Decadal Prediction Skill of the Global Sea Surface Temperature in the BCC_CSM1.1 Climate Model

This study assesses retrospective decadal prediction skill of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variability in initialized climate prediction experiments (INT) with the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM1.1). Ensemble forecasts were evaluated using observations, and compared to an ensemble of uninitialized simulations (NoINT). The results show as follows: ①The warming trend of global mean SST simulated by the INT runs is closer to the observation than that in the NoINT runs.②The INT runs show high SST prediction skills over broad regions of tropical Atlantic, western tropical Pacific and tropical Indian Oceans. ③ In the North Pacific and the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean, the prediction skills are very weak, and there are few improvements coming from the initialization in the INT runs. ④ In the southern Indian Ocean, the prediction skills of the INT runs are significantly larger than that of the NoINT runs, with the maximum skill at the 3~6 and 4~7 years lead time. The above-mentioned conclusions are similar to the results of other climate models. However, the prediction skill in the North Atlantic Ocean is much lower than that of other models, especially in the subpolar region. The low skills in the Atlantic Ocean may be attributed to the misrepresentation of the lead-lag relationship between the Atlantic meridional heat transport and the SST in the BCC_CSM1.1.     

Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclogenesis over the North Indian Ocean

Over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and particularly over the Bay of Bengal (BoB), the post-monsoon season from October to December (OND) are known to produce tropical cyclones, which cause damage to life and property over India and many neighbouring countries. The variability of frequency of cyclonic disturbances (CDs) during OND season is found to be associated with variability of previous large-scale features during monsoon season from June to September, which is used to develop seasonal forecast model of CDs frequency over the BoB and NIO based on principal component regression (PCR). Six dynamical/thermodynamical parameters during previous June–August, viz., (i) sea surface temperature (SST) over the equatorial central Pacific, (ii) sea level pressure (SLP) over the southeastern equatorial Indian Ocean, (iii) meridional wind over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean at 850 hPa, (iv) strength of upper level easterly, (v) strength of monsoon westerly over North Indian Ocean at 850 hPa, and (vi) SST over the northwest Pacific having significant and stable relationship with CDs over BoB in subsequent OND season are used in PCR model for a training period of 40 years (1971–2010) and the latest four years (2011–2014) are used for validation. The PCR model indicates highly significant correlation coefficient of 0.77 (0.76) between forecast and observed frequency of CD over the BoB (NIO) for the whole period of 44 years and is associated with the root mean square error and mean absolute error ≤ 1 CD. With respect to the category forecast of CD frequency over BoB and NIO, the Hit score is found to be about 63% and the Relative Operating Curves (ROC) for above and below normal forecast is found to be having much better forecast skill than the climatology. The PCR model performs very well, particularly for the above and below normal CD year over the BoB and the NIO, during the test period from 2011 to 2014.     

北美洲降水中稳定同位素的时空分布以及与ENSO的关系

分析了北美洲降水中δ¹⁸O的时空分布特征以及与温度、降水量、ENSO的关系.结果表明:无论是在陆地还是在海洋,北美降水中平均δ¹⁸O的纬向分布是非常显著的.随着纬度的升高,降水中δ¹⁸O迅速减小.整个北美大陆均存在温度效应,并随纬度的增加而加强.不同季节温度效应分布的差异仅表现在其范围和强度的变化上.降水量效应主要出现在低纬度海洋、中低纬度太平洋的东海岸和湾流的西北海岸.在内陆区,降水量效应不存在.不同季节降水量效应分布的差异也仅表现在其范围和强度的变化上.在大陆内部和高纬度地区,对应显著的温度效应,δ¹⁸O的季节差异Δδ¹⁸O具有较大的正值;在低纬度海洋,对应显著的降水量效应,Δδ¹⁸O较小或为负值;在相同的纬度,陆地上的Δδ¹⁸O明显大于海洋.代表大陆性特征的渥太华站和代表海洋性特征的中途岛站降水中δ¹⁸O与Ni o-4的SST具有显著的正相关关系,其中,尤以5月的δ¹⁸O与Ni o-4的SST的连续相关关系最显著,表明ENSO事件的强信号对该时期陆地和海洋降水中稳定同位素的变化具有重要影响.     

