Quantitative comparison of river inflows to a rapidly expanding lake in central Tibetan Plateau

The recent rapid expansion of inland lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are a good indicator of the consequences of climate change. Quantifying the hydrological cycle of the lake basin is fundamentally important to understand the causes of lake growth. However, the hydrological processes of the TP interior are very complex and difficult to investigate because of the lack of observations. This is especially true for estimating the lake changes when run‐off inflows are affected by small lakes located in the flow routes within drainage areas. We used an integrated hydrological model, in combination with glacier melt and lake retention models, to analyse the run‐off inflows to Lake Siling Co, the largest endorheic lake in Tibet. It includes four subdrainage basins: Zhajiazangbu, Zhagenzangbu, Alizangbu, and Boquzangbu. Lake Siling Co was characterized by considerable increases during warm season from 1981 to 2012, due to the increased run‐off from Zhajiazangbu accounting for about 51–62% of the total run‐off inflows. Moreover, the dramatic increases exhibited during cold seasons were related to the increased retention water released from the small lakes within Zhagenzangbu and Alizangbu. Of the studied subdrainage basins, Boquzangbu contributed the least during both warm and cold seasons. On average, the annual amount of evaporation from lakes within the drainage area was about 2 times greater than that of glacier melt run‐off. Our results suggest that the retention effects of lakes on river inflows should receive more attention, because understanding these effects is potentially crucial to improved understanding of lake variations in the TP.     

近40a西藏羊卓雍错湖泊面积变化遥感分析

羊卓雍错(以下简称羊湖)作为西藏高原三大圣湖之一和藏南重要的高原特色风景旅游景区,其具体面积众说纷纭.本文利用遥感和地理信息空间分析方法对1972-2010年羊湖面积变化进行了系统研究,并结合流域气象站资料对其原因进行初步分析.结果表明,1972-2010年湖泊平均面积为643.98 km2.1972-2010年羊湖面积呈波动式减少趋势,其中,1970s平均面积为658.78 km2,之后至1999年面积显著减少;1980s面积为636.55 km2;1990s为635.06 km2;1999-2004年面积有所增加;2004-2010年持续缩小,减幅为8.59 km2/a.湖泊空间变化特点是除了空母错和珍错两个小湖面积变化较小之外,羊湖整体面积呈现萎缩态势,其中东部嘎马林曲入口附近退缩程度最大,达1.62 km.流域气象站资料分析表明,湖泊面积和降水的变化波动存在显著耦合关系,降水变化是羊湖面积变化的主要原因;其次,流域蒸发量的明显增加,特别是2004年来连续较高的蒸发量是导致近期面积显著减少的重要原因,气温的升高进一步加剧了这一过程.羊湖的面积变化基本反映了西藏高原南部半干早季风气候区以降水补给为主的高原内陆湖泊对气候变化的响应.     

GLEAM和MOD16蒸散发产品在青藏高原中东南湖泊流域的适用性评价

GLEAM(Global Land Evapotranspiration Amsterdam Model)和MOD16(MODIS Global Evapotranspiration Project)全球蒸散发产品已经得到了广泛的检验和应用,但由于观测资料缺乏,尚缺少对高原地区的检验。本文以青藏高原然乌湖流域、羊卓雍错流域、纳木错流域、色林错流域和塔若错流域为检验区域,利用流域水量平衡法,采用相关系数、相对误差、均方根误差和Kling-Gupta系数,对这两种蒸散产品开展了精度验证与评价。结果表明:GLEAM蒸散发产品在然乌湖、色林错和塔若错流域整体存在低估现象,在羊卓雍错和纳木错流域存在轻微高估现象,而MOD 16产品仅在色林错流域有轻微低估现象,在其他湖泊流域均表现为高估;GLEAM和MOD16蒸散发产品在5个湖泊流域年降水量较少的年份均存在高估的现象,在湿润年份则为低估;GLEAM产品在然乌湖流域、羊卓雍错流域和色林错流域的验证结果相对较好,而MOD16产品在纳木错流域和塔若错流域的验证精度相对较高;总体而言,在年尺度和多年平均尺度下,GLEAM蒸散发产品在青藏高原中东南湖泊流域...     

