IPCC global coupled model simulations of the South America monsoon system

This study examines the variability of the South America monsoon system (SAMS) over tropical South America (SA). The onset, end, and total rainfall during the summer monsoon are investigated using precipitation pentad estimates from the global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) 1979–2006. Likewise, the variability of SAMS characteristics is examined in ten Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global coupled climate models in the twentieth century (1981–2000) and in a future scenario of global change (A1B) (2081–2100). It is shown that most IPCC models misrepresent the inter-tropical convergence zone and therefore do not capture the actual annual cycle of precipitation over the Amazon and northwest SA. Most models can correctly represent the spatiotemporal variability of the annual cycle of precipitation in central and eastern Brazil such as the correct phase of dry and wet seasons, onset dates, duration of rainy season and total accumulated precipitation during the summer monsoon for the twentieth century runs. Nevertheless, poor representation of the total monsoonal precipitation over the Amazon and northeast Brazil is observed in a large majority of the models. Overall, MIROC3.2-hires, MIROC3.2-medres and MRI-CGCM3.2.3 show the most realistic representation of SAMS’s characteristics such as onset, duration, total monsoonal precipitation, and its interannual variability. On the other hand, ECHAM5, GFDL-CM2.0 and GFDL-CM2.1 have the least realistic representation of the same characteristics. For the A1B scenario the most coherent feature observed in the IPCC models is a reduction in precipitation over central-eastern Brazil during the summer monsoon, comparatively with the present climate. The IPCC models do not indicate statistically significant changes in SAMS onset and demise dates for the same scenario.     

Simulation of the summer circulation over South America by two regional climate models. Part II: A comparison between 1997/1998 El Niño and 1998/1999 La Niña events

Summary This study investigates the capabilities of two regional models (the ICTP RegCM3 and the climate version of the CPTEC Eta model – EtaClim) in simulating the summer quasi-stationary circulations over South America during two extreme cases: the 1997–1998 El Ni?o and 1998–1999 La Ni?a. The results showed that both the models are successful in simulating the interannual variability of summer quasi-stationary circulation over South America. Both the models simulated the intensification of subtropical jet stream during the El Ni?o event, which favoured the blocking of transient systems and increased the precipitation over south Brazil. The models simulated the increase (decrease) of precipitation over north (west) Amazonia during the La Ni?a (El Ni?o) event. The upper level circulation is in agreement with the simulated distribution of precipitation. In general, the results showed that both the models are capable of capturing the main changes of the summer climate over South America during these two extreme cases and consequently they have potential to predict climate anomalies.     

Uncertainty assessments of climate change projections over South America

This paper assesses the uncertainties involved in the projections of seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over South America in the twenty-first century. Climate simulations generated by 24 general circulation models are weighted according to the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) approach. The results show that the REA mean temperature change is slightly smaller over South America compared to the simple ensemble mean. Higher reliability in the temperature projections is found over the La Plata basin, and a larger uncertainty range is located in the Amazon. A temperature increase exceeding 2 °C is found to have a very likely (>90 %) probability of occurrence for the entire South American continent in all seasons, and a more likely than not (>50 %) probability of exceeding 4 °C by the end of this century is found over northwest South America, the Amazon Basin, and Northeast Brazil. For precipitation, the projected changes have the same magnitude as the uncertainty range and are comparable to natural variability.     

RegCM3 regional climatologies for South America using reanalysis and ECHAM global model driving fields

To enable downscaling of seasonal prediction and climate change scenarios, long-term baseline regional climatologies which employ global model forcing are needed for South America. As a first step in this process, this work examines climatological integrations with a regional climate model using a continental scale domain nested in both reanalysis data and multiple realizations of an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The analysis presents an evaluation of the nested model simulated large scale circulation, mean annual cycle and interannual variability which is compared against observational estimates and also with the driving GCM for the Northeast, Amazon, Monsoon and Southeast regions of South America. Results indicate that the regional climate model simulates the annual cycle of precipitation well in the Northeast region and Monsoon regions; it exhibits a dry bias during winter (July–September) in the Southeast, and simulates a semi-annual cycle with a dry bias in summer (December–February) in the Amazon region. There is little difference in the annual cycle between the GCM and renalyses driven simulations, however, substantial differences are seen in the interannual variability. Despite the biases in the annual cycle, the regional model captures much of the interannual variability observed in the Northeast, Southeast and Amazon regions. In the Monsoon region, where remote influences are weak, the regional model improves upon the GCM, though neither show substantial predictability. We conclude that in regions where remote influences are strong and the global model performs well it is difficult for the regional model to improve the large scale climatological features, indeed the regional model may degrade the simulation. Where remote forcing is weak and local processes dominate, there is some potential for the regional model to add value. This, however, will require improvments in physical parameterizations for high resolution tropical simulations.     

Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models

Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961–1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071–2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5°N–15°S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6–8°C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4°C and in winter between 3 and 5°C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and southeastern Brazil.     

Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, S?o Francisco and the Paraná River basins

The objective of this study is to assess the climate projections over South America using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model HadCM3. The global model ensemble was run over the twenty-first century according to the SRES A1B emissions scenario, but with each member having a different climate sensitivity. The four members selected to drive the Eta-CPTEC model span the sensitivity range in the global model ensemble. The Eta-CPTEC model nested in these lateral boundary conditions was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over 1961–1990 to represent baseline climate, and 2011–2100 to simulate possible future changes. Results presented here focus on austral summer and winter climate of 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 periods, for South America and for three major river basins in Brazil. Projections of changes in upper and low-level circulation and the mean sea level pressure (SLP) fields simulate a pattern of weakening of the tropical circulation and strengthening of the subtropical circulation, marked by intensification at the surface of the Chaco Low and the subtropical highs. Strong warming (4–6°C) of continental South America increases the temperature gradient between continental South America and the South Atlantic. This leads to stronger SLP gradients between continent and oceans, and to changes in moisture transport and rainfall. Large rainfall reductions are simulated in Amazonia and Northeast Brazil (reaching up to 40%), and rainfall increases around the northern coast of Peru and Ecuador and in southeastern South America, reaching up to 30% in northern Argentina. All changes are more intense after 2040. The Precipitation–Evaporation (P–E) difference in the A1B downscaled scenario suggest water deficits and river runoff reductions in the eastern Amazon and S?o Francisco Basin, making these regions susceptible to drier conditions and droughts in the future.     

Exploring the impacts of the tropical Pacific SST on the precipitation patterns over South America during ENSO periods

Summary Previous studies on precipitation over South America that strongly support the existence of links between precipitation and SST anomalies in the Pacific Ocean have identified specific regions where the ENSO signal is particularly stronger. Northeast of Brazil and some parts of southern South America are examples of these regions. However, the same attention was not taken to identify which regions in the Central and East Pacific ocean are better correlated with the South America precipitation during extreme ENSO events, and also which are the transition regions of the precipitation signal over South America during these events. Coincident periods of ENSO events for both SST over the tropical Pacific ocean and monthly precipitation sums from many observational stations over South America were selected and analyzed. Two statistical methods were used for the data analysis: Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) and Simple Linear Correlation (SLC). The SVD results for warmer events in the Pacific corroborate previous ones and also clearly identified a transition region between the drier conditions in the Northeast of Brazil and the wetter conditions in the Southeast/South of Brazil. Transition regions were also determined over Peru and central Amazon. The SLC results indicated that the SST anomalies in the tropical east Pacific ocean has the strongest influence in the South American precipitation during El Ni?o events. During La Ni?a events the central area of the Pacific, around 180°, has shown a more significant influence. Received August 10, 2000 Revised August 22, 2001     

How do La Niña events disturb the summer monsoon system in Brazil?

The rainy season in most of Brazil is associated with the summer monsoon regime in South America. The quality of this season is important because it rains little during the rest of the year over most of the country. In this study, the influence of La Niña events on the summer monsoon circulation, rainfall and temperature is analyzed with seasonal and monthly resolution, using data from a dense network of stations, giving a comprehensive view of the impact of these events. The expected precipitation percentiles during the monsoon season of La Niña events are calculated, as well as anomalies of surface temperature and thermodynamic parameters. This information is analyzed jointly with anomaly composites of several circulation parameters. The analysis shows that some anomalies, which are consistent and important during part of the season, are smoothed out in a seasonal analysis. There are abrupt changes of anomalies within the summer monsoon season, suggesting the prevalence of regional processes over remote influences during part of the season. In spring there are positive precipitation anomalies in north and central-east Brazil and negative ones in south Brazil. These precipitation anomalies are favored by the perturbation in the Walker and Hadley circulation over the eastern Pacific and South America, and by perturbations in the rotational circulation over southern South America. Northerly moisture inflow from the Atlantic into northern South America is emphasized and diverted towards the mouth of the Amazon by the low-level cyclonic anomaly north of the equator. In December and January, probably triggered by anomalous surface cooling during the spring, there is an anomalous low-level divergence and an anticyclonic anomaly over southeast Brazil. This anomalous circulation directs moisture flux towards south Brazil, causing moisture convergence in part of this region and part of central-west Brazil. The thermodynamic structure in central-east Brazil does not favor precipitation over this region, and the wet anomalies in north Brazil are displaced northward. The dry anomalies in south Brazil almost disappear and even turn positive. In February, after the strongly below normal precipitation of January, the surface temperature anomalies turn positive over southeast Brazil. The low-level anticyclonic anomaly is much weaker than in January. There are positive rainfall anomalies in north Brazil and in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone, and negative ones return to south Brazil.     

