Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from atmospheric global circulation models

Understanding the historical and future response of the global climate system to anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active atmospheric constituents has become a timely and compelling concern. At present, however, there are uncertainties in: the total radiative forcing associated with changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere; the effective forcing applied to the climate system resulting from a (temporary) reduction via ocean-heat uptake; and the strength of the climate feedbacks that subsequently modify this forcing. Here a set of analyses derived from atmospheric general circulation model simulations are used to estimate the effective and total radiative forcing of the observed climate system due to anthropogenic emissions over the last 50 years of the twentieth century. They are also used to estimate the sensitivity of the observed climate system to these emissions, as well as the expected change in global surface temperatures once the climate system returns to radiative equilibrium. Results indicate that estimates of the effective radiative forcing and total radiative forcing associated with historical anthropogenic emissions differ across models. In addition estimates of the historical sensitivity of the climate to these emissions differ across models. However, results suggest that the variations in climate sensitivity and total climate forcing are not independent, and that the two vary inversely with respect to one another. As such, expected equilibrium temperature changes, which are given by the product of the total radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, are relatively constant between models, particularly in comparison to results in which the total radiative forcing is assumed constant. Implications of these results for projected future climate forcings and subsequent responses are also discussed.     

An examination of climate sensitivity for idealised climate change experiments in an intermediate general circulation model

Radiative forcing and climate sensitivity have been widely used as concepts to understand climate change. This work performs climate change experiments with an intermediate general circulation model (IGCM) to examine the robustness of the radiative forcing concept for carbon dioxide and solar constant changes. This IGCM has been specifically developed as a computationally fast model, but one that allows an interaction between physical processes and large-scale dynamics; the model allows many long integrations to be performed relatively quickly. It employs a fast and accurate radiative transfer scheme, as well as simple convection and surface schemes, and a slab ocean, to model the effects of climate change mechanisms on the atmospheric temperatures and dynamics with a reasonable degree of complexity. The climatology of the IGCM run at T-21 resolution with 22 levels is compared to European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Reanalysis data. The response of the model to changes in carbon dioxide and solar output are examined when these changes are applied globally and when constrained geographically (e.g. over land only). The CO₂ experiments have a roughly 17% higher climate sensitivity than the solar experiments. It is also found that a forcing at high latitudes causes a 40% higher climate sensitivity than a forcing only applied at low latitudes. It is found that, despite differences in the model feedbacks, climate sensitivity is roughly constant over a range of distributions of CO₂ and solar forcings. Hence, in the IGCM at least, the radiative forcing concept is capable of predicting global surface temperature changes to within 30%, for the perturbations described here. It is concluded that radiative forcing remains a useful tool for assessing the natural and anthropogenic impact of climate change mechanisms on surface temperature.     

Radiative forcing and response of a GCM to ice age boundary conditions: cloud feedback and climate sensitivity

 A general circulation model is used to examine the effects of reduced atmospheric CO₂, insolation changes and an updated reconstruction of the continental ice sheets at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). A set of experiments is performed to estimate the radiative forcing from each of the boundary conditions. These calculations are used to estimate a total radiative forcing for the climate of the LGM. The response of the general circulation model to the forcing from each of the changed boundary conditions is then investigated. About two-thirds of the simulated glacial cooling is due to the presence of the continental ice sheets. The effect of the cloud feedback is substantially modified where there are large changes to surface albedo. Finally, the climate sensitivity is estimated based on the global mean LGM radiative forcing and temperature response, and is compared to the climate sensitivity calculated from equilibrium experiments with atmospheric CO₂ doubled from present day concentration. The calculations here using the model and palaeodata support a climate sensitivity of about 1 Wm^-2 K^-1 which is within the conventional range. Received: 8 February 1997 / Accepted: 4 June 1997     

Critical influence of the pattern of Tropical Ocean warming on remote climate trends