Tracking hydrological responses of a thermokarst lake in the Old Crow Flats (Yukon Territory,Canada) to recent climate variability using aerial photographs and paleolimnological methods

Recent studies using remote sensing analysis of lake‐rich thermokarst landscapes have documented evidence of declining lake surface area in response to recent warming. However, images alone cannot identify whether these declines are due to increasing frequency of lake drainage events associated with accelerated thermokarst activity or to increasing evaporation in response to longer ice‐free season duration. Here, we explore the potential of combining aerial photograph time series with paleolimnological analyses to track changes in hydrological conditions of a thermokarst lake in the Old Crow Flats (OCF), Canada, and to identify their causes. Images show that the water level in lake OCF 48 declined markedly sometime between 1972 and 2001. In a sediment core from OCF 48, complacent stratigraphic profiles of several physical, geochemical, and biological parameters from ～1874–1967 indicate hydro‐limnological conditions were relatively stable. From ～1967–1989, declines in organic matter content, organic carbon isotope values, and pigment concentrations are interpreted to reflect an increase in supply of minerogenic sediment, and subsequent decline in aquatic productivity, caused by increased thermo‐erosion of shoreline soils. Lake expansion was likely caused by increased summer rainfall, as recorded by increased cellulose‐inferred lake‐water oxygen isotope compositions. Stratigraphic trends defining the lake expansion phase terminated at ～1989, which likely marks the year when the lake drained. Above‐average precipitation during the previous year probably raised the lake level and promoted further thermo‐erosion of the shoreline soils that caused the lake to drain. These are meteorological conditions that have led to other recent lake‐drainage events in the OCF. Thus, the decline in lake level, evident in the aerial photograph from 2001, is unlikely to have been caused by evaporation, but rather is a remnant of a drainage event that took place more than a decade earlier. After drainage, the lake began to refill, and most paleolimnological parameters approach levels that are similar to those during the stable phase. These findings indicate that combined use of aerial images and paleolimnological methods offers much promise for identifying the hydrological consequences of recent climatic variations on thermokarst lakes. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Net groundwater inflow in an enclosed lake: from synoptic variations to climatic projections

Using lake Stechlin in northeastern Germany as an example of a small groundwater‐feed lake without surface inflows and outflows, we estimated the temporal scales and the variability ranges of the net groundwater contribution to the lake water budget. High‐resolution water level measurements by a bottom‐mounted pressure logger provided the background for the estimation of the total lake water budget. This method has demonstrated reliability for estimation of lake level variations during periods ranging from subdiurnal to perennial. The typical amplitudes of the synoptic‐to‐perennial variability characterizing the groundwater climate of lake Stechlin are estimated by comparing the two subsequent years 2006 and 2007; one of these years shows an extremely high, and the other an extremely low, annual precipitation–evaporation balance. The net groundwater flow, estimated as the difference between the total water budget and the precipitation–evaporation balance at the surface, revealed synoptic effects of lake water exfiltration into the groundwater aquifer following strong precipitation events. Perennial variations between wet and dry years superimposed seasonal oscillations. The probable origin of the latter is seasonality in the groundwater level on the watershed, although the exact amplitudes are subject to further quantification on account of seasonality in the evaporation estimation error. The results emphasize the non‐stationary behaviour of groundwater flow on timescales shorter than climatic ones. The analysis yielded a net quantitative relationship between groundwater flow and water balance at the lake surface: The water level changes in the lake due to evaporation and precipitation are damped to 60% because of the lake–groundwater exchange by means of intermittent infiltration and exfiltration events. Assuming the remaining 40% of the surface water budget may potentially result in perennial water level variability, we estimated an effect of the precipitation decrease on the lake water budget as predicted by the regional climate scenarios for the next century. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sensitivity of the multiannual thermal dynamics of a deep pre‐alpine lake to climatic change

The study of the multiannual thermal dynamics of Lake Iseo, a deep lake in the Italian pre‐alpine area, is presented. Interflow was found to be the dominant river entrance mode, suggesting future susceptibility of the lake thermal structure to the overall effects of climate change expected in the upstream alpine watershed. A lake model employed the results of a long‐term hydrologic model to simulate the effects of a climate change scenario on the lake's thermal evolution for the period 2012–2050. The model predicts an overall average increase in the lake water temperature of 0.012 °C/year and a reinforced Schmidt thermal stability of the water column in the winter up to 800 J/m². Both these effects may further hinder the deep circulation process, which is vital for the oxygenation of deep water. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrogeological response to climate change in alpine hillslopes

