Earthquake risk assessment of buildings accounting for human evacuation

A primary goal of earthquake engineering is to protect society from the possible negative consequences of future earthquakes. Conventionally, this goal has been achieved indirectly by reducing seismic damage of the built environment through better building codes, or more comprehensibly, by minimizing seismic risk. However, the effect that building damage has on occupants is not explicitly taken into account while designing infrastructure. Consequently, this paper introduces a conceptual framework and numerical algorithm to assess earthquake risk on building occupants during seismic events, considering the evacuation process of the structure. The framework combines probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, inelastic structural response analysis and damage assessment, and couples these results with the response of evacuating agents. The results are cast as probability distributions of variables that measure the overall performance of the system (e.g., evacuation times, number of injured people, and repair costs) for specific time windows. As a testbed, the framework was applied to the response of a reinforced concrete frame building that exemplifies the use of all steps of the methodology. The results suggest that this seismic risk evaluation framework of structural systems that combine the response of a physical model with human agents can be extended to a wide variety of other situations, including the assessment of mitigation actions in communities and people to improve their earthquake resilience. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

城市避震救灾最优体系模型仿真

传统GIS空间分析模型进行城市避震救灾疏散方案规划时,未考虑疏散路径的当量长度,获取的避震救灾模型疏散效率较低。采用通行难度系数、次生灾害干扰系数、桥梁阻碍系数获取避震救灾疏散路径当量长度;通过目标函数获取避震救灾疏散路径当量长度的最小值,同时考虑避难场所的容纳量要求、清空避难场所固有人员、疏散距离小于避难场所的服务半径3个约束条件,设计新的城市避震救灾疏散最优模型。实验结果表明,新的城市避震救灾疏散最优模型能够给出精确的疏散路径与方案,高效率地完成城市避震救灾疏散任务。     

Earthquake response analysis of the Hualien soil–structure interaction system based on updated soil properties using forced vibration test data

This paper presents results of the earthquake response analysis on a large‐scale seismic test (LSST) structure which was built at Hualien in Taiwan for an international cooperative research project. The analysis is carried out using a computer program which has been developed based on axisymmetric finite element method incorporating dynamic infinite elements for far‐field soil region and a substructured wave input technique. The non‐linear behaviour of the soil medium is taken into account using an iterative equivalent linearization procedure. Two sets of the soil and structural properties, namely the unified and the FVT‐correlated models, are utilized as the initial linear values. The unified model was provided by a group of experts in charge of the geotechnical experiments, and the correlated model was obtained through a system identification procedure using the forced vibration test (FVT) results by the present authors. Three components of ground accelerations are artificially generated through an averaging process of the Fourier amplitude spectra of the ground accelerations measured near the test structure, and they are used as the control input motions for the earthquake analysis. It has been found that the earthquake responses predicted using the generated control motions and with the FVT‐correlated model as the initial linear properties in the equivalent linearization procedure compare very well with the observed responses. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Urban scenarios modifications due to the earthquake: ruins formation criteria and interactions with pedestrians’ evacuation

One of the most influencing elements in inhabitants’ earthquake safety definition is represented by the interactions between people and post-event environment in urban scenarios. Understanding and simulating rules for pedestrians’ motion in earthquake evacuation could be useful to inquire the risk assessment introducing the “human” factor influence: integrated “risk maps” could be realized by combining results of similar analyses with the traditional site hazard, buildings vulnerability and exposition indices. This work proposes an innovative approach based on the analysis of these interactions. Two experimentally-based activities are required: an analysis of human behaviors towards the post-earthquake environment; a relation for defining environmental modifications. Results firstly show a summary of man-environment interactions in earthquake evacuations. A possible criterion for path choice in evacuation is also numerically defined. A theoretical agent-based model is developed on these bases and summarizes phases, motion rules and man-environment interactions in earthquake pedestrians’ evacuation in urban scenarios. Secondly, quick criteria for scenario modifications involving ruins formation are proposed and evaluated: for each building, the percentages of internal and external ruins area is a function of its vulnerability and the expected earthquake Richter magnitude. Moreover, the external ruins formation criterion is validated by comparing predicted and effective values of ruins area depth in real cases. The model could be proposed as a tool for evaluating probable pedestrians’ choices in post-event scenarios, in order to reduce the interferences between the built environment and the evacuation process through interventions on buildings, urban fabric and strategies for emergency management.     