青藏高原初春积雪的多尺度变化与北大西洋海温的关系

青藏高原冬、春季积雪变化影响东亚甚至全球春、夏季的环流及气候异常。利用中国西部环境与生态科学数据中心提供的中国雪深长时间序列数据集,美国大气海洋局提供的全球逐月扩展重建海表温度,以及欧洲中期天气预报中心提供的逐月再分析数据,对青藏高原初春（3、4月）积雪的多尺度变化与北大西洋海表温度的关系进行了研究。结果表明,初春青藏高原雪深异常与初春北大西洋关键区海温异常有显著的负相关关系。当初春关键区海温正（负）异常时,初春高原中部偏北腹地地区、东南部地区积雪深度减少（增加）;初春北大西洋关键区海温异常通过激发下游青藏高原上空大气波列以及波作用通量异常来影响高原局地区域的温度和垂直运动,从而影响降雪的产生和积雪的累积。该结果为青藏高原初春积雪的多尺度变化及其影响提供了依据。     

全球海平面变化研究新进展

综述了近10年来海平面变化研究的主要成果,分析了影响海平面变化的主要因素,探讨了海平面变化研究中存在的一些问题。结果表明：①近10年全球平均海平面上升幅度大约为2.5~3.84 mm/a,热膨胀是引起海平面上升的主因;②海平面变化具有时空分布差异——西太平洋和东印度洋地区上升最快,其值高出全球平均值的10倍以上;大西洋与太平洋30~40°N地区季节变化最明显;③将海平面季节高值时段与北半球热带气旋出现时间进行对比,发现每年8~10月份,在20~50°N的西北太平洋与北大西洋沿岸地区出现海平面最高值与热带气旋相叠加的全球危险海岸带,该地带包括中国大陆东部、日本沿海地区、美国东部海岸带、墨西哥湾地区和加勒比海地区。     

珠江流域降水干湿时空特征及气候因子影响研究

利用模糊C-均值聚类算法、皮尔逊相关和滑动相关分析等方法,对珠江流域做了气候一致性分析,在此基础上,研究了珠江流域不同分区年降水和干湿季降水变化的时空特征,分析了区域干湿变化与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)、北大西洋涛动(NAO)、印度洋偶极子(IOD)和太平洋10年涛动(PDO)等主要气候因子的遥相关关系,探讨了珠江流域干湿变化的气候成因。在此基础上,进一步研究上述气候指标对不同时间尺度干湿变化影响的平稳性与差异性。除此之外,还研究了气候指标的冷暖期对基于6个月SPI值的珠江流域干湿状态的影响。研究表明:(1)IOD、NAO和ENSO分别是导致珠江流域年降水、湿季降水和干季降水发生变化的主要影响因素,且对当年及下一年降水的影响是相反的。(2)珠江流域不同时间尺度的降水与对其有显著影响的气候指标(年降水与IOD,湿季降水与NAO,干季降水与ENSO),两者之间不同时期的滑动相关往往具有较强的相关性和前后相关一致性。(3)各气候指标对珠江流域不同时间尺度降水的影响在空间分布上不太均匀。(4)不同位相下气候指标对珠江流域干湿状态的影响存在较大差异。总体而言,当处于各气候指标暖期时珠江流域出现湿润期的概率较冷期时更大且在空间分布上更均匀。     

Indium and yttrium in North Atlantic and Mediterranean waters: comparison to the Pacific data

