On the future navigability of Arctic sea routes: High-resolution projections of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice

The rapid Arctic summer sea ice reduction in the last decade has lead to debates in the maritime industries on the possibility of an increase in cargo transportation in the region. Average sailing times on the North Sea Route along the Siberian Coast have fallen from 20 days in the 1990s to 11 days in 2012–2013, attributed to easing sea ice conditions along the Siberian coast. However, the economic risk of exploiting the Arctic shipping routes is substantial. Here a detailed high-resolution projection of ocean and sea ice to the end of the 21st century forced with the RCP8.5 IPCC emission scenario is used to examine navigability of the Arctic sea routes. In summer, opening of large areas of the Arctic Ocean previously covered by pack ice to the wind and surface waves leads to Arctic pack ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone. The emerging state of the Arctic Ocean features more fragmented thinner sea ice, stronger winds, ocean currents and waves. By the mid 21st century, summer season sailing times along the route via the North Pole are estimated to be 13–17 days, which could make this route as fast as the North Sea Route.     

Is the Northern Sea Route attractive to shipping companies? Some insights from recent ship traffic data

While the media vigorously propagates historic Northern Sea Route (NSR) transits and researchers demonstrate the viability of the NSR, current usage by the shipping industry has been neglected thus far. This study aims to analyse the current ship traffic at NSR using transit data and port call data. The results show that navigation season lasts for five months, and Arc4 and Arc5 vessels are used extensively. Some Asian countries are active participants in the transit activities. NSR seems to be more appealing to liquid, bulk and general cargo transportation. Currently, most activities are still domestic and destinational in nature. The paper provides real statistics that can add value to the viability analysis. It identifies key players of the transits, exhibits trade pattern at NSR, and presents facts that interest shipping companies.     

Arctic climate changes and possible conditions of Arctic navigation in the 21st century

Assessments of current and expected climatic changes in the Arctic Basin are obtained, including ice-cover characteristics influencing the duration of the navigation season on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) along Eurasia and the Northwest Passage (NWP) along North America. The ability of modern climate models to simulate the average duration of the navigation season and its changes over recent decades is estimated. The duration of the navigation season for the NSR and NWP in the 21st century is estimated using an ensemble of climate models. The assessments differ significantly for the NSR and NWP. Unlike the NSR, the NWP reveals no large changes in the navigation season in the first 30 years of the 21st century. From the multimodel simulations, the expected duration of the navigation period by the late 21st century will be approximately 3 to 6 months for the NSR and 2 to 4 months for the NWP under the moderate anthropogenic SRES-A1B scenario.     

Iceberg drifting and distribution in the Vilkitsky Strait studied by detailed satellite radar and optical images

This paper is devoted to the detection and identification of icebergs in the Russian Arctic Seas from the use of high- and medium-resolution radar and optical images from EROS-B, Radarsat-1, Radarsat-2, SPOT-4 and SPOT-5 Earth observation satellites. In July–September of 2011–2013, the SCANEX Research and Development Center, the Federal State Unitary Enterprise Atomflot, and other partner organizations provided operational satellite monitoring of icebergs in the Kara Sea and the Laptev Sea. More than 130 highly detailed optical and radar images were received and processed. The Vilkitsky Strait—one of the narrowest and most dangerous places within the Northern Sea Route—was chosen as an experimental polygon. As a result, iceberg location in the strait during the 2011–2013 navigation periods was analyzed, as were the iceberg size, area, drift direction, and height.     

