基于ECHAM5模式的21世纪冬季北大西洋涛动与北半球风暴轴的特征分析

基于德国马普所大气模式ECHAM5的输出结果,对RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5三种情景下21世纪冬季北大西洋涛动(NAO)与冬季北半球风暴轴的变化特征进行探究。结果显示,3种情景下,NAO指数(NAOI)均表现出9-14年的周期,冬季两大洋风暴轴强度均呈增长趋势,2大风暴轴位置震荡总呈东北(西南)向。辐射较强的情景,冬季北太平洋风暴轴的平均位置越偏向亚欧大陆,冬季北大西洋风暴轴的平均面积指数越大且平均位置越偏西。合成分析结果显示,3种情景下,从NAO强年、平均态依次到弱年,2大洋风暴轴的响应不尽相同:RCP2.6情景中,北太平洋风暴轴明显远离欧亚大陆,强度和面积指数递减,而北大西洋风暴轴面积指数却显著递增;RCP4.5情景中,北半球两大洋上风暴轴面积均逐渐增大,北大西洋风暴轴逐渐靠近美洲大陆,强度也加强;RCP8.5中,冬季北太平洋风暴轴面积指数增大,位置远离亚欧大陆,强度增强,北大西洋风暴轴强度显著递增。     

冬季赤道中东太平洋海温异常对北半球两大洋风暴轴协同变化的可能影响

利用NCEP/NCAR(National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research)和NOAA(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)提供的再分析资料和CPC(National Climate Prediction Center)提供的Nino3.4指数,研究了与赤道中东太平洋海温异常相对应的ENSO(El Nio-Southern Oscillation)不同位相对同期北半球海气耦合关系及两大洋风暴轴协同关系的影响,具体结论如下:1)赤道中东太平洋海温异常与冬季北半球两大洋风暴轴协同变化关系密切,具体表现为海温正异常时对应北太平洋风暴轴和北大西洋风暴轴同时增强,且大西洋风暴轴整体和太平洋风暴轴东部位置南压,海温负异常时则相反。2)海温正异常(El Nio)年时,对流层中层极涡向北太平洋地区伸展,西北太平洋副热带高压增强西移,东亚大槽减弱,高度场异常对应WP(Western Pacific pattern)、EA(Eastern Atlantic pattern)型遥相关的负位相和PNA(Pacific-North American pattern)型遥相关正位相,对流层低层加拿大高压增强,阿留申低压强度增强并向东南方向移动,东亚急流增强东伸,北美急流强度增强,欧亚大陆50°N附近西风增强,经向环流减弱,北半球的斜压异常分布有利于北太平洋东部风暴轴南侧以及中西部风暴轴的有效位能向扰动动能转换,使得风暴轴增强东部南压,北大西洋风暴轴南部斜压增强,使得风暴轴整体偏南,中、西部强度增强。海温负异常(La Nia)年时,海温和环流异常在两大洋基本与El Nio年相反,对应两大洋风暴轴强度同时减弱,同时北大西洋风暴轴整体和北太平洋风暴轴东部北抬。3)海温正异常(El Nio)年时,北美大陆为北暖南冷的异常分布,60°N以南的东亚地区除我国西南外基本为温度异常升高。海温负异常(La Nia)年时,由于高度场和风场异常在欧亚大陆和北美大陆上的异常分布与El Nio年时并不是完全相反,使得温度场异常主要表现在北美南部和东亚北部异常升高。     

西风急流对一次华南早春极端暴雨影响的分析

利用MICAPS站点降水数据和NCEP再分析资料对2014年3月30-31日发生在广东的一次极端降水过程进行了分析。结果表明,副热带北大西洋东部上空200hPa扰动在南支西风急流中的传播对本次极端降水的触发具有重要影响。降水发生前,副热带北大西洋东部高空不稳定槽发展,扰动信号进入南支西风急流并沿其向下游传播。阿拉伯海上空暖平流使印度上空的脊得到加强,脊前冷平流导致脊前位于华南上空的槽加深,从而导致降水区上空急流最大风速中心断裂,形成有利于极端降水发生的高层大气环流形势——急流入口区的右侧,涡度平流随高度增加和强的辐散中心引发强烈的上升运动,配合低层气旋式切变与充分的水汽供应,导致了此次极端降水的发生。     

