The Northern Oscillation Index (NOI): a new climate index for the northeast Pacific

We introduce the Northern Oscillation Index (NOI), a new index of climate variability based on the difference in sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies at the North Pacific High (NPH) in the northeast Pacific (NEP) and near Darwin, Australia, in a climatologically low SLP region. These two locations are centers of action for the north Pacific Hadley–Walker atmospheric circulation. SLPs at these sites have a strong negative correlation that reflects their roles in this circulation. Global atmospheric circulation anomaly patterns indicate that the NEP is linked to the western tropical Pacific and southeast Asia via atmospheric wave trains associated with fluctuations in this circulation. Thus the NOI represents a wide range of tropical and extratropical climate events impacting the north Pacific on intraseasonal, interannual, and decadal scales. The NOI is roughly the north Pacific equivalent of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), but extends between the tropics and extratropics. Because the NOI is partially based in the NEP, it provides a more direct indication of the mechanisms by which global-scale climate events affect the north Pacific and North America.The NOI is dominated by interannual variations associated with El Niño and La Niña (EN/LN) events. Large positive (negative) index values are usually associated with LN (EN) and negative (positive) upper ocean temperature anomalies in the NEP, particularly along the North American west coast. The NOI and SOI are highly correlated, but are clearly different in several respects. EN/LN variations tend to be represented by larger swings in the NOI. Forty percent of the interannual moderate and strong interannual NOI events are seen by the SOI as events that are either weak or opposite in sign. The NOI appears to be a better index of environmental variability in the NEP than the SOI, and NPH SLP alone, suggesting the NOI is more effective at incorporating the influences of regional and remotely teleconnected climate processes.The NOI contains alternating decadal-scale periods dominated by positive and negative values, suggesting substantial climate shifts on a roughly 14-year ‘cycle’. The NOI was predominantly positive prior to 1965, during 1970–1976 and 1984–1991, and since 1998. Negative values predominated in 1965–1970, 1977–1983, and 1991–1998. In the NEP, interannual and decadal-scale negative NOI periods (e.g. EN events) are generally associated with weaker trade winds, weaker coastal upwelling-favorable winds, warmer upper ocean temperatures, lower Pacific Northwest salmon catch, higher Alaska salmon catch, and generally decreased macrozooplankton biomass off southern California. The opposite physical and biological patterns generally occur when the index is positive. Simultaneous correlations of the NOI with north Pacific upper ocean temperature anomalies are greatest during the boreal winter and spring. Lagged correlations of the winter and spring NOI with subsequent upper ocean temperatures are high for several seasons. The relationships between the NOI and atmospheric and physical and biological oceanic anomalies in the NEP indicate this index is a useful diagnostic of climate change in the NEP, and suggest mechanisms linking variations in the physical environment to marine resources on interannual to decadal climate scales. The NOI time series is available online at: http://www.pfeg.noaa.gov.     

Altimeter-derived surface circulation in the large-scale NE Pacific Gyres. : Part 2: 1997–1998 El Niño anomalies

Changes in the sea surface heights (SSH) and geostrophic transports in the NE Pacific are examined during the 1997–1998 El Niño using altimeter data, sea level pressure (SLP) fields, proxy winds and satellite sea surface temperature (SST). Most of the signal occurs along the boundaries of the basin from Panama to the Alaska Peninsula. Changes in the SSH and alongshore transports along the boundaries are caused both by propagation of signals from the south (stronger between the equator and the Gulf of California) and by local and basin-scale winds (stronger between the Pacific Northwest and the Alaska Peninsula). Two periods of high SSH occur at the equator, May–July 1997 and October 1997–January 1998. The first coastal SSH signal moved quickly polewards to approximately 24°N in early June, then stalled and moved farther north during transient events in July–September. Large-scale wind forcing combined with the equatorial signals during the second period of high equatorial SSH (Fall 1997) to move the high SSH and poleward transports quickly around the Alaska Gyre. A connection between the boundary currents and the interior North Pacific developed as part of the large-scale response to the basin-scale winds, after changes in the boundaries. Decreases in anomalies of SSH and poleward transports began in January 1998 south of 40°N and in February 1998 farther north.     

