气象网站在自然灾害应急过程中的危机应对

自然灾害的频繁发生和信息网络时代的到来催生了新媒体的危机应对。气象部门作为一个为公共服务的社会单位．气象网站进行气象信息的发布、传播。其服务于政府、公众和社会,如何在危机来临时从容应对。维护气象部门形象,并且使公共气象信息资源得到更合理的利用和开发,需要我们在今后的工作中不断研究和探讨。     

新媒体时代下气象影视的创新与发展

正随着新媒体传播形态(即新媒体)的飞速发展,尤其是网络传播技术、移动通讯的发展,通过网络或手机获得气象信息逐渐成为中青年人的习惯。新媒体严重冲击了传统的电视媒体。由于传统的气象影视节目往往依托电视台作为唯一传播载体,在固定时间段发布播出,气象信息不能及时     

多种媒介融合 拓展天气预报节目传播空间

文章主要讨论了传统媒体和新媒体对气象节目的需求、发展以及创新。认为:气象信息的传播实现新旧媒体的互补是电视天气预报今后改革和创新的必然趋势;在巩固传统媒体的基础上,充分把握新媒体的特点,寻找和开发适合新媒体的天气预报节目,拓宽气象信息的传播渠道,增强气象服务的能力。     

气象服务信息在多媒体中传播的分析与思考

在数字技术的推动下,各类媒体带来气象服务在传播空间、传播内容、受传关系等各方面的改变,人们接收信息的渠道越来越趋于多元化。气象服务信息的新媒体传播旨在以服务为导向的前提下,利用各种新兴媒体资源,实现对各级政府、目标消费者更加及时、精准、到位的气象服务。本文主要对青海省气象服务信息在各类媒体的传播现状进行了调研分析,提出了在新媒体迅速发展的今天,如何激发气象产品的社会价值,提升气象服务质。     

内蒙古气象服务官方微信的应用探索

内蒙古天气微信公众平台充分利用新媒体传播拓展气象信息发布渠道,使气象灾害预警、天气预报、天气实况等气象信息能够快速推送到用户手中,为公众提供方便、快捷和丰富的气象信息服务。利用微信高效快捷的发布气象信息是文章分析的主要内容,也是解决气象服务信息传播"最后一公里"的新型手段。     

新中国气象信息传播服务发展及未来趋势分析

分析了电视、广播、报刊、电话、电子显示屏等传统媒体及微信、微博、气象网站、手机app等新媒体在气象信息传播服务中的发展变化。分析发现,近十年传统气象信息传播方式所占份额出现下降趋势,而微信、微博、手机app等新媒体发展迅速,社会力量开始参与气象信息传播服务。新时期,气象信息服务呈现新特征,气象信息产品内容更加丰富、形式更加多样、提供主体更加多元,气象在国民经济中的地位更加突出。气象信息传播方式更新迭代,反映出7大趋势:发布主体与传播主体渐相分离;气象信息附加值将被深度挖掘;创新力量加入气象服务市场,民营气象公司发展势头强劲;气象事业单位重在提供基础性、公益性气象数据服务以及平台服务和技术支撑,其核心任务是提高预报预测准确率和精细化水平;以用户需求为导向的精细化气象服务是气象事业立根之本;气象信息服务多技术融合发展及全球一体化发展趋势。随着经济社会的发展和技术的进步,社会对气象服务的需求越来越大,气象服务解决的将不仅仅是气象信息传播的问题,更是解决如何提供更具针对性的气象服务、发挥气象信息更大社会价值的问题。新技术的发展使气象与其他行业融合成为可能,借助国家"互联网+"战略,气象服务市场将大有可为。     

新老媒体融合提升公众气象服务传播能力的研究

通过分析公众气象服务现状和存在问题,探讨如何发挥新媒体与传统媒体相互融合的作用,共同提升公众气象服务传播能力。利用新媒体资源的特点和优势,建立平战结合、可持续发展的传播体系,以新带旧,以旧促新,在融合发展中实现气象信息传播模式的转型升级。同时利用技术创新,基于位置主动推送气象服务产品,构建有效的气象预警发布渠道,创建、筑牢气象品牌效应,探索走出一条新媒体商业化的气象服务途径。     

