中国地震学会2000年工作总结暨2001年学术活动计划

总结了中国地震学会2000年的工作，内容包括中国地震学会2000年的学术交流活动、组织工作和科学普及工作；介绍了中国地震学会2001年来的学术活动计划。     

2000年下半年全球地震活动

2000年下半年全球共发生Mw≥6．5地震27次，其中23次为浅源地震，深源地震4次。发生Mw≥7．0地震5次，最大震级达Mw8．0。11月16日和17日，在俾斯麦群岛和所罗门群岛交界地区，发生了3次Mw≥7．8地震。2000年，全球地震活动处于1976年以来的较高水平。     

甘肃景泰MS5.9地震前后小地震视应力计算讨论

分析处理甘肃数字化地震台网记录到的1999年11月至2000年6月的68个地震，给出了甘肃景泰2000年6月6日Ms5．9地震前后小地震的视应力变化情况，得到该区的视应力水平，并讨论了主震前后的视应力演化特征以及视应力与震级的关系。     

昆仑山口西Ms8.1地震前远场应变异常研究

依据6个钻孔应力-应变连续观测资料，研究了区域应力场的变化，结果表明在2000年10月整个青藏高原周边应力场发生了显著的变化．与昆仑山口西8．1级地震前的地震活动时空分布进行了对比，研究发现发生在2000年9月的兴海震群和2000年10—11月的唐古拉山震群是这次8．1级地震在孕震过程中的一次应力积聚释放的结果．     

玛曲地区地震活动特征及记录波形特征

研究了甘青川交界的玛曲地区1987－2000年之间地震的活动特征以及地震记录波形特征，发现1998年以来的小震群与以前不同，具有发生中强地震的异常背景。     

加拿大第三届地震工程会议简况

据合众国际社蒙特利尔1979年6月6日电:来自世界各地数百名专家于星期三结束了为期三天的地震工程会议。这次会议提醒了蒙特利尔人注意,在2000年之前这里可能有发生一次较大地震的可能性。这次在加拿大召开的第三届地震工程会议     

甘肃省地震台网监测能力分析

讨论了影响台网监测能力的因素，通过对2000年6月～2003年1月甘肃省地震台网产出的地震目录进行分析，给出了甘肃省地震台网监测能力，对台网监测能力弱区进行了划分，提出提高台网监测能力的建议。     

兴海6．6级地震灾害调查与损失评估

2000年9月12日青海省兴海县发生6．6级地震，青海省地震局为本次地震进行了地震灾害调查和损失评估。     

防震减灾、应急准备和反应及恢复重建的社会学问题

尽管灾害几乎在地球上开始出现以来一直给人类带来灾祸(《创世纪》6—8和《基督》8—10将此种灾害看作是上帝的行动)，尽管许多灾害(如：1666年伦敦大火、1755年里斯本地震、1871年芝加哥大火、1906年旧金山地震，这里仅列4例)已载入编年史，但是在1920年S．H．Prince向哥伦比亚大学提交有关军火船爆炸造成2000多人死亡的1917年哈利法克斯灾难的学位     

中国玉树地震探究

2010年4月发生在中国西部的大地震目前已造成2000多人死亡。根据研究人员的分析,此次地震可能会增加附近一条断层上的应力,同时也增加了受灾地区面临再次地震的危险。     

都江堰市农村"安身工程"防震抗震的讨论

“安身工程”是成都市人民政府为民办实事工程,全市每年约修建2千套住房,体现了党和人民政府对农村困难群众的关怀,“安身工程”的防震抗震工作也关系到群众的生命和财产安全。都江堰市人民政府和四川省古建筑设计研究院合作,为“安身工程”提供了造价低廉、有一定抗震性能的川西民居风格的总平面图纸,本文分析和讨论了都江堰农村“安身工程”防震抗震性能与特点。     

The Hat Yai 2000 flood: the worst flood in Thai history

Hat Yai, the largest commercial and tourist city in southern Thailand, is subjected to regular flood events, primarily during the northeast monsoon period. Flooding in this region is recognized as a serious disaster in terms of frequency, rate of risk, and affected areas. The monsoon of 21–25 November 2000 caused extremely heavy rain in the southern part of Thailand, resulting in a great flood occupying Hat Yai. This caused significant damage. Therefore, the use of both structural and non‐structural measures is mandatory to reduce the economic losses and the risk for society. This paper investigates two modelling approaches for flood prevention and mitigation of Hat Yai city. First, a hard computing approach by a physically distributed model was applied to study the flood behaviour in a two‐dimensional floodplain flow. Second, a soft computing approach using a neuro‐genetic algorithm was used to develop a flood‐forecasting tool. It was found that the great flood of 2000 can be simulated well by the FLO‐2D model. Computed discharges and flood level in the floodplain are close to the observed data. Countermeasures using diversion canals are guaranteed to accelerate the floodwater drainage to Songkla Lake, significantly reducing the flood impact to the people. In addition, the flood forecasting technique developed in this study can give satisfactory results. This would be very useful as a flood‐warning tool for the community Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploring changes in hydrogeological risk awareness and preparedness over time: a case study in northeastern Italy

