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1.
Raphael E. Okoola 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2000,73(3-4):177-187
Summary Climatological statistics of extreme temperature events over Kenya are established from the analysis of daily and monthly
maximum temperatures for a representative station (Nairobi Dagoretti Corner) over the period 1956–1997.
The months of June to August were shown to be the coldest with a mean monthly maximum temperature of less than 22 °C. Seasonal
(June to August) mean maximum temperature was 21.5 °C. Using this seasonal mean temperature for the period 1967–1997 delineated
1968 as the coldest year in this series and 1983 as the warmest year.
Spectral analysis of the seasonal data, for both the coldest and the warmest years, revealed that the major periods were the
quasi-biweekly (10 days) and the Intraseasonal Oscillations (23 days). Secondary peaks occurred at periods of 4–6 and 2.5–3.5
days.
A temperature threshold of 16.7 °C during July was used to define cold air outbreaks over Nairobi. This threshold temperature
of 16.7 °C was obtained from the mean July maximum temperature (20.9 °C) minus two standard deviations. Notable trends include
a decrease in the frequency of station-days, between 1956 and 1997, with temperatures less than 16.7 °C during July.
Surface pressure patterns indicate that the origin of the cold air is near latitude 25° S and to the east of mainland South
Africa. The cold air near 25° S is advected northwards ahead of the surface pressure ridge.
Received July 19, 1999 Revised January 11, 2000 相似文献
2.
R. García-Herrera D. Barriopedro E. Hernández D. Paredes J. F. Correoso L. Prieto 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2005,90(3-4):225-243
Summary This paper characterizes Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) during 2001 over Iberia and the Balearic Islands and their meteorological
settings. Enhanced infrared Meteosat imagery has been used to detect their occurrence over the Western Mediterranean region
between June and December 2001 according to satellite-defined criteria based on the MCS physical characteristics.
Twelve MCSs have been identified. The results show that the occurrence of 2001 MCSs is limited to the August–October period,
with September being the most active period. They tend to develop during the late afternoon or early night, with preferred
eastern Iberian coast locations and eastward migrations. A cloud shield area of 50.000 km2 is rarely exceeded. When our results are compared with previous studies, it is possible to assert that though 2001 MCS activity
was moderate, the convective season was substantially less prolonged than usual, with shorter MCS life cycles and higher average
speeds. The average MCS precipitation rate was 3.3 mm·h−1 but a wide range of values varying from scarce precipitation to intense events of 130 mm·24 h−1 (6 September) were collected. The results suggest that, during 2001, MCS rainfall was the principal source of precipitation
in the Mediterranean region during the convective season, but its impact varied according to the location.
Synoptic analysis based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis show that several common precursors could be identified over the Western Mediterranean
Sea when the 2001 MCSs occurred: a low-level tongue of moist air and precipitable water (PW) exceeding 25 mm through the southern
portion of the Western Mediterranean area, low-level zonal warm advection over 2 °C·24 h−1 towards eastern Iberia, a modest 1000–850 hPa equivalent potential temperature (θe) difference over 20 °C located close to the eastern Iberian coast, a mid level trough (sometimes a cut-off low) over Northern
Africa or Southern Spain and high levels geostrophic vorticity advection exceeding 12·10−10 s−2 over eastern Iberia and Northern Africa. Finally, the results suggest that synoptic, orographic and a warm-air advection
were the most relevant forcing mechanisms during 2001. 相似文献
3.
Influence of vegetation changes during the Last Glacial Maximum using the BMRC atmospheric general circulation model 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
The influence of different vegetation distributions on the atmospheric circulation during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM,
21 000 years before present) is investigated. The atmospheric general circulation model of the Bureau of Meteorology Research
Center was run using a modern vegetation and in a second experiment with a vegetation reconstruction for the LGM. It is found
that a change from conifer to desert and tundra causes an additional LGM cooling of 1–2 °C in Western Europe, up to −4 °C
in North America and −6 °C in Siberia. An expansion of dryland vegetation causes an additional annual cooling of 1–2 °C for
Australia and northern Africa. On the other hand, an increase of temperature (2 °C) is found in Alaska due to changes in circulation.
