金沙江乌东德水电站暴雨概念模型与云型特征

利用自动气象观测站降水资料、常规地面与高空观测资料及卫星云图资料,对2012—2017年6—10月金沙江乌东德水电站坝区18次暴雨个例的大尺度环流背景及卫星云图演变特征进行统计分析,结果表明,切变冷锋型、两高辐合型、西南涡型、孟加拉湾风暴型、切变线型和高空槽型是金沙江乌东德水电站坝区的六类暴雨概念模型。总结归纳出对应的六类典型云型：切变线云带前界处的对流云团8次(占44.4%)、两高辐合云区内部的对流云团4次(占22.2%)、西南涡西南或东南象限的对流云团2次(占11.1%)、孟加拉湾风暴涡旋云系中分离出来的对流云团或对流云系2次(占11.1%)、切变线云带内部的对流云团1次(占5.6%)、高空槽前盾状卷云区南端的对流云系1次(占5.6%)。     

引发四川盆地西南地区暴雨的高原涡特征分析

为进一步认识高原涡对盆地西南地区暴雨过程的影响,总结该区域暴雨预报经验,本文利用2001～2011年高原涡切变线年鉴、MICAPS实况天气图、盆地西南地区气象站日降雨量资料以及NCEP再分析资料,对引起盆地西南地区暴雨过程的高原涡特征进行总结分析,得到结论:1)引发盆地西南地区产生暴雨量级以上降雨的高原涡过程多发生在每年7月;高原涡东移将对盆地西南地区产生明显降雨;48小时后大部分高原涡减弱消失,少数继续东移或东南移;2)引发盆地西南地区产生暴雨的高原涡通常是暖性高原涡,高原涡东移48小时后有明显的冷平流入侵转变成斜压性低涡;这一类高原涡常常与高原切变、西南低涡、副高、低空急流以及南亚高压等影响系统相配合,共同作用产生一次暴雨过程;3)引发的盆地西南地区暴雨的高原涡过程的温湿场特征为:500hPa高原东部到盆地上空的大气高温高湿的特征明显,700hPa和850hPa盆地高温高湿,同时垂直上升运动旺盛且随高度向北倾斜。      

热带风暴"菲特"(0114)特大暴雨的诊断研究

海南岛破历史记录的两场特大暴雨都是由穿过琼州海峡的台风所造成,热带风暴"菲特"(Fitow)就是其中的一个.由红外卫星云图、雷达和常规地面加密观测资料发现,当"菲特"穿越琼州海峡时,在其西南侧的海南岛五指山西北侧有一个中尺度对流小涡系统(MCS)生成.特大暴雨就出现在MCS所在地区.作者用PSU/NCAR的中尺度模式对这场暴雨和MCS作了模拟研究,发现当"菲特"穿越琼州海峡时,其外围流场和五指山山脉的辐合极有利于MCS的生成.诊断分析的结果表明,山脉地形生成的MCS,具有很强的上层辐散,中低空有大范围辐合和强的正涡度场.在暴雨加强时,正涡度向中层伸展,高层辐散明显加强.同时, 暴雨区出现较强的垂直运动.上升运动大值区出现在对流层上层,这可能和上层辐散加强有关.这场暴雨的水汽来自南海北部,经由"菲特"东侧的西南气流卷入涡旋之中, 产生较强的水汽辐合.这也是潜热供应的源.诊断分析的结果还表明, MCS所在大气中下层出现了较强的位势不稳定层结,这对这场暴雨提供了对流加强和水汽向上输送的热力条件.     

对流涡度矢量垂直分量在西南涡暴雨中的应用

将对流涡度矢量 (CVV) 应用于浅薄系统西南低涡引发的暴雨中,特别是将对流涡度矢量垂直分量 (C_z) 应用在2010年7月16—18日由西南涡引发的一次暴雨过程诊断中。研究了CVV垂直积分的各个分量与6 h累积降水量的关系,尤其是CVV垂直分量在西南涡暴雨过程中的指示意义。诊断结果表明:CVV垂直分量与西南涡引发的暴雨有一定对应关系,强降水发生时段与C_z垂直积分峰值出现的时间对应一致;在对流层低层850 hPa水平分布上,暴雨区位于CVV垂直分量的正值中心附近,偏向其梯度较大处;沿暴雨中心的CVV垂直分量,当对流层低层至高层呈现一致的正值时,暴雨强度会明显加强。     

