西安入境旅游者认知和感知价值与行为意图

旅游者行为是行为地理学研究的重要内容。旅游者在旅游目的地的体验评价是旅游者对旅游目的地的一种认知评估,这种认知评估是旅游者认知在理性和情感层面的唤醒,其结果直接影响旅游者的行为意图。通过构建旅游者认知和旅游者感知价值、旅游者行为意图的结构方程(SEM),以西安入境旅游者为实例研究发现:①旅游者个体认知行为和感知价值及旅游者行为意图呈正相关关系,当个体认知评价水平增加时个体感知价值也对应增加,这种正相关关系使感知价值和行为意图也呈现正相关关系,即个体感知价值水平越高个体行为意图越强烈;②旅游者对旅游服务的感知价值、旅游设施的感知价值和旅游吸引力的感知价值是主导旅游者行为意图的主要因素;③该研究结果不仅在技术层面上证明了旅游者认知和旅游者感知价值、旅游者行为意图的关系,在理论和方法创新上也弥补了发生学中个体认知和其它行为变量之间关系研究的空缺,即个体认知评价和个体行为意图之间为正相关关系,这也支持了体验观点中"认知-感动-行为"的研究范例。研究结果说明了旅游者个体认知研究可以很好的预测旅游者行为意图,这对旅游目的地形象等研究有着重要的理论和实践意义。     

目的地特殊自然灾害后游客的认知研究——以“5.12"汶川地震后的九寨沟为例

灾后理解旅游者是目的地减少灾害事件带来经济损失的基础工作.本研究着力于探究国内游客的风险认知、灾害对旅游影响的感知与满意度、忠诚度之间的关系,在“5.12”汶川地震发生约一周年后,以灾区中的世界自然遗产地九寨沟为案例地,对正在景区游览的572位国内游客进行问卷调查.通过结构方程模型分析证实:旅游者的风险认知水平越低,对...     

主客交往偏好对目的地形象和游客 满意度的影响 ——以广西阳朔为例

旅游者和东道主之间交往的性质等因素决定了旅游活动中的主客交往很难取得较好的效果,学术界对主客交往效应的经验研究也没能得到统一的结论。本研究根据目的地国内旅游主客交往效应研究的不足,以阳朔国内旅游者为例,使用结构方程模型技术探讨主客交往偏好对目的地形象感知和游客满意度的影响。研究发现:主客交往显著影响目的地形象、目的地形象显著影响满意度,但主客交往对满意度无直接影响,主要通过目的地形象对满意度产生间接影响。具体地说,主客交往偏好包括密切交往和适度交往两个维度,密切交往对认知形象有显著正向直接影响;密切交往通过认知形象和情感形象对满意度产生间接影响;认知形象和情感形象显著正向直接影响满意度;认知形象通过情感形象对满意度产生间接影响。文章最后还分析了研究的理论和管理意义。     

旅华美国游客目的地城市色彩意象认知研究

色彩是旅游目的地意象的重要外显形式与构成,其虽被广泛应用于旅游目的地建设与发展,但其理论研究在国内外几近空白.本文以旅华美国游客为研究对象,以旅游目的地城市色彩意象认知为研究内容,通过10 批次全程客流跟踪的调研方式获取了研究资料,运用扎根理论构建了旅华美国游客的目的地城市色彩意象认知维度模型,并通过二次定点调研方式对本研究的理论饱和度进行了检验.研究结果表明：① 旅游目的地城市色彩意象认知的主要影响因素为城市色彩基调与建筑、旅游吸引物、人际影响、差异性文化感知、旅游经历、旅游目的地人文与自然环境;② 目的地城市色彩意象认知由视觉色彩和理念色彩两部分构成;③ 游客的个人偏好和旅游情感会直接作用于旅游目的地城市色彩意象认知,并直接导致游客产生行为意图;④ 游客的目的地城市色彩意象认知会刺激并促使游客产生行为意图.本文讨论中提出了旅游目的地城市色彩意象认知加工的发生机制与过程模型.     