Climate change threatens water resources in snowmelt‐dependent regions by altering the fraction of snow and rain and spurring an earlier snowmelt season. The bulk of hydrological research has focused on forecasting response in streamflow volumes and timing to a shrinking snowpack; however, the degree to which subsurface storage offsets the loss of snow storage in various alpine geologic settings, i.e. the hydrogeologic buffering capacity, is still largely unknown. We address this research need by assessing the affects of climate change on storage and runoff generation for two distinct hydrogeologic settings present in alpine systems: a low storage granitic and a greater storage volcanic hillslope. We use a physically based integrated hydrologic model fully coupled to a land surface model to run a base scenario and then three progressive warming scenarios, and account for the shifts in each component of the water budget. For hillslopes with greater water retention, the larger storage volcanic hillslope buffered streamflow volumes and timing, but at the cost of greater reductions in groundwater storage relative to the low storage granite hillslope. We found that the results were highly sensitive to the unsaturated zone retention parameters, which in the case of alpine systems can be a mix of matrix or fracture flow. The presence of fractures and thus less retention in the unsaturated zone significantly decreased the reduction in recharge and runoff for the volcanic hillslope in climate warming scenarios. This approach highlights the importance of incorporating physically based subsurface flow in to alpine hydrology models, and our findings provide ways forward to arrive at a conceptual model that is both consistent with geology and hydrologic principles. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling surface‐water depression storage in a Prairie Pothole Region

In this study, the Precipitation‐Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) was used to simulate changes in surface‐water depression storage in the 1,126‐km² Upper Pipestem Creek basin located within the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, USA. The Prairie Pothole Region is characterized by millions of small water bodies (or surface‐water depressions) that provide numerous ecosystem services and are considered an important contribution to the hydrologic cycle. The Upper Pipestem PRMS model was extracted from the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Hydrologic Model (NHM), developed to support consistent hydrologic modelling across the conterminous United States. The Geospatial Fabric database, created for the USGS NHM, contains hydrologic model parameter values derived from datasets that characterize the physical features of the entire conterminous United States for 109,951 hydrologic response units. Each hydrologic response unit in the Geospatial Fabric was parameterized using aggregated surface‐water depression area derived from the National Hydrography Dataset Plus, an integrated suite of application‐ready geospatial datasets. This paper presents a calibration strategy for the Upper Pipestem PRMS model that uses normalized lake elevation measurements to calibrate the parameters influencing simulated fractional surface‐water depression storage. Results indicate that inclusion of measurements that give an indication of the change in surface‐water depression storage in the calibration procedure resulted in accurate changes in surface‐water depression storage in the water balance. Regionalized parameterization of the USGS NHM will require a proxy for change in surface‐storage to accurately parameterize surface‐water depression storage within the USGS NHM.     

Water balance of Lake Tana and its sensitivity to fluctuations in rainfall,Blue Nile basin,Ethiopia

The annual water budget of Lake Tana is determined from estimates of runoff, rainfall on the lake, measured outflow and empirically determined evaporation. Simulation of lake level variation (1960–1992) has been conducted through modeling at a monthly time step. Despite the ±20% rainfall variations in the Blue Nile basin in the last 50 years, the lake level remained regular. A preliminary analysis of the sensitivity of level and outflow of the lake suggests that they are controlled more by variation in rainfall than by basin-scale forcing induced by human activities. The analysis shows that a drastic (40–45%) and sustained (7–8 years) rainfall reduction is required to change the lake from out flowing to terminal (cessation of outflow). However, the outflow from the lake shows significant variation responding to the rainfall variations. Unlike the terminal lakes in the Ethiopian rift valley or the other large lakes of Tropical Africa, at its present hydrologic condition, the Lake Tana level is less sensitive to rainfall variation and changes in catchment characteristics.     

Isotopic variation in the lake water balance at the Yamdruk‐tso basin,southern Tibetan Plateau

The use of stable isotopes is a practical tool in the study of the lake water budget. This is an one way to study the hydrological cycle in the large numbers of inland lakes on the Tibetan Plateau, in which the isotope record of the sediment is believed to reflect the climatic and environmental changes. The monitoring of stable isotopes of the precipitation, river and lake waters during 2004 in the inland Yamdruk‐tso basin, southern Tibetan Plateau, reveals the lake water δ¹⁸O is over 10‰ higher than the local precipitation. This high difference indicates strong isotope enrichment due to lake water evaporation. The simulation results based on the isotope technique show that the present lake water δ¹⁸O level corresponds to an average relative humidity of around 54–58% during evaporation, which is very close to the instrumental observation. The simulation results also show that the inland lakes on the Tibetan Plateau have a strong adjustability to the isotope shift of input water δ¹⁸O. On average, the isotope component in the inland lake water is to a large extent controlled by the local relative humidity, and can also be impacted by a shift of the local precipitation isotope component. This is probably responsible for the large consistence in the isotope component in the extensive inland lakes on the Tibetan Plateau. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Surface and subsurface water contributions to streamflow from a mesoscale watershed in complex mountain terrain

