考虑能量-时间分布的边坡动力可靠性分析新方法

提出一种考虑能量-时间分布的边坡动力可靠性分析方法。该方法将动态最危险滑动面及其稳定系数以时间序列加以刻画,并根据边坡动力反应的能量分布特征,提取持续时间统计窗,用于对上述时间序列的统计分析,以获取边坡动力模糊失效概率、边坡动力可靠度指标和基于保证率的边坡动力稳定系数。以澳大利亚计算机应用协会边坡稳定考核题为例,应用上述新方法考察其在芦山7.0级主震波形条件下的稳定性,研究了在不同统计窗下的边坡动力可靠性。案例分析表明： （1）新方法能够抓住影响边坡动力稳定的主要时间段,使分析结果更为凝练、可信。（2）通过引入边坡失效状态的模糊判别,使得可靠性评价中能够考虑模糊性,解决了以往常规方法区分度不够的问题。（3）基于保证率的边坡动力稳定系数具有很好的应用前景,它在内涵上体现了可靠性分析,在形式上与静力稳定系数的定义兼容,在数值上反映了边坡瞬时动力稳定系数的保守估计值,在实践上与现行规范的拟静力法具有良好的可比性,因而具有多方面的优势。（4）就本案例而言,动力条件下最危险滑动面的发育位置趋向于静力条件下的最危险滑动面,体现了依据静力和拟静力理论框架所进行的防护工程设计,在动力条件下仍然具有积极的意义。（5）新方法对定量研究现行边坡规范的抗震设计冗余提供了一条途径。提出的新方法为边坡抗震研究提供了新的思路、方法和可供参考的实例。     

A Simple Monte Carlo Method for Locating the Three-dimensional Critical Slip Surface of a Slope

Based on the assumption of the plain-strain problem, various optimization or random search methods have been developed for locating the critical slip surfaces in slope-stability analysis, but none of such methods is applicable to the 3D case. In this paper, a simple Monte Carlo random simulation method is proposed to identify the 3D critical slip surface. Assuming the initial slip to be the lower part of a slip ellipsoid, the 3D critical slip surface is located by means of a minimized 3D safety factor. A column-based 3D slope stability analysis model is used to calculate this factor. In this study, some practical cases of known minimum safety factors and critical slip surfaces in 2D analysis are extended to 3D slope problems to locate the critical slip surfaces. Compared with the 2D result, the resulting 3D critical slip surface has no apparent difference in terms of only cross section, but the associated 3D safety factor is definitely higher.     

土质斜坡存在唯一最小安全系数的数据作图论证及原因分析

本文通过数据作图法揭示了土体黏聚力和内摩擦角对斜坡安全系数作用的不同规律,并论证了一般土质斜坡存在唯一最小安全系数及其原因。本文在土质斜坡中划分了大量的潜在滑移面,并定义了每一个潜在滑移面所拥有的4类安全系数FOSc×φ、FOSc、FOSφ和FOSc+φ。基于极限平衡的条分法计算了滑移面的4类安全系数,并使用数据作图法揭示和确定了这4类安全系数值随潜在滑移面深度d变化的4条特征和规律。由土体黏聚力和内摩擦角共同作用的安全系数FOSc×φ包络线随d的增加先单调下降,到达一段最小值区间后,再单调上升。因此,它必然存在一个总体最小值。仅由土体黏聚力贡献的FOSc包络线随d的增加先快速、再缓慢单调下降。仅由土体内摩擦角贡献的安全系数FOSφ包络线随d的增加线性上升。FOSc与FOSφ之和FOSc+φ数值几乎等同于FOSc×φ数值。这4条规律揭示了土体黏聚力和内摩擦角对斜坡安全系数作用的不同规律,并论证了一般斜坡存在最小安全系数及其原因。本文进一步论证和揭示了这4条特征和规律适用于5种经典有限条分法的计算结果,适用于考虑地下孔隙水压强作用的计算结果,和考虑斜坡土体分层不均质影响的计算结果。特别地,地下孔隙水会加深拥有最小安全系数的潜在滑移面深度。土体黏聚力对斜坡安全系数贡献随潜在滑移面深度增大而减小,土体内摩擦角对斜坡安全系数贡献随潜在滑移面深度增大而增大。这两种强度随深度的相反贡献规律导致了一般土质斜坡存在唯一最小安全系数。     

Hazard analysis of seismic submarine slope instability

To assess the risk associated with a submarine landslide, one must estimate the probability of slope failure and its consequences. This paper proposes a procedure to estimate the probability of earthquake-induced submarine slope failure (hazard) based on probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, ground response analyses and advanced laboratory tests. The outcomes from these analyses are treated in a probabilistic framework, with analytical simulations using mathematical techniques such as the first-order reliability method, Monte Carlo simulation and Bayesian updating. Fragility curves of slope failure during the earthquake (co-seismic) and after the earthquake (post-seismic) were developed in this study, and were shown to provide a clear and well-organized procedure to estimate the annual failure probability of a submarine slope under earthquake loading.     