基于扎根理论与文本分析的海洋旅游目的地意象研究

旅游目的地意象在旅游者决策与目的地开发中具有重要作用，也是旅游研究中的热点领域。海洋旅游目的地意象的研究对于提高目的地竞争力与吸引力具有重要意义。本文以夏威夷为例，基于国内旅游者发布在网络上的游记，利用扎根理论与文本分析法对夏威夷的认知意象、情感意象与总体意象进行分析。研究发现，“海洋自然吸引物”、“海洋人文吸引物”、“海洋旅游活动”、“目的地软环境”、“旅游服务”、“公共场所与服务”是构成海洋旅游目的地认知意象的六个主范畴；在此基础上，通过提取游记中的情感语句并结合“情感环状模型”发现夏威夷的情感意象以正面情感为主；从语义网络与重游意愿来看，夏威夷的总体意象较为积极，并未出现明显的负面感知要素。研究旨在为国内海洋旅游目的地的发展提供一定的经验与借鉴。     

旅游者感知文化距离对民族文化遗产体验意愿影响机制

基于“认知－情感－意动”理论框架,引入旅行生涯模式理论,构建了包括旅游者感知文化距离、感知新奇、感知文化风险、文化体验意愿和旅游经验等构念在内的模型,以2个典型民族文化遗产旅游目的地——广西龙脊梯田和贵州肇兴侗寨为案例地,运用PLS-SEM工具检验结构模型,结果表明：1）认知阶段对情感阶段的影响显著,即TPCD正向影响感知新奇和感知文化风险,情感阶段对意动阶段的影响亦显著,即感知新奇正向影响文化体验意愿而感知文化风险负向影响文化体验意愿;2）感知新奇与感知文化风险在TPCD对文化体验意愿的影响过程中起中介作用,该结论验证了旅游者文化体验意愿产生的心理过程遵循CAC理论模型,这是一个认知影响情感进而影响行为意愿的递进过程;3）认知积累在认知阶段对情感阶段影响路径中的调节作用部分显著,即旅游经验负向调节TPCD对感知文化风险的正向影响,但在TPCD对感知新奇的正向影响过程中的调节效应不显著。结论表明,感知文化距离在特定的国内旅游情境下同样对旅游者行为意愿有显著影响,这在一定程度上拓展了旅游文化距离研究的对象范围。     

游客涉入对旅游目的地形象感知的影响——盎格鲁入境旅游者与国内旅游者的比较

本研究的主要目的是从维度层次探讨游客涉入对目的地形象感知的影响,并对盎格鲁入境旅游者(n = 349) 和国内旅游者(n = 292) 两个群体的影响模式进行比较。游客涉入测量使用Gursoy & Gavcar 修订的国际休闲旅游者游客涉入量表,包括娱乐/兴趣、风险可能性和风险后果3 个维度;目的地形象测量使用Baloglu 的目的地形象量表,包括认知形象和情感形象2 个成份。以桂林、阳朔作为案例地,使用多组结构模型分析方法比较两个群体的结构模型。研究发现：游客涉入对目的地形象感知有显著影响,具体表现为娱乐/兴趣显著正向影响认知和情感形象;风险后果显著负向影响认知和情感形象;风险可能性对情感形象无显著影响,国内旅游者风险可能性显著正向影响认知形象,但盎格鲁入境旅游者没有发现这种影响;2 个子样本只有娱乐/兴趣→认知形象和风险可能性→认知形象两个路径系数存在差异,其他路径系数均等值。     

历史文化村落居民旅游支持度影响因素分析--以林浦历史文化名村为例北大核心CSSCI

居民参与是旅游发展中的重要要素,居民对旅游的认知、预期和态度都对目的地旅游产业发展和提升有重大影响。本文选择历史文化村落林浦为案例地,基于社会交换理论构建假设模型,并通过结构方程模型(SEM)验证,探讨目的地居民对地方旅游发展潜力认知、地方感、旅游发展影响感知对其支持度的影响,发现:(1)居民对当地旅游发展潜力的认知正向影响了居民对旅游发展影响的积极感知和对旅游发展的支持度,与居民对旅游发展影响的消极感知呈负相关;(2)居民对旅游发展影响的积极和消极感知分别正向和负向影响了居民对旅游发展的支持度;(3)居民的地方感和其对旅游地旅游发展潜力的认知呈双向正相关关系,居民的地方感对旅游发展支持度带来正向影响,但其对旅游发展影响的积极和消极感知的正负向关系不显著。     