Dynamic evolution of the 1997–1999 El Niño–La Niña cycle in the southern California Current System

The development of the strongest El Niño event on record in the equatorial Pacific in 1997–1998 and the rapid transition to strong La Niña conditions in 1998–1999 had a large impact on the physical and biological environment of the West Coast. We investigate the evolution of the physical structure and circulation dynamics of the southern California Current System (CCS) during this period based on hydrographic data collected on 25 cruises over a 45-month period (February 1996–October 1999). The El Niño period was characterized by a significant increase in dynamic height, extreme water mass characteristics, a strengthening and broadening of the poleward nearshore flow, and a temporary reversal of net alongshore transport. By early 1999, conditions in the CCS had reversed. The data suggest that remotely driven forcing (propagating oceanic waves) contributed to the anomalies observed during the El Niño period, while the cool-water conditions of 1999 were most likely a result of anomalous local atmospheric forcing.     

The 1997–1998 oceanic El Niño signal along the southeast and northeast Pacific boundaries—an altimetric view

Changes in the sea surface heights (SSH) and geostrophic currents along the eastern boundaries of the Pacific (North, Central and South America) are examined during the 1997–1998 El Niño using altimeter data and proxy winds. These show that ‘symmetric’ SSH signals left the equator and propagated into both Hemispheres in two episodes, with primary periods of high equatorial SSH during May–July and October–December 1997. These are the ‘distant signals’ from the mid-latitude perspective. As the signals spread poleward in each Hemisphere, their loss of symmetry demonstrates the degree to which they were altered by topographic features, local winds, and/or local currents. The first four EOFs are calculated for 2-D SSH fields in 10° wide strips along the eastern margins (60°N–60°S) and extending out along the equator from the coast to 110°W. These account for approximately 40% of the overall variability and represent the main features of the seasonal cycles and El Niño interannual variability. Snapshots of the 2-D SSH fields depict the structure of the El Niño signal at different phases of its evolution.     

Trophic modeling of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem, Part I: Comparing trophic linkages under La Niña and El Niño conditions

The El Niño of 1997–98 was one of the strongest warming events of the past century; among many other effects, it impacted phytoplankton along the Peruvian coast by changing species composition and reducing biomass. While responses of the main fish resources to this natural perturbation are relatively well known, understanding the ecosystem response as a whole requires an ecotrophic multispecies approach. In this work, we construct trophic models of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem (NHCE) and compare the La Niña (LN) years in 1995–96 with the El Niño (EN) years in 1997–98. The model area extends from 4°S–16°S and to 60 nm from the coast. The model consists of 32 functional groups of organisms and differs from previous trophic models of the Peruvian system through: (i) division of plankton into size classes to account for EN-associated changes and feeding preferences of small pelagic fish, (ii) increased division of demersal groups and separation of life history stages of hake, (iii) inclusion of mesopelagic fish, and (iv) incorporation of the jumbo squid (Dosidicus gigas), which became abundant following EN. Results show that EN reduced the size and organization of energy flows of the NHCE, but the overall functioning (proportion of energy flows used for respiration, consumption by predators, detritus and export) of the ecosystem was maintained. The reduction of diatom biomass during EN forced omnivorous planktivorous fish to switch to a more zooplankton-dominated diet, raising their trophic level. Consequently, in the EN model the trophic level increased for several predatory groups (mackerel, other large pelagics, sea birds, pinnipeds) and for fishery catch. A high modeled biomass of macrozooplankton was needed to balance the consumption by planktivores, especially during EN condition when observed diatoms biomass diminished dramatically. Despite overall lower planktivorous fish catches, the higher primary production required-to-catch ratio implied a stronger ecological impact of the fishery and stresses the need for precautionary management of fisheries during and after EN. During EN energetic indicators such as the lower primary production/total biomass ratio suggest a more energetically efficient ecosystem, while reduced network indicators such as the cycling index and relative ascendency indicate of a less organized state of the ecosystem. Compared to previous trophic models of the NHCE we observed: (i) a shrinking of ecosystem size in term of energy flows, (ii) slight changes in overall functioning (proportion of energy flows used for respiration, consumption by predators and detritus), and (iii) the use of alternate pathways leading to a higher ecological impact of the fishery for planktivorous fish.     

