黄河源区气候变化的季节特征与区域差异研究

基于黄河源区有关气象台站的观测数据,对该区黄河沿水文站以上、黄河沿水文站-吉迈水文站区间、吉迈水文站-玛曲水文站区间、玛曲水文站-唐乃亥水文站区间各区域及整个黄河源区1960-2014年期间气温、降水的季节变化特征及其区域差异进行了分析。结果表明：黄河源区气温变化与全球气温变化有着较好的一致性,各区年平均气温与各季气温的年际变化均呈波动状上升态势并明显高于过去50a全球与我国气温的升幅,且各气温系列升幅差异不大;而各区年平均气温与各季气温的年代际变化的上升态势较年际变化的更为显著,但不同区域各季气温升幅差异较大。各区气温均在1996年后出现一个跃动,跃动后各气温系列均值较跃动前有较大幅度的上升。由于区域地理环境的影响,黄河源区降水量的变化比较复杂,各区各季降水量的变化具有较大的差异。近50余年来,总体上整个河源区平均降水量的年际变化呈不明显的增长态势。其中河源区的上半部分,即黄河沿以上、黄河沿-吉迈之间等海拔较高的区域年降水量增长比较显著,而源区的下半部分,即吉迈-玛曲、玛曲-唐乃亥之间的区域,年降水呈减少态势,并且对全区平均降水量与产流量贡献最大的吉迈-玛曲之间的区域,年降水量的减少非常显著。各区冬春季和夏季降水量普遍呈增长态势,秋季是河源区各季节中降水唯一减少的季节,其中吉迈-玛曲之间的区间秋季降水量的减少最为显著。各区域各季降水量的年代际变化较其年际变化差异更大,但近十余年来大部分区域各季降水普遍偏多。各区域降水系列亦有突变发生,但突变时间并不像气温系列那样一致;年降水量与夏季降水量的突变大都发生在2005年,秋季降水量突变大都发生在1986年,春季和冬季降水量突变的时间杂乱无序;突变前后系列均值有增有减,且幅度大小不等。     

雅鲁藏布江流域1978-2009年气候时空变化及未来趋势研究

利用1 km 分辨率DEM数据及ArcHydro Tools 提取了雅鲁藏布江流域边界, 明确给出了该流域具体的地理边界及空间范围. 依据雅鲁藏布江流域范围内及周边39个气象站点1978-2009年近32 a逐年气象数据, 综合运用GIS空间插值技术及气象统计分析方法, 对雅鲁藏布江流域气候(着眼于降水和气温指标)时空变化特征及未来变化趋势进行了研究. 结果表明: 1978-2009年间流域范围内多年平均降水大致趋势为由西至东逐步增加, 年平均降水量以7.935 mm·(10a)^-1的速度缓慢增加. 流域多年平均气温大致由河源至下游逐渐升高, 河谷腹地至流域边界处逐渐降低, 并出现了以拉萨、乃东为中心的局部高温带; 近32 a流域年平均气温增加2.2 ℃, 增加幅度达到0.489 ℃·(10a)^-1, 高于全球及全国同期增温速率. 近10 a间, 流域平均降水以 -139 mm·(10a)^-1的速度显著减少, 气温则以1.14 ℃·(10a)^-1的速度增加, 整个流域气候呈现暖干趋势. 利用R/S分析法预测得知, 流域年降水量可能出现短时间的减少波动, 但未来较长一段时间内, 流域降水及气温仍将保持增加趋势, 流域气候呈现暖湿化趋势.     

开都河源区气候变化及径流响应

应用巴音布鲁克水文站和气象站1960-2005年的观测资料,分析了开都河流域源区气温和降水的变化特征以及径流对气候变化的响应.结果表明:近46 a来开都河源区气温总体呈上升趋势,而降水量年际波动较大,降水量自1989年以来增加显著,降水和气温是开都河源区径流量变化的主要影响因素.年降水量与年径流量的单相关系数最大,为0.73;年平均气温与年径流量的相关系数为0.36.在降水量不变的情况下,径流量随气温升高而减少;在气温不变的情况下,径流量随降水量的增加而增加;而在降水量和气温都增加的情况下,径流量将有所增加.     