In the equatorial region the LGM vegetation leads to an increased modelled temperature of 0.5–1.5 °C and decreased precipitation
(30%) over land due to a reduction of the tropical rainforest, mainly in Indonesia, where the reduction of precipitation over
land is associated with an increase of precipitation of 30% over the western Pacific.
Received: 15 December 1999 / Accepted: 10 January 2001 相似文献
4.
Summary The possibility of climate change in the Korean Peninsula has been examined in view of the general increase in greenhouse
gases. Analyses include changes in annual temperature and precipitation. These analyses are supplemented with our observations
regarding the apparent decrease of forest areas.
It was found that there was a 0.96 °C (0.42 °C per decade) increase in annual mean temperature between 1974 and 1997. The
increase in large cities was 1.5 °C but only 0.58 °C at rural and marine stations. The difference in the mean temperature
between large cities and rural stations was small from 1974 to 1981. However, the difference increased from 1982 to 1997.
In particular, the warming appears most significant in winter. Prior to 1982, the lowest temperatures were often −18 °C in
central Korea, and since then the lowest temperatures have been only −12∼−14 °C. Recently, the minimum January temperature
has increased at a rate of 1.5 °C per decade. It is estimated that the increase of1 °C in annual mean temperature corresponds
to about a 250 km northward shift of the subtropical zone boundary.
The analysis of data from 1906 to 1997 indicates a trend of increasing annual precipitation, an increase of 182 mm during
the 92-year peirod, with large year-to-year variations. More than half of the annual mean amount, 1,274 mm, occurred from
June to September.
Meteorological data and satellite observations suggest that changes have occurred in the characteristics of the quasi-stationary
fronts that produce summer rain. In recent years scattered local heavy showers usually occur with an inactive showery front,
in comparison with the classical steady rain for more than three weeks. For instance, local heavy rainfall, on 6 August 1998
was in the range of 123–481 mm. The scattered convective storms resulted in flooding with a heavy toll of approx. 500 people.
The northward shift of the inactive showery front over Korea, and of a convergence zone in central China, correlate with the
increase in temperature. It has been suggested that the decrease in forest areas and the change in ground cover also contribute
to the warming of the Korean Peninsula.
Received March 16, 2000 相似文献
5.
Summary The Siberian High is the most important atmospheric centre of action in Eurasia during the winter months. Here its variability
and relationship with temperature and precipitation is investigated for the period 1922 to 2000. The pronounced weakening
of the Siberian High during the last ∼ 20 years is its most remarkable feature. Mean temperature, averaged over middle to
high latitude Asia (30° E–140° E, 30° N–70° N), is correlated with the Siberian High central intensity (SHCI) with correlation
coefficient of − 0.58 (1922–1999), and for precipitation, the correlation coefficient is − 0.44 (1922–1998). Taking the Arctic
Oscillation (AO), the SHCI, the Eurasian teleconnection pattern (EU), and the Southern Oscillation (SO) index into account,
72 percent of the variance in temperature can be explained for the period 1949–1997 (for precipitation the variance is 26
percent), with the AO alone explaining 30 percent of the variance, and the Siberian High contributing 24 percent. The precipitation
variance explained by the Siberian High is only 9.8 percent of the total.
Received January 2, 2001 Revised November 24, 2001 相似文献
6.
Wyoming provides more fossil fuels to the remainder of the United States than any other state or country, and its citizens
remain skeptical of anthropogenic influences on their climate. However, much of the state including Yellowstone National Park
and the headwaters of several major river systems, may have already been affected by rising temperatures. This paper examines
the historic climate record from Wyoming in the context of ∼14,000-year temperature reconstructions based on fossil pollen
data. The analysis shows that 24 of 30 U.S. Historical Climatology Network records from the state show an increase in the
frequency of unusually warm years since 1978. Statewide temperatures have included 15 years (50%) from 1978 to 2007 that were
greater than 1σ above the mean annual temperature for 1895–1978. The frequent warm years coincide with a reduction in the
frequency of extremely low (<−20°C) January temperatures, and are not well explained by factors such as solar irradiance and
the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Linear regressions require inclusion of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations to explain
the multi-decadal temperature trends. The observed warming is large in Yellowstone National Park where 21 years (70%) from
1978 to 2007 were greater than 1σ above the 1895–1978 mean; the deviation from the mean (>1°C) is greater than any time in
the past 6,000 years. Recent temperatures have become as high as those experienced from 11,000 to 6,000 years ago when summer
insolation was >6% higher than today and when regional ecosystems experienced frequent severe disturbances. 相似文献
7.