黄海物理海洋学的主要特征

本文概述了黄海物理海洋学主要特征,其中包括温、盐结构,环流和潮汐、潮流。在第二部分中重点说明黄海某些突出的海洋现象。诸如:黄海冷水团及环流,黄海暖流,海洋锋及底层流,最后一部分讨论海区的营养盐输送机制。     

夏冬季北黄海水体浊度分布特征研究

应用2007年1月和7月国家908专项北黄海区块水体调查获取的浊度等资料,分析了夏季和冬季北黄海海域水体浊度的水平和垂向分布特征,初步阐述了夏、冬季北黄海水体浊度分布具有南北高,中间低的特征。无论是夏季还是冬季,山东半岛东北沿岸和辽东半岛东南沿岸为高浊度区,中部海域受北黄海冷水团的影响而维持低浊度。夏季,北黄海冷水团导致的水体层结效应产生了"水障"作用——悬浮物只能沿岸分布和输送;冬季,山东半岛东端外海的强海流切变锋阻碍了悬浮物的纬向输送。此外,研究还发现由于黄海冷水团和黄海暖流的作用,导致夏、冬季黄海中部的沉积动力环境有所差异。     

渤、黄海风生流场季节循环时空模态与变异

根据1978—2015年渤、黄海沿岸观测风应力场与二维非线性垂直平均风生流模式，以及旋转经验正交函数（REOF）、调和分析等方法，研究了渤、黄海月平均风生流速度势、流函数场季节循环时空模态与年际变异.渤、黄海月平均风生流速度势、流函数场主要有两种时空模态，季节周期分量是时空模态的主要分量.由于风应力场季节循环变异，渤海流函数场季节时空循环变异程度大于速度势场，速度势、流函数场第二模态是季节变异的主要分量，黄海速度势场季节时空循环变异程度大于流函数场，速度势场第二模态是季节变异的主要分量.由于月平均风应力场强度年际变化显著线性减弱，渤、黄海季节平均风生流场强度年际变化也显著减弱.渤、黄海暖流与冷水团季节生消是风生流水平环流与垂直对流对冷 暖水体输送与汇集共同作用的结果，渤、黄海春、夏季辐合上升环流延缓及减弱了浅层暖水向深层传播，是春、夏季冷水团与温跃层形成的重要动力因素，因此，速度势是研究渤、黄海风生流场十分重要的因素.冬季渤海中部、黄海东部反气旋型及辐散下沉环流与黄海中部气旋型环流、辐合上升环流是黄海暖流季节转换与强度的主要动力控制因素，夏季黄海东部气旋型环流、辐合上升环流与黄海中部反气旋型环流、辐散下沉环流是黄海冷水团季节转换与强度的主要动力控制因素.     

东海北部区域底层冷水团的形成及其季节变化

本文着重探讨东海北部底层冷水(北部冷水)的形成原因、基本特征和季节变化过程。指出北部冷水系冬季黄海沿岸水南下向东海输送低温水并与外海高盐水混合变性形成的。其位置随季节变化而有明显的移动规律,即先由西向东移,而后向北收缩。大体上可分为四个阶段:冷水舌离岸期,北部冷水半封闭期,北缩消亡期和更新期。文中分析了上述变化的原因,较详细地阐述了黄海沿岸水沿陆架下沉与黑潮次—中层混合水爬升的关系及其对北部冷水的影响。分析了北部冷水与黄海冷水团的关系。     

Nutrient distributions in the winter regime of the northern Irish Sea

Quasi-synoptic distributions of salinity and the concentrations of dissolved inorganic nutrients in the winter regime of the northern Irish Sea are presented. Salinity to nutrient regression analyses and the distributions of nutrient ratios show that the characteristics of Atlantic waters are variously modified during their northward passage through the Irish Sea. Inherently different chemical characteristics of the fresh water sources discharging into the Northern Irish Sea generate a conglomeration of water types in the area. Marine waters along the Irish coast are relatively enriched in silicon, while waters adjacent to the eastern coastal boundary are relatively enriched by anthropogenic nitrogen sources. Possible implications of the spatial dichotomy in nutrient status for the seasonal production cycle in the northern Irish Sea are considered.     

