The Interplanetary Responses to the Great Solar Activities in Late October 2003

Based on the observations of the Sun and the interplanetary medium, a series of solar activities in late October 2003 and their consequences are studied comprehensively. Thirteen X-ray flares with importance greater than M-class, six frontside halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) with span angle larger than 100 and three associated eruptions of filament materials are identified by examining lots of solar observations from October 26 to 29. All these flares were associated with type III radio bursts, all the frontside halo CMEs were accompanied by type II or type II-like radio bursts. Particularly, among these activities, two major solar events caused two extraordinary enhancements (exceeding 1000 particles/(cm²s^–1sterMev^–1) of solar energetic particle (SEP) flux intensity near the Earth, two large ejecta with fast shocks preceding, and two great geomagnetic storms with Dst peak value of –363 and –401 nT, respectively. By using a cross correlation technique and a force-free cylindrical flux rope model, the October 29 magnetic cloud associated with the largest CME are analyzed, including its orientation and the sign of its helicity. It is found that the helicity of the cloud is negative, contrary to the regular statistical pattern that negative- and positive-helical interplanetary magnetic clouds would be expected to come from northern and southern solar hemisphere. Moreover, the relationship between the orientation of magnetic cloud and associated filament is discussed. In addition, some discussion concerning multiple-magnetic-cloud structures and SEP events is also given.     

Progressive Transformation of a Flux Rope to an ICME

The solar wind conditions at one astronomical unit (AU) can be strongly disturbed by interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). A subset, called magnetic clouds (MCs), is formed by twisted flux ropes that transport an important amount of magnetic flux and helicity, which is released in CMEs. At 1 AU from the Sun, the magnetic structure of MCs is generally modeled by neglecting their expansion during the spacecraft crossing. However, in some cases, MCs present a significant expansion. We present here an analysis of the huge and significantly expanding MC observed by the Wind spacecraft during 9 – 10 November 2004. This MC was embedded in an ICME. After determining an approximate orientation for the flux rope using the minimum variance method, we obtain a precise orientation of the cloud axis by relating its front and rear magnetic discontinuities using a direct method. This method takes into account the conservation of the azimuthal magnetic flux between the inbound and outbound branches and is valid for a finite impact parameter (i.e., not necessarily a small distance between the spacecraft trajectory and the cloud axis). The MC is also studied using dynamic models with isotropic expansion. We have found (6.2±1.5)×10²⁰ Mx for the axial flux and (78±18)×10²⁰ Mx for the azimuthal flux. Moreover, using the direct method, we find that the ICME is formed by a flux rope (MC) followed by an extended coherent magnetic region. These observations are interpreted by considering the existence of a previously larger flux rope, which partially reconnected with its environment in the front. We estimate that the reconnection process started close to the Sun. These findings imply that the ejected flux rope is progressively peeled by reconnection and transformed to the observed ICME (with a remnant flux rope in the front part).     

Long-term behavior of latitudinal cosmic-ray gradients

We have used neutron monitor data covering a wide range of energy over a period of 22 years (1966–1987), as well as sea-level multidirectional meson telescope data from Nagoya to examine the latitude effect of solar diurnal vectors and its dependence on the polarity of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). By sorting the daily cosmic-ray data according to whether the IMF is toward (T) or away (A) from the Sun, the annual mean solar diurnal variations (amplitude and phase) for the T and A days were determined separately. Results showed a northward-pointing latitudinal gradient from neutron monitors of the most northerly latitudes, and a predominant southward gradient at high southerly latitudes. The resultant latitudinal cosmic-ray gradients are the sum of two gradients: a north-south symmetry gradient (occurring in minimum and maximum solar activity years), and a north-south asymmetry gradient (occurring during different phases of solar activity cycles). The difference vector (T - A) between the solar diurnal vector for two groups was calculated, which represents a good indicator for the resultant perpendicular gradient relative to the Earth. This difference vector shows a considerable change in phase for detectors located in the northern hemisphere of the Earth. On the other hand, there exists much less change in phase for detectors located in the southern hemisphere.     

