Quantifying the coexistence of massive black holes and dense nuclear star clusters

In large spheroidal stellar systems, such as elliptical galaxies, one invariably finds a  10⁶–10⁹ M_⊙  supermassive black hole at their centre. In contrast, within dwarf elliptical galaxies one predominantly observes a  10⁵–10⁷ M_⊙  nuclear star cluster. To date, few galaxies have been found with both types of nuclei coexisting and even less have had the masses determined for both central components. Here, we identify one dozen galaxies housing nuclear star clusters and supermassive black holes whose masses have been measured. This doubles the known number of such hermaphrodite nuclei – which are expected to be fruitful sources of gravitational radiation. Over the host spheroid (stellar) mass range  10⁸–10¹¹ M_⊙  , we find that a galaxy's nucleus-to-spheroid (baryon) mass ratio is not a constant value but decreases from a few per cent to ∼0.3 per cent such that  log[( M _BH+ M _NC)/ M _sph]=−(0.39 ± 0.07) log[ M _sph/10¹⁰ M_⊙]− (2.18 ± 0.07)  . Once dry merging commences and the nuclear star clusters disappear, this ratio is expected to become a constant value.
As a byproduct of our investigation, we have found that the projected flux from resolved nuclear star clusters is well approximated with Sérsic functions having a range of indices from ∼0.5 to ∼3, the latter index describing the Milky Way's nuclear star cluster.     

On the galaxy stellar mass function, the mass–metallicity relation and the implied baryonic mass function

A comparison between published field galaxy stellar mass functions (GSMFs) shows that the cosmic stellar mass density is in the range 4–8 per cent of the baryon density (assuming  Ω_b= 0.045  ). There remain significant sources of uncertainty for the dust correction and underlying stellar mass-to-light ratio even assuming a reasonable universal stellar initial mass function. We determine the   z < 0.05  GSMF using the New York University Value-Added Galaxy Catalog sample of 49 968 galaxies derived from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and various estimates of stellar mass. The GSMF shows clear evidence for a low-mass upturn and is fitted with a double Schechter function that has  α₂≃−1.6  . At masses below  ∼10^8.5 M_⊙  , the GSMF may be significantly incomplete because of missing low-surface-brightness galaxies. One interpretation of the stellar mass–metallicity relation is that it is primarily caused by a lower fraction of available baryons converted to stars in low-mass galaxies. Using this principle, we determine a simple relationship between baryonic mass and stellar mass and present an 'implied baryonic mass function'. This function has a faint-end slope,  α₂≃−1.9  . Thus, we find evidence that the slope of the low-mass end of the galaxy mass function could plausibly be as steep as the halo mass function. We illustrate the relationship between halo baryonic mass function → galaxy baryonic mass function → GSMF. This demonstrates the requirement for peak galaxy formation efficiency at baryonic masses  ∼10¹¹ M_⊙  corresponding to a minimum in feedback effects. The baryonic-infall efficiency may have levelled off at lower masses.     

A top-heavy stellar initial mass function in starbursts as an explanation for the high mass-to-light ratios of ultra-compact dwarf galaxies

It has been recently shown that the dynamical V -band mass-to-light ratios of compact stellar systems with masses from 10⁶ to  10⁸ M_⊙  are not consistent with the predictions from simple stellar population models. Top-heavy stellar initial mass functions (IMFs) in these so-called ultra-compact dwarf galaxies (UCDs) offer an attractive explanation for this finding, the stellar remnants and retained stellar envelopes providing the unseen mass. We therefore construct a model which quantifies by how much the IMFs of UCDs would have to deviate in the intermediate- and high-mass range from the canonical IMF in order to account for the enhanced   M / L_V   ratio of the UCDs. The deduced high-mass IMF in the UCDs depends on the age of the UCDs and the number of faint products of stellar evolution retained by them. Assuming that the IMF in the UCDs is a three-part power law equal to the canonical IMF in the low-mass range and taking 20 per cent as a plausible choice for the fraction of the remnants of high-mass stars retained by UCDs, the model suggests the exponent of the high-mass IMF to be ≈1.6 if the UCDs are  13 Gyr  old (i.e. almost as old as the Universe) or ≈1.0 if the UCDs are  7 Gyr  old, in contrast to 2.3 for the Salpeter–Massey IMF. If the IMF was as top heavy as suggested here, the stability of the UCDs might have been threatened by heavy mass loss induced by the radiation and evolution of massive stars. The central densities of UCDs must have been in the range  10⁶ to 10⁷ M_⊙ pc⁻³  when they formed with star formation rates of  10 to 100 M_⊙ yr⁻¹  .     