Evidence is presented that the recent trend patterns of surface air temperature and precipitation over the land masses surrounding the North Atlantic Ocean (North America, Greenland, Europe, and North Africa) have been strongly influenced by the warming pattern of the tropical oceans. The current generation of atmosphere–ocean coupled climate models with prescribed radiative forcing changes generally do not capture these regional trend patterns. On the other hand, even uncoupled atmospheric models without the prescribed radiative forcing changes, but with the observed oceanic warming specified only in the tropics, are more successful in this regard. The tropical oceanic warming pattern is poorly represented in the coupled simulations. Our analysis points to model error rather than unpredictable climate noise as a major cause of this discrepancy with respect to the observed trends. This tropical error needs to be reduced to increase confidence in regional climate change projections around the globe, and to formulate better societal responses to projected changes in high-impact phenomena such as droughts and wet spells.     

The impacts of optical properties on radiative forcing due to dust aerosol

There are large uncertainties in the quantitative assessment of radiative effects due to atmospheric dust aerosol. The optical properties contribute much to those uncertainties. The authors perform several sensitivity experiments to estimate the impacts of optical characteristics on regional radiative forcing in this paper. The experiments involve in refractive indices, single scattering aibedo, asymmetry factor and optical depth. An updated dataset of refractive indices representing East Asian dust and the one recommended by the World Meteorology Organization （WMO） are contrastively analyzed and used. A radiative transfer code for solar and thermal infrared radiation with detailed aerosol parameterization is employed. The strongest emphasis is on the refractive indices since other optical parameters strongly depend on it, and the authors found a strong sensitivity of radiative forcing on refractive indices. Studies show stronger scattering, weaker absorption and forward scattering of the East Asian dust particles at solar wavelengths, which leads to higher negative forcing, lower positive forcing and bigger net forcing at the top of the atmosphere （TOA） than that of the WMO dust model. It is also found that the TOA forcings resulting from these two dust models have opposite signs in certain regions, which implies the importance of accurate measurements of optical properties in the quantitative estimation of radiative forcing.     

Review of simulations of climate variability and change with the GFDL R30 coupled climate model

A review is presented of the development and simulation characteristics of the most recent version of a global coupled model for climate variability and change studies at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, as well as a review of the climate change experiments performed with the model. The atmospheric portion of the coupled model uses a spectral technique with rhomboidal 30 truncation, which corresponds to a transform grid with a resolution of approximately 3.75° longitude by 2.25° latitude. The ocean component has a resolution of approximately 1.875° longitude by 2.25° latitude. Relatively simple formulations of river routing, sea ice, and land surface processes are included. Two primary versions of the coupled model are described, differing in their initialization techniques and in the specification of sub-grid scale oceanic mixing of heat and salt. For each model a stable control integration of near millennial scale duration has been conducted, and the characteristics of both the time-mean and variability are described and compared to observations. A review is presented of a suite of climate change experiments conducted with these models using both idealized and realistic estimates of time-varying radiative forcing. Some experiments include estimates of forcing from past changes in volcanic aerosols and solar irradiance. The experiments performed are described, and some of the central findings are highlighted. In particular, the observed increase in global mean surface temperature is largely contained within the spread of simulated global mean temperatures from an ensemble of experiments using observationally-derived estimates of the changes in radiative forcing from increasing greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols.     

大气气溶胶变化对农业影响的研究进展

随着工业化和城市化的迅速发展,大气气溶胶含量和种类明显增加,它们通过直接吸收和反射太阳辐射以及改变其它辐射强迫因子(云、臭氧)的大小间接影响地气系统的能量收支,从而影响气候。气溶胶变化对气候的影响已有较多的研究,而对植被(农业)的影响是一个相对较新的研究领域,文章简要概述了大气气溶胶辐射强迫效应和大气气溶胶对农业的影响研究现状及国内外主要研究成果,并对气溶胶监测方法及模式评估方面可能存在的问题作了简单的分析。     