双多普勒雷达风场反演对一次后向传播雷暴过程的分析

利用常规观测、雷达和加密自动站资料,对2013年9月13日上海地区的一次以后向传播为主要特征、伴有强降水和大风的强对流过程进行了分析,并采用双多普勒雷达风场反演等技术,对其形成的环境条件及后向传播机制进行了研究。由于上海连续多日处在副热带高压(副高)西北侧边缘,具备了充足的水汽和较强的不稳定条件,地面辐合线在上海北部触发了初始对流,其出流与地面风场的辐合在西南侧不断触发出新的对流单体,出现了与引导气流相反、指向西南方向的雷暴传播矢量,当单体的新生传播速率大于引导流速率时,雷暴整体产生了与引导气流相反的后向移动。针对该后向传播机制的研究表明:对流单体强下沉运动形成的阵风锋在其西南方向与环境西南风辐合,并与该处原有的地面辐合线碰撞造成更强烈的上升气流,触发新的单体生成,新单体发展成熟后产生强降水和强下沉运动,加强和维持了其西南侧的阵风锋,使得阵风锋向西南方向推进并继续触发新单体生成;风场反演的垂直运动分布和演变也显示了多个对流单体从东北向西南依次表现出消散、成熟和新生阶段的特征。因此,本次过程中形成了"雷暴单体新生发展—成熟后缓慢东北向移动—产生强降水、下沉运动和大风在其西南侧触发新单体"的循环;向西南方向推进的地面阵风锋与原有的地面辐合线共同形成了雷暴西南侧局地锋生区,与新生对流区的位置一致,是该次过程后向传播的主要原因。     

0604号强热带风暴"碧利斯"结构特征及其暴雨成因分析

利用NCEP再分析资料、FY2C卫星的OLR及红外云图资料,以及地面台站观测资料,对0604号强热带风暴“碧利斯”的结构特征以及对其登陆后深入内陆造成强降水的成因进行了综合分析,研究结果表明:(1)强热带风暴“碧利斯”结构不对称,南部云系发展旺盛,强降水集中在风暴南侧,呈现明显的不对称分布;(2)副热带高压强度偏强,位置偏西,使得热带风暴登陆后向西偏南方向移动,并在移动过程中与南海季风相互作用,激发了中尺度强降水系统的不断发生;(3)充沛的水汽条件,低层辐合,高层辐散,并伴有深厚的较强上升运动,以及有利的地形都是热带风暴长时间维持并产生大范围强降水的有利条件.     

强热带风暴碧利斯造成华南持续大暴雨成因分析

统计分析了山东省枣庄1958～2005年逐日及逐月降水资料,发现20世纪50年代末期到60年代中期鲁南为多雨期,60年代中期到60年代末期有一个短暂的少雨期,70年代初中期有一个短暂的多雨期,70年代中期到90年代末期是一个较长时段的降水偏少期.2000年以后进入多雨时期,2000、2003及2005年出现局部洪涝灾害.文章引入相当暴雨日数的概念,研究了相当暴雨日数与大涝、大旱年的关系,发现大涝、大早年的降水量更取决于汛期相当暴雨日数的多少;用相当暴雨日数和年降水量建立回归方程,在一定程度上,相当暴雨日数能很好地预测当年旱涝.     

一次孟加拉湾风暴和冷空气影响下滇西大暴雨中尺度分析

应用MICAPS资料, 通过天气诊断分析, 结合FY-2卫星云图及德宏CINRAD-CC雷达体扫资料, 分析了发生在2004年5月18日滇西地区的大暴雨过程。发现本次大暴雨过程天气尺度影响系统为初夏孟加拉湾风暴及南下冷锋切变; 大暴雨发生在高能高湿的水汽辐合中心、700 hPa螺旋度正值区及湿 Q 矢量散度大值辐合区内; 卫星云图上, 多个β-中尺度对流系统在大暴雨区发展; 多普勒雷达回波为絮状混合型降水回波, 强度在30~44 dBz之间, 频繁出现的逆风区、低空急流、中尺度辐合线等中小尺度系统是造成本次大暴雨的直接影响系统。     

