青藏高原植被变化特征及其对气候变化的影响

利用1982-2001年美国国家航天航空局(NASA)的归一化植被指数(NDVI)资料以及55个青藏高原地区气象台站实测的最高气温、最低气温、平均气温和降水资料,初步分析了青藏高原地区各季节植被变化特征及其对气候变化的影响,通过分析发现,各季节青藏高原地区NDVI均以增长为主.特别是高原南部、北部和西部等地区增加明显,高原中东部地区植被有所减少.通过相关分析和台站概率相关分析发现,高原冬季和春季NDVI与后期春季和夏季的最高气温、最低气温、平均气温和降水有较好的正相关关系,但有的表现在相关系数比较显著,有的表现为概率相关较明显.     

青藏高原冰雪消融区岩漠动态变化遥感监测研究现状与展望

青藏高原作为地球第三极增温明显,相关研究多集中于青藏高原冰雪动态,很少关注冰雪消融后岩漠的变化。岩漠通过地气相互作用影响着全球气候变化的区域差异。本文通过梳理青藏高原冰雪、冰雪消融区、岩漠动态变化遥感监测方法体系,着重分析了各遥感数据来源及提取方法的优缺点和适用性,并对基于遥感技术条件下青藏高原冰雪动态监测、冰雪消融区岩漠动态变化监测的数据来源、研究方法与技术进行了总结。目前,青藏高原冰雪动态变化遥感监测数据来源多样、研究方法成熟,而冰雪消融区岩漠动态变化遥感监测尚未形成系统研究。在人为干扰不明显背景下,青藏高原冰雪消融区岩漠的动态变化,在一定程度上也可作为对冰雪变化遥感监测的补充。     

The research of Polar sea ice and its role in climate change

As an important part of global climate system, the Polar sea ice is effccting on global climate changes through ocean surface radiation balance, mass balance, energy balance as well as the circulating of sea water temperature and salinity. Sea ice research has a centuries - old history. The many correlative sea ice projects were established through the extensive international cooperation during the period from the primary research of intensity and the boaring capacity of sea ice to the development of sea/ice/air coupled model. Based on these reseamhes, the sea ice variety was combined with the global climate change. All research about sea ice includes： the physical properties and processes of sea ice and its snow cover, the ecosystem of sea ice regions, sea ice and upper snow albedo, mass balance of sea ice regions, sea ice and climate coupled model. The simulation suggests that the both of the area and volume of polar sea ice would be reduced in next century. With the developing of the sea ice research, more scientific issues are mentioned. Such as the interaction between sea ice and the other factors of global climate system, the seasonal and regional distribution of polar sea ice thickness, polar sea ice boundary and area variety trends, the growth and melt as well as their influencing factors, the role of the polynya and the sea/air interactions. We should give the best solutions to all of the issues in future sea ice studying.     

Changes in leaf vein traits among vein types of alpine grassland plants on the Tibetan Plateau

Vein traits influence photosynthesis and drought resistance and are sensitive to climate change.It is unclear whether vein traits, similar to other leaf traits, have obvious regional characteristics and covariance with other leaf traits, especially in Tibetan Plateau grasslands. We collected 66 species from 37 sites in late July of 2012 and early August of 2013 to investigate leaf vein traits and their relationships with other leaf traits in comparison with the available global database data and to elucidate vein investment of plants with different vein types. The average vein length per area(VLA) of plants in the Tibetan Plateau was within the range of the global dataset, and the relationships among vein traits and other leaf traits of alpine plants were consistent with the global models.The VLAs of parallel-veined grasses and pinnateveined forbs were significantly lower and higher than the global mean value, respectively. The leaf mass perarea and total nitrogen content of parallel-veined grasses were significantly lower and higher,respectively, than the global mean values; the opposite was observed in pinnate-veined forbs. The parallel-veined grasses exhibited almost a four-fold higher vein biomass investment(i.e., vein mass per leaf mass) than pinnate-veined forbs in the same region. The average VLA and its relationships with other leaf traits of the alpine grassland plants on the Tibetan Plateau had no regional characteristics,suggesting a convergence in plant leaf functioning.Plants with different leaf types differ in their adaptation strategies to plateau environments, and this may relate to biomass investment into leaf veins.Our study fills the gap with regard to vein density in alpine grassland species and provides a new perspective for understanding plant physiology and ecology by calculating and comparing the proportion of vein investment among different vein types.     