气候模式分辨率对气溶胶气候效应模拟结果的影响

气候模式分辨率作为影响模式模拟结果的重要因素,其对气溶胶与云相互作用的影响尚未全面认识。利用公共大气模型CAM5.3在3种分辨率（2°、1°、0.5°）下,分别采用2000年和1850年气溶胶排放情景进行试验,检验提高分辨率是否能改进气候模式的模拟能力,分析不同分辨率下气溶胶气候效应的异同,探索模式分辨率对气溶胶气候效应数值模拟结果的影响。通过观测资料与模式结果对比发现,提高分辨率可以明显改进模式对总云量、云短波辐射强迫的模拟能力,0.5°分辨率下模拟结果与观测更接近,其他变量并无明显改善。在不同分辨率下,全球平均的气溶胶气候效应较为一致,总云量、云水路径均增加,云短波和长波辐射强迫均加强,而云顶的云滴有效半径和降水均减小,地面气温降低。不同分辨率下,气溶胶增加引起的气溶胶光学厚度、云水路径、地面温度、云短波和长波辐射强迫变化的纬向平均分布相似但大小存在差异;而降水和云量变化的纬向分布与大小均存在较大差异,在区域尺度上还存在较大的不确定性。全球平均而言, 0.5°分辨率下气溶胶的间接辐射强迫相比1°分辨率下的结果降低了2.5%,相比2°分辨率下的结果降低了6.4%。提高模式分辨率可以部分改进模式模拟能力,同时,气溶胶的间接效应随着模式分辨率的提高而减弱。但气溶胶引起的云量、降水的变化在不同分辨率下差异较大,存在较大的不确定性。      

Integrated Global System Model for Climate Policy Assessment: Feedbacks and Sensitivity Studies

Alternative policies to address global climate change are being debated in many nations and within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. To help provide objective and comprehensive analyses in support of this process, we have developed a model of the global climate system consisting of coupled sub-models of economic growth and associated emissions, natural fluxes, atmospheric chemistry, climate, and natural terrestrial ecosystems. The framework of this Integrated Global System Model is described and the results of sample runs and a sensitivity analysis are presented. This multi-component model addresses most of the major anthropogenic and natural processes involved in climate change and also is computationally efficient. As such, it can be used effectively to study parametric and structural uncertainty and to analyze the costs and impacts of many policy alternatives. Initial runs of the model have helped to define and quantify a number of feedbacks among the sub-models, and to elucidate the geographical variations in several variables that are relevant to climate science and policy. The effect of changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels on the uptake of carbon and emissions of methane and nitrous oxide by land ecosystems is one potentially important feedback which has been identified. The sensitivity analysis has enabled preliminary assessment of the effects of uncertainty in the economic, atmospheric chemistry, and climate sub-models as they influence critical model results such as predictions of temperature, sea level, rainfall, and ecosystem productivity. We conclude that uncertainty regarding economic growth, technological change, deep oceanic circulation, aerosol radiative forcing, and cloud processes are important influences on these outputs.     

Direct human influence of irrigation on atmospheric water vapour and climate

Human activity increases the atmospheric water vapour content in an indirect way through climate feedbacks. We conclude here that human activity also has a direct influence on the water vapour concentration through irrigation. In idealised simulations we estimate a global mean radiative forcing in the range of 0.03 to +0.1 Wm^–2 due to the increase in water vapour from irrigation. However, because the water cycle is embodied in the climate system, irrigation has a more complex influence on climate. We also simulate a change in the temperature vertical profile and a large surface cooling of up to 0.8 K over irrigated land areas. This is of opposite sign than expected from the radiative forcing alone, and this questions the applicability of the radiative forcing concept for such a climatic perturbation. Further, this study shows stronger links than previously recognised between climate change and freshwater scarcity which are environmental issues of paramount importance for the twenty first century.     

