POM模式在日本南部黑潮路径变异研究中的应用

日本南部黑潮路径变异对北太平洋地区的气候和环境具有显著的影响,对黑潮路径变异的研究具有重要的意义。本文利用POM(Princeton Ocean Model)数值模式模拟了日本南部黑潮的路径变异情况,分析了黑潮大弯曲路径形成的可能机制。研究结果表明,当黑潮处于非大弯曲路径时,相对位势涡度的平均值呈现递减趋势,说明日本南部低位势涡度水在不断积累,这样会使得四国再循环流的强度增强,迫使黑潮保持平直路径,同时,近岸黑潮垂直流速剪切增大,斜压不稳定性的作用也逐渐增大;当黑潮从非大弯曲路径向大弯曲路径过渡时,再循环流强度的减弱会导致黑潮的流速剪切减小。根据海表高度异常场以及海洋上层流场信息发现,近岸黑潮附近的气旋涡会随着再循环流区域反气旋涡的东侧向南运动,最终导致黑潮大弯曲的发生。分析涡流的能量,结果显示,黑潮大弯曲路径的形成与斜压不稳定性密切相关。     

Significance of High-Frequency Wind Forcing in Modelling the Kuroshio

Motivated by an analysis of a satellite sea surface temperature image suggesting that a train of extra-tropical cyclones induces amplification of the Kuroshio meander, a regional Kuroshio/Oyashio general circulation model was used to investigate the impact of high-frequency wind on the Kuroshio path variations. Near Japan, the standard deviation of the wind stress curl can be 10 times larger than the monthly mean, so the synoptic variations of the wind stress curl cannot be neglected. With the bimodal Kuroshio case realized in the model, sensitivity tests were conducted using monthly and daily mean QuikSCAT-derived wind stress forcings. The comparison showed that the high-frequency local wind perturbed the Shikoku recirculation gyre (SRG) and caused a transition of the path from straight to meander. The strong anticyclonic eddy within the SRG triggered the meander in the latter case. The high-frequency wind perturbed the motion of the eddy that would have otherwise detached from the Kuroshio, migrated south and terminated the meandering state. The result reinforces the suggestion from previous studies that the anticyclonic eddy within the SRG plays an active role in controlling the Kuroshio path variations.     

模式参数的不确定性对日本南部黑潮大弯曲路径预报的影响

基于1.5层浅水方程模式,利用条件非线性最优参数扰动(CNOP-P)方法,研究模式参数的不确定性对黑潮大弯曲路径预报的影响。研究表明,单个模式参数误差如侧向摩擦系数误差、界面摩擦系数误差以及在不同季节具有不同约束的风应力大小误差,对黑潮大弯曲路径预报的影响较小,并且对背景流场的选取具有一定的敏感性;所有模式参数误差同时存在时对黑潮大弯曲路径预报具有一定的影响,并且预报结果在9个月左右不能被接受。因此,要提高黑潮大弯曲路径的预报技巧,模式中的参数需要给出更好的估计。     

日本南部黑潮路径发生弯曲的最优前期征兆及其发展机制

基于正压出入流模式, 利用条件非线性最优扰动(CNOP)方法研究初始异常的位置与模态对日本南部黑潮路径变异的影响。以模式模拟出的黑潮平直路径的平衡态作为参考态, 计算CNOP, 考察该扰动随时间的发展, 并与随机扰动的发展进行对比。结果表明, CNOP 能够导致黑潮弯曲路径发生, 随机扰动则不能。因此, CNOP 可以作为导致日本南部黑潮路径发生弯曲的一种最优前期征兆。通过分析CNOP 和随机扰动的发展过程, 可以得出: (1) CNOP 使黑潮发展成弯曲路径的过程是一个气旋涡向下游传播并增长的过程。(2) 气旋涡的向东传播都是非线性项的作用, 也就是涡度平流造成的。(3) CNOP和随机扰动发展过程中所产生的气旋涡均会传播到下游区域, 但是CNOP 产生的气旋涡能够增强, 最终导致弯曲路径发生, 而随机扰动产生的气旋涡则会减弱, 并不能导致弯曲路径发生。分析发现, 在CNOP 实验中, 非线性作用使气旋涡增大; 但在随机扰动实验中, 非线性作用使气旋涡减弱, 所以非线性作用对日本南部黑潮路径发生弯曲有重要影响。(4) 底摩擦效应对日本南部黑潮路径变异影响较小。本文揭示的黑潮路径发生弯曲的最优前期征兆及其非线性发展机制, 对提高黑潮路径变异的预报技巧具有重要意义。     