Summary Spatial-temporal characteristics of temperature variations were analyzed from China daily temperature based on 486 stations
during the period 1960–2000. The method of hierarchical cluster analysis was used to divide the territory into sub-regional
areas with a coherent evolution, both annually and seasonally. Areas numbering 7–9 are chosen to describe the regional features
of air temperature in mainland China.
All regions in mainland China experienced increasing trends of annual mean temperature. The trend of increasing temperature
was about 0.2–0.3 °C/10 yr in northern China and less than 0.1 °C/10 yr in southern China. In the winter season, the increasing
trend of temperature was about 0.5–0.7 °C/10 yr in northern China and about 0.2–0.3 °C/10 yr in southern China. The increasing
trend of autumn temperature was mainly located in northwestern China and southwestern China including the Tibetan Plateau.
In spring, the rising trend of temperature was concentrated in Northeast China and North China while there was a declining
temperature trend of −0.13 °C/10 yr in the upper Yangtze River. In summer, the declining trend of temperature was only concentrated
in the mid-low valley of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers while surrounding this valley there were increasing trends in South
China, Southwest China, Northwest China, and Northeast China.
Rapid changes in temperature in various regions were detected by the multiple timescale t-test method. The year 1969 was a rapid change point from a high temperature to a low temperature along the Yangtze River
and South China. In the years 1977–1979, temperature significantly increased from a lower level to a higher level in many
places except for regions in North China and the Yangtze River. Another rapid increasing temperature trend was observed in
1987. In the years 1976–1979, a positive rapid change of summer temperature occurred in northwestern China and southwestern
China while a decreasing temperature was found between the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. A rapid increase of winter
temperature was found for 1977–1979 and 1985–1986 in many places.
There were increasing events of extreme temperature in broad areas except in the north part of Northeast China and the north
part of the Xinjiang region. In winter, increasing temperature of the climate state and weakening temperature extremes are
observed in northern China. In summer, both increasing temperature of the climate state and enhancing temperature extremes
were commonly exhibited in northern China.
Present address: Linfen Meteorological Office, Linfen 041000, Shanxi Province, China. 相似文献
8.
Variations in the Temperature Regime Across the Mediterranean During the Last Century and their Relationship with Circulation Indices 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
Summary Circulation types were identified by means of zonal and meridional indices calculated separately over ten different regions
of 20°×20° over the Mediterranean and Europe. Seasonal temperature trends in 22 grid boxes of 5°×5° covering the entire Mediterranean,
and at six stations Lisbon, Madrid, Florence, Luqa (Malta), Athens and Jerusalem, were calculated.
A warming trend in the period 1873–1989 was detected. The warming is more evident in the western Mediterranean with an average
rate of about 0.4 [°C/100 yr], than in the eastern Mediterranean with an increase of only 0.2 [°C/100 yr]. A cooling trend
in autumn in the eastern Mediterranean with an average rate of −0.5 [°C/100 yr] was detected and attributed to an increase
in northerly meridional circulation in that region.
Warming trends at Lisbon, Madrid, Florence, Athens and Jerusalem, were more important than the trends in the grid boxes containing
these stations. This rapid warming was attributed to urban effects. No such effects were found in Luqa due to its location
and the lack of urban effects there.
Temperatures at Luqa, Athens and Jerusalem are highly positively correlated. Likewise, temperatures at Lisbon and Madrid.
