Warm and cold events in the southeast Atlantic/southwest Indian Ocean region and potential impacts on circulation and rainfall over southern Africa

Summary An important pattern of interannual variability in the southern African region is one where sea surface temperature (SST) in neighbouring waters, particularly in the Agulhas Current, its retroflection region and outflow across the southern midlatitudes of the Indian Ocean, is anomalously warm or cool. Evidence exists of significant rainfall anomalies over large parts of southern Africa during these warm or cool SST events. Here, a general circulation model is used to study the response of the atmosphere in the region to an idealised representation of these SST anomalies. The induced atmospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies over the adjacent southern African landmass on intraseasonal through to interannual time scales are investigated.A nonlinear response to the SST anomalies is found in that the changes to the model atmosphere when warm SST forcing is used are not the reverse (in either pattern or magnitude) to that when cold SST forcing is imposed. For the warm SST anomaly, it is found that the atmospheric response is favourable for enhancement of the original SST anomaly on scales up to, and including, annual. However, as the scale becomes interannual (i.e., 15–21 months after imposition of the anomaly), the model response suggests that damping of the original SST anomaly becomes likely. However, no such coherent timescale dependent response is found when the cold SST anomaly is impose. It is suggested that the relationship of the SST anomaly to the background seasonal climatology may help explain this fundamental difference in the response.Examination of the circulation and rainfall patterns under warm SST forcing indicates that there are significant anomalies over large parts of southern Africa on all scales from intraseasonal through to interannual. On the south coast, rainfall anomalies result from enhanced evaporation of moisture off the SST anomaly. Over the interior, changer in the convergence of moist air streams together with suggestions of a shift in the Walker circulations between southern Africa and the bordering tropical South Atlantic and Indian Oceans appear to be associated with the rainfall anomalies. Similar mechanisms of rainfall perturbation are found when the cold SST anomaly is imposed; however, there is a significant response only on intra-annual to interannual scales. In all cases, the magnitude of the rainfall anomalies accumulated over a 90 day season were of the order of 90–180 mm, and therefore represent a significant fraction of the annual total of many areas. These model results re-inforce previous observational work suggesting that SST anomalies south of Africa, particularly in the retroflection region of the Agulhas Current, are linked with significant rainfall anomalies over the adjacent subcontinent.With 12 Figures     

我国东部梅雨期降水的年际和年代际变化特征及其与大气环流和海温的关系

基于我国160站59年(1951～2009年)的月降水观测资料、美国气象环境预报中心和国家大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)提供的再分析资料和Hadley中心的海表温度(Sea Surface Temperature,简称SST)资料,对我国东部(100°E以东,15°N～40°N)梅雨期(6月和7月)降水的时空变化特...     

Modification of the southern African rainfall variability/ENSO relationship since the late 1960s

Analysis of 149 raingauge series (1946–1988) shows a weak positive correlation between late summer rainfalls (January–March) in tropical southern Africa and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The correlation coefficients have been unstable since World War II. They were close to zero before 1970 and significant thereafter. Before 1970, southern African late summer rainfalls were more specifically correlated with regional patterns of sea surface temperature (SST), mainly over the southwestern Indian Ocean. After 1970, teleconnections with near global SST anomaly patterns, i.e. over the central Pacific and Indian oceans, dominate the regional connections. The increase in the sensitivity of the southern African rainfall to the global SO-related circulation anomalies is simultaneous with the correlation between SOI and more extensive SST anomalies, particularly over the southern Indian Ocean. This feature is part of longer term (decadal), global SST variability, as inferred from statistical analyses. Numerical experiments, using the Météo-France general circulation model ARPEGE-Climat, are performed to test the impact of the observed SST warming in the southern Indian and extratropical oceans during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on southern African rainfall. Simulated results show that ENSO events, which occurred in the relatively cold background of the pre-1970 period in the southern oceans, had a little effect on southern Africa climatic conditions and atmospheric circulation. By contrast, more recent ENSO events, with warmer SST over the southern oceans, lead to a climatic bipolar pattern between continental southern African and the western Indian Ocean, which is characterized by reduced (enhanced) deep convection and rainfall over the subcontinent (the western Indian Ocean). A weaker subtropical high-pressure belt in the southwestern Indian Ocean is also simulated, along with a reduced penetration of the moist southern Indian Ocean trade winds over the southern African plateau. These results are consistent with the strong droughts observed over all southern Africa during ENSO events since 1970.     

