西北太平洋低空环流与海温异常关系的季节性差异

通过资料分析与数值模拟研究了西北太平洋低空环流特征及其与海面温度（SST）异常关系的季节性差异,得到如下结论：1）西北太平洋低空环流的空间尺度和位置在春季和夏季存在明显差异,从春季到夏季,异常环流范围缩小且中心位置向西北偏移;2）西北太平洋低空环流与西北太平洋局地海温的相互作用存在季节差异,春季西北太平洋冷海温与上空反气旋异常之间存在相互作用,而夏季则以大气影响海洋为主,异常的反气旋/气旋可以加热/冷却其下垫面的海温,大气超前3～4 d影响海洋;3）夏季异常反气旋环流（WNPAC）的维持主要来自非局地海温异常（北印度洋暖海温与中太平洋冷海温异常）的强迫,这两个海区对WNPAC的影响也存在季节性差异,北印度洋的影响主要体现在晚春至盛夏,而中太平洋则主要在晚夏发挥作用。     

Mechanisms for projected future changes in south Asian monsoon precipitation

Results are first presented from an analysis of a global coupled climate model regarding changes in future mean and variability of south Asian monsoon precipitation due to increased atmospheric CO₂ for doubled (2 × CO₂) and quadrupled (4 × CO₂) present-day amounts. Results from the coupled model show that, in agreement with previous studies, mean area-averaged south Asian monsoon precipitation increases with greater CO₂ concentrations, as does the interannual variability. Mechanisms producing these changes are then examined in a series of AMIP2-style sensitivity experiments using the atmospheric model (taken from the coupled model) run with specified SSTs. Three sets of ensemble experiments are run with SST anomalies superimposed on the AMIP2 SSTs from 1979–97: (1) anomalously warm Indian Ocean SSTs, (2) anomalously warm Pacific Ocean SSTs, and (3) anomalously warm Indian and Pacific Ocean SSTs. Results from these experiments show that the greater mean monsoon precipitation is due to increased moisture source from the warmer Indian Ocean. Increased south Asian monsoon interannual variability is primarily due to warmer Pacific Ocean SSTs with enhanced evaporation variability, with the warmer Indian Ocean SSTs a contributing but secondary factor. That is, for a given interannual tropical Pacific SST fluctuation with warmer mean SSTs in the future climate, there is enhanced evaporation and precipitation variability that is communicated via the Walker Circulation in the atmosphere to the south Asian monsoon to increase interannual precipitation variability there. This enhanced monsoon variability occurs even with no change in interannual SST variability in the tropical Pacific.     

Modulation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the summer precipitation over East China: a comparison of observations to 600-years control run of Bergen Climate Model

Observations show that the summer precipitation over East China often goes through decadal variations of opposite sign over North China and the Yangtze River valley (YRV), such as the “southern flood and northern drought” pattern that occurred during the late 1970s–1990s. In this study it is shown that a modulation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the summer precipitation pattern over East China during the last century is partly responsible for this characteristic precipitation pattern. During positive PDO phases, the warm winter sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern subtropical Pacific along the western coast of North American propagate to the tropics in the following summer due to weakened oceanic meridional circulation and the existence of a coupled wind–evaporation–SST feedback mechanism, resulting in a warming in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (5°N–20°N, 160°W–120°W) in summer. This in turn causes a zonal anomalous circulation over the subtropical–tropical Pacific Ocean that induces a strengthened western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and thus more moisture over the YRV region. The end result of these events is that the summer precipitation is increased over the YRV region while it is decreased over North China. The suggested mechanism is found both in the observations and in a 600-years fully coupled pre-industrial multi-century control simulations with Bergen Climate Model. The intensification of the WPSH due to the warming in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean was also examined in idealized SSTA-forced AGCM experiments.     