Quartz grain surface microtextural evidence for provenance of the Quaternary aggradation red earth deposit,southern China

The Quaternary aggradation red earth(QARE) deposit in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River(MRYR) in southern China provides important evidence for understanding the paleoenvironment. However, its provenance remains controversial. In this study, the surface microtextures of grains from the QARE were observed, and compared with those of grains from the loess deposit on the Loess Plateau in northern China. The results show that the surface microtextures and morphologies of the quartz grains in the QARE are distinctly different from those in the northern loess, indicating that the deposits in the two regions have different provenances. The Gobi and deserts in inland northwestern China are not considered as the primary provenance for the QARE in southern China. It is suggested that the large areas of dry and bare river and lake beds and floodplains in the MRYR, which became exposed during glacial periods, provided the dominant source for materials in the QARE. We suggest that against the background of the middle-Pleistocene climate transition(MPT), regional aridification and a strengthened east Asian winter monsoon(driven by global cooling and the rapid uplift of the Tibetan Plateau) were primary drivers for the initiation of the QARE deposit in the MRYR region in southern China. The development of large areas of aeolian red earth deposit is direct evidence of environmental deterioration in the MRYR, indicating a cold and dry environment with frequent aeolian activity, in an area that now experiences a warm and humid subtropical monsoon climate. The results are also evidence of a regional response in the mid-subtropics of southern China to the MPT global cooling event around 1.2 Ma.     

2002-2012年青藏高原积雪物候变化及其对气候的响应

积雪是地表最活跃的自然要素之一,其动态变化对气候、环境以及人类生活都产生了重要影响。本文利用MODIS积雪产品和IMS雪冰产品,首先通过Terra、Aqua双星合成和临近日合成去除MODIS积雪产品中的部分云像元,再与IMS融合,获取了青藏高原2002-2012年逐日无云积雪覆盖产品,并逐像元计算每个水文年的积雪覆盖日数（SCD）、积雪开始期（SCS）和积雪结束期（SCE）,分析了不同生态分区积雪的时空变化特征,以及积雪开始期和结束期与温度、降水的关系。结果表明：青藏高原积雪分布存在明显的空间差异,南部喜马拉雅山脉和念青唐古拉山地区以及西部帕米尔高原和喀喇昆仑山脉为SCD的2个高值区,年均积雪日数在200 d以上。18.1%的区域SCS表现出明显的提前趋势,主要集中在青藏高原中东部;羌塘高原南部、念青唐古拉山西段以及川西地区有显著推迟趋势,占高原面积的8.5%。23.2%的区域SCE显著推迟,主要集中在果洛那曲高寒区、昆仑山区和念青唐古拉山地区;而仅有6.9%的区域表现出提前趋势,主要分布在高原西南部。总体上,不同生态单元内积雪开始与结束期受温度、降水的影响差异很大,表现出不同的空间格局与演变趋势。     

Characteristics and Cause Analysis of Variations in Light Precipitation Events in the Central and Eastern Tibetan Plateau,China,During 1961–2019

The Tibetan Plateau(TP)is one of the most sensitive areas and is more susceptible to climate change than other regions in China.The TP also experiences extremely frequent light precipitation events compared to precipitation of other intensities.However,the definition,influencing factors,and characteristics of light precipitation in the TP have not been accurately explained.This study investigated the variation characteristics of light precipitation with intensities(Pre)of 0.1-10.0 mm/d based on climate data from 53 meteorological stations over the central and eastern TP from 1961 to 2019.For detailed analysis,light precipitation events were classified into five grades:G1[0.1-2.0 mm/d),G2[2.0-4.0 mm/d),G3[4.0-6.0 mm/d),G4[6.0-8.0 mm/d),and G5[8.0-10.0 mm/d).The results showed that both the amount of precipitation and number of precipitation days had increased significantly at rates of 4.0-6.0 mm/10 yr and 2.0-4.0 d/10 yr,respectively,and most precipitation events were of low intensity(0.1≤Pre<2.0 mm/d).Light precipitation events mainly occurred in the southeast of the study area,and it showed an increasing trend from the northwest to the southeast.Abrupt changes in light precipitation primarily occurred in the 1980 s.A comprehensive time series analysis using the Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet was performed to characterize the abrupt changes and cycles of light precipitation.During the study period,the main periods of light precipitation corresponded to the 6 yr cycle,with obvious periodic oscillation characteristics,and this cycle coexisted with cycles of other scales.Significant correlations were observed between the amount of light precipitation and temperature over the study area.The findings will enhance our understanding of changes in light precipitation in the TP and provide Scientific basis for the definition of light precipitation in the future.     