黄河上游地区气候变化及其对黄河水资源的影响

通过对1961年以来黄河上游地区气候变化的分析,发现黄河源区进入80年代中后期以后,年平均气温上升趋势非常明显,特别是1998年的年平均气温竟达到-2.1℃,是40年来年平均气温最高的一年;进入90年代,春季和夏季温度急剧回升.黄河上游地区年平均降水量及秋季降水量无明显的变化趋势,且其年际间的波动趋于缓和;冬季(12～2月)和春季(3～5月)降水量的变化趋势呈现出逐年增多的趋势;夏季(6～8月)降水量变化趋势却表现出显著的减少趋势.同时,分析了38年黄河上游径流量及其与流域降水、气温的关系,着重分析了干旱气候对黄河水资源的影响.结果表明,黄河上游地区水资源呈减少趋势,其减少趋势进入90年代后尤为明显.这一变化趋势与黄河上游地区夏季降水量变化趋势有着一致性,说明汛期降水量的减少是黄河上游流量减少的最直接的气候因子.     

1971-2007年青藏高原南部气候变化特征分析

利用我国青藏高原南部24个站点1971-2007年37 a的月平均气温和月降水量资料,对该地区气温和降水量的时空变化特征进行了详细分析.结果表明:1)37 a来该地区气候显著变暖,年平均气温升温率为0.33℃.(10a)-1,气候变暖主要发生于1990年后.1991-2007年气候变暖加速,升温率达到0.76℃.(10a)-1,1997年后升温尤为迅速,升温率达1.14℃.(10a)-1.变暖表现为全年温度升高,其中冬季增暖尤为显著,1971-2007年升温率为0.41℃.(10a)-1,1991-2007年快速上升为1.4℃.(10a)-1.变暖速率具有从东向西的增加趋势;2)年降水量呈增加趋势,但不明显.降水量变化地区差异显著,西部地区降水量显著减少,东部地区总体呈增加趋势.随海拔和地形升高,年降水量有从东向西的减少趋势;3)综合而言,37 a来青藏高原南部地区气候变化呈现暖湿组合特征,但地区差异显著,东部地区变暖变湿,西部地区在变暖变干.     

近40a来江河源区生态环境变化的气候特征分析

利用月气象资料,对过去40a江河源气候变化特征进行分析,并与全球、全国、青藏高原进行了比较.结果表明:江河源区气温具有增暖趋势,近40a两地年平均气温分别增加约0.8℃和0.7℃,为高原异常变暖区.黄河源区变暖的主要特征是最低气温变暖,日照时数增加;最低、最高气温的显著变暖,以及较黄河源区增加更长的日照时数是长江源区变暖的主要特征.长江源区冬季变暖的作用不是主要的,春季、夏季和秋季的变暖作用比冬季还要大;黄河源区的变暖也并不主要是冬季变暖造成的,秋季变暖的作用与其相当,其它季节的变暖作用也不能忽视.近40a来江河源区降水量略有增加,主要体现在20世纪80年代中后期以来春季与冬季降水量的明显增加,夏季降水量虽然总体上没有明显变化,且局地夏季降水量呈持续减少趋势.与全球、全国以及高原区对比显示,江河源区对全球气候变暖的响应最敏感,变暖首先从长江源和整个高原发端,之后15a.黄河源和全国才进入显著温暖期.黄河源与长江源北部降水量的增加表明,气候变暖有利于高原增加降水量.     

1957—2006年河西走廊中部气候变化对水资源的影响

利用河西走廊中部1957—2006年6个气象站的气候资料,对气温、降水的变化特征以及由此引起的水资源的变化进行统计分析.结果表明:年平均气温整体以0.40℃.(10a)-1的速率上升,气温偏高主要是在冬季,春、夏季变化幅度不大.降水量的变化以2.81mm.(10a)-1的速度在递增,1980年代末至1990年代前期降水量出现下降,1990年代后期又开始缓慢增加.气温升高、降水量的增加、蒸发量的减少,意味着该地区气候由暖干向暖湿转变.水资源总量、河川径流量呈缓慢上升趋势,与降水量的变化具有一致性.     