Temperatures at Florence are either correlated with Madrid or with Luqa. Negative or no correlations were found between Lisbon
or Madrid with Athens or Jerusalem, except during the winter. This was attributed to the fact that favourable circulation
for high temperatures in the eastern stations was opposite to the favourable circulation for high temperatures in the western
stations and vice versa.
Finally, the above reinforces the concept of a Mediterranean Oscillation between the western and eastern basins.
Received November 14, 1997 Revised June 2, 1998 相似文献
9.
Pessacg Natalia Flaherty Silvia Solman Silvina Pascual Miguel 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2020,140(3):807-822
The current study presents an assessment of the impact of climate change on water yield, one of the main hydrological ecosystem services, in northern Patagonia. The outputs of regional climate models from the CORDEX Project for South America were used to drive the InVEST water yield model. CORDEX regional climate models project for the far future (2071–2100) an increase in temperature higher than 1.5 °C and a precipitation decrease ranging from − 10 to − 30% for the study area. The projected warmer and dryer climate emerges as a robust signal based on model agreement and on consistent physical drivers of these changes. Moreover, both the projected increase in evapotranspiration and the decrease in precipitation contribute to a strong decrease in water yield of around − 20 to − 40% in the headwaters of northern Patagonian watersheds. Comparison of the results in the two basins reveals that the land cover may be considered a buffer of water yield changes and highlights the key role of protected areas in reducing the vulnerability of water resources to climate change. 相似文献
10.
Summary Near surface climate was observed through temperature profiling from the surface to 2.47 m height in an urban vegetated park
and its surroundings in central Stockholm, Sweden. Measurements were conducted during three summer days by mobile traverses.
Air temperature differences between the built-up area and the park were in the range of 0.5–0.8 °C during the day and reached
a maximum of 2 °C at sunset. The thermal stratification of the air was mainly stable in the park and unstable in the built-up
area. Inverse air temperature profiles in the park were less stable in open than in shady areas, and close to neutral at midday.
The most unstable air was found in the north–south orientated canyons in the early afternoon. Possible heat advection from
the surroundings, and thus uncoupling between the surface and the air, was identified through temperature gradients pointing
at different directions within the 2.47 m profile. Examples at midday indicated that warm air advected as far as 150 m into
the park. 相似文献
11.
In order to improve the reliability of climate reconstruction, especially the climatologies outside the modern observed climate
space, an improved inverse vegetation model using a recent version of BIOME4 has been designed to quantitatively reconstruct
past climates, based on pollen biome scores from the BIOME6000 project. The method has been validated with surface pollen
spectra from Eurasia and Africa, and applied to palaeoclimate reconstruction. At 6 cal ka BP (calendar years), the climate
was generally wetter than today in southern Europe and northern Africa, especially in the summer. Winter temperatures were
higher (1–5°C) than present in southern Scandinavia, northeastern Europe, and southern Africa, but cooler in southern Eurasia
and in tropical Africa, especially in Mediterranean regions. Summer temperatures were generally higher than today in most
of Eurasia and Africa, with a significant warming from ∼3 to 5°C over northwestern and southern Europe, southern Africa, and
eastern Africa. In contrast, summers were 1–3°C cooler than present in the Mediterranean lowlands and in a band from the eastern
Black Sea to Siberia. At 21 cal ka BP, a marked hydrological change can be seen in the tropical zone, where annual precipitation
was ∼200–1,000 mm/year lower than today in equatorial East Africa compared to the present. A robust inverse relationship is
shown between precipitation change and elevation in Africa. This relationship indicates that precipitation likely had an important
role in controlling equilibrium-line altitudes (ELA) changes in the tropics during the LGM period. In Eurasia, hydrological
decreases follow a longitudinal gradient from Europe to Siberia. Winter temperatures were ∼10–17°C lower than today in Eurasia
with a more significant decrease in northern regions. In Africa, winter temperature was ∼10–15°C lower than present in the
south, while it was only reduced by ∼0–3°C in the tropical zone. Comparison of palaeoclimate reconstructions using LGM and
modern CO2 concentrations reveals that the effect of CO2 on pollen-based LGM reconstructions differs by vegetation type. Reconstructions for pollen sites in steppic vegetation in
Europe show warmer winter temperatures under LGM CO2 concentrations than under modern concentrations, and reconstructions for sites in xerophytic woods/scrub in tropical high
altitude regions of Africa are wetter for LGM CO2 concentrations than for modern concentrations, because our reconstructions account for decreased plant water use efficiency. 相似文献
12.