基于CMIP6的中国未来高温危险性变化评估

评估高温灾害的危险性变化,能够为区域高温灾害风险管理和制定减灾措施提供决策依据。本研究选取高温日数、最高温度和平均高温强度3个指标,基于1961—2020年中国2517个气象站点日最高温数据和CMIP6情景模式比较计划中SSP2-4.5情景下12个气候模式提供的2031—2099年未来气候预测数据集,用核密度概率估计方法计算了4个重现期（即5、10、20和50年）下3个指标的取值,对中国未来高温危险性变化进行了评估。结果表明：① 在SSP2.4-5情景下,中国的高温日数呈现出4个危险中心,分别是：西北干旱（半干旱）地区中部、华北和华中地区的交汇区域、西南地区中部和华南地区南部,并且高温日数从这4个中心向外逐渐减少;最高温度在空间上的分布北部大于南部,东部大于西部。平均高温强度的分布则呈现出从华北地区南部、西北干旱（半干旱）地区西部和东部地区西部向我国除青藏高原地区外的其它地区减少的趋势; ② 在SSP2.4-5情景下,随着重现期年限的增长,中国地区3个高温指标均呈增长趋势且增幅较大,并且高值范围也在不断扩大;③ 3个高温指标变化值均呈现出了明显的空间聚集性,3个指标共同显示的热点区域包括西南地区北部和南部、西北干旱（半干旱）地区中部和华北、华中地区的少部分区域,这些地区发生高温灾害的可能最大,同时根据高温日数变化和最高温度变化,东部地区西部发生高温灾害可能也较大,3个指标共同显示的冷点区域包括青藏高原地区东南部、西北干旱（半干旱）地区的西部和我国东南沿海地区,这些地区几乎不会发生高温危险。     

30年来蒙古国和内蒙古的LUCC区域分异

本文以欧空局300m土地覆盖数据集为基础,参考20世纪70年代至2005年2期蒙古高原遥感影像,建立20世纪70年代、2005年2期土地利用及动态数据库,结合土地利用变化数量模型,分析了蒙古国与内蒙古的土地利用类型转换情况。对比分析蒙古国和内蒙古近30年来的土地利用变化强度及各地类间的转移变化,揭示2个区域的LUCC分异规律,并对土地变化的驱动力进行分析。结果显示:在自然条件及人类扰动共同作用下,蒙古国及内蒙古均表现出草地面积逐年减少,草地退化趋势明显;裸地面积不断增加,沙漠化现象严重;农田及城镇建设用地面积持续增长;水域面积呈现衰减;未利用地是其他各种土地利用类型增加的主要来源;由于人类扰动差异,蒙古国林地面积略有减少,内蒙古林地面积大幅增加。气候干暖化、人口增长,政策及社会经济发展等是驱动蒙古高原土地利用变化的主要因素。     

