Using a radiative-convective model to estimate the temperature potential of greenhouse gases

A comprehensive approach is proposed to the construction of an equilibrium global warming potential with the use of a radiative-convective model of climate and the line-by-line calculations of the characteristics of radiative transfer in the atmosphere on the basis of analysis and comparison of different methods of estimating emission metrics. The studies conducted in the past decade have demonstrated that a widely used method of calculating the global warming potential for methane and other trace greenhouse gases is applicable only to relatively small time horizons (within 100 years). The proposed equilibrium global warming potential makes it possible to consider a set of equilibrium states of the Earth’s climate system under variations in the contents of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and to estimate the parameters of the system’s response to such variations for arbitrary time intervals. Analysis of a set of different equilibrium states makes it possible to assess a relative contribution of different anthropogenic pollutants to radiation balance and, hence, to a change in the Earth’s climatic regime.     

The atmospheric distribution of lead over a number of marine regions

A data base of 111 filter-collected marine atmospheric particulates is used to describe the distribution of lead over the North and South Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea, the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and the northern and central Arabian Sea. The distribution of atmospheric Pb is assessed in terms of enrichment factor diagrams, and it is shown that over the marine regions studied in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres the distribution of Pb in the atmosphere is controlled by the mixing of a background component, or components, with crustal material within certain concentration limits. For the Northern Hemisphere samples used in the investigation there is a reasonably well-defined Pb concentration minimum of ～ 0.6 ng m^?3 of air; however, this will be severely decreased in more remote Northern Hemisphere marine regions. Geometric average Pb atmospheric concentrations vary from one marine region to another, ranging from ～ 0.98 ng m^?3 of air for the South Atlantic westerlies to ～ 15 ng m^?3 of air in the North Atlantic westerlies; although the latter reduces to ～ 7 ng m^?3 of air when ‘polluted’ samples are excluded. Lead sea-surface deposition fluxes are calculated on the basis of two deposition velocities (0.25 and 1 cm s^?1), the largest flux (220 ng Pb cm^?2 yr^?1) being found for the westerlies over the eastern margins of the North Atlantic. The distribution of lead over the North Atlantic is assessed in terms of the global lead budget and it is estimated that a maximum of ～ 24% of the total ‘natural’ lead injected annually into the World atmosphere, and ～ 3.5% of the anthropogenic lead injected annually into the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere, are deposited over the North Atlantic sea surface.     

Some features of seasonal variations in the methane content in the atmosphere over northern Eurasia

The climatic trends and basic features of seasonal variations in and anomalies of the concentration of methane in the atmospheric surface layer are considered on the basis of the current notion of the processes that form the global field of methane in the Earth’s atmosphere. Measurement data on the surface concentration of methane, which were obtained in Moscow and at a number of observation stations in Europe and Siberia in the fall-winter period of the first decade of the 21st century, have been analyzed. It is shown that, in the anomalously warm winter months of 2006/2007, the concentration of methane in the atmosphere over Moscow was higher than in the previous and following years. The excess concentration of methane amounted to 10% in March 2007, which is higher than the mean range of seasonal variations in the monthly mean concentration of surface methane. A comparison between the data obtained in Moscow and the data obtained at three stations of the NOAA global monitoring network and at three Russian Hydrometeorological Research Center stations shows the high spatial variability of the methane concentration in the atmosphere over northern Eurasia. The complex and multifactor processes that determine the content of methane in the atmospheric surface layer result in noticeable spatial and interannual deviations from the mean seasonal cycle of its concentration, which can manifest themselves on both regional and global scales. It is possible that the resumed increase in the content of methane in the Earth’s atmosphere recorded in 2007 (after its relative stabilization in the early 2000s) at the global monitoring network was also caused, to some extent, by the anomalously warm winter of 2006–2007 in northern Europe and western Siberia.     

