1949—2020年山东省风暴潮灾害时空分布特征分析

利用1949-2020年山东省风暴潮灾害资料,分析了山东省风暴潮灾害时空分布特征。结果表明:1949-2020年山东省共发生有详细记录的风暴潮灾害54次,从时间分布来看,4月是风暴潮造成死亡(含失踪)人口最多的月份,8月是发生风暴潮次数最多,造成直接经济损失最重的月份。从空间分布来看,潍坊市发生风暴潮灾害次数最多,日照市发生台风风暴潮次数最多,死亡(含失踪)人口数最多,烟台市直接经济损失最重。整体上,山东省风暴潮灾害发生次数有增加趋势,死亡(含失踪)人口呈现下降趋势,灾害造成的直接经济损失存在高低振荡趋势,灾害风险仍不容忽视。分析结果可为沿海各地市开展针对性风暴潮灾害防御工作提供科学依据。     

渤海风暴潮的危害及防御措施

近年来,渤海风暴潮对该海域沿海地区造成了巨大损失和人员伤亡。相关文献统计了近20年来渤海风暴潮发生的时间、地点、损失和人员伤亡数据,分析了风暴潮灾害的强度、次数和时空分布及其与灾害损失的相关关系。结果表明,渤海灾难性的风暴潮主要集中在夏秋季节,且平均每4年发生1次,造成的损失较大;小型风暴潮每年都有且发生时间不确定,平均每年1-2次,一般不会造成大的损失和人员伤亡。风暴潮没有特别固定的线性规律,对风暴潮最主要的措施应是以防御为主。     

福建省风暴潮时空分布特征分析

分析20世纪50年代以来福建省7个有代表性验潮站的近700站次台风风暴潮过程,利用建立的风暴潮评价指标,对福建省风暴潮的时空分布特征开展研究。结果表明:福建省风暴潮主要出现在7月至10月,其中以8月最多,9月次之;风暴潮灾害主要发生8月和9月,以9月居多。各级风暴潮中,增水为50~100 cm的风暴潮次数约占70%,沿海各区域中,风暴潮频发区和严重区为闽江口,风暴潮次数明显偏多、偏强;风暴潮灾害频发区为闽江口,风暴潮灾害严重区则依次为闽江口和宁德区域。1954-2008年间,风暴潮发生次数总体呈现上升趋势;风暴潮灾害呈较明显的上升趋势。     

风暴潮灾害经济损失评估方法研究

本文分析了风暴潮强度与直接经济损失或灾害的关系,建立了评估风暴潮灾害损失的近似模式。     

海洋风暴潮——中华民族的心腹之患

论及中华民族的心腹之患,人们自然地想到千百年来给中国黎民百姓造成深重灾难的大江、大河的洪水灾害。然而,从灾害的强度、造成的人员伤亡和社会经济损失来说,海洋风暴潮酿成的海岸洪水亦当属中华民族的心腹之患。 1 我国海洋风暴潮的概况 在西北太平洋沿岸国家中,中国是受台风袭击最严重的国家之一。据40年(1949～     

我国风暴潮灾害及防灾减灾战略

本文在分析了1949-1997的风暴潮及其重大灾害事件后指出，从上世纪九十年代以来，我国风暴潮灾害的经济损失已呈显著上升的趋势，减轻重大台风风暴潮灾害所造成的经济损失，已成为我国风暴潮减灾工作的当务之急。为此提出了减轻重大风暴潮灾害的战略要点：（1）充分利用一切媒体使人民具有预防重大风暴潮灾害的意识；（2）加强对重大风暴潮及其灾害的科研工作；（3）修订全国沿海岸段的防潮工程规划；（4）制订海洋减灾法规和有关规范；（5）建立风暴减灾保险的机制。     

2007年《中国海洋灾害公报》发布

国家海洋局2008年1月15日发布了2007年《中国海洋灾害公报》（以下简称“公报”）。公报显示，2007年我国共发生风暴潮、海浪、海冰、赤潮和海啸等海洋灾害163次，造成直接经济损失88．37亿元。2007年全年共发生13次台风风暴潮，较上年增加了4次，其中7次造成灾害，受灾严重岸段主要集中在浙江省、厂东省和海南省沿海。发生17次温带风暴潮过程，其中2次造成灾害，受灾严重岸段主要集中在辽宁省、山东省沿海。风暴潮灾害造成直接经济损失为87．15亿元。     