Anomalies in the tropics associated with the heavy rainfall in east asia during the summer of 1998

1.IntroductionInthesummerof1998,theYangtzeRiverbasin,includingNenjiangRiverValleyinNortheastChinasufferedaseverelarge--scalefloodonlynexttothatinthesummerof1954inthiscentury.Thefloodcausedapproximatelythedeathof3000individualsandthedirecteconomicdamageof250billionRMByuans(Yan,1998).Thisextremedisasterpromptedaseriesofimmediatestudiesonit(e.g.,Iluangetal.,1998;Taoetal.,1998).TheevolutionoftheEastAsiansupsmermonsoonshowsagreatvariabilityfromyeartoOThisstudywassupportedbytheNationalNatura…     

A dynamic link between the basin-scale and zonal modes in the Tropical Indian Ocean

Summary The interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean is dominated mainly by a basin-scale mode (BM) and partly by an east–west contrast mode (zonal mode, ZM). The BM reflects the basin-scale warming or cooling and is highly correlated with El Nino with 3- to 6-month lags, while the ZM is marginally correlated with El Nino with 9-month lags.During an El Nino, large-scale anomalous subsidence over the maritime continent occurs as a result of an eastward shift in the rising branch of the Walker circulation suppresses convection over the eastern Indian Ocean, allowing more solar radiation over the eastern Indian Ocean. At the same time, the anomalous southeasterly wind over the equatorial Indian Ocean forces the thermocline over the western Indian Ocean to deepen, especially in the southern part. As a result, SST over the whole basin increases. As El Nino decays, the subsidence over the maritime continent ceases and so does the anomalous southeasterly wind. However, the thermocline perturbation does not quickly shoal back to normal because of inertia and it disperses as Rossby waves. These Rossby waves are reflected back as an equatorial Kelvin wave, causing deepening of the thermocline in the eastern Indian Ocean, and preventing SSTs from cooling in that region. Moreover, the weaker wind speed of the monsoon circulation results in less latent heat loss, and thus warms the eastern Indian Ocean. These two processes therefore help to maintain warm SSTs over the eastern Indian Ocean until fall. During the fall, the warm SST over the eastern Indian Ocean and the cold SST over the western Indian Ocean are enhanced by air–sea interaction and the ZM returns. The ZM dissipates through the seasonal reversal of the monsoon atmospheric circulation and the boundary-reflected Kelvin wave. In the same manner, a basin-scale cooling in the tropical Indian Ocean can induce the ZM warming in the west and cooling in the east.     

夏季东亚高空急流与太平洋-日本遥相关型的关系

利用NCEP/NCAR和NOAA月平均资料,采用奇异值分解方法分析了夏季东亚高空纬向风场和西北太平洋海表温度(SST)的耦合关系,并据此研究了东亚副热带高空急流和太平洋-日本(Pacific-Japan,PJ)遥相关型的可能联系。合成分析结果表明,东亚副热带高空急流正模态年,急流偏南偏强,对流层上层南亚高压增强东进,中层西太平洋副热带高压加强西伸,菲律宾周边海域SST升高,中纬度黑潮延伸体区SST降低,菲律宾海和热带西太平洋地区对流活动偏弱,日本海和黑潮延伸体海区对流活动增强,对应PJ遥相关型的负位相;而东亚副热带高空急流负模态年,急流偏北偏弱,对流层上层南亚高压减弱西退,中层西太平洋副热带高压减弱东撤,菲律宾周边SST降低,中纬度黑潮延伸体区SST升高,菲律宾海和热带西太平洋地区对流活动强盛,日本海和黑潮延伸体海区对流活动减弱,对应PJ遥相关型的正位相。由于夏季东亚副热带高空急流活动与PJ遥相关型存在关联,PJ遥相关型可能是东亚副热带高空急流响应太平洋海温异常的纽带。     

Impacts of an improved low-level cloud scheme on the eastern Pacific ITCZ-cold tongue complex