The South Atlantic dipole and variations in the characteristics of the South American Monsoon in the WCRP-CMIP3 multi-model simulations

This study investigates relationships between Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and the variability of the characteristics of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS), such as the onset dates and total precipitation over central eastern Brazil. The observed onset and total summer monsoon precipitation are estimated for the period 1979?C2007. SST patterns are obtained from the Empirical Orthogonal Function. It is shown that variations in SST on interannual timescales over the South Atlantic Ocean play an important role in the total summer monsoon precipitation. Negative (positive) SST anomalies over the topical South Atlantic along with positive (negative) SST anomalies over the extratropical South Atlantic are associated with early (late) onsets and wet (dry) summers over southeastern Brazil and late (early) onset and dry (wet) summers over northeastern Brazil. Simulations from Phase 3 of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-3) are assessed for the 20th century climate scenario (1971?C2000). Most CMIP3 coupled models reproduce the main modes of variability of the South Atlantic Ocean. GFDL2.0 and MIROC-M are the models that best represent the SST variability over the South Atlantic. On the other hand, these models do not succeed in representing the relationship between SST and SAMS variability.     

Effects of Amazon basin deforestation on regional atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport towards tropical South America

The water cycle over the Amazon basin is a regulatory mechanism for regional and global climate. The atmospheric moisture evaporated from this basin represents an important source of humidity for itself and for other remote regions. The deforestation rates that this basin has experienced in the past decades have implications for regional atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport. In this study, we analyzed the changes in atmospheric moisture transport towards tropical South America during the period 1961–2010, according to two deforestation scenarios of the Amazon defined by Alves et al. (Theor Appl Climatol 100(3-4):337–350, 2017). These scenarios consider deforested areas of approximately 28% and 38% of the Amazon basin, respectively. The Dynamic Recycling Model is used to track the transport of water vapor from different sources in tropical South America and the surrounding oceans. Our results indicate that under deforestation scenarios in the Amazon basin, continental sources reduce their contributions to northern South America at an annual scale by an average of between 40 and 43% with respect to the baseline state. Our analyses suggest that these changes may be related to alterations in the regional Hadley and Walker cells. Amazon deforestation also induces a strengthening of the cross-equatorial flow that transports atmospheric moisture from the Tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea to tropical South America during the austral summer. A weakening of the cross-equatorial flow is observed during the boreal summer, reducing moisture transport from the Amazon to latitudes further north. These changes alter the patterns of precipitable water contributions to tropical South America from both continental and oceanic sources. Finally, we observed that deforestation over the Amazon basin increases the frequency of occurrence of longer dry seasons in the central-southern Amazon (by between 29 and 57%), depending on the deforestation scenario considered, as previous studies suggest.     

Soil-precipitation feedbacks during the South American Monsoon as simulated by a regional climate model

We summarize the recent progress in regional climate modeling in South America with the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA3-E), with emphasis on soil moisture processes. A series of climatological integrations using a continental scale domain nested in reanalysis data were carried out for the initial and mature stages of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) of 1993–92 and were analyzed on seasonal and monthly timescales. The role of including a spatially varying soil depth, which extends to 8 m in tropical forest, was evaluated against the standard constant soil depth of the model of about 2 m, through two five member ensemble simulations. The influence of the soil depth was relatively weak, with both beneficial and detrimental effects on the simulation of the seasonal mean rainfall. Secondly, two ensembles that differ in their initial state of soil moisture were prepared to study the influence of anomalously dry and wet soil moisture initial conditions on the intraseasonal development of the SAMS. In these simulations the austral winter soil moisture initial condition has a strong influence on wet season rainfall over feed back upon the monsoon, not only over the Amazon region but in subtropical South America as well. Finally, we calculated the soil moisture–precipitation coupling strength through comparing a ten member ensemble forced by the same space–time series of soil moisture fields with an ensemble with interactive soil moisture. Coupling strength is defined as the degree to which the prescribed boundary conditions affect some atmospheric quantity in a climate model, in this context a quantification of the fraction of atmospheric variability that can be ascribed to soil moisture anomalies. La Plata Basin appears as a region where the precipitation is partly controlled by soil moisture, especially in November and January. The continental convective monsoon regions and subtropical South America appears as a region with relatively high coupling strength during the mature phase of monsoon development.     