Vertical acceleration effect on landsides triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake,China

The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake with Ms8.0 triggered extensive throwing-pattern landslides in the area within or near the seismic faults. The resultant landslides from this earthquake brought to the fore the effect of vertical earthquake acceleration on landslide occurrence. The pseudostatic analysis and the dynamic response on landslide stability due to the Wenchuan earthquake are studied with the Chengxi (West Town) catastrophic landslide used as a case study. The results show that the epicenter distance is an important factor which affects the vertical acceleration and thus the stability of landslide. Also, the vertical acceleration was found to have a significant impact on the FOS of landslide if the earthquake magnitude is quite large. Within the seismic fault, the amplitude effect of vertical acceleration is very dominant with the FOS of landslide, for vertical acceleration ranging from positive to negative, having a variation of 25 %. The variation of FOS of landslide for vertical acceleration ranging from positive to negative are 15 and 5 % for landslides near seismic fault and outside seismic fault, respectively. For landslide with a slope angle <45°, the FOS of landslide with both horizontal and vertical accelerations is significantly greater than the one without vertical acceleration. Further, the results computed from both the pseudostatic method and dynamic analysis reveal that the FOS during the earthquake varied significantly whether vertical acceleration is considered or not. The results from this study explain why lots of throwing-pattern catastrophic landslides occurred within 10 km of the seismic fault in the Wenchuan earthquake.     

四川梓潼金龙村边坡地震稳定性分析

金龙村边坡位于四川省梓潼县境内,汶川县东,距离汶川地震中心约150 km。通过现场调查,分析了地形、地貌条件和地震等因素对该边坡稳定性的影响。发现滑动面位于土层与基岩的接触面,采用极限平衡法和数值分析法对边坡的稳定性进行了计算,2种计算得到的稳定性结果较为接近。采用动力时程分析法计算得到了边坡位移与加速度变化的关系。     

基于随机响应面法的边坡系统可靠度分析

提出了一套基于随机响应面法的边坡系统可靠度分析方法。该方法首先从大量潜在滑动面中筛选出代表性滑动面。针对每条代表性滑动面,采用Hermite多项式展开建立其安全系数与土体参数间的非线性显式函数关系（即随机响应面）。然后,采用直接蒙特卡洛模拟计算边坡系统失效概率。在蒙特卡罗模拟中,采用所有代表性滑动面的随机响应面计算每一组样本所对应的边坡最小安全系数。最后,以两个典型多层边坡系统可靠度问题为例验证了该方法的有效性。结果表明：文中提出的边坡系统可靠度分析方法能够有效地识别边坡代表性滑动面,具有较高的计算精度和效率,并且确定代表性滑动面时无需计算滑动面间的相关系数。同时该方法可以有效地计算低失效概率水平的边坡系统可靠度,为含相关非正态参数的边坡系统可靠度问题提供了一条有效的分析途径。此外,多层边坡可能同时存在多条潜在滑动面,基于单一滑动面（如临界确定性滑动面）或者部分代表性滑动面进行边坡系统可靠度分析均会低估边坡失效概率。     

空间三维滑坡敏感性分区工具及其应用

对于滑坡敏感性分区目前有三种方法:定性法、统计法和基于岩土定量模型的确定性方法。定性法基于对滑坡敏感性或灾害评估的人为判断;统计法用一个来源于结合了权重因子的预测函数或指标;而确定性法,或者说是物理定量模型法以质量、能量和动量守恒定律为基础。二维确定性模型广泛用于土木工程设计,而无限边坡模型(一维)也用于滑坡灾害分区的确定性模型。文中提出了一个新的基于GIS(地理信息系统)的滑坡敏感性分区系统,这个系统可用于从复杂地形中确认可能的危险三维(3-D)滑坡体。所有与滑坡相关的空间数据(矢量或栅格数据)都被集成到这个系统中。通过把研究区域划分为边坡单元并假定初始滑动面是椭球的下半部分,并使用Monte Carlo随机搜索法,三维滑坡稳定性分析中的三维最危险滑面是三维安全系数最小的地方。使用近似方法假定有效凝聚力、有效摩擦角和三维安全系数服从正态分布,可以计算出滑坡失稳概率。3DSlopeGIS是一个计算机程序,它内嵌了GIS Developer kit(ArcObjects of ESRI)来实现GIS空间分析功能和有效的数据管理。应用此工具可以解决所有的三维边坡空间数据解问题。通过使用空间分析、数据管理和GIS的可视化功能来处理复杂的边坡数据,三维边坡稳定性问题很容易用一个友好的可视化图形界面来解决。将3DSlopeGIS系统应用到3个滑坡敏感性分区的实例中:第一个是一个城市规划项目,第二个是预测以往滑坡灾害对临近区域可能的影响,第三个则是沿着国家主干道的滑坡分区。基于足够次数的Monte Carlo模拟法,可以确认可能的最危险滑坡体。这在以往的传统边坡稳定性分析中是不可能的。     