The Russian Arctic coastal zone management problems: past lessons and new realities

The growing attention to the development of coastal zone resources is notable not only for moderate and southern latitudes but also in the Arctic regions. In Russia this process has a history related to exploration of non-renewable resources and the long-term policy of moving labour forces to the Far North and East. The role of the Russian Arctic coastal zone in the national economy had been stimulated by active usage of the Northern Sea Route for 60 years as a mainstream Arctic transport line. Diversified human usage of all kinds of natural resources is getting more controversial. A deep revaluation of existing methods and management approaches is needed in accordance with the complexities of Russian social/economic and ecological factors in the Arctic. The modern challenge of transition towards sustainable development also needs to be reevaluated. The last decade has shown a real effort of all Arctic countries to expand cooperation in joint scientific multidisciplinary studies. The studies are aimed at elaboration of common views on Arctic development and protection of environment. Moreover, the Arctic shelf and coastal zone are getting a new arena of international investments for industrial projects and implementation due to recovery of huge deposits of oil and gas resources of sophisticated technologies. All this makes international scientific cooperation more of a reality.     

中国海域潮汐非调和常数的计算与分析

联合利用中国沿岸长期验潮站实测资料和全球海潮模型NAO.99b在中国海域的结果,进行潮汐非调和常数的计算.分别对渤海、黄海、东海和南海进行分析,结果表明,中国海域潮汐类型复杂,渤海、黄海、东海以半日潮性质为主,南海以日潮性质为主;渤海、南海平均大潮差多分布在0.42～2.09 m,平均小潮差分布在0.27～1.33 m,东海、黄海平均大潮差多分布在1.12～4.44 m,平均小潮差多分布在0.41～2.41 m;渤海、黄海平均大潮高潮位分布在0.48～1.77 m,东海在0.42～2.41 m,南海在0.21～1.35 m;渤海、东海以及南海北部浅海海域潮高日不等现象显著.     

Some numerical experiments of the dynamics of the wintertime circulation in the Northern Huanghai Sea and the Bohai Sea

Some numerical experiments have been developed to explain dynamically the mechanism of the formation of the wintertime circulation in the Northern Huanghai Sea and the Bohai Sea. From the results of the numerical experiments with Coriolis parameter having positive and negative values respectively, it is found that the current pattern characterized by flowing into the Bohai Sea in the northern part of the Bohai Straits and flowing out of the Bohai Sea in the southern part of the Bohai Straits is controlled basically by the bottom topography with "the deepness on the northern side and shallowness on the southern side'in the Bohai Straits, and is not related to Coriolis parameter having positive and negative values. It also shows that the Huanghai Warm Current regarded as the inllow condition passing through the in-ports at the water boundary of the numerical experiments only influences the region near the water boundary and the eastern region of the Northern Huanghai Sea. In addition, the mechanism of the     

秋季南黄海西部营养盐的分布及其与环流场的关系

重点分析和研究了秋季南黄海西部营养盐的分布状况和水文特征,并在此基础上探讨了营养盐分布及其运移规律与该海域环流场的关系.结果表明:长江冲淡水、苏北沿岸水以及鲁北沿岸水所引起的物质输入是导致南黄海西部近岸海域三个营养盐含量高值区形成的主要因素;由于跃层阻隔以及底层有机物的氧化分解,调查海域中部底层水体也存在较大面积的营养...     

基于高效统计模型预测9月北极航道沿线海冰范围

The rapid decrease in Arctic sea ice cover and thickness not only has a linkage with extreme weather in the midlatitudes but also brings more opportunities for Arctic shipping routes and polar resource exploration, both of which motivate us to further understand causes of sea-ice variations and to obtain more accurate estimates of seaice cover in the future. Here, a novel data-driven method, the causal effect networks algorithm, is applied to identify the direct precursors of September sea-ice extent covering the Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route at different lead times so that statistical models can be constructed for sea-ice prediction. The whole study area was also divided into two parts: the northern region covered by multiyear ice and the southern region covered by seasonal ice. The forecast models of September sea-ice extent in the whole study area(TSIE) and southern region(SSIE) at lead times of 1–4 months can explain over 65% and 79% of the variances, respectively,but the forecast skill of sea-ice extent in the northern region(NSIE) is limited at a lead time of 1 month. At lead times of 1–4 months, local sea-ice concentration and sea-ice thickness have a larger influence on September TSIE and SSIE than other teleconnection factors. When the lead time is more than 4 months, the surface meridional wind anomaly from northern Europe in the preceding autumn or early winter is dominant for September TSIE variations but is comparable to thermodynamic factors for NSIE and SSIE. We suggest that this study provides a complementary approach for predicting regional sea ice and is helpful in evaluating and improving climate models.     