The relationship between South Atlantic SST and SACZ intensity and positioning

This study explores the ocean–atmosphere interaction in the formation and dynamics of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), through the analysis of the heat sources estimated through the outgoing longwave radiation. The results obtained with this study show that the coupled variability between SACZ and the South Atlantic Ocean indicates that in northern positioned SACZ cases (over Southeastern Brazil), westerly anomalies are verified in the low level continental tropical circulation, consistent with the active phase of the South America Monsoon System (SAMS). In these cases, cold anomalies in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean cause an increase in the continent–ocean temperature gradient, favoring an easterly flow in this region, and blocking the SACZ at a northerly position. Easterly anomalies in the tropical continent were verified in the low level circulation in southern positioned cases (over Southern Brazil), consistent with the SAMS break phase. The SST anomaly patterns indicate cold anomalies in the tropics and warm anomalies in the subtropics, which do not favor the development of an easterly flow at low levels over the western tropical Atlantic. In these cases, two situations may occur: the strengthening of the Low Level Jet (LLJ), which prevails in the eastern subtropical South America and convergence with the South Atlantic Subtropical High at its southern position; or the atmospheric unstable conditions caused by ocean warm SST anomalies (in this case the LLJ may be weaker than its climatological intensity).     

Observational and modelling studies of Amazonia interannual climate variability

The interannual variability of climate in the Amazon basin is studied using precipitation and river level anomalies observed near the March/April rainy season peak for the period 1980–86, supported by satellite imagery of tropical convection. Evaluation of this data in conjunction with the corresponding circulation and sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns indicates that abundant rainy seasons in Northern Amazonia are characterized by anomalously cold surface waters in the tropical eastern Pacific, and negative/positive SST anomalies in the tropical North/South Atlantic, accelerated Northeast trades and a southward displaced Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over the Atlantic sector. Years with deficient rainfall show broadly opposite patterns.General circulation model (GCM) experiments using observed SST in three case studies were aimed at testing the teleconnections between SST and Amazon climate implied by the empirical analysis. The GCM-generated surface fields resemble the corresponding observers fields most closely over the tropical Pacific and, with one exception, over the tropical Atlantic as well. The modeled precipitation features, along the Northwest coast of South America, anomalies of opposite sign to the North and South of the equator, in agreement with observations and results from a different GCM. Similarities in simulations run from different initial conditions, but using the same global SST, indicate broad consistency in response to common boundary forcing.     

Influence of the Andes Mountains on South American moisture transport, convection, and precipitation

Mountain ranges are known to have a first-order control on mid-latitude climate, but previous studies have shown that the Andes have little effect on the large-scale circulation over South America. We use a limited-domain general circulation model (RegCM3) to evaluate the effect of the Andes on regional-scale atmospheric dynamics and precipitation. We present experiments in which Andean heights are specified at 250 m, and 25, 50, 75, and 100% of their modern values. Our experiments indicate that the Andes have a significant influence on moisture transport between the Amazon Basin and the central Andes, deep convective processes, and precipitation over much of South America through mechanical forcing of the South American low-level jet (LLJ) and topographic blocking of westerly flow from the Pacific Ocean. When the Andes are absent, the LLJ is absent and moisture transport over the central Andes is mainly northeastward. As a result, deep convection is suppressed and precipitation is low along the Andes. Above 50% of the modern elevation, a southward flowing LLJ develops along the eastern Andean flanks and transports moisture from the tropics to the subtropics. Moisture drawn from the Amazon Basin provides the latent energy required to drive convection and precipitation along the Andean front. Large northerly moisture flux and reduced low-level convergence over the Amazon Basin leads to a reduction in precipitation over much of the basin. Our model results are largely consistent with proxy evidence of Andean climate change, and have implications for the timing and rate of Andean surface uplift.     