气旋类山东暴雨过程天气学特征研究

利用天气观测资料、NECP/NCAR再分析资料对1999-2009年发生的24例气旋导致的山东大范围的暴雨过程进行了研究。参照教科书分类标准将气旋分为黄河气旋型、黄淮气旋型与江淮气旋型,在丰富前人气候统计特征的基础上,提炼出概念模型。针对每类气旋重点分析气旋发展的动力机制、水汽特征,确定暴雨落区与各物理量场的配置关系。结论如下：(1)黄河气旋型暴雨落区在气旋移动方向的左前方,暖锋附近,天气尺度强迫有利于暴雨产生,水汽来源于西南气流输送或气旋本身。(2)黄淮气旋型暴雨落区在气旋移动方向的左前方,属暖区降水,高低空急流的垂直耦合诱发深对流,促使暴雨产生。(3)江淮气旋型暴雨落区在气旋中心北侧,属冷区降水,其环流形势经向度较大,诱使低层低涡切变线北移,为系统性暴雨的产生提供水汽条件和动力条件。(4)三类气旋暴雨过程中,对流层高层多为辐散场或高空急流入口区的右侧,低层多有低涡配合;当有低空偏南风急流出现时,降水量大,反之,则小;暴雨中心均与850hPa水汽通量散度辐合区、高比湿区及高能舌区三者相叠置的位置相吻合。     

热带风暴Fitow(0114)暴雨的中尺度特征及成因分析

利用非静力中尺度模式MM5对0114号热带风暴Fitow从2001年8月31日00时(UTC)到9月2日00时的降水过程进行了模拟,采用滤波方法对模式结果进行了尺度分离,分析了暴雨发生时的中尺度特征及成因.结果表明:MM5模式对Fitow登陆过程的降水模拟较成功,暴雨的落区和强度与实况比较一致.Fitow暴雨的中尺度特征在降水的时间尺度、空间尺度、高低空流场和散度场上都很明显.正是维持少动的TC倒槽和嵌入其上的这些中小尺度系统相互作用造成了暴雨的发生,而高低空中尺度散度场的配置对这类暴雨有很好的指示意义.华南地形和海陆分布与暴雨的发生发展有密切的关系.弱的层结不稳定或中性层结是有利于暴雨系统发展的环境条件.     

梅雨暴雨与高空急流的统计与动力分析

对1991、1996、1998年梅雨暴雨与高空急流进行了统计与合成分析。结果表明，大尺度环流形势稳定是1991、1998年梅雨期局部降水时间较长的主要原因，1996年环流形势多变，难以在局地长久维持。梅雨暴雨与高空急流关系密切，暴雨多出现在西北风高空急流的右前方或西南风高空急流的右后方。西南风高空急流造成梅雨暴雨的高层辐散场多由经向风辐散形成，西北风高空急流多出现纬向风辐散，当其与南亚高压东部的经向风辐散配合时往往会造成较强的暴雨，1998年这类情况出现最多。南亚高压东北象限的偏北风对雨区南侧季风反环流的形成有重要作用。     

SIMULATION STUDY ON CAUSES OF TROPICAL STORM FITOW (0114) HEAVY RAIN

With PSU/NCAR nonhydrostatic mesoscale model MM5, the rainfall process of tropical storm Fitow(0114) is simulated for 00:00 UTC 31 Aug. – 00:00 UTC 2 Sept. 2001. Mesoscale separation is performed on the results with the filtering scheme. Analyses show that the MM5 model well reproduced the position and intensity of heavy rain. Mesoscale characteristics of heavy rain were well represented in rainfall time scale, rainfall area, stream field and divergence at lower and upper levels. The interaction between inverted typhoon troughs and the mesoscale systems lead to heavy rain occurrence. The distribution of divergence fields at lower and upper levels can have a kind of indication for the rainfall. Heavy rains are closely associated with topography and land-sea distribution in South China. Weak instability is favorable to the generation of heavy rain.     

强热带风暴“碧利斯”的暴雨特征和成因分析

本文采用常规探测资料、中尺度自动气象站资料、卫星云图以及中尺度数值模式输出的高分辨率资料对强热带风暴"碧利斯"的暴雨特征和成因进行分析;结果表明,在大陆高压、西太平洋高压的阻挡下,台风环流云系得到西南季风的补充作用,水汽热量和动力都得到大量补偿,从而大大推迟了台风环流的衰亡,造成"碧丽斯"超长的生命史和缓慢的移动速度,给华南地区带来持续强降水;环流云系中的中小尺度辐合线、强烈的上升运动、低层辐合高层辐散的配置以及华南地区的地形对环流维持和降水增幅具有十分重要的意义。     

ANALYSIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE PRECIPITATION FOR DIFFERENT INTENSITY CLASS IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC WITH TRMM DATA