An understanding of surface and subsurface water contributions to streamflow is essential for accurate predictions of water supply from mountain watersheds that often serve as water towers for downstream communities. As such, this study used the end‐member mixing analysis technique to investigate source water contributions and hydrologic flow paths of the 264 km² Boulder Creek Watershed, which drains the Colorado Front Range, USA. Four conservative hydrochemical tracers were used to describe this watershed as a 3 end‐member system, and tracer concentration reconstruction suggested that the application of end‐member mixing analysis was robust. On average from 2009 to 2011, snowmelt and rainwater from the subalpine zone and groundwater sampled from the upper montane zone contributed 54%, 22%, and 24% of the annual streamflow, respectively. These values demonstrate increased rainwater and decreased snow water contributions to streamflow relative to area‐weighted mean values derived from previous work at the headwater scale. Young water (2.3 ± 0.8 months) fractions of streamflow decreased from 18–22% in the alpine catchment to 8–10% in the lower elevation catchments and the watershed outlet with implications for subsurface storage and hydrological connectivity. These results contribute to a process‐based understanding of the seasonal source water composition of a mesoscale watershed that can be used to extrapolate headwater streamflow generation predictions to larger spatial scales.     

Canopy rainfall storage capacity as affected by sub‐alpine grassland degradation in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau,China

Grassland degradation resulting from global climate change, overgrazing, and rodent damage is expected to influence the magnitude of canopy hydrological fluxes because of reduced vegetation biomass and changed species composition. The objectives of this study were to estimate herbaceous canopy rainfall storage capacity (S) along three different stages of sub‐alpine grassland degradation (non‐degraded, lightly degraded and moderately degraded) in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, China, and relate changes in S to canopy properties. An artificial wetting method and the water budget balance method, using rain simulations, were used for estimating S. Grassland degradation significantly reduced S. In non‐degraded, lightly degraded and moderately degraded grasslands, S estimated using the artificial wetting method were 0.612 ± 0.08 mm, 0.289 ± 0.04 mm, and 0.217 ± 0.01 mm, respectively; S estimated using the water budget balance method were 0.979 ± 0.32 mm, 0.493 ± 0.13 mm, and 0.419 ± 0.09 mm, respectively. These changes could be explained by accompanying changes in above‐ground biomass and leaf area index, as well as changes in species composition. Species‐specific rainfall storage capacity varied by a factor of 2.7 among the investigated species, with graminoids having the lowest values. Leaf area index was more correlated to S than was canopy coverage. Converting fresh weight of non‐leaf tissues into effective leaf area of the corresponding species and then introducing a coefficient of leaf area according to the specific storage capacity of leaves improved the linear relationship between S and leaf area index. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using stable isotopes 18O and 2H of lake water and biogeochemical analysis to identify factors affecting water quality in four estuarine Amazonian shallow lakes

Stable isotopes analyses of oxygen and hydrogen of lake water were used to estimate the effect of evaporation (E) on the water quality of four shallow lakes in the Amapá State coast—Amazon/Brazil. These lakes, with different size and hydrologic conditions, were sampled during the course of the 2015/2016 El‐Niño (record‐breaking warming/drought in the Amazon rainforest). Hydrometeorological and water quality parameters were simultaneously performed to the isotopic sampling. The results showed that the evaporation process and the water quality can be explained by climate season and distances from the Atlantic Ocean. Lake evaporation losses ranged from ≈0–22% during the wet season in April/2016 and ≈35.7% during the dry season in November/2015. As expected, the evaporation of lake water was greater during the dry season, but it was higher for lakes farther away from the Atlantic Ocean compared with more coastal lakes due to tidal preponderance and the influence of major river channels. The more inland estuarine lakes showed a lower level of salinity (0.00–0.03 ppt) compared with those closer to the Atlantic Ocean (0.01–0.08 ppt). The El Niño phenomenon, with a lower precipitation in the Amazon basin, may initiate salinization of lakes closer to the Atlantic Ocean. Furthermore, strong mean seasonal variations of evaporation (0.06 ≤ E ≤ 0.22) and other hydrologic parameters were observed (precipitation, water temperature, and water depth), with significant effects on the water quality such as salinity, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll (p < .05). We conclude that the occurrence of the extreme climatic events can disrupt the biogeochemical and hydrological balance of these aquatic ecosystems and salinization of lakes closer to the Atlantic Ocean.     