历史文化村落居民旅游支持度影响因素分析——以林浦历史文化名村为例

居民参与是旅游发展中的重要要素,居民对旅游的认知、预期和态度都对目的地旅游产业发展和提升有重大影响。本文选择历史文化村落林浦为案例地,基于社会交换理论构建假设模型,并通过结构方程模型(SEM)验证,探讨目的地居民对地方旅游发展潜力认知、地方感、旅游发展影响感知对其支持度的影响,发现:(1)居民对当地旅游发展潜力的认知正向影响了居民对旅游发展影响的积极感知和对旅游发展的支持度,与居民对旅游发展影响的消极感知呈负相关;(2)居民对旅游发展影响的积极和消极感知分别正向和负向影响了居民对旅游发展的支持度;(3)居民的地方感和其对旅游地旅游发展潜力的认知呈双向正相关关系,居民的地方感对旅游发展支持度带来正向影响,但其对旅游发展影响的积极和消极感知的正负向关系不显著。     

城市形象感知对旅游满意度的影响---基于武汉市旅游者的调查分析

城市旅游满意度可能受到城市形象感知的影响,并非只受到旅游要素的影响。借鉴行为心理学和旅游需求相关理论,通过演绎推理提出有待检验的理论假说和模型,利用武汉市旅游者的问卷调查数据,借助结构方程模型检验这些理论假说和模型。结果表明:经过细微调整后,城市认知形象感知、情感形象感知、旅游满意度的模型构建合理;与替代模型相比较,构建的理论模型最佳;城市认知形象感知、情感形象感知既直接影响又通过感知价值的调节间接影响旅游满意度,且作用大于旅游动机。因此,提升城市形象感知是提高城市旅游满意度的有效路径。     

Statistical analysis of seismicity in a wide region around the 1998 Mw 8.1 Balleny Islands earthquake in the Antarctic Plate

A large earthquake (Mw 8.1) that occurred off the North Coast of the Antarctic continent near the Balleny Islands on 25 March 1998 was the largest intra-plate earthquake ever recorded in the Antarctic Plate. The earthquake hypocenter catalog for this area shows a marked change in seismicity following the main shock in a large area around the Balleny aftershock region. However, the earthquake catalog includes many aftershocks and is affected by a variable detection rate. To overcome these limitations, we applied statistical models and methods, including Gutenberg–Richter’s magnitude frequency distribution, the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model, and the space–time ETAS model, thereby enabling calculation of the change in detection rate. The results show a change in the spatial pattern of background seismicity over a large region after the 1998 event.     

The influence of earthquakes on the Chandler wobble during 1977–1983

Summary. A direct calculation is made of the effect on the Chandler wobble of 1287 earthquakes that occurred during 1977–1983. The hypocentral parameters (location and origin time) and the moment tensor representation of the best point source for each earthquake as determined by the 'centroidmoment tensor' technique were used to calculate the change in the Chandler wobble's excitation function by assuming this change is due solely to the static deformation field generated by that earthquake. The resulting theoretical earthquake excitation function is compared with the 'observed' excitation function that is obtained by deconvolving a Chandler wobble time series derived from LAGEOS polar motion data. Since only 7 years of data are available for analysis it is not possible to resolve the Chandler band and determine whether or not the theoretical earthquake excitation function derived here is coherent and in phase with the 'observed' excitation function in that band. However, since the power spectrum of the earthquake excitation function is about 56 dB less than that of the 'observed' excitation function at frequencies near the Chandler frequency, it is concluded that earthquakes, via their static deformation field, have had a negligible influence on the Chandler wobble during 1977–1983. However, fault creep or any type of aseismic slip that occurs on a time-scale much less than the period of the Chandler wobble could have an important (and still unmodelled) effect on the Chandler wobble.     

A geomagnetic precursor to the 1979 Carlisle earthquake

Summary. A study of horizontal field transfer functions, in the period range 10–10⁴s, has been made for the 2 yr period preceding the 1979 Carlisle earthquake (magnitude 5). The study using two sites, local to and remote from the earthquake epicentre, reveals that a precursory effect is observed at short periods (<10²s) some 35 km from the main epicentre. The results indicate a change from two-dimensional geolectric anisotropy to a more conductive three-dimensional geoelectric configuration during the period immediately preceding the earthquake.     

