Magnitude scale for the Central American tsunamis

Based on the tsunami data in the Central American region, the regional characteristic of tsunami magnitude scales is discussed in relation to earthquake magnitudes during the period from 1900 to 1993. Tsunami magnitudes on the Imamura-Iida scale of the 1985 Mexico and 1992 Nicaragua tsunamis are determined to bem=2.5, judging from the tsunami height-distance diagram. The magnitude values of the Central American tsunamis are relatively small compared to earthquakes with similar size in other regions. However, there are a few large tsunamis generated by low-frequency earthquakes such as the 1992 Nicaragua earthquake. Inundation heights of these unusual tsunamis are about 10 times higher than those of normal tsunamis for the same earthquake magnitude (M _s =6.9–7.2). The Central American tsunamis having magnitudem>1 have been observed by the Japanese tide stations, but the effect of directivity toward Japan is very small compared to that of the South American tsunamis.     

EFFECT OF TSUNAMIS GENERATED IN THE MANILA TRENCH ON CHINA MAINLAND

Tsunami is one of the most devastating natural coastal disasters. Most of large tsunamis are generated by submarine earthquakes occurring in subduction zones. Tsunamis can also be triggered by volcano eruptions and large landslides. There are many records about "sea-overflow" in Chinese ancient books, which are not proved to be tsunamis. Tectonics and historical records analysis are import to forecast and prevention of tsunami. Consider the tectonic environment of the China sea, the possibility of huge damage caused by the offshore tsunami is very small. And the impact of the ocean tsunami on the Bohai sea, the Yellow sea, and the East China sea is also small. But in the South China Sea, the Manila subduction zone has been identified as a high hazardous tsunamigenic earthquake source region. No earthquake larger than M_W7.6 has been recorded in the past 100a in this region, suggesting a high probability for larger earthquakes in the future. If a tsunamigenic earthquake were to occur in this region in the near future, a tragedy with the magnitude similar to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami could repeat itself. In this paper, based on tectonics and historical records analysis, we have demonstrated that potential for a strong future earthquake along the Manila subduction zone is real. Using a numerical model, we have also shown that most countries in the South China Sea will be affected by the tsunamis generated by the future earthquake. For China, it implies that the maximum wave height over 4.0 meter on China mainland, especially the Pearl River Estuary. But the island, local relief maybe influence the maximum wave. But it takes nearly 3 hours to attack China mainland, if there is the operational tsunami warning system in place in this region, should be greatly reduced losses. And the simulated results are conformable to historical records. It indicates that the tsunami hazards from Manila trench to China mainland worthy of our attention and prevention.     

Twin Tsunamis Triggered by the 12 January 2010 Haiti Earthquake

On 12 January 2010, a magnitude M _w 7.0 earthquake occurred 25 km west–southwest of Haiti’s capital Port-au-Prince causing an estimated 316,000 fatalities, thereby exceeding any previous loss of life from a similar size earthquake. In addition, tsunami waves triggered by the earthquake caused at least three fatalities at Petit Paradis due to a complete lack of tsunami awareness. The International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST) was deployed within weeks of the event and covered the greater Bay of Port-au-Prince and more than 100 km of Hispaniola’s southern coastline. The collected survey data include more than 21 tsunami heights along with observations of coastal land level change. Maximum tsunami heights of 3 m have been measured for two independently triggered tsunamis.     

Review of the 2018 Palu Tsunami:Disaster Behavior and Reflections on Disaster Management

The 2018 Palu M_W7.5 earthquake and tsunami attracted geophysicists'' attention for its strike slip focal mechanism and magnitude. We inspected the details of this disaster and discussed its particularity and possible causations. The submarine landslide and special terrain conditions could have contributed to the unusual size of the tsunami. The early warning system and the post disaster response is also reviewed. Efficient social warnings and broadcast systems along with good maintenance is essential. We also found that enhancing publics scientific literacy is the most important way to reduce disaster damage and casualties. Moreover, social conditions and rebuilding difficulties post tsunami are related as reference resources for future disaster management strategies.     

