The quaternary volcanic rocks of the Geghama highland, Lesser Caucasus, Armenia: Geochronology, isotopic Sr-Nd characteristics, and origin

This paper reports on isotope-geochronologic, petrologic, and isotope-geochemical (Sr-Nd) studies of Quaternary magmatism in the Geghama neovolcanic area, Armenia, Lesser Caucasus. According to these studies, the period of youngest volcanic activity in the region lasted about 700 000 years, from 700 ka to a few tens of thousands of years ago. We found the time limits of five discrete phases of Quaternary volcanism: I (about 700 ka), II (550?480 ka), III (190?150 ka), IV (110?70 ka), and V (later than 50 ka). These phases seem to have lasted a few tens of thousands of years and were separated by quiescent periods of comparable durations. The petrologic and isotope-geochemical characteristics of Geghama effusive rocks show that they belong to the bimodal association rhyolite-trachyandesite and basaltic trachyandesite; this association was largely generated by fractional crystallization of primary basite melts, with the assimilation of crustal material by deep magmas being much less important. The isotopic parameters of the volcanic rocks studied here (0.70410–0.70437 for ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and +3.3 to +4.0 for ?_Nd) are practically identical for intermediate to basic and acid varieties in this association and are similar to those for young basites in the other areas of the Lesser Caucasus; this circumstance indicates a common origin for all Quaternary magmatic formations in the region. The petrogenesis of these varieties probably involved a single mantle source of the OIB type with certain regional peculiarities in the composition of the melts it generated. An analysis of the locations of Quaternary volcanoes in central Armenia (Geghama and Aragats areas) and in the Kars plateau, which is adjacent to it in the west, provided evidence of an eastward lateral migration of youngest magmatic activity in the region over time. The latest episodes of this migration took place in the eastern Geghama area, which must be the first to produce eruptions in the future.     

Study on relationship between historical volcanic eruptions and historical strong earthquakes in China and its adjacent regions

This thesis lists and describes 6 pairs of tectonic events, i.e., historical volcanic eruptions associated with historical strong earthquakes, based on the analysis for the records of historical volcanic eruptions and historical strong earthquakes in China and its adjacent region since the first record. And discusses the relationship between historical eruptions and strong earthquakes by means of analyzing the characteristics of tectonic events themselves, plate movement, regional seismicity, and regional stress environment in China and its adjacent region.     

长白山天池火山潜在喷发危险性讨论

根据吉林省新生代以来火山喷溢活动的时空演化历史，特别是全新世以来火山活动频民强度变化特征，以及现代喷发活动史记资料，结合１０多年火山动态观测数据，讨论了长白山天池潜在喷发的危险程度，认为其灾害性潜在喷发危险的时间尺度仍属于地质范畴。     

2017年全球活动火山时空分布以及阿贡火山喷发前后的形变特征

归纳总结2017年度全球81座活火山的活动情况,共计活动1058座次,平均每周记录20座活火山的活动信息。根据火山潜在喷发的危险性和火山活动的强弱程度对上述火山进行分级描述,火山活动主要反映了地球表层的构造活动,其中大角度俯冲带的弧后火山最为强烈,小角度的俯冲带、拉张裂谷和走滑为主的板块边界火山活动较为平静,火山活动频繁的印度尼西亚岛链是受灾最为严重的区域。预计全球火山活动将进一步加剧,印尼岛链受火山灾害威胁的程度依然较大。位于印尼岛链巴厘岛上的阿贡火山自2017年9月开始活动以来,整个喷发过程极具代表性,监测阿贡火山喷发过程可为全球典型火山喷发事件研究提供参考。     

Pn velocities beneath Iran

In active tectonic areas like Iran, where the coverage of seismograph stations is inadequate but earthquakes occur frequently, uppermost mantle body wave velocities are conventionally determined by using a single station and an array of earthquake sources. This method fails when earthquakes are mislocated or source areas have varied structures. An extension of the traditional surface wave two-station method is developed for body waves and shown to be independent of mislocation errors. It thus gives accurate estimates of body wave velocities along two station paths with greatly reduced errors.Uppermost mantle P wave (P_n) velocities are determined along several paths in Iran using this method and show zones of low-velocity corresponding to zones of high attenuation and Quaternary volcanic activity in the country. A remarkably high P_n velocity of 8.30 km/s is found for the Zagros area of western Iran more typical of shield like structures than that of tectonic areas.     