Collapse of a nonductile concrete frame: Shaking table tests

Post‐earthquake reconnaissance has reported the vulnerability of older reinforced concrete (RC) columns lacking details for ductile response. Research was undertaken to investigate the full‐range structural hysteretic behavior of older RC columns. A two‐dimensional specimen frame, composed of nonductile and ductile columns to allow for load redistribution, was subjected to a unidirectional base motion on a shaking table until global collapse was observed. The test demonstrates two types of column failure, including flexure‐shear and pure flexural failure. Test data are compared with various simplified assessment models commonly used by practicing engineers and researchers to identify older buildings that are at high risk of structural collapse during severe earthquake events. Comparison suggests that ASCE/SEI 41‐06 produces very conservative estimates on load–deformation relations of flexure‐shear columns, while the recently proposed ASCE/SEI 41‐06 update imposes significant modifications on the predictive curve, so that improved accuracy has been achieved. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

校园人群应急疏散行为及其影响因素研究

校园作为城市高密度地区的典型区域,建筑密度高、道路错综曲折、灾后疏散难度大。以南京中心城区某高校为实证研究案例,展开问卷调查;采用皮尔逊卡方检验法,对校园人群安全意识及疏散行为和性别、年龄、受教育程度及参加疏散演练次数等人员特性信息进行交叉分析,得到存在相关性的变量组;基于Logistic回归模型,建立了人群特征、安全意识评价指标对校园人群疏散行为及心理影响的评价模型,识别疏散行为影响因素,以及各因素的影响程度大小。结果表明:年龄、性别以及参加过疏散演练的次数是影响人群安全意识及疏散行为的显著相关因素,学历是相关因素;地震灾害下受访人群对避难场所的选择偏好为:场地型避难场所>建筑型避难场所>地下空间;参加疏散演练的次数,安全意识、风险认知对灾害发生时的人群疏散行为有显著影响。     

Spatiotemporal seismic hazard and risk assessment of M9.0 megathrust earthquake sequences of wood‐frame houses in Victoria,British Columbia,Canada

Megathrust earthquake sequences, comprising mainshocks and triggered aftershocks along the subduction interface and in the overriding crust, can impact multiple buildings and infrastructure in a city. The time between the mainshocks and aftershocks usually is too short to retrofit the structures; therefore, moderate‐size aftershocks can cause additional damage. To have a better understanding of the impact of aftershocks on city‐wide seismic risk assessment, a new simulation framework of spatiotemporal seismic hazard and risk assessment of future M9.0 sequences in the Cascadia subduction zone is developed. The simulation framework consists of an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, ground‐motion model, and state‐dependent seismic fragility model. The spatiotemporal ETAS model is modified to characterise aftershocks of large and anisotropic M9.0 mainshock ruptures. To account for damage accumulation of wood‐frame houses due to aftershocks in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, state‐dependent fragility curves are implemented. The new simulation framework can be used for quasi‐real‐time aftershock hazard and risk assessments and city‐wide post‐event risk management.     

高强度地震下建筑施工场点危险性建模分析

在高强度地震环境下,建筑施工场点易发生危险,传统方法运用AHP算法对建筑施工场点的危险性进行分析,但未考虑抗震约束,存在分析效果差的弊端。因此,提出一种高强度地震下建筑施工场点危险性建模分析方法。首先采用TOPSIS方法得到地震风险评估指标,构建风险评估指标的物元分析模型,基于AHP-熵权法的组合赋权获取地震风险评估指标的综合权重。然后通过贝叶斯网络来推导高强度地震下建筑施工场点危险性参数,运用地震等级的划分标准和推算方法,依据建筑施工场点危险性评估准则和接受原则APLARP,利用物元分析模型中不同危险节点的致因关系和综合权重构建施工场点风险评估模型,完成对高强度地震下建筑施工场点危险性的建模分析。实验结果表明,所设计模型可准确分析高强度地震下建筑施工场点的危险性,能够确保整体施工的安全性,具有重要的应用价值。     

Assessing uncertainty in estimation of seismic response for PBEE

State‐of‐the‐art approaches to probabilistic assessment of seismic structural reliability are based on simulation of structural behavior via nonlinear dynamic analysis of computer models. Simulations are carried out considering samples of ground motions supposedly drawn from specific populations of signals virtually recorded at the site of interest. This serves to produce samples of structural response to evaluate the failure rate, which in turn allows to compute the failure risk (probability) in a time interval of interest. This procedure alone implies that uncertainty of estimation affects the probabilistic results. The latter is seldom quantified in risk analyses, although it may be relevant. This short paper discusses some basic issues and some simple statistical tools, which can aid the analyst towards the assessment of the impact of sample variability on fragility functions and the resulting seismic structural risk. On the statistical inference side, the addressed strategies are based on consolidated results such as the well‐known delta method and on some resampling plans belonging to the bootstrap family. On the structural side, they rely on assumptions and methods typical in performance‐based earthquake engineering applications. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A fuzzy–random analysis model for seismic performance of framed structures incorporating structural and non‐structural damage