Generation of Small Meanders of the Kuroshio South of Kyushu in a High-Resolution Ocean General Circulation Model

The generation of small meanders of the Kuroshio south of Kyushu has been investigated using a high-resolution ocean general circulation model of the North Pacific Ocean. The small cyclonic meander develops in the region east of the Tokara Strait with a period of about one month, then propagates downstream along the Kuroshio path to the longitude of the Kii Peninsula, which is similar to the so-called trigger meanders for the formation of the large-meander of the Kuroshio south of Japan. It turns out that the generation of the small meander is a local phenomenon, strongly associated with anticyclonic eddies that propagate northeastward along the Kuroshio path in the East China Sea. The vorticity balance indicates that the accumulation of positive vorticity during the developing phase of the small meander occurs mainly from the balance between the stretching and the advection terms. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

基于自组织映射的日本南部黑潮与黑潮延伸体的典型时空模态及其因果关系研究

过去的研究认为,黑潮延伸体的年代际振荡受来自其下游的太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）相关联的信号主导,但最近的观测表明这种调控机制在2017年9月之后不再成立。与此同时,黑潮延伸体的上游即日本南部黑潮正在发生一次大弯曲事件。利用26年（1993–2018年）的卫星高度计提供的海表高度距平数据和自组织映射（SOM）方法,本文研究了日本南部黑潮与黑潮延伸体的时空模态及其因果关系。结果表明,SOM能有效地提取两个海区的典型空间模态,且它们的演变轨迹表明当日本南部黑潮处于大弯曲（离岸型非大弯曲）路径时,黑潮延伸体趋于稳定（不稳定）态。基于SOM识别得到的海表面高度距平（SLA）特征区及特征时间模态,我们进一步利用一种最近发展的定量因果分析方法研究了两个流系之间的因果关系。研究发现,当黑潮大弯曲发生时,日本南部黑潮和黑潮延伸体之间存在双向因果,但因果关键区不同。前者对后者的影响集中在纪伊半岛东南侧及黑潮延伸体“两脊一槽”区域,而后者对前者的影响则集中在黑潮延伸体“两脊一槽”区域及黑潮再循环流区域。这说明黑潮大弯曲的发展对黑潮延伸体的稳定性有重要作用,同时黑潮延伸体通过调制南部再循环流影响日本南部黑潮的路径。不同的是,当离岸型非大弯曲路径发生时,只有从日本南部黑潮向黑潮延伸体的单向因果关系,且因果性主要集中在伊豆海脊及再循环流区域。这与该时期海表高度负异常沿日本南岸不断向位于下游的黑潮延伸体再循环流的传播有关,它使得黑潮延伸体变得不稳定。     

Sea level variations along the south coast of Japan and the large meander in the Kuroshio