Harsh Oza Virendra Padhya Akash Ganguly K. Saikranthi T. N. Rao R. D. Deshpande 《Climate Dynamics》2020,54(5):2745-2757
Long term (2005–2016) daily precipitation isotope data (δ18O, δD and d-excess) from Ahmedabad in semi-arid Western India are examined in light of various meteorological parameters and air parcel trajectories to identify prominent patterns in the isotopic character and discern the underlying hydrometeorological processes. One of the most prominent and systematic annual patterns is the isotopic depletion (average δ18O: − 2.5‰ in Jun–Jul; − 5.2‰ in Aug–Sept) in the second half of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), which is observed in the 11 out of the 12 years of this study. Four geographically feasible causal factors have been examined if they contribute to observed late monsoon isotopic depletion. These factors are: (1) increased contribution of terrestrially recycled vapor; (2) intra-seasonal change in sea-surface, surface-air and cloud base temperatures; (3) increased rain-out fraction from marine vapor parcel; and (4) increase in relative proportion of convective rain. It is inferred from the present study that isotopic depletion in the second half of ISM is associated with: (1) increased contribution (45% from 36%) of terrestrially recycled moisture; (2) 1.9° C lower cloud base temperature; (3) increased rainout fraction due to decreased wind velocity (6.9 m/s from 8.8 m/s); and (4) an increase of 22.3% in the proportion of convective rain. Daily rain events with atypical isotopic composition (20‰ < d-excess < 0‰) are ascribed mainly to local weather perturbations causing sudden updraft of moist air facilitating terrestrial recycling of water vapor. 相似文献
13.
S. H. Sajjad Babar Hussain M. Ahmed Khan Asif Raza B. Zaman Ijaz Ahmed 《Climatic change》2009,96(4):539-547
Karachi is the largest city of Pakistan. The temperature change in Karachi is studied in this research by analyzing the time
series data of mean maximum temperature (MMxT), mean minimum temperature (MMiT) and mean annual temperature (MAT) from 1947
to 2005 (59 years). Data is analyzed in three parts by running linear regression and by taking anomalies of all time periods:
(a) whole period from 1947–2005; (b) phase one 1947–1975 and (c) phase two 1976–2005. During 1947 to 2005 MMxT has increased
about 4.6°C, MMiT has no change and MAT has increased 2.25°C. During 1947–1975, MMxT increased 1.9°C, in this period there
is − 1.3°C decrease in MMiT and MAT has raised upto 0.3°C. During 1976–2005, the MMxT, MMiT and MAT increased 2.7°C, 1.2°C
and 1.95°C, respectively. The analysis shows significantly the role of extreme vulnerability of MMxT in rising the temperature
of Karachi than the MMiT. 相似文献
14.
Ernest M. Agee 《Climatic change》1982,4(4):399-418
A diagnostic study of 80 yrs(1901–80) of surface temperatures collected at West Lafayette, Indiana, has been found to be in
tune with the global trend and that for the eastern two-thirds of the United States, namely, cold at the turn of the century,
warming up to about 1940, and then cooling to present. The study was divided into two cold periods (1901–18, 1947–80) and
a warm period (1919–46), based on the distribution of annual mean temperature. Decadal mean annual temperatures ranged from
10 °C in period I to 12.2 °C in period II, to 9.4 °C during the present cold period. Themean annual temperature for the 80 yr ranged from the coldest of 8.7 °C in 1979 to the warmest of 13.6 °C in 1939. Thedaily mean temperature for the entire 80-yr ranged from -4.7 °C on 31 January to 25.1 °C on 27 July. Thecoldest daily mean was -26.7 °C on 17 January, 1977, and thewarmest daily mean was 35 °C on 14 July, 1936. The range of values for thedaily mean maximum temperatures was -.2 °C on 31 January to 31.4 °C on 27 July. Corresponding values for thedaily mean minimum are -9.2 °C on 31 January and 18.7 °C on 27 July. The all-time extreme temperatures are -30.6 °C on 26 February, 1963 and
43.9 °C on 14 July, 1936.