黄河河源区径流对气候变化的敏感性分析

利用黄河源区有关水文、气象台站观测资料,对河源区各分区气候变化特征及各分区径流深对气候变化的敏感性进行了分析.结果表明:有器测资料以来的近50a间,河源区气温与全球变暖有着较好的对应关系,各区平均气温均呈不同程度的波动上升态势;而降水量的变化比较复杂,区域性差异较大;河源区径流的变化与降水量、气温的变化之间存在较显著的非线性关系.由于气温的持续上升与主要产流区降水的持续减少,区域径流量呈持续减少的趋势.总体上,河源区各分区径流对降水变化的敏感程度要强于气温,但吉迈以上区域径流对气温变化的敏感性要强于其下游其它两个区域.     

中俄原油管道工程(漠河大庆段)沿线气温、地表和浅层地温年际变化特征

分析了中俄原油管道(漠河-大庆段)沿线自建站至2005年的月平均气温和地温观测资料,并通过插补建立了1961—2005年漠-大沿线各站各季及年平均温度资料完整序列.结果表明:各站年平均气温具有很好的相关性,近40多年年平均气温在20世纪60年代最低,70年代略有回升,80年代后气温逐渐升高,进入90年代后期升温有所减缓;沿线各站的年平均地表温度也是20世纪70年代最低,70年代进入80年代升温最明显.气温升温最显著的是冬、春季,升温率分别达到0.71℃.(10a)-1和0.48℃.(10a)-1,夏季升温率只有0.27℃.(10a)-1.年平均气温和地表温度的升温率分别为0.45℃.(10a)-1和0.27℃.(10a)-1,气温的升温比地表温度要快.年平均地表温度要比年平均气温高,深层地温的变化趋势与气温基本一致,在位相上有1～2a的差异.     

1951-2010年内蒙古霍林河流域气候变化特征

以季风边缘区的霍林河流域为研究对象, 利用研究区周缘9个气象站台1951-2010年的逐月气象数据, 通过对气温和降水量进行趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验以及相关分析, 探讨流域气候变化过程、特征及周期. 结果表明: 在1951-2010年年均气温上升2.3 ℃, 其倾向率为0.38 ℃·(10a)^-1, 总体呈上升的趋势. 其中, 春季气温升幅最为明显, 倾向率为0.50 ℃·(10a)^-1. 同时, 年均气温以1986年为跃点, 发生突变, 突变后的1987-2010年平均气温比突变前1951-1986年气温高1.3 ℃, 并存在6~8 a和15 a的周期律. 年降水量近60 a来减少了83.9 mm, 其倾向率为-13.98 mm·(10a)^-1, 呈下降的趋势. 其中, 夏季降水量的下降最为明显, 倾向率为-11.41 mm·(10a)^-1. 年降水量以1998年为跃点发生突变, 突变后的1999-2010年降水量比突变前1951-1998年下降76 mm. 并存在4 a和8~9 a的振荡周期. 流域气温变化与北极涛动呈正相关, 而降水量与夏季风指数呈负相关.     

东濮凹陷北部沙河街组三段中亚段沉积环境分析

东濮凹陷北部沙三中亚段广泛发育盐岩和烃源岩,这两个看似不能共存的物质却在这里互层共生。该时期研究区沉积特征为多盐韵律与多层烃源岩互层共生、连续沉积,单个盐韵律厚度从几米到十几米,烃源岩有机质丰度高、类型好。平面上,两者在湖盆沉积沉降中心共生;垂向上,高有机质丰度、好干酪根类型与高盐度地层具有较好的对应关系。因而成为恢复古气候和古环境的重要研究对象。通过岩石学、古生物学以及Sr/Ba、B/Ga、(V+Ni+Mn)、Fe/Mn、Sr/Cu、Mg/Ca、V/(V+Ni)、稀土元素含量和氯同位素等方法对凹陷北部沙三中亚段的沉积环境进行研究。结果表明,凹陷北部沙三中亚段为深水沉积的还原环境,古盐度较高,达到半咸水-咸水沉积;微量元素和孢粉化石特征表明研究区沙三中亚段为温暖潮湿的环境。     

