Return period estimates of extreme sea level along the east coast of India from numerical simulations

Estimates of return periods of extreme sea level events along the coast are useful for impact assessment. In this study, a vertically integrated 2D model was developed for the simulation of storm surges in the Bay of Bengal. The bathymetry for the model was derived from an improved ETOPO-5 data set, which was prepared in our earlier work. The meteorological forcing for the model was obtained from the cyclone model of Holland using the data available for 136 low-pressure systems that occurred during 1974–2000 in the Bay of Bengal. The simulated total sea level and the surge component were obtained for each event. The simulated peak levels showed good agreement with the observations available at few stations. The annual maxima of sea levels, extracted from the simulations, were fitted with Gumbel distribution using r-largest annual maxima method to estimate the 5- and 50-year return periods of extreme events at 26 stations along the east coast of India. The return periods estimated from simulated sea levels showed good agreement with those obtained from observations. The 5- and 50-year return levels of total sea level along the east coast of India show a considerable increase from south to north, with the 50-year return total sea levels being as high as 6.9 and 8.7 m at stations along the north eastern coast such as Sagar Island and Chandipur, respectively. The high return levels are expected at these stations as the cyclones developed in the Bay of Bengal generally move north or north-west, producing extreme events in the northern part, and moreover, these stations are characterized by high tidal ranges. However, at some regions in the southern part such as Surya Lanka and Machilipatnam, though 50-year return levels of total sea level are not very high (2.98 and 2.97 m, respectively) because of the relatively lower tidal ranges, high return levels of surges (0.84 and 0.57 m, respectively) are found. In addition to the role of shallow depths (5.0 and 6.1 m, respectively) at the two stations, the high return levels of surges are attributed to the effect of geometrical configuration at Surya Lanka and width (100 km) and orientation of continental shelf at Machilipatnam.     

Salt Marsh Accretion and Storm Tide Variation: an Example from a Barrier Island in the North Sea

We reconstruct past accretion rates of a salt marsh on the island of Sylt, Germany, using measurements of the radioisotopes ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs, as well as historical aerial photographs. Results from three cores indicate accretion rates varying between 1 and 16 mm year⁻¹. Comparisons with tide gauge data show that high accretion rates during the 1980s and 1990s coincide with periods of increased storm activity. We identify a critical inundation height of 18 cm below which the strength of a storm seems to positively influence salt marsh accretion rates and above which the frequency of storms becomes the major factor. In addition to sea level rise, we conclude that in low marsh zones subject to higher inundation levels, mean storm strength is the major factor affecting marsh accretion, whereas in high marsh zones with lower inundation levels, it is storm frequency that impacts marsh accretion.     

Modelling December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami: a coastal study

December 2004 tsunami in the Indian Ocean region has been simulated using MIKE-21 HD model. The vertical displacement of the seabed is incorporated into the numerical simulation by using time-varying bathymetry data. In the open ocean, sea surface height from altimeter observation has been used to validate the model results. To the west of the rupture zone, the crest is observed to precede the trough of the tsunami waves while to the east, trough preceded the crest. The model performance along the coastal region has been validated using de-tided sea levels from tide gauge measurements at Tuticorin, Chennai, Vishakapattanam, and Paradip ports along the east coast of India. Unique coastal characteristics of the tsunami waves, wave height, and wave celerity are reasonably simulated by the numerical model. Spectral analysis of tide gauge observations and corresponding model results has been done, and the distribution of frequency peaks from the analysis of gauge observations and the model results is observed to have a reasonable comparison. Low-frequency waves, contributed from the coastally trapped edge waves, are found to dominate both the tide gauge observations and the model results. The subsequent increase in the tsunami wave height observed at Chennai, Vishakapattanam, and Paradip has been explained on the basis of coastally trapped edge waves. From the validation studies using altimeter data and tide gauge data, it is observed that the model can be used effectively to simulate the tsunami wave height in the offshore as well as in the coastal region with satisfying performance.     