Factors controlling January�CApril rainfall over southern India and Sri Lanka

Most of the annual rainfall over India occurs during the Southwest (June?CSeptember) and Northeast (October?CDecember) monsoon periods. In March 2008, however, Southern peninsular India and Sri Lanka received the largest rainfall anomaly on record since 1979, with amplitude comparable to summer-monsoon interannual anomalies. This anomalous rainfall appeared to be modulated at intraseasonal timescale by the Madden Julian Oscillation, and was synchronous with a decaying La Ni?a event in the Pacific Ocean. Was this a coincidence or indicative of a teleconnection pattern? In this paper, we explore factors controlling rainfall over southern India and Sri Lanka between January and April, i.e. outside of the southwest and northeast monsoons. This period accounts for 20% of annual precipitation over Sri Lanka and 10% over the southern Indian states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Interannual variability is strong (about 40% of the January?CApril climatology). Intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over southern India and Sri Lanka are significantly associated with equatorial eastward propagation, characteristic of the Madden Julian Oscillation. At the interannual timescale, we find a clear connection with El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); with El Ni?os being associated with decreased rainfall (correlation of ?0.46 significant at the 98% level). There is also a significant link with local SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean, and in particular with the inter-hemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) gradient over the Indian Ocean (with colder SST south of the equator being conducive to more rainfall, correlation of 0.55 significant at the 99% level). La Ni?as/cold SSTs south of the equator tend to have a larger impact than El Ni?os. We discuss two possible mechanisms that could explain these statistical relationships: (1) subsidence over southern India remotely forced by Pacific SST anomalies; (2) impact of ENSO-forced regional Indian Ocean SST anomalies on convection. However, the length of the observational record does not allow distinguishing between these two mechanisms in a statistically significant manner.     

TROPICAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY AND INDIAN SUMMER MONSOON*

The time series of the sea surface temperature(SST) anomaly,covering the eastern (western) equatorial Pacific,central Indian Ocean,Arabian Sea.Bay of Bengal and South China Sea(SCS),have been analyzed by using wavelet transform.Results show that there exists same interdeeadal variability of SST in the tropical Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean,and also show that the last decadal abrupt change occurred in the 1970s.On the interannual time scale,there is a similar interannual variability among the equatorial central Indian Ocean and the adjacent three sea basins(Arabian Sea.Bay of Bengal and South China Sea).but the SST interannual changes of the Indian Ocean lagged 4-5 months behind that of the equatorial central-east Pacific.Meanwhile,the interannual variability and long-range change between SST anomaly and Indian summer monsoon rainfall in recent decades have been explained and analyzed.It indicates that there existed a wet(dry) period in India when the tropical SST was lower(higher)than normal,but there was a lag of phase between them.     

初夏孟加拉湾东部降水异常对印度洋海温偶极子的触发作用

基于1982—2013年逐月NCEP资料及GODAS资料,采用回归分析、合成分析以及2.5层简化海洋模式数值模拟等方法,研究了热带东印度洋的大气和海洋过程对印度洋海温偶极子(IOD,Indian Ocean Dipole)东极(IODE,IOD East pole)海温异常的影响。结果表明,IODE海温异常的演变超前IOD西极(IODW,IOD West pole)海温异常的演变,并对IOD事件的生成和发展起到关键作用。初夏,来自阿拉伯海、中南半岛地区以及孟加拉湾西南部的水汽输送,导致孟加拉湾东部出现强降水。降水释放的潜热在热带东印度形成了一个跨越赤道的经向环流,有利于加强赤道东印度洋的过赤道气流,并在苏门答腊沿岸形成偏南风异常。该异常偏南风通过影响混合层垂向夹卷混合过程和纬向平流过程,导致IODE海温迅速下降。随后赤道东南印度洋异常东南风迅速增强以及赤道中印度洋东风异常的出现,增强了自东南印度洋向西印度洋的水汽输送,削弱了向孟加拉湾的水汽输送,使西南印度洋的降水增强,孟加拉湾东部的降水减弱。因此,IOD达到盛期前孟加拉湾东部的降水通过局地经向环流在苏门答腊沿岸形成偏南风异常,导致苏门答腊沿岸迅速的降温,并最终导致IOD事件的发生。     