青藏高原色林错流域区冰川消融对湖泊水量变化的影响

青藏高原大部分湖泊近年来持续扩张,湖泊水位和水量明显增加.冰川消融是流域水量平衡和水循环的重要影响因素,直接导致湖泊水量变化.由于缺乏大范围的冰川质量平衡观测结果,青藏高原冰川消融对湖泊水量变化的影响仍存在较大争议.本文选择青藏高原内流区的色林错流域区(水系编号5Z2)作为研究对象,利用SRTM DEM和TanDEM-X双站InSAR数据,精确估算该流域三个主要冰川区(普若岗日、格拉丹东和西念青唐古拉)2000—2012年的冰川质量平衡,依次为:-0.020±0.030、-0.128±0.049、-0.143±0.032m·w.e.·a^-1.并据此采用面积加权法准确推估出5Z2流域的冰川质量变化为:-0.166±0.021Gt·a^-1.综合ICESat和Cryosat-2卫星测高数据,计算该流域2003—2012年湖泊水量变化速率(3.006±0.202Gt·a^-1),并定量评估冰川质量变化对5Z2流域湖泊水量增加的贡献为:5.52%±1.07%,因此在青藏高原色林错流域区,冰川消融不是导致21世纪初期湖泊水位上升的主要因素.     

Rapid shoreline flooding enhances water turbidity by sediment resuspension: An example in a large Tibetan lake

Rapid water level rise due to climate change has the potential to remobilize loose sediments along shorelines and increase the turbidity of nearshore waters, thereby impacting water quality and aquatic ecosystem health. Siling Lake is one of the largest and most rapidly expanding lakes on the Tibetan Plateau. Between 2000 and 2017, this lake experienced an increase in water level of about 8 m and a doubling in water turbidity. Here, using this lake as a study site, we used a wave model and high-resolution remote sensing of turbidity (Landsat-8) to assess the potential connection between water-level rise, enhanced wind-driven sediment resuspension and water turbidity. Our analysis revealed that strong bottom shear stresses triggered by wind-generated waves over newly flooded areas were related to an increase in water turbidity. The spatial variability of Siling Lake turbidity showed a strong dependence on local wind characteristics and fetch. Two factors combined to drive the increase in turbidity: (1) high wave energy leading to high bottom shear stresses, and (2) flooding of unvegetated shallow areas. Using a new relationship between wave energy and turbidity developed here, we expect the increase in turbidity of Siling Lake to taper off in the near future due to the steep landscape surrounding the lake that will prevent further flooding. Our results imply that rising water levels along the coast are not only expected to influence terrestrial ecosystems but could also change water quality. The methodology presented herein could be applied to other shorelines affected by a rapid increase in water level. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Control of hydrologic systems for multiple uses in a closed-loop framework

The role of linear control theory as an aid to the integral control of hydrologic systems is investigated for the case of a combined lake and aquifer storage system that supplies either a deterministic or stochastic water demand. Only lumped time-invariant systems are considered but both deterministic and stochastic inflows to storage are allowed. The computational example allows for recharge of lake water into the aquifer as well as for the subsequent diversion of pumped groundwater back to the lake. Stability criteria are presented for the closed-loop features of the overall control system. Under a quadratic loss criterion, a calculus of variations problem, subject to constraints imposed by the system equations can be solved for the optimal release policy from the lake and aquifer and optimal feedback policy from aquifer to lake.     

Lateral and subsurface flows impact arctic coastal plain lake water budgets

Arctic thaw lakes are an important source of water for aquatic ecosystems, wildlife, and humans. Many recent studies have observed changes in Arctic surface waters related to climate warming and permafrost thaw; however, explaining the trends and predicting future responses to warming is difficult without a stronger fundamental understanding of Arctic lake water budgets. By measuring and simulating surface and subsurface hydrologic fluxes, this work quantified the water budgets of three lakes with varying levels of seasonal drainage, and tested the hypothesis that lateral and subsurface flows are a major component of the post‐snowmelt water budgets. A water budget focused only on post‐snowmelt surface water fluxes (stream discharge, precipitation, and evaporation) could not close the budget for two of three lakes, even when uncertainty in input parameters was rigorously considered using a Monte Carlo approach. The water budgets indicated large, positive residuals, consistent with up to 70% of mid‐summer inflows entering lakes from lateral fluxes. Lateral inflows and outflows were simulated based on three processes; supra‐permafrost subsurface inflows from basin‐edge polygonal ground, and exchange between seasonally drained lakes and their drained margins through runoff and evapotranspiration. Measurements and simulations indicate that rapid subsurface flow through highly conductive flowpaths in the polygonal ground can explain the majority of the inflow. Drained lakes were hydrologically connected to marshy areas on the lake margins, receiving water from runoff following precipitation and losing up to 38% of lake efflux to drained margin evapotranspiration. Lateral fluxes can be a major part of Arctic thaw lake water budgets and a major control on summertime lake water levels. Incorporating these dynamics into models will improve our ability to predict lake volume changes, solute fluxes, and habitat availability in the changing Arctic. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Mosaic surface storages of a small boreal catchment