Combined with TRMM products and Tropical Cyclone (TC) best track data in Northwest Pacific from 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2009, a total of 118 TCs, including 336 instantaneous TC precipitation observations are established as the TRMM TC database, and the database is stratified into four intensity classes according to the standard of TC intensity adopted by China Meteorological Administration (CMA): Severe Tropical Storm (STS), Typhoon (TY), Severe Typhoon (STY) and Super Typhoon (SuperTY). For each TC snapshot, the mean rainfall distribution is computed using 10-km annuli from the TC center to a 300-km radius, then the axisymmetric component of TC rainfall is represented by the radial distribution of the azimuthal mean rain rate; the mean rain rates, rain types occurrence and contribution proportion are computed for each TC intensity class; and the mean quadrantal distribution of rain rates along TCs motion is analyzed. The result shows that: (1) TCs mean rain rates increase with their intensity classes, and their radial distributions show single-peak characteristic gradually, and furthermore, the characteristics of rain rates occurrence and contribution proportion change from dual-peak to single-peak distribution, with the peak rain rate at about 5.0 mm/h; (2) Stratiform rain dominate the rain type in the analysis zone, while convective rain mainly occurred in the eye-wall region; (3) The values of mean rain rate in each quadrant along TCs motion are close to each other, relatively, the value in the right-rear quadrant is the smallest one.     

超级单体单体多单体雹云及其成雹特点的数值模拟研究

用数值模拟方法模拟了超级单体、单体和多单体雹云的流场和水凝结物场,并对其成雹规律进行了数值模拟研究。结果表明：可长成大雹的雹胚的初始出发区的位置主要由雹云的流场决定,而与雹胚的大小关系不明显;３种类型的雹云的成雹规律是相似的,超级单体之所以可以降大雹,主要是由于流型的稳定和长的生命期。     

Sensitivities of tornadogenesis to drop size distribution in a simulated subtropical supercell over eastern China

ABSTRACT Numerical simulations with the Advanced Regional Prediction System （ARPS） model were performed to investigate the impact of microphysical drop size distribution （DSD） on tornadogenesis in a subtropical supercell thunderstorm over Anhui Province, eastern China. Sensitivity experiments with different intercept parameters of rain, hail and snow DSDs in a Lin-type microphysics scheme were conducted. Results showed that rain and hail DSDs have a significant impact on the simulated storm both microphysically and dynamically. DSDs characterized by larger （smaller） intercepts have a smaller （larger） particle size and a lower （higher） mass-weighted mean fall velocity, and produce relatively stronger （weaker） and wider （narrower） cold pools through enhanced （reduced） rain evaporation and hail melting processes, which are then less favorable （favorable） for tornadogenesis. However, tornadogenesis will also be suppressed by the weakened mid-level mesocyclone when the cold pool is too weak. When compared to a U.S. Great Plain case, the two microphysical processes are more sensitive to DSD variations in the present case with a higher melting level and deeper warm layer. This suggests that DSD-related cloud microphysics has a stronger influence on tornadogenesis in supercells over the subtropics than the U.S. Great Plains.     

Precipitation Structures of a Thermal Convective System Happened in the Central Western Subtropical Pacific Anticyclone

In this paper, characteristics of precipitating clouds in a thermal convective system (TCS) occurred in the southeastern mainland of China at 15:00 BT (Beijing time) on August 2, 2003 in the central western subtropical Pacific anticyclone (WSPA) is studied by using TRMM tropical rainfallmeasuring mission PR (precipitution radar) and IR Infrared radiation measurements. The precipitating cloud structures in both horizontal and vertical, relationship among storm top, cloud top, and surface rain rate are particularly analyzed. Results show that a strong ascending air at 500 hPa and a strong convergence of moisture flux at 850 hPa in the central WSPA supply necessary conditions both in dynamics and moisture for the happening of the TCS precipitation. The TRMM PR observation shows that the horizontal scale of the most TCS precipitating clouds is about 30-40 km, their averaged vertical scale is above 10 km, and the maximum reaches 17.5 km. The maximum rain rate near surface of those TCS clouds is beyond 50 mm h-1. The mean rain profile of the TCS clouds shows that its maximum rain rate at 5 km altitude is 1 km lower than the estimated freezing level of the environment. Compared with the mesoscale convective system (MCS) of "98.7.20", both systems have the same altitude of the maximum rain rate displayed from both mean rain profiles, but the TCS is much deeper than the MCS. From the altitude of the maximum rain rate to near surface, profiles show that rain rate reducing in the TCS is faster than that in the MCS, which implies a strong droplet evaporation process occurring in the TCS. Relationship among cloud top, storm top, and surface rain rate analysis indicates a large variation of cloud top when storm top is lower. On the contrary, the higher the storm top, the more consistent both cloud top and storm top. And, the larger the surface rain rate, the higher and more consistent for both cloud top and storm top. At the end, results expose that area fractions of non-precipitating clouds and clear sky are 86% and 2%, respectively. The area fraction of precipitating clouds is only about 1/8 that of non-precipitating clouds.     