Interdecadal changes in the relationship between Southern China winter-spring precipitation and ENSO

Winter-spring precipitation in southern China tends to be higher (lower) than normal in El Niño (La Niña) years during 1953–1973. The relationship between the southern China winter-spring precipitation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is weakened during 1974–1994. During 1953–1973, above-normal southern China rainfall corresponds to warmer sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial central Pacific. There are two anomalous vertical circulations with ascent over the equatorial central Pacific and ascent over southern China and a common branch of descent over the western North Pacific that is accompanied by an anomalous lower-level anticyclone. During 1974–1994, above-normal southern China rainfall corresponds to warmer SST in eastern South Indian Ocean and cooler SST in western South Indian Ocean. Two anomalous vertical circulations act to link southern China rainfall and eastern South Indian Ocean SST anomalies, with ascent over eastern South Indian Ocean and southern China and a common branch of descent over the western North Pacific. Present analysis shows that South Indian Ocean SST anomalies can contribute to southern China winter-spring precipitation variability independently. The observed change in the relationship between southern China winter-spring rainfall and ENSO is likely related to the increased SST variability in eastern South Indian Ocean and the modulation of the Pacific decadal oscillation.     

Links between rainfall variability on intraseasonal and interannual scales over western Tanzania and regional circulation and SST patterns

Summary This study investigates the circulation anomalies associated with the intraseasonal evolution of wet and dry years over western Tanzania (29–37° E, 11.5–4.75° S) and how the onset and withdrawal of the rainy season as well as its wet spell characteristics are modified. It is found that for wet years, the rains begin earlier and end later, with strong wet spells occurring during the season, and there tend to be a greater number of moderate wet spells (although not necessarily more intense wet spells) than in dry years. In dry years, late onset and early cessation of the rainy season occur, often with an extended dry spell soon after the onset, and there tend to be a greater number of dry spells within the season. Large negative outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) anomaly values tend to be located between 20° and 40° E with anomalous westerly flow at 850 hPa occurring across the continent from 10° E to the tropical western Indian Ocean during wet spells in the anomalously wet seasons. Anomalously dry seasons are characterised by large positive OLR anomalies over 30–50° E as well as easterly anomalies at 850 hPa and westerly anomalies at 200 hPa. Eastward propagating intraseasonal anomalies are slower during the wet years implying that the convection remains over Tanzania longer. On the intraseasonal scale, Hovmoeller analyses of OLR and 850 and 200 hPa zonal wind indicate that convection over western Tanzania may be associated with a flux of moisture from the tropical southeast Atlantic and Congo basin followed by weak easterlies from the tropical western Indian Ocean.On interannual scales, wet (dry) years are characterized over the Indian Ocean by weaker (stronger) equatorial westerlies and weaker (stronger) trades that lead to less (more) export of equatorial moisture away from East Africa and increased (decreased) low-level moisture flux convergence over southern Tanzania, respectively. These anomalies arise from an anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly over the tropical western Indian Ocean during wet (dry) austral summers that may be related to cool (warm) SST anomalies there. Large scale modulation of the Indian Ocean Walker cell is also evident in both cases, but particularly for the dry years.Current affiliation: Tanzania Meteorological Agency, P.O. Box 3056, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania     