一维辐射对流模式对云-辐射强迫的数值模拟研究

利用一维辐射－对流气候模式, 详细研究了云量、云光学厚度以及云高等要素的变化对大气顶和地面太阳短波辐射和红外长波辐射通量以及云的辐射强迫的影响, 给出了计算这些物理量的经验拟合公式。结果表明, 云具有极为重要的辐射－气候效应。云量、云光学厚度以及云高即使只有百分之几的变化, 所带来的辐射强迫也可以与大气二氧化碳浓度加倍所产生的辐射强迫（3.75 W/m2）相比拟。例如, 当分别给它们+3%的扰动时, 即取云量变化0.015, 云光学厚度变化0.27, 以及云高变化0.15 km时（在实际的地球大气中, 这种尺度的变化是完全可能发生的）, 那么,可以得到地气系统的太阳短波辐射强迫-3.10 W/m2以及红外长波辐射强迫-1.77 W/m2, 二者之和为-4.78 W/m2, 已经完全可以抵消大气二氧化碳浓度加倍所产生的辐射强迫。但是, 当云量、云光学厚度以及云高向相反方向产生类似扰动时, 所产生的辐射强迫可能极大地放大二氧化碳浓度增加所产生的增强温室效应。因此, 研究结果揭示出, 不管是为了解释过去的气候变化, 还是预测未来的气候变化, 亟待加强在一个变化了的气候环境（例如地面温度升高）下, 云将发生何种变化的研究。     

近20 a驱动北极夏季迅速增暖和融冰的自然因素及过程

北极是全球气候系统平衡的重要一环,近20 a全球变暖现象中,北极迅速增温及融冰是最为引人关注的问题之一.人类影响无疑是过去几十年北极变暖背后的最主要的原因及驱动力,但气候系统的内在自然变率对北极的影响也不容忽视.本文指出,北极变暖的自然影响因子有一部分来源于热带太平洋东部海温的变化,热带太平洋通过由东部海温异常所驱动的...     

我国对流层臭氧增加对气温的影响

利用耦台的区域气候模式和大气化学模式模拟对流层臭氧的产生、分布和对辐射传输、地表温度、气温等的影响。通过对比模拟发现：对流层中臭氧的增加基本使大气顶晴空辐射强迫为正；对流层中的臭氧含量变化能影响云量且进一步影响温度。由于对流层臭氧增加导致的晴空辐射强迫在4月份最大、1月份最小。     

Hierarchical evaluation of IPCC AR4 coupled climate models with systematic consideration of model uncertainties

The capability of reproducing observed surface air temperature (SAT) changes for the twentieth century is assessed using 22 multi-models which contribute to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. A Bayesian method is utilized for model evaluation by which model uncertainties are considered systematically. We provide a hierarchical analysis for global to sub-continental regions with two settings. First, regions of different size are evaluated separately at global, hemispheric, continental, and sub-continental scales. Second, the global SAT trend patterns are evaluated with gradual refinement of horizontal scales (higher dimensional analysis). Results show that models with natural plus anthropogenic forcing (MME_ALL) generally exhibit better skill than models with anthropogenic only forcing (MME_ANTH) at all spatial scales for different trend periods (entire twentieth century and its first and second halves). This confirms previous studies that suggest the important role of natural forcing. For the second half of the century, we found that MME_ANTH performs well compared to MME_ALL except for a few models with overestimated warming. This indicates not only major contributions of anthropogenic forcing over that period but also the applicability of both MMEs to observationally-constrained future predictions of climate changes. In addition, the skill-weighted averages with the Bayes factors [Bayesian model averaging (BMA)] show a general superiority over other error-based weighted averaging methods, suggesting a potential advantage of BMA for climate change predictions.     

The Climate Response to Global Forest Area Changes under Different Warming Scenarios in China

Human activities have notably affected the Earth’s climate through greenhouse gases(GHG), aerosol, and land use/land cover change(LULCC). To investigate the impact of forest changes on regional climate under different shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs), changes in surface air temperature and precipitation over China under low and medium/high radiative forcing scenarios from 2021 to 2099 are analyzed using multimodel climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP...     