A statistically-based low-level cloud parameterization scheme is introduced, modified, and applied in the Flexible coupled General Circulation Model (FGCM-0). It is found that the low-level cloud scheme makes improved simulations of low-level cloud fractions and net surface shortwave radiation fluxes in the subtropical eastern oceans off western coasts in the model. Accompanying the improvement in the net surface shortwave radiation fluxes, the simulated distribution of SSTs is more reasonably asymmetrical about the equator in the tropical eastern Pacific, which suppresses, to some extent, the development of the double ITCZ in the model. Warm SST biases in the ITCZ north of the equator are more realistically reduced, too. But the equatorial cold tongue is strengthened and extends further westward, which reduces the precipitation rate in the western equatorial Pacific but increases it in the ITCZ north of the equator in the far eastern Pacific. It is demonstrated that the low-level cloud-radiation feedback would enhance the cooperative feedback between the equatorial cold tongue and the ITCZ. Based on surface layer heat budget analyses, it is demonstrated that the reduction of SSTs is attributed to both the thermodynamic cooling process modified by the increase of cloud fractions and the oceanic dynamical cooling processes associated with the strengthened surface wind in the eastern equatorial Pacific, but it is mainly attributed to oceanic dynamical cooling processes associated with the strengthening of surface wind in the central and western equatorial Pacific.     

海表温度异常影响东亚夏季风年代际变化的数值模拟

采用1950-2000年逐月观测的不同海域(全球、热带外、热带、热带印度洋-太平洋、热带印度洋及热带太平洋)海表温度分别驱动NCAR CAM3全球大气环流模式,进行了多组长时间积分试验,对比ERA-40和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,讨论了这些海域海表温度异常对东亚夏季风年代际变化的影响。数值试验结果表明:全球、热带、热带印度洋-太平洋和热带太平洋海表温度变化对东亚夏季风的年代际变化具有重要作用,均模拟出了东亚夏季风在20世纪70年代中后期发生的年代际减弱现象,以及强、弱夏季风年代夏季大气环流异常分布的显著不同,这与观测结果较一致,表明热带太平洋是影响东亚夏季风此次年代际变化的关键海区;利用热带印度洋海表温度驱动模式模拟出的东亚夏季风在20世纪70年代中后期发生年代际增强现象,即当热带印度洋海表温度年代际偏暖(冷)时,东亚夏季风年代际增强(减弱),与热带太平洋海表温度变化对东亚夏季风年代际变化的影响相反;热带太平洋海表温度年代际背景的变化对东亚夏季风在20世纪70年代中后期的年代际减弱有重要作用。     

热带印度洋-西太平洋水汽输送异常对中国东部夏季降水的影响

利用1979~2015年NCEP/NCAR发布的月平均全球再分析资料,分析了热带印度洋-西太平洋水汽输送异常对中国东部夏季降水的影响及其形成机理。研究结果表明:热带印度洋-西太平洋地区（10°S~30°N,60°~140°E）夏季异常水汽输送主要包括两个模态,他们可以解释总的水汽输送异常34%的方差。其中,第一模态（EOF1）表现为异常水汽沿反气旋从热带西太平洋经过南海及孟加拉湾输送到中国东部上空,对应南海、孟加拉湾水汽路径输送均偏多,此时西太平洋副热带高压显著偏强,异常水汽在长江中下游地区辐合并伴随显著上升运动,有利于长江中下游降水偏多;第二模态（EOF2）表现为异常水汽从热带印度洋沿阿拉伯海、印度半岛、中南半岛等呈反气旋式输送,华南上空相应出现气旋式水汽输送异常,并对应异常水汽辐合和上升运动,有利于华南降水偏多。就可能的外部成因而言,EOF1与ENSO关系密切,表现为前冬热带中东太平洋显著偏暖,夏季同期热带北印度洋、南海上空显著偏暖,造成西太平洋副热带高压显著偏强,异常水汽主要来源于热带西太平洋和南海;EOF2与同期热带印度洋偶极子（TIOD）异常有关,TIOD为正位相时热带印度洋上空出现异常东风,华南上空出现异常气旋并伴随水汽异常辐合,异常水汽主要来源于热带南印度洋。     

Toward Understanding the Extreme Floods over Yangtze River Valley in June?July 2020: Role of Tropical Oceans※