Soft X-ray Solar Activities Associated with Interplanetary Magnetic Flux Ropes

We studied the soft X-ray solar events that could be associated with the interplanetary magnetic flux ropes observed by the WIND satellite during 1995 through 1998. The timings of the launches of the magnetic flux ropes from the Sun were estimated using flux rope speeds derived by the fitting of a cylindrical model. In the reasonable time window, soft X-ray solar signatures were found in approximately 70% of the flux ropes. Parameters (e.g., axis direction, strength of magnetic field, radius, and helicity) of the magnetic flux ropes obtained by the model fitting were compared with the characteristics of the corresponding soft X-ray events observed by Yohkoh. According to the result of the comparison, the magnetic flux ropes with strong magnetic fields or high speeds were observed in association with higher soft X-ray solar activities.     

The Formation of Large-Scale Current Sheets within Magnetic Clouds

Magnetic clouds are a class of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (CME) predominantly characterised by a smooth rotation in the magnetic field direction, indicative of a magnetic flux rope structure. Many magnetic clouds, however, also contain sharp discontinuities within the smoothly varying magnetic field, suggestive of narrow current sheets. In this study we present observations and modelling of magnetic clouds with strong current sheet signatures close to the centre of the apparent flux rope structure. Using an analytical magnetic flux rope model, we demonstrate how such current sheets can form as a result of a cloud’s kinematic propagation from the Sun to the Earth, without any external forces or influences. This model is shown to match observations of four particular magnetic clouds remarkably well. The model predicts that current sheet intensity increases for increasing CME angular extent and decreasing CME radial expansion speed. Assuming such current sheets facilitate magnetic reconnection, the process of current sheet formation could ultimately lead a single flux rope becoming fragmented into multiple flux ropes. This change in topology has consequences for magnetic clouds as barriers to energetic particle propagation.     

Solar effects on the cosmic ray intensity observed at 70 m.w.e. underground

We have correlated intensity decreases in the galactic component of cosmic rays observed at the Earth with solar phenomena. We have found that there exist intensity decreases detected underground, which are probably associated with long-lived interplanetary streams and which are not directly associated with single flares. We expect to detect the streams with underground monitors before the arrival of the streams at the Earth. The early detection will be in the northern or in the southern hemisphere, depending on the sign of the interplanetary field.     

Determining the Intrinsic CME Flux Rope Type Using Remote-sensing Solar Disk Observations

A key aim in space weather research is to be able to use remote-sensing observations of the solar atmosphere to extend the lead time of predicting the geoeffectiveness of a coronal mass ejection (CME). In order to achieve this, the magnetic structure of the CME as it leaves the Sun must be known. In this article we address this issue by developing a method to determine the intrinsic flux rope type of a CME solely from solar disk observations. We use several well-known proxies for the magnetic helicity sign, the axis orientation, and the axial magnetic field direction to predict the magnetic structure of the interplanetary flux rope. We present two case studies: the 2 June 2011 and the 14 June 2012 CMEs. Both of these events erupted from an active region, and despite having clear in situ counterparts, their eruption characteristics were relatively complex. The first event was associated with an active region filament that erupted in two stages, while for the other event the eruption originated from a relatively high coronal altitude and the source region did not feature a filament. Our magnetic helicity sign proxies include the analysis of magnetic tongues, soft X-ray and/or extreme-ultraviolet sigmoids, coronal arcade skew, filament emission and absorption threads, and filament rotation. Since the inclination of the post-eruption arcades was not clear, we use the tilt of the polarity inversion line to determine the flux rope axis orientation and coronal dimmings to determine the flux rope footpoints, and therefore, the direction of the axial magnetic field. The comparison of the estimated intrinsic flux rope structure to in situ observations at the Lagrangian point L1 indicated a good agreement with the predictions. Our results highlight the flux rope type determination techniques that are particularly useful for active region eruptions, where most geoeffective CMEs originate.     