Sea level variations from 1974 through 1976 at 9 stations on the south coast of Japan (from west to east, Aburatsu, Tosa-shimizu, Muroto-misaki, Kushimoto, Uragami, Owase, Toba, Maisaka and Omaezaki) were analysed in relation to the large meander in the Kuroshio. From May to July in 1975, a small maximum in sea level variation was observed at every station west of Cape Shionomisaki from Aburatsu to Kushimoto. It propagated eastward along with the eastward propagation of a small meander in the Kuroshio until it reached Kushimoto, when the sea levels at Uragami and Owase started to rise sharply. This remarkable rise appeared at all stations in August when a large meander in the Kuroshio was established. The mean sea level at the stations east of Cape Shionomisaki from Uragami to Omaezaki rose by about 10 cm. The difference in sea level variations between the regions east and west of Cape Shionomisaki, which had been present before the rise, disappeared. A similar characteristic of sea level variation was also found in the generation stage of the large meander in 1959. The sea level variations along the south coast of Japan indicate that, prior to the generation of the large meander, the small meander in the Kuroshio was generated southeast of Kyushu and propagated eastward and that, just when this meander reached off Cape Shionomisaki, a large scale oceanic event covering over the whole region of the south coast of Japan occurred. This large scale event seems to be one of the necessary conditions for the generation of the large meander in the Kuroshio off Enshû-nada.     

Detecting fluctuations of the Kuroshio axis south of Japan using TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data

Sea surface dynamic topography (SSDT) can be divided into temporal mean SSDT and fluctuation SSDT. The former is approximated with a climatological mean SSDT and the latter is derived from satellite altimetry data, to give an approximated total SSDT (called a composite SSDT). The method is applied to detecting fluctuations of the Kuroshio axis south of Japan using TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data from the first year mission in 1992–1993. The fluctuation SSDT averaged over a wide area south of Japan clearly shows an annual cycle with an amplitude of about 15 cm. Temporal changes of SSDT along a subsatellite track crossing the Kuroshio compare moderately well with those estimated from repeated hydrographic observations, although there is a discrepancy of unknown origin. The composite SSDT also compares well with SSDT estimated from the same hydrographic data. Horizontal distribution of the surface geostrophic velocity component normal to subsatellite tracks is derived every ten days from the composite SSDT. Most locations of estimated strong eastward geostrophic velocities coincide well with locations of the Kuroshio axis determined every 15 days fromin situ surface velocity measurements on various vessels; for example, a fairly large meander of the Kuroshio south of Honshu is clearly detected. It is concluded that the composite SSDT can be used reliably to detect fluctuations of the Kuroshio axis south of Japan.     

Temporal-spatial oceanic variation in relation with the three typical Kuroshio paths south of Japan

Empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis was applied to a 50-year long time series of monthly mean positions of the Kuroshio path south of Japan from a regional reanalysis. Three leading EOF modes characterize the contributions from three typical paths of the Kuroshio meander: the typical large meander path, the offshore nonlarge meander path, and the nearshore non-large meander path, respectively. Accordingly, the spatial variation characteristics of oceanic anomaly fields can be depicted by...     

Influence of Mesoscale Eddies on Variations of the Kuroshio Path South of Japan

The influences of mesoscale eddies on variations of the Kuroshio path south of Japan have been investigated using time series of the Kuroshio axis location and altimeter-derived sea surface height maps for a period of seven years from 1993 to 1999, when the Kuroshio followed its non-large meander path. It was found that both the cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies may interact with the Kuroshio and trigger short-term meanders of the Kuroshio path, although not all eddies that approached or collided with the Kuroshio formed meanders. An anticyclonic eddy that revolves clockwise in a region south of Shikoku and Cape Shionomisaki with a period of about 5–6 months was found to propagate westward along about 30°N and collide with the Kuroshio in the east of Kyushu or south of Shikoku. This collision sometimes triggers meanders which propagate over the whole region south of Japan. The eddy was advected downstream, generating a meander on the downstream side to the east of Cape Shionomisaki. After the eddy passed Cape Shionomisaki, it detached from the Kuroshio and started to move westward again. Sometimes the eddy merges with other anticyclonic eddies traveling from the east. Coalescence of cyclonic eddies, which are also generated in the Kuroshio Extension region and propagate westward in the Kuroshio recirculation region south of Japan, into the Kuroshio in the east of Kyushu, also triggers meanders which mainly propagate only in a region west of Cape Shionomisaki. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Kuroshio pathways in a climatologically forced model