The extreme floods in the Middle/Lower Yangtze River Valley (MLYRV) during June?July 2020 caused more than 170 billion Chinese Yuan direct economic losses. Here, we examine the key features related to this extreme event and explore relative contributions of SST anomalies in different tropical oceans. Our results reveal that the extreme floods over the MLYRV were tightly related to a strong anomalous anticyclone persisting over the western North Pacific, which brought tropical warm moisture northward that converged over the MLYRV. In addition, despite the absence of a strong El Ni?o in 2019/2020 winter, the mean SST anomaly in the tropical Indian Ocean during June?July 2020 reached its highest value over the last 40 years, and 43％ (57％) of it is attributed to the multi-decadal warming trend (interannual variability). Based on the NUIST CFS1.0 model that successfully predicted the wet conditions over the MLYRV in summer 2020 initiated from 1 March 2020 (albeit the magnitude of the predicted precipitation was only about one-seventh of the observed), sensitivity experiment results suggest that the warm SST condition in the Indian Ocean played a dominant role in generating the extreme floods, compared to the contributions of SST anomalies in the Maritime Continent, central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and North Atlantic. Furthermore, both the multi-decadal warming trend and the interannual variability of the Indian Ocean SSTs had positive impacts on the extreme floods. Our results imply that the strong multi-decadal warming trend in the Indian Ocean needs to be taken into consideration for the prediction/projection of summer extreme floods over the MLYRV in the future.     

Toward Understanding the Extreme Floods over Yangtze River Valley in June?July 2020: Role of Tropical Oceans※

The extreme floods in the Middle/Lower Yangtze River Valley (MLYRV) during June?July 2020 caused more than 170 billion Chinese Yuan direct economic losses. Here, we examine the key features related to this extreme event and explore relative contributions of SST anomalies in different tropical oceans. Our results reveal that the extreme floods over the MLYRV were tightly related to a strong anomalous anticyclone persisting over the western North Pacific, which brought tropical warm moisture northward that converged over the MLYRV. In addition, despite the absence of a strong El Ni?o in 2019/2020 winter, the mean SST anomaly in the tropical Indian Ocean during June?July 2020 reached its highest value over the last 40 years, and 43％ (57％) of it is attributed to the multi-decadal warming trend (interannual variability). Based on the NUIST CFS1.0 model that successfully predicted the wet conditions over the MLYRV in summer 2020 initiated from 1 March 2020 (albeit the magnitude of the predicted precipitation was only about one-seventh of the observed), sensitivity experiment results suggest that the warm SST condition in the Indian Ocean played a dominant role in generating the extreme floods, compared to the contributions of SST anomalies in the Maritime Continent, central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and North Atlantic. Furthermore, both the multi-decadal warming trend and the interannual variability of the Indian Ocean SSTs had positive impacts on the extreme floods. Our results imply that the strong multi-decadal warming trend in the Indian Ocean needs to be taken into consideration for the prediction/projection of summer extreme floods over the MLYRV in the future.     

Analysis of Decadal Climate Variability in the Tropical Pacific by Coupled GCM

This study presents the spatial and temporal structures of the decadal variability of the Pacific from an extended control run of a coupled global climate model (GCM).The GCM used was version-g2.0 of the Flexible Global Ocean Atmosphere Land System (FGOALS-g2.0) developed at LASG/IAP.The GCM FGOALS-g2.0 re-produces similar spatial-temporal structures of sea surface temperature (SST) as observed in the Pacific decadal os-cillation (PDO) with a significant period of approximately 14 years.Correspondingly,the PDO signals were closely related to the decadal change both in the upper-ocean temperature anomalies and in the atmospheric circulation.The present results suggest that warm SST anomalies along the equator relax the trade winds,causing the SSTs to warm even more in the eastern equatorial Pacific,which is a positive feedback.Meanwhile,warm SST anomalies along the equator force characteristic off-equa-torial wind stress curl anomalies,inducing much more poleward transport of heat,which is a negative feedback.The upper-ocean meridional heat transport,which is asso-ciated with the PDO phase transition,links the equatorial to the off-equatorial Pacific Ocean,acting as a major mechanism responsible for the tropical Pacific decadal variations.Therefore,the positive and negative feedbacks working together eventually result in the decadal oscilla-tion in the Pacific.     