江西省夏季降水年际变化的机理研究

通过对观测资料和大气再分析资料的诊断分析,研究了影响江西省夏季降水变率的物理机制。结果表明江西省夏季降水存在显著的年际变率。极端条件下,降水偏多的夏季可达降水偏少的夏季的降水量的三倍。中纬度地区的准静止波列和热带关键海区的海温异常是造成江西夏季降水异常的主要原因。当江西省夏季降水偏多时,欧亚大陆地区存在"正—负—正"的准正压Rossby波列结构,位于贝加尔湖的正活动中心能引导干冷空气南下,从而有利于江南地区的锋生和江西降水的增加。此外,当江西省夏季降水偏多时,前期冬季中东太平洋地区有El Ni1o事件的活动,并能通过大气桥在夏季印度洋地区形成正海温异常。通过"印度洋电容器"机制,印度洋的暖海温能激发向东传播的Kelvin波,引起菲律宾地区降水的减少。菲律宾地区抑制的降水能激发向北传播的EAP/PJ波列,使得西太平洋副热带高压西伸增强,从而有利于水汽向江南地区的输送,并造成江西夏季的降水增加。     

印度洋对ENSO事件的响应:观测与模拟

观测事实显示,在El Ni(n～)o期间,伴随着赤道中东太平洋表层海温(SST)的升高,热带印度洋SST出现正距平.作者利用海气耦合模式模拟了印度洋对ENSO事件的上述响应,并进而讨论了其物理机制.所用模式为法国国家科研中心Pierre-Simon-Laplace 全球环境科学联合实验室(IPSL)发展的全球海气耦合模式.该模式成功地控制了气候漂移,能够合理再现印度洋的基本气候态.观测中与ENSO相关的热带印度洋SST变化,表现为全海盆一致的正距平,并且这种变化要滞后赤道中东太平洋SST变化大约一个季度,意味着它主要是对东太平洋SST强迫的一种遥响应,模式结果也支持这一机制,尽管模式中的南方涛动现象被夸大了,使得模拟的与ENSO相关联的SST正距平的位置南移,阿拉伯海和孟加拉湾被负距平(而不是正距平)所控制.研究表明,东太平洋主要通过大气桥影响潜热释放来影响印度洋SST变化.赤道东太平洋El Ni(n～)o事件的发展,导致印度洋上空风场异常自东而西传播;伴随着风场的变化,潜热发生相应变化,并最终导致SST异常的发生.非洲东海岸受索马里急流控制的海域,其SST的变化不能简单地利用热通量的变化来解释.证据显示,印度洋的增暖是ENSO事件发生的结果而不是其前期信号.     

Secular spring rainfall variability at local scale over Ethiopia: trend and associated dynamics

Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and model simulations. The joint coherent spatio-temporal secular variability of gridded monthly gauge rainfall over Ethiopia, ERA-Interim atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature (SST) from Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST (HadISST) data set is extracted using multi-taper method singular value decomposition (MTM-SVD). The contemporaneous associations are further examined using partial Granger causality to determine presence of causal linkage between any of the climate variables. This analysis reveals that only the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly has direct causal links with spring rainfall over Ethiopia and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) over Africa inspite of the strong secular covariance of spring rainfall, SST in parts of subtropical Pacific, Atlantic, Indian Ocean and MSLP. High secular rainfall variance and statistically significant linear trend show consistently that there is a massive decline in spring rain over southern Ethiopia. This happened concurrently with significant buildup of MSLP over East Africa, northeastern Africa including parts of the Arabian Peninsula, some parts of central Africa and SST warming over all ocean basins with the exception of the ENSO regions. The east-west pressure gradient in response to the Indian Ocean warming led to secular southeasterly winds over the Arabian Sea, easterly over central Africa and equatorial Atlantic. These flows weakened climatological northeasterly flow over the Arabian Sea and southwesterly flow over equatorial Atlantic and Congo basins which supply moisture into the eastern Africa regions in spring. The secular divergent flow at low level is concurrent with upper level convergence due to the easterly secular anomalous flow. The mechanisms through which the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly modulates rainfall are further explored in the context of East Africa using a simplified atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to mixed-layer oceanic model. The rainfall anomaly (with respect to control simulation), forced by the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly and averaged over the 30-year period, exhibits prevalence of dry conditions over East and equatorial Africa in agreement with observation. The atmospheric response to secular SST warming anomaly led to divergent flow at low levels and subsidence at the upper troposphere over regions north of 5^° S on the continent and vice versa over the Indian Ocean. This surface difluence over East Africa, in addition to its role in suppressing convective activity, deprives the region of moisture supply from the Indian Ocean as well as the Atlantic and Congo basins.     