Comparative analysis of land,marine, and satellite observations of methane in the lower Atmosphere in the Russian Arctic under conditions of climate change

Land, marine, and satellite observations have been used to study changes in methane concentrations in the lower atmosphere during the warm months of the year (July through October) in Arctic regions having different potentials for methane production. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) data for 2002–2013 are used to explore the interplay between local methane sources in the terrestrial region of the Eurasian Arctic and on the Arctic shelf over the warm period of the year. Linear trends in atmospheric methane concentrations over different Arctic regions are calculated, and a hypothesis of the relation of concentration variations to climatic parameters is tested. The combination of land, marine, and satellite observation is used to develop a conceptual model of the atmospheric methane field in the terrestrial part of the Russian Arctic and on the Arctic shelf. It is shown that the modern methane growth rate in the Arctic does not exceed the Northern Hemisphere mean. It is concluded that the methane emission in the Arctic has little effect on global climate compared to other factors.     

Dynamics of a closed low-parameter compartment model of the global carbon cycle

A closed dynamic compartment model of the global carbon cycle and its modifications with a small number of external parameters, which are constructed on the basis of data on the current and preindustrial carbon fluxes and reserves in reservoirs, are studied. The first possible controlling parameter is the amount of anthropogenic CO₂ emission into the atmosphere. Closure in substance allows a decrease in the dimensionality of dynamic models and yields another variable parameter—the system’s total mass, whose change reflects the level of uncertainty in the knowledge of the amount of reserves. The calibration of unsaturated fluxes in each of the models is based on an algorithm developed earlier for local ecosystems, and the measured differences between the fluxes opposite in sign for several times are used to calculate the coefficients of saturated fluxes. The model’s modifications make it possible to estimate the degree to which the oceanic active layer may be involved in rapid exchange with the atmosphere and to introduce the factor of land use as an additional anthropogenic effect. The time trajectories of carbon reserves in reservoirs are calculated until 2100 under variations in anthropogenic emissions in accordance with the IPCC basic scenarios until 2100 for the basic model and its modifications.     

Interaction of the methane cycle and processes in wetland ecosystems in a climate model of intermediate complexity

The climate model of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM) has been supplemented with a module of soil thermal physics and the methane cycle, which takes into account the response of methane emissions from wetland ecosystems to climate changes. Methane emissions are allowed only from unfrozen top layers of the soil, with an additional constraint in the depth of the simulated layer. All wetland ecosystems are assumed to be water-saturated. The molar amount of the methane oxidized in the atmosphere is added to the simulated atmospheric concentration of CO₂. A control preindustrial experiment and a series of numerical experiments for the 17th–21st centuries were conducted with the model forced by greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols. It is shown that the IAP RAS CM generally reproduces preindustrial and current characteristics of both seasonal thawing/freezing of the soil and the methane cycle. During global warming in the 21st century, the permafrost area is reduced by four million square kilometers. By the end of the 21st century, methane emissions from wetland ecosystems amount to 130–140 Mt CH₄/year for the preindustrial and current period increase to 170–200 MtCH₄/year. In the aggressive anthropogenic forcing scenario A2, the atmospheric methane concentration grows steadily to ≈3900 ppb. In more moderate scenarios A1B and B1, the methane concentration increases until the mid-21st century, reaching ≈2100–2400 ppb, and then decreases. Methane oxidation in air results in a slight additional growth of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. Allowance for the interaction between processes in wetland ecosystems and the methane cycle in the IAP RAS CM leads to an additional atmospheric methane increase of 10–20% depending on the anthropogenic forcing scenario and the time. The causes of this additional increase are the temperature dependence of integral methane production and the longer duration of a warm period in the soil. However, the resulting enhancement of the instantaneous greenhouse radiative forcing of atmospheric methane and an increase in the mean surface air temperature are small (globally < 0.1 W/m² and 0.05 K, respectively).     

Calculation of Long-Term Averages of Surface Air Temperature Based on Insolation Data

The solar radiation coming to the Earth’s ellipsoid is considered without taking into account the atmosphere on the basis of the astronomical ephemerides for the time interval from 3000 BC to 3000 AD. Using the regression equations between the Earth’s insolation and near-surface air temperature, the insolation annual and semiannual climatic norms of near-surface air temperature for the Earth as a whole and the hemispheres are calculated in intervals of 30 years for the period from 2930 BC to 2930 AD with 100 and 900- to 1000-year time steps. The analysis shows that the annual insolation rates of the near-surface air temperature of the Earth and the hemispheres decrease at all intervals. The semiannual insolation rates of the near-surface air temperature increase in winter and decrease in summer. This means that the seasonal difference decreases. The annual and semiannual rates of insolation near-surface air temperature of the Earth increase in the equatorial and decrease in the polar regions; the latitudinal contrast increases. The interlatitudinal gradient is higher in the Southern Hemisphere. It practically does not change in winter and increases in summer, most strongly in the Southern Hemisphere.     