Spring Arctic Oscillation-East Asian summer monsoon connection through circulation changes over the western North Pacific

In the present study the links between spring Arctic Oscillation (AO) and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) was investigated with focus on the importance of the North Pacific atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST). To reduce the statistical uncertainty, we analyzed high-pass filtered data with the inter-annual time scales, and excluded the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation signals in the climate fields using a linear fitting method. The significant relationship between spring AO and EASM are supported by the changes of multi-monsoon components, including monsoon indices, precipitation, and three-dimensional atmospheric circulations. Following a stronger positive spring AO, an anomalous cyclonic circulation at 850?hPa appears in southeastern Asia and the western North Pacific in summer, with the easterly anomalies spanning from the Pacific to Asian continent along 25°N?C30°N and the westerly anomalies south of 15°N. At the same time, the summer western North Pacific subtropical high becomes weaker. Consistently, the positive precipitation anomalies are developed over a broad region south of 30°N stretching from southern China to the western Pacific and the negative precipitation anomalies appear in the lower valley of the Yangtze River and southern Japan. The anomalous cyclone in the western North Pacific persisting from spring to summer plays a key role in modulating EASM and monsoon precipitation by a positive air-sea feedback mechanism. During spring the AO-associated atmospheric circulation change produces warmer SSTs between 150°E?C180° near the equator. The anomalous sensible and latent heating, in turn, intensifies the cyclone through a Gill-type response of the atmosphere. Through this positive feedback, the tropical atmosphere and SST patterns sustain their strength from spring to summer, that consequently modifies the monsoon trough and the western North Pacific subtropical high and eventually the EASM precipitation. Moreover, the SST response to AO-circulation is supported by the numerical simulations of an ocean model, and the anomalous atmospheric circulation over the western North Pacific is also reproduced by the dedicated numerical simulations using the coupled atmosphere?Cocean model. The observation evidence and numerical simulations suggest the spring AO can impact the EASM via triggering tropical air-sea feedback over the western North Pacific.     

太平洋—日本遥相关型的年代际变化特征及其成因

本文首先利用NCEP/NCAR和ERA-40再分析资料以及中国753站降水资料对太平洋—日本(Pacific-Japan,简称P-J)遥相关型在上世纪70年代末期气候突变前后的年代际变化特征进行了分析研究。结果表明,在气候突变前后,P-J遥相关型的位置发生了显著的变化,气候突变以后其位置明显向西向南偏移。这种位置的变化同样也反映在纬向风场、高度场上。研究结果还表明,气候突变前后P-J遥相关型的年代际变化与热带太平洋和印度洋海温变化有关。气候突变之前,P-J遥相关型的变化与前期热带太平洋和印度洋海温不存在显著的相关;但在气候突变之后,P-J遥相关型与前期冬春季的热带太平洋、印度洋海温之间存在大范围的显著相关区。这种P-J遥相关型与热带太平洋、印度洋海温相关关系的年代改变可能与1970年代中期以后赤道中东太平洋海温变化振幅明显增强有关。随后,本文采用一个高分辨率的大气环流模式,通过一系列的数值试验也进一步证实了1970年代末期热带太平洋和印度洋海温的年代际变化确实可致使P-J遥相关型位置发生相应的改变。     

Interannual Variability of Autumn Precipitation over South China and its Relation to Atmospheric Circulation and SST Anomalies