The 1994 Shikotan earthquake tsunamis

The 1994 Shikotan earthquake was one of the greatest earthquakes in recent years with a magnitude ofM _s 8.0. A tsunami survey was conducted by Russian and U.S. geophysicists from October 16–30, 1994, less than two weeks after the earthquake. The survey results and a numerical hindcast simulation are reported. Tsunami focusing effect at locations supposedly sheltered by the island chain is discussed. Based on the obtained data, tsunamis which attacked Shikotan Island are characterized as long waves (the order of 10–20 min wave period) with a positive leading wave. Possible consequences of the positive leading wave form are discussed in relation to the observed minimal destruction of beach vegetation and relatively small transport of marine sediment onto the shore. The high-quality tide-gage record in Malokurilskaya Bay indicates the occurrence of a 53 cm subsidence at the site.     

Magnitude-geographical criterion for operational tsunami prognosis: Analysis of application in 1958–2009

Re-evaluation of magnitude-geographical criterion of tsunami prediction is one of the main directions of improvement of the tsunami warning service acting on the coast of the Russian Far East. The main directions of this work are a careful analysis of the tsunami warnings issued by the service during the period of its operation (since 1958), determining of reasons for false alarms and missed warnings, delineation of tsunamigenic areas threatening the Far East coast of Russia, optimal selection of magnitude thresholds for each tsunamigenic zone, evaluation of the expected ratio between real/missed/false warnings, determination of the degree of influence of other source parameters (focus depth, source mechanism), and evaluation of probability of occurrence for nonseismic tsunamis. The present paper considers the results of operations for prediction of tsunamis from submarine earthquakes that occurred in the Kuril-Kamchatka zone, Sea of Japan, and Sea of Okhotsk during the last 52 years.     

Tsunamis and tsunami warning: Recent progress and future prospects

Tsunamis are one of the most destructive disasters in the ocean.Large tsunamis are mostly generated by earthquakes,and they can propagate across the ocean without significantly losing energy.During the shoaling process in coastal areas,the wave amplitude increases dramatically,causing severe life loss and property damage.There have been frequent tsunamis since the 21 st century,drawing the attention of many countries on the study of tsunami mechanism and warning.Tsunami records also play an essential role in deriving earthquake rupture models in subduction zones.This paper reviews the recent progress and limitations of tsunami research,from the aspects of tsunami generation,propagation,inversion and warning.Potential tsunami warning strategies are discussed and future prospects on tsunami research are provided.     

Anatomy of Historical Tsunamis: Lessons Learned for Tsunami Warning

Tsunamis are high-impact disasters that can cause death and destruction locally within a few minutes of their occurrence and across oceans hours, even up to a day, afterward. Efforts to establish tsunami warning systems to protect life and property began in the Pacific after the 1946 Aleutian Islands tsunami caused casualties in Hawaii. Seismic and sea level data were used by a central control center to evaluate tsunamigenic potential and then issue alerts and warnings. The ensuing events of 1952, 1957, and 1960 tested the new system, which continued to expand and evolve from a United States system to an international system in 1965. The Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific (ITSU) steadily improved through the decades as more stations became available in real and near-real time through better communications technology and greater bandwidth. New analysis techniques, coupled with more data of higher quality, resulted in better detection, greater solution accuracy, and more reliable warnings, but limitations still exist in constraining the source and in accurately predicting propagation of the wave from source to shore. Tsunami event data collected over the last two decades through international tsunami science surveys have led to more realistic models for source generation and inundation, and within the warning centers, real-time tsunami wave forecasting will become a reality in the near future. The tsunami warning system is an international cooperative effort amongst countries supported by global and national monitoring networks and dedicated tsunami warning centers; the research community has contributed to the system by advancing and improving its analysis tools. Lessons learned from the earliest tsunamis provided the backbone for the present system, but despite 45 years of experience, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami reminded us that tsunamis strike and kill everywhere, not just in the Pacific. Today, a global intergovernmental tsunami warning system is coordinated under the United Nations. This paper reviews historical tsunamis, their warning activities, and their sea level records to highlight lessons learned with the focus on how these insights have helped to drive further development of tsunami warning systems and their tsunami warning centers. While the international systems do well for teletsunamis, faster detection, more accurate evaluations, and widespread timely alerts are still the goals, and challenges still remain to achieving early warning against the more frequent and destructive local tsunamis.     