公路沿线花岗岩风化区滑坡危险度评价--以日本49号国道合户地区为例

对公路沿线边坡进行稳定性评价及滑坡灾害分析，对于由滑坡、泥石流等引起的公路灾害的防治具有重要指导意义。为了评价处于花岗岩风化区的日本福岛县合户地区49号国道沿线边坡的滑坡危险程度，在调查和分析了该地区的表层破坏模式、并通过简易探测方法摸清了风化土层的厚度分布后，将研究区域划分为边坡单元(Slopeunit)，使用椭球体下半部模拟滑动面的形状，通过随机试算法确定各边坡单元危险滑动面的位置及空间形状；采用一种基于GIS的边坡稳定性三维分析模型计算各边坡单元最小安全系数以及滑坡发生概率，定量评价滑坡灾害危险程度。所有的计算过程及结果显示均在一个基于GIS平台的系统中完成，为如何利用GIS技术更好地为滑坡灾害防治工作服务拓宽了思路。     

The large-scale landslide on the flank of caldera in South Sulawesi, Indonesia

An extraordinarily large-scale landslide with a volume of about 200 million m³, a width of about 1,600 m, and a height of about 750 m occurred on 2004 March 26, 13:45 local time, on a steep caldera wall on the northwest flank of Mt. Bawakaraeng (2,830 m) at the headwater of the Jeneberang River in South Sulawesi, Indonesia. The debris avalanche extended about 7 km from the headwater and buried the river valley, causing devastating damage. There are a great many calderas in the world, notably Japan. If a large-scale sector collapse were to occur in a heavily populated area, it would be a devastating disaster for the people living in the area. The aim of this paper is to outline such a landslide and explain its mechanism of occurrence. We evaluated the stability of the original slope before the landslide using the limit equilibrium method and the finite-element-based shear strength reduction method (SSRFEM) with the strength reduction factor. The limit equilibrium method showed that a rise in the groundwater level caused the landslide. Although the critical slip surface predicted by the SSRFEM was shallower than that of the actual slip surface, the end positions of the actual and predicted slip surfaces were almost the same. Moreover, the end position of the critical slip surface before the landslide—the headwater of the Jeneberang River—was a knick point at which the slope inclination became steeper. SSRFEM analysis may be useful for evaluating the slope stability of large-scale landslides, because the critical slip surface predicted by it was close to the actual surface, even though we assumed homogenous conditions without information on the degree of weathering or ground properties. As the knick point formed at the end of the critical slip surface and is equivalent to the end of the actual slip surface, we assume such topographic features to be a primary geomorphologic cause of the landslide.     

Asperity distribution of the 1964 Great Alaska earthquake and its relation to subsequent seismicity in the region

The 1964 Alaska earthquake was the second largest seismic events in the 20th century. The aim of this work is the use of surface deformation data to determine asperity and slip distributions on the fault plane of the Alaska earthquake: these distributions are calculated by a Monte Carlo method. To this aim, we decompose the fault plane in a large number of small square asperity units with a side of 25 km; this allows us to obtain plane surfaces with an irregular shape. In the first stage, each asperity unit is allowed to slip a constant amount or not to slip at all, providing the geometry of the dislocation surface that best reproduces the observed displacements. To this purpose, a large number of slip distributions have been tried by the use of the Monte Carlo method. The slip amplitude is the same for all the asperities and is equal to the average fault slip inferred from the seismic moment. In the second stage, we evaluate the slip distribution in the dislocation area determined by the Monte Carlo inversion: in this case, we allow unit cells to undergo different values of slip in order to refine the initial dislocation model. The results confirm the previous finding that the slip distribution of the great Alaska earthquake was essentially made of two dislocation areas with a higher slip, the Prince William Sound and the Kodiak asperities. Analysis of the post-1964 seismicity in the rupture region shows a strong correlation between the larger earthquakes (M_w≥6) and the distribution of locked asperities following the 1964 event, which can be considered as an independent test of the validity of the model. We do not find slip values higher than 25 m for any of the patches, and we determine two separate high-slip zones: one correspondent to the Prince William Sound asperity, and one (18 m slip) to the Kodiak asperity. The slip distribution connected with the 1964 shock appears to be consistent with the following seismicity in the region.     