Hydrography, nutrients and chlorophyll during El Niño and La Niña 1997–99 winters in the Gulf of the Farallones, California

Nutrient and chlorophyll concentrations were measured in January 1997, 1998 and 1999 in the Gulf of the Farallones, CA at locations stretching north/south from Point Reyes to Half Moon Bay, and seaward from the Golden Gate to the Farallon Islands. The cruises were all carried out during periods of high river flow, but under different climatological conditions with 1997 conditions described as relatively typical or ‘neutral/normal’, compared to the El Niño warmer water temperatures in 1998, and the cooler La Niña conditions in 1999. Near-shore sea-surface temperatures ranged from cold (9.5–10.5°C) during La Niña 1999, to average (11–13°C) during 1997 to warm (13.5–15°C) during El Niño 1998. Nutrients are supplied to the Gulf of the Farallones both from San Francisco Bay (SFB) and from oceanic sources, e.g. coastal upwelling near Point Reyes. Nutrient supplies are strongly influenced by the seasonal cycle of fall calms, with storms (commencing in January), and the spring transition to high pressure and northerly upwelling favorable winds. The major effect of El Niño and La Niña climatic conditions was to modulate the relative contribution of SFB to nutrient concentrations in the coastal waters of the Gulf of the Farallones; this was intensified during the El Niño winter and reduced during La Niña. During January 1998 (El Niño) the oceanic water was warm and had low or undetectable nitrate, that did not reach the coast. Instead, SFB dominated the supply of nutrients to the coastal waters. Additionally, these data indicate that silicate may be a good tracker of SFB water. In January, delta outflow into SFB produces low salinity, high silicate, high nitrate water that exits the bay at the Golden Gate and is advected northward along the coast. This occurred in both 1997 and 1998. However during January 1999, a La Niña, this SFB feature was reduced and the near-shore water was more characteristic of high salinity oceanic water penetrated all the way to the coast and was cold (10°C) and nutrient rich (16 μM NO₃, 30 μM Si(OH)₄). January chlorophyll concentrations ranged from 1–1.5 μg l⁻¹ in all years with the highest values measured in 1999 (2.5–3 μg l⁻¹) as a result of elevated nutrients in the area. The impact of climatic conditions on chlorophyll concentrations was not as pronounced as might be expected from the high temperatures and low nutrient concentrations measured offshore during El Niño due to the sustained supply of nutrients from the Bay supporting continued primary production.     

Cooling in the western Bering Sea in 1999: quick propagation of La Niña signal or compensatory processes effect?

In 1999, synoptic and hydrological conditions in the western Bering Sea were characterized by negative SST and air temperature anomalies, extensive ice coverage and late melting. Biological processes were also delayed. In 1999, the average zooplankton biomass was 1.76 g/m³, approximately half the average 3.07 g/m³ in 1998. Pacific salmon migrated to the northeastern Kamchatka streams two weeks later. This contrasts with 1997 (spring and summer) and 1998 (summer) when positive SST anomalies were widely distributed throughout the northwestern Bering Sea shelf. Since the second half of the 1990s, seasonal atmospheric processes developed over the western Bering Sea that were similar to those of the cold decades of the 1960–1970s. A meridional atmospheric circulation pattern began to replace zonal transport. Colder Arctic air masses have shifted over the Bering Sea region and shelf water temperatures have cooled considerably with the weakening of zonal atmospheric circulation. Temperature decreased in the cold intermediate layer during its renewal in winter. Besides, oceanic water inflow intensified into the Bering Sea in intermediate layers. Water temperature warmed to 4°C and a double temperature maximum existed in the warm intermediate layer in late summer in both 1997 and 1998. Opposing trends of cold water temperature and a warm intermediate layer led to an increase of vertical gradients in the main thermocline and progressing frontogenesis. It accelerates frontal transport and can be regarded as a chief cause of increased water exchange with the Pacific Ocean.     