The host galaxy of a narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxy, RE J1034+396, with X-ray quasi-periodic oscillations

Using simple stellar population synthesis, we model the bulge stellar contribution in the optical spectrum of a narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxy, RE J1034+396. We find that its bulge stellar velocity dispersion is  67.7 ± 8 km s⁻¹  . The supermassive black hole (SMBH) mass is about  (1–4) × 10⁶ M_⊙  if it follows the well-known   M _BH–σ_*  relation found in quiescent galaxies. We also derive the SMBH mass from the Hβ second moment, which is consistent with that from its bulge stellar velocity dispersion. The SMBH mass of (1–4)  × 10⁶ M_⊙  implies that the X-ray quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) of RE J1034+396 can be scaled to a high-frequency QPO at 27–108 Hz found in Galactic black hole binaries with a  10-M_⊙  black hole. With the mass distribution in different age stellar populations, we find that the mean specific star formation rate (SSFR) over the past 0.1 Gyr is  0.0163 ± 0.0011  Gyr⁻¹, the stellar mass in the logarithm is  10.155 ± 0.06  in units of solar mass and the current star formation rate is  0.23 ± 0.016 M_⊙ yr⁻¹  . For RE J1034+396, there is no relation between the Eddington ratio and the SSFR as suggested by Chen et al., despite a larger scatter in their relation. We also suggest that about 7.0 per cent of the total Hα luminosity and 50 per cent of the total [O  ii ] luminosity come from the star formation process.     

Unresolved emission and ionized gas in the bulge of M31

We study the origin of unresolved X-ray emission from the bulge of M31 based on archival Chandra and XMM–Newton observations. We demonstrate that three different components are present. (i) Broad-band emission from a large number of faint sources – mainly accreting white dwarfs and active binaries, associated with the old stellar population, similar to the Galactic ridge X-ray emission of the Milky Way. The X-ray to K -band luminosity ratios are compatible with those for the Milky Way and for M32; in the 2–10 keV band, the ratio is  (3.6 ± 0.2) × 10²⁷ erg s⁻¹ L⁻¹_⊙  . (ii) Soft emission from ionized gas with a temperature of about ∼300 eV and a mass of  ∼2 × 10⁶ M_⊙  . The gas distribution is significantly extended along the minor axis of the galaxy, suggesting that it may be outflowing in the direction perpendicular to the galactic disc. The mass and energy supply from evolved stars and Type Ia supernovae is sufficient to sustain the outflow. We also detect a shadow cast on the gas emission by spiral arms and the 10-kpc star-forming ring, confirming significant extent of the gas in the 'vertical' direction. (iii) Hard extended emission from spiral arms, most likely associated with young stellar objects and young stars located in the star-forming regions. The   L _X/SFR  (star formation rate) ratio equals  ∼9 × 10³⁸ (erg s⁻¹)(M_⊙ yr⁻¹)⁻¹  , which is about ∼1/3 of the high-mass X-ray binary contribution, determined earlier from Chandra observations of other nearby galaxies.     

The census of nuclear activity of late-type galaxies in the Virgo cluster

The first spectroscopic census of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) associated with late-type galaxies in the Virgo cluster was carried out by observing 213 out of a complete set of 237 galaxies more massive than   M _dyn > 10^8.5 M_⊙  . Among them, 77 are classified as AGNs [including 21 transition objects, 47 low-ionization nuclear emission regions (LINERs) and nine Seyferts] and comprise 32 per cent of the late-type galaxies in Virgo. Due to spectroscopic incompleteness, at most 21 AGNs are missed in the survey, so that the fraction would increase up to 41 per cent. Using corollary near-infrared observations that enable us to estimate galaxy dynamical masses, it is found that AGNs are hosted exclusively in massive galaxies, i.e.   M _dyn≳ 10¹⁰ M_⊙  . Their frequency increases steeply with the dynamical mass from zero at   M _dyn≈ 10^9.5 M_⊙  to virtually 1 at   M _dyn > 10^11.5 M_⊙  . These frequencies are consistent with those of low-luminosity AGNs found in the general field by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. Massive galaxies that harbour AGNs commonly show conspicuous r -band star-like nuclear enhancements. Conversely, they often, but not necessarily, contain massive bulges. A few well-known AGNs (e.g. M61, M100, NGC 4535) are found in massive Sc galaxies with little or no bulge. The AGN fraction seems to be only marginally sensitive to galaxy environment. We infer the black hole masses using the known scaling relations of quiescent black holes. No black holes lighter than  ∼10⁶ M_⊙  are found active in our sample.     