The role of the land surface processes in the rainfall generated by a landfall typhoon: A simulation of the typhoon Sepat (2007)

Landfall tropical cyclones are a major kind of severe weather affecting China. The typhoon Sepat, declassified as tropical storm after its landfalling, caused a continuous heavy rainfall event over China mainland from 19th to 25th August, 2007. The storm cyclone resided over the Hunan province for 60 hours, causing observed accumulated precipitation larger than 300 mm in a large area of the Hunan province and leading severe flood events. This event was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the surface layer scheme UTOPIA. The model was able to reproduce the main characteristics of the event, including the typhoon track and the rainfall field and timing. In addition, three sets of sensitivity experiments have been performed. In the first one, the effects of different land surface schemes (RUC, NOAH and UTOPIA) coupled with WRF on the precipitation, sensible and latent heat flux fields associated with the Typhoon Sepat (2007) were investigated. The second set of sensitivity experiments analyzed the role of the surface fluxes (sensible and latent heat flux) on the typhoon evolution. The third set of sensitivity experiments regarded the initialization of the soil moisture content. These experiments showed that both latent and sensible heat fluxes sustained this landfalling typhoon, maintaining the spiral structure of rain belt. Among the two fluxes, the latent heat one played a major role in determining the intensity, the track and the rainfall distribution of the typhoon. In addition, the correct initialization of the soil moisture content has reveled a fundamental parameter to be initialized in order to correctly evaluate the distribution and intensity of the rain field. The intercomparison between the three different land surface schemes coupled with WRF showed that the WRF-UTOPIA and WRF-NOAH outputs seem comparable between each other and physically most realistic than those of WRF-RUC. These analyses were helpful to understand the evolution and the development of the landfalling typhoon, and demonstrated that WRF-UTOPIA and WRF-NOAH could be considered a good tool for managing the risk evaluation connected with the occurrence of such events at regional scale.     

多普勒雷达资料在暴雨临近预报中的应用

强暴雨、台风暴雨等灾害性暴雨天气是造成洪涝灾害最主要的降水天气系统。以广州雷达和梅州雷达的拼图资料以及温州单站雷达资料为基础, 讨论了TREC方法中时间步长、网格大小及雨强阈值等参数变化对跟踪结果的影响, 并对TREC矢量场进行了平滑处理, 这在一定程度上减少了TREC矢量场中由于地物回波和回波梯度变化造成的一些明显错误的矢量, 得到较为连续的矢量场, 并将得到的矢量场用于暴雨的临近预报。个例分析及预报结果的验证表明:通过选择合适的参数, 雨强CAPPI、反射率因子CAPPI和CR 3种资料得到的TREC矢量场一致性好, 能够反映我国的强暴雨、台风暴雨等灾害性暴雨的移动方向。CR资料的外推预报结果稍差于其他两者, 3种资料预报的准确性都随着预报时间的递增而降低, 对连续时刻的TREC矢量进行拟合, 有助于提高预报准确率。TREC方法对于结构比较复杂、不易识别的台风暴雨等灾害性暴雨天气, 在预警方面具有一定应用价值。     

川西南地区大暴雨气候特征分析

本文用1958～2010年53年的乐山、眉山、雅安三市大暴雨降水资料,从气候趋势、时空分布等方面分析了川西大暴雨的气候变化特征：1）53年内盆地西南的大暴雨主要分布在雅安东北、眉山西南、乐山西北部地区,在该区域形成一暴雨中心圈;2）大暴雨发生次数在洪雅、峨嵋、夹江、天全等地有减少趋势;而在雅安、青神、沐川则有增强趋势;3）雅安和乐山两地大暴雨次数历年分布有一定的同步性,眉山的大暴雨次数分布和雅、乐两地的关联不明显;4）三地大暴雨分布的主要特征形态为以雅安、名山、洪雅、峨嵋为中心区域的一致性分布为主;第二种主要分布形态为雅安和峨嵋两个中心的反相关状态.此外,对历史上两次特大暴雨的天气形势进行分析,揭示特大暴雨发生的背景和条件.