Climatic variability has been considered by computing the standard deviations of a) the daily mean maximum and minimum temperature
per year, and b) the daily mean maximum and minimum temperatures for each day of the year for the 80-yr period. These results
have shown that there is more variability in the daily mean maximum per year than in the daily mean minimum, for each year
of the 80-yr period. Also the variability for both extremes has been greater in each of the two cold periods than in the warm
period. Particularly noticeable has been theincrease in the variability of the daily mean minima per year during the current cooling trend. Further, it has been determined that
the variability in the daily mean maxima and minima for each day of the year (based on the entire 80 yrs is a) two times greater
in the winter than in the summer for both extremes, and b) about the same for each in the summer, greater for daily maximum
in the spring and fall, but greater for the daily minimum during the winter. The latter result is undoubtedly related to the
effect of snow cover on daily minimum temperatures.
An examination of daily record maximum and minimum temperatures has been made to help establish climatic trends this century.
For the warm period, 175 record maxima and 68 record minima were set, compared to 213 record minima and 105 record maxima
during the recent cold period. For West Lafayette, the present climatic trend is definitely one of extreme record-breaking
cold. Evidence has also been presented to show the substantial increases in snowfall amounts in the lee regions of the Great
Lakes during the present cold period, due to the lake-induced snow squalls associated with cold air mass intrusions. The possible
impact of the cooling trend on agricultural activities has also been noted, due to a reduced growing season. 相似文献
15.
Dan Li Yusi Chen Tiesong Hu Yuanlai Cui Yufeng Luo Hongying Luo Qiang Meng 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2020,140(3):1043-1054
Characterizing the response of temperature variables to agricultural irrigation is expected to be an important challenge for understanding the full impact of water management on regional climate change. In this paper, the trend analysis and abrupt change test were applied to detect the global warming effect. Then, the quantitative irrigation-induced cooling effects on temperature variables between April and August from 1970 to 2010 in the Lhasa River basin were estimated using historical time series of gridded meteorological records and a map of the area equipped for irrigation. Trends in the maximum temperature (Tmax) were statistically positive, and a significant increasing trend for the minimum temperature (Tmin) was detected at the 0.01 and 0.05 confidence levels. No abrupt changing point of warming was detected in the time series for Tmax. The abrupt changes in Tmin in the irrigation concentration period took place in 1995, 5 years later than the corresponding change in April. Affected by global warming, the increase in temperature was the largest in July and August, when the irrigation-induced cooling effect was also the most significant. The irrigation-induced cooling effect for Tmax and Tmin in April–August (except for June) ranged from − 0.017 to − 0.009 °C/decade and from − 0.011 to − 0.001 °C/decade, respectively, and the cooling effect for diurnal temperature range (DTR) ranged from − 0.011 to 0 °C/decade. The cooling effect on temperature reached above 0.01 °C in July and August, but for the growing seasons, the effect was weak, only 0.001 °C. The Tmax and Tmin trends during the whole growing seasons decreased by both 0.002 °C/decade, respectively, with a 10% increase in irrigation land proportion. Even in July and August, the trends were expected to decrease by about 0.005 °C/decade with a 10% increase in irrigation land proportion. The irrigation-induced cooling effect could partially slow global warming. 相似文献
16.