Dry mergers: a crucial test for galaxy formation

We investigate the role that dry mergers play in the build-up of massive galaxies within the cold dark matter paradigm. Implementing an empirical shut-off mass scale for star formation, we find a nearly constant dry merger rate of  ∼6 × 10⁻⁵ Mpc⁻³ Gyr⁻¹  at   z ≤ 1  and a steep decline at larger z . Less than half of these mergers are between two galaxies that are morphologically classified as early-types, and the other half is mostly between an early- and late-type galaxy. Latter are prime candidates for the origin of tidal features around red elliptical galaxies. The introduction of a transition mass scale for star formation has a strong impact on the evolution of galaxies, allowing them to grow above a characteristic mass scale of   M _{*, c} ∼ 6.3 × 10¹⁰ M_⊙  by mergers only. As a consequence of this transition, we find that around   M _{*, c}   , the fraction of 1:1 mergers is enhanced with respect to unequal mass major mergers. This suggests that it is possible to detect the existence of a transition mass scale by measuring the relative contribution of equal mass mergers to unequal mass mergers as a function of galaxy mass. The evolution of the high-mass end of the luminosity function is mainly driven by dry mergers at low z . We however find that only 10–20 per cent of galaxies more massive than   M _{*, c}   experience dry major mergers within their last Gyr at any given redshift   z ≤ 1  .     

Occurrence of metal-free galaxies in the early Universe

The character of the first galaxies at redshifts z ≳ 10 strongly depends on their level of pre-enrichment, which is in turn determined by the rate of primordial star formation prior to their assembly. In order for the first galaxies to remain metal-free, star formation in minihaloes must be highly suppressed, most likely by H₂-dissociating Lyman–Werner (LW) radiation. We show that the build-up of such a strong LW background is hindered by two effects. First, the level of the LW background is self-regulated, being produced by the Population III (Pop III) star formation which it, in turn, suppresses. Secondly, the high opacity to LW photons which is built up in the relic H  ii regions left by the first stars acts to diminish the global LW background. Accounting for a self-regulated LW background, we estimate a lower limit for the rate of Pop III star formation in minihaloes at z ≳ 15. Further, we simulate the formation of a 'first galaxy' with virial temperature   T _vir≳ 10⁴ K  and total mass  ≳10⁸ M_⊙  at z ≳ 10, and find that complete suppression of previous Pop III star formation is unlikely, with stars of  ≳100 M_⊙  (Pop III.1) and  ≳10 M_⊙  (Pop III.2) likely forming. Finally, we discuss the implications of these results for the nature of the first galaxies, which may be observed by future missions such as the James Webb Space Telescope .     

The growth of central and satellite galaxies in cosmological smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations

We examine the accretion and merger histories of central and satellite galaxies in a smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) cosmological simulation that resolves galaxies down to  7 × 10⁹ M_⊙  . Most friends-of-friends haloes in the simulation have a distinct central galaxy, typically 2–5 times more massive than the most massive satellite. As expected, satellites have systematically higher assembly redshifts than central galaxies of the same baryonic mass, and satellites in more massive haloes form earlier. However, contrary to the simplest expectations, satellite galaxies continue to accrete gas and convert it to stars; the gas accretion declines steadily over a period of 0.5–1 Gyr after the satellite halo merges with a larger parent halo. Satellites in a cluster mass halo eventually begin to lose baryonic mass. Typically, satellites in our simulation are 0.1–0.2 mag bluer than in models that assume no gas accretion on to satellites after a halo merger. Since   z = 1  , 27 per cent of central galaxies (above  3 × 10¹⁰ M_⊙  ) and 22 per cent of present-day satellite galaxies have merged with a smaller system above a 1:4 mass ratio; about half of the satellite mergers occurred after the galaxy became a satellite and half before. In effect, satellite galaxies can remain 'central' objects of halo substructures, with continuing accretion and mergers, making the transition in assembly histories and physical properties a gradual one. Implementing such a gradual transformation in semi-analytic models would improve their agreement with observed colour distributions of satellite galaxies in groups and with the observed colour dependence of galaxy clustering.     