冬季北极涛动异常对北太平洋风暴轴的可能影响

基于美国国家海洋和大气局气候预测中心公报的北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation,AO)指数逐月数据以及美国国家环境预报中心和大气研究中心的1986—2017年逐日再分析资料等,运用回归和合成分析等方法,分析了北极涛动与北太平洋地区风暴轴的时间演变特征、两者之间的联系及AO异常影响风暴轴的可能机制。结果表明:1)风暴轴经度指数与纬度指数有显著正相关性,两者具有同步变化的特征,而这两者与风暴轴强度指数都呈负相关,但不显著。AO指数与北太平洋风暴轴强度呈显著正相关,且AO指数与风暴轴经度、纬度指数也呈正相关,但并不显著。2)在北极涛动强正(负)位相年份,风暴轴区域天气尺度滤波方差强(弱)、500 h Pa高度场上东亚大槽减弱(加深)、急流偏北偏强(偏南偏弱)、扰动动能增强(减弱)、斜压性增强(减弱)。可能影响机制是,异常变化的AO影响东亚大槽,改变急流强度,使斜压性发生变化,进而对风暴轴产生影响。     

北太平洋环流与风应力场关系的初步探讨

关于东海黑潮变异的原因,管秉贤曾提出东海黑潮的变化是受北太平洋副热带上空风应力涡度的影响,即东北信风边界处的风应力场几乎控制了东海黑潮的变异.那未,如何解释这种海-气之间的遥相关呢? 本文试图通过分析大洋上空风应力场的变异引起大洋水位的升降,大洋海平面的变化导致大洋环流(北赤道流)强度的变化,进而导致近海环流(东海黑潮)强弱的变化这一海气相互作用系统,对上面提到的海-气之间的这种远距离相关关系作进一步的物理解释.     

一次猛烈低压大风的诊断分析

对舟山海域一次猛烈的低压大风过程进行了诊断分析。结果表明:地面气旋的强烈发展是由于其与高空疏散槽前的正涡度平流中心、辐散中心和暖平流中心在垂直方向紧密耦合的结果,高空急流的活动和加强进一步促进了地面气旋的发展,地面气旋发生发展在青藏高原上空西北急流出口区的左侧和日本海上空西南急流入口区的右侧。地面气旋的发展和冷空气共同作用造成的强气压梯度是引起海上强风的主要原因;高空西南急流轴附近激发出的次级环流下沉支中往南的非地转风,加大了地面风速;对流层中下层垂直环流由上升运动转为一致的下沉运动,引起动量下传进一步加大了地面风速。     

北大西洋秋季“三极子”海温结构对冬季大气环流场的影响

利用NCEP再分析资料、Hadley中心的海表面温度(SST)资料等,从北大西洋秋季海表面温度异常(SSTA)变化入手,对其影响后期冬季大气环流场的机制进行了分析。研究结果如下:(1)北大西洋SST异常与大气环流异常之间存在着相互作用;(2)秋季北大西洋SSTA具有较好的持续性,"正负正"海温异常空间分布导致12月巴伦支海上空500hPa位势高度异常偏高;(3)异常环流形势对应的海表面风异常场(SSWA)通过阶段性风-蒸发-SST异常反馈机制(WES机制)利于海温异常分布的持续及对上空异常大气环流的反馈;(4)三极子海温结构中负异常海温自10月份开始有自西向东的移动,风作用下蒸发加大,伴随上升运动自欧洲西部爱尔兰群岛出现自西向东移动的降水正异常区,潜热释放有利于冬季巴伦支海上空的异常高压脊发展。研究表明,北大西洋秋季SSTA通过阶段性海气相互作用机制影响海洋温度分布和大气环流异常,对后期冬季中国东北部的气候变化产生影响。     

