Driving forces of indirect carbon emissions from household consumption in China: an input–output decomposition analysis

Human activities have become a major source of Earth’s climate change, which brings the rise of surface air temperature and subsurface ocean temperature. Therefore, promoting sustainable consumption and production patterns is imperative to minimize the use of natural resources and reduce emissions of pollutants. This study uses Economic Input–Output Life-Cycle Assessment method and structural decomposition model to identify the driving forces that influence the changes in carbon emissions from China’s residential consumption in the context of sustainable consumption. The findings of the study are as follows: (1) indirect carbon emissions from Chinese household consumption increase rapidly over time; (2) the largest carbon dioxide emitting sector turns from agriculture sector in 1992 into service sector in 2007; (3) the consumption level and the emission intensity are the main drivers that influence the change in indirect carbon emissions; and (4) the factor of consumption level presents positive effect on the emissions, while the emission intensity effect plays a negative role. Besides, the factors of urbanization, production structure, population size and consumption structure also promote the rapid increase in carbon emissions.     

Driving forces of indirect carbon emissions from household consumption in China: an input–output decomposition analysis

Human activities have become a major source of Earth’s climate change, which brings the rise of surface air temperature and subsurface ocean temperature. Therefore, promoting sustainable consumption and production patterns is imperative to minimize the use of natural resources and reduce emissions of pollutants. This study uses Economic Input–Output Life-Cycle Assessment method and structural decomposition model to identify the driving forces that influence the changes in carbon emissions from China’s residential consumption in the context of sustainable consumption. The findings of the study are as follows: (1) indirect carbon emissions from Chinese household consumption increase rapidly over time; (2) the largest carbon dioxide emitting sector turns from agriculture sector in 1992 into service sector in 2007; (3) the consumption level and the emission intensity are the main drivers that influence the change in indirect carbon emissions; and (4) the factor of consumption level presents positive effect on the emissions, while the emission intensity effect plays a negative role. Besides, the factors of urbanization, production structure, population size and consumption structure also promote the rapid increase in carbon emissions.

     

Impact of household expenditures on CO2 emissions in China: Income-determined or lifestyle-driven?

The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between household expenditure and CO₂ emissions among different income groups of urban and rural households in China. Having employed the 2007 Social Accounting Matrix of China, this study examines the direct and indirect CO₂ emissions caused by household demand. The results show that within both urban and rural households, the higher the income level is, the higher the per capita emissions are; the CO₂ emissions per unit expenditure due to savings and taxes are generally much larger than those from consumption of goods and services; and these emissions per unit consumption expenditures mainly come from indirect emissions. To deeply explore the relationships between consumption patterns and CO₂ emissions, two scenarios are established to eliminate the differences in income level and consumption propensity among different groups step by step. Main results indicate that (1) the income gap is the primary cause of the significant differences in emission levels among each group; (2) the difference in consumption propensity is also a notable reason; and (3) the rural higher income groups spend a larger share of their income on those carbon-intensive goods (e.g., electricity, transportation, energy products), thus making their consumption patterns more carbon-intensive, while for the urban, the consumption patterns of lower income groups are more carbon-intensive. Finally, policy recommendations on the reduction of household emissions are also made.

     

A Review of the Scientific Assessment and Research on Household Carbon Emission

Household consumption represents an important proportion of all energy consumption,and it is an important source of CO₂ emission. But household consumption and carbon emissions are often overlooked in climate change policies and measures. Through literature review, the research status of household consumption and carbon emissions were reviewed. On this basis, the main aspects and directions of the research are summarized and the main research of household carbon emissions should focus on three aspects in the future: ①The impact of income, consumption levels and other factors on household carbon emission; ②The relationship between direct and indirect carbon emissions of household carbon emission; ③The structure and source of household carbon emission. In future research, there are four issues which need in-depth study: ①Index and models study of household carbon emissions;②Impact of demographic change on household carbon emissions; ③The path of how to achieve sustainable and green urban lifestyle;④The relevant policy research of household carbon emissions.     

Indirect carbon emissions from household consumption between China and the USA: based on an input–output model

Based on an input–output model, this paper calculates carbon emissions from household energy consumption in 2002, 2005, 2007, and 2010 between China and the USA. By a comparative analysis of the two countries, the results indicate the following: (1) In terms of the total household indirect carbon emissions, the USA has always been at a higher level than China. However, in recent years, China has presented a rapidly rising trend. In contrast, the USA appears to be experiencing a downward trend. (2) Indirect carbon emissions from USA household consumption mainly focus on Residence; Education, Culture, and Recreation; and Transport and Communications. By comparison, residence accounts for 50 % of China’s household indirect carbon emissions, and seven other sectors are much less than the USA (3) Although the number of China’s household facilities is growing rapidly, the carbon emissions remain at a relatively steady level. (4) In terms of the absolute value of the indirect carbon emissions from housing, the USA maintains a steady 400 million ton, while China increased from 150 to 500 million ton over 2002–2010.