ABSTRACT

Hydrogeological hazards are increasingly causing damage worldwide due to climatic and socio-economic changes. Building resilient communities is crucial to reduce potential losses. To this end, one of the first steps is to understand how people perceive potential threats around them. This study aims at exploring how risk awareness of, and preparedness to, face hydrological hazards changes over time. A cohort study was carried out in two villages in the northeastern Italian Alps, Romagnano and Vermiglio, affected by debris flows in 2000 and 2002. Surveys were conducted in 2005 and 2018, and the results compared. The survey data show that both awareness and preparedness decreased over time. We attribute this change to the fact that no event had occurred in a long time and to a lack of proper risk communication strategies. The outcomes of this study contribute to socio-hydrological modelling by providing empirical data on human behaviour dynamics.     

地壳形变观测与地震前兆一般性问题的讨论

从构造变形及破裂成核的角度来看, 强地震前形变异常理应出现在地震震源附近, 而许多连续形变观测事实与这种认识往往是相矛盾的.本文研究了攀枝花多次形变异常结束后10天内的首发中强地震与异常之间的相关性, 发现西北地区2000-2005年5.9级以上地震震中(绝大多数作为异常后的首发地震)分布具有较好的规律性.本文揭示的事实对于认识形变观测与前兆本质、实验场区连续形变观测台网建设及物理预测方法探索等都提供了新的可能性.     

福州地震台P2000测氡仪试测实验分析

对P2000与FD-125测氡仪进行为期一个半月的同步观测对比,并对P2000测氡仪该装置是否适用于地震氡观测及氡气标定器的刻度校正进行测试实验,根据观测的数据进行归纳和总结.结果表明,P2000测氡仪稳定性较好,操作使用简单,一次性充电可以连续使用十几个小时,较适用于野外观测.缺点是该测氡1次只能测1个水样,如果要测两平行样要六七个小时,时间相对较长.对观测的数据对比分析,发现虽然P2000测氡仪测值低于FD-125氡钍分析器的测值,但整体形态和趋势变化基本一致.     

Toward a revised hazard assessment at Merapi volcano, Central Java

Of 1.1 million people living on the flanks of the active Merapi volcano, 440,000 are at relatively high risk in areas prone to pyroclastic flows, surges, and lahars. For the last two centuries, the activity of Merapi has alternated regularly between long periods of viscous lava dome extrusion, and brief explosive episodes at 8–15 year intervals, which generated dome-collapse pyroclastic flows and destroyed part of the pre-existing domes. Violent explosive episodes on an average recurrence of 26–54 years have generated pyroclastic flows, surges, tephra-falls, and subsequent lahars. The 61 reported eruptions since the mid-1500s killed about 7000 people. The current hazard-zone map of Merapi (Pardyanto et al., 1978) portrays three areas, termed ‘forbidden zone’, ‘first danger zone’ and ‘second danger zone’, based on successively declining hazards. Revision of the hazard map is desirable, because it lacks details necessary to outline hazard zones with accuracy, in particular the valleys likely to be swept by lahars, and excludes some areas likely to be devastated by pyroclastic gravity-currents such as the 22 November 1994 surge. In addition, risk maps should be developed to incorporate social, technical, and economic factors of vulnerability.Eruptive hazard assessment at Merapi is based on reconstructed eruptive history, on eruptive behavior and scenarios, and on existing models and preliminary numerical modeling. Firstly, the reconstructed eruptive activity, in particular for the past 7000 years and from historical accounts of eruptions, helps to define the extent and recurrence frequency of the most hazardous phenomena (Newhall et al., 2000; Camus et al., 2000). Pyroclastic flows traveled as far as 9–15 km from the source, pyroclastic surges swept the flanks as far as 9–20 km away from the vent, thick tephra fall buried temples in the vicinity of Yogyakarta 25 km to the south, and subsequent lahars spilled down the radial valleys as far as 30 km to the west and south. At least one large edifice collapse has occurred in the past 7000 years (Newhall et al., 2000; Camus et al., 2000). Secondly, four eruption scenarios are portrayed as hazardous zones on two maps and derived from the past eruptive behavior of Merapi and from the most affected areas in the past. Thirdly, simple numerical simulation, based on a Digital Elevation Model, a stereo-pair of SPOT satellite images, and one 2D-orthoimage helps to simulate pyroclastic and lahar flowage on the flanks and in radial valley channels, and to outline areas likely to be devastated.Three major threats are identified: (1) a collapse of the summit dome in the short-to mid-term, that can release large-volume pyroclastic flows and high-energy surges towards the south–southwest sector of the volcano; (2) an explosive eruption, much larger than any since 1930, may sweep all the flanks of Merapi at least once every century; (3) a potential collapse of the summit area, involving the fumarolic field of Gendol and part of the southern flank, which can contribute to moderate-scale debris avalanches and debris flows.     