随机地震作用下滑坡稳定性可靠度分析

应用边坡可靠性分析中常用的蒙特卡罗法,并结合稳定性计算的剩余推力法和Sarma法,研究随机地震作用下边坡的可靠性。以三峡库区黄土坡滑坡为例,分析了地震效应对边坡稳定性的影响。计算结果表明:地震加速度对滑坡稳定性影响显著;竖向地震加速度小于水平地震加速度2/3时,对滑坡稳定性影响较小,大于水平加速度时,对滑坡稳定性影响明显。因此在一般工程设计中,可以只考虑水平向的地震作用,而对于设计烈度较大的大型工程,则应同时考虑水平向和垂直向的地震作用。      

Stochastic seismic slope stability assessment using polynomial chaos expansions combined with relevance vector machine

This paper presents probabilistic assessment of seismically-induced slope displacements considering uncertainties of seismic ground motions and soil properties.A stochastic ground motion model representing both the temporal and spectral non-stationarity of earthquake shakings and a three-dimensional rotational failure mechanism are integrated to assess Newmark-type slope displacements.A new probabilistic approach that incorporates machine learning in metamodeling technique is proposed,by combining relevance vector machine with polynomial chaos expansions(RVM-PCE).Compared with other PCE methods,the proposed RVM-PCE is shown to be more effective in estimating failure probabilities.The sensitivity and relative influence of each random input parameter to the slope displacements are discussed.Finally,the fragility curves for slope displacements are established for sitespecific soil conditions and earthquake hazard levels.The results indicate that the slope displacement is more sensitive to the intensities and strong shaking durations of seismic ground motions than the frequency contents,and a critical Arias intensity that leads to the maximum annual failure probabilities can be identified by the proposed approach.     

多点、多向地震作用下非圆弧滑面边坡稳定分析通用条分法

在地震边坡稳定性分析当中,往往采用单点地震动输入,但实际地震动是随着时间和空间变化的。为了研究边坡在多点、多向地震作用下的稳定性,地震动输入采用考虑地震动的空间时间变化特性的人工合成多点、多向地震动,并将之转化为作用于边坡上的多点、多向地震荷载,在陈祖煜院士所提出的通用条分法的基础之上,推导了适用于任意形状滑面、即满足力的平衡又满足力矩平衡的多点、多向地震作用下边坡稳定通用条分法的极限平衡微分方程,并给出了求解动力安全系数的方法,通过两个算例验证了方法的可行性。     

求解边坡矢量和安全系数的条分法

矢量和安全系数物理、力学意义明确,通常采用有限元计算得到的应力场来求解。提出一种简便的求解方法,在通用条分法（GLE）的基础上,满足力和力矩平衡的严格条件,推导了基于条分法的矢量和安全系数。采用广义简约梯度法（GRG）搜索临界滑面,在极限抗滑合力矢方向上求解矢量和安全系数。整个计算过程都在电子表格软件Excel内实现,易于在工程实践中推广。对于圆弧滑面边坡,其计算结果表明：①矢量和安全系数与代数和安全系数非常接近,对应的滑面位置也相近。②不同的条间力函数假设（常数和半正弦函数）对边坡的矢量和安全系数影响很小。③极限抗滑合力矢方向? 小于边坡坡角,其值与假定条间力平行时的条间力方向非常一致。在极限平衡分析框架内,计算方法可进一步简化为：假设条间力平行,将条间力方向作为矢量和安全系数的计算方向。对于非圆弧滑面边坡,其计算结果表明：①均质边坡的矢量和安全系数与代数和安全系数相对误差小于3 %,滑面位置接近,而软弱层边坡两种方法的计算结果有一定差别。②不同的条间力函数假设对边坡的矢量和安全系数影响很小。     

GIS-Based Probabilistic Mapping of Landslide Hazard Using a Three-Dimensional Deterministic Model

Based on a new Geographic Information Systems (GIS) grid-basedthree-dimensional (3-D) deterministic model and taking the slopeunit as the mapping unit, this study maps landslide hazard usingthe 3-D safety factor index and failure probability. Assuming theinitial slip to be the lower part of an ellipsoid, the 3-D critical slipsurface in the 3-D slope stability analysis is located by minimizingthe 3-D safety factor using the Monte Carlo random simulation.The failure probability of the landslide is calculated using anapproximate method in which the distributions of c, andthe 3-D safety factor are assumed to be in normal distribution.The method has been applied to a case study on three-dimensionallyand probabilistically mapping landslide hazard.     