The local star formation rate and radio luminosity density

We present a new determination of the local volume-averaged star formation rate from the 1.4-GHz luminosity function of star forming galaxies. Our sample, taken from the   B ≤12  Revised Shapley–Ames catalogue (231 normal spiral galaxies over an effective area of 7.1 sr) has ≃100 per cent complete radio detections and is insensitive to dust obscuration and cirrus contamination. After removal of known active galaxies, the best-fitting Schechter function has a faint-end slope of  −1.27±0.07  in agreement with the local H α luminosity function, characteristic luminosity   L ∗=(2.6±0.7)×10²² W Hz⁻¹  and density   φ ∗=(4.8±1.1)×10⁻⁴ Mpc⁻³.  The inferred local radio luminosity density of  (1.73±0.37±0.03)×10¹⁹ W Hz⁻¹ Mpc⁻³  (Poisson noise, large-scale structure fluctuations) implies a volume-averaged star formation rate ∼2 times larger than the Gallego et al. H α estimate, i.e.   ρ _1.4 GHz=(2.10±0.45±0.04)×10⁻² M_⊙ yr⁻¹ Mpc⁻³  for a Salpeter initial mass function from  0.1–125 M_⊙  and Hubble constant of 50 km s⁻¹ Mpc⁻¹. We demonstrate that the Balmer decrement is a highly unreliable extinction estimator, and argue that optical–ultraviolet (UV) star formation rates (SFRs) are easily underestimated, particularly at high redshift.     

Rates of tidal disruption of stars by massive central black holes

There is strong evidence for some kind of massive dark object in the centres of many galaxy bulges. The detection of flares from tidally disrupted stars could confirm that these objects are black holes (BHs). Here we present calculations of the stellar disruption rates in detailed dynamical models of real galaxies, taking into account the refilling of the loss cone of stars on disruptable orbits by two-body relaxation and tidal forces in non-spherical galaxies. The highest disruption rates (one star per 10⁴ yr) occur in faint ( L ≲10¹⁰ L_⊙) galaxies, which have steep central density cusps. More luminous galaxies are less dense and have much longer relaxation times and more massive BHs. Dwarf stars in such galaxies are swallowed whole by the BH and hence do not emit flares; giant stars could produce flares as often as every 10⁵ yr, although the rate depends sensitively on the shape of the stellar distribution function. We discuss the possibility of detecting disruption flares in current supernova searches. The total mass of stars consumed over the lifetime of the galaxy is of the order of 10⁶ M_⊙, independent of galaxy luminosity; thus, disrupted stars may contribute significantly to the present BH mass in galaxies fainter than ∼10⁹ L_⊙.     

Impact of cosmic rays on Population III star formation

We explore the implications of a possible cosmic-ray (CR) background generated during the first supernova explosions that end the brief lives of massive Population III stars. We show that such a CR background could have significantly influenced the cooling and collapse of primordial gas clouds in minihaloes around redshifts of   z ∼ 15–20  , provided the CR flux was sufficient to yield an ionization rate greater than about 10⁻¹⁹ s⁻¹ near the centre of the minihalo. The presence of CRs with energies  ≲10⁷  eV would indirectly enhance the molecular cooling in these regions, and we estimate that the resulting lower temperatures in these minihaloes would yield a characteristic stellar mass as low as  ∼10 M_⊙  . CRs have a less-pronounced effect on the cooling and collapse of primordial gas clouds inside more massive dark matter haloes with virial masses  ≳10⁸ M_⊙  at the later stages of cosmological structure formation around   z ∼ 10–15  . In these clouds, even without CR flux the molecular abundance is already sufficient to allow cooling to the floor set by the temperature of the cosmic microwave background.     

Two new large-separation gravitational lenses from SDSS

We present discovery images, together with follow-up imaging and spectroscopy, of two large-separation gravitational lenses found by our survey for wide arcs [the CAmbridge Sloan Survey Of Wide ARcs in the skY (CASSOWARY)]. The survey exploits the multicolour photometry of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey to find multiple blue components around red galaxies. CASSOWARY 2 (or 'the Cheshire Cat') is composed of two massive early-type galaxies at   z = 0.426  and 0.432, respectively, lensing two background sources, the first a star-forming galaxy at   z = 0.97  and the second a high -redshift galaxy  ( z > 1.4)  . There are at least three images of the former source and probably four or more of the latter, arranged in two giant arcs. The mass enclosed within the larger arc of radius ∼11 arcsec is  ∼33 × 10¹² M_⊙  . CASSOWARY 3 comprises an arc of three bright images of a   z = 0.725  source, lensed by a foreground elliptical at   z = 0.274  . The radius of the arc is ∼4 arcsec and the enclosed mass is  ∼2.5 × 10¹² M_⊙  . Together with earlier discoveries like the Cosmic Horseshoe and the 8 o'clock Arc, these new systems, with separations intermediate between the arcsecond-separation lenses of typical strong galaxy lensing and arcminute-separation cluster lenses, probe the very high end of the galaxy mass function.     

