rising sea levels, we projected the distribution of saline coastal wetlands, and estimated the volume of sediment and carbon burial across the estuary under each scenario. We found that the management of floodgates is the primary determinant of potential saline coastal wetland extent to 2100, with only 33 % of the potential wetland area remaining under the high sea-level rise scenario, with floodgates closed, and with a 127 % expansion of potential wetland extent with floodgates open and levees breached. Carbon burial was an additional benefit of accommodating landward retreat of wetlands, with an additional 280,000 tonnes of carbon buried under the high sea-level rise scenario with floodgates open (775,075 tonnes with floodgates open and 490,280 tonnes with floodgates closed). Nearly all of the Hunter Wetlands National Park, a Ramsar wetland, will be lost under the high sea-level rise scenario, while there is potential for expansion of the wetland area by 35 % under the low sea-level rise scenario, regardless of floodgate management. We recommend that National Parks, Reserves, Ramsar sites and other static conservation mechanisms employed to protect significant coastal wetlands must begin to employ dynamic buffers to accommodate sea-level rise change impacts, which will likely require land purchase or other agreements with private landholders. The costs of facilitating adaptation may be offset by carbon sequestration gains.     

A Review of the Scientific Assessment and Research on Household Carbon Emission

Household consumption represents an important proportion of all energy consumption,and it is an important source of CO₂ emission. But household consumption and carbon emissions are often overlooked in climate change policies and measures. Through literature review, the research status of household consumption and carbon emissions were reviewed. On this basis, the main aspects and directions of the research are summarized and the main research of household carbon emissions should focus on three aspects in the future: ①The impact of income, consumption levels and other factors on household carbon emission; ②The relationship between direct and indirect carbon emissions of household carbon emission; ③The structure and source of household carbon emission. In future research, there are four issues which need in-depth study: ①Index and models study of household carbon emissions;②Impact of demographic change on household carbon emissions; ③The path of how to achieve sustainable and green urban lifestyle;④The relevant policy research of household carbon emissions.     

The impact of economic growth,industrial structure and urbanization on carbon emission intensity in China

China’s macroeconomic policy framework has been determined to ensure steady growth, adjust the industrial structure and advance the socioeconomic reforms in recent years. And urbanization is supposed to be one of the most important socioeconomic reform directions. Meanwhile, China also committed to reduce carbon emissions intensity by 2020, then it should be noted that what kind of impact of these policy orientations on carbon emission intensity. Therefore, based on the historical data from 1978 to 2011, this paper quantitatively studies the impact of China’s economic growth, industrial structure and urbanization on carbon emission intensity. The results indicate that, first, there is long-term cointegrating relationship between carbon emission intensity and other factors. And the increase in the share of tertiary industry [i.e., the ratio of tertiary industry value added to gross domestic product (GDP)] and economic growth (here we use the real GDP per capita) play significant roles in curbing carbon emission intensity, while the promotion of population urbanization (i.e., the share of population living in the urban regions of total population) may lead to carbon emission intensity growth. Second, there exists significant one-way causality running from the urbanization rate and economic growth to carbon emission intensity, respectively. Third, among the three drivers, economic growth proves the main influencing factor of carbon emission intensity changes during the sample period.     

地质调查助力碳达峰碳中和目标实现的路径浅析

2030年前实现碳达峰,2060年前实现碳中和是2020年我国提出的国家重大战略目标。以当前我国的二氧化碳排放及能源结构现状,要实现这一伟大目标形势十分严峻。介绍了全球碳循环过程,阐述了碳源与碳汇对于大气CO₂浓度的贡献,从减源与增汇2个方面,初步分析了地质调查在推动碳达峰与碳中和目标实现中的作用与可能的贡献,并提出了地质解决路径。生态碳汇固然非常重要,但仍不能完全消除人为CO₂排放,且其具有不确定性,因此,需要充分发挥地质调查作用、挖掘地质碳汇潜力,使其成为实现碳中和目标过程中不可或缺的有力支撑。     

Driving forces of indirect carbon emissions from household consumption in China: an input–output decomposition analysis

Human activities have become a major source of Earth’s climate change, which brings the rise of surface air temperature and subsurface ocean temperature. Therefore, promoting sustainable consumption and production patterns is imperative to minimize the use of natural resources and reduce emissions of pollutants. This study uses Economic Input–Output Life-Cycle Assessment method and structural decomposition model to identify the driving forces that influence the changes in carbon emissions from China’s residential consumption in the context of sustainable consumption. The findings of the study are as follows: (1) indirect carbon emissions from Chinese household consumption increase rapidly over time; (2) the largest carbon dioxide emitting sector turns from agriculture sector in 1992 into service sector in 2007; (3) the consumption level and the emission intensity are the main drivers that influence the change in indirect carbon emissions; and (4) the factor of consumption level presents positive effect on the emissions, while the emission intensity effect plays a negative role. Besides, the factors of urbanization, production structure, population size and consumption structure also promote the rapid increase in carbon emissions.     

水泥生产碳排放的产生环节及减排措施

在工业生产过程中,CO2的大量排放被认为是导致气候变暖的重要因素之一,因此控制和减少CO2排放已成为人类社会面临的紧迫任务。水泥工业是人为排放CO2的重要来源之一,这就意味着水泥工业会在一种不断增加的管理压力下减少CO2的排放量,以应对全球变暖的现状。水泥生产过程中CO2的直接排放和间接排放两大排放途径,直接排放主要包括碳酸盐分解,烧成燃料/非烧成燃料的燃烧。间接排放主要是指电力消耗所产生的CO2。针对碳的排放环节,有效可行的CO2减排措施,例如原料、燃料的替代,熟料化学成分的改变,能源效率的提高等,对我国水泥工业的碳减排提出一些建议和看法。     

Driving forces of indirect carbon emissions from household consumption in China: an input–output decomposition analysis

Human activities have become a major source of Earth’s climate change, which brings the rise of surface air temperature and subsurface ocean temperature. Therefore, promoting sustainable consumption and production patterns is imperative to minimize the use of natural resources and reduce emissions of pollutants. This study uses Economic Input–Output Life-Cycle Assessment method and structural decomposition model to identify the driving forces that influence the changes in carbon emissions from China’s residential consumption in the context of sustainable consumption. The findings of the study are as follows: (1) indirect carbon emissions from Chinese household consumption increase rapidly over time; (2) the largest carbon dioxide emitting sector turns from agriculture sector in 1992 into service sector in 2007; (3) the consumption level and the emission intensity are the main drivers that influence the change in indirect carbon emissions; and (4) the factor of consumption level presents positive effect on the emissions, while the emission intensity effect plays a negative role. Besides, the factors of urbanization, production structure, population size and consumption structure also promote the rapid increase in carbon emissions.