新媒体环境下气象影视创新与发展

面对以数字化为特征的新媒体环境,气象影视应当如何创新发展,是该文探讨的主要内容,提出了新旧媒体融合、多媒体优势互补、整合传播的理念,有助于实现如下目标:增强原有电视气象节目的影响力、拓宽气象信息传播渠道、实现气象信息有效传播,从而为搭建好公共气象服务平台、为人民福祉安康服务、为构建和谐社会服务。     

新媒体环境下气象影视创新与发展

面对以数字化为特征的新媒体环境,气象影视应当如何创新发展,是该文探讨的主要内容,提出了新旧媒体融合、多媒体优势互补、整合传播的理念,有助于实现如下目标：增强原有电视气象节目的影响力、拓宽气象信息传播渠道、实现气象信息有效传播,从而为搭建好公共气象服务平台、为人民福祉安康服务、为构建和谐社会服务。     

气象影视产品在新媒体运营中的新举措探究

随着网络技术的发展与普及,信息传递与交流的方式也有了质的飞跃。当前以新媒体为代表的新的媒介方式,转变了以往的媒介格局,有效地拓展了信息传播途径。新媒体的发展,给气象影视产品的发展带来了更多的机遇与挑战。本文以此为基础,从气象影视产品的社会价值入手,围绕新媒体时代下,气象影视产品的开发与创新性运营方式展开论述,融合理论与实践,探索适合于当前信息时代发展下气象影视产品新思路,促进气象影视产品的可持续发展。     

加强业务管理提高测报质量

我局从1999～2003年,测报工作连续4年未出现错情,在此期间共有1个250个班,9个百班无错通过上级业务部门验收.在仪器保管、使用、维护上符合要求,对外报送的各种表、簿都能做好出门合格.     

Quantifying the uncertainty of the annular mode time scale and the role of the stratosphere

The impact of high resolution modern vegetation cover on the West African climate is examined using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model implementing the NCAR Community Land Model. Two high resolution 25 km long-term simulations driven by the output from a coarser 50-km resolution simulation are performed for the period 1998–2010. One high resolution simulation uses an earlier and coarser-resolution version of plant functional type distribution and leaf area index, while the other uses a more recent, higher-quality, and finer-resolution version of the data. The results indicate that the new land cover distribution substantially alters the distribution of temperature with warming in Central Nigeria, northern Gulf of Guinea and part of the Sahel due to the replacement of C4 grass with corn; and cooling along the coastlines of the Gulf of Guinea and in Central Africa due to the replacement of C4 grass with tropical broadleaf evergreen trees. Changes in latent heat flux appear to be largely responsible for these temperature changes with a net decrease (increase) in regions of warming (cooling). The improved land cover distribution also results in a wetter monsoon season. The presence of corn tends to favor larger precipitation amounts via more intense events, while the presence of tropical broadleaf evergreen trees tends to favor the occurrence of both more intense and more frequent events. The wetter conditions appear to be sustained via (1) an enhanced soil moisture feedback; and (2) elevated moisture transport due to increased low-level convergence in regions south of 10N where the most substantial land cover differences are present. Overall the changes induced by the improved vegetation cover improve, to some extent, the performance of the high resolution regional climate model in simulating the main West African summer monsoon features.     

由中国历史气候记录对季风导致唐朝灭亡说的质疑

2007年1月4日杂志发表了Yancheva等10人的题为"Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East-Asian monsoon"(热带辐合带对东亚季风的影响)的论文[1],这是德国波兹坦地学研究中心气候动力与沉积学科的主管豪格(G.H.Haug)率领的科研小组的一项成果,认为是季风的变化引起的长期干旱导致了唐朝的灭亡.     