The Importance of the Precipitation and the Susceptibility of the Slopes for the Triggering of Landslides Along the Roads

In order to characterise the influence of the heavyrains on the observed landslides during the 1996–1997hydrological cycle, rainfall records for the last 100years are analysed from 104 stations in easternAndalusia. Regarding the amounts of rain recordedbetween October 1996 and March 1997 in the 104stations studied, 31 presented new all-time records;15 presented values that were 80–100% of thepre-1995 record; 49 stations, 80–50%; and 9stations, < 50%. A map has been devised of thesusceptibility of the materials through which thesouth-eastern Andalusian road network crosses,together with an inventory of the damage caused byinstability phenomena on banks and cuttings of theroad network during the winter of 1996–1997. Therelationships between the rainfall during the studyperiod, the damage caused to the road network and thesusceptibility of the materials affected are analysed.The results indicate that there is a clearcorrespondence between the rainfall recorded and thesusceptibility of the materials with the inventorieddamage. It is concluded that the widespread seriousdamage caused in early 1997 to the roads andsurrounding areas in the Alpujarra region and thecoast of the Province of Granada was mainly caused bythe extraordinarily heavy rains. However, considerablyless damage was observed where the susceptibility ofthe terrain is low, thus highlighting the extremeusefulness of terrain-susceptibility maps for riskprevention and territorial planning.     

郯庐断裂南段研究进展与断裂性质讨论

据1：5万区域地质调查和专题研究资料，就郯庐断裂带是否南延与消失的原因，其与大别—苏鲁造山带交截形成的假位错效应，以及与中新生代沉积盆地形成演化的关系等作了新的阐述。在此基础上，讨论了郯庐断裂带是否为巨大的左行平移断层或转换断层。认为郯庐断裂带可能是在“古郯庐带”的基础上于早侏罗世重新活动、白垩纪强烈活动的地堑型枢纽断裂带。     

塘口水电站坝基岩体透水性和渗漏问题分析

塘口水电站大坝基础座落在断层和裂隙较发育的龟裂纹灰岩上,岩体完整性差、透水性强,多年运行后,大坝灌浆廊道和排水廊道出现多处集中性漏水,为确保大坝安全和电站正常发电,根据渗漏性质和成因,采用对灌浆廊道补充帷幕灌浆,对排水廊道进行固结+帷幕+回填灌浆。通过灌浆处理后,效果良好,表明灌浆工程有效的将导致坝基渗漏的上下游的裂隙通道封闭,并顺利的经受了随后的汛期洪水考验,大坝安全得到保障。     

Unity of the national and the international in the socio-cultural development of the peoples of the USSR

International unity is becoming ever stronger in this country owing to an increasing similarity in the development of the cultural environment. This comprises the provision of all the country's republics with a sufficient number of schools, theatres, and other institutions and cultural information media in accordance with the needs of the population. An important part is played by the rise in ‘the general educational level, as well as the level of professional qualifications and skills. Among all the Soviet nations and nationalities, this rise being more rapid among formerly backward peoples. Prominent among the factors of internationalization is the progressive development of the nationalities’ cultural resources, while professional culture is being increasingly brought within the reach of the masses.The implementation of the nationalities policy promotes the all-round development of all Soviet nations and nationalities, their drawing together, the upsurge of the individual capabilities of every Soviet citizen.     