Wide-scale detection of earthquake waveform doublets and further evidence for inner core super-rotation

We report on more than 100 earthquake waveform doublets in five subduction zones, including an earthquake nest in Bucaramanga, Colombia. Each doublet is presumed to be a pair of earthquakes that repeat at essentially the same location. These doublets are important for studying earthquake physics, as well as temporal changes of the inner core. Particularly, our observation from one South Sandwich Islands (SSI) doublet recorded at station INK in Canada shows an inner core traveltime change of ∼0.1 s over ∼6 yr, confirming the inner-core differential motion occurring beneath Central America. Observations from one Aleutian Islands doublet, recorded at station BOSA in South Africa, and from one Kuril Islands doublet, recorded at station BDFB in Brazil, show an apparent inner core traveltime change of ∼0.1 s over ∼7 yr and ∼6 yr, respectively, providing evidence for the temporal change of inner core properties beneath Central Asia and Canada, respectively. On the other hand, observations from one Tonga–Fiji–Solomon Islands doublet, recorded at station PTGA in Brazil, and from one Bucaramanga doublet, recorded at station WRAB in Australia and station CHTO in Thailand, show no/little temporal change (no more than 0.005 s yr⁻¹, if any) of inner core traveltimes for the three corresponding ray paths for which the path in the inner core is nearly parallel to the equatorial plane. Such a pattern of observations showing both presence and possible absence of inner-core traveltime change can be explained by the geometry and relative directions of ray path, lateral velocity gradient and inner-core particle motion due to an eastward super-rotation of a few tenths of a degree per year.     

A city hit by an earthquake: an HGIS approach to reconstructing the damage in Tiberias (Israel) in 1837

On 1 January 1837 a devastating earthquake struck northern Ottoman Palestine, Lebanon and southern Syria, causing considerable damage in many localities. Tiberias, located on the western shores of the Sea of Galilee, suffered badly and many of its inhabitants were injured or perished. Yet, although the earthquake and the resulting damage were described in many contemporary sources, evaluation of the damage and its spatial distribution was never made before. In this study textual and visual sources were collected and compiled to evaluate the damage that resulted. An HGIS (historical GIS) approach was implemented to examine these sources, geo-code the damage and digitally reconstruct Tiberias at the time. The results were a contemporaneous map of Tiberias at the beginning of the nineteenth century and three-dimensional models of the city prior to and after the earthquake. The models enabled a 360º examination of the damage distribution in high resolution and evaluation of the overall impact of the earthquake. This study demonstrates the use of HGIS in the reconstruction of past urban cityscapes and the investigation of earthquake damage. It also suggests extending this methodology to other historical–geographical studies of past landscapes and to the examination of any kind of gradual or dramatic change.     

Resolution and significance assessment of precursory changes in mean earthquake magnitudes

The Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 7.0), which occurred in October 1989 in central California, was preceded by a period during which the mean magnitude of background seismicity in a small region near the eventual epicentre was abnormally low. This period may have begun as early as 1979, and it continued until mid-1988, after which the mean magnitude increased to a higher than normal value until the main earthquake. These changes were observed in the seismicity of an area 40  km in radius, centred on the Loma Prieta epicentre, and are consistent with the predictions of fracture mechanics studies. The 1988 change correlates with a reported change in long-term strain.
  A procedure has been developed for resolving such temporal changes in seismicity using CUSUM statistics. It demonstrates that the anomaly was highly significant, on the basis of analyses of two independent catalogues. There was also a significant anomaly before the 1994 Northridge earthquake.
  The hypothesis that large earthquakes are preceded by periods in which the mean magnitude of background activity is abnormally low, in the immediate vicinity of the eventual epicentre, is a tantalizing one. The analysis tool examined here may be useful for resolving such changes. Care needs to be taken, however, in routine surveillance of earthquake populations that contain large aftershock sequences.     