Vertical profiles of dissolved indium and yttrium were determined in the eastern North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea to compare with those of the North Pacific reported earlier. The Y concentrations in the surface waters are 120 pmol/kg in the North Atlantic and 205 pmol/kg in the Mediterranean Sea, which are significantly higher than 80 pmol/kg in the North Pacific. The difference may be attributable to the different strength of input of Y to the oceans from fluvial and aeolian sources. In contrast, the deep water concentration of Y increases in the order of North Atlantic < Mediterranean < North Pacific. This trend is similar to that of dissolved Si, suggesting that Y is involved in the biogeochemical regeneration cycle. The vertical profiles of In are far more complex than Y. The In profile shows a systematic increase from 0.6 pmol/kg at the surface to 1.7 pmol/kg at 2100 m in the North Atlantic, whereas it is almost featureless at a mean concentration of 3.8 ± 0.6 pmol/kg in the Mediterranean Sea. The North Atlantic and Mediterranean In concentrations are considerably higher than those observed in the North Pacific (∼0.1 pmol/kg), and such a large interoceanic variation has been reported before only for Al and Ga. Like Al, the deep water In concentration that decreases in the order of Mediterranean > North > North Pacific exhibits an inverse trend of Y and nutrients. Indium is highly particle-reactive (47% association in the Mediterranean Sea), and must have a short mean oceanic residence time. However, the featureless dissolved In profile in the Mediterranean Sea is clearly different from the profiles of dissolved Al, showing increase with depth Hydes et al 1988, Measures and Edmond 1988, suggesting that significant fractionation of the two elements is taking place in the ocean.The interoceanic variations of dissolved In and Al may be ascribed to the different intensities of external input of which aeolian has been considered to be major rather than fluvial. However, the difference of In and Al concentrations in the deep waters of the above oceanic basins are significantly greater than those of other refractory elements, such as Ce, Ti, Hf, and Zr, whose major sources to the ocean are also considered to be aeolian. Furthermore, the In/Al ratios in seawater are about two orders of magnitude greater than the average crustal ratio. Thus, some additional sources, though not yet certain, may be required to explain the high concentrations of In in the Atlantic and the Mediterranean deep waters.     

利用树轮密度重建新疆北部5-8月温度变化

利用新疆北部5个采样点的树轮密度年表主序列和新疆北部33个气象站观测气温平均值进行相关分析,结果显示其与新疆北部5-8月平均温度存在很强一致相关性,相关系数为0.667（p<0.001, n=49）。温度重建方程能够解释校准期（1960-2008年）内44.5%的温度变化方差。空间相关分析揭示该温度重建序列能够表征新疆北部过去353 a （1656-2008年）5-8月温度总体变化特征。重建序列揭示新疆北部5-8月平均温度大致经历了6个偏暖阶段,即1656-1664年、1667-1692年、1711-1734年、1804-1832年、1855-1956年、2000-2008年,中间为偏冷阶段,这些阶段中间多个小幅度变化。温度重建结果发现新疆北部温度变化与太阳活动、火山喷发有着紧密联系。温度重建序列与全球海温场的相关分析显示当西风带海区及热带大西洋地区的海温偏高时,研究区气温偏高。与海温、火山喷发和云量变化的相关分析都指示在西风环流的作用下,上述因子对于该地区温度变化有着重要影响。该温度重建序列在低频变化上与北半球气温具有显著正相关,说明中亚地区温度变化与北半球整体温度变化具有较好的一致性。     

Tree‐ring‐based annual precipitation reconstruction for the Hexi Corridor,NW China: consequences for climate history on and beyond the mid‐latitude Asian continent

An annual (July to June) precipitation reconstruction for the period AD 1760–2010 was developed from a Picea crassifolia regional tree‐ring chronology from two sites in the northern mountainous region of the Hexi Corridor, NW China. This reconstruction explains 52.1% of the actual precipitation variance during the period 1951 to 2010. Spatial correlations with gridded land‐surface data reveal that our reconstruction contains a strong regional precipitation signal for the Hexi Corridor and for the southern margin of the Badain Jaran Desert. Significant spectral peaks were identified at 31.9, 11.1, 8.0, 7.0, 3.2, 2.6 and 2.2 years. A large‐scale comparison indicates that our reconstruction is more consistent with climate records of a Westerly‐dominated Central Asia, and that the Westerlies have a greater impact on the precipitation in this region than the Asian summer monsoon. Our reconstructed precipitation series is significantly correlated with sea‐surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic Ocean (positive), the tropical Indian Ocean (positive), the western tropical Pacific Ocean (positive), and the western North Pacific Ocean (negative). The spatial correlation patterns between our precipitation reconstruction and SSTs of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans suggest a connection between regional precipitation variations and the high‐mid‐latitude northern atmospheric circulations (Westerlies and Asian summer monsoon).     