海洋中生源活性气体的来源与迁移转化

海洋生源活性气体主要包括二甲基硫（DMS）、甲烷（CH₄）、氧化亚氮（N₂O）、一氧化碳（CO）、挥发性卤代烃（VHCs）和非甲烷烃（NMHCs）等。它们通过海-气交换进入大气,不仅在全球碳、氮和硫循环中发挥关键作用,而且会直接或间接地对环境和气候变化产生重要影响。海洋释放的活性气体一类属于温室效应气体（CH₄、N₂O、VHCs和CO等）,另一类会在大气中发生化学反应,控制着大气氧化平衡和臭氧浓度（VHCs和NMHCs）。而DMS属于负温室效应气体,其在大气中被快速氧化形成硫酸盐气溶胶,进而对云的形成和辐射强迫产生重要影响。本文综述了国内外海洋生源活性气体的研究现状,着重介绍了DMS、CH₄和N₂O的来源、迁移转化、海-气通量及其影响机制,并指明了该领域存在的科学问题及今后的研究方向。     

Simulation of the impact of thunderstorm activity on atmospheric gas composition

A chemistry-climate model of the lower and middle atmosphere has been used to estimate the sensitivity of the atmospheric gas composition to the rate of thunderstorm production of nitrogen oxides at upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric altitudes. The impact that nitrogen oxides produced by lightning have on the atmospheric gas composition is treated as a subgrid-scale process and included in the model parametrically. The natural uncertainty in the global production rate of nitrogen oxides in lightning flashes was specified within limits from 2 to 20 Tg N/year. Results of the model experiments have shown that, due to the variability of thunderstorm-produced nitrogen oxides, their concentration in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere can vary by a factor of 2 or 3, which, given the influence of nitrogen oxides on ozone and other gases, creates the potential for a strong perturbation of the atmospheric gas composition and thermal regime. Model calculations have shown the strong sensitivity of ozone and the OH hydroxyl to the amount of lightning nitrogen oxides at different atmospheric altitudes. These calculations demonstrate the importance of nitrogen oxides of thunderstorm origin for the balance of atmospheric odd ozone and gases linked to it, such as ozone and hydroxyl radicals. Our results demonstrate that one important task is to raise the accuracy of estimates of the rate of nitrogen oxide production by lightning discharges and to use physical parametrizations that take into account the local lightning effects and feedbacks arising in this case rather than climatological data in models of the gas composition and general circulation of the atmosphere.     

Methane cycle in the INM RAS climate model

The atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with the carbon cycle is coupled to a model of methane evolution, in which methane sources in the soil of wetlands and methane evolution in the atmosphere are calculated. A numerical experiment on the simulation of climate and methane-cycle changes in 1860–2100 has been conducted with the model forced by methane emissions prescribed from scenario A1B. The distribution of the sources of methane from soil agrees with the available estimates and amounts to about 240 Mt/year in the 20th century. The methane flux from soil increases to 340 Mt/year by the end of the 21st century. The model adequately reproduces an increase in the atmospheric methane concentration from 800 ppb in 1860 to about 1800 ppb in 2000, but does not produce the observed stabilization of methane concentration in the early 21st century. By 2060, the methane concentration in the model attains 2700 ppb. The increase in atmospheric methane concentration is due mainly to anthropogenic emissions. A similar numerical experiment with fixed sources of methane from soil at the 1860–1900 level suggests that the maximum methane concentration in the model in this case could amount to 2400 ppb. A temperature increase at the end of the 21st century relative to the 19th century is 3.5° for a simulated change in the methane flux from soil and 0.25° less for a fixed methane flux.     