天水市麦积区税湾地震黄土滑坡特征及其形成机制

以天水市税湾地震黄土滑坡为例, 依据野外调查和室内测试结果, 总结天水地区历史地震黄土滑坡特点, 剖析地震黄土滑坡发生的力学机制, 初步提出历史地震黄土滑坡的识别标志。税湾滑坡及柳沟右岸滑坡群属典型的地震黄土滑坡, 具有规模大、滑动面切割深、滑坡坡度小、成群成带分布和高位下滑等特点, 可作为识别历史地震黄土滑坡的重要标志。税湾滑坡及柳沟右岸滑坡群坡体具有明显的黄土/泥岩二元斜坡结构, 极易沿黄土/泥岩接触面滑动。当坡体受到地震力作用时, 地震产生的循环动荷载一方面降低滑坡岩土体的抗剪强度, 另一方面改变滑坡体的力学状态, 坡体应力平衡遭到破坏, 地震力增加坡体下滑力、减小坡体抗滑力, 导致坡体失稳发生滑坡。目前, 税湾滑坡处于欠稳定状态, 遇地震或强降雨有可能再次失稳下滑, 因而有必要进一步开展地震黄土滑坡的成灾模式研究, 为潜在强震区防灾减灾提供科学依据。      

基于简化 Newmark位移模型的区域地震滑坡危险性快速评估以汶川MS 8.0级地震为例

以汶川MS8.0级地震重灾区的11县市为例,初步提出了基于简化Newmark位移模型的地震滑坡危险性应急快速评估方法。利用汶川地震即时地震动参数、工程地质岩性经验分组及地形坡度数据,借助ArcGIS空间数据建模工具编制了地震滑坡危险性快速评估流程模块。计算了区域浅表层饱和岩土体斜坡的静态安全系数Fs、临界加速度ac,并借此分析了地震滑坡易发性。利用经验式获得了汶川地震Arias强度和区域滑坡位移DN分布,实现了汶川地震重灾区地震滑坡危险性的快速评估,为应急救灾决策提供了参考。通过对比评估结果和震后滑坡调查成果,可知数十处灾难性滑坡绝大部分位于-高危险区的龙门山主中央断裂带两侧约20km地带中,显示了评估方法的可靠性; 同时,分析指出了空间数据精度及更新不足导致局部评估结果欠佳的局限性,并提出了改进建议。     

Stability assessment of Jinlong village landslide,Sichuan

The Jinlong village landslide is located in Zitong County, Sichuan and approximately 150 km east of Wenchuan. The landslide has exhibited creep deformation for nearly 30 years. Field investigations indicated that the slope deformation was caused by the combined effects of unfavorable topographic and geological conditions and earthquakes. The sliding surface is along a contact between silty clay and mudstone. The Wenchuan earthquake accelerated the creep, causing bulging of the ground surface. Shear test results of the silty clay near the sliding surface indicated that the residual strength is consistent with the stability state of the landslide. The factors of safety were calculated using the limit equilibrium method (LEM) and the method of fast Lagrangian analysis of continua in two dimensions. The results using the LEM indicate that the stability is clearly affected by seismic shaking, and when the peak ground acceleration is 0.08g, the slope reaches the limit state. The shear failure surface given by numerical simulation develops on the contact between the clay and silty mudstone, which confirmed the assumed sliding surfaces’ location using the LEM.     

蒙特卡洛法与有限元结合搜索边坡临界滑动面

把蒙特卡洛随机搜索法与有限元法相结合,搜索边坡的临界滑动面及其对应的最小安全系数.通过随机跳跃法生成一定数量的初始试算滑动面,根据有限元分析的应力和孔隙水压力结果计算给定滑动面的安全系数,利用随机走步法不断更新试算滑动面,使试算滑动面安全系数不断减小,最终确定边坡临界滑动面及其对应的最小安全系数.本方法通过随机搜索,克服了大多数常规优化方法易陷入安全系数局部极小的问题.数值算例分析说明了本文提出的确定边坡临界滑动面的方法的有效性和优越性.