Evaluation of coastal inundation hazard for present and future climates

Coastal inundation from hurricane storm surges causes catastrophic damage to lives and property, as evidenced by recent hurricanes including Katrina and Wilma in 2005 and Ike in 2008. Changes in hurricane activity and sea level due to a warming climate, together with growing coastal population, are expected to increase the potential for loss of property and lives. Current inundation hazard maps: Base Flood Elevation maps and Maximum of Maximums are computationally expensive to create in order to fully represent the hurricane climatology, and do not account for climate change. This paper evaluates the coastal inundation hazard in Southwest Florida for present and future climates, using a high resolution storm surge modeling system, CH3D-SSMS, and an optimal storm ensemble with multivariate interpolation, while accounting for climate change. Storm surges associated with the optimal storms are simulated with CH3D-SSMS and the results are used to obtain the response to any storm via interpolation, allowing accurate representation of the hurricane climatology and efficient generation of hazard maps. Incorporating the impact of anticipated climate change on hurricane and sea level, the inundation maps for future climate scenarios are made and affected people and property estimated. The future climate scenarios produce little change to coastal inundation, due likely to the reduction in hurricane frequency, except when extreme sea level rise is included. Calculated coastal inundation due to sea level rise without using a coastal surge model is also determined and shown to significantly overestimate the inundation due to neglect of land dissipation.     

Spatiotemporal variations of extreme sea levels around the South China Sea: assessing the influence of tropical cyclones,monsoons and major climate modes

With sea levels projected to rise as a result of climate change, it is imperative to understand not only long-term average trends, but also the spatial and temporal patterns of extreme sea level. In this study, we use a comprehensive set of 30 tide gauges spanning 1954–2014 to characterize the spatial and temporal variations of extreme sea level around the low-lying and densely populated margins of the South China Sea. We also explore the long-term evolution of extreme sea level by applying a dynamic linear model for the generalized extreme value distribution (DLM-GEV), which can be used for assessing the changes in extreme sea levels with time. Our results show that the sea-level maxima distributions range from ~?90 to 400 cm and occur seasonally across the South China Sea. In general, the sea-level maxima at northern tide gauges are approximately 25–30% higher than those in the south and are highest in summer as tropical cyclone-induced surges dominate the northern signal. In contrast, the smaller signal in the south is dominated by monsoonal winds in the winter. The trends of extreme high percentiles of sea-level values are broadly consistent with the changes in mean sea level. The DLM-GEV model characterizes the interannual variability of extreme sea level, and hence, the 50-year return levels at most tide gauges. We find small but statistically significant correlations between extreme sea level and both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Our study provides new insight into the dynamic relationships between extreme sea level, mean sea level and the tidal cycle in the South China Sea, which can contribute to preparing for coastal risks at multi-decadal timescales.

     

利用T/P海面高度数据校验验潮站地面升降的初步研究

利用TOPEX/Poseidon卫星1993—2001年的海面测高资料提取了上海和江苏临近海域这9年间的绝对海面变化信息，并与该区域6个验潮站的同时段潮位记录数据进行了对比分析。研究结果表明根据T/P海面高度数据提取的月均海面变化曲线与同海区验潮站测得的同期海面变化过程具有相当好的一致性和同步性，但是根据潮位序列得出的9年平均海面上升速率值均大于根据卫星资料得出的上升速率值。由于卫星测高数据是严格建立在地心坐标基础上的，因此二者的差异在很大程度上应与验潮站所在地点的地面沉降有关。值得注意的是经过地面沉降校正的上海吴淞验潮站数据得出的9年平均海面上升速率值仅比卫星测高结果大0. 43 mm/a，而江苏省射阳河口至三条巷之间5个未经地面沉降校正的验潮站得出海面上升速率与卫星测高结果之间的差值在0.95～3.01 cm/a之间，并呈向北递增趋势。这一对比结果反映该岸段近期的地面沉降速率可能有自南向北增大的趋势，其量值有可能达到年厘米量级。     