冬季北太平洋的温带气旋活动及其与前期秋季北极海冰的关系

基于欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的ERA_interim全球再分析数据集,利用客观算法识别和追踪温带气旋,分析了1979—2014年冬季(12月—次年2月)北太平洋(120°E~120°W,20°N~80°N)的温带气旋活动特征及其变化,探讨了冬季风暴路径与秋季北极海冰异常的关系。北太平洋温带气旋活动的气候态显示为自日本以东洋面至阿拉斯加湾北部的风暴路径。对30°N以北气旋活动频率异常的EOF分析显示其第一模态为太平洋气旋活动的南北向偶极子结构,表示风暴路径南北摆动的变化特征,且有向北偏移的趋势。第二模态的空间分布表现为40°N~60°N之间的大陆沿岸和太平洋洋面上呈相反的分布形势。时间系数的回归分析显示,冬季太平洋风暴路径的南北摆动与秋季(9—11月)东西伯利亚海-波弗特海海冰的异常显著相关。该海区秋季海冰减少导致冬季阿留申低压区呈高压异常,西风急流北移,45°N~75°N之间的大气斜压性增强而45°N以南大气斜压性减弱,从而使风暴路径向45°N以北偏移。     

北极超强气旋活动及其大气环流特征

北极极端气旋过程能够反映北极气候变化特征并对北极水文气象要素的调节具有重要影响,其活动及大气环流形势特征值得关注。利用美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)与美国国家大气研究中心(National Center for Atmospheric Research,NCAR)提供的逐日再分析资料定义北极超强气旋(Arctic Super Cyclone, ASC)过程,结合美国国家冰雪数据中心(National Snow and Ice Data Center, NSIDC)基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料追踪识别的北半球气旋及特征资料,分析了ASC的活动特征及其大气环流特征。结果表明:判别ASC的北极最低气压5%阈值具有显著的冬季低夏季高的单峰型季节变化特征,冬季ASC的强度远强于夏季;ASC多从大西洋扇区经北欧海?巴伦支海?喀拉海输入到极区,也存在少部分极区原生或太平洋扇区输入;ASC多生成于两大洋急流轴或急流出口区北侧,极少数生成于大陆或中低纬度,且绝大多数在极区消亡难以回到中纬度。极区原生ASC频数占总数约1/3,整体没有显著增减趋势,但长生命史ASC频数以0.49次/(10 a)的趋势增多,表明其持续时间增长。ASC频数与北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation, AO)在冬季相关性很好,其大气环流形势回归场中极区海平面出现低压低温异常,高空极涡加深且两大洋急流偏北,中纬度急流主轴偏弱;ASC的生成发展不仅有利于AO向正位相转变,同时AO正位相下也有利于ASC活动的增强,ASC活动是AO位相变化的潜在指标。     

冬季鄂霍次克海海冰对北太平洋风暴轴年际变化的影响

利用北极海冰密集度资料和NCEP＼NCAR再分析资料，运用统计方法讨论了冬季鄂霍次克海及其邻近海区海冰异常与同期北太平洋风暴轴的联系。结果发现，冬季鄂霍次克海西南部海区海冰面积异常与北太平洋海温异常共同作用对北太平洋风暴轴在西北一东南方向的伸缩及强度的年际变化有重要影响，而在海温异常的共同作用下，鄂霍次克海东北部及舍列霍夫海海区海冰面积异常则主要影响风暴轴的南北位移和强弱。     

Geotechnical characteristics of deep-sea sediments from the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans

Geotechnical properties from a series of deep-sea sites in the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans are examined to evaluate overall trends and to compare with similar fine-grained soils found on land. The study areas encompass a range of sedimentary environments dominated by combinations of turbidite and pelagic deposits. Carbonate content in excess of 20% is seen to result in a decrease in liquid limit and compressibility. Vertical profiles of geotechnical properties in the North Pacific show broader changes in down-core geotechnical properties compared to the North Atlantic and reflect the effects of long-term climatic changes and seafloor spreading. Sediments in the North Atlantic indicate significant differences depending on location, which is attributed to variability in turbidite deposition, water depth, distance from sediment sources, and the effects of bottom currents. Compared to equivalent fine-grained soils on land, deep-sea sediments are generally softer, more compressible and have higher friction angles at comparable Atterberg limits. Deeper and older sediments in the North Pacific are characterized by unusually large plastic limits, which are attributed to the presence of volcanic fractions. Empirical relationships for compression index and friction angle are discussed for sediments from both oceans.     

Mean temperature-salinity,salinity-depth and temperature-depth curves for the North Atlantic and the North Pacific

All available hydrographic data are used to compute average temperature-salinity, salinity-depth and temperature-depth curves for 5° squares in the North Atlantic and North Pacific (10°S to 60°N). Both objective and subjective methods are used to filter out obviously erroneous data. Summary maps of all 5° square mean curves, and their corresponding standard deviations, are used to select regions of spatial homogeneity over which the curves are averaged. Scatter diagrams of each parameter pair are used to identify 5° squares containing a variety of water masses.The area average curves, and their standard deviations, are presented individually along with tables of the parameter values. These curves, in conjunction with the 5° square summary maps, provide a comprehensive picture of the distributions of these properties in the upper and mid-depth portions of these oceans. This well resolved picture of the water mass structure both confirms and adds new insights into the traditional concepts of these property distributions.The application of the mean temperature-salinity and salinity-depth curves to the inference of salinity from observed temperature profiles, is examined. Shallow (0/500 db) dynamic heights, calculated from observations of temperature and salinity (true dynamic height), are compared with dynamic heights computed from observed temperature profiles and salinities inferred from the mean property curves. Maps of the RMS differences between true and inferred dynamic heights (by 5° square) reveal those areas where salinities, inferred from either temperature-salinity or salinity-depth curves, yield reliable dynamic heights.     

Chlorofluorocarbons in the western North Pacific in 1993 and formation of North Pacific intermediate water

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11 and CFC-12) in the intermediate water having between 26.4 and 27.2 were determined at 75 stations in the western North Pacific north of 20°N and west of 175.5°E in 1993. The intermediate water of 26.4–26.6 was almost saturated with respect to the present atmospheric CFC-11 in the zone between 35 and 45°N around the subarctic front. Furthermore, the ratios of CFC-11/CFC-12 of the water were also of those formed after 1975. These suggest that the upper intermediate water (26.4–26.6) was recently formed by cooling and sinking of the surface water not by mixing with old waters. The water below the isopycnal surface of 26.8 contained less CFCs and the area containing higher CFCs around the subarctic front was greatly reduced. However, the CFC age of the lower intermediate water (26.8–27.2) in the zone around the subarctic front was not old, suggesting that the water was formed by diapycnal mixing of the water ventilated with the atmosphere with old waters not containing appreciable CFCs, probably the Pacific Deep Water. The southward spreading rate decreased with depth and it was one sixth of its eastward spreading rate of the North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW).     

北太平洋北部的风能输入门户

风不仅驱动了上层海洋的环流,也是深层海洋运动的主要能量来源。本文主要研究了北太平洋北部的风能输入的季节性分布特征和年际变化趋势,包括风向表面波、表层地转流和表层非地转流的能量输入。基于SODA3数据的结果表明,风能输入门户随季节变化显著,其中黑潮延伸区是冬季门户,副极地流涡是春、秋季门户,大洋东边界则是夏季门户,能量输入强度逐次递减。21世纪以来,秋冬风能输入明显减弱,春季增加,夏季无显著变化。就变化趋势的空间分布而言,向表面波的能量输入由风场主导,而向表层地转流和非地转流的能量输入则由流场主导。这些机械能输入结果对进一步认识该海域的动力机制有重要意义。     