     

The impact of inter-industry R&D technology spillover on carbon emission in China

Based on input–output table to measure inter-industry R&D technology spillover, this paper introduces inter-industry R&D technology spillover into panel econometric model for carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions factor analysis. Using the panel data of 34 industrial sectors in China from 2005 to 2014, the results reveal that there is an inverted “U-shaped” nonlinear relationship between R&D technology spillover (intensity) and carbon emission; it is estimated that R&D technology spillover can reduce carbon emission currently; the indirect impact of R&D technology spillovers or spillovers intensity through R&D intensity on carbon emissions is also beneficial to carbon emission reduction; at last, this study suggests that industrial sectors should improve R&D intensity and strengthen technical exchanges and cooperation with other related sectors for the purpose of R&D technology spillover increase and CO₂ emissions reduction.     

Strategies for addressing climate change on the industrial level: affecting factors to CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions of energy-intensive industries in China

This paper explores China’s strategies for addressing climate change on the industrial level. Focusing on six energy-intensive industries, this paper applies gray relational analysis theory to the affecting factors to CO₂ emissions of each industry after calculating each industry’s CO₂ emissions during 2001–2010. Further research based on GM(1, 1) model is conducted to forecast the trend of the factors, the energy consumption and each industry’s CO₂ emissions during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. As a breakthrough in previous conclusions, energy consumption structure was divided into the respective proportion of coal, oil, natural gas and electricity in the primary energy consumption, with which industrial output and energy intensity are combined to analyze each of their impacts on the energy-intensive industries. It turns out that all the factors’ impacts on emissions of the six major energy-intensive industries are significant, despite their differentiated extents. It is worth noting that, contrary to previous findings, industrial output is not the leading affecting factor to CO₂ emissions of the energy-intensive industries compared with the proportion of coal and electricity in the primary energy consumption. The GM(1, 1) forecast results of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions by the end of 2015 show that coal and electricity will remain a large proportion in primary energy consumption. This research may shed some light on China’s adjustment of energy structure under the pressure of addressing climate change and hence provide decision support for the acceleration of renewable energy utilization in the industrial departments.     

Economic Impacts of the Geothermal Industry in Beijing,China: An Input–Output Approach

Geothermal energy is a clean energy source that can potentially mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, as its use can lead to a lower mitigation cost. However, research on the economic impacts of the geothermal industry is scarce. This paper describes the effect of the geothermal industry, its economic input and output, using Beijing as a case study. This paper adopts the input–output model. The results show that the demand for and input use of the geothermal sector vary greatly across industrial sectors: electricity, heat production, the supply industry and general equipment manufacturing have the greatest direct consumption coefficient for the geothermal industry. When considering direct and indirect demand, it is clear that the geothermal industry has a great effect on different industrial sectors in diverse ways. Its influence coefficient and sensitivity coefficient are 1.2167 (ranked 11th) and 1.2293 (ranked 8th), respectively, revealing that it exerts obvious demand-pulling and supply-pushing effects on the regional economy.

     

Effects of gas pricing reform on China’s price level and total output

Natural gas plays an important role in the mitigation of climate change, yet its development is constrained by the current natural gas pricing mechanism in China. In the context of the natural gas pricing reform, this paper analyzes the potential effects on price level and total output. Through the input–output model, some conclusions are drawn as follows: (1) The gas pricing reform has relatively great impact on the products’ price of the sectors that have large gas consumption, such as industrial sectors and some service sectors, and on the total output of the gas production and supply sectors and the petroleum and natural gas extraction sectors, whereas the reform has relatively small impact on other industries; (2) effects of gas pricing reform on urban and rural residents are dissymmetrical, with larger effects on urban residents and (3) the reform has relatively small impacts on both various price indices and total output levels; thus, the government can realize the promotion of gas pricing reform nationwide at a cost of relatively small increase in general price level and little lose of total output.     