Nutrient variability during El Niño 1997–98 in the California current system off central California

Nutrient conditions off central California during the 1997–98 El Niño are described. Data were collected on 11 cruises from March 1997 to January 1999 along a hydrographic section off central California, as well as every two weeks at a coastal station in Monterey Bay. Perturbations associated with El Niño are shown as anomalies of thermohaline and nutrient distributions along this section. The anomalies were obtained by subtracting seasonal averages for the period from April 1988 to April 1991 from the 1997–98 observations. The first indications of El Niño conditions (high sea levels) were observed at Monterey between late May and early June 1997, but the coastal nutricline did not begin to deepen until August 1997. It reached maximum depth of 130 dbar in January 1998 at the time that maximum sea level anomalies were observed. During this period: (1) the highest subsurface temperature anomalies coincided with subsurface nutrient anomaly minima at the depth of the pycnocline; (2) southern saline and nutrient-poor waters occupied the upper 80 dbar of the water column along the entire section; and (3) nitrate levels were close to zero in the euphotic zone, collapsing the potential new primary production in the coastal domain. At the end of February 1998, the nutricline shoaled to 40 dbar at the coast although it remained anomalously deep offshore. Higher temperatures and lower nutrient levels were observed for the entire section through August 1998 although in contrast with the previous winter, there was a strong freshening mainly due to an onshore movement of subarctic waters.     

Changes in the cetacean assemblage of a coastal upwelling ecosystem during El Niño 1997–98 and La Niña 1999

We report results of ecosystem studies in Monterey Bay, California, during the summer upwelling periods, 1996–99, including impacts of El Niño 1997–98 and La Niña 1999. Random-systematic line-transect surveys of marine mammals were conducted monthly from August to November 1996, and from May to November 1997–99. CTDs and zooplankton net tows were conducted opportunistically, and at 10 predetermined locations. Hydroacoustic backscatter was measured continuously while underway to estimate prevalence of zooplankton, with emphasis on euphausiids, a key trophic link between primary production and higher trophic level consumers.The occurrences of several of the California Current’s most common cetaceans varied among years. The assemblage of odontocetes became more diverse during the El Niño with a temporary influx of warm-water species. Densities of cold-temperate Dall’s porpoise, Phocoenoides dalli, were greatest before the onset of El Niño, whereas warm-temperate common dolphins, Delphinus spp., were present only during the warm-water period associated with El Niño. Rorqual densities decreased in August 1997 as euphausiid backscatter was reduced. In 1998, as euphausiid backscatter slowly increased, rorqual densities increased sharply to the greatest observed values. Euphausiid backscatter further increased in 1999, whereas rorqual densities were similar to those observed during 1998. We hypothesize that a dramatic reduction in zooplankton biomass offshore during El Niño 1997–98 led to the concentration of rorquals in the remaining productive coastal upwelling areas, including Monterey Bay. These patterns exemplify short-term responses of cetaceans to large-scale changes in oceanic conditions.     

Biological and chemical consequences of the 1997–1998 El Niño in central California waters

The physical, chemical and biological perturbations in central California waters associated with the strong 1997–1998 El Niño are described and explained on the basis of time series collected from ships, moorings, tide gauges and satellites. The evolution of El Niño off California closely followed the pattern observed in the tropical Pacific. In June 1997 an anomalous influx of warm southerly waters, with weak signatures on coastal sea level and thermocline depth, marked the onset of El Niño in central California. The timing was consistent with propagation from the tropics via the equatorial and coastal wave-guide. By late 1997, the classical stratified ocean condition with a deep thermocline, high sea level, and warm sea surface temperature (SST) commonly associated with El Niño dominated the coastal zone. During the first half of 1998 the core of the California Current, which is normally detected several hundred kilometers from shore as a river of low salinity, low nutrient water, was hugging the coast. High nutrient, productive waters that occur in a north–south band from the coast to approximately 200 km offshore during cool years disappeared during El Niño. The nitrate in surface waters was less than 20% of normal and new production was reduced by close to 70%. The La Niña recovery phase began in the fall of 1998 when SSTs dropped below normal, and ocean productivity rebounded to higher than normal levels. The reduction in coastal California primary productivity associated with El Niño was estimated to be 50 million metric tons of carbon (5×10¹³ g C). This reduction certainly had deleterious effects on zooplankton, fish, and marine mammals. The 1992–1993 El Niño was more moderate than the 1997–1998 event, but because its duration was longer, its overall chemical and biological impact may have been comparable. How strongly the ecosystem responds to El Niño appears related to the longer-term background climatic state of the Pacific Ocean. The 1982–1983 and 1992–1993 El Niños occurred during the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO may have changed sign during the 1997–1998 El Niño, resulting in weaker ecological effects than would otherwise have been predicted based on the strength of the temperature anomaly.     