Large-Scale Structure of the Sunspot Activity and the Background Magnetic Field Formation

Large-scale distribution of the sunspot activity of the Sun has been analyzed by using a technique worked out previously (Erofeev, 1997) to study long-lived, non-axisymmetric magnetic structures with different periods of rotation. Results of the analysis have been compared with those obtained by analyzing both the solar large-scale magnetic field and large-scale magnetic field simulated by means of the well-known flux transport equation using the sunspot groups as a sole source of new magnetic flux in the photosphere. A 21-year period (1964–1985) has been examined.The rotation spectra calculated for the total time interval of two 11-year cycles indicate that sunspot activity consists of a series of discrete components (modes) with different periods of rotation. The largest-scale component of the sunspot activity reveals modes with 27-day and 28-day periods of rotation situated, correspondingly, in the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun, and two modes with rotation periods of about 29.7 days situated in both hemispheres. Such a modal structure of the sunspot activity agrees well with that of the large-scale solar magnetic field. Moreover, the magnetic field distribution simulated with the flux transport equation also reveals the same modal structure. However, such an agreement between the large-scale solar magnetic field and both the sunspot activity and simulated magnetic field is unstable in time; so, it is absent in the northern hemisphere of the Sun during solar cycle No. 20. Thus the sources of magnetic flux responsible for formation of the large-scale, rigidly rotating magnetic patterns appear to be closely connected, but are not identical with the discrete modes of the sunspot activity.     

Response of peak electron densities in the martian ionosphere to day-to-day changes in solar flux due to solar rotation

Photochemical Chapman theory predicts that the square of peak electron density, N_m, in the dayside ionosphere of Mars is proportional to the cosine of solar zenith angle. We use Mars Global Surveyor Radio Science profiles of electron density to demonstrate that this relationship is generally satisfied and that positive or negative residuals between observed and predicted values of are caused by periods of relatively high or low solar flux, respectively.Understanding the response of the martian ionosphere to changes in solar flux requires simultaneous observations of the martian ionosphere and of solar flux at Mars, but solar flux measurements are only available at Earth. Since the Sun's output varies both in time and with solar latitude and longitude, solar flux at Mars is not simply related to solar flux at Earth by an inverse-square law. We hypothesize that, when corrected for differing distances from the Sun, solar fluxes at Mars and Earth are identical when shifted in time by the interval necessary for the Sun to rotate through the Earth–Sun–Mars angle.We perform four case studies that quantitatively compare time series of N_m at Mars to time series of solar flux at Earth and find that our hypothesis is satisfied in the three of them that used ionospheric data from the northern hemisphere. We define a solar flux proxy at Mars based upon the E_10.7 proxy for solar flux at Earth and use our best case study to derive an equation that relates N_m to this proxy. We discuss how the ionosphere of Mars can be used to infer the presence of solar active regions not facing the Earth.Our fourth case study uses ionospheric observations from the southern hemisphere at latitudes where there are strong crustal magnetic anomalies. These profiles do not have Chapman-like shapes, unlike those of the other three case studies. We split this set of measurements into two subsets, corresponding to whether or not they were made at longitudes with strong crustal magnetic anomalies. Neither subset shows N_m responding to changes in solar flux in the manner that we observe in the three other case studies.We find many similarities in ionospheric responses to short-term and long-term changes in solar flux for Venus, Earth, and Mars. We consider the implications of our results for different parametric equations that have been published describing this response.     