Some Aspects of Energy Balance and Tsunami Generation by Earthquakes and Landslides

— Tsunamis are generated by displacement or motion of large volumes of water. While there are several documented cases of tsunami generation by volcanic eruptions and landslides, most observed tsunamis are attributed to earthquakes. Kinematic models of tsunami generation by earthquakes — where specified fault size and slip determine seafloor and sea-surface vertical motion — quantitatively explain far-field tsunami wave records. On the other hand, submarine landslides in subduction zones and other tectonic settings can generate large tsunamis that are hazardous along near-source coasts. Furthermore, the ongoing exploration of the oceans has found evidence for large paleo-landslides in many places, not just subduction zones. Thus, we want to know the relative contribution of faulting and landslides to tsunami generation. For earthquakes, only a small fraction of the minimum earthquake energy (less than 1% for typical parameter choices for shallow underthrusting earthquakes) can be converted into tsunami wave energy; yet, this is enough energy to generate terrible tsunamis. For submarine landslides, tsunami wave generation and landslide motion interact in a dynamic coupling. The dynamic problem of a 2-D translational slider block on a constant-angle slope can be solved using a Green's function approach for the wave transients. The key result is that the largest waves are generated when the ratio of initial water depth above the block to downslope vertical drop of the block H ₀ /W sin δ is less than 1. The conversion factor of gravitational energy into tsunami wave energy varies from 0% for a slow-velocity slide in deep water, to about 50% for a fast-velocity slide in shallow water and a motion abruptly truncated. To compare maximum tsunami wave amplitudes in the source region, great earthquakes produce amplitudes of a few meters at a wavelength fixed by the fault width of 100 km or so. For submarine landslides, tsunami wave heights — as measured by b, block height — are small for most of the parameter regime. However, for low initial dynamic friction and values of H ₀ /W sin δ less than 1, tsunami wave heights in the downslope and upslope directions reach b and b/4, respectively.Wavelengths of these large waves scale with block width. For significant submarine slides, the value of b can range from meters up to the kilometer scale. Thus, the extreme case of efficient tsunami generation by landslides produces dramatic hazards scenarios.     

Evaluating Tsunami Hazard in the Northwestern Indian Ocean

We evaluate here the tsunami hazard in the northwestern Indian Ocean. The maximum regional earthquake calculated from seismic hazard analysis, was used as the characteristic earthquake for our tsunami hazard assessment. This earthquake, with a moment magnitude of M _w 8.3 and a return period of about 1000 years, was moved along the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) and its possible tsunami wave height along various coasts was calculated via numerical simulation. Both seismic hazard analysis and numerical modeling of the tsunami were validated using historical observations of the Makran earthquake and tsunami of the 1945. Results showed that the possible tsunami may reach a maximum height of 9.6 m in the region. The distribution of tsunami wave height along various coasts is presented. We recommend the development of a tsunami warning system in the region, and emphasize the value of education as a measure to mitigate the death toll of a possible tsunami in this region.     

A Revised Evaluation of Tsunami Hazards along the Chinese Coast in View of the Tohoku-Oki Earthquake