A poleward jet and an equatorward undercurrent observed off Oregon and northern California, during the 1997–98 El Niño

The timing and intensity of the effects of the 1997–98 El Niño on sea-surface temperature (SST) and coastal sea level along the US west coast are examined using in situ time-series measurements, and the effects on upper ocean currents on the continental shelf and slope off Oregon and northern California are examined using repeated shipborne ADCP transects, a mid-shelf mooring off Newport Oregon and an HF surface current radar. An initial transient positive anomaly was observed in both adjusted sea level and SST during May–June 1997, followed by anomalously high coastal sea levels, generally strongest during September 1997 through February 1998 and abruptly returned to normal in late February 1998, and by positive temperatures anomalies over the mid-shelf that persisted longer, into April 1998. Low-frequency coastal sea-level anomalies propagated poleward at 2.1 m/s. Poleward flow over the shelf and slope was enhanced at most depths during the El Niño, compared with following years. Northward currents in the upper 12 m over the continental shelf off Newport, Oregon averaged 13.7 cm/s stronger during August 1997 through February 1998 than during the same period the following year. Enhanced poleward flow was present at all latitudes sampled during November 1997 and February 1998, particularly over the continental slope. These transects also provided clear views of a fall/winter equatorward undercurrent, which was both strongest and had the most alongshore similarity of form, during the ENSO. Finally, subsurface-intensified anticyclonic eddies originating in the poleward undercurrent appear to be a recurrent feature of the circulation off Newport late in the upwelling season.     

1997–1998 El Niño off Peru: A numerical study

An eddy-resolving numerical simulation for the Peru–Chile system between 1993 and 2000 is analyzed, mainly for the 1997–1998 El Niño. Atmospheric and lateral oceanic forcings are realistic and contain a wide range of scales from days to interannual. The solution is validated against altimetric observations and the few in situ observations available. The simulated 1997–1998 El Niño closely resembles the real 1997–1998 El Niño in its time sequence of events. The two well-marked, sea-level peaks in May–June and November–December 1997 are reproduced with amplitudes close to those observed. Other sub-periods of the El Niño seem to be captured adequately. Simple dynamical analyses are performed to explain the 1997–1998 evolution of the upwelling in the model. The intensity of the upwelling appears to be determined by an interplay between alongshore, poleward advection (related to coastal trapped waves) and wind intensity, but also by the cross-shore geostrophic flow and distribution of the water masses on a scale of 1000 km or more (involving Rossby waves westward propagation and advection from equatorial currents). In particular, the delay of upwelling recovery until fall 1998 (i.e., well after the second El Niño peak) is partly due to the persistent advection of offshore stratified water toward the coast of Peru. Altimetry data suggest that these interpretations of the numerical solution also apply to the real ocean.     

Changes in the hydrography of Central California waters associated with the 1997–98 El Niño

Oceanographic conditions off Central California were monitored by means of a series of 13 hydrographic cruises between February 1997 and January 1999, which measured water properties along an oceanographic section perpendicular to the California Coast. The 1997–98 El Niño event was defined by higher than normal sea levels at Monterey, which began in June 1997, peaked in November 1997, and returned to normal in March 1998. The warming took place in two distinct periods. During June and July 1997, the sea level increased as a result of stronger than normal coastal warming below 200 dbars and within 100 km of the coast, which was associated with poleward flow of saltier waters. During this period, deeper (400–1000 dbar) waters between 150–200 km from shore were also warmed and became more saline. Subsequently, sea level continued to rise through January 1998, mostly as a result of the warming above 200 dbars although, after a brief period of cooling in September 1997, waters below 200 dbar were also warmer than normal during this period. This winter warm anomaly was also coastally trapped, extending 200 km from shore and was accompanied by cooler and fresher water in the offshore California current. In March and April 1998, sea level dropped quickly to normal levels and inshore waters were fresher and warmer than the previous spring and flowed southward.The warming was consistent with equatorial forcing of Central California waters via propagation of Kelvin or coastally-trapped waves. The observed change in heat content associated with the 1997–98 El Niño was the same as that observed during the previous seasonal cycle. The warming and freshening events were similar to events observed during the 1957–58 and 1982–83 El Niños.     