R. Villalba E. R. Cook R. D. D’Arrigo G. C. Jacoby P. D. Jones M. J. Salinger J. Palmer 《Climate Dynamics》1997,13(6):375-390
A tree-ring chronology network recently developed from the subantarctic forests provides an opportunity to study long-term
climatic variability at higher latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. Fifty long (1911–1985), homogeneous records of monthly
mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) from the southern latitudes (15–65 °S) were intercorrelated on a seasonal basis to establish the most consistent, long-term Trans-Polar teleconnections during
this century. Variations in summer MSLP between the South America-Antarctic Peninsula and the New Zealand sectors of the Southern
Ocean are significantly correlated in a negative sense (r=−0.53, P<0.001). Climatically sensitive chronologies from Tierra del Fuego (54–55°) and New Zealand (39–47°) were used to develop verifiable reconstructions of summer (November to February) MSLP for both sectors of the Southern Ocean.
These reconstructions, which explain between 37 and 43% of the instrumentally recorded pressure variance, indicate that inverse
trends in MSLP from diametrically opposite sides of Antarctica have prevailed during the past two centuries. However, the
strength of this relationship varies over time. Differences in normalized MSLP between the New Zealand and the South America-Antarctic
Peninsula sectors were used to develop a Summer Trans-Polar Index (STPI), which represents an index of sea-level pressure
wavenumber one in the Southern Hemisphere higher latitudes. Tree-ring based reconstructions of STPI show significant differences
in large-scale atmospheric circulation between the nineteenth and the twentieth centuries. Predominantly-negative STPI values
during the nineteenth century are consistent with more cyclonic activity and lower summer temperatures in the New Zealand
sector during the 1800s. In contrast, cyclonic activity appears to have been stronger in the mid-twentieth than previously
for the South American sector of the Southern Ocean. Recent variations in MSLP in both regions are seen as part of the long-term
dynamics of the atmosphere connecting opposite sides of Antarctica. A detailed analysis of the MSLP and STPI reconstructions
in the time and frequency domains indicates that much of the interannual variability is principally confined to frequency
bands with a period around 3.3–3.6 y. Cross spectral analysis between the STPI reconstruction and the Southern Oscillation
Index suggests that teleconnections between the tropical ocean and extra-tropical MSLP variations may be influencing climate
fluctuations at southern latitudes.
Received: 18 December 1996/Accepted: 10 January 1997 相似文献
17.
Summary This paper investigates the warming trend and interannual variability of surface air temperatures in the Malaysian region
during the period 1961–2002. The trend analyses show that most regions in Malaysia experience warming over the period at comparable
rates to those in regions surrounding the Bay of Bengal. The regions of Peninsular Malaysia and northern Borneo experience
warming rates of between 2.7–4.0 °C/100 years. However, the warming rates are lower in the south-western region of Borneo.
The interannual variability of Malaysian temperature is largely dominated by the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Regardless
of the warming trends, all regions in Malaysia experience uniform warming during an El Ni?o event, particularly during the
October–November–December (OND) and the January–February–March (JFM) periods. This uniform warming is associated with the
latent heat released from the central eastern Pacific region and forced adiabatic subsidence in the Maritime Continent during
an El Ni?o event. During its early development period i.e. during the July–August–September (JAS) season, the El Ni?o’s impact
on the Malaysian temperatures is relatively weak compare to its influence during the OND and JFM seasons. However, the warming
continues to the April–May–June (AMJ) season although during this period the anomalous conditions in the eastern central Pacific
have begun or have returned to normal. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode exerts an influence on Malaysian temperatures. When
it co-occurs with ENSO, it tends to weaken the ENSO influence particularly during an OND period. However, it appears to have
an appreciable influence only during an AMJ period when it occurs in the absence of an ENSO event. Despite the strong influence
of the ENSO, the warming rates during the 42-year period appears to be least affected by interannual variability. 相似文献
18.
Summary ?A calendar of the negative and positive phases of the North Sea – Caspian Pattern (NCP) for the period 1958–1998 was used to analyse the implication of the NCP upper level teleconnections on the regional climate of the eastern Mediterranean basin. Series of monthly mean air temperature
and monthly total rainfall from 33 stations across Greece, Turkey and Israel, for the same period, were used. For each month,
from October to April, averages of the monthly mean temperatures and the monthly rainfall totals as well as the standardized
values of both parameters were calculated separately for the negative (NCP (−)) and the positive (NCP (+)) phases of the NCP.