Assessing the significance of the economic impact of Marine Conservation Zones in the Irish Sea upon the fisheries sector and regional economy in Northern Ireland

This paper highlights the tension between advocacy for ‘Blue growth’ in maritime policy and efforts to safeguard future economic growth via the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. In 2015, policy-makers withdrew three of four proposed Marine Conservation Zones (MCZs) in the Irish Sea from consideration for designation, due to concerns that they could significantly impact on the fisheries sector in Northern Ireland because they overlap with prawn fishing grounds in the Irish Sea. Although research has quantified the potential impact upon fishing vessels, none has quantified the impact upon the fisheries sector nor assessed the significance of this impact. Arguably, MCZ designations (or lack thereof) based on the ‘significance’ of an impact require robust underpinning evidence. This paper reports the findings of an Economic Impact Assessment, which has quantified the impact of a decline in landings upon the Northern Ireland fisheries sector and regional economy (data which is currently absent from the evidence base for the MCZ designation process in England). It finds that this will incur job losses in three fishing ports in Northern Ireland, but is unlikely to have a significant impact upon Northern Ireland's fisheries sector and regional economy in terms of jobs and Gross Value Added (GVA). In the worst case, the resulting economic impact is a decrease of £1.05–1.12 m/year GVA in Northern Ireland, which is 1.1% of the contribution of fishing and fish processing to the regional economy. Economic significance assessments, using this methodology, may be useful in supporting the evidence base underpinning MCZ designation and other aspects of marine planning.     

东海陆架环流季节变化的模拟与分析

在改进POM模式基础上,建立1个中国东部海域斜压准预报模式,利用全球海洋模式结果并结合实测资料以及高精度卫星遥感SST资料,进行了东海陆架海域温盐及环流年循环的数值模拟,并系统分析了东海陆架环流系统及其季节变化、各暖流的路径等广为关注的问题。模式结果表明：黑潮主轴主体沿陆架坡折走向,中段黑潮流幅由南至北增宽,流速变大,流核所达深度变浅。浙闽沿岸流是一典型的季风环流,台湾暖流终年表现出东、北两分支结构,其分支表现出明显的季节性变化特征。在东海东北部陆架海域,冬季黑潮以其分支形式向北入侵,夏季则主要以大陆边缘流的形式向北进入陆架。论文对各暖流的水源也进行了相应的分析。     

渤海海峡悬浮体分布、通量及其季节变化

渤海海峡是渤黄海物质交换的重要通道,同时也是黄河入海泥沙向黄海搬运的必经路径。本文以2006—2009年渤海海峡8个站位四个季节的悬浮体、CTD数据为基础,将标准层悬浮体浓度数据与浊度数据对比获得高垂直分辨率的悬浮体浓度数据,分析其季节变化特征,并结合日均风场驱动的高精度数值模型模拟的渤海海峡流场,计算了四个季节渤海海峡悬浮体通量。结果表明,北黄海冷水团的入侵和退缩是渤海海峡温盐及其季节变化的重要特征之一,四季节流场特征均为"北进南出";渤海海峡中上层悬浮体浓度分布为海峡南部浓度高、北部浓度低,夏季海峡北部下层北黄海冷水团控制海域悬浮体浓度高于周围水体。春季、夏季、秋季、冬季悬浮体浓度依次增高。观测期间渤海海峡悬浮体的年净通量约为251.63万吨,其中输往黄海方向的悬浮体通量约占黄河年平均输沙量的4.27%。     

A high-resolution numerical modeling study of the subtidal circulation in the northern South China Sea