Past earthquake experiences indicate that most buildings designed in accordance with modern seismic design codes could survive moderate‐to‐strong earthquakes; however, the financial loss due to repairing cost and the subsequent business interruption can be unacceptable. Designing building structures to meet desired performance targets has become a clear direction in future seismic design practice. As a matter of fact, the performance of buildings is affected by structural as well as non‐structural components, and involves numerous uncertainties. Therefore, appropriate probabilistic approach taking into account structural and non‐structural damages is required. This paper presents a fuzzy–random model for the performance reliability analysis of RC framed structures considering both structural and non‐structural damages. The limit state for each performance level is defined as an interval of inter‐storey drift ratios concerning, respectively, the non‐structural and structural damage with a membership function, while the relative importance of the two aspects is reflected through the use of an appropriate cost function. To illustrate the methodology, herein the non‐structural damage is represented by infill masonry walls. The probabilistic drift limits for RC components and masonry walls from the associated studies are employed to facilitate the demonstration of the proposed model in an example case study. The results are compared with those obtained using classical reliability model based on single‐threshold performance definition. The proposed model provides a good basis for incorporating different aspects into the performance assessment of a building system. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A nonlinear impact model for simulating the use of rubber shock absorbers for mitigating the effects of structural pounding during earthquakes

During strong earthquakes, structural poundings may occur between adjacent buildings because of the limited separation distance and the deformations of their stories. A potential mitigation measure for this problem is the incorporation of layers of soft material, such as rubber, which can act as collision bumpers, in order to prevent the sudden impact pulses. In an effort to investigate the effectiveness of such an impact mitigation measure, relevant numerical simulations and parametric studies can be performed. However, none of the known impact models, which are available in the literature, is able to represent the usage of rubber bumpers with sufficient accuracy. The current study presents a simple but efficient methodology that can be used to simulate the incorporation of rubber layers between neighboring structures with relatively narrow seismic gaps. Such methodology will enable us to numerically investigate the effectiveness of using rubber bumpers to mitigate potential earthquake‐induced pounding. In particular, a new nonlinear inelastic force‐based impact model, able to appropriately describe the behavior of rubber under impact loading, taking also into account the limited thickness of the bumper, is introduced. Finally, a numerical example of simulating earthquake‐induced pounding between two multistory buildings with the consideration of rubber bumpers at impact locations is presented. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A frequency‐dependent and intensity‐dependent macroelement for reduced order seismic analysis of soil‐structure interacting systems

The computational demand of the soil‐structure interaction analysis for the design and assessment of structures, as well as for the evaluation of their life‐cycle cost and risk exposure, has led the civil engineering community to the development of a variety of methods toward the model order reduction of the coupled soil‐structure dynamic system in earthquake regions. Different approaches have been proposed in the past as computationally efficient alternatives to the conventional finite element model simulation of the complete soil‐structure domain, such as the nonlinear lumped spring, the macroelement method, and the substructure partition method. Yet no approach was capable of capturing simultaneously the frequency‐dependent dynamic properties along with the nonlinear behavior of the condensed segment of the overall soil‐structure system under strong earthquake ground motion, thus generating an imbalance between the modeling refinement achieved for the soil and the structure. To this end, a dual frequency‐dependent and intensity‐dependent expansion of the lumped parameter modeling method is proposed in the current paper, materialized through a multiobjective algorithm, capable of closely approximating the behavior of the nonlinear dynamic system of the condensed segment. This is essentially the extension of an established methodology, also developed by the authors, in the inelastic domain. The efficiency of the proposed methodology is validated for the case of a bridge foundation system, wherein the seismic response is comparatively assessed for both the proposed method and the detailed finite element model. The above expansion is deemed a computationally efficient and reliable method for simultaneously considering the frequency and amplitude dependence of soil‐foundation systems in the framework of nonlinear seismic analysis of soil‐structure interaction systems.     