A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series for volcanic hazard estimations: Applications to active polygenetic volcanoes

The probabilistic analysis of volcanic eruption time series is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk. Such series describe complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series is proposed for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions. The first step of the analysis is to characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes. As is the case in most natural phenomena, lower magnitude events are more frequent, and the behavior of the eruption series may be biased by such events. On the other hand, eruptive series are commonly studied using conventional statistics and treated as homogeneous Poisson processes. However, time-dependent series, or sequences including rare or extreme events, represented by very few data of large eruptions require special methods of analysis, such as the extreme-value theory applied to non-homogeneous Poisson processes. Here we propose a general methodology for analyzing such processes attempting to obtain better estimates of the volcanic hazard. This is done in three steps: Firstly, the historical eruptive series is complemented with the available geological eruption data. The linking of these series is done assuming an inverse relationship between the eruption magnitudes and the occurrence rate of each magnitude class. Secondly, we perform a Weibull analysis of the distribution of repose time between successive eruptions. Thirdly, the linked eruption series are analyzed as a non-homogeneous Poisson process with a generalized Pareto distribution as intensity function. As an application, the method is tested on the eruption series of five active polygenetic Mexican volcanoes: Colima, Citlaltépetl, Nevado de Toluca, Popocatépetl and El Chichón, to obtain hazard estimates.     

GPS-based crustal deformations in Azerbaijan and their influence on seismicity and mud volcanism

Using Shen’s method (Shen et al., 1996), deformations of the Earth’s crust in Azerbaijan were studied based on GPS measurements. For estimating the rate of deformation, we used the field of velocity vectors for Azerbaijan, Iran, Georgia, and Armenia that were derived from GPS measurements during 1998–2012. It is established that compression is observable along the Greater Caucasus, in Gobustan, the Kura depression, Nakhchyvan Autonomous Republic, and adjacent areas of Iran. The axes of compression/contraction of the crust in the Greater Caucasus region are oriented in the S-NE direction. The maximum strain rate (approximately 200 × 10^?9 per annum) is documented in the zone of mud volcanism at the SHIK site (Shykhlar), which is marked by a sharp change in the direction of the compression axes (SW-NE). It is revealed that the deformation field also includes the zones where strain rates are very low approximating 5 × 10^?9 per annum. These zones include the Caspian-Guba and northern Gobustan areas, characterized by extensive development of mud volcanism. The extension zones are confined to the Lesser Caucasus and are revealed in the Gedabek (GEDA) and Shusha (SHOU) areas, as well as in the zone located between the DAMO and PIRM sites (Iran), where the deformation rate amounts to 100 × 10^?9 per annum. It is concluded that the predominant factor responsible for the eruption of mud volcanoes is the intensity of gas-generation processes in the earth’s interior, while deformation processes play the role of a trigger. The zone of the epicenters of strong earthquakes is correlated to the gradient zone in the crustal strain rates.     

The geophysical contribution to the safeguard of historical sites in active volcanic areas.: The Vesuvius case-history

The Earth's surface is characterized by the presence of many active volcanoes, most of which are surrounded by ancient villages. High-valued historical sites are often so exposed that it becomes imperative to perform volcanic risk assessment including cultural heritage. For the safeguard of the historical property in volcanic areas, two major problems are definition of (a) criteria for diagnosis and evaluation of hazard and vulnerability, and (b) methods for risk prevention and mitigation. In this paper, we first review the state-of-the-art and most outstanding geophysical prospecting and modeling methods currently on the use, which contribute to the solution of the problems mentioned above. We then show the results of an application on the most alarming volcano in Italy, Mount Vesuvius in the Neapolitan area. The imaged configuration of the feeding and plumbing systems induces to consider Vesuvius a high-risk volcano with a high probability of pyroclastic flow in case of reactivation. Finally, we show the results from a modeling approach of a pyroclastic flow simulating the eruptive scenario of Vesuvius compatible with its internal structure and dynamics. The simulation shows that the emplacement of artificial barriers close to the eruptive vent is a practical solution to reduce the local radial momentum of the pyroclastic flow and to transfer the related energy to the vertical buoyant cloud. The Vesuvius case history allows us to conclude that the integrated geophysical surveying and modeling approach can notably contribute to make decisions and also for the protection of the historical heritage in active volcanic areas.     