我国西南地区秋季降水年际变化的空间差异及其成因

使用1980～2010年全国站点降水资料、ERA-Interim再分析环流资料、哈德莱海表温度资料,运用聚类分析和旋转经验正交函数分解,对西南地区的秋季降水按照其年际变化规律进行分区,进而分析影响各区域降水变化的物理过程和机理。结果表明:西南地区被分为东、西两个区域。西南东、西区域秋季降水的年际变化、显著周期、旱涝异常年份、相关的环流系统都有明显差异。西南东部秋季降水主要与热带海温异常有关,受低纬度环流影响。当赤道东太平洋为暖海温异常,热带印度洋为西正东负的偶极子型海温异常时,分别激发出西北太平洋反气旋和孟加拉反气旋,共同向西南东部输送水汽,造成西南东部降水偏多。西南西部降水在秋季三个月份与不同的环流形势对应:9月降水由中南半岛反气旋输送的暖湿气流决定;10月降水受高原以东反气旋环流和孟加拉湾低槽共同影响;11月降水主要受中高纬环流异常的影响,与斯堪的纳维亚遥相关存在显著负相关。     

Decadal change in the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation

A decadal change in activity of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) was identified at a broad scale. The change was more prominent during August–October in the boreal summer. The BSISO activity during 1999–2008 (P2) was significantly greater than that during 1984–1998 (P1). Compared to P1, convection in the BSISO was enhanced and the phase speed of northward-propagating convection was reduced in P2. Under background conditions, warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in P2 were apparent over the tropical Indian Ocean and the western tropical Pacific. The former supplied favorable conditions for the active convection of the BSISO, whereas the latter led to a strengthened Walker circulation through enhanced convection. This induced descending anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean. Thermal convection tends to be suppressed by descending anomalies, whereas once an active BSISO signal enters the Indian Ocean, convection is enhanced through convective instability by positive SST anomalies. After P2, the BSISO activity was weakened during 2009–2014 (P3). Compared to P2, convective activity in the BSISO tended to be inactive over the southern tropical Indian Ocean in P3. The phase speed of the northward-propagating convection was accelerated. Under background conditions during P3, warmer SST anomalies over the maritime continent enhance convection, which strengthened the local Hadley circulation between the western tropical Pacific and the southern tropical Indian Ocean. Hence, the convection in the BSISO over the southern tropical Indian Ocean was suppressed. The decadal change in BSISO activity correlates with the variability in seasonal mean SST over the tropical Asian monsoon region, which suggests that it is possible to predict the decadal change.

     

Role of TBO and ENSO scale ocean–atmosphere interaction in the Indo-Pacific region on Asian summer monsoon variability

Interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall has two dominant periodicities, one on the quasi-biennial (2–3 year) time scale corresponding to tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) and the other on low frequency (3–7 year) corresponding to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the present study, the spatial and temporal patterns of various atmospheric and oceanic parameters associated with the Indian summer monsoon on the above two periodicities were investigated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets for the period 1950–2005. Influences of Indian and Pacific Ocean SSTs on the monsoon season rainfall are different for both of the time scales. Seasonal evolution and movement of SST and Walker circulation are also different. SST and velocity potential anomalies are southeast propagating on the TBO scale, while they are stationary on the ENSO scale. Latent heat flux and relative humidity anomalies over the Indian Ocean and local Hadley circulation between the Indian monsoon region and adjacent oceans have interannual variability only on the TBO time scale. Local processes over the Indian Ocean determine the Indian Ocean SST in biennial periodicity, while the effect of equatorial east Pacific SST is significant in the ENSO periodicity. TBO scale variability is dependent on the local factors of the Indian Ocean and the Indian summer monsoon, while the ENSO scale processes are remotely controlled by the Pacific Ocean.     

