热带西太平洋夏季风和南海夏季风之间的联系

根据热带西太平洋（１３０°－１６０°Ｅ,１０°－２０°Ｎ）上空对流的年际变化,对表面温度、向外长波幅射、８５０ ｈＰａ纬向风进行了合成分析。合成分析结果表明,热带西太平洋上空的弱（强）对流对应着前冬和春季厄尔尼诺（拉尼娜）型的海温异常。与以前的研究结果进行了比较,说明上述海温异常的时空分布也与热带西太平洋和南海季风的爆发早晚相关联。合成分析结果还表明,热带西太平洋上空的弱（强）对流对应着从热带西太平洋向西伸展到盂加拉湾的东风（西风）异常。数值模拟也得到类似的结果。此外,在对流弱（强）的夏季,热带西太平洋上空的对流和南海低层纬向风均表现出弱（强）的季节演变特征。     

季节转换期间副热带高压带形态变异及其机制的研究Ⅱ:亚洲季风区季节转换指数

在“季节转换期间副热带高压带形态变异及其机制的研究Ⅰ :副热带高压结构气候学特征研究”的基础上 ,进一步讨论亚洲夏季风爆发与当地对流层中上层东西向暖脊的经向位置变化关系。亚洲夏季风相继在孟加拉湾、南海和南亚爆发期间 ,除了对流层高、低空风场及深对流活动在季风爆发前后具有反相的变化以外 ,副热带高压脊面附近大气经向温度梯度亦具有明显的反相特征。对流层中上层 (2 0 0～ 5 0 0hPa)脊面附近建立的北暖南冷的温度结构 ,能够反映亚洲各季风区夏季风爆发共同的本质特征 ,根据季节转换的热力学基础 ,指出对流层中上层经向温度梯度作为度量季风爆发的指标是合理可行的。文中提出了以副热带高压脊面附近对流层中上层大气经向温度梯度作为表征季节转换的指数 ,给出了确定季节转换开始日期的具体定义以及历年季节转换日期序列 ,同时给出由85 0hPa纬向风和OLR表征的季风爆发日期序列。相关分析表明 ,85 0hPa纬向风只是个区域性指标 ,而南北温度梯度具有一定的普适性     

南海夏季风演变的气候学特征

本文总结南海北部地区夏季风演变的气候学特征，发现南海地区５月第３候对流层高层东风和北风爆发，对流层低层西风第１次跃升，东亚经向季风环流圈开始形成，这可以成为南海地区夏季风爆发的标志。对流层低层西风在６月中旬开始的第２次连续跃升对应江淮地区的梅雨爆发期。类似地，中国大陆夏季对流层低层５月初和６月初有两次爆发性增暖过程，第２次比第１次强烈得多。南海北部地区对流层低层纬向风速、比湿盛夏呈双峰型，纬向风速峰值分别出现在６月第５候和８月第４候，比湿峰值分别出现在６月第６候和８月第５候。比湿突升对应纬向风速突升，但略落后于风速峰值出现的时间。南海北部地区季风爆发前，温度是波动式上升的，南海季风爆发后，温度是波动式下降的。中国大陆东部及南海地区夏季对流层低层比湿分布有３次突变，即４月中旬南海北部比湿突增，并开始出现高比湿中心，而南海南部为最大比湿中心；５月中旬最大比湿中心已从南海南部跳到了南海北部－华南并向江淮流域扩展；６月中旬江淮流域比湿突增并一直维持到８月，同时南海南部高比湿带消失。而５月中旬ＯＬＲ有一次突变，ＯＬＲ低值区爆发性向北扩张，这对应于南海地区夏季风的爆发。而孟加拉湾地区夏季风演变的气候学特征与南海地区有较     

Probing for suitable climatology to estimate the predictability of monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK), India

Inter-annual variability in the onset of monsoon over Kerala (MOK), India, is investigated using daily temperature; mean sea level pressure; winds at 850, 500 and 200 hPa pressure levels; outgoing longwave radiation (OLR); sea surface temperature (SST) and vertically integrated moisture content anomaly with 32 years (1981–2013) observation. The MOK is classified as early, delayed, or normal by considering the mean monsoon onset date over Kerala to be the 1st of June with a standard deviation of 8 days. The objective of the study is to identify the synoptic setup during MOK and comparison with climatology to estimate the predictability of the onset type (early, normal, or delayed) with 5, 10, and 15 days lead time. The study reveals that an enhanced convection observed over the Bay of Bengal during early MOK is found to shift over the Arabian Sea during delayed MOK. An intense high-pressure zone observed over the western south Indian Ocean during early MOK shifts to the east during delayed MOK. Higher tropospheric temperature (TT) over the western Equatorial Ocean during early MOK and lower TT over the Indian subcontinent intensify the land–ocean thermal contrast that leads to early MOK. The sea surface temperature (SST) over the Arabian Sea is observed to be warmer during delayed than early MOK. During early MOK, the source of 850 hPa southwesterly wind shifts to the west equatorial zone while a COL region has been found during delayed MOK at that level. The study further reveals that the wind speed anomaly at the 200-hPa pressure level coincides inversely with the anomaly of tropospheric temperature.     