气候系统及模式中反馈机制研究 Ⅰ.研究和方法

气候系统中存在着各种各样的气候反馈机制,而气候模式对这些反馈机制描述的差异,正是造成不同模式对同一直接辐射强迫（如二氧化碳加倍）的响应不同的主要原因。因此,只有正确描述气候系统中的各种反馈作用,气候模式才可能用来对未来的气候变化进行预测。为此,本文首先介绍了气候系统及模式反馈机制分析研究时所常用的一些概念,如气候敏感性参数、云辐射强迫等,随后概述了气候模式反馈机制比较分析时常用的各种方法,并指出了这些方法各自的优缺点。而详细的有关气候系统及模式中反馈作用及其机制的分析则在文章的第II部分给出。     

Anthropogenic and natural causes of climate change

We test for causality between radiative forcing and temperature using multivariate time series models and Granger causality tests that are robust to the non-stationary (trending) nature of global climate data. We find that both natural and anthropogenic forcings cause temperature change and also that temperature causes greenhouse gas concentration changes. Although the effects of greenhouse gases and volcanic forcing are robust across model specifications, we cannot detect any effect of black carbon on temperature, the effect of changes in solar irradiance is weak, and the effect of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may be only around half that usually attributed to them.     

Asthenospheric ice-load effects in a global dynamical-system model of the Pleistocene climate

In a previous dynamical model the late Cenozoic climate variations were simulated, taking into account free and forced variations of atmospheric carbon dioxide acting in concert with changes in global ice mass and the deep ocean thermal state, all under the influence of the known earth-orbital radiative changes. This model is now extended by adding another relevant variable, bedrock/asthenosphere depression, including its associated ice-calving effects. Within the context of this extended model we (1) demonstrate the main results of previous bedrock/ice sheet models in what we believe is the simplest possible manner, (2) show how these previous models can exhibit the mid-Pleistocene transition with the inclusion of CO₂ effects, (3) discuss the limitations of these previous bedrock models, and (4) illustrate the possibility of removing some of these limitations and accounting for further aspects of the paleoclimate record by using the full dynamical system that includes forced and free effects of CO₂, as well as effects of bedrock depression and Milankovitch forcing. As one example of a new possibility, with bedrock effects included in the full system we can obtain a solution characterized by irregularly spaced, intermittent episodes in which the behavior is dominated either by near-40 kyr period oscillations or by near-100 kyr periods (such as prevailed over the Pleistocene).     

RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100

Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5?W?m^?2 in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value. Simulated with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), RCP4.5 includes long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover in a global economic framework. RCP4.5 was updated from earlier GCAM scenarios to incorporate historical emissions and land cover information common to the RCP process and follows a cost-minimizing pathway to reach the target radiative forcing. The imperative to limit emissions in order to reach this target drives changes in the energy system, including shifts to electricity, to lower emissions energy technologies and to the deployment of carbon capture and geologic storage technology. In addition, the RCP4.5 emissions price also applies to land use emissions; as a result, forest lands expand from their present day extent. The simulated future emissions and land use were downscaled from the regional simulation to a grid to facilitate transfer to climate models. While there are many alternative pathways to achieve a radiative forcing level of 4.5?W?m^?2, the application of the RCP4.5 provides a common platform for climate models to explore the climate system response to stabilizing the anthropogenic components of radiative forcing.     

The dynamic greenhouse: Feedback processes that may influence future concentrations of atmospheric trace gases and climatic change

The sensitivity of the climate system to anthropogenic perturbations over the next century will be determined by a combination of feedbacks that amplify or damp the direct radiative effects of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. A number of important geophysical climate feedbacks, such as changes in water vapor, clouds, and sea ice albedo, are included in current climate models, but biogeochemical feedbacks such as changes in methane emissions, ocean CO₂ uptake, and vegetation albedo are generally neglected. The relative importance of a wide range of feedbacks is assessed here by estimating the gain associated with each individual process. The gain from biogeochemical feedbacks is estimated to be 0.05–0.29 compared to 0.17–0.77 for geophysical climate feedbacks. The potentially most significant biogeochemical feedbacks are probably release of methane hydrates, changes in ocean chemistry, biology, and circulation, and changes in the albedo of the global vegetation. While each of these feedbacks is modest compared to the water vapor feedback, the biogeochemical feedbacks in combination have the potential to substantially increase the climate change associated with any given initial forcing.The views expressed are the author's: They do not express official views of the U.S. Government or the Environmental Protection Agency.