On the formation of massive galaxies: a simultaneous study of number density, size and intrinsic colour evolution in GOODS

The evolution of number density, size and intrinsic colour is determined for a volume-limited sample of visually classified early-type galaxies selected from the Hubble Space Telescope /Advanced Camera for Surveys images of the Great Observatories Origins Deep Survey (GOODS) North and South fields (version 2). The sample comprises 457 galaxies over 320 arcmin² with stellar masses above  3 × 10¹⁰ M_⊙  in the redshift range  0.4 < z < 1.2  . Our data allow a simultaneous study of number density, intrinsic colour distribution and size. We find that the most massive systems  (≳3 × 10¹¹ M_⊙)  do not show any appreciable change in comoving number density or size in our data. Furthermore, when including the results from 2dF galaxy redshift survey, we find that the number density of massive early-type galaxies is consistent with no evolution between   z = 1.2  and 0, i.e. over an epoch spanning more than half of the current age of the Universe. We find large discrepancies between the predictions of semi-analytic models. Massive galaxies show very homogeneous intrinsic colour distributions, with nearly flat radial colour gradients, but with a significant negative correlation between stellar mass and colour gradient, such that red cores appear predominantly in massive galaxies. The distribution of half-light radii – when compared to   z ∼ 0  and   z > 1  samples – is compatible with the predictions of semi-analytic models relating size evolution to the amount of dissipation during major mergers.     

Australia Telescope Compact Array H i observations of the NGC 6845 galaxy group

We present the results of Australia Telescope Compact Array (ATCA) H  i line and 20-cm radio continuum observations of the galaxy quartet NGC 6845. The H  i emission extends over all four galaxies but can only be associated clearly with the two spiral galaxies, NGC 6845A and B, which show signs of strong tidal interaction. We derive a total H  i mass of at least  1.8 × 10¹⁰ M_⊙  , most of which is associated with NGC 6845A, the largest galaxy of the group. We investigate the tidal interaction between NGC 6845A and B by studying the kinematics of distinct H  i components and their relation to the known H  ii regions. No H  i emission is detected from the two lenticular galaxies, NGC 6845C and D. A previously uncatalogued dwarf galaxy, ATCA  J2001−4659  , was detected 4.4 arcmin NE from NGC 6845B and has an H  i mass of  ∼5 × 10⁸ M_⊙  . No H  i bridge is visible between the group and its newly detected companion. Extended 20-cm radio continuum emission is detected in NGC 6845A and B as well as in the tidal bridge between the two galaxies. We derive star formation rates of  15–40 M_⊙ yr⁻¹  .     

Magnetically collimated jets with high mass flux

We present HST /WFPC2 observations of UGC 4483, an irregular galaxy in the M81/NGC 2403 complex. Stellar photometry was carried out with HSTphot, and is complete to V ≃26.0 and I ≃24.7. We measure the red giant branch tip at I =23.56±0.10, and calculate a distance modulus of μ ₀=27.53±0.12 (corresponding to a distance of 3.2±0.2 Mpc), placing UGC 4483 within the NGC 2403 subgroup. We were able to measure properties of a previously known young star cluster in UGC 4483, finding integrated magnitudes of V =18.66±0.21 and I =18.54±0.10 for the stellar contribution (integrated light minus H α and [O  iii ] contribution), corresponding to an age of ∼10–15 Myr and an initial mass of ∼10⁴ M_⊙. This is consistent with the properties of the cluster's brightest stars, which were resolved in the data for the first time. Finally, a numerical analysis of the galaxy's stellar content yields a roughly constant star formation rate of 1.3×10⁻³ M_⊙ yr⁻¹ and mean metallicity of [Fe/H]=−1.3 dex from 15 Gyr ago to the present.     