Vibration‐based damage assessment of steel structure using global and local response measurements

Damage assessment of a structure involves acquiring and identifying dynamic characteristics of the structure and using these characteristics to evaluate behavior and performance. In this study, an unsymmetrical three‐story steel structure (fabricated with one weak column in the first floor) was tested on shaking table and subjected to a series of earthquake excitations with increasing level of excitation back to back. Besides, white noise excitation was also applied in between the earthquake excitation to serve as the reference state. Both the traditional sensing system (accelerometer and linear variable differential transformer) and the local optical tracker system were implemented in the structure to collect the vibration‐based responses. For operational modal analysis, structural response from white noise excitation will be used in this study. First, the traditional system identification using global response data is used (multivariate autoregressive (AR)‐model) to extract system natural frequencies and mode shapes from all different set of white noise responses after earthquake excitation. The migration of AR‐coefficient ellipse error from each sensor response was used to identify the damage location. Second, blind source separation technique was used to identify the modal contribution of the structure from each test, which provide information to detect the damage severity. Finally, from the local optical tracker array data, the principal component analysis was applied to quantify the earthquake‐induce local stress of the structural member. Combine the result from damage detection using global measurement and the identified local element stress, one can locate and quantify the damage. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Preliminary analysis of a soft‐storey mechanism after the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake

Observation of damage caused by the recent Abruzzo earthquake on April 6th 2009 showed how local interaction between infills and RC structures can lead to soft‐storey mechanisms and brittle collapses. Results of the present case study are based on observed damage caused by the earthquake in the zone of Pettino. Analytical model based on simulated design procedure was built up and time history analyses were employed to verify the causes of the structural collapse, as highlighted by observed damage. This failure mechanism was investigated taking into consideration all components of the ground motion. Nonlinear behavior of brick masonry infills was taken into account and two parametric hypotheses for infill mechanical properties were considered, given the uncertainties that typically characterize these nonstructural elements. Nonlinear modeling of infills was made by a three‐strut macro‐model aimed at considering both local and global interaction between RC frame and infills. Seismic input was characterized by the real signal registered during the mainshock near the case‐study structure. Different shear capacity models were considered in the assessment. Analytical results seem to confirm with good approximation the likely collapse scenario that damage observation highlighted; the lack of proper detailing in the columns made the local interaction between infills and RC columns and the strong vertical component of the ground motion to be the main causes of the brittle failure. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic retrofit of MRF buildings using decentralized semi‐active control for multi‐target performances

Numerous structures have been designed and built without taking earthquake ground motions or outdated seismic design codes into account. In order to improve the seismic performance of existing structures, many retrofit approaches based on performance‐based design have been developed. However, some of these approaches are inapplicable due to structural limitations or because they were developed with the assumption of single‐degree‐of‐freedom, which does not take higher modes into account. To overcome the limitations of these traditional methods, a multi‐performance‐based control design (MPBCD) methodology has been proposed by integrating a decentralized semi‐active control algorithm, magnetorheological dampers, and an advanced multi‐objective optimization method to provide various sets of retrofit control designs to satisfy multiple target performances under multiple seismic intensities without changing structural cross‐section sizes or material properties. This MPBCD method provides engineers with numerous sets of control designs (i.e., control device layouts with control design parameters) to help them select proper control designs to retrofit existing building structures and improve seismic performance. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of fragility functions for geotechnical constructions: Application to cantilever retaining walls

Fragility curves constitute an emerging tool for the seismic risk assessment of all constructions at risk. They describe the probability of a structure being damaged beyond a specific damage state for various levels of ground shaking. They are usually represented as two-parameter (median and log-standard deviation) cumulative lognormal distributions. In this paper a numerical approach is proposed for the construction of fragility curves for geotechnical constructions. The methodology is applied to cantilever bridge abutments on surface foundation often used in road and railway networks. The response of the abutment to increasing levels of seismic intensity is evaluated using a 2D nonlinear FE model, with an elasto-plastic criterion to simulate the soil behavior. A calibration procedure is followed in order to account for the dependency of both the stiffness and the damping on the soil strain level. The effect of soil conditions and ground motion characteristics on the global soil and structural response is taken into account considering different typical soil profiles and seismic input motions. The objective is to assess the vulnerability of the road network as regards the performance of the bridge abutments; therefore, the level of damage, is described in terms of the range of settlement that is observed on the backfill. The effect of backfill material to the overall response of the abutment wall is also examined. The fragility curves are estimated based on the evolution of damage with increasing earthquake intensity. The proposed approach allows the evaluation of new fragility curves considering the distinctive features of the structure geometry, the input motion and the soil properties as well as the associated uncertainties. The proposed fragility curves are verified based on observed damage during the 2007 Niigata-Chuetsu Oki earthquake.     