Causes of the Unusual Coastal Flooding Generated by Typhoon Winnie on the West Coast of Korea

On 19 August 1997 Typhoon Winnie brought unusually strong and extensive coastal flooding from storm surges to the west coast of Korea, which was farenough from the typhoon's center to lack significant local wind and pressure forcing.Sea levels at some tidal stations broke 36-year records and resulted in property damages of $18,000,000. This study investigated the causes of the unusual high sea levels by using an Astronomical-Meteorological Index (AMI) and a coupled ocean wave-circulation model developed by the present authors. The AMI analysis and the numerical simulation of the surge event showed that the major cause of the high sea levels was not the standard inverse barometric effect supplemented by water piling up along the coast by the wind field of the typhoon as is usual for a typical storm surge, but rather an enhanced tidal forcing from the perigean spring tide and water transported into the Yellow Sea by the currents generated by the typhoon. The numerical results also indicated that the transported water accounted for about 50% of the increased sea levels. Another cause for the coastal flooding was the resonance coupling of the Yellow Sea (with a natural normal mode period of 37.8 h) and the predominant period of the surge (36.5 h).     

Records of palaeo‐sea level and eruption duration in a coastal tuff ring,Jeju Island,Korea

Phreatomagmatic volcanoes and their sedimentary products can preserve high‐resolution records of earth surface processes because of their high deposition rate. Songaksan, Jeju Island, Korea, is a phreatomagmatic volcano, which erupted c. 3.7 ka BP in a coastal setting. Its tuff ring preserves a record of intertidal to supratidal facies transition in the basal part, which reveals the position of palaeo‐high‐tide level for at least 13 high‐tide events, and a record of a storm‐surge event in the middle part of the tuff ring, which lasted approximately three tidal cycles. Based on these features, the phreatomagmatic eruption of Songaksan is estimated to have taken place over a month. The sea level at the time was almost identical to that at present. This study shows that coastal phreatomagmatic volcanoes can preserve high‐resolution records of eruption duration and palaeo‐sea level, and can provide accurately levelled and dated data points to the Quaternary sea‐level curve.     

Modeling the impact of land reclamation on storm surges in Bohai Sea,China

A nested model for the simulation of tides and storm surges in the Bohai Sea, China, has been developed based on the three-dimensional finite-volume coastal ocean model. The larger domain covers the entire Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea with a horizontal resolution of ~10 km, and the smaller domain focuses on the Bohai Sea with a fine resolution up to ~300 m. For the four representative storm surges caused by extratropical storms and typhoons, the simulated surge heights are in good agreement with observations at coastal tide gauges. A series of sensitivity experiments are carried out to assess the influence of coastline change due to land reclamation in recent decades on water levels during storm surges. Simulation results suggest that changes in coastline cause changes in the amplitude and phase of the tidal elevation, and fluctuations of surge height after the peak stage of the storm surges. Hence, for the assessment of the influence of coastline changes on the total water level during storm surges, the amplitudes and phases of both the tidal and surge heights need to be taken into account. For the three major ports in the Bohai Bay, model results suggest that land reclamation has created a coastline structure that favors increasing the maximum water level by 0.1–0.2 m. Considering that during the storm surges the total water level is close to or even exceeds the warning level for these ports, further increasing the maximum water level by 0.1–0.2 m has the potential to cause severe damages and losses in these ports.

     

Impact of Sea-level Rise and Storm Surges on a Coastal Community

A technique to evaluate the risk of storm tides (the combination of a storm surge and tide) under present and enhanced greenhouse conditions has been applied to Cairns on the north-eastern Australian coast. The technique combines a statistical model for cyclone occurrence with a state-of-the-art storm surge inundation model and involves the random generation of a large number of storm tide simulations. The set of simulations constitutes a synthetic record of extreme sea-level events that can be analysed to produce storm tide return periods. The use of a dynamic storm surge model with overland flooding capability means that the spatial extent of flooding is also implicitly modelled. The technique has the advantage that it can readily be modified to include projected changes to cyclone behaviour due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Sea-level heights in the current climate for return periods of 50, 100, 500 and 1000 years have been determined to be 2.0 m, 2.3 m, 3.0 m and 3.4 m respectively. In an enhanced greenhouse climate (around 2050), projected increases in cyclone intensity and mean sea-level see these heights increase to 2.4 m, 2.8 m, 3.8 m and 4.2 m respectively. The average area inundated by events with a return period greater than 100 years is found to more than double under enhanced greenhouse conditions.     