A high-resolution ocean model forced with an annually repeating atmosphere is used to examine variability of the Kuroshio, the western boundary current in the North Pacific Ocean. A large meander (LM) in the path of the Kuroshio south of Japan develops and disappears in a highly bimodal fashion on decadal timescales. The modeled meander is comparable in timing and spatial extent to an observed feature in the region. Various characteristics of the LM are examined, including relative vorticity, transport, and velocity shear. The many similarities between the model and observations indicate that the meander results from intrinsic oceanic variability, which is represented in this climatologically forced model. Each LM is preceded by a smaller “trigger” meander that originates at the south end of Kyushu, moves up the coast, and develops into the LM. However, there are also many meanders very similar in character to the trigger meander that do not develop into LMs. Formation of an LM only occurs when a deep anticyclone associated with the trigger meander forms near Koshu Seamount. Furthermore, the major axis of that deep anticyclone must be oriented away from the coast, rather than alongshore. In the specific case of interaction of a trigger meander with a deep anticyclone with major axis oriented away from the coastline, LM formation occurs.     

The variation of the Kuroshio during 1986-1988

On the basis of the analysis of the data obtained from five cruises of the R/V Xiangyanghong 09 and the data from Japan, it is shown that a large meander of the Kuroshio appeared again during 1986-1988. The processes of formation , maturity and decline of this large meander are discussed in this study. The variation of the volume transport at Section Kb (PN) in the East China Sea is related to the large meander of the Kuroshio in the area south of Japan. By using maximum entropy spectrum analysis,the volume transport of the Kuroshio and the swing of its axis are analysed and their major periods are obained.     

Why does the Sea Level Difference between Kushimoto and Uragami Show Periods of Large Meander and Non-Large Meander Paths of the Kuroshio South of Japan?

The sea level difference between Kushimoto and Uragami, located to the west and east of the southern tip of the Kii Peninsula, is relatively large in periods of non-large meander path (nLMP) of the Kuroshio south of Japan in comparison with periods of large meander path (LMP). Based on this clear relationship, the sea level difference between Kushimoto and Uragami has been used as an index showing the periods of nLMP and those of LMP of the Kuroshio south of Japan. It has been pointed out that warm and saline Kuroshio water, separated from the main path of the Kuroshio, has a tendency to approach the western area off Kii Peninsula to off Muroto Peninsula in periods of nLMP, while it approaches the eastern area off Kii Peninsula to Omae-zaki in periods of LMP. On the basis of this observational evidences, the dynamic background underlaying the well-known relationship between the Kuroshio path and the sea level difference between Kushimoto and Uragami is examined in the present study, using the temperature and salinity data observed by Wakayama Prefectural Fisheries Experimental Station and Fisheries Research Institute of Mie. It is shown that deviations in vertically integrated specific volume off Kushimoto and Uragami almost equal deviations in observed sea level at Kushimoto and Uragami, respectively. It is also shown that the difference in vertically integrated specific volume between off Kushimoto and off Uragami almost equals the difference in observed sea level between Kushimoto and Uragami. As for the Kuroshio water, the high-temperature contribution is predominant for its specific volume rather than that of high salinity, which yields thermal expansion in comparison with coastal water. Because the difference in vertically integrated specific volume between off Kushimoto and off Uragami almost equals the difference in observed sea level between Kushimoto and Uragami, it is concluded that the relationship between the Kuroshio path and sea level difference between Kushimoto and Uragami is caused by the different approaching of the warm Kuroshio water between in nLMP periods and in LMP periods.     