Expected loss‐based alarm threshold set for earthquake early warning systems

Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) seem to have potential as tools for real‐time seismic risk management and mitigation. In fact, although the evacuation of buildings requires warning time not available in many urbanized areas threatened by seismic hazard, they may still be used for the real‐time protection of critical facilities using automatic systems in order to reduce the losses subsequent to a catastrophic event. This is possible due to the real‐time seismology, which consists of methods and procedures for the rapid estimation of earthquake features, as magnitude and location, based on measurements made on the first seconds of the P‐waves. An earthquake engineering application of earthquake early warning (EEW) may be intended as a system able to issue the alarm, if some recorded parameter exceeds a given threshold, to activate risk mitigation actions before the quake strikes at a site of interest. Feasibility analysis and design of such EEWS require the assessment of the expected loss reduction due to the security action and set of the alarm threshold. In this paper a procedure to carry out these tasks in the performance‐based earthquake engineering probabilistic framework is proposed. A merely illustrative example refers to a simple structure assumed to be a classroom. Structural damage and non‐structural collapses are considered; the security action is to shelter occupants below the desks. The cost due to a false alarm is assumed to be related to the interruption of didactic activities. Results show how the comparison of the expected losses, for the alarm‐issuance and non‐issuance cases, allows setting the alarm threshold on a quantitative and consistent basis, and how it may be a tool for the design of engineering applications of EEW. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Empirical‐based out‐of‐plane URM infill wall model accounting for the interaction with in‐plane demand

The role of masonry infills in the seismic behavior of reinforced concrete buildings has been widely studied in terms of their strength and stiffness contribution in the in‐plane (IP) direction, while fewer studies have been carried out on their response and modeling in the out‐of‐plane (OOP) direction. In this paper, the state of the art in code and literature provisions regarding infills' OOP capacity and seismic demand is presented, together with a review of the experimental tests that have been carried out to investigate infills' OOP behavior and the effects of IP‐OOP interaction. This review aims to collect an experimental database that is used to evaluate the effectiveness of literature and code provisions and to propose a semiempirical approach both for predicting infills' OOP strength, stiffness, and displacement capacity and for modeling the effects of IP displacement demand on OOP behavior and vice versa. Then, the state of the art on modeling of infills' OOP behavior and IP‐OOP interaction is presented together with a new macro model based on the proposed formulations and conceived to represent the IP and OOP behavior by taking into account the mutual interaction effects. Finally, the proposed model is used for an example application on two case‐study buildings, showing the effects of taking into account or neglecting the IP‐OOP interaction phenomena.     

Simplified macro‐model for infill masonry walls considering the out‐of‐plane behaviour

One of the main challenges in earthquake risk mitigation is the assessment of existing buildings not designed according to modern codes and the development of effective techniques to strengthen these structures. Particular attention should be given to RC frame structures with masonry infill panels, as demonstrated by their poor performance in recent earthquakes in Europe. Understanding the seismic behaviour of masonry‐infilled RC frames presents one of the most difficult problems in structural engineering. Analytical tools to evaluate infill–frame interaction and the failure mechanisms need to be further studied. This research intends to develop a simplified macro‐model that takes into account the out‐of‐plane behaviour of the infill panels and the corresponding in‐plane and out‐of‐plane interaction when subjected to seismic loadings. Finally, a vulnerability assessment of an RC building will be performed in order to evaluate the influence of the out‐of‐plane consideration in the building response. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic behavior of asymmetric RC wall buildings: principles and new deformation‐based design method

The seismic design of multi‐story buildings asymmetric in plan yet regular in elevation and stiffened with ductile RC structural walls is addressed. A realistic modeling of the non‐linear ductile behavior of the RC walls is considered in combination with the characteristics of the dynamic torsional response of asymmetric buildings. Design criteria such as the determination of the system ductility, taking into account the location and ductility demand of the RC walls, the story‐drift demand at the softer (most displaced) edge of the building under the design earthquake, the allowable ductility (ultimate limit state) and the allowable story‐drift (performance goals) are discussed. The definition of an eccentricity of the earthquake‐equivalent lateral force is proposed and used to determine the effective displacement profile of the building yet not the strength distribution under the design earthquake. Furthermore, an appropriate procedure is proposed to calculate the fundamental frequency and the earthquake‐equivalent lateral force. A new deformation‐based seismic design method taking into account the characteristics of the dynamic torsional response, the ductility of the RC walls, the system ductility and the story‐drift at the softer (most displaced) edge of the building is presented and illustrated with an example of seismic design of a multi‐story asymmetric RC wall building. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.