Japan’s 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and the accompanying tsunami have reminded us of the potential tsunami hazards from the Manila and Ryukyu trenches to the South China and East China Seas. Statistics of historical seismic records from nearly the last 4 decades have shown that major earthquakes do not necessarily agree with the local Gutenberg-Richter relationship. The probability of a mega-earthquake may be higher than we have previously estimated. Furthermore, we noted that the percentages of tsunami-associated earthquakes are much higher in major events, and the earthquakes with magnitudes equal to or greater than 8.8 have all triggered tsunamis in the past approximately 100 years. We will emphasize the importance of a thorough study of possible tsunami scenarios for hazard mitigation. We focus on several hypothetical earthquake-induced tsunamis caused by M _w 8.8 events along the Manila and Ryukyu trenches. We carried out numerical simulations based on shallow-water equations (SWE) to predict the tsunami dynamics in the South China and East China Seas. By analyzing the computed results we found that the height of the potential surge in China’s coastal area caused by earthquake-induced tsunamis may reach a couple of meters high. Our preliminary results show that tsunamis generated in the Manila and Ryukyu trenches could pose a significant threat to Chinese coastal cities such as Shanghai, Hong Kong and Macao. However, we did not find the highest tsunami wave at Taiwan, partially because it lies right on the extension of an assumed fault line. Furthermore, we put forward a multi-scale model with higher resolution, which enabled us to investigate the edge waves diffracted around Taiwan Island with a closer view.     

Physical size of tsunamigenic earthquakes of the northwestern Pacific

The new scale M_t of tsunami magnitude is a reliable measure of the seismic moment of a tsunamigenic earthquake as well as the overall strength of a tsunami source. This M_t scale was originally defined by Abe (1979) in terms of maximum tsunami amplitudes at large distances from the source. A method is developed whereby it is possible to determine M_t at small distances on the basis of the regional tsunami data obtained at 30 tide stations in Japan. The relation between log H, maximum amplitude (m) and log Δ, a distance of not less than 100 km away from the source (km) is found to be linear, with a slope close to 1.0. Using three tsunamigenic earthquakes with known moment magnitudes M_w, for calibration, the relation, M_t = log H + log Δ + D, is obtained, where D is 5.80 for single-amplitude (crest or trough) data and 5.55 for double-amplitude (crest-to-trough) data. Using a number of tsunami amplitude data, M_t is assigned to 80 tsunamigenic earthquakes that occurred in the northwestern Pacific, mostly in Japan, during the period from 1894 to 1981. The M_t values are found to be essentially equivalent to M_w for 25 events with known M_w. The 1952 Kamchatka earthquake has the largest M_t, 9.0. Of all the 80 events listed, at least seven unusual earthquakes which generated disproportionately-large tsunamis for their surface-wave magnitude M_s are identified from the relation. From the viewpoint of tsunami hazard reduction, the present results provide a quantitative basis for predicting maximum tsunami amplitudes at a particular site.     

Correlating Precursory Declines in Groundwater Radon with Earthquake Magnitude

Both studies at the Antung hot spring in eastern Taiwan and at the Paihe spring in southern Taiwan confirm that groundwater radon can be a consistent tracer for strain changes in the crust preceding an earthquake when observed in a low‐porosity fractured aquifer surrounded by a ductile formation. Recurrent anomalous declines in groundwater radon were observed at the Antung D1 monitoring well in eastern Taiwan prior to the five earthquakes of magnitude (M_w): 6.8, 6.1, 5.9, 5.4, and 5.0 that occurred on December 10, 2003; April 1, 2006; April 15, 2006; February 17, 2008; and July 12, 2011, respectively. For earthquakes occurring on the longitudinal valley fault in eastern Taiwan, the observed radon minima decrease as the earthquake magnitude increases. The above correlation has been proven to be useful for early warning local large earthquakes. In southern Taiwan, radon anomalous declines prior to the 2010 M_w 6.3 Jiasian, 2012 M_w 5.9 Wutai, and 2012 M_L 5.4 Kaohsiung earthquakes were also recorded at the Paihe spring. For earthquakes occurring on different faults in southern Taiwan, the correlation between the observed radon minima and the earthquake magnitude is not yet possible.     

Tsunami and mechanism of great earthquakes

The relation between tsunamis and sea-bottom deformations associated with the Kurile Islands earthquake of 1969 and the Tokachi-Oki earthquake of 1968 is studied on the basis of a fairly complete set of seismological and tsunami data. The seismic results are included in the calculation of static crustal deformations. The calculated deformations are compared with the tsunami source area as obtained by the inverse refraction diagram, the first motion of tsunami waves, and the height of the sea-level disturbance at the source. It is found that such deformations as predicted by the seismic results can quantitatively explain the source parameters of tsunamis. These findings strongly favor the idea that tsunamis are generated by tectonic deformations rather than by large submarine landslides and slumps. This conclusion is supported by additional analyses for the 1964 Niigata, 1944 Tonankai, 1933 Sanriku earthquakes. For the 1946 Nankaido earthquake, the source deformation responsible for the tsunami generation is of much greater magnitude than that for seismic waves.     