Upper crustal P-wave velocity structure beneath two volcanic areas in northern Iran

Detailed information about the crustal structure is essential for better understanding the occurrence and mechanisms of earthquakes and volcanoes. Here we present a study of the upper crustal P-wave velocity structure of two seismically and volcanically active areas in northern Iran using the two-dimensional Pg travel time tomography method. The imaging results suggest low velocities in the upper crust beneath the Damavand and Sahand-Sabalan volcanic areas in the central and western parts of northern Iran, respectively. The upper crustal low velocities in these two areas roughly coincide with previously imaged low Pn velocity anomalies, suggesting that the Late Cenozoic volcanic activity was probably caused by the upwelling of hot materials from the mantle. The image feature of the Pg velocity structure beneath the Sahand-Sabalan volcanic area further indicates that the hot materials stored in the upper crust beneath Sahand may be larger in size than those stored beneath Sabalan. Comparison of the Pg velocity images with the earthquake distribution in north Iran suggests that earthquakes mainly occur at moderately low velocity or low to high velocity boundary areas instead of significantly low or high velocity regions. The anisotropy results show that the Pg wave fast direction is consistent with the GPS direction at high Pg velocity areas and the fast direction is inconsistent with the GPS direction but consistent with the strike direction of faults at low velocity areas. Our new upper crustal structural images provide the basic observation for better understanding of the regional seismicity and volcanism, and link the surface geological phenomena to deep crustal and mantle processes associated with the active tectonics in northern Iran.     

Neogene and quaternary volcanism of the Bijar Area (Western Iran)

In the Bijar region (Western Iran) two distinct volcanic cycles have been recognized. The first, of Upper Miocene age, consists of high-K cale-alkaline volcanic rocks interpreted as final products of the cale-alkaline Tertiary phase of central Iran. The second volcanic cycle, mostly of Pleistocene age (0.5–1.3 m.v.) consists of undersaturated, mainly potassic, alkaline products. As the lavas of this last phase are slightly fractionated, the chemical differences shown by these rocks have been interpreted as primitive features related to the physical conditions governing the partial melting in the mantle and/or the mantle heterogeneity. In a volcanic center (Sarajukh volcano) contemporaneous basic and acid magmas have been found, and interpreted as derived from two different and independent sources. The alkaline basic volcanism is considered as an expression of disjunctive processes that have affected the western margin of the Iranian plate after the Pliocene.     

Earthquake Monitoring and Study in the Jingpohu Volcano Cluster Area

Seismicity in the Jingpohu volcanic area was investigated based on the seismic data recorded by the mobile seismic network consisting of 14 stations equipped with 24-bit broad-band 3- component seismographs around Crater Forest, Results show that there appears certain seismicity in Jingpohu and its adjacent areas with a low activity level and most of the recorded earthquakes are the volcanic-tectonic ones, The results of location indicate a dominant focal depth of 10km - 30kin, most of the earthquakes are smaller than ML2,0, and are concentrated in the area of ＂ Crater Forest＂ and on the Dunhua-Mishan fault which runs through the volcanic area. At station No. 2, which has better observation conditions, two types of events, likely associated to volcanism, were recorded; their waveform characteristics are somewhat similar to that of the long-period volcanic event and the volcanic tremor, but with different feature of frequencies.     

Volcanic history of the Island of Ischia (South Italy)

New K-Ar dates on Ischia volcanic rocks are reported in order to reconstruct the temporal evolution of volcanic activity and to estimate the rate of associated energy release. The most probable age of eruption of the « green tuff » pumice flows forming the horst in the central part of the island is 0.74 (±0.09) m.y. The formation of the horst occurred in the time span 0.7–0.3 m.y. The subsequent volcanic activity was episodic. The oldest formations (0.37–0.31 m.y.) were formed by lava lake activity with small energy content, whereas formations younger than 0.1 m.y. were formed by eruptions characterized by higher explosivity and energetic content. No ages in the interval 0.31 (±0.02) ?0.10 (±0.07) have been found. Geological considerations also suggest that volcanic activity was very weak or absent in Ischia during this time interval. The different energies and characteristics of the eruption at Ischia in relation to the tectonic pattern are used to evaluate the volcanic risk for the island.     

Spatial changes in volcanic and seismic activity prior to great earthquakes

Spatial relationship between volcanism and seismicity prior to the occurrence of several great interplate earthquakes in the circum Pacific area has been examined in order to understand the process of underthrusting in detail. The locations of the epicenters of the great earthquakes have been examined in terms of locations of concentrated volcanic and seismic activity in a short time period in order to determine if there is any relationship between these activities, and whether such relationships can be used to refine the underthrusting model. The study shows that in most cases, (1) there is no volcanic activity in the vicinity of the epicenter of the great earthquake and (2) maximum volcanic activity is localized, i.e., volcanoes adjacent to one another exhibit considerable activity in a short time period. Very little systematic spatial relationship between these three parameters is observed although in most cases, there is no volcanic activity at the time of maximum earthquake activity. Locations of active volcanoes and earthquake activity, during the five years prior to the occurrence of the great earthquake, do not appear to be a guide to the epicenter of the great earthquake. This study therefore suggests that although there is temporal relationship between the occurrence of maximum volcanic and seismic activity and the occurrence of great earthquake, there appears to be no systematic spatial relationship between these three parameters.     