A method for the calculation of anaerobic oxidation of methane rates across regional scales: an example from the Belt Seas and The Sound (North Sea–Baltic Sea transition)

Estimating the amount of methane in the seafloor globally as well as the flux of methane from sediments toward the ocean–atmosphere system are important considerations in both geological and climate sciences. Nevertheless, global estimates of methane inventories and rates of methane production and consumption through anaerobic oxidation in marine sediments are very poorly constrained. Tools for regionally assessing methane formation and consumption rates would greatly increase our understanding of the spatial heterogeneity of the methane cycle as well as help constrain the global methane budget. In this article, an algorithm for calculating methane consumption rates in the inner shelf is applied to the gas-rich sediments of the Belt Seas and The Sound (North Sea–Baltic Sea transition). It is based on the depth of free gas determined by hydroacoustic techniques and the local methane solubility concentration. Due to the continuous nature of shipboard hydroacoustic measurements, this algorithm captures spatial heterogeneities in methane fluxes better than geochemical analyses of point sources such as observational/sampling stations. The sensibility of the algorithm with respect to the resolution of the free gas depth measurements (2 m vs. 50 cm) is proven of minor importance (a discrepancy of <10%) for a small part of the study area. The algorithm-derived anaerobic methane oxidation rates compare well with previous measured and modeling studies. Finally, regional results reveal that contemporary anaerobic methane oxidation in worldwide inner-shelf sediments may be an order of magnitude lower (ca. 0.24 Tmol year^–1) than previous estimates (4.6 Tmol year^–1). These algorithms ultimately help improve regional estimates of anaerobic oxidation of methane rates.     

Mud volcanoes—a significant source of atmospheric methane

Mud volcanoes are recognized as a significant geological source of atmospheric carbon, particularly as methane gas. This paper considers the total number of mud volcanoes, types and frequency of their activity, quantities of emissions during quiescence and eruption, and composition of venting gases. Mud volcanoes approximate 1,950 prominent individuals worldwide and about 60 to 65 erupt every year. They sporadically or continuously emit to the atmosphere considerable volumes of gas, mainly methane, in average volumes of 3.3 to 3.6×10⁶ m³ per year during quiescent periods, and about 12×10⁶ m³ to more than 350×10⁶ m³ per single eruption. The total annual amount of methane emitted to the atmosphere through mud volcanoes is estimated to be about 5 Tg, containing almost equal quantities of fossil and modern carbon.     

Methane sources,sinks and fluxes in a temperate tidal Lagoon: The Arcachon lagoon (SW France)

The Arcachon lagoon is a 156 km² temperate mesotidal lagoon dominated by tidal flats (66% of the surface area). The methane (CH₄) sources, sinks and fluxes were estimated from water and pore water concentrations, from chamber flux measurements at the sediment–air (low tide), sediment–water and water–air (high tide) interfaces, and from potential oxidation and production rate measurements in sediments. CH₄ concentrations in waters were maximal (500–1000 nmol l⁻¹) in river waters and in tidal creeks at low tide, and minimal in the lagoon at high tide (<50 nmol l⁻¹). The major CH₄ sources are continental waters and the tidal pumping of sediment pore waters at low tide. Methanogenesis occurred in the tidal flat sediments, in which pore water concentrations were relatively high (2.5–8.0 μmol l⁻¹). Nevertheless, the sediment was a minor CH₄ source for the water column and the atmosphere because of a high degree of anaerobic and aerobic CH₄ oxidation in sediments. Atmospheric CH₄ fluxes at high and low tide were low compared to freshwater wetlands. Temperate tidal lagoons appear to be very minor contributor of CH₄ to global atmosphere and to open ocean.     