大洋热盐环流研究的一个焦点：北太平洋是否有深水形成

现代大洋热盐环流的特点之一是北大西洋有深水形成而北太平洋没有，这种不对称性对周边气候产生了重要影响。尽管理论上认为大洋热盐环流可能存在对应不同气候的多平衡态，但北太平洋是否曾有过深水形成已成为目前学术争论的一个热点。简要介绍了最新的热盐环流研究成果，重点分析现代北太平洋无深水形成的原因，其中亚洲季风的水汽输送和低蒸发是两个重要的影响因子。     

基于SPEI指数的兰州干旱特征与气候指数的关系

基于1961~2012年逐日气象及同期4个气候因子资料系列,采用标准化降水蒸散发指数(SPEI)定量描述兰州地区干旱状况,利用M-K检验分析了该地干旱变化趋势,采用皮尔逊相关系数法以及交叉小波变换法研究了SPEI与北大西洋涛动(NAO)、北极振荡(AO)、太平洋十年涛动(PDO)以及厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)四个气候因子之间的关系。研究结果表明:干旱指数SPEI在月、春、夏、秋及年尺度上均呈显著下降趋势、冬季增长趋势不显著,未来兰州春、夏和秋季缺水有加重趋势,冬季有变湿润倾向;SPEI与PDO、ENSO在秋季呈显著负相关;ENSO主要影响干旱短周期的年际变化;干旱与PDO和AO呈滞后的负相关关系,两指数主要影响较长周期干旱的年际和年代际变化。     

Interdecadal Change of Relation between East Asian Summer Monsoon and ENSO in Previous Winter in An Ocean Assimilation System Based on FGOALS-s2

Ocean Assimilation System (OAS) is an important component for decadal prediction experiment, providing initial conditions. Evaluating the atmosphere response in OAS can provide reference for analyzing results from decadal prediction. We analyzed the interdecadal change in relation between the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the previous winter based on an OAS on the coupled climate model FGOALS-s2. It shows that two factors impact the performance: ① interdecadal change of Ssea Surface Temperature (SST) pattern in the summer Indo-Pacific Basin related with ENSO in previous winter and ② bias in model response of the western North Pacific anticyclone to tropical SST anomalies. The anticyclone shows steady relation with the warm eastern Indian Ocean. When ENSO’s impact on the summer Indian Ocean is strengthened around the end of 1970s, the OAS can reproduce the strengthened EASM-ENSO relation. However, the trend of intensified EASM-ENSO relation in the OAS is still significant after the mid-1990s due to the stronger link between the anticyclone and the northeastern Indian Ocean, differing with the observation which shows a weakened effect of the Indian Ocean on the anticyclone. In addition, the bias in response to the SST anomalies in the central Pacific also partly contributes to the failure in reproducing the weakening EASM-ENSO relation after the mid-1990s. It implies that prediction skill of interdecadal ENSO impact on the tropical Indo-Pacific SST and response bias of model to SST anomalies may to some extent limit the capability to predict the interdecadal change in the EASM-ENSO relation.     

北极海冰与全球气候变化

最近有关北极海冰在全球气候系统中作用的研究发现，北冰洋边缘海域大洋深水的形成与海冰发育有关，海冰冻融过程对盐度层结具有重要影响，海冰变化可引起盐度突变层的灾变和热盐环流的突然停止，热盐环流的变化与北大西洋海冰１０年际变化相联系，北大西洋气候的不稳定性与热盐环流变化密切相关。北极海冰－海洋－大气间耦合作用，使北极海冰构成了北大西洋和全球气候反馈循环中的重要环节。     