A modeling study of coastal inundation induced by storm surge,sea-level rise,and subsidence in the Gulf of Mexico

The northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) are highly vulnerable to the direct threats of climate change, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, and such risks are exacerbated by land subsidence and global sea-level rise. This paper presents an application of a coastal storm surge model to study the coastal inundation process induced by tide and storm surge, and its response to the effects of land subsidence and sea-level rise in the northern Gulf coast. The unstructured-grid finite-volume coastal ocean model was used to simulate tides and hurricane-induced storm surges in the GoM. Simulated distributions of co-amplitude and co-phase lines for semi-diurnal and diurnal tides are in good agreement with previous modeling studies. The storm surges induced by four historical hurricanes (Rita, Katrina, Ivan, and Dolly) were simulated and compared to observed water levels at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tide stations. Effects of coastal subsidence and future global sea-level rise on coastal inundation in the Louisiana coast were evaluated using a “change of inundation depth” parameter through sensitivity simulations that were based on a projected future subsidence scenario and 1-m global sea-level rise by the end of the century. Model results suggested that hurricane-induced storm surge height and coastal inundation could be exacerbated by future global sea-level rise and subsidence, and that responses of storm surge and coastal inundation to the effects of sea-level rise and subsidence are highly nonlinear and vary on temporal and spatial scales.     

Adapting to climate change: a comparison of two strategies for dike heightening

In the Netherlands the current dike design policy is to design flood defence structures corresponding to an agreed flooding probability with an extra safety board of at least 0.5 m. For river dikes a return period of 1,250 years is used to determine the design water levels. A problem with this strategy is that it builds on assumptions with regard to the intrinsically uncertain probability distributions for the peak discharges. The uncertainty is considerable and due to (1) the measuring records that are limited to about 100 years and (2) the changing natural variability as a result of climate change. Although the probability distributions are regularly updated based on new discharge data the nature of the statistics is such that a change in the natural variability of the peak discharge affects the probability distribution only long after the actual change has happened. Here we compare the performance of the probabilistic dike design strategy with the older strategy, referred to as the ‘self-learning dike’. The basic principle of the latter strategy is that the dike height is kept at a level equal to the highest recorded water level plus a certain safety margin. The two flood prevention strategies are compared on the basis of the flooding safety over a 100-year period. The Rhine gauge station at Lobith serves as case study. The results indicate that the self-learning dike performs better than the probabilistic design in terms of safety and costs, both under current and climate change conditions.     

Changes in North Sea storm surge conditions for four transient future climate realizations

Storm surges in the North Sea are one of the threats for coastal infrastructure and human safety. Under an anthropogenic climate change, the threat of extreme storm surges may be enlarged due to changes in the wind climate. Possible future storm surge climates based on transient simulations (1961–2100) are investigated with a hydrodynamical model for the North Sea. The climate change scenarios are based on regionalized meteorological conditions with the regional climate model CCLM which is forced by AR4 climate simulations with the general circulation model ECHAM5/MPIOM under two IPCC emission scenarios (SRES A1B and B1) and two initial conditions. Possible sea level rise in the North Sea is not taken into account. The analysis of future wind-induced changes of the water levels is focused on extreme values. Special emphasis is given to the southeastern North Sea (German Bight). Comparing the 30-year averages of the annual 99 percentiles of the wind-induced water levels between the four climate realizations and the respective control climates, a small tendency toward an increase is inferred for all climate change realizations toward the end of the twenty-first century. Concerning the German Bight, the climate change signals are higher for the North Frisian coastal areas than for the East Frisian ones. This is consistent with an increase in frequency of strong westerly winds. Considering the whole time series (1961–2100) for selected areas, this tendency is superimposed with strong decadal fluctuations. It is found that uncertainties are related not only to the used models and emission scenarios but also to the initial conditions pointing to the internal natural variability.     