Effects of gas pricing reform on China’s price level and total output

Natural gas plays an important role in the mitigation of climate change, yet its development is constrained by the current natural gas pricing mechanism in China. In the context of the natural gas pricing reform, this paper analyzes the potential effects on price level and total output. Through the input–output model, some conclusions are drawn as follows: (1) The gas pricing reform has relatively great impact on the products’ price of the sectors that have large gas consumption, such as industrial sectors and some service sectors, and on the total output of the gas production and supply sectors and the petroleum and natural gas extraction sectors, whereas the reform has relatively small impact on other industries; (2) effects of gas pricing reform on urban and rural residents are dissymmetrical, with larger effects on urban residents and (3) the reform has relatively small impacts on both various price indices and total output levels; thus, the government can realize the promotion of gas pricing reform nationwide at a cost of relatively small increase in general price level and little lose of total output.

     

Determinants of the increased CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emission and adaption strategy in Chinese energy-intensive industry

Climate change has not only brought about many natural hazards but also threaten the sustainable development of industry. This study is to investigate the adaptive implications for energy-intensive industries of China in response to climate change impacts. For this purpose, a deep and comprehensive analysis on the change of CO₂ emission for 6 energy-intensive sectors is explored over the period of 2000–2007. A Log-Mean Divisia Index based on time series is also introduced in our study to identify the key factors toward the change of CO₂ emission. It is shown that there were 146.1 million metric tons carbon increased in energy-intensive industries from 2000 to 2007. And the excessive growth of industrial output and increasingly fossil-intensive energy consumption structure were the main driving forces for the increased CO₂ emission. Nevertheless, energy intensity change and declining emission coefficient of electricity played negative role in the growing trend of CO₂ emission. On the basis of these four determinants (namely industrial output, energy intensity, fuel mix effect, and emission coefficient), it is suggested that both economic motives and technologically feasible approaches should be implemented to control the scale of excessive productions and improve energy efficiency toward the energy-intensive industries. And more importantly, strengthening energy-intensive sectors’ awareness of climate change adaptation should be given stronger emphasis as long-term work with the help of some propaganda campaigns for instance.     

Stress of urban energy consumption on air environment

With rapid urbanization and heavy industrialization as well as the rapid increase of cars in China, the effect of energy consumption on urban air environment is increasingly becoming serious, and has become a hot topic for both scholars and decision-makers. This paper explores the effect mechanism and regulation of urban energy consumption on the air environment, and summarizes the framework of the stress effect relationship and the evolutionary process. In accordance with the effect relationship of the internal factors between the two, analytic approaches studying the stress effect of urban energy consumption on air environment are proposed, including the analysis of air environment effects caused by urban energy consumption structure change, and the analysis of air environment effects caused by urban energy economic efficiency change, as well as a decomposition analysis of air pollutant emission caused by urban energy consumption. Applying the above-mentioned approaches into a case study on Beijing City, this paper analyzes the effect relationship among urban energy consumption structure improvement, energy economic efficiency increase and air quality change since the period when Beijing City officially proposed to bid for the 2008 Olympic Games in 1998. In addition, it further analyzes the effect and contribution of urban industrial activity level, industrial economic structure, industrial energy intensity, and industrial energy structure as well as emission coefficients on the change in industrial SO₂ emission, which can provide valuable information to the government for making comprehensive environmental policies, with the use of the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method. It is shown that under the precondition that the industrial economy maintain a continuous and rapid increase, improvements in energy intensity and a decline in emission coefficients are the main means for reducing Beijing’s industrial SO₂ emissions.     

Measuring global energy-related sulfur oxides emissions embodied in trade: a multi-regional and multi-sectoral analysis

Sulfur oxides (SO_X) emissions embodied in trade (SEET) may play an important role in affecting national responsibilities toward pollutant emission reduction within the context of global greenhouse gas emission policy. This paper analyzes the change of the SEET associated with energy consumption from the perspective of a country and a sector between 1995 and 2011, exploring the evolution characteristic of the sources and flows of the SEET for 39 countries, as well as measuring the production-based and consumption-based global SO_X emissions’ inventory and investigating the impact of international trade on the allocation of national pollutant emissions’ reduction obligations. One important finding is that the volume of SO_X emissions embodied in global trade increased dramatically from 1995 to 2011, and the global SO_X emissions stemming from anthropogenic energy consumption are mostly from China and the USA. Another important finding is that, referring to specific sectors, whether seen from the total SEET or from the sources of SEET or from the total SO_X emissions occurring from economic consumption and production, energy sectors, like electricity, gas, and water supply and coke, refined petroleum, and nuclear fuel, are the main contributors to the increase in the global SO_X emissions. Notably, however, our results show that the sector of agriculture, hunting, forestry, and fishing should be allocated more SO_X emission reduction responsibilities under a consumption-based emissions’ accounting inventory.