柴北缘超高压变质带变质泥质岩碎屑锆石年代学研究及其地质意义

柴北缘超高压变质带作为中国西部深俯冲的一个研究热点,对其变质泥质岩的碎屑锆石年龄研究对了解此区内深俯冲大陆的前寒武纪演化历史,及与华北克拉通及华南克拉通的亲缘性讨论具有重要意义。本文选取柴北缘超高压变质带中绿梁山和都兰的变质泥质岩,筛选锆石利用LA-ICP-MS进行定年并讨论其地质意义。实验结果表明碎屑锆石年龄分为三个组别集中,分别是1100Ma、1000~800Ma和800~500Ma,并分别代表了古老的结晶基底、与Rodinia超大陆相关的碰撞和裂解事件以及古祁连洋的演化。板块亲缘性分析表明柴达木-祁连地区可能与扬子克拉通西缘具有亲缘性,可能作为扬子克拉通西缘的延伸而与扬子克拉通相连。通过结合碎屑锆石数据及板块亲缘性分析并对比现今西太平洋边缘的演化模式,本文提出了一个在早古生代北祁连为主动大陆边缘,柴北缘为被动大陆边缘;在祁连地体北侧的古祁连洋闭合后柴北缘转变为主动大陆边缘的构造演化模式。     

Climate and solar signals in property damage losses from hurricanes affecting the United States

The authors show that historical property damage losses from US hurricanes contain climate signals. The methodology is based on a statistical model that combines a specification for the number of loss events with a specification for the amount of loss per event. Separate models are developed for annual and extreme losses. A Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure is used to generate posterior samples from the models. Results indicate the chance of at least one loss event increases when the springtime north–south surface pressure gradient over the North Atlantic is weaker than normal, the Atlantic ocean is warmer than normal, El Ni?o is absent, and sunspots are few. However, given at least one loss event, the magnitude of the loss per annum is related only to ocean temperature. The 50-year return level for a loss event is largest under a scenario featuring a warm Atlantic Ocean, a weak North Atlantic surface pressure gradient, El Ni?o, and few sunspots. The work provides a framework for anticipating hurricane losses on seasonal and multi-year time scales.     

Across the pond: container shipping on the North Atlantic in the era of globalisation

This paper describes the development of containerisation in one of the most important theatres of maritime trade, the North Atlantic. As the original hearth of containerisation, it has been an area of experimentation and evolution for a technology that has burst around the world. Although over the last decade the Atlantic has been superceded by the Pacific Ocean as the major market focus for containers, it still is an important market arena. The emergence of global shipping networks is tending to favour the Atlantic once again. The paper provides an analysis of these recent developments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The changing ecology of temperate coastal waters during a warming trend

In the temperate North Atlantic Ocean the ecological changes in coastal waters associated with a warming period in the 1930s were compared with the past couple of decades when the North Atlantic Oscillation was also positive. Long-term monitoring data sets from Rhode Island and nearby coastal waters were used to identify trends in the recent warming period. During both events winter water temperatures warmed above a mean value of 2.9°C from 1°C to 3°C. There was no apparent trend in the annual salinity cycle correlated with the increased temperature. During both periods boreal species declined, southern species increased, and widespread declines in eelgrass occurred. Estuaries on the western Atlantic Ocean during the recent warming period had phytoplankton biomass during the winter-spring bloom decrease, zooplankton number increase, and nutrients remain elevated due to enhanced zooplankton grazing. Zooplankton numbers decreased in summer due to enhanced ctenophore predation. In these waters the loss of boreal demersal fish has been compensated by an increase in demersal decapods. The very large ecological changes caused by small increases in seasonal temperature provide an insight to the large alterations that may be associated with global warming.     