Impact of the 1997–1998 El Niño and 1999 La Niña on nutrient supply in the Gulf of Alaska

Nutrient surveys of the Gulf of Alaska, from 1997 through 1999, show that coastal waters of British Columbia and southern Alaska experienced nitrate depletion each spring and summer. Through the 1997–1998 El Niño, waters with less than 1 μM NO₃ covered 250,000 km² area greater than 1999. Silicate levels as low as 0.2 μM were observed in coastal waters, suggesting that diatom growth may have been nutrient limited both in 1998 and 1999. Detailed sampling off the southern coast of British Columbia revealed that 1998 nitrate levels were only half the average of that during the 1970s winter, were depleted 1 month earlier in spring and remained low throughout the summer. Satellite images show that, compared to 1997 and 1999, chlorophyll levels were much lower in the spring of 1998 throughout the coastal waters of the Gulf of Alaska. Conditions changed dramatically during the 1999 La Niña, with ocean-mixed layer depths increasing by 20 m in winter and 40 m in spring when compared to that during 1997–1998 El Niño. Winter nutrient levels increased and summer upwelling returned. Over the past several decades, a trend towards greater stratification of coastal waters appears to be affecting the supply of nutrients to the mixed layer. The effects of stratification were especially obvious during the 1998 El Niño.     

The coastal ocean off Oregon from 1961 to 2000: is there evidence of climate change or only of Los Niños?

A zonal hydrographic section along 44.65°N, from the coast of Oregon to 300 km offshore, was occupied regularly (at least seasonally) from 1961 to 1971 and then sporadically until recently. Regular monitoring of this section to 160 km offshore resumed in July 1997 as part of the GLOBEC Long Term Observational Program; the recent data provide observations in Oregon coastal waters of El Niño 1997–98 and La Niña conditions that followed. The complete seasonal data from the decade 1961–1971 provide a basis for comparison with the recent temperature and salinity sections, steric height profiles, geostrophic velocity, and water mass characteristics. These data, and sporadic observations in intervening years, allow us to compare conditions during several ENSO events with the recent event and to search for evidence of climate change. The PFEL Coastal Upwelling Index, sea level from the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center, the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and outflow from the Columbia River are used to distinguish local and remote causes of variability in physical oceanographic conditions off Oregon. The sequence of El Niño/La Niña/El Niño in 1963–66, during a cool phase of PDO, provides a comparison to El Niño/La Niña of 1997–2000. El Niño in 1982–83 and 1997–98, during a warm phase of PDO, caused the largest oceanographic anomalies in the 40 years. The comparison indicates warming of the coastal ocean off Oregon and suggests a modulation of ENSO effects by PDO. Such modulation would mask evidence for secular climate change in our 40-year oceanographic data series.     

Marine nekton off Oregon and the 1997–98 El Nino

Several species of migratory, warm-water, oceanic fishes invaded Oregon waters during the summer of 1997. Also, the jumbo squid (Dosidicus gigas), common in the eastern tropical Pacific, was reported for the first time in 1997 and was caught in large numbers. The occurrence of these oceanic nekton was associated with inshore advection of anomalously warm water. During 1998, after arrival of the main El Niño signal, some warm-water coastal fishes appeared off Oregon. However, unlike observations off California, fewer species of warm-water coastal fishes were noted during the 1997–98 El Niño than during the 1982–83 El Niño.     

The coastal ocean off Oregon and northern California during the 1997–8 El Niño

The evolution and decay of El Niño 1997–8 was observed in coastal waters off Oregon in a sequence of cruises along 44.6°N from the coast to more than 150 km offshore. Hydrographic observations were made during eleven cruises between July 1997 and April 1999 at stations on the Newport Hydrographic Line, which had been occupied regularly from 1961 to 1971. The data from the earlier decade provide a basis for defining ‘normal’ conditions and allow comparisons with the recent El Niño in terms of T, S, spiciness and geostrophic velocity. Independent of El Niño, the ocean in July 1997 was already anomalously warm offshore of 50 km and above 100 m. By September 1997 there were unambiguous indications of El Niño: isotherms and isohalines sloped down toward the coast indicating poleward flow over shelf and slope, and anomalously spicy water was present at the shelf-break. In November 1997 and February 1998 shelf-break waters were even warmer, and there was strong poleward flow inshore of 100 km, extending to depths greater than 200 m. The April 1998 section closely resembled that of April 1983 (another El Niño year) but by June 1998 the anomalies were mostly gone. November 1998 was near normal and the sections from subsequent cruises resemble the mean sections from 1961–1971.Four cruises between November 1997 and November 1998 included sampling at several latitudes between 38° and 45°N. As expected, these sections show significant alongshore gradients, but also a surprising degree of homogeneity in the anomalous features associated with El Niño (in the temperature, salinity, spiciness and geostrophic velocity fields). The anomalous signature of El Niño was stronger at its winter peak in 1998 than in 1983, but the signature in the temperature and spiciness fields, and in coastal sea level, did not persist as long as in 1983. By April 1999, the coastal ocean from 38°N to 45°N was significantly colder than it had been in April 1984.     