Calculation of the Inverse of the Covariance

In reservoir characterization, the covariance is often used to describe the spatial correlation and variation in rock properties or the uncertainty in rock properties. The inverse of the covariance, on the other hand, is seldom discussed in geostatistics. In this paper, I show that the inverse is required for simulation and estimation of Gaussian random fields, and that it can be identified with the differential operator in regularized inverse theory. Unfortunately, because the covariance matrix for parameters in reservoir models can be extremely large, calculation of the inverse can be a problem. In this paper, I discuss four methods of calculating the inverse of the covariance, two of which are analytical, and two of which are purely numerical. By taking advantage of the assumed stationarity of the covariance, none of the methods require inversion of the full covariance matrix.     

某高速公路下伏煤矿采空区稳定性分析

在论述某高速公路下伏砦脖煤矿采空区地质、采矿和工程地质特征的基础上, 进行了稳定性数值模拟分析, 定性与定量地分析与评价了该煤矿采空区的地表变形特征及稳定性。研究结果表明: 该煤矿采空区的变形尚未完成, 对拟建的高速公路将产生很大的危害, 必须采取相应的工程治理措施。      

Report of the restudy of the defined global stratotype of the base of the Silurian System

The Global Stratotype Section and Point （GSSP） for the base of the Silurian System was defined in 1985. Since that time, a number of researchers have suggested that this section has serious deficiencies for use as a GSSP. As a result, in 2000, the Subcommission on Silurian Stratigraphy （SSS） proposed undertaking a formal restu@ of this GSSP, which was subsequently approved by the International Commission of Stratigraphy （ICS）. The result of this restudy was the formal proposal that the current GSSP, at 1.6 m above the base of the Birkhill Shale, at Dob＇s Linn, Scotland, should be maintained as the same locality and stratigraphic level, but the bios- tratigraphical definition of the boundary should be revised. The previously defined, basal Silurian grapto- lite zone, the Parakidograptus acuminatus Zone, should be subdivided into a lower Akidograptus ascensus Zone and a higher E acuminatus Zone. The base of the A. ascensus Zone, marked by the first appearance of A. ascensus, should be regarded as the biostratigraphic mark for the base of the Silurian. This proposal has now been formally approved by the SSS and ICS, and ratified by International Union of Geological Sciences. This is the first GSSP to undergo formal restudy and redefini- tion, and the proposal also included a recommended procedure for restudy of GSSPs.     

Deviation of the major axis of the inertia ellipsoid of the Moon from the direction toward the Earth

It is known from observations that the center of mass of the Moon does not coincide with the geometric center of its figure, and the line connecting these two centers is not aligned with the direction toward the center of the Earth, instead deviating toward the Southeast. This stationary deviation of the axis of the inertia ellipsoid of the Moon to the South of the direction toward the Earth is analyzed. A system of five linear differential equations describing the physical libration of the Moon in latitude is considered, and these equations are derived using a new vector method taking into account perturbations from the Earth and partly from the Sun. The characteristic equation of this system is obtained, and all five oscillation frequencies are found. Special attention is paid to the fifth (zero) frequency, for which the solution of the latitude libration equations are stationary and represents a previously unknown additional motion of the rotational axis of theMoon in a cone with a small opening angle. In contrast to the astronomical precession of the Earth, the rotation of the angular-velocity vector is in the positive direction (counter-clockwise), with the period T ₃ = 27.32 days. On this basis, this phenomenon has been named “quasi-precession.” This quasi-precession leads to a stationary inclination of the major axis of the inertia ellipsoid of theMoon to the South (for an observer on Earth), making it possible to explain one component of the observed deviation of the center of mass of the Moon from the direction toward the Earth. The opening angle of the quasiprecession cone is approximately 0.834″.     

The Tendencies of the Development of the Mineral-Resources Sector at the Turn of the Century

Important tendencies in development of the world mineral-resources sector at the beginning of the 21st century were an increase in production and consumption of mineral materials differentiated by types of metals and nonmetallic mineral raw materials, by countries and regions, as well as the concentration of the production of mineral raw materials in a small number of countries, and a reduction in industrial reserves of minerals in the world economy, even at the current stage of their extraction. These tendencies should be taken into account in working out a strategy for development of the Russian mineral raw-material base.