A high-resolution, regional, numerical-model-based, real-time ocean prediction system for the northern South China Sea, called the Northern South China Sea Nowcast/Forecast System (NSCSNFS), has been used to investigate subtidal mesoscale flows during the time period of the Asian Seas International Acoustic Experiment (ASIAEX) field programs. The dynamics are dominated by three influences; 1) surface wind stress, 2) intrusions of the Kuroshio through Luzon Strait, and 3) the large-scale cyclonic gyre that occupies much of the northern South China Sea. Each component primarily drives currents in the upper ocean, so deep currents are rather weak. Wind stress is especially effective at forcing currents over the shallow China shelf. The Kuroshio intrusion tends to flow westward until it meets the northern edge of the large-scale cyclonic gyre. Together, these currents produce an intense, narrow jet directed northwest toward the continental slope, often in the region of the ASIAEX field programs. Upon reaching the slope, the current splits with part flowing northeastward along the slope and part flowing southwestward, producing large horizontal and vertical shears and making this region dynamically very complicated and difficult to simulate. The Kuroshio intrusion tends to be stronger (weaker) when the northeasterly winds are strong (weak) and the large-scale gyre is farther south (north), consistent with conclusions from previous model studies. At the northern boundary, the model produces a persistent northward flow through Taiwan Strait into the East China Sea. Data assimilation in the NSCSNFS model is shown to dampen the system, extracting energy and causing the entire system to spin down.     

Formation and transport of intermediate water masses in a model of the Pacific Ocean

A basin-wide ocean general circulation model of the Pacific Ocean was used to investigate how the interior restoration in the Okhotsk Sea and the isopycnal diffusion affect the circulation and intermediate water masses. Four numerical experiments were conducted, including a run with the same isopycnal and thickness diffusivity of 1.0×103 m2/s, a run employing the interior restoration of temperature and salinity in the Okhotsk Sea with a time scale of 3 months, a run that is the same as the first run except for the enhanced isopycnal mixing, and a final run with the combination of the restoration in the Okhotsk Sea and large isopycnal diffusivity. Simulated results show that the intermediate water masses reproduced in the first run are relatively weak. An increase in isopycnal diffusivity can improve the simulation of both Antarctic and North Pacific intermediate waters, mainly increasing the transport in the interior ocean, but inhibiting the outflow from the Okhotsk Sea. The interior restoration generates the reverse current from the observation in the Okhotsk Sea, whereas the simulation of the temperature and salinity is improved in the high latitude region of the Northern Hemisphere because of the reasonable source of the North Pacific Intermediate Water. A comparison of vertical profiles of temperature and salinity along 50°N between the simulation and observations demonstrates that the vertical mixing in the source region of intermediate water masses is very important.     

Parity and disparity between two Chama oysters: the reproductive biology of the Indo-Pacific C. pacifica Broderip,invasive to the Mediterranean Sea; and C. savignyi Lamy,indigenous to the Red Sea

The Indo-Pacific oyster Chama pacifica Broderip, 1835 (Mollusca, Bivalvia, Chamidae) is rarely found in the Northern Red Sea reefs of Eilat (Gulf of Aqaba), where it is outnumbered by its indigenous congener, Chama savignyi Lamy, 1921. The influx of Eritrean biota from the Red Sea into the Mediterranean Sea via the Suez Canal has led to the formation of massive Chama oyster beds along the Eastern Mediterranean shore. However, unlike the Northern Red Sea, the Eastern Mediterranean Chama beds are dominated by C. pacifica oysters, whereas C. savignyi is absent from this region. In an attempt to understand this difference in their respective distribution, the reproductive biology of both species was compared. Histological analysis of the male and female gonads, monitored monthly from March 2009 to August 2010 in both regions, revealed a similar reproductive cycle, comprising six stages: onset of gametogenesis, advanced gametogenesis, ripe, ready to spawn, spent and sexual rest. Female gonads demonstrated an additional, seventh stage – restoration, coinciding with inferred spawning of ripe gametes. Both species were found to be dioecious spawners, with a single, annual, temperature-dependent inferred spawning period. Chama pacifica was found to reproduce efficiently in maximal Mediterranean seawater temperatures not experienced by the Northern Red Sea Chama populations. This study demonstrates the high invasive potential of an oyster species despite its rarity in its source region.