Nino海区SSTA短期气候预测模型试验

采用奇异谱分析（ＳＳＡ）与自回归（ＡＲ）预测模型相结合的方案,对Ｎｉｎｏ海区平均ＳＳＴ逐月距平序列作自适应滤波意义下的超前预报。结果表明,对１９９７－１９９８年这次强ＥＮＳＯ事件的超前预报十分有效;利用相应的历史样本作三次强ＥＮＳＯ事件的回溯预报试验,发现均有较高可信度。可见,该方案预报技巧稳定,独立样本试验和实际预报试验都有很高的准确率。将ＳＳＡ－ＡＲ方案进一步完善,可望作为ＥＮＳＯ业务预报的有     

SHORT-TERM CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS CAUSE AND CLIMATE PREDICTION IN CHINA

ＳＨＯＲＴ－ＴＥＲＭＣＬＩＭＡＴＥＣＨＡＮＧＥＡＮＤＩＴＳＣＡＵＳＥＡＮＤＣＬＩＭＡＴＥＰＲＥＤＩＣＴＩＯＮＩＮＣＨＩＮＡ￥ＷｅｉＦｅｎｇｙｉｎｇ（魏凤英）（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＳｙｎｏｐｔｉｃａｎｄＤｙｎａｍｉｃＭｅｔｅｏｒｏｌｏｇｙ．）Ｂｅｉｊ...     

THE 2－D NUMERICAL STUDY ON THE PRINCIPLES OF RAIN－ENHANCEMENT AND HAIL－SUPPRESSIONIN CONVECTIVE CLOUDS

ＴＨＥ２－ＤＮＵＭＥＲＩＣＡＬＳＴＵＤＹＯＮＴＨＥＰＲＩＮＣＩＰＬＥＳＯＦＲＡＩＮ－ＥＮＨＡＮＣＥＭＥＮＴＡＮＤＨＡＩＬ－ＳＵＰＰＲＥＳＳＩＯＮＩＮＣＯＮＶＥＣＴＩＶＥＣＬＯＵＤＳＭａｏＹｕｈｕａ（毛玉华）ａｎｄＨｕＺｈｉｊｉｎ（胡志晋）ＴＨＥ２－Ｄ...     

NINO区SST与SOI的耦合振荡信号及其预测试验

应用奇异交叉谱（ＳＣＳＡ）分析方法,提取Ｎｉｎｏ 海区各区的平均海温（ＳＳＴ）和南方涛动指数（ＳＯＩ）之间的耦合振荡信号,由此描述其年际和年代际的时变特征。基于ＳＣＳＡ,重建耦合振荡分量序列（ＲＣＣＳ）,并与回归分析相结合,对Ｎｉｎｏ 各海区平均的ＳＳＴ月际序列作短期气候预测试验。结果表明,各海区ＳＳＴ与ＳＯＩ的显著耦合振荡周期各有特色,其年际或１０ 年际变化不尽相同,从而构成了ＥＮＳＯ信号在时空演变型态上的复杂性。ＳＣＳＡ基础上的回归预报模型的预报技巧绝大部分优于ＳＳＡ－ＡＲ预报模型,实际预报试验证明效果优良     

PROGRESSES OF THE STUDY ON IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN CHINA

ＰＲＯＧＲＥＳＳＥＳＯＦＴＨＥＳＴＵＤＹＯＮＩＭＰＡＣＴＳＯＦＣＬＩＭＡＴＥＣＨＡＮＧＥＯＮＡＧＲＩＣＵＬＴＵＲＡＬＰＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＩＮＣＨＩＮＡ￥ＷａｎｇＦｕｔａｎｇ（王馥棠）ＰＲＯＧＲＥＳＳＥＳＯＦＴＨＥＳＴＵＤＹＯＮＩＭＰＡＣＴＳＯＦＣＬＩ...     

A LABORATORY TEST FACILITY FOR SOLARRADIATIONINSTRUMENTSANDITSAPPLICATIONS

ＡＬＡＢＯＲＡＴＯＲＹＴＥＳＴＦＡＣＩＬＩＴＹＦＯＲＳＯＬＡＲＲＡＤＩＡＴＩＯＮＩＮＳＴＲＵＭＥＮＴＳＡＮＤＩＴＳＡＰＰＬＩＣＡＴＩＯＮＳ￥ＬｕＷｅｎｈｕａ（吕文华）ａｎｄＭｏＹｕｅｑｉｎ（莫月琴）ＡＬＡＢＯＲＡＴＯＲＹＴＥＳＴＦＡＣＩＬＩＴＹＦＯＲ...     