山东沿海的风暴潮灾害及其防御对策研究

山东沿海地区是风暴潮灾害频发区域之一,其中,莱州湾西南部沿岸为我国温带风暴潮最频繁和最严重的地区,历史上曾发生过多次严重的风暴潮灾害。风暴潮灾害已经成为影响乃至制约山东沿海地区经济发展的一个重要因素。文章通过近年来的现场调查并结合历史资料分析,概括性地总结出了山东省沿海风暴潮成因、发生频率和历史风暴潮灾害及其变化规律等,认为随着山东省经济社会的快速发展,风暴潮灾害造成的损失呈逐年增加趋势;在分析了现有防御能力及存在问题等的基础上,结合山东省海洋防灾减灾的实际需要,从工程性和非工程性两个方面提出了具体的防御对策。     

我国南海沿海台风及暴潮灾害趋势分析

利用中国气象局上海台风研究所(CMA)和国家海洋局(SOA)数据资料, 对南海沿海台风活动(1949—2016)和风暴潮灾害趋势(1989—2016)进行了统计分析。结果表明, 南海地区台风年登陆频数整体上呈微弱减少趋势, 但强台风影响及强度呈加强趋势; 1990年代中期台风登陆频数出现显著突变, 粤东地区受高强度台风的影响变得频繁, 粤西地区从2007年开始台风登陆强度逐年增强; 研究区域内台风强度分布一致性较好。文章还总结了典型的热带气旋路径, 分析了不同入射角范围的台风在强度和地区分布上占比的变化规律, 指出近年来中国南海沿海地区年强台风暴潮灾害发生频数增多, 年最大风暴潮等级有增大趋势。     

无人机遥感系统在风暴潮灾害损失评估中的应用初探

无人机遥感系统由于具有响应迅速、起降方便、可低空作业、分辨率高等优点,在自然灾害调查及应急救援中有广泛的应用。文章在台风"苏力"登陆后,利用无人机遥感系统及时获取台风登陆点附近25km~2范围的高分辨遥感影像,通过对遥感影像进行分析处理,提取研究区域典型风暴潮承灾体的灾害损失信息并对其进行统计分析,为风暴潮灾害损失评估提供数据支持;对无人机低空遥感系统在风暴潮灾害调查及灾害损失评估中的应用作初步探索。结果表明,无人机低空遥感系统在风暴潮灾害调查中的应用具有一定的可行性且取得一定成果,但受制约的方面也较多,今后还需结合风暴潮灾害特点作进一步的应用探索。     

Model of the post-Cenozoic evolution of the cryolithozone of the shelf of the western part of the Laptev Sea

The analysis of the structure of the cryolithozone, facies, and thicknesses of the Quaternary sediments and the results of the physicochemical mathematical modeling of the modern shelf of the western part of the Laptev Sea support the influence of the Late Pleistocene glaciations on the heat conditions and the distribution of the permafrost in the area. A ～200-m thick glacier formed under aerial conditions from atmospheric precipitation represented the metamorphosed snow cover. According to the modeling, the long-living (from 60?50 to 10?4 ky) glacier reduced the thickness of the permafrost rocks in the reviewed shelf area for 280–360 m. The Holocene marine transgression additionally decreased the thickness from 50–140 m on the inner shelf to 220–350 m on the outer shelf. The modern submarine cryolithozone 450-0 m thick is wide-spread in the studied region from the coast to the shelf boundary (isobaths of 130–140 m), where it pinches out at a distance of ～380 km from the coast at a depth of ～250 m above the sea level.     

Investigation of the mechanism of the long-term evolution of the carbon cycle in the ecosystem of the Sevastopol bay

We analyze the components of the carbon system of the Sevastopol bay waters and the balance of main sediment-forming substances using the data of field investigations in 1998–2008. The interannual variations of total inorganic carbon and the equilibrium partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the bay water are noted. An increase in the flux of carbon dioxide into the bay and in the content of organic carbon in bottom sediments is revealed, and an explanation of this phenomenon is given. The priority accumulation of organic carbon in the sediments of the bay is established. We assess the interannual variation in the relative abundances of organic and inorganic carbon as an index of the carbon cycle stability.     