Further constraints on the evolution of Ks-selected galaxies in the GOODS/CDFS field

We have selected and analysed the properties of a sample of  2905 K_s < 21.5  galaxies in  ∼131 arcmin²  of the Great Observatories Origins Deep Survey (GOODS) Chandra Deep Field South (CDFS), to obtain further constraints on the evolution of K_s -selected galaxies with respect to the results already obtained in previous studies. We made use of the public deep multiwavelength imaging from the optical B through the infrared (IR) 4.5-μm bands, in conjunction with available spectroscopic and COMBO17 data in the CDFS, to construct an optimized redshift catalogue for our galaxy sample. We computed the K_s -band luminosity function and determined that its characteristic magnitude has a substantial brightening and a decreasing total density from   z = 0  to  〈 z 〉= 2.5  . We also analysed the colours and number density evolution of galaxies with different stellar masses. Within our sample, and in contrast to what is observed for less massive systems, the vast majority (∼85–90 per cent) of the most massive  ( M > 2.5 × 10¹¹ M_⊙)  local galaxies appear to be in place before redshift   z ∼ 1  . Around 65–70 per cent of the total assemble between redshifts   z = 1  and 3 and most of them display extremely red colours, suggesting that plausible star formation in these very massive systems should mainly proceed in obscured, short-time-scale bursts. The remaining fraction (up to ∼20 per cent) could be in place at even higher redshifts   z = 3–4  , pushing the first epoch of formation of massive galaxies beyond the limits of current near-IR surveys.     

Lyman break galaxies at z= 4–6 in cosmological smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations

We perform a spectrophotometric analysis of galaxies at redshifts z = 4–6 in cosmological smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations of a Λ cold dark matter universe. Our models include radiative cooling and heating by a uniform ultraviolet (UV) background, star formation, supernova feedback, and a phenomenological model for galactic winds. Analysing a series of simulations of varying box size and particle number allows us to isolate the impact of numerical resolution on our results. Specifically, we determine the luminosity functions in B , V , R , i ' and z ' filters, and compare the results with observational surveys of Lyman break galaxies (LBGs) performed with the Subaru telescope and the Hubble Space Telescope . We find that the simulated galaxies have UV colours consistent with observations and fall in the expected region of the colour–colour diagrams used by the Subaru group. The stellar masses of the most massive galaxies in our largest simulation increase their stellar mass from   M _★∼ 10¹¹ M_⊙  at z = 6 to   M _★∼ 10^11.7 M_⊙  at z = 3. Assuming a uniform extinction of E ( B − V ) = 0.15, we also find reasonable agreement between simulations and observations in the space density of UV bright galaxies at z = 3–6, down to the magnitude limit of each survey. For the same moderate extinction level of E ( B − V ) ∼ 0.15, the simulated luminosity functions match observational data, but have a steep faint-end slope with α∼−2.0. We discuss the implications of the steep faint-end slope found in the simulations. Our results confirm the generic conclusion from earlier numerical studies that UV bright LBGs at z ≥ 3 are the most massive galaxies with E ( B − V ) ∼ 0.15 at each epoch.     

Masses for the Local Group and the Milky Way

We use the very large Millennium Simulation of the concordance Λ cold dark matter cosmogony to calibrate the bias and error distribution of Timing Argument estimators of the masses of the Local Group and of the Milky Way. From a large number of isolated spiral–spiral pairs similar to the Milky Way/Andromeda system, we find the interquartile range of the ratio of timing mass to true mass to be a factor of 1.8, while the 5 and 95 per cent points of the distribution of this ratio are separated by a factor of 5.7. Here, we define true mass as the sum of the 'virial' masses, M ₂₀₀, of the two dominant galaxies. For present best values of the distance and approach velocity of Andromeda, this leads to a median likelihood estimate of the true mass of the Local Group of  5.27 × 10¹² M_⊙  or  log  M _LG/M_⊙= 12.72  , with an interquartile range of [12.58, 12.83] and a 5–95 per cent range of [12.26, 13.01]. Thus, a 95 per cent lower confidence limit on the true mass of the Local Group is  1.81 × 10¹² M_⊙  . A timing estimate of the Milky Way's mass based on the large recession velocity observed for the distant satellite Leo I works equally well, although with larger systematic uncertainties. It gives an estimated virial mass for the Milky Way of  2.43 × 10¹² M_⊙  with a 95 per cent lower confidence limit of  0.80 × 10¹² M_⊙  .