用于ENSO预报的计算机模式

用于ＥＮＳＯ预报的计算机模式ＤａｋｅＣｈｅｎ（美国哥伦比亚大学）ＥＮＳＯ（厄尔尼诺／南方涛动）现象是全球气候中最大的年际变动。由于ＥＮＳＯ对区域和全球气候及经济都有重大影响，因此近年来已引起了人们广泛的关注。为期１０年的ＴＯＧＡ（热带海洋全球大气）计...     

IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN EASTERN AREAS OF CHINA

ＩＭＰＬＩＣＡＴＩＯＮＯＦＣＬＩＭＡＴＥＣＨＡＮＧＥＦＯＲＡＧＲＩＣＵＬＴＵＲＡＬＰＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＩＮＥＡＳＴＥＲＮＡＲＥＡＳＯＦＣＨＩＮＡＷａｎｇＦｕｔａｎｇ（王馥棠）ＩＭＰＬＩＣＡＴＩＯＮＯＦＣＬＩＭＡＴＥＣＨＡＮＧＥＦＯＲＡＧＲＩＣＵＬＴＵ...     

东亚冬季风强度异常与夏季500hPa环流及我国气候异常的关系

利用一个耦合海气模式，用数值试验方法分析了１９８２／１９８３ＥＮＳＯ期间的暖池和赤道事带的相互使用对大气表面流场和散度的影响。结果指出，ＥＮＳＯ高峰期和成熟期ＳＰＣＺ比ＩＴＣＺ更重要；ＥＮＳＯ的形成初期和衰减期ＳＰＣＺ和ＩＴＣＺ同样重要。     

TYPHOON:SCIENTIFIC/OPERATIONAL EXPERIMENTS AND DYNAMIC THEORETICAL STUDY

ＴＹＰＨＯＯＮ：ＳＣＩＥＮＴＩＦＩＣ／ＯＰＥＲＡＴＩＯＮＡＬＥＸＰＥＲＩＭＥＮＴＳＡＮＤＤＹＮＡＭＩＣＴＨＥＯＲＥＴＩＣＡＬＳＴＵＤＹ￥ＣｈｅｎＬｉａｎｓｈｏｕ（陈联寿）ａｎｄＸｕＸｉａｎｇｄｅ（除祥德）ＴＹＰＨＯＯＮ：ＳＣＩＥＮＴＩＦＩＣ／ＯＰＥＲ...     

北京1951—2008年升温趋势和季节变化

采用均一化订正的北京南郊地面日平均气温资料,分析了北京地区1951—2008年气温变化趋势。结果表明,年平均最高和最低气温的升高呈明显的不对称性,其中年平均最低气温升高较为明显,升温趋势为0.46℃/10a。根据1951—2008年日平均气温计算北京春、夏、秋、冬四季的季节长度和起始日期,发现北京地区冬季最长,秋季最短;夏季在逐渐延长,冬季在逐渐缩短,夏、冬两季长度变化的线性速率分别为4.4d/10a和-4.7d/10a。春、夏两季逐渐提前,趋势分别为3.0d/10a和2.5d/10a;而秋、冬两季在逐渐推迟,趋势分别为2.0d/10a和1.7d/10a。将季节起始日期与年平均气温进行相关性分析发现,春、夏两季的起始时间与年平均气温存在显著负相关,而秋、冬两季起始时间与年平均气温存在显著正相关。     

Classifying knowledge on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in Europe for informing adaptation research and decision-making: A conceptual meta-analysis