Alaska Tsunami Warning Center's automatic and interactive computer processing system

The Alaska Tsunami Warning Center has the responsibility of providing timely tsunami warning services for Alaska and the west coasts of Canada and the United States. Recently, the ATWC implemented a new microcomputer system which is used for both automatic and interactive earthquake processing, and for disseminating critical information to the Tsunami Warning System recipients.Real-time seismic wave form data from 23 short-period and 9 long-period sites in Alaska, the lower 48 States, and Hawaii, are continually computer-monitored for the occurrence of an earthquake. Once detected from the short-period wave form data, pre- and post-earthquake data are displayed on a graphics terminal along with an indicator to identify the time of the onset of theP waves (P-picks). TheP-picks can easily be changed during or after data collection via a mouse. Magnitudes (M _b ,M _l ,M _B ,M _S ) are automatically computed from appropriate short- and long-period wave form data concurrently with the above processing. A second graphics terminal displays cycle-by-cycle long-period wave form data that was used to compute an earthquake'sM _B andM _S magnitudes.An earthquake's parametric data and other information are available and printed within tens of seconds after theP wave arrivals are recorded at the first 5 sites, then 7 sites, 9 sites, and a final parametric computation using all collected data. Three video display monitors are used for displaying the parameters, procedural aids, and a map showing the epicenter. Additionally, selected event parameters are immediately transmitted by VHF radio to alphanumeric beepers which are carried by standby duty personnel during those times that the Center is not manned.Using a dedicated video display terminal and printer, the interactive system can use data and parameters resulting from the automatic processes for concurrent parameter recomputations; perform additional computations; disseminate critical information; and generate procedural aids for duty geophysicists to facilitate an earthquake/tsunami investigation.     

Tsunami Hazard Posed to New Zealand by the Kermadec and Southern New Hebrides Subduction Margins: An Assessment Based on Plate Boundary Kinematics, Interseismic Coupling, and Historical Seismicity

We assess the tsunami hazard posed to New Zealand by the Kermadec and southern New Hebrides subduction margins. Neither of these subduction zones has produced tsunami large enough to cause significant damage in New Zealand over the past 150?years of well-recorded history. However, as this time frame is short compared to the recurrence interval for major tsunamigenic earthquakes on many of the Earth’s subduction zones, it should not be assumed that what has been observed so far is representative of the long term. For each of these two subduction zones we present plate kinematic and fault-locking results from block modelling of earthquake slip vector data and GPS velocities. The results are used to estimate the current rates of strain accumulation on the plate interfaces where large tsunamigenic earthquakes typically occur. We also review data on the larger historical earthquakes that have occurred on these margins, as well as the Global CMT catalogue of events since 1976. Using this information we have developed a set of scenarios for large earthquakes which have been used as initial conditions for the COMCOT tsunami code to estimate the subsequent tsunami propagation in the southwest Pacific, and from these the potential impact on New Zealand has been evaluated. Our results demonstrate that there is a significant threat posed to the Northland and Coromandel regions of New Zealand should a large earthquake (M _w ?8.5) occur on the southern or middle regions of the Kermadec Trench, and that a similarly large earthquake on the southern New Hebrides Trench has the potential to strongly impact on the far northern parts of New Zealand close to the southern end of the submarine Three Kings Ridge. We propose logic trees for the magnitude–frequency parameters of large earthquakes originating on each trench, which are intended to form the basis for future probabilistic studies.     