     

Research Progress on the Impact of Urbanization on Climate Change

The world has been undergoing a remarkable process of urbanization, especially in developing countries in recent years. The urbanization process has brought about great urban development and large population agglomeration, changes in production and lifestyle, and man-made disturbances such as greenhouse gas and pollution emissions. As the global urbanization process continues to advance, its impact on climate change continues to strengthen significantly. This paper mainly reviewed and summarized relevant researches from two aspects: the influence of urbanization on climate change and the mechanism of influence of urbanization on climate change. Urbanization causes regional warming and urban heat island effect, extreme events such as high temperature, heat wave and heavy rainfall increase in frequency, and also leads to increased urban flood risk. The increase of pollutant emission in the process of urbanization is the main cause of air quality deterioration. Urbanization also has an indirect impact on air quality by changing urban climate. Urbanization has an important impact on climatic factors such as relative humidity, wind speed, sunshine and cloud cover. The impacts of urbanization on climate change are mainly realized through underlying surface changes, greenhouse gas and pollution emissions, anthropogenic heat emissions and urban high heat capacity. Urbanization not only directly affects the regional/local climate, but also indirectly affects the regional/local climate by promoting global climate change. Therefore, the impact of urbanization on climate change has a global and regional multi-scale superposition effect.     

Correlation between land-use change and greenhouse gas emissions in urban areas

Urban areas are the main sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Previous studies have identified the effectiveness of better urban design on mitigating climate change and land-use patterns in cities as important factors in reducing GHG by local governments. However, studies documenting the link between land-use and GHG emissions are scant. Therefore, this study explores the driving forces of land-use change and GHG emission increments in urban areas and investigates their correlations. The study area, Xinzhuang, is a satellite city of Taipei that has rapidly urbanized in the past few decades. Twenty-one potential variables were selected to determine the driving forces of land-use change and GHG emission increments by binomial logistic regression based on the investigation data of national land use in 1996 and 2007. The correlation of land-use change and GHG increments was examined by Spearman rank-order analysis. Results of logistic regression analysis identified that population and its increasing density rate are main driving forces on both land-use change and GHG increments. The Spearman rank correlation matrix indicates that fluctuating urbanization level is significantly correlated with the increase of total GHG emissions, the emissions of residence, commerce, and transportation sectors in neighborhoods; and the emissions of residence and transportation sectors seem closely connected to current urbanization level. The findings suggest that relationships among land-use, urbanization, and GHG emissions in urban areas vary greatly according to residence and transportation characteristics. Land-based mitigation may provide the most viable mechanism for reducing GHG emissions through residence and transportation sectors.     

Rural development and rural to urban migration in China 1978–1990

Economic reforms since the late 1970s have brought about significant changes in rural China. A large number of surplus rural labourers have been released from the agricultural sector and there has been a massive transition of rural residents from agricultural to non-agricultural employment. These changes will be analyzed by examining the changes in the employment structure of rural residents. Rural to urban migration is another important option for many rural labourers. The size of China's urban population and the scale of rural to urban migration continue to be an ‘enigma’ due to several changes in the definition of the urban population. Several data sources will be used to provide more realistic estimates of rural to urban migrations on a set of comparable though different bases. Data on the new entries into urban employment and the urban ‘non-agricultural population’ will be used to illustrate the scale of migration by rural residents to the formal urban sector. This may only record those migrants who have changed their registration status from ‘agricultural population’ to ‘non-agricultural population’ which is tightly controlled by the government. The 1990 Census data provide some evidence on the rural to urban migration by the registered ‘agricultural population’. The 1987 1% population sampling data will be used to analyze the actual migrations among cities, towns and counties over the period 1982–1987. It is found that town and county populations tended to move to towns at the intra-provincial level, but to cities at the inter-provincial level. Out-migrants from cities tended to move to cities at both the intra- and inter-provincial levels.     

Effects of inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus enrichment on the emission of N<Subscript>2</Subscript>O from a freshwater marsh soil in Northeast China

The freshwater marshes in northern China are heavily impacted by anthropogenic disturbances such as cultivation and fertilization and increased levels of nutrients (especially N and P) through atmospheric deposition and agricultural surface runoff. These disturbances have affected the emission of N₂O from these systems. This laboratory study was conducted to determine the effects of increased inputs of inorganic N and P on N₂O emission from marsh soil in response to different soil moisture conditions. The results showed that the emission of N₂O increased with the enhancement of N inputs when the soil was submerged, but that the highest N treatment suppressed the emission of N₂O when the soil was at 60% water holding capacity (WHC), which may have occurred due to an inadequate amount of available C. Furthermore, the results of this study indicated that a small amount of N fertilizer induced much more N₂O evolution from freshwater wetland soil, while P fertilizer inputs appeared to stimulate the emission of N₂O only during the first few days of the experiment. Additionally, soil that was treated with P appeared to absorb N₂O when it was at 60% WHC after around 6 weeks of the incubation, which indicates that the input of P fertilizer might serve as a shift of source or N₂O sink in wetland soils under non-flooded conditions. When compared to soil at 60% WHC, submerged soil had significantly higher N₂O emissions, except when subjected to the medial N treatment. These findings indicate that the soil moisture condition had a significant effect on N₂O emissions when the same amount of N or P was applied. Therefore, the effects of N and P fertilization in the northern temperate wetlands cannot be neglected from regional or national emissions of N₂O.     