Knowledge on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability is fragmented, because it is found in disparate case studies which use inconsistent terminology and focus on distinct aspects relevant to adaptation. While large-scale syntheses such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provide a high level overview and are useful for international decision-making, there is a need for systematic and flexible access to this research-based knowledge in order to aid future adaptation research and decision-making. Against this background, we present a ‘conceptual’ meta-analysis, a novel approach to meta-analyse studies on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in Europe. The meta-analysis results in a classification scheme for relating the diverse studies. This scheme consists of (i) a classification of studies according to the type of adaptation-relevant results they produce and (ii) a hierarchical classification of the regional and thematic context of studies. The implementation of this scheme, for example in the form of a database, overcomes some of the identified gaps of current adaptation knowledge representation. We furthermore present a quantitative analysis of the classified studies that exemplifies how the developed classification scheme can be applied to get a systematic and quantitative overview of the knowledge they contain. Thus, the conceptual meta-analysis and the classification scheme represent a first step towards a systematisation of knowledge on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability and may be seen as a useful complement to qualitative literature reviews.     

A PCSWMM/GIS-based water balance model for the Reesor Creek watershed

This paper presents the results of a study of a watershed experiencing the pressures of land-use change resulting from urban development. The study was undertaken to facilitate an understanding of the water balance of the watershed by developing and implementing watershed procedures that are to be addressed in a watershed plan. There were three components to the research: firstly, observation of the effects of spatially distributed rainfall measurements and their effect on modelling were assessed. Secondly, the model was then calibrated by observing how differing techniques can discretize both the landscape (e.g. land-use and soil type) and incoming precipitation. Finally, a modelling methodology was developed to integrate a Geographic Information System and a hydrologic model (e.g. Storm Water Management Model) in a water balance analysis on a watershed basis. Results show that, under certain conditions, kriging spatially distributed rainfall values can help predict rainfall at ungauged (virtual) sites. Discretization of a watershed was found to affect the differences between measured and generated runoff volumes; however, this can be refined with calibration. It was seen that a strong correlation between measured and predicted rainfall values did not always guarantee a strong relationship between measured and generated runoff Recommendations include the use of a longer time series of rainfall, streamflow and predicted rainfall to observe temporal variations, and the need to assess the differences in modelled rainfall values generated by various surface interpolation methods (e.g. Inverse Distance Weighting and other kriging options) currently available in GIS packages.     

海门一次F1级龙卷的多普勒天气雷达特征分析

用多普勒天气雷达、常规观测和地面加密观测资料对2011年7月13日发生在江苏南通海门市树勋镇的龙卷风过程进行了详细分析。得出:较长时间的不稳定层结的存在,较低的抬升凝结高度,较强的水平和垂直风切变以及地面干线的存在为龙卷风的发生发展提供很好的动力条件;底层冷空气的切入,较强的风切变易使单体发展更加旺盛。强回波中心高度和垂直积分液态含水量的下降,径向速度风场中气旋性涡旋的迅速发展是对龙卷风提前警戒的很好指标。龙卷风进行过程中,此系统为低位质心的对流系统,产生的天气是龙卷,伴随大风,与冰雹的高位质心对流系统有明显的区别。中气旋高度,最大切变高度的骤降,中气旋尺度的急剧收缩预示着龙卷的发生,为我们今后的龙卷风预警提供有利的参考。     

EFFECTS OF THREE KINDS OF PHYSICAL PROCESSES ON TYPHOON INTENSITY*

This paper designs three quasi-geostrophic barotropic models with a radial/horizontal grid length being 2 kin,one in the polar coordinates,one on a stationary typhoon circulation condition and another on a non-stationary typhoon circulation condition in the Cartesian coordinates,to investigate the effects of azimuthal and radial linear advections,and nonlinear advection on the inward propagation of mesoscale vorticity and the changes of typhoon intensity.Results show that the azimuthal linear advection may result in the formation of spiral vorticity bands;the radial linear advection in a certain parameter set is able to transfer vorticity inwards,leading to a slight enhancement of typhoon;the nonlinear advection of perturbation vorticity on a stationary typhoon circulation condition may transfer more vorticities inwards,thus resulting in a distinct enhancement of typhoon;and the nonlinear advection on a non-stationary typhoon circulation condition possesses duality,i.e.on the one hand,the advection increases the vorticity of inward propagation,thus favorable to the intensification of typhoon,and on the other hand,in the inward propagation process of vorticity the originally concentric and axisymmetric structure of typhoon basic flow is damaged,and a complex flow pattern forms,which in turn tends to weaken the circulation of typhoon.At last the paper discusses the possible applications of those results in typhoon intensity prediction.     