Pollen/event stratigraphy of the varved sediment of Lake Suigetsu,central Japan from 15,701 to 10,217 SG vyr BP (Suigetsu varve years before present): Description,interpretation, and correlation with other regions

High-resolution pollen data (average interval between samples<15 years) are reported on part of a varved sediment core from Lake Suigetsu, Japan, spanning the interval 15,701 to 10,217 SG vyr BP (Suigetsu varve years Before Present). This new record is compared with a previously proposed event stratigraphy based on pollen-based reconstructed changes of mean annual temperature. The deglacial climate history reconstructed at Lake Suigetsu resembles that observed in the North Atlantic, although the major boundaries of pollen zones are asynchronous with those in the North Atlantic event stratigraphy by several centuries. The onset of the Late Glacial interstadial occurred earlier in Japan than in the North Atlantic. This demonstrates that the climate in Japan was closely linked to the low-latitude Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures that first reacted to orbital forcing. Conversely, the onset of the subsequent cold reversal phase in Japan lagged that of the North Atlantic (Younger Dryas) by several centuries. The duration of this cold phase was about the same as the Younger Dryas event, but the amplitude was much reduced (4±2 °C in Δmean annual temperature). These findings support the hypothesis that this pan-hemispheric cooling event was triggered by North Atlantic forcing, most probably by a meltwater pulse and an associated change in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. However, the mechanism which transmitted the change in the North Atlantic to the Far East is unknown.     

Holocene bipolar climate seesaw: possible subtle evidence from the deep North East Atlantic Ocean?

The occurrence of a millennial‐scale bipolar climate seesaw has been documented in detail for the last glacial period and Termination. There is, however, debate whether it occurs during interglacials and if it does what influence it could have on future climate. We present here new evidence from a North East Atlantic Ocean deep‐sea core which supports the hypothesis for a Holocene bipolar climate seesaw. BENGAL Site 13078#16, from the Porcupine Abyssal Plain, is 4844 m deep and situated at the North Atlantic Deep Water and Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) interface. Planktic foraminiferal fragment accumulation rate data at this site is an indicator of coarse carbonate dissolution, which is highly sensitive to the incursion of under‐saturated AABW. Five dissolution peaks have been identified, which seem to occur approximately 500 a after each of the North Atlantic 'Bond' ice rafting pulses, suggesting a subsequent subtle shallowing of AABW. This indicates a possible lagged climatic link between North East Atlantic surface water conditions and AABW production in the Southern Ocean during the Holocene. This provides the first tentative evidence that there was a Holocene bipolar climate seesaw and that the deep ocean was involved. This study also suggests that extremely sensitive locations need to be sought as the Holocene bipolar climate seesaw seems to be very subtle compared with its glacial counterparts. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

华北克拉通与全球构造

华北克拉通是中国境内独具特色的大地构造单元,它既不同于新建立的华泰克拉通,又明显有别于扬子地台和塔里木地台。为追溯其形成和演化历史,将全球视为一个整体,在世界范围内寻找与其有宗谱关系的地体。经过认真的对比和鉴别,发现西伯利亚地台、加拿大地盾与中国的华北地台具有特殊的渊源关系。三者合计由14个太古宙原生陆壳块体,于古元古代末(1.79~2.2Ga)通过造山运动碰撞聚合在一起,形成了笔者所称的古劳亚大陆。后者最重要的地质标志就是统一的中元古代盖层,此即中国的长城系、蓟县系,俄罗斯西伯利亚的里菲系和北美洲的层群A、层群B。早寒武世,西伯利亚地台脱离了古劳亚大陆。中寒武世之初即536Ma,古劳亚大陆与形成于1000~1300Ma的Rodinia发生构造拼接,缔造了具有全球规模但命运短暂的超级大陆——Pannotia。这次构造拼接的意义不可低估,在时间上它恰好与骨骼化后生动物的快速发展(“生物大爆炸”)相吻合。过去长时间人们无法理解的,为什么远隔重洋的北美洲-澳大利亚-中国,寒武系中—上统的沉积类型和生物群具有高度一致性的问题,也随之迎刃而解。寒武纪末期510Ma,Pannotia解体并一分为二,在古劳亚大陆与古冈瓦纳大陆之间的地域形成了南太平洋。直到奥陶纪晚期即440Ma前后,古劳亚大陆才分裂,形成了北太平洋,中国北方包括华北和华泰2个克拉通在内,与北美洲的劳伦古陆和内陆地台,才各奔西东。回溯华北地台的渊源,作为一个整体它曾与西伯利亚地台共存了1.3Ga,而与北美的加拿大地盾至少共同度过1.4Ga之久。