Multi-peril risk assessment for business downtime of industrial facilities

The chemical industry is one of the most important industry sectors in terms of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in China. However, few studies have undertaken accounting of the CO₂ emissions in the chemical industry. In addition, there are some shortcomings in the traditional accounting method as a result of poor data availability, such as the incomplete consideration of emission sources and overestimation of actual emissions. Based on the traditional accounting method and the actual situation of the chemical industry, this study proposes a method called the Emission Accounting Model in the Chemical Industry, which covers fossil energy-related emission, indirect emission generated by electricity and heat, carbonate-related process emission and the reuse of CO₂. In particular, fossil energy used as feedstock is included. By applying the Emission Accounting Model in the Chemical Industry in China, the calculated CO₂ emissions would be 19–30% less than the result from the traditional method. In addition, it is found that the indirect CO₂ emissions generated by electricity and heat account for 67% of the total amount, the fossil energy-related emissions account for approximately 37%, the process-related emissions accounted for 2%, and reuse of CO₂ accounts for ??6% in 2016. The production of ammonia, ethylene and calcium carbide generated approximately half of the total CO₂ emissions in 2016. In addition, in view of emission sources and carbon source flow, two other bottom-up accounting methods are proposed that can take effect when the chemical plant-level data are available.

     

Volatile (H<Subscript>2</Subscript>O,CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>, Cl,S) budget of the Central American subduction zone

After more than a decade of multidisciplinary studies of the Central American subduction zone mainly in the framework of two large research programmes, the US MARGINS program and the German Collaborative Research Center SFB 574, we here review and interpret the data pertinent to quantify the cycling of mineral-bound volatiles (H₂O, CO₂, Cl, S) through this subduction system. For input-flux calculations, we divide the Middle America Trench into four segments differing in convergence rate and slab lithological profiles, use the latest evidence for mantle serpentinization of the Cocos slab approaching the trench, and for the first time explicitly include subduction erosion of forearc basement. Resulting input fluxes are 40–62 (53) Tg/Ma/m H₂O, 7.8–11.4 (9.3) Tg/Ma/m CO₂, 1.3–1.9 (1.6) Tg/Ma/m Cl, and 1.3–2.1 (1.6) Tg/Ma/m S (bracketed are mean values for entire trench length). Output by cold seeps on the forearc amounts to 0.625–1.25 Tg/Ma/m H₂O partly derived from the slab sediments as determined by geochemical analyses of fluids and carbonates. The major volatile output occurs at the Central American volcanic arc that is divided into ten arc segments by dextral strike-slip tectonics. Based on volcanic edifice and widespread tephra volumes as well as calculated parental magma masses needed to form observed evolved compositions, we determine long-term (10⁵ years) average magma and K₂O fluxes for each of the ten segments as 32–242 (106) Tg/Ma/m magma and 0.28–2.91 (1.38) Tg/Ma/m K₂O (bracketed are mean values for entire Central American volcanic arc length). Volatile/K₂O concentration ratios derived from melt inclusion analyses and petrologic modelling then allow to calculate volatile fluxes as 1.02–14.3 (6.2) Tg/Ma/m H₂O, 0.02–0.45 (0.17) Tg/Ma/m CO₂, and 0.07–0.34 (0.22) Tg/Ma/m Cl. The same approach yields long-term sulfur fluxes of 0.12–1.08 (0.54) Tg/Ma/m while present-day open-vent SO₂-flux monitoring yields 0.06–2.37 (0.83) Tg/Ma/m S. Input–output comparisons show that the arc water fluxes only account for up to 40 % of the input even if we include an “invisible” plutonic component constrained by crustal growth. With 20–30 % of the H₂O input transferred into the deeper mantle as suggested by petrologic modeling, there remains a deficiency of, say, 30–40 % in the water budget. At least some of this water is transferred into two upper-plate regions of low seismic velocity and electrical resistivity whose sizes vary along arc: one region widely envelopes the melt ascent paths from slab top to arc and the other extends obliquely from the slab below the forearc to below the arc. Whether these reservoirs are transient or steady remains unknown.