M TSU : Recovering Seismic Moments from Tsunameter Records

We define a new magnitude scale, M_TSU, allowing the quantification of the seismic moment M₀ of an earthquake based on recordings of its tsunami in the far field by ocean-bottom pressure sensors (``tsunameters') deployed in ocean basins, far from continental or island shores which are known to affect profoundly and in a nonlinear fashion the amplitude of the tsunami wave. The formula for M_TSU, M_TSU = log₁₀ M₀ − 20 = log₁₀ X (ω) + C_D^TSU + C_S^TSU + C₀, where X (ω) is the spectral amplitude of the tsunami, C_D^TSU a distance correction and C_S^TSU a source correction, is directly adapted from the mantle magnitude M_m introduced for seismic surface waves by Okal and Talandier. Like M_m, its corrections are fully justified theoretically based on the representation of a tsunami wave as a branch of the Earth's normal modes. Even the locking constant C₀, which may depend on the nature of the recording (surface amplitude of the tsunami or overpressure at the ocean floor) and its units, is predicted theoretically. M_TSU combines the power of a theoretically developed algorithm, with the robustness of a magnitude measurement that does not take into account such parameters as focal geometry and exact depth, which may not be available under operational conditions in the framework of tsunami warning. We verify the performance of the concept on simulations of the great 1946 Aleutian tsunami at two virtual gauges, and then apply the algorithm to 24 records of 7 tsunamis at DART tsunameters during the years 1994–2003. We find that M_TSU generally recovers the seismic moment M₀ within 0.2 logarithmic units, even under unfavorable conditions such as excessive focal depth and refraction of the tsunami wave around continental masses. Finally, we apply the algorithm to the JASON satellite trace obtained over the Bay of Bengal during the 2004 Sumatra tsunami, after transforming the trace into a time series through a simple ad hoc procedure. Results are surprisingly good, with most estimates of the moment being over 10²⁹ dyn-cm, and thus identifying the source as an exceptionally large earthquake.     

Introduction to “Tsunamis in the World Ocean: Past,Present, and Future. Volume II”

Fifteen papers are included in Volume 2 of a PAGEOPH topical issue Tsunamis in the World Ocean: Past, Present, and Future. These papers are briefly introduced. They are grouped into three categories: reports and studies of recent tsunamis, studies on tsunami statistics and application to tsunami warning, and modeling studies of tsunami runup and inundation. Most of the papers were presented at the 24th International Tsunami Symposium held 14–16 July 2009 in Novosibirsk, Russia, and reflect the current state of tsunami science.     

Tsunami Source of the 2010 Mentawai, Indonesia Earthquake Inferred from Tsunami Field Survey and Waveform Modeling

The 2010 Mentawai earthquake (magnitude 7.7) generated a destructive tsunami that caused more than 500 casualties in the Mentawai Islands, west of Sumatra, Indonesia. Seismological analyses indicate that this earthquake was an unusual “tsunami earthquake,” which produces much larger tsunamis than expected from the seismic magnitude. We carried out a field survey to measure tsunami heights and inundation distances, an inversion of tsunami waveforms to estimate the slip distribution on the fault, and inundation modeling to compare the measured and simulated tsunami heights. The measured tsunami heights at eight locations on the west coasts of North and South Pagai Island ranged from 2.5 to 9.3 m, but were mostly in the 4–7 m range. At three villages, the tsunami inundation extended more than 300 m. Interviews of local residents indicated that the earthquake ground shaking was less intense than during previous large earthquakes and did not cause any damage. Inversion of tsunami waveforms recorded at nine coastal tide gauges, a nearby GPS buoy, and a DART station indicated a large slip (maximum 6.1 m) on a shallower part of the fault near the trench axis, a distribution similar to other tsunami earthquakes. The total seismic moment estimated from tsunami waveform inversion was 1.0 × 10²¹ Nm, which corresponded to M_w 7.9. Computed coastal tsunami heights from this tsunami source model using linear equations are similar to the measured tsunami heights. The inundation heights computed by using detailed bathymetry and topography data and nonlinear equations including inundation were smaller than the measured ones. This may have been partly due to the limited resolution and accuracy of publically available bathymetry and topography data. One-dimensional run-up computations using our surveyed topography profiles showed that the computed heights were roughly similar to the measured ones.