Monitoring of generation and propagation of the Kuroshio small meander using sea level data along the southern coast of Japan

The occurrence of the small meander of the Kuroshio, generated south of Kyushu and propagating eastward, was examined using sea level data collected during 1961–1995 along the south coast of Japan. Intra-annual variation of the sea level was expanded by the frequency domain empirical orthogonal function (FDEOF) modes, and it was found that the second and third modes are useful for monitoring the generation and propagation of the small meander. The third FDEOF for periods of 10–100 days has a phase reversal between Hosojima and Tosa-shimizu with significant amplitude west of Kushimoto, and the amplitude of its time coefficient is large during the non-large-meander (NLM) period and has a significant peak when the small meander exists southeast of Kyushu. The second FDEOF for periods of 20–80 days has a phase reversal between Kushimoto and Uragami, and the amplitude of its time coefficient is large when the small meander propagates to the south of Shikoku. The third FDEOF mode allowed us to conclude that the small meander occurred 42 times from July 1961 to May 1995, most of them (38) occurring during the NLM periods. The second FDEOF mode permits the conclusion that half of the 38 small meanders reached south of Shikoku. Of these, five small meanders influenced transitions of the Kuroshio path from the nearshore NLM path; one caused the offshore NLM path and four brought about the large meander. About one-tenth of the total number of small meanders are related to the formation of the large meander.     

Coastal Disturbance in Sea Level Propagating along the South Coast of Japan and Its Impact on the Kuroshio

The coastal sea level propagating westward along the south coast of Japan and the impact of the disturbance on the generation of the Kuroshio small meander have been examined. The propagation occurs in sea level variations for periods shorter than 10 days and is remarkable for periods of 4–6 days. Characteristics of the 4–6 day component have been studied using the extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF). The first and second modes of EEOF are almost in-phase throughout the south coast of Japan. The higher four modes of EEOF are significantly excited when the Kuroshio takes the non-large-meander path, and propagate westward with phase speeds of 2.8 m s⁻¹ (third and fourth modes) and 1.6 m s⁻¹ (fifth and sixth modes) in the Kuroshio region west of Mera in the Boso Peninsula. The analysis shows that more than 70% of the small meanders generate in two months after a significant propagating disturbance reaches south of Kyushu when the velocity of the Kuroshio is high. This effect of coastal disturbance is examined by numerical experiments with a 2.5-layer model in which coastal disturbance is excited by vertical displacement of the upper interface. The result is that offshore displacement of the Kuroshio occurs southeast of Kyushu only in the case of significant upward displacement of the interface under the influence of a high Kuroshio velocity. The significant coastal disturbance, which is associated with upward displacement of the density interface, and a high Kuroshio velocity can therefore be important factors in generating small meanders.     

THE KUROSHIO (ON THE PN SECTION) IN THE EAST CHINA SEA DURING 1972-1983

The current elements of the Kuroshio in the East China Sea are analysed and discussed using the temperature-salinity and GEK data of the PN section obtained during 1972-1983. The calculations have proved (i) that the 12-year's mean volume transport of the Kuroshio at PN in the 0-800 m layer is about 20×106m3/s; (ii) that the mean volume transport has seasonal variations, i. e. slightly stronger in spring and summer than in the other seasons; and (iii) that the period of high-volume transport thereof corresponds to the appearance of a meander of the Kuroshio south of Japan. It is also discovered that this Kuroshio meander usually appears after a sharp increase in such volume transport. Finally, the differences of the Kuroshio volume transport between the PN, E and Suao-Yonakuni-jima sections are discussed.     

Long-term variability of the Kuroshio path south of Japan

This study investigates the long-term variability of the Kuroshio path south of Japan. Sensitivity experiments using a data-assimilative model suggest that the duration of the large meander (LM) strongly depends on the Kuroshio transport; specifically, low transport leads to a long duration of the LM. Actually, we find a good correlation between the duration of the past LMs and the Sverdrup transport estimated by a wind-driven linear baroclinic vorticity model. Then we explore favorable conditions for the LM and find a close relationship between the Kuroshio Extension (KE) state and the LM. That is, a precondition for the LM that the Kuroshio path on the Izu Ridge is fixed at a deep channel located around 34°N is achieved during a stable KE state. In addition, westward propagating signals with negative anomalies in the Kuroshio region and high sea-surface height (SSH) state east of Taiwan are key for generation of a small meander southeast of Kyushu that triggers a subsequent LM. The signals related to the above conditions change the upstream Kuroshio transport and velocity, which are consistent with features indicated by the former observational studies. Using reanalysis data, we construct long-time series of indices for the three conditions, which explain well the past LMs. The indices suggest that long-term non-LM states around 1970 and in the 1990s were attributed to a low-SSH state east of Taiwan and an unstable KE state, respectively.     