Geodetic observation crucial to sea level monitoring

The relative rate of rise of the sea levels measured by a tide gauge is made of a sea and a land component. The first is usually restricted to the global short-term effect of melting icecaps and expansion of water mass due to global temperature change. The second is often limited to the regional long-term effects of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). Sometimes, the regional subsidence, due to compaction and ground water withdrawal, is considered. Here we show as this assumption of regional subsidence fails to represent the relative sea level patterns of Sandy Hook, NJ, and The Battery, NY, as well as of Venezia Punta Della Salute, Venezia II, Trieste and Trieste II. The subsidence of the tide gauge instrument may only be addressed by the precise monitoring of the tide gauge vs. a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) antenna, even if the GNSS tracking is only recent and not yet very accurate. The relative sea level records are much more complicated than what is thought.     

河口海岸桥隧工程设计流速推算

跨海桥隧工程设计需要推算工程位置不同重现期设计流速,由于现场缺乏长期实测流速资料,设计流速推算存在很大困难。研究提出了采用不同重现期典型风暴潮过程推算河口海岸设计流速的数值模拟方法,对河口地区考虑洪水径流与风暴潮流的耦合。在依据澳门验潮站1925—2003年实测潮位资料分析珠江口海域风暴潮过程特征的基础上,结合潮位和潮差年极值频率分析结果构建了不同重现期典型风暴潮潮型。采用平面二维水动力数学模型模拟了不同重现期风暴潮和上游一般洪水组合条件下珠江口水域的流场,得出港珠澳大桥沿线各控制点处设计流速。     

Coarse‐sand beach ridges at Cowley Beach,north‐eastern Australia: Their formative processes and potential as records of tropical cyclone history

Storm surges generated by tropical cyclones have been considered a primary process for building coarse‐sand beach ridges along the north‐eastern Queensland coast, Australia. This interpretation has led to the development of palaeotempestology based on the beach ridges. To better identify the sedimentary processes responsible for these ridges, a high‐resolution chronostratigraphic analysis of a series of ridges was carried out at Cowley Beach, Queensland, a meso‐tidal beach system with a >3 m tide range. Optically stimulated luminescence ages indicate that 10 ridges accreted seaward over the last 2500 to 2700 years. The ridge crests sit +3·5 to 5·1 m above Australian Height Datum (ca mean sea‐level). A ground‐penetrating radar profile shows two distinct radar facies, both of which are dissected by truncation surfaces. Hummocky structures in the upper facies indicate that the nucleus of the beach ridge forms as a berm at +2·5 m Australian Height Datum, equivalent to the fair‐weather swash limit during high tide. The lower facies comprises a sequence of seaward‐dipping reflections. Beach progradation thus occurs via fair‐weather‐wave accretion of sand, with erosion by storm waves resulting in a sporadic sedimentary record. The ridge deposits above the fair‐weather swash limit are primarily composed of coarse and medium sands with pumice gravels and are largely emplaced during surge events. Inundation of the ridges is more likely to occur in relation to a cyclone passing during high tide. The ridges may also include an aeolian component as cyclonic winds can transport beach sand inland, especially during low tide, and some layers above +2·5 m Australian Height Datum are finer than aeolian ripples found on the backshore. Coarse‐sand ridges at Cowley Beach are thus products of fair‐weather swash and cyclone inundation modulated by tides. Knowledge of this composite depositional process can better inform the development of robust palaeoenvironmental reconstructions from the ridges.     