Contemporary state of the investigation of the influence of the discharge of rivers on the hydrologic structure of the Black Sea

We generalize and analyze the state of investigations of the influence of river waters on the hydrologic structure of the Black Sea. Specific features of the water, regime and hydrography of rivers flowing into the sea, data on the discharge of rivers, and intrayear and interyear variability of the discharge are presented. We discuss and analyze works studying the transformation of river waters, routes of desalinized sea waters, and their influence on the thermohaline structure and dynamic regime of the sea. Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev     

Modelling of the ecosystem of the Black-Sea shelf zone near the estuary of the Danube

We analyze the results of numerical calculations performed according to the three-dimensional interdisciplinary model of an ecological system of the Black-Sea shelf zone near the estuary of the Danube. The complete system of equations of hydrothermodynamics is solved together with transport equations of the advection-diffusion-reaction type used to describe the transformation of a substance (nitrogen) between the components of the characteristic vectors of the ecosystem: plankton, detritus, and biogenic elements (nitrates). We describe the distinctive features of the circumcontinental distribution of components obtained as a result of numerical experiments and present arguments for the conclusion that the ecosystem of the Danube estuary water area plays the role of a buffer zone between the press of the Danubian biogenic pollutions and the neighbouring areas of the shelf zone and open sea. Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev     

Dynamics of the ice cover and peculiarities of the ice transportation of the sediments at the tidal flats of the Kandalaksha Gulf of the White Sea

Ten years of semistationary studies of the interaction of the ice cover and the coastal relief of the Kandalakhsa Gulf in the White Sea allowed us to reveal the peculiarities of these processes in the warm and cold years and the mechanisms of the origination of ice forms, including ice tents, which govern the character of the tidal flats. Three dynamic fast ice zones are distinguished by their geomorphological location, morphology, and ice dynamics. The dependence of the mechanisms and volumes of the enrichment of the fast ice in the sediments on the coastal zone??s relief was established. At the coast of the Kindo Peninsula (Velikaya Salma Strait), the ice mostly contains fine-sandy sediments. Coarser sediments, including boulders, are occasional and frozen into the ice at the contact of the fast ice and the bottom. At the expense of the ice??s spreading by 4?C6 times in the warm years and 2?C4 times in the cold years, several thousand tons of sediments mostly from the tidal flat??s surface (100?C700 m³ from 1 km of coast in the wide tidal flats and <50 m³ on the steep coasts) are delivered to the water area.     

Relationship between the path of the Kuroshio in the south of Japan and the path of the Kuroshio Extension in the east

A relationship between paths of the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension (KE) is investigated, using the satellite-derived altimetry dataset of 1993–2008. When the Kuroshio takes the nearshore nonlarge meander path or typical large meander path and resultantly goes through the deeper channel (about 2500 m) of the Izu-Ogasawara Ridge, the KE path adopts a relatively stable state with the two quasi-stationary meanders. On the other hand, when the Kuroshio takes the offshore nonlarge meander path and then passes over the shallower part of the Ridge (about 1000 m), the KE path tends to be convoluted, i.e., an unstable state.     

A model of the dynamics of the ecosystem of the Sea of Azov

We use many-year archival observations of hydrologic and hydrobiologic state of the Sea of Azov for the identification of the structure of a model of its ecosystem. The ecosystem model, supplemented with expert estimates of bioresource consumption (fish reserve), contamination level, and possible ecologic fines for violation of the sea natural state, is formalized by the method of system dynamics. Hereat, the major part of influence functions is found in terms of observational data with application of self-organization algorithms. We also present the results of simulated experiments with the model of the ecosystem, which enable us to analyse scenarios of its behaviour under the influence of various external factors (wind, river discharge, water exchange with the Black Sea, etc.). Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev     

On the Relationship between the Characteristics of the Annual Variations of the Virtual Height of the Ionospheric Sporadic E Layer with the Seasonal Rearrangements of the Stratomesospheric Circulation

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - Analysis of the temporal variations of the virtual heights of the sporadic E layer (h?ES) determined from ionograms with increased accuracy (1...     

Parameters of the sediments of the deep-water basin of the Black Sea

The methodology and the first results of the computations of the volumes, masses, and growth rates of the sedimentary body of the buried Black Sea basin are presented. Their temporal evolution reflects the regional paleogeodynamics, in particular, the reorientation of the vector of the relative movement of the Arabian and Eurasian lithospheric plates and the related intensification of their collision in the late Miocene-Pliocene.     

Variability of the nutrient runoff of the rivers of the Arctic Basin

The spatiotemporal variability of the hydrochemical composition of the riverine runoff in nearmouth areas is presented using the example of selected rivers of the Arctic Basin. The temporal dynamics of the riverine nutrient runoff are mainly determined by the seasonal and interseasonal variations in the drainage basins. The spatial variations in the chemical composition of riverine waters in the near-mouth areas are mainly caused by the dynamics of the water flow and the river bed relief and, to a lesser degree, by biochemical processes. It is shown that the variations in the nutrient composition of the waters in near-mouth areas are comparable in magnitude to those at the river-sea geochemical barriers.