A political ecology of maladaptation: Insights from a Gramscian theory of the State

This article analyzes a political process in the aftermath of a disaster and explains why and how it led to maladaptation. Grounding Gramsci’s theory of the State on a case of post-disaster response to a fatal mudslide in the city of Sarno in Italy, this research argues that, under certain conditions, civil society and the ruling classes may coalesce to produce policies that are maladaptive. We unpack the mechanisms through which consent was reproduced in Sarno, and show how the claims of civil society were articulated and fused with the hegemonic goals of capital circulation and economic growth, reaffirming a view of government as only a provider of safety. A Gramscian treatment of the State as a process, and not as a thing, highlights that the main barrier to adaptation is not the lack of techno-managerial solutions. It is the lack of political struggle around the social reconfiguration of the logic and functions of the State.     

First-Order Chemistry in the Surface-Flux Layer

We have discussed the behavior of a non-conserved scalar in the stationary, horizontally homogeneous, neutral surface-flux layer and, on the basis of conventional second-order closure, derived analytic expressions for flux and for mean concentration of a gas, subjected to a first-order removal process. The analytic flux solution showed a clear deviation from the constant flux, characterizing a conserved scalar in the surface-flux layer. It decreases with height and is reduced by an order of magnitude of the surface flux at a height equal to about the typical mean distance a molecule can travel before destruction. The predicted mean concentration profile, however, shows only a small deviation from the logarithmic behavior of a conserved scalar. The solution is consistent with assuming a flux-gradient relationship with a turbulent diffusivity corrected by the Damköhler ratio, the ratio of a characteristic turbulent time scale and the scalar mean lifetime. We show that if we use only first-order closure and neglect the effect of the Damköhler ratio on the turbulent diffusivity we obtain another analytic solution for the profiles of the flux and the mean concentration which, from an experimental point of view, is indistinguishable from the first analytic solution. We have discussed two cases where the model should apply, namely NO which, by night, is irreversibly destroyed by interaction with mainly O₃ and the radioactive ²²⁰Rn. Only in the last case was it possible to find data to shed light on the validity of our predictions. The agreement seemed such that a falsification of our model was impossible. It is shown how the model can be used to predict the surface flux of ²²⁰Rn from measured concentration profiles.     

Micromixing modelling of concentration fluctuations in inhomogeneous turbulence in the convective boundary layer

The micromixing technique, widely used in engineering calculations of mixing and chemical reaction, is extended to atmospheric boundary-layer flows. In particular, a model based on the interaction-by-exchange-with-the-conditional-mean (IECM) micromixing approach is formulated to calculate concentration fluctuation statistics for a line source and a point source in inhomogeneous and non-Gaussian turbulence in the convective boundary layer. The mixing time scale is parameterised as a linear function of time with the intercept value determined by the source size at small times. Good agreement with laboratory data for the intensity of concentration fluctuations is obtained with a value of 0.9 for the coefficient of the linear term in the time-scale parameterisation for a line source, and a value of 0.6 for a point source. Calculation of higher-order moments of the concentration field for a line source shows that non-Gaussian effects persist into the vertically well-mixed region. The cumulative distribution function predicted by the model for a point source agrees reasonably well with laboratory data, especially in the far field. In the limit of zero mixing time scale, the model reduces to a meandering plume model, thus enabling the concentration variance to be partitioned into meandering and relative components. The meandering component is shown to be more persistent for a point source than for a line source.     

Single-Column Model Intercomparison for a Stably Stratified Atmospheric Boundary Layer

The parameterization of the stably stratified atmospheric boundary layer is a difficult issue, having a significant impact on medium-range weather forecasts and climate integrations. To pursue this further, a moderately stratified Arctic case is simulated by nineteen single-column turbulence schemes. Statistics from a large-eddy simulation intercomparison made for the same case by eleven different models are used as a guiding reference. The single-column parameterizations include research and operational schemes from major forecast and climate research centres. Results from first-order schemes, a large number of turbulence kinetic energy closures, and other models were used. There is a large spread in the results; in general, the operational schemes mix over a deeper layer than the research schemes, and the turbulence kinetic energy and other higher-order closures give results closer to the statistics obtained from the large-eddy simulations. The sensitivities of the schemes to the parameters of their turbulence closures are partially explored.