集水区尺度景观格局与过程的时空动态分析:美国俄勒冈州塞勒支盆地1977-2000年的变化

在集水区尺度利用景观生态学的原理进行分析和管理是现代生态学与地理科学的一个重要课题.在人口增长和经济发展的压力下,集水区的格局和过程己受到人类活动越来越强烈地干扰.赛勒支盆地是一个典型的美国太平洋西北部沿海地区的集水区,本文以此为例,研宄了美国俄勒冈州中部集水区尺度的景观格局和过程在人类活动干扰下的时空动态.通过卫星遥感影像的应用,我们对1977年到2000年间赛勒支盆地土地覆盖的变化进行了检测.我们用陆地资源卫星1977年的多光谱影像(MSS), 1988年的专题影像(TM)' 2000年的增强专题影像(ETM+)高精度地定量分析了森林演替系列(如,演替后期的老针叶林和成熟针叶林,演替前期的年轻针叶林,以及更新的幼林）和其它土地覆盖类型的变化.景观的空间格局通过多种格局指数,例如,缀块指数、缀块形状复杂性指数、以及连接指数等进行了分析.同时,基于美国太平洋西北部主要森林类型和其它土地覆盖类型碳通量和碳贮量的空间数据库和文献资料,我们对 1977-2000年赛勒支盆地中的碳库及其在人类活动干扰下的变化作了测定.研宄结果揭示出,因为森林皆伐,老针叶林和成熟针叶林在1977-2000年间显著地减少,分别由占整个盆地土地覆盖面积的23%和12%, 减少为12%和7%;与此相反,年轻针叶林和无林地则分别从24%和5%增加为43%和14%.同时,因为采伐等干扰,留存的老针叶林和成熟针叶林空间分布格局的破碎度也迅速增加.集水区的碳收支在 1977-2000期间发生了巨大的变化.在收获干扰的压力下,在1977-2000年间,整个集水区的生态系统碳贮量从 17640797t 减少到 13405720t;净生态系统生产力(Net Ecosystem Production, NEP)由每年 100462tC 减少为每年76800tC.     

Latest update of tests and improvements to US Coast Guard viscous oil pumping system

Over the past nine years, the US Coast Guard has incorporated the prevention through people (PTP) philosophy as a “human factors” approach to learn how maritime operations can be regulated safer and be more efficient by evaluating training, management policies, operational procedures, and establishing partnerships with the maritime industry. One of the key elements of applying a PTP approach is identifying and incorporating lessons learned from major marine casualties and pollution incidents. Since 1997, the US Coast Guard National Strike Force has responded to three major oil spills involving foreign freight vessels grounding, which included the removal of highly viscous oil using various lightering equipment and systems. An informal workgroup consisting of the US Coast Guard, US Navy Supervisor of Salvage (NAVSUPSALV), and various representatives from oil pollution clean-up companies met at the following facilities: the Chevron Asphalt Facility in Edmonds, WA (September 1999), the Oil and Hazardous Materials Simulated Environmental Test Tank (OHMSETT) testing facility in Leonardo, New Jersey (November 1999 and March 2000), the Alaska Clean Seas (ACS) warehouse annex in Prudhoe Bay, AK (October 2000), and Cenac Towing Company facility in Houma, LA (May 2002). The group shared ideas and techniques, and tested different pumps and hose lengths with viscous oil. It was during the early tests that the first quantitative results showed just how efficient lubricated transport of heavy oil product could be, and broadened the knowledge of such methods to the entire industry. Although this technology had existed for many years in the oil production and handling industry, its use had never been investigated in a laboratory setting with regard to salvage response lightering systems.     

The assessment of surface water resources for the semi‐arid Yongding River Basin from 1956 to 2000 and the impact of land use change

The assessment of surface water resources (SWRs) in the semi‐arid Yongding River Basin is vital as the basin has been in a continuous state of serious water shortage over the last 20 years. In this study, the first version of the geomorphology‐based hydrological model (GBHM) has been applied to the basin over a long period of time (1956–2000) as part of an SWR assessment. This was done by simulating the natural hydrological processes in the basin. The model was first evaluated at 18 stream gauges during the period from 1990 to 1992 to evaluate both the daily streamflows and the annual SWRs using the land use data for 1990. The model was further validated in 2000 with the annual SWRs at seven major stream gauges. Second, the verified model was used in a 45‐year simulation to estimate the annual SWRs for the basin from 1956 to 2000 using the 1990 land use data. An empirical correlation between the annual precipitation and the annual SWRs was developed for the basin. Spatial distribution of the long‐term mean runoff coefficients for all 177 sub‐basins was also achieved. Third, an additional 10‐year (1991–2000) simulation was performed with the 2000 land use data to investigate the impact of land use changes from 1990 to 2000 on the long‐term annual SWRs. The results suggest that the 10‐year land use changes have led to a decrease of 8·3 × 10⁷ m³ (7·9% of total) for the 10‐year mean annual SWRs in the simulation. To our knowledge, this work is the first attempt to assess the long‐term SWRs and the impact of land use change in the semi‐arid Yongding River Basin using a semi‐distributed hillslope hydrological model. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.