现代黄河三角洲滨海湿地生态水文环境脆弱性

受大气降水、黄河水位断流、风暴潮和人类工程活动等因素影响,现代黄河三角洲滨海湿地生态水文环境极其脆弱和敏感。本文运用地下水数值模拟方法,通过构建滨海湿地水文模型,以氯离子作为模拟因子,预测滨海湿地地下水趋势性变化。计算结果显示,湿地水位和盐度对湿地生长和发育起控制作用;黄河持续断流和强烈风暴潮对湿地水质影响明显;当风暴潮引起增水幅度超过正常潮高的2.4m,会造成沿海低地特别是北部未受防潮大坝保护的滨海湿地淹没。     

Impact of wind gusts on sea surface height in storm surge modelling, application to the North Sea

Storm surge models usually do not take into account the explicit effect of wind gusts on the sea surface height. However, as the wind speed enters quadratically into the shallow water equations, short-term fluctuations around the mean value do not average out. We investigate the impact of explicitly added gustiness on storm surge forecasts in the North Sea, using the WAQUA/DCSM model. The sensitivity of the model results to gustiness is tested with Monte Carlo simulations, and these are used to derive a parametrisation of the effect of gustiness on characteristics of storm surges. With the parametrisation and input from the ECMWF model archive, we run hindcasts for a few individual cases and also the 2007–2008 winter storm season. Although the explicit inclusion of gustiness increases the surge levels, it does not help to explain, and hence reduce, the errors in the model results. Moreover, the errors made by ignoring gustiness are small compared to other errors. We conclude that, at present, there is no need to include gustiness explicitly in storm surge calculations for the North Sea.     

Characteristics of sea-cliff erosion induced by a strong winter storm in the eastern Mediterranean

Changes in sea-cliff morphologies along the 30-km-long Sharon Escarpment segment of Israel's weakly cemented Mediterranean eolianite cliff line were analyzed to gain quantitative insights into erosion characteristics associated with a high-energy winter storm (10–20 year return interval). Ground-based repeat LiDAR measurements at five sites along the cliff line captured perturbations of cliff stability by basal wave scouring during the storm, subsequent post-storm gravity-driven slope failures in the cliff face above, and return of the system to transient stability within several months. Post-storm erosion, which amounted to 70% of the total volume of cliff erosion documented, resulted in dramatic local effects of up to 8 m of cliff-top retreat. And yet, at the larger scale of the 30-km cliff line examined, erosion during the storm and the year that followed affected less than 4% of the cliff length and does not appear to be above the average cliff-length annual erosion implied by previously published decadal-scale retreat rates along this sea cliff. Our results do not support a direct association between strong storm events and elevated erosion and retreat at the cliff-line scale.     

Sea-level change during the Holocene in Sardinia and in the northeastern Adriatic (central Mediterranean Sea) from archaeological and geomorphological data

We provide new data on relative sea-level change from the late Holocene for two locations in the central Mediterranean: Sardinia and NE Adriatico. They are based on precise measures of submerged archaeological and tide notch markers that are good indicators of past sea-level elevation. Twelve submerged archaeological sites were studied: six, aged between 2.5 and 1.6 ka BP, located along the Sardinia coast, and a further six, dated ∼2.0 ka BP, located along the NE Adriatic coast (Italy, Slovenia and Croatia). For Sardinia, we also use beach rock and core data that can be related to Holocene sea level. The elevations of selected significant archaeological markers were measured with respect to the present sea level, applying corrections for tide and atmospheric pressure values at the time of surveys. The interpretation of the functional heights related to sea level at the time of their construction provides data on the relative changes between land and sea; these data are compared with predictions derived from a new glacio–hydro-isostatic model associated with the Last Glacial cycle. Sardinia is tectonically relatively stable and we use the sea-level data from this island to calibrate our models for eustatic and glacio–hydro-isostatic change. The results are consistent with those from another tectonically stable site, the Versilia Plain of Italy. The northeast Adriatic (Italy, Slovenia and Croatia) is an area of subsidence and we use the calibrated model results to separate out the isostatic from the tectonic contributions. This indicates that the Adriatic coast from the Gulf of Trieste to the southern end of Istria has tectonically subsided by ∼1.5 m since Roman times.