Two processes by which short-period fluctuations in the meander of the Kuroshio affect its countercurrent

Direct current velocity measurements in the countercurrent of the Kuroshio, south of Japan, were carried out to investigate the influence of short-period fluctuations in the small-scale meander of the Kuroshio on its countercurrent. When the Kuroshio took a path having a meander west of the Izu Ridge and approaching the Izu Peninsula, the countercurrent freely intruded into coastal seas with a period of 17 d and a phase velocity almost equal to that of the Kuroshio itself. However, when the Kuroshio did not significantly bend and deflect off the Izu Peninsula, even when taking the same path, the velocity of the countercurrent was considerably reduced and the periodic fluctuations propagated into the coastal seas as a continental shelf wave. The results indicate that a small change in the Kuroshio's path can cause a different process of propagation of the small-scale meandering; this difference probably explains why there are two kinds of phase velocity in coastal temperature fluctuations.     

Influence of Kuroshio Flow on the Horizontal Distribution of North Pacific Intermediate Water in the Shikoku Basin

The influence of the Kuroshio flow on the horizontal distribution of North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW) in the Shikoku Basin is examined based upon observational data collected by the training vessel “Seisui-maru” of Mie University together with oceanographic data compiled by the Japan Oceanographic Data Center (JODC). Although it has been stated that the NPIW with salinity less than 34.2 psu had been confined to the south of the Kuroshio main axis along the PT (KJ) Line on the eastern side of the Izu Ridge, a similar tendency can be detected on the western side of the Izu Ridge. Namely, the NPIW on the southern side of the Kuroshio main axis in the Shihoku Basin does not indicate a tendency to go northward across the Kuroshio main axis without an increase in salinity of more than 34.2 psu. However, the JODC data show that less saline water (<34.2 psu) was present on the northern side of the Kuroshio main axis south of the Kii Peninsula in May 1992. Satellite observed sea surface temperature (SST) data suggested that the Kuroshio approaches the Kii Peninsula after forming a small meander off Kyushu and some intrusions of the NPIW into the northern coastal side of the Kuroshio main axis occurred in this period. It is concluded that intrusion of the NPIW with salinity less than 34.2 psu to the northern coastal side through the Kuroshio main axis occurred during the decay period of the small meander path in May 1992. Based on these observational results, the source of the salinity minimum water on the northern coastal side of the Kuroshio main axis is discussed. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Index and Composites of the Kuroshio Meander South of Japan

Using the merged NOAA National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC)/Japan Oceanographic Data Center (JODC)/Marine Information Research Center (MIRC) historical hydrographic dataset, a new Kuroshio large meander (LM) index is introduced. This index helps to distinguish between the LM events and other types of Kuroshio Current (KC) variability south of Japan. Observations, re-systematized according to the index, provide composite patterns of typical formation and decay of the LM. The patterns reveal a remarkable similarity between individual LMs and support the deterministic rather than the stochastic model of LM evolution on a time-scale of one year. A “trigger” meander (TM) occurs on composite maps six months prior to the LM formation as a 1° latitude southward shift of the KC axis south of Kyushu. When propagating eastward along the coast of Japan, TM gradually increases in area. In principal the emergence of LM takes only one month. East of TM and LM a remarkable onshore shift of the KC is noticed, supplying the coastal region with warm water. Other warm anomalies are found on the warm side of KC next to the propagating TM and in the larger warm eddy area southeast of Kyushu. Different LMs survive for different times and decay in some months after KC “jumps” across the Izu Ridge. Changes of water properties on isopycnals in the interior of LM can be roughly described by two-layer kinematics with an interface at σ_θ = 27 which suggests a strong inflow of deep Kuroshio waters into the LM core during the formation of the latter. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.