Nutrient irrigation of the North Atlantic

The North Atlantic, as all major oceans, has a remarkable duality in primary production, manifested by the existence of well-defined high and low mean primary production regions. The largest region is the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre (NASTG), an anticyclone characterized by bowl shaped isopycnals and low production. The NASTG is surrounded at its margins by smaller cyclonic high-production regions, where these isopycnals approach the sea surface. The most extensive cyclonic regions are those at the latitudinal extremes, i.e. the subpolar and tropical oceans, though smaller ones do occur at the zonal boundaries. In this article we review historical data and present new analyses of climatological data and a selected number of hydrographic cruises in the western/northwestern and eastern/southeastern boundaries of the NASTG, with the objective of investigating the importance of upward epipycnal advection of nutrient-rich subsurface layers (irrigation) in maintaining high primary production in the euphotic layers. In the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (NASPG) irrigation implies intergyre exchange caused by the outcropping extension of the Gulf Stream (GS), following the formation of the deep winter mixed-layer. In the eastern boundary of the NASTG irrigation is attained through a permanent upwelling cell, which feeds the Canary Upwelling Current (CUC). In the southeastern corner irrigation occurs in fall, when the Guinea Dome (GD) is reinforced, and in winter, when the CUC reaches its southernmost extension. Other characteristics of the north/south extension of the GS/CUC are the seasonal nutrient replenishing of subsurface layers (spring restratification of NASPG and winter relaxation of the GD) and the maintenance of high levels of diapycnal mixing during the last phase of nutrient transfer to the euphotic layers. Off the Mid-Atlantic Bight the GS transports a total of about 700 kmol s⁻¹ of nitrate, with almost 100 kmol s⁻¹ carried in the surface (σ_θ < 26.8) layers and some 350 kmol s⁻¹ in the intermediate (26.8 < σ_θ < 27.5) layers. A box model suggests that north of Cape Hatteras most surface and upper-thermocline nitrates are used to sustain the high levels of primary production in the NASPG. Off Cape Blanc there is winter along-shore convergence of order 10 kmol s⁻¹ of nitrate in the near-surface layers (possibly larger in summer), with only a small fraction used to sustain local primary production in the coastal upwelling band and the remainder carried to the interior ocean. Nutrients and biomass exported from these cyclonic regions may account for the concentration levels observed within the NASTG.     

Organic matter of the North Atlantic

The areas that we studied in the North Atlantic (53 and 60°N) and in the Labrador Sea in the summer were characterized by a wide variability of the concentrations of dissolved and particulate organic matter and its elemental composition both in the surface and in the deep waters. The concentrations of dissolved and particulate C_org varied within 69–360 μM and 0.7–25.6 μM, respectively; the N_org and P_org contents varied within 1.4–22.2 μM and 0.02–0.86 μM, respectively. The maximal concentrations were registered in the photic layer and in the zones of mixing between the waters of different genesis. The particulate matter contribution to the total organic matter (OM) content varied from 0.5 to 15.4%. The waters of the photic layer contained more particulate C_org than those of the near-bottom layer. The values of the C/N molar ratios from the surface to the bottom over the entire aquatic area surveyed varied 5-to 6-fold; at that, the values of the C/P molar ratios varied more than tenfold. In the most productive waters, the values of the C/N ratios were close to the Redfield ratios (6–10). The values of the C/P molar ratios varied from 160 in the photic layer to 4831 in the deep waters. The pronounced non-uniformity in the spatial distribution of the OM and its elemental composition is caused not only by the penetration of the waters of different origins but also by the changes in the microplankton metabolism under mixing of these waters.     

International politics of the North Sea

An account of the research project of the North Sea Study Group of the Royal Institute of International Affairs.