冬季和春季印度洋海温异常年际变率模态对中国东部夏季降水的可能影响过程

印度洋热力状况是影响全球气候变化和亚洲季风变异的一个重要的因素,但以往研究更多关注热带印度洋海温的变化,对南印度洋中高纬地区海温变化关注不够,由此限制了我们对印度洋的全面认识.本文研究了年际尺度上整个印度洋海温异常主导模态的特征及其对我国东部地区夏季降水的可能影响过程,以期望为气候变异研究及预测提供理论依据.研究结果表明:全印度洋海温异常年际变率的主导模态特征是在南印度洋副热带地区海温异常呈现西南—东北反向变化的偶极子模态,西极子位于马达加斯加以东南洋面,东极子位于澳大利亚以西洋面;同时,热带印度洋海温异常与东极子一致.当西极子为正的海温异常,东极子、热带印度洋为负异常时定义为正的印度洋海温异常年际变率模态;反之,则为负的印度洋海温异常年际变率模态.从冬至春,印度洋海温异常年际变率模态具有较好的季节持续性;与我国长江中游地区夏季降水显著负相关,而与我国华南地区夏季降水显著正相关.其可能的影响过程为:对于正的冬、春季印度洋海温异常年际变率模态事件,印度洋地区异常纬向风的经向大气遥相关使得热带印度洋盛行西风异常,导致春、夏季海洋性大陆对流减弱,使夏季西太平洋副热带高压强度偏弱、位置偏东偏北,造成华南地区夏季降水增多,长江中游地区降水减少;反之亦然.同时,印度洋海温异常年际变率模态可通过改变印度洋和孟加拉湾向长江中游地区的水汽输送而影响其夏季降水.     

THE INTERANNUAL AND DECADAL VARIABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR YUNNAN PROVINCE IN RAINY SEASON AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH TROPICAL UPPER LAYER HEAT CONTENT

Based on the monthly precipitation data of 126 observation stations from 1961 to 2000 in Yunnan Province, the interannual and decadal variability of precipitation in rainy seasons are studied by using wavelet analysis. It is shownthat there is a 2 - 6 year oscillation at the interannual time scales and a quasi-30 year oscillation at the decadal time scales. These periodic oscillations relate to the distribution of tropical heat content. When the precipitation is much more (less) than normal, the upper seawater is colder (warmer) in almost all the tropical Indian Ocean, and warmer (colder) in the western Pacific as well ascolder (warmer) in the eastern Pacific. The key areas of the anomaly heat content distribution that have significant correlation to the Yunnan precipitation inrainy season are in the southern hemispheric Indian Ocean with a dipole patternin the winter as well as in the deep basin of the South China Sea (SCS) before the Yunnan rainy season begins. Therefore, the anomalous distributions of the heat content in the southern Indian Ocean and the SCS in winter are good indicators for predicting drought or flood in Yunnan Province in the following rainy season.     

An analysis of onset date and rainy season duration over Zambia

Summary This study investigates the onset and cessation dates of the main summer rainy season over Zambia, their interannual variability, and potential relationships with ENSO and regional circulation anomalies. Focus is placed on onset and cessation dates because these rainy season characteristics are often of more relevance than seasonal rainfall totals to user groups such as farmers, water resource managers, health and tourism officials. It is found that there is substantial interannual variability in these parameters with some indications of a relationship between anomalies in onset date and those in Ni?o3.4 SST, particularly over the northern part of the country. A strong gradient exists between the south and the north in terms of rainfall amount, mean onset date and mean cessation date and all areas of the country experience significant variability. Analysis of circulation anomalies for early (late) onset seasons over northern Zambia shows that they are characterised by anomalous ridging (troughing) over and south of South Africa, a weaker (stronger) Angola heat low and enhanced (reduced) low level moisture flux into eastern Zambia from the Indian Ocean. The connection with ENSO during the onset season of austral spring appears to arise both through changes in the amount of subsidence over southern Africa as well as via the so-called Pacific South America pattern that extends across the South Pacific and South Atlantic towards southern Africa. Authors’ address: S. Hachigonta, C. J. C. Reason, M. Tadross, Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa.     