Bayesian event tree for eruption forecasting (BET_EF) at Vesuvius,Italy: a retrospective forward application to the 1631 eruption

Reliable forecasting of the next eruption at Vesuvius is the main scientific factor in defining effective strategies to reduce volcanic risk in one of the most dangerous volcanic areas of the world. In this paper, we apply a recently developed probabilistic code for eruption forecasting to new and independent historical data related to the pre-eruptive phase of the 1631 eruption. The results obtained point out three main issues: (1) the importance of “cold” historical data (according to Guidoboni 2008) related to pre-eruptive phases for evaluating forecasting tools and possibly refining them; (2) the BET_EF code implemented for Vesuvius would have forecasted the 1631 eruption satisfactorily, marking different stages of the pre-eruptive phase; (3) the code shows that pre-eruptive signals that significantly increase the probability of eruption were likely detected more than 2 months before the event.     

Compositional characteristics and geodynamic significance of late Miocene volcanic rocks associated with the Chah Zard epithermal gold–silver deposit,southwest Yazd,Iran

Whole‐rock geochemical and Sr–Nd isotopic data are presented for late Miocene volcanic rocks associated with the Chah Zard epithermal Au–Ag deposit in the Urumieh‐Dokhtar Magmatic Arc (UDMA), Iran, to investigate the magma source, petrogenesis and the geodynamic evolution of the study area. The Chah Zard andesitic to rhyolitic volcanic rocks are characterized by significant Large Ion Lithophile Element (LILE) and Light Rare Earth Element (LREE) enrichment coupled with High Field Strength Element (HFSE) depletion. Our geochemical data indicate an adakitic‐like signature for the volcanic rocks (e.g. SiO₂ > 62 wt%, Al₂O₃ > 15 wt%, MgO < 1.5 wt%, Sr/Y > 70, La/Yb > 35, Yb < 1 ppm, and Y < 18 ppm, and no significant Eu anomalies), distinguishing them from the other volcanic rocks of the UDMA. The Chah Zard volcanic rocks have similar Sr and Nd isotopic compositions; the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr(i) ratios range from 0.704 902 to 0.705 093 and the ε_Nd(i) values are from +2.33 to +2.70. However, the rhyolite porphyry represents the final stage of magmatism in the area and has a relatively high ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio (0.705 811). Our data suggest that the andesitic magmas are from a heterogeneous source and likely to result from partial melting of a metasomatized mantle wedge associated with a mixture of subducted oceanic crust and sediment. These melts subsequently underwent fractional crystallization along with minor amounts of crustal assimilation. Our study is consistent with the model that the volcanic host rocks to epithermal gold mineralization in the UDMA are genetically related to late Miocene Neo‐Tethyan slab break‐off beneath Central Iran.     

On the development of a seismic source zonation model for seismic hazard assessment in western Saudi Arabia

A new seismic source model has been developed for the western part of the Arabian Peninsula, which has experienced considerable earthquake activity in the historical past and in recent times. The data used for the model include an up-to-date seismic catalog, results of recent studies of Cenozoic faulting in the area, aeromagnetic anomaly and gravity maps, geological maps, and miscellaneous information on volcanic activity. The model includes 18 zones ranging along the Red Sea and the Arabian Peninsula from the Gulf of Aqaba and the Dead Sea in the north to the Gulf of Aden in the south. The seismic source model developed in this study may be considered as one of the basic branches in a logic tree approach for seismic hazard assessment in Saudi Arabia and adjacent territories.     

青海省湟水盆地历史地震调查及研究

通过对青海省湟水盆地影响较大的5次破坏性历史地震的重新考证，确定了每次地震的宏观震中、震级大小、发震断层以及地震等震线，从而得出盆地东部一平安至民和块体及其周边地区，基底介质强度较弱，为中强地震活动水平较高的危险地区。     

Relationship between earthquake and volcanic eruption inferred from historical records

Introduction From the records of Wudalianchi volcanic group eruption in 1720~1721 obtained from the Man ethnic group files of Heilongjiang General Yamen in Qing Dynasty (WU, 1998; CHEN, WU, 2003), we have discovered the eruption time, state, material and scale of Laoheishan and Hu-oshaoshan volcanoes, as well as numerous seismic records. These historical materials are discov-ered for the first time although the study on Wudalianchi volcanic group has a long history. These earthquakes co…