基于NSIDC海冰产品的FY北极海冰数据集优化

北极海冰对全球气候起着非常重要的调制作用,海冰范围是海冰监测的基本参数。近40年,北极地区持续变暖,北极海冰显著减少,进而引发北极自然环境恶化、北半球极端天气频发、全球海平面上升等一系列环境和气候问题。准确获取北极海冰范围及其演变趋势,确定海冰变化对全球气候系统的响应,是研究和预测全球气候变化趋势的关键之一。HasISST和OISST海冰数据集在海冰监测中应用最为广泛,可为北极地区长时间序列海冰变化研究提供基础数据,但这2套数据集空间分辨率相对较低,应用于北极关键区对中国气候响应研究方面存在很大的局限,为解决这一问题和弥补国内海冰监测微波遥感数据的空白,2011年6月27日,国家卫星气象中心（National Satellite Meteorological Center, NSMC）发布了FY（Fengyun, FY）北极海冰数据集,该数据集利用搭载在FY卫星上的微波成像仪（Microwave Radiation Imager, MWRI）数据,使用Enhance NASA Team算法制作,该算法利用前向辐射传输模型模拟北极地区4种海表类型（海水、新生冰、一年冰和多年冰）在不同大气条件下MWRI辐射亮温,进而得到每种大气条件下0~100%的海冰覆盖度查找表（海冰覆盖度每次增加1%）,通过观测值与模拟值的比对得到海冰覆盖度,由该数据集计算得到的北极海冰范围在大部分区域与实际情况相符。该产品虽已进行通道间匹配误差修正和定位精度偏差订正,但由于其搭载的微波成像仪（Microwave Radiation Imager, MWRI）天线长度有限,造成传感器探测到的地物回波信号相对较弱,难以区分海冰和近岸附近的陆地,影响了该数据集的精度和应用。为解决这一问题,本文基于美国冰雪中心（National Snow and Ice Data Center, NSIDC）发布的海冰产品对FY海冰数据集进行优化,NSIDC产品利用判断矩阵对海岸线附近的像元进行识别,并对误差像元进行不同程度的修正,由NSIDC产品计算得到的北极海冰范围与实际情况更为符合。数据集优化大大提高了FY海冰数据集的精度,研究结果表明,优化后FY海冰数据集与NSIDC产品相关系数高达0.9997,且二者日、月、年平均最大海冰范围偏差仅为3.5%、1.9%、0.9%,且FY海冰数据集优化过程对其较好的空间分异特征无明显影响。该数据集可正确地反映北极海冰范围及其变化情况,且海岸线附近海冰的分布情况更准确,可为北极海冰变化研究提供可靠的基础数据。     

青藏高原湖泊面积动态监测

高原湖泊的动态变化对区域水循环具有重要影响。受全球气候变化的影响,青藏高原湖泊自20世纪90年代开始呈现剧烈扩张趋势。为揭示近年来青藏高原湖泊面积的时空变化规律,本文提出了一种改进的半自动湖泊提取算法,结合环境减灾卫星（HJ-1A/1B）和Landsat系列卫星影像数据,对青藏高原内流流域中面积大于50 km²的127个湖泊进行了连续6年的动态监测,并分析了该区域2009-2014年湖泊面积时空变化特征。研究结果表明,该区域湖泊整体呈现显著扩张趋势,年均变化速率为231.89 km²yr^-1（0.87 %yr^-1）,6年间湖泊面积扩张速率有所减缓。其中,扩张湖泊有104个,收缩湖泊有23个,变化速率分别为271.08 km²yr^-1（1.02 % yr^-1）和-39.19 km²yr^-1（-0.15 %yr^-1）。不同区域湖泊面积变化具有明显差异,主要表现为东部及北部大部分区域湖泊扩张,南部地区大部分湖泊面积稳定,萎缩湖泊主要分布于研究区四周。最后,本文通过分析冰川融水补给对湖泊面积变化的影响,发现存在冰川融水补给的湖泊面积变化率远大于不存在冰川融水补给的湖泊。由此可见,近年来冰川融水的增加是促进青藏高原内流流域湖泊扩张的主要因素之一。     

青藏高原冬季降水时空分布特征研究

青藏高原冬季降水的气候特征认识对高原冬季雪灾的防御有着重要意义。基于青藏高原54个气象站1971~2010年冬季(12~2月)逐月降水量资料,利用现代统计方法分析了青藏高原冬季降水的时空分布特征及突变现象,利用经验正交函数(EOF)和旋转经验正交函数(REOF)概括出高原冬季降水的6种主要空间分布型以及区域性特征进行分析。结果表明:冬季降水分布不均匀,偏东偏南部降水量相对较多,冬季降水在12月最少,2月最多;EOF对青藏高原地区冬季降水分解为6种模态,全区一致型、南北部型、东西部型、川西型、高原腹地型和西部型模态;EOF第1模态时间系数表明高原大部分地区冬季降水在20世纪90年代有显著增加、且存在14年左右的周期变化特征。REOF分析表明,高原地区冬季降水的局地特征显著,而高原腹地与中东部地区变化特征显示了高原冬季降水的主要变化特征,与EOF分析第1模态的变化特征较为一致。     