Multi-Spacecraft Study of the 21 January 2005 ICME

We examine the near-Earth Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) apparently related to the intense Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event of 20 January 2005. Our purpose is to contribute to the understanding of the macroscopic structure, evolution and dynamics of the solar corona and heliosphere. Using Cluster, ACE and Wind data in the solar wind, and Geotail data in the magnetosheath, we perform a multi-spacecraft analysis of the ICME-driven shock, post-shock magnetic discontinuities and ejecta. Traversals by the well-separated near-Earth spacecraft provide a coherent picture of the ICME geometry. Following the shock, the ICME sequence starts with a hot pileup, i.e.,? a sheath, followed by a fast ejecta characterised by a non-compressive density enhancement (NCDE), which is caused essentially by an enrichment in helium. The plasma and magnetic observations of the ejecta are consistent with the outskirts of a structure in strong expansion, consisting of nested magnetic loops still connected to the Sun. Within the leading edge of the ejecta, we establish the presence of a tilted current sheet substructure. An analysis of the observations suggests that the tilted current sheet is draped within the overlying cloud canopy, ahead of a magnetic cloud-like structure. The flux rope interpretation of this structure near L1, confirmed by observations of the corresponding magnetic cloud, provided by Ulysses at 5.3 AU and away from the Sun?–?Earth line, indicates that the bulk of the cloud is in the northwest sector as seen from the Earth, with its axis nearly perpendicular to the ecliptic. This is consistent with the primary direction of travel of the fast halo CME observed at the Sun. Moreover, the NCDE and helium enrichment are consistent with the position near the streamer belt of the flaring active region NOAA 10720 associated with the CME. However, differences between interplanetary and solar observations indicate a large rotation of the erupting filament and overlying arcade, which can be attributed to the flux rope being subject to the helical kink instability.     

Dynamics of the circumpolar magnetic field of the Sun at a maximum of cycle 24

Data on the value and sign of the circumpolar magnetic field of the Sun at a maximum of its activity in cycle 24 have been analyzed. The data were obtained from observations at the Wilcox Solar Observatory and from synoptic maps of the magnetic field built in the SOLIS project (SOLIS stands for Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun) and with the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI). We studied the dynamics of the total magnetic fields in the circumpolar latitudinal zones of different extension in the northern and southern hemispheres. The epochs of the sign reversal of the polar magnetic field were determined. It was found that, in cycle 24, the magnetic field polarity changed three times in the northern hemisphere and only once in the southern one. In the northern hemisphere, the reversal of the polar magnetic field finished approximately a year earlier than that in the southern one. The obtained results are compared to the data on the sign reversal of the polar magnetic field of the Sun reported for the previous solar cycles.     

A Comparative Study of Coronal Mass Ejections with and Without Magnetic Cloud Structure near the Earth: Are All Interplanetary CMEs Flux Ropes?

An outstanding question concerning interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) is whether all ICMEs have a magnetic flux rope structure. We test this question by studying two different ICMEs, one having a magnetic cloud (MC) showing smooth rotation of magnetic field lines and the other not. The two ICMEs are chosen in such a way that their progenitor CMEs are very similar in remote sensing observations. Both CMEs originated from close to the central meridian directly facing the Earth. Both CMEs were associated with a long-lasting post-eruption loop arcade and appeared as an elliptical halo in coronagraph images, indicating a flux rope origin. We conclude that the difference in the in-situ observation is caused by the geometric selection effect, contributed by the deflection of flux ropes in the inner corona and interplanetary space. The first event had its nose pass through the observing spacecraft; thus, the intrinsic flux rope structure of the CME appeared as a magnetic cloud. On the other hand, the second event had the flank of the flux rope intercept the spacecraft, and it thus did not appear as a magnetic cloud. We further argue that a conspicuous long period of weak magnetic field, low plasma temperature, and density in the second event should correspond to the extended leg portion of the embedded magnetic flux rope, thus validating the scenario of the flank-passing. These observations support the idea that all CMEs arriving at the Earth include flux rope drivers.     