The interannual variability of autumn precipitation over South China and its relationship with atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies are examined using the autumn precipitation data of 160 stations in China and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset from 1951 to 2004. Results indicate a strong interannual variability of autumn precipitation over South China and its positive correlation with the autumn western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH）. In the flood years, the WPSH ridge line lies over the south of South China and the strengthened ridge over North Asia triggers cold air to move southward. Furthermore, there exists a significantly anomalous updraft and cyclone with the northward stream strengthened at 850 hPa and a positive anomaly center of meridional moisture transport strengthening the northward warm and humid water transport over South China. These display the reverse feature in drought years. The autumn precipitation interannual variability over South China correlates positively with SST in the western Pacific and North Pacific, whereas a negative correlation occurs in the South Indian Ocean in July. The time of the strongest lag-correlation coefficients between SST and autumn precipitation over South China is about two months, implying that the SST of the three ocean areas in July might be one of the predictors for autumn precipitation interannual variability over South China. Discussion about the linkage among July SSTs in the western Pacific, the autumn WPSH and autumn precipitation over South China suggests that SST anomalies might contribute to autumn precipitation through its close relation to the autumn WPSH.     

与西太平洋暖池上空对流年际变化相关联的大气环流和海温

诊断分析了热带西太平洋暖池上空对流弱和强的情况下,大气环流和海温所表现出来的差异。本文中西太平洋暖池是指（１１０－１６０°Ｅ,１０－２０°Ｎ）地区,向外射出长波辐射（ＯＬＲ）在该地区具有明显的年际变率。对西太平洋暖池对流弱和强之间大气环流和海温的差别进行了合成分析。首先,利用 ＮＣＥＰ／ ＮＣＡＰ再分析资料和卫星观测的 ＯＬＲ资料进行了分析。之后,利用欧洲中期天气预报中心再分析资料和再分析计算而得的ＯＬＲ资料重复进行了合成分析。合成结果表明由这两套资料所分析得到的结果非常相象。与西太平洋暖池上空弱（强）对流显著对应的大气环流表现为北太平洋副热带高压的西伸（东退）,以及副高西北侧更强（弱）的西风。此外,在局地（即暖池）上空,还显著对应着东（西）风异常和下沉（上升）气流异常。对应于西太平洋暖池对流强弱,最为显著的海温差别（对流弱减去对流强）为印度洋、孟加拉湾和南海的正海温异常。也就是说,西太洋暖池上空的对流与局地海温异常只有微弱的联系,而与其西部的海温异常密切相关。     

春季热带南大西洋海表温度异常与夏季亚澳季风区降水异常的联系

利用1979—2019年Hadley中心的海表温度资料、GPCP的降水资料以及NCEP-DOE的再分析资料等,分析了北半球春季热带南大西洋海表温度异常与北半球夏季亚澳季风区降水异常的联系。研究表明,北半球春季热带南大西洋海表温度异常与随后夏季热带西太平洋到南海（澳大利亚东侧海域到热带东印度洋）地区的降水异常为显著负相关（正相关）关系。北半球春季热带南大西洋的海表温度正异常可以引起热带大西洋和热带太平洋间的异常垂直环流,其中异常上升支（下沉支）位于热带大西洋（热带中太平洋）。热带中太平洋的异常下沉气流和低层辐散气流引起热带中西太平洋低层的异常东风,后者有利于热带中东太平洋海表温度出现负异常。通过Bjerknes正反馈机制,热带中东太平洋海表温度异常从北半球春季到夏季得到发展。热带中东太平洋海表温度负异常激发的Rossby波使得北半球夏季热带西太平洋低层出现一对异常反气旋。此时,850 hPa上热带西太平洋到海洋性大陆地区为显著的异常东风,有利于热带西太平洋到南海（澳大利亚东侧海域到热带东印度洋）地区出现异常的水汽辐散（辐合）,导致该地区降水减少（增加）。     