Altimeter-derived surface circulation in the large–scale NE Pacific Gyres. : Part 1. seasonal variability

The seasonal variability of sea surface height (SSH) and currents are defined by analysis of altimeter data in the NE Pacific Ocean over the region from Central America to the Alaska Gyre. The results help to clarify questions about the timing of seasonal maxima in the boundary currents. As explained below, the long-term temporal mean of the SSH values must be removed at each spatial point to remove the temporally invariant (and large) signal caused by the marine geoid. We refer to the resulting SSH values, which contain all of the temporal variations, as the ‘residual’ SSH. Our main findings are:

1. The maximum surface velocities around the boundaries of the cyclonic Alaska Gyre (the Alaska Current and the Alaska Stream) occur in winter, at the same time that the equatorward California Current is weakest or reversed (forming the poleward Davidson Current); the maximum surface velocities in the California Current occur in summer. These seasonal maxima are coincident with the large-scale atmospheric wind forcing over each region.

2. Most of the seasonal variability occurs as strong residuals in alongshore surface currents around the boundaries of the NE Pacific basin, directly connecting the boundaries of the subpolar gyre, the subtropical gyre and the Equatorial Current System.

3. Seasonal variability in the surface velocities of the eastward North Pacific Current (West Wind Drift) is weak in comparison to seasonal changes in the surface currents along the boundaries.

4. There is an initial appearance next to the coast and offshore migration of seasonal highs and lows in SSH, alongshore velocity and eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the Alaska Gyre, similar to the previously-described seasonal offshore migration in the California Current.

5. The seasonal development of high SSH and poleward current residuals next to the coast appear first off Central America and mainland Mexico in May–June, prior to their appearance in the southern part of the California Current in July–August and their eventual spread around the entire basin in November–December. Similarly, low SSH and equatorward transport residuals appear first off Central America and Mexico in January–February before spreading farther north in spring and summer.

6. The maximum values of EKE occur when each of the boundary currents are maximum.

A comparison of remote vs. local influence of El Niño on the coastal circulation of the northeast Pacific

A set of spatially nested circulation models is used to explore interannual change in the northeast Pacific (NEP) during 1997–2002, and remote vs. local influence of the 1997–1998 El Niño on this region. Our nested set is based on the primitive equations of motion, and includes a basin-scale model of the north Pacific at ∼40-km resolution (NPac), and a regional model of the Northeast Pacific at ∼10-km resolution. The NEP model spans an area from Baja California through the Bering Sea, from the coast to ∼2000-km offshore. In this context, “remote influence” refers to effects driven by changes in ocean velocity and temperature outside of the NEP domain; “local influence” refers to direct forcing by winds and runoff within the NEP domain. A base run of this model using hindcast winds and runoff for 1996–2002 replicates the dominant spatial modes of sea-surface height anomalies from satellite data, and coastal sea level from tide gauges. We have performed a series of sensitivity runs with the NEP model for 1997–1998, which analyze the response of coastal sea level to: (1) hindcast winds and coastal runoff, as compared to their monthly climatologies and (2) hindcast boundary conditions (from the NPac model), as compared to their monthly climatologies. Results indicate penetration of sea-surface height (SSH) from the basin-scale model into the NEP domain (e.g., remote influence), with propagation as coastal trapped waves from Baja up through Alaska. Most of the coastal sea-level anomaly off Alaska in El Niño years appears due to direct forcing by local winds and runoff (local influence), and such anomalies are much stronger than those produced off California. We quantify these effects as a function of distance along the coastline, and consider how they might impact the coastal ecosystems of the NEP.