Phase Relationship Between Sunspot Number, Flare Index and Solar Radio Flux

To understand better the variation of solar activity indicators originated at different layers of the solar atmosphere with respect to sunspot cycles, we carried out a study of phase relationship between sunspot number, flare index and solar radio flux at 2800 MHz from January 1966 to May 2008 by using cross-correlation analysis. The main results are as follows: (1) The flare index and sunspot number have synchronous phase for cycles 21 and 22 in the northern hemisphere and for cycle 20 in the southern hemisphere. (2) The flare index has a noticeable time lead with respect to sunspot number for cycles 20 and 23 in the northern hemisphere and for cycles 22 and 23 in the southern hemisphere. (3) For the entire Sun, the flare index has a noticeable time lead for cycles 20 and 23, a time lag for cycle 21, and no time lag or time lead for cycle 22 with respect to sunspot number. (4) The solar radio flux has a time lag for cycles 22 and 23 and no time lag or time lead for cycles 20 and 21 with respect to sunspot number. (5) For the four cycles, the sunspot number and flare index in the northern hemisphere are all leading to the ones in the southern hemisphere. These results may be instructive to the physical processes of flare energy storage and dissipation.     

A Study of the Earth-Affecting CMEs of Solar Cycle 24

Using in situ observations from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), we have identified 70 Earth-affecting interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) in Solar Cycle 24. Because of the unprecedented extent of heliospheric observations in Cycle 24 that has been achieved thanks to the Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI) instruments onboard the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO), we observe these events throughout the heliosphere from the Sun to the Earth, and we can relate these in situ signatures to remote sensing data. This allows us to completely track the event back to the source of the eruption in the low corona. We present a summary of the Earth-affecting CMEs in Solar Cycle 24 and a statistical study of the properties of these events including the source region. We examine the characteristics of CMEs that are more likely to be strongly geoeffective and examine the effect of the flare strength on in situ properties. We find that Earth-affecting CMEs in the first half of Cycle 24 are more likely to come from the northern hemisphere, but after April 2012, this reverses, and these events are more likely to originate in the southern hemisphere, following the observed magnetic asymmetry in the two hemispheres. We also find that as in past solar cycles, CMEs from the western hemisphere are more likely to reach Earth. We find that Cycle 24 lacks in events driving extreme geomagnetic storms compared to past solar cycles.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">In Situ</Emphasis> Signatures of Interchange Reconnection between Magnetic Clouds and Open Magnetic Fields: A Mechanism for the Erosion of Polar Coronal Holes?

We outline a method to determine the direction of solar open flux transport that results from the opening of magnetic clouds (MCs) by interchange reconnection at the Sun based solely on in-situ observations. This method uses established findings about i) the locations and magnetic polarities of emerging MC footpoints, ii) the hemispheric dependence of the helicity of MCs, and iii) the occurrence of interchange reconnection at the Sun being signaled by uni-directional suprathermal electrons inside MCs. Combining those observational facts in a statistical analysis of MCs during solar cycle 23 (period 1995 – 2007), we show that the time of disappearance of the northern polar coronal hole (1998 – 1999), permeated by an outward-pointing magnetic field, is associated with a peak in the number of MCs originating from the northern hemisphere and connected to the Sun by outward-pointing magnetic field lines. A similar peak is observed in the number of MCs originating from the southern hemisphere and connected to the Sun by inward-pointing magnetic field lines. This pattern is interpreted as the result of interchange reconnection occurring between MCs and the open field lines of nearby polar coronal holes. This reconnection process closes down polar coronal hole open field lines and transports these open field lines equatorward, thus contributing to the global coronal magnetic field reversal process. These results will be further constrainable with the rising phase of solar cycle 24.     