Shear-wave polarizations near the North Anatolian Fault – I. Evidence for anisotropy-induced shear-wave splitting

Summary. The Turkish Dilatancy Projects (TDP1 in 1979 and TDP2 in 1980) recorded small earthquakes near the North Anatolian Fault with closely-spaced networks of three-component seismometers in order to investigate the possibility of diagnosing dilatancy from its effects of shear-wave propagation. This paper examines the polarizations of shear wavetrains recorded in the shear-wave window immediately above the earthquake foci. Abrupt changes in the orientation and/or ellipticity of the shear-wave polarizations are almost always observed during the first few cycles following the initial shear-wave arrival on each seismogram. The horizontal projections of the polarizations of the first shear-wave arrivals at any given station show nearly parallel alignments with approximately the same orientations at each of the recording sites (with one exception). It is difficult to explain this uniform alignment over a wide area in terms of scattering at the irregular surface topography or by earthquake focal mechanisms. We demonstrate that the shear-wave splitting is likely to be the result of anisotropy in the region above the earthquake foci, which could produce polarizations displaying the observed alignments. The temporal change of the azimuth of alignment, observed at one locality between 1979 and 1980, may be due to the release of a local stress anomaly by a very near earthquake.     

Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering

10 M ≥ 6.7 earthquakes ruptured 1000 km of the North Anatolian fault (Turkey) during 1939–1992, providing an unsurpassed opportunity to study how one large shock sets up the next. We use the mapped surface slip and fault geometry to infer the transfer of stress throughout the sequence. Calculations of the change in Coulomb failure stress reveal that nine out of 10 ruptures were brought closer to failure by the preceding shocks, typically by 1–10 bar, equivalent to 3–30 years of secular stressing. We translate the calculated stress changes into earthquake probability gains using an earthquake-nucleation constitutive relation, which includes both permanent and transient effects of the sudden stress changes. The transient effects of the stress changes dominate during the mean 10 yr period between triggering and subsequent rupturing shocks in the Anatolia sequence. The stress changes result in an average three-fold gain in the net earthquake probability during the decade after each event. Stress is calculated to be high today at several isolated sites along the fault. During the next 30 years, we estimate a 15 per cent probability of a M ≥ 6.7 earthquake east of the major eastern centre of Ercinzan, and a 12 per cent probability for a large event south of the major western port city of Izmit. Such stress-based probability calculations may thus be useful to assess and update earthquake hazards elsewhere.     

高地震烈度区堆积体边坡动力响应时程特征分析

考虑到在地震过程中,工程边坡的动安全系数最小值出现在某一瞬间,而用这个值评价边坡在地震荷载作用下的抗滑稳定性不合适宜。在简单分析地震荷载作用下边坡稳定性评价的主要方法及差异基础上,介绍了地震动力响应时程分析法的基本原理和计算过程,明确指出了边坡动力稳定分析时应注意的边界条件、材料参数等问题,建立了评价动力稳定性的有限元应力法表达式。基于地震动力时程反应,结合金安桥水电站库岸堆积体边坡工程,用动力有限元计算获得了边坡的动力响应在空间的变化规律(包括动应力和加速度等)和整体稳定性,计算成果合理地评价了其稳定性。     

Source process and tectonic implications of the great 1975 North Atlantic earthquake

Summary. The Atlantic segment of the Africa–Europe plate boundary has usually been interpreted as a transform boundary on the basis of the bathymetric expression of the Gloria fault and dextral strike-slip first-motion mechanisms aligned along the Azores–Gibraltar line of seismicity. The 1975 May 26 earthquake ( M _s=7.9) was assumed to fit into this framework because it occurred in the general area of this line and has a similar first-motion focal mechanism (strike=288°, dip=72°, slip angle=184°). However, several anomalies cast doubt on this picture: the event is abnormally large for an oceanic transform event; a sizeable tsunami was excited; the aftershock area is unusually small for such a large event; and most significantly, the epicentre is 200 km south of the presumed plate boundary. The Rayleigh wave radiation pattern indicates a change in focal mechanism to one with a significant dip-slip component. The short duration of the source time history (20 s, as deconvolved from long-period P -waves), the lack of directivity in the Rayleigh waves, and the small one-day aftershock area suggest a fault length less than 80 km. One nodal plane of the earthquake is approximately aligned with the trace of an ancient fracture zone.
We have compared the Pasadena 1-90 record of the 1975 earthquake to that of the 1941 North Atlantic strike-slip earthquake (200 km to the NNW) and confirmed the large size of the 1941 event ( M =8.2). The non-colinear relationship of the 1975 and 1941 events suggests that there is no well-defined plate boundary between the Azores and Gibraltar. This interpretation is supported by the intraplate nature of both the 1975 event and the large 1969 thrust event 650 km to the east. This study also implies that the largest oceanic strike-slip earthquakes occur in old lithosphere in a transitional tectonic regime.