An experiment demonstrating that marine slumping is a mechanism to transfer methane from seafloor gas-hydrate deposits into the upper ocean and atmosphere

The scientific community is engaged in a lively debate over whether and how venting from the gas-hydrate reservoir and the Earth’s climate is connected. The various scenarios which have been proposed are based on the following assumptions: the inventory of methane gas-hydrate deposits is locally enormous, the stability of marine gas-hydrate deposits can easily be perturbed by temperature and pressure changes, enough methane can be released from these deposits to contribute adequate volumes of this isotopically distinct greenhouse gas to alter the composition of oceanic or atmospheric methane reservoirs, and the mechanisms exist for the transfer of methane from deeper geologic reservoirs to the ocean and/or atmosphere. However, some potential transfer mechanisms have been difficult to evaluate. Here, we consider the possibility of marine slumping as a mechanism to transfer methane carbon from gas hydrates within the seafloor into the ocean and atmosphere. Our analyses and field experiments indicate that large slumps could release volumetrically significant quantities of solid gas hydrates which would float upwards in the water column. Large pieces of gas hydrate would reach the upper layers of the ocean before decomposing, and some of the methane would be directly injected into the atmosphere.     

Heat,volume and chemical fluxes from submarine venting: A synthesis of results from the Rainbow hydrothermal field, 36°N MAR

High-temperature hydrothermal activity occurs in all ocean basins and along ridge crests of all spreading rates. While it has long been recognized that the fluxes associated with such venting are large, precise quantification of their impact on ocean biogeochemistry has proved elusive. Here, we report a comprehensive study of heat, fluid and chemical fluxes from a single submarine hydrothermal field. To achieve this, we have exploited the integrating nature of the non-buoyant plume dispersing above the Rainbow hydrothermal field, a long-lived and tectonically hosted high-temperature vent site on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Our calculations yield heat and volume fluxes for high-temperature fluids exiting the seafloor of ～0.5 GW and 450 L s^?1, together with accompanying chemical fluxes, for Fe, Mn and CH₄ of ～10, ～1 and ～1 mol s^?1, respectively. Accompanying fluxes for 25 additional chemical species that are associated with Fe-rich plume particles have also been calculated as they are transported away from the Rainbow vent site before settling to the seabed. High-temperature venting has been found to recur at least once every ～100 km along all slow-spreading ridges investigated to-date, with half of all known sites on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge occurring as long-lived and tectonically hosted systems. If these patterns persist along all slow- and ultraslow-spreading ridges, high-temperature venting of the kind reported here could account for ～50% of the on-axis hydrothermal heat flux along ～30,000 km of the ～55,000 km global ridge crest.     

The heat balance on the sea surface in the mature phase of 1982/83 El Nino event

Using the air-sea data set of January, 1983 (the mature phase of the 1982/83 El Nino event), the net radiation on the sea surface, the fluxes of the latent and the sensible heat from ocean to the atmosphere and the net heat gain of the sea surface are calculated over the Indian and the Pacific Oceans for the domain of 35°N-35°S and 45°E-75°W. The results indicate that the upward transfer of the latent and the sensible heat fluxes over the winter hemisphere is larger than that over the summer hemisphere. The sensible heat over the tropical mid Pacific in the Southern Hemisphere is transported from the atmosphere to the ocean, though its magnitude is rather small. The latent heat flux gained by the air over the eastern Pacific is less than the mean value of the normal year. The net radiation, on which the cloud amount has considerable impact, is essentially zonally distributed. Moreover, the sea surface temperature (SST) has a very good correlation with the net radiation, the region of warm SST coinci     

台湾地区湖泊甲烷释放量

本研究首次对台湾湖泊的甲烷释放量化评估,以期了解湖泊在台湾地区甲烷总释出量,研究主要利用两种方式进行,一是收集箱实测法,大多运用在交通便利地区,使用甲烷收集箱,定时收集甲烷气,进行浓度分析后,进而估算释放量,另一是利用水汽浓度差估算法,大多运用在交通不便地区,以水体内及接近水体的空气甲烷浓度差,考虑风速及利用理论方程式估算甲烷释放通量,两方法所得到的甲烷释放通量误差在一次方左右。     