At all stations and in all months, temperature values were significantly higher during the NCP (−) as compared with the NCP (+). Furthermore, apart from very few exceptions, the absolute monthly mean maximum and monthly mean minimum values were
obtained during the NCP (−) and the NCP (+) phases, respectively. The maximum impact of the NCP on mean air temperature was detected in the continental Anatolian Plateau, where the mean seasonal differences are around 3.5 °C. This influence decreases westwards and southwards.
The influence on the rainfall regime is more complex. Regions exposed to the southern maritime trajectories, in Greece and
in Turkey, receive more rainfall during the NCP (−) phase, whereas in the regions exposed to the northern maritime trajectories, such as Crete in Greece, the Black Sea region in Turkey, and in all regions of Israel, there is more rainfall during the NCP (+) phase. The accumulated rainfall differences between the two phases are over 50% of the seasonal average for some stations.
A comparison of the capabilities of the NCP, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Southern Oscillation (SO) indices to differentiate between below and above normal temperatures was made. The results have placed the NCP, as the best by far of all three teleconnections in its ability to differentiate between below or above normal temperatures
and as the main teleconnection affecting the climate of the Balkans, the Anatolian Peninsula and the Middle East. These results may serve to downscale General Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios to a regional scale and provide forecasts
regarding eventual temperature and/or precipitation changes.
Received June 25, 2001; revised February 25, 2002; accepted March 3, 2002 相似文献
19.
The climatological summer monsoon onset displays a distinct step wise northeastward movement over the South China Sea and
the western North Pacific (WNP) (110°–160°E, 10°–20°N). Monsoon rain commences over the South China Sea-Philippines region
in mid-May, extends abruptly to the southwestern Philippine Sea in early to mid-June, and finally penetrates to the northeastern
part of the domain around mid-July. In association, three abrupt changes are identified in the atmospheric circulation. Specifically,
the WNP subtropical high displays a sudden eastward retreat or quick northward displacement and the monsoon trough pushes
abruptly eastward or northeastward at the onset of the three stages. The step wise movement of the onset results from the
slow northeastward seasonal evolution of large-scale circulation and the phase-locked intraseasonal oscillation (ISO). The
seasonal evolution establishes a large-scale background for the development of convection and the ISO triggers deep convection.
The ISO over the WNP has a dominant period of about 20–30 days. This determines up the time interval between the consecutive
stages of the monsoon onset. From the atmospheric perspective, the seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) change in the WNP
plays a critical role in the northeastward advance of the onset. The seasonal northeastward march of the warmest SST tongue
(SST exceeding 29.5 °C) favors the northeastward movement of the monsoon trough and the high convective instability region.
The seasonal SST change, in turn, is affected by the monsoon through cloud-radiation and wind-evaporation feedbacks.
Received: 19 October 1999 / Accepted: 5 June 2000 相似文献
20.
A scenario of the Mediterranean Sea is performed for the twenty-first century based on an ocean modelling approach. A climate change IPCC-A2 scenario run with an atmosphere regional climate model is used to force a Mediterranean Sea high-resolution ocean model over the 1960–2099 period. For comparison, a control simulation as long as the scenario has also been carried out under present climate fluxes. This control run shows air–sea fluxes in agreement with observations, stable temperature and salinity characteristics and a realistic thermohaline circulation simulating the different intermediate and deep water masses described in the literature. During the scenario, warming and saltening are simulated for the surface (+3.1°C and + 0.48 psu for the Mediterranean Sea at the end of the twenty-first century) and for the deeper layers (+1.5°C and + 0.23 psu on average). These simulated trends are in agreement with observed trends for the Mediterranean Sea over the last decades. In addition, the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation (MTHC) is strongly weakened at the end of the twenty-first century. This behaviour is mainly due to the decrease in surface density and so the decrease in winter deep-water formation. At the end of the twenty-first century, the MTHC weakening can be evaluated as −40% for the intermediate waters and −80% for the deep circulation with respect to present-climate conditions. The characteristics of the Mediterranean Outflow Waters flowing into the Atlantic Ocean are also strongly influenced during the scenario. 相似文献