Evolution and flare productivity of active regions in October–November 2003

In the current solar cycle, the concentration of flare activity peaked during the period from October 19 to November 5, 2003, 3.5 years after the maximum point of the current solar-activity cycle. During this time, 56 high-(16) and medium-class flares occurred on the Sun, including 11 X flares. The flux of every such flare exceeded by a factor of 30 to 600 the 1–8 Å soft X-ray background flux of the entire Sun during flare-free periods. The disturbances caused by these flares produced six major S2-to S4-level proton events and four G1-to G5-class magnetic storms in the Earth’s space environment. Among the solar events observed were the most powerful X-ray flare of the current solar cycle, the eighth solar proton event in terms of particle flux during the entire history of observations, and the seventh magnetic storm in terms of Ap index. The most powerful flare resulted in the fastest coronal mass ejection during the current solar cycle with the solar plasma moving through interplanetary space at a velocity of 10⁶ km/s, which is about four times higher than the average velocity. Severe magnetic storms during the period from September 29 through October 3 posed a lot of problems for research and technological satellites (Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), Aqua, Chandra, Chips, Cluster, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) 9, 10, and 12, etc.) and spacecraft in interplanetary space (Mars Explorer Rover and Microwave Anisotropy Probe). The Advanced Earth Observing Satellite 2 (ADEOS 2), a Japanese satellite for monitoring the Earth’s environment, was disabled at the time of the arrival of the powerful interplanetary shock from the superflare of October 28, 2003. During this period, the ISS astronauts were forced to escape into the aft part of the station five times, which ensured the strongest protection against radiation. This paper is dedicated to the study of the solar situation and individual flare events.     

Propagation of solar flare-associated interplanetary shock waves in the heliospheric meridional plane

We have analyzed 149 flare-associated shock wave events based on interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observational data. All of the flare-associated shock waves tend to propagate toward the low latitude region near the solar equator for flares that are located in both the solar northern and southern hemispheres. Also, the fastest propagation directions tend toward the heliospheric current sheet near 1 AU. We suggest that this tendency is caused by the dynamic action of near-Sun magnetic forces on the ejected coronal plasma that traverses the helmet-like magnetic topologies near the Sun outward to the classical topology that is essentially parallel to the heliospheric current sheet.     

Eleven-years inversion of the green corona emission

A cross-correlation analysis of coronal green line intensity (5303 Å) and interplanetary magnetic field polarity for the period 1947–1970 shows that the coronal features are organized in a constant pattern with respect to the 4-sector structure through the solar cycle. A sudden inversion of the coronal pattern with respect to the sector structure takes place at the solar minima. The high emission regions of the green corona are located near the solar magnetic sector boundaries having polarities (?, +), (+, ?), (?, +) during cycles 18, 19, 20 respectively in the northern hemisphere, and (+, ?), (?, +), (+, ?) in the southern hemisphere.     

On Flare-CME Characteristics from Sun to Earth Combining Remote-Sensing Image Data with <Emphasis Type="Italic">In Situ</Emphasis> Measurements Supported by Modeling

We analyze the well-observed flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) from 1 October 2011 (SOL2011-10-01T09:18) covering the complete chain of effects – from Sun to Earth – to better understand the dynamic evolution of the CME and its embedded magnetic field. We study in detail the solar surface and atmosphere associated with the flare and CME using the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and ground-based instruments. We also track the CME signature off-limb with combined extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and white-light data from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO). By applying the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) reconstruction method and total mass to stereoscopic STEREO-SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) coronagraph data, we track the temporal and spatial evolution of the CME in the interplanetary space and derive its geometry and 3D mass. We combine the GCS and Lundquist model results to derive the axial flux and helicity of the magnetic cloud (MC) from in situ measurements from Wind. This is compared to nonlinear force-free (NLFF) model results, as well as to the reconnected magnetic flux derived from the flare ribbons (flare reconnection flux) and the magnetic flux encompassed by the associated dimming (dimming flux). We find that magnetic reconnection processes were already ongoing before the start of the impulsive flare phase, adding magnetic flux to the flux rope before its final eruption. The dimming flux increases by more than 25% after the end of the flare, indicating that magnetic flux is still added to the flux rope after eruption. Hence, the derived flare reconnection flux is most probably a lower limit for estimating the magnetic flux within the flux rope. We find that the magnetic helicity and axial magnetic flux are lower in the interplanetary space by ～?50% and 75%, respectively, possibly indicating an erosion process. A CME mass increase of 10% is observed over a range of \({\sim}\,4\,\mbox{--}\,20~\mathrm{R}_{\odot }\). The temporal evolution of the CME-associated core-dimming regions supports the scenario that fast outflows might supply additional mass to the rear part of the CME.