中国南海、东海及黄海海域海气二氧化碳通量与生产力的物理生物地球化学模拟研究

Marginal seas play important roles in regulating the global carbon budget, but there are great uncertainties in estimating carbon sources and sinks in the continental margins. A Pacific basin-wide physical-biogeochemical model is used to estimate primary productivity and air-sea CO_2 flux in the South China Sea(SCS), the East China Sea(ECS), and the Yellow Sea(YS). The model is forced with daily air-sea fluxes which are derived from the NCEP2 reanalysis from 1982 to 2005. During the period of time, the modeled monthly-mean air-sea CO_2 fluxes in these three marginal seas altered from an atmospheric carbon sink in winter to a source in summer. On annualmean basis, the SCS acts as a source of carbon to the atmosphere(16 Tg/a, calculated by carbon, released to the atmosphere), and the ECS and the YS are sinks for atmospheric carbon(–6.73 Tg/a and –5.23 Tg/a, respectively,absorbed by the ocean). The model results suggest that the sea surface temperature(SST) controls the spatial and temporal variations of the oceanic pCO_2 in the SCS and ECS, and biological removal of carbon plays a compensating role in modulating the variability of the oceanic pCO_2 and determining its strength in each sea,especially in the ECS and the SCS. However, the biological activity is the dominating factor for controlling the oceanic pCO_2 in the YS. The modeled depth-integrated primary production(IPP) over the euphotic zone shows seasonal variation features with annual-mean values of 293, 297, and 315 mg/(m~2·d) in the SCS, the ECS, and the YS, respectively. The model-integrated annual-mean new production(uptake of nitrate) values, as in carbon units, are 103, 109, and 139 mg/(m~2·d), which yield the f-ratios of 0.35, 0.37, and 0.45 for the SCS, the ECS, and the YS, respectively. Compared to the productivity in the ECS and the YS, the seasonal variation of biological productivity in the SCS is rather weak. The atmospheric pCO_2 increases from 1982 to 2005, which is consistent with the anthropogenic CO_2 input to the atmosphere. The oceanic pCO_2 increases in responses to the atmospheric pCO_2 that drives air-sea CO_2 flux in the model. The modeled increase rate of oceanic pCO_2 is0.91 μatm/a in the YS, 1.04 μatm/a in the ECS, and 1.66 μatm/a in the SCS, respectively.     

Meridional mass and energy fluxes in the vicinity of the Arctic border

The air exchange between the Arctic and midlatitude regions is one of the processes forming the climate of the whole Northern Hemisphere. Analysis of the wind regime in the vicinity of the Arctic border (70° N) at the boundary between the 20th and 21st (1997–2004) centuries showed significant changes in the conditions of a meridional air transport between the Arctic and midlatitude regions as compared to the previous years (1960–1990). In this study, the wind fluxes of mass and heat (internal) and kinetic energies are estimated without consideration for turbulent and convective processes. The importance of spatial, seasonal, and interannual variations in wind velocity and air temperature in the formation of these fluxes is analyzed. It is shown that, during the period 1997–2004, an advective transport of energy from the northern latitudes occurred in the lower 6-km tropospheric layer at 70° N latitude over almost a whole year. Only in spring (April) did the wind fluxes bring heat energy from the south. The total amount of both heat and kinetic energies transported from the Arctic region in this way during a year is comparable to the mean amount of these energies contained in the whole atmosphere over the area bounded by 70° N latitude. The current spatial and temporal distributions of wind velocity and meridional mass and energy fluxes, which are presented in this study, may serve as additional information for interpreting data obtained from different on-site measurements in Arctic regions.     

Biogeochemical ocean-atmosphere transfers in the Arabian Sea

Transfers of some important biogenic atmospheric constituents, carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), molecular nitrogen (N₂), nitrous oxide (N₂O), nitrate , ammonia (NH₃), methylamines (MAs) and dimethylsulphide (DMS), across the air–sea interface are investigated using published data generated mostly during the Arabian Sea Process Study (1992–1997) of the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS). The most important contribution of the region to biogeochemical fluxes is through the production of N₂ and N₂O facilitated by an acute, mid-water deficiency of dissolved oxygen (O₂); emissions of these gases to the atmosphere from the Arabian Sea are globally significant. For the other constituents, especially CO₂, even though the surface concentrations and atmospheric fluxes exhibit extremely large variations both in space and time, arising from the unique physical forcing and associated biogeochemical environment, the overall significance in terms of their global fluxes is not much because of the relatively small area of the Arabian Sea. Distribution and air–sea exchanges of some of these constituents are likely to be greatly influenced by alterations of the subsurface O₂ field forced by human-induced eutrophication and/or modifications to the regional hydrography.