中南半岛春季土壤湿度异常对亚洲热带夏季风建立和发展的影响

利用WRF区域模式模拟分析了中南半岛地区春季土壤湿度异常对亚洲热带夏季风建立和发展的影响,结果表明:亚洲热带夏季风对中南半岛春季土壤湿度的响应是不对称的,当中南半岛春季土壤湿度偏高时,中南半岛及孟加拉湾周边地区呈现异常东风,伴随降水减少,季风减弱;而中南半岛春季土壤湿度偏低时,孟加拉湾及周边地区西风减弱,降水减少,季风也对应减弱。通过进一步分析物理机制得到,中南半岛春季土壤湿度异常偏高使季风建立初期感热减小,陆表温度明显降低,从而导致海陆温差逐渐降低,使季风减弱;而中南半岛春季土壤湿度异常偏低使整个中南半岛区域蒸发减少,导致地表向上输送的水汽减少,减弱季风环流和降水。此外,通过分析850 h Pa纬向风及对流层中上层经向温度梯度两项季风暴发指数,探讨了中南半岛春季土壤湿度异常对孟加拉湾东部季风暴发时间的影响,结果表明:中南半岛春季土壤湿度偏高时,孟加拉湾东部季风暴发时间大约推迟10天左右,而土壤湿度较低对亚洲热带夏季风暴发时间影响甚微。     

中南半岛对流对南海夏季风建立过程的影响

利用RegCM2模式进行数值试验,得到中南半岛对流对北半球副高带断裂、进而对孟加拉湾对流建立具有重要影响,而孟加拉湾对流建立后激发的Rossby波列又是南海夏季风建立的主要因子之一.进一步分析中南半岛对流、副高带断裂及南海夏季风建立的年际变化,得到中南半岛对流的强弱(活跃的早晚)与副高带在孟加拉湾北部断裂及南海夏季风爆发的早晚有密切关系.它们还与海温异常及纬圈环流的变化相联系:当赤道中东太平洋海温偏暖(冷)时,Walker环流偏弱(强),中南半岛对流偏弱(强),副高带断裂偏晚(早),南海夏季风建立偏迟(早).     

印度季风的年际变化与高原夏季旱涝

根据NCEP／NCAR再分析资料和海表面温度距平资料,分析了西藏高原夏季降水5个多、少雨年春、夏季印度洋850hPa、200hPa合成风场和合成海温场,发现多、少雨年前期与同期印度洋高、低空风场和海温场均存在明显差异,主要表现为高原夏季降水偏多(少)年印度夏季风偏强(弱),在850hPa合成风场上印度半岛维持西(东)风距平,西印度洋—东非沿岸为南(北)风距平,夏季阿拉伯海区和孟加拉湾出现反气旋(气旋)距平环流;200hPa合成风场上印度半岛维持东(西)风距平,南亚高压偏强(弱),索马里沿岸为南(北)风距平。印度夏季风异常与夏季印度洋海温距平的纬向分布型有密切联系。当夏季海温场出现西冷(暖)东暖(冷)的分布型时,季风偏强(弱),高原降水普遍偏多(少)。相关分析指出,索马里赤道海区的风场异常与高原夏季降水的关系最为密切,在此基础上我们定义了一个索马里急流越赤道气流指数,用它识别高原夏季旱涝的能力较之目前普遍使用的印度季风指数有了明显的提高。     

The Interannual Variations of the Summer Monsoon Onset overthe South China Sea

Summary Interannual variations of the summer monsoon onset over the South China Sea (SCS) have been studied using data from over seventeen years (1979–1995) of NMC global analysis and of Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) observed with NOAA polar-orbitting satellites. It was found that the summer monsoon onset in the SCS occurs abruptly with a sudden change of zonal wind direction from easterly to westerly and an exploding development of deep convection in the whole SCS region in the middle of May. Based on the criteria defined in this paper for the SCS summer monsoon onset, the average onset date over the SCS from 1979 to 1995 is around the fourth pentad of May. The airflow and general circulation over the SCS changes dramatically after the onset. The ridge of the subtropical high in the western Pacific in the lower troposphere weakens and retreats eastward from the SCS region with an establishment of westerly winds over the whole region. During the SCS monsoon onset, the most direct impact in the vicinity of the SCS are the equatorial westerlies in the Bay of Bengal through their eastward extension and northward movement. An indirect influence on the SCS onset is also caused by the enhancement of the Somali cross-equatorial flow and the vanishing Arabian High over the sea; the latter may be a signal for the SCS onset. There are quite significant interannual variations in the SCS onset. In the years of a delayed onset, the most profound feature is that the easterly winds stay longer in the SCS than on average. Deep convection activities are suppressed. The direct cause is the abnormal existence of the western Pacific subtropical high over the SCS region. Moreover, compared to the average, the equatorial westerlies in the Bay of Bengal are also weaker in the years of a delayed onset. No significant changes for the cross-equatorial flow at 105 °E are observed for these years. It has also been found that the interannual variations of the SCS onset are closely related with the ENSO events. In the years of a delay, the Walker circulation is weaker, and the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the western Pacific are negative. Received April 14, 1997 Revised July 11, 1997     