On the forecast of the onset and end of the convective season in the Amazon

Summary ?Some features of the climate system that can be considered predictors of the onset and end of the convective season over the Amazon were identified using one-month lag correlations and field composites. The fields analyzed were sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), vertical velocity and upper tropospheric winds. Warm (cold) anomalies in the SST in the tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea tend to be associated with delayed (early) onsets. Likewise, there is a tendency towards a delayed (early) end of the convective season with cold (warm) anomalies in these ocean regions. In addition, the SST in the cold tongue region of the equatorial Pacific is negatively, though weakly correlated with the onset date. The signal of this SST is more evident in the case of the end date, which is earlier with respect to its mean date in most of El Ni?o cases. The convective activity intensity itself conditions the onset and the end of the convective season, as it is evidenced by the behavior of the OLR and the vertical velocity fields. The more (less) intense the convective activity over South America during the preceding month, the earlier the onset and the later the end of the convective season on the Amazon region. The prediction of the onset and end dates of the convective season in the Amazon region was explored using a simple multiple regression technique based on the variables that have shown precursor signals with respect to these dates. The correlation coefficient between the predicted and the observed onset date is 0.81, and in the case of the end date, it is 0.76. The skill to predict early, delayed and normal categories was high, since in more than two thirds of the cases the category was successfully predicted, and there were no predictions of categories opposed to those observed. Received July 23, 2001; revised February 22, 2002; accepted April 26, 2002     

Comparing the theoretical versions of the Beaufort scale, the T-Scale and the Fujita scale

2005 is the bicentenary of the Beaufort Scale and its wind-speed codes: the marine version in 1805 and the land version later. In the 1920s when anemometers had come into general use, the Beaufort Scale was quantified by a formula based on experiment. In the early 1970s two tornado wind-speed scales were proposed: (1) an International T-Scale based on the Beaufort Scale; and (2) Fujita's damage scale developed for North America. The International Beaufort Scale and the T-Scale share a common root in having an integral theoretical relationship with an established scientific basis, whereas Fujita's Scale introduces criteria that make its intensities non-integral with Beaufort. Forces on the T-Scale, where T stands for Tornado force, span the range 0 to 10 which is highly useful world wide. The shorter range of Fujita's Scale (0 to 5) is acceptable for American use but less convenient elsewhere. To illustrate the simplicity of the decimal T-Scale, mean hurricane wind speed of Beaufort 12 is T2 on the T-Scale but F1.121 on the F-Scale; while a tornado wind speed of T9 (= B26) becomes F4.761. However, the three wind scales can be uni-fied by either making F-Scale numbers exactly half the magnitude of T-Scale numbers [i.e. F′half = T / 2 = (B / 4) − 4] or by doubling the numbers of this revised version to give integral equivalence with the T-Scale. The result is a decimal formula F′double = T = (B / 2) − 4 named the TF-Scale where TF stands for Tornado Force. This harmonious 10-digit scale has all the criteria needed for world-wide practical effectiveness.     

准两年振荡对大气中微量气体分布的影响

NCAR的包含化学、辐射、动力相互作用的两维模式（SOCRATES）移植回国后进行了初步的模拟试验,用以研究某些对环境问题重要的微量气体的化学、辐射、动力传输过程。在不考虑极地平流层云和气溶胶表面非均相化学等情况下,模式积分多年,计算结果稳定,模拟的风场、温度场显示出正常的季节变化,模拟的微量气体分布与卫星实测资料对照,结果也比较一致。为了探讨热带平流层风场的准两年周期振荡（QBO）对平流层微量气体分布的影响,我们做了QBO强迫的数值试验,即在模式中加入QBO强迫,并与不考虑QBO强迫的模拟结果对比。结果表明,QBO与其相关的次级环流所引起动力输送的变化,使平流层微量气体分布发生变化。     

Analysis of the Characteristics of the Low-level Jets in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River during the Mei-yu Season

Here, we analyze the characteristics and the formation mechanisms of low-level jets(LLJs) in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during the 2010 mei-yu season using Wuhan station radiosonde data and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5) reanalysis dataset. Our results show that the vertical structure of LLJs is characterized by a predominance of boundary layer jets(BLJs) concentrated at heights of 900–1200 m.The BLJs occur most frequently at 230...     

流场配置及地形对西南低涡形成的动力作用

本文采用定常二层模式讨论较小地形及高、低层流场配置对西南低涡形成的动力作用。指出了西南低涡的形成是与盆地、河谷以及其上气流分层有关的一种定常态.在上、下为西风分层时期,低层的浅薄暖湿西风有利于西南低涡的形成.在上、下为东、西风分层时期,上层浅薄东风亦有利于西南低涡的形成.小型的凸起山脉对西南低涡的形成没有作用.