广东2月“冷干”和“暖干”年代际特征对比及其与海温异常的联系

根据1961—2019年广东86个站点的降水和气温以及大气环流和海温资料,采用统计分析方法,研究广东2月降水和气温的时空分布特征及其相应的大气环流与海温特征。结果表明:近59年广东2月有两个年代际降水偏少时段,但对应的气温特征显著不同,分别是1961—1981年“冷干”和1999—2019年“暖干”,其对应的大气环流特征表明,第一时段1961—1981年（第二时段1999—2019年）500 hPa高度场以经向（纬向）环流为主,东亚大槽偏强（弱）,东亚冬季风偏强（弱）,低层受异常北（南）风控制,地面冷高压偏强（弱）,偏强的冷空气阻碍了来自海上的水汽输送（偏弱的冷空气不能南下至广东）,使得广东处于水汽辐散区（青藏高原表现为反气旋式环流,南支系统不活跃,对广东地区水汽输送不足）,最终导致广东2月低温少雨（高温少雨）。进一步的分析表明,热带东太平洋和北太平洋中部海温异常是影响广东2月降水的重要外强迫因子,其中第一时段1961—1981年（第二时段1999—2019年）是热带东太平洋（北太平洋中部）海温异常偏冷（暖）通过850 hPa经向风切变偏弱（北太平洋中部异常反气旋环流）来影响广东降水。热带印度洋全区一致型、西太平洋暖池区和北太平洋中部海温异常是影响广东2月气温的外强迫因子,其中前两者主要通过东亚大槽这一环流影响广东气温,而北太平洋中部海温仅影响“暖干”期下广东2月的气温。      

Simulated changes in the relationship between tropical ocean temperatures and the western African monsoon during the mid-Holocene

Results from nine coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations have been used to investigate changes in the relationship between the variability of monsoon precipitation over western Africa and tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) between the mid-Holocene and the present day. Although the influence of tropical SSTs on the African monsoon is generally overestimated in the control simulations, the models reproduce aspects of the observed modes of variability. Thus, most models reproduce the observed negative correlation between western Sahelian precipitation and SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific, and many of them capture the positive correlation between SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Atlantic and precipitation over the Guinea coastal region. Although the response of individual model to the change in orbital forcing between 6 ka and present differs somewhat, eight of the models show that the strength of the teleconnection between SSTs in the eastern tropical Pacific and Sahelian precipitation is weaker in the mid-Holocene. Some of the models imply that this weakening was associated with a shift towards longer time periods (from 3–5 years in the control simulations toward 4–10 years in the mid-Holocene simulations). The simulated reduction in the teleconnection between eastern tropical Pacific SSTs and Sahelian precipitation appears to be primarily related to a reduction in the atmospheric circulation bridge between the Pacific and West Africa but, depending on the model, other mechanisms such as increased importance of other modes of tropical ocean variability or increased local recycling of monsoonal precipitation can also play a role.     

La Niña diversity and Northwest Indian Ocean Rim teleconnections

The differences in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) expressions of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of the same phase have been linked with different global atmospheric circulation patterns. This study examines the dynamical forcing of precipitation during October–December (OND) and March–May (MAM) over East Africa and during December–March (DJFM) over Central-Southwest Asia for 1950–2010 associated with four tropical Pacific SST patterns characteristic of La Niña events, the cold phase of ENSO. The self-organizing map method along with a statistical distinguishability test was used to isolate La Niña events, and seasonal precipitation forcing was investigated in terms of the tropical overturning circulation and thermodynamic and moisture budgets. Recent La Niña events with strong opposing SST anomalies between the central and western Pacific Ocean (phases 3 and 4), force the strongest global circulation modifications and drought over the Northwest Indian Ocean Rim. Over East Africa during MAM and OND, subsidence is forced by an enhanced tropical overturning circulation and precipitation reductions are exacerbated by increases in moisture flux divergence. Over Central-Southwest Asia during DJFM, the thermodynamic forcing of subsidence is primarily responsible for precipitation reductions, with moisture flux divergence acting as a secondary mechanism to reduce precipitation. Eastern Pacific La Niña events in the absence of west Pacific SST anomalies (phases 1 and 2), are associated with weaker global teleconnections, particularly over the Indian Ocean Rim. The weak regional teleconnections result in statistically insignificant precipitation modifications over East Africa and Central-Southwest Asia.