Status of the Recent Declining of Arctic Sea Ice Studies

In the past 30 years, a large-scale change occurred in the Arctic climatic system, which had never been observed before 1980s. At the same time, the Arctic sea ice experienced a special evolution with more and more rapidly dramatic declining. In this circumstance, the Arctic sea ice became a new focus of the Arctic research. The recent advancements about abrupt change of the Arctic sea ice are reviewed in this paper .The previous analyses have demonstrated the accelerated declining trend of Arctic sea ice extent in the past 30 years, based on in-situ and satellite-based observations of atmosphere, as well as the results of global and regional climate simulations. Especially in summer, the rate of decrease for the ice extents was above 10% per decade. In present paper, the evolution characteristics of the arctic sea ice and its possible cause are discussed in three aspects, i.e. the sea ice physical properties, the interaction process of sea ice, ocean and atmosphere and its response and feedback mechanism to global and arctic climate system.     

1982-2006年中国5-9月的NDVI变化与人类活动影响分析

植被是联系陆地、大气和生态系统的自然纽带,其随着气候和人类活动而发生变化,因此,研究它的突变和变化趋势具有重要意义。本文利用3年滑动t检验、Mann-Kendall检验(MK检验)和距平分析法,研究了中国1982-2006年5-9月平均的NDVI(NOAA/AVHRR GIMMS)突变和变化趋势及其主要原因。3年滑动t检验和MK检验表明,1998年华东地区的NDVI出现了突变,而东北地区和青藏高原NDVI没有出现突变。NDVI变化趋势的分析表明,1982-1998年华东地区NDVI为较平稳的趋势,1998年出现突变后,1998-2006年转为明显下降的趋势(以1998年为转折点)。因此,华东地区NDVI存在明显的变化趋势。NDVI突变和变化趋势的成因分析表明,20世纪90年代后期至21世纪初,随着华东地区大规模的城市化建设和房地产的过度开发,导致耕地面积减少,华东地区植被1998年出现了突变,并从偏多转为明显偏少的趋势,而卫星仪器和气候因子并非是导致该地植被出现突变和变化趋势的主要原因。     

Land use changes in Northeast China driven by human activities and climatic variation

Human-induced land use/cover change (LUCC) forms an important component of global environmental change. Therefore, it is important to study land use/cover and its change at local, regional and global scales. In this paper we conducted the study of land use change in Northeast China, one of the most important agricultural zones of the nation. From 1986 to 2000, according to the study results obtained from Landsat images, widespread changes in land use/cover took place in the study area. Grassland, marsh, water body and woodland decreased by 9864, 3973, 1367 and 10,052km², respectively. By comparison, paddy field, dry farmland, and built-up land expanded by 7339, 17193 and 700km², respectively. Those changes bore an interactive relationship with the environment, especially climate change. On the one hand, climate warming created a potential environment for grassland and marsh to be changed to farmland as more crops could thrive in the warmer climate, and for dry farmland to paddy field. On the other hand, the changed surface cover modified the local climate. Those changes, in turn, have adversely influenced the local environment by accelerating land degradation. In terms of socio-economic driving forces, population augment, regional economic development, and national and provincial policies were confirmed as main driving factors for land use change. Foundation item: Under the auspices of the Knowledge Innovation Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-YW-341), National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40871187, 40801208)     

阿拉善地块南缘构造活动特征与青藏高原东北缘向外扩展的最新边界

青藏高原向北东方向扩展的方式及最新扩展边界的位置,是目前青藏高原东北缘构造变形研究的热点。基于近年来对阿拉善地块南缘及邻区活动构造运动特征调查和定量研究结果,重点总结了阿拉善地块南缘活动断裂几何图像及运动特征,指出以前普遍认为的稳定阿拉善地块内部在新生代晚期发育了一系列规模不等、运动性质各异的活动断裂,这些活动断裂是青藏高原向外扩展过程中新生或先存断裂复活的结果,断裂对区域地貌的控制作用形成了阿拉善地块南缘的地貌和构造边界。综合新生代变形、构造地貌、低温年代学、大地测量与现代地震活动等资料和研究结果,认为青藏高原东北缘新生代中晚期以来发生了有序的向外扩展,形成了两个有重要意义的扩展边界:一是在10 Ma左右形成的以祁连山北缘断裂为主要边界控制构造的、完整清晰的青藏高原东北缘地貌及构造边界;二是在新生代晚期3~2 Ma形成的阿拉善地块南缘与祁连山北缘断裂近平行展布的、主要由逆冲断裂所组成的青藏高原扩展最新边界。在现今构造、地貌格局中,阿拉善地块南缘已成为青藏高原东北缘最新的组成部分。     