Recent studies have suggested that the hydrologic connectivity of northern headwater catchments is likely controlled by antecedent moisture conditions and land cover patterns. A water storage model (EWS), based on water levels (WLs), specific yield (Sy) and surface elevation (SE) changes, was compared with a basic water budget of a small, boreal, patterned fen (13 ha) during the ice‐free period. Results showed that the EWS model reproduced well storage variations derived from the water budget. These results suggest that storage variations can be properly represented by the fluctuations of WLs when we consider the heterogeneous soil properties. However, storage deviations occurred at the daily scale and could be explained by a lack of information on water retention in unsaturated layers, canopy interceptions and preferential flows. Despite the significant impact of SE changes on the different peatland cover storage budgets (strings and lawns), using Sy mean values had a low impact on storage estimations. This can be explained by the large proportion of pools and high WLs throughout the fen. At the fen scale, high storage in the pools seemed to reduce the Sy difference between strings and lawns. The results of this study provide new insights about the complex hydrological behaviour of northern catchments and allow for conceiving new hydrological modelling perspectives. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulating the response of a closed‐basin lake to recent climate changes in tropical West Africa (Lake Bosumtwi,Ghana)

Historical changes in the level of Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana, have been simulated using a catchment‐scale hydrological model in order to assess the importance of changes in climate and land use on lake water balance on a monthly basis for the period 1939–2004. Several commonly used models for computing evaporation in data‐sparse regions are compared, including the Penman, the energy budget, and the Priestley–Taylor methods. Based on a comparison with recorded lake level variations, the model with the energy‐budget evaporation model subcomponent is most effective at reproducing observed lake level variations using regional climate records. A sensitivity analysis using this model indicates that Lake Bosumtwi is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation, cloudiness and temperature. However, the model is also sensitive to changes in runoff related to vegetation, and this factor needs to be considered in simulating lake level variations. Both interannual and longer‐term changes in lake level over the last 65 years appear to have been caused primarily by changes in precipitation, though the model also suggests that the drop in lake level over the last few decades has been moderated by changes in cloudiness and temperature over that time. Based on its effectiveness at simulating the magnitude and rate of lake level response to changing climate over the historical record, this model offers a potential future opportunity to examine the palaeoclimatic factors causing past lake level fluctuations preserved in the geological record at Lake Bosumtwi. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological and thermal regimes in a supra-glacial lake: Imja,Khumbu, Nepal Himalaya

Abstract

Supraglacial Imja Lake (lake level, 5010 m a.m.s.l.), Khumbu, Nepal Himalaya, has increased its size on the tongue of Imja Glacier since the 1950s. In order to clarify the mechanism of the lake expansion, the physical conditions, water budget and heat budget of the lake were examined by measuring water temperature, water turbidity, lake level, meteorology and water discharge. These measurements were carried out in the monsoon season of July 1997, when the glacier melt occurred in the ablation area with air temperature of more than 0°C. Density stratification in the lake is built up by an effect of water pressure on lake water, but, neglecting the effect, lake water density is defined by suspended sediment concentration rather than temperature. Glacier-melt water from the subaqueous part of the glacier terminus mixed with lake surface water of 4–8°C, and diffused the water of about 3°C into the deeper zone of the lake. This advective, thermal diffusion occurs by sediment-laden underflow and relatively clear density interflow. The sediment-laden underflow is induced by intermittent glacier-melt sediment discharge at the terminus, while the density interflow is probably produced by continuous glacier-melt water discharge. Calculation of water budget of the lake indicates that meltwater inflow at the glacier terminus and surface water outflow at the outlet determine the hydrological conditions of the lake. The net heat transfer by melting of the terminal ice and dead ice, connected to the lake expansion, was evaluated by calculating the heat budget of the lake.