Extension and Intensification of the Meso-American mid-summer drought in the twenty-first century

Recent global-scale analyses of the CMIP3 model projections for the twenty-first century indicate a strong, coherent decreased precipitation response over Central America and the Intra-America Seas region. We explore this regional response and examine the models’ skill in representing present-day climate over this region. For much of Central America, the annual cycle of precipitation is characterized by a rainy season that extends from May to October with a period of reduced precipitation in July and August called the mid-summer drought. A comparison of the climate of the twentieth century simulations (20c3m) with observations over the period 1961–1990 shows that nearly all models underestimate precipitation over Central America, due in part to an underestimation of sea surface temperatures over the tropical North Atlantic and an excessively smooth representation of regional topographical features. However, many of the models capture the mid-summer drought. Differences between the A1B scenario (2061–2090) and 20c3m (1961–1990) simulations show decreased precipitation in the future climate scenario, mostly in June and July, just before and during the onset of the mid-summer drought. We thus hypothesize that the simulated twenty-first century drying over Central America represents an early onset and intensification of the mid-summer drought. An analysis of circulation changes indicates that the westward expansion and intensification of the North Atlantic subtropical high associated with the mid-summer drought occurs earlier in the A1B simulations, along with stronger low-level easterlies. The eastern Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone is also located further southward in the scenario simulations. There are some indications that these changes could be forced by ENSO-like warming of the tropical eastern Pacific and increased land–ocean heating contrasts over the North American continent.     

Upper-air wave trains over the Pacific Ocean and wintertime cold surges in tropical-subtropical South America leading to Freezes in Southern and Southeastern Brazil

Summary ?An examination is made of the relationships between circulation and convection over South America as related to strong cooling in southern and southeastern Brazil during austral wintertime. Correlations between sub monthly (2–30 days) near-surface air temperature in southeastern Brazil reveal the preferred path of a quasi-stationary Rossby wave impinging on to the region from mid-latitudes and emanating from the tropical western Pacific. The large amplitude upper-level trough in middle latitudes, which extends into the tropics, has been pointed out as one of the major features of the cold situation. These waves embedded in westerly flow are an example of wintertime tropical-extratropical interactions leading to cooling in southeastern South America. This is suggested by the results from the observational and baroclinic-modeling studies presented here. However, in addition to the right synoptic situation associated with this intermediate modulation, local controls are important on determining the degree of cooling and the occurrence of freezes. Received August 25, 2000; revised September 1, 2001; accepted December 1, 2001     

Transient simulations,empirical reconstructions and forcing mechanisms for the Mid-holocene hydrological climate in southern Patagonia

This study investigates the atmospheric circulation in transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (GCM) for the mid-Holocene (MH) period 7–4.5 ka BP driven with combinations of orbital, solar and greenhouse gas forcings. The focus is on southern South America. Statistical downscaling models are derived from observational data and applied to the simulations to estimate precipitation in south-eastern Patagonia during the MH. These estimates are compared with lake level estimates for Laguna Potrok Aike (LPA) from sediments. Relative to pre-industrial conditions (i.e. 1550–1850), which show extraordinarily high lake levels, the proxy-based reconstructed lake levels during the MH are lower. The downscaled simulated circulation differences indicate higher LPA precipitation during the MH from March to August, higher annual means, and reduced precipitation from September to February. Thus the reconstructed lower LPA lake levels can not be explained solely by the simulated precipitation changes. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed. Based on proxy data from southern South America hypotheses have also been proposed on the latitudinal position of the southern hemispheric westerlies (SHWs). In agreement with some of these hypotheses our simulations show an increased seasonal cycle of the latitudinal position of the SHWs during the MH, which can be explained by the orbital forcing. The simulations also show stronger SHWs over southern Patagonia during austral summer and weaker SHWs during winter. The downscaling model associates weaker SHWs with increased precipitation in the LPA region. However, this relationship is only moderate, and therefore the downscaling model does not support the assumption of a strong link between mean SHWs and precipitation over south-eastern Patagonia, which is the basis of many proxy-based hypotheses about the SHWs.     