Advance in Application of Regional Climate Models in China

Regional climate models have become the powerful tools for simulating regional climate and its change process and have been widely used in China. Using regional climate models, some research results have been obtained on the following aspects： 1） the numerical simulation of East Asian monsoon climate, including exceptional monsoon precipitation, summer precipitation distribution, East Asian circulation, multi-year climate average condition, summer rain belt and so on; 2） the simulation of arid climate of the western China, including thermal effect of the Qinghal-Tibet Plateau, the plateau precipitation in the Qilian Mountains; and the impacts of greenhouse effects （CO2 doubling） upon climate in the western China; and 3） the simulation of the climate effect of underlying surface changes, including the effect of soil on climate formation, the influence of terrain on precipitation, the effect of regional soil degradation on regional climate, the effect of various underlying surfaces on regional climate, the effect of land-sea contrast on the climate formulation, the influence of snow cover over the plateau regions on the regional climate, the effect of vegetation changes on the regional climate, etc. In the process of application of regional climate models, the preferences of the models are improved so that better simulation results are gotten. At last, some suggestions are made about the application of regional climate models in regional climate research in the future.     

Relationship between Antarctic sea ice and the climate in summer of China

The variations of sea ice are different in different regions in Antarctica, thus have different impacts on local atmospheric circulation and global climatic system. The relationships between the sea ice in Ross Sea and Weddell Sea regions and the synoptic climate in summer of China are investigated in this paper via diagnostic analysis methods by using global sea ice concentration gridded data covering Jan. 1968 through Dec. 2002 obtained from Hadley Center, combined with Geopotential Height on 500hPa and 100hPa over North Hemisphere and monthly precipitation and air temperatures data covering the corresponding period over 160 meteorological stations in China obtained from CMA （ China Meteorological Administration）. Results disclose that both these two regions are of indicative meanings to the climate in summer of China. The Ross Sea Region is the key sea ice region to the precipitation in Northeast China in summer. More sea ice in this region in September will result in less precipitation in Northeast China in the following June. Weddell Sea Region is the key sea ice region to the air temperature in Northeast China in summer. More sea ice in this region in September will contribute to lower air temperature in Northeast China in the following June.     

Atmospheric Methane in Ice Cores

The reconstruction of air trapped in ice cores provides us the most direct information about atmospheric CH4 variations in the past history. Ice core records from the ＂Three Poles （Antarctica, Greenland and Tibetan Plateau）＂ reveal the detailed fluctuations of atmospheric CH4 concentration with time and are allowed to quantify the CH4 differences among latitudes. These data are indispensably in the farther study of the relationship between greenhouse gases and climatic change, and of the past changes in terrestrial CH4 emissions. Ice cores reconstruction indicates that atmospheric CH4 concentration has increased quickly since industrialization, and the present day＇s level of atmospheric CH4 （1800 ppby） is unprecedented during the past Glacial-Interglacial climate cycles.     

Review of China's scientific research progress in polar meteorology in the last 30 years

The Antarctic and Arctic are sensitive to global climate change; therefore, they are key regions of global climate change research. This paper, the progress in scientific investigations and research regarding the atmosphere in the polar regions over the last 30 years by Chinese scientists is summarized. Primary understanding of the relationship between the polar regions and global change, especially, the variations in time and space in the Antarctic and Arctic regions with respect to climate change is indicated. Operational weather forecasts for investigation of the polar regions have also been established. Moreover, changes in sea ice and their impact on the atmosphere of polar regions have been diagnosed and simulated. Parameterization of the atmospheric boundary layer of different underlying layers and changes in the atmospheric ozone in the polar region has also been experimented. Overall, there has been great progress in studies of the possible impact of changes in the atmospheric environment of polar regions on circulation in East Asia and the climate of China.