我国夏季降水与全球海温的耦合关系分析

利用我国160个台站从1951~2000年的月降水观测资料和NCEP/NCAR的全球海表温度(SST)资料,分析了我国夏季(6、7、8月)降水的时空变化特征及其与海温的相关,并应用奇异值分解(SVD)方法研究了我国夏季降水分布异常与海温变化的耦合关系。结果表明,我国夏季降水异常的雨型分布主要有3种,这些雨型的时间变化除了有明显的年际变化外,还存在显著的年代际变化。尤其是华北地区的降水从1965年左右开始减少,特别是大约1976年后有显著的减少。SVD分析揭示的我国夏季降水和全球海温异常的耦合关系表明,这种耦合关系最主要的时空变化特征表现在年代际变化的时间尺度上。我国华北和东北南部的夏季降水从1976年前后明显减少,与之显著关联的海温异常的关键区包括太平洋、印度洋以及热带和南大西洋。特别是热带中、东太平洋,印度洋,以及热带和南大西洋海水,从1976年前后也明显增暖。本研究揭示的华北持续干旱与印度洋和大西洋海温的年代际变化的耦合关系,在以往的研究中还未见到,因而有必要在今后的研究中加以重视。我国夏季降水和海温的耦合关系,还表现在长江中下游地区的降水异常与太平洋和大西洋海温异常的显著相关上。当南海和黑潮区域以及相邻的热带西太平洋海区海温为正异常时,热带和北大西洋海温也为正异常;而热带中、东太平洋海温为负异常时,长江中下游地区往往偏涝;反之,该地区则偏旱。     

THE INTERANNUAL AND DECADAL VARIABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR YUNNAN PROVINCE IN RAINY SEASON AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH TROPICAL UPPER LAYER TEAT CONTENT

~~THE INTERANNUAL AND DECADAL VARIABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR YUNNAN PROVINCE IN RAINY SEASON AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH TROPICAL UPPER LAYER TEAT CONTENT@郑春怡$Meteorological Observatory of Yunnan Province, Kunming 650034 China @黄菲$Department of Marine Meteorology, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003 China @普贵明$Meteorological Observatory of Yunnan Province, Kunming 650034 China~~…     

Pacific decadal oscillation and variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Recent studies have furnished evidence for interdecadal variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The importance of this phenomenon in causing persistent anomalies over different regions of the globe has drawn considerable attention in view of its relevance in climate assessment. Here, we examine multi-source climate records in order to identify possible signatures of this longer time scale variability on the Indian summer monsoon. The findings indicate a coherent inverse relationship between the inter-decadal fluctuations of Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) and the Indian monsoon rainfall during the last century. A warm (cold) phase of the Pacific interdecadal variability is characterized by a decrease (increase) in the monsoon rainfall and a corresponding increase (decrease) in the surface air temperature over the Indian subcontinent. This interdecadal relationship can also be confirmed from the teleconnection patterns evident from long-period sea level pressure (SLP) dataset. The SLP anomalies over South and Southeast Asia and the equatorial west Pacific are dynamically consistent in showing an out-of-phase pattern with the SLP anomalies over the tropical central-eastern Pacific. The remote influence of the Pacific interdecadal variability on the monsoon is shown to be associated with prominent signals in the tropical and southern Indian Ocean indicative of coherent inter-basin variability on decadal time scales. If indeed, the atmosphere–ocean coupling associated with the Pacific interdecadal variability is independent from that of the interannual El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), then the climate response should depend on the evolutionary characteristics of both the time scales. It is seen from our analysis that the Indian monsoon is more vulnerable to drought situations, when El Niño events occur during warm phases of the Pacific interdecadal variability. Conversely, wet monsoons are more likely to prevail, when La Niña events coincide during cold phases of the Pacific interdecadal variability.