Agricultural drought in a future climate: results from 15 global climate models participating in the IPCC 4th assessment

This study examines the impact of greenhouse gas warming on soil moisture based on predictions of 15 global climate models by comparing the after-stabilization climate in the SRESA1b experiment with the pre-industrial control climate. The models are consistent in predicting summer dryness and winter wetness in only part of the northern middle and high latitudes. Slightly over half of the models predict year-round wetness in central Eurasia and/or year-round dryness in Siberia and mid-latitude Northeast Asia. One explanation is offered that relates such lack of seasonality to the carryover effect of soil moisture storage from season to season. In the tropics and subtropics, a decrease of soil moisture is the dominant response. The models are especially consistent in predicting drier soil over the southwest North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, Australia, and the South Africa in all seasons, and over much of the Amazon and West Africa in the June–July–August (JJA) season and the Asian monsoon region in the December–January–February (DJF) season. Since the only major areas of future wetness predicted with a high level of model consistency are part of the northern middle and high latitudes during the non-growing season, it is suggested that greenhouse gas warming will cause a worldwide agricultural drought. Over regions where there is considerable consistency among the analyzed models in predicting the sign of soil moisture changes, there is a wide range of magnitudes of the soil moisture response, indicating a high degree of model dependency in terrestrial hydrological sensitivity. A major part of the inter-model differences in the sensitivity of soil moisture response are attributable to differences in land surface parameterization.     

Influence of the South Atlantic convergence zone and SouthAtlantic Sea surface temperature on interannual summerrainfall variability in Southeastern South America

Summary  In subtropical Argentina, Paraguay and southern Brazil, precipitation is most abundant during summer but its interannual variability is large. At this time a zone of low-level convergence, upper-level divergence, and intense convection is developed to the north of this area. This feature is known as the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and seems to be related to the interannual variability of summer rainfall to its south. The aim of this work is to document this relationship. Reduced (increased) precipitation in southern Brazil, most of Uruguay and northeastern Argentina is associated with a strong (weak) SACZ and a northward (southward) displacement of it, while increased (reduced) rainfall occurs further south in subtropical Argentina. Also, warm (cold) SST in the region 20° S–40° S and west of 30° W is likely accompanied by a southward (northward) shift of the SACZ. Aside of this relation with the SACZ that affect on the precipitation field of Southeastern South America, the proximate Atlantic Ocean SST seems to force the precipitation over this region by other mechanisms as well. The result of this additional SST forcing is to enhance the signal of the SACZ in northeastern Argentina, Uruguay and southern Brazil and to oppose the SACZ effect in southern subtropical Argentina. Received July 24, 1999 Revised July 5, 2000     

Hydroclimatic trends during 1950–2018 over global land

Global hydroclimatic changes from 1950 to 2018 are analyzed using updated data of land precipitation, streamflow, and an improved form of the Palmer Drought Severity Index. The historical changes are then compared with climate model-simulated response to external forcing to determine how much of the recent change is forced response. It is found that precipitation has increased from 1950 to 2018 over mid-high latitude Eurasia, most North America, Southeast South America, and Northwest Australia, while it has decreased over most Africa, eastern Australia, the Mediterranean region, the Middle East, and parts of East Asia, central South America, and the Pacific coasts of Canada. Streamflow records largely confirm these precipitation changes. The wetting trend over Northwest Australia and Southeast South America is most pronounced in austral summer while the drying over Africa and wetting trend over mid-high latitude Eurasia are seen in all seasons. Coupled with the drying caused by rising surface temperatures, these precipitation changes have greatly increased the risk of drought over Africa, southern Europe, East Asia, eastern Australia, Northwest Canada, and southern Brazil. Global land precipitation and continental freshwater discharge show large interannual and inter-decadal variations, with negative anomalies during El Niño and following major volcanic eruptions in 1963, 1982, and 1991; whereas their decadal variations are correlated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) with IPO’s warm phase associated with low land precipitation and continental discharge. The IPO and Atlantic multidecadal variability also dominate multidecadal variations in land aridity, accounting for 90 % of the multidecadal variance. CMIP5 multi-model ensemble mean shows decreased precipitation and runoff and increased risk of drought during 1950–2018 over Southwest North America, Central America, northern and central South America (including the Amazon), southern and West Africa, the Mediterranean region, and Southeast Asia; while the northern mid-high latitudes, Southeast South America, and Northwest Australia see increased precipitation and runoff. The consistent spatial patterns between the observed changes and the model-simulated response suggest that many of the observed drying and wetting trends since 1950 may have resulted at least partly from historical external forcing. However, the drying over Southeast Asia and wetting over Northwest Australia are absent in the 21st century projections.