亚洲热带气候态夏季风涌传播特征及其对中国降水的影响

基于1979—2020年逐日的NOAA向外长波辐射资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析风场资料,以及全球CMAP再分析降水资料,探讨了气候态亚洲热带夏季风涌的传播过程及与我国夏季相应的降水联系。分析结果表明,主汛期亚洲热带气候态夏季风季节内振荡(CISO)活动是亚洲夏季风活动的主要特征,随时间北传的亚洲热带夏季风CISO称为亚洲热带夏季风涌,主要有南亚夏季风涌和南海夏季风涌。亚洲热带夏季风涌的传播可分为四个阶段。在亚洲热带夏季风涌的发展阶段,印度洋区域低频气旋与对流活跃,孟加拉湾和南海热带区域被低频东风控制,我国大部分地区无降水发生,降水中心位于两广地区。当进入亚洲热带夏季风涌活跃阶段,孟加拉湾和南海热带地区低频气旋和对流活跃,东亚低频“PJ”波列显著,我国降水中心北移到长江以南的附近区域。亚洲热带夏季风涌减弱阶段,孟加拉湾与南海低频气旋消亡,对流减弱,低频西风加强,日本南部附近为低频反气旋控制,我国长江中下游低频南风活跃,降水中心也北移到长江中下游地区,而华南地区已基本无降水,此阶段的大气低频环流场与亚洲热带夏季风涌发展阶段基本相反。进入亚洲热带夏季风涌间歇阶段时,孟加拉湾和南海热带地区低频反气旋活跃,对流不显著,日本南部附近的低频反气旋北移减弱,我国东部基本在低频南风的控制下,降水中心也逐步北移到华北-朝鲜半岛一带,此时的大气低频环流场与亚洲季风涌活跃阶段基本相反。      

不同资料揭示南海夏季风爆发特征的比较

利用全球月平均海温资料，近地面的风、气温、湿度资料，以及海表感热和潜热资料，在综合分析海温和气象要素变化的基础上，确定了7个全球海气相互作用的关键区，并运用相关分析法，着重分析了各关键海区上空气象要素场与海温的时滞相关，以揭示不同关键海区海气相互作用的异同。分析表明：不同海区海气热力相互作用较强，海温与气温比湿有较好的互代性，特别是中东太平洋和南印度洋海区。动力作用对海温的影响各海区差异较大，中西太平洋海区的动力影响可能更关键。在感热潜热与海温的相关中，东西太平洋海区和西北太平洋及南印度洋两季风区都较关键。通过分析各海区海温和各气象要素相邻月的持续相关概率，进一步了解哪些要素、哪些区在哪些时段其异常持续性好，或异常持续性容易发生破坏，这不仅对做预报有一定的参考价值，也为我们讨论海气相互作用的物理机制提供了依据。     

华西秋雨起止与秋冬季节大气环流转换

根据1961—2010年平均的逐候NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、1979—2008年平均的逐候CMAP降水资料以及1961—2010年逐候平均的中国553个台站降水资料,讨论了华西秋雨起止日期与秋冬季大气环流转换特征的关系。结果表明,华西地区降水年变化表现为明显的夏、秋双峰特征,8月4—8日(第44候)为双峰间的低谷,10月8—12日(第57候)以后降水降至年平均以下。由此,将华西秋雨建立和结束日期分别确定为8月9—13日(第45候)和10月8—12日(第57候)。华西秋雨的建立对应于东亚夏季风开始向冬季风转变,其标志性环流调整特征是江南地区的西南风转为东南风。东亚经向海平面气压梯度在8月9—13日(第45候)由南高北低转为南低北高,造成850 hPa江南地区的西南风转为东南风,该东南风与来自孟加拉湾的热带西南季风交汇于华西地区,形成风向和水汽的辐合,使得华西地区的降水在夏峰之后再次增强,华西秋雨由此建立。华西秋雨的结束则对应于孟加拉湾热带西南季风结束和东亚冬季风完全建立,其标志性环流调整特征是孟加拉湾地区的西南风转为东北风。随着东亚纬向海平面气压梯度由北向南依次发生东高西低向东低西高的转变,东亚冬季风也逐步向南推进,9月8—12日(第51候)东北冬季风到达江南地区,10月8—12日(第57候)进一步推进到南海地区,此时来自孟加拉湾的热带西南季风消失,造成华西地区完全受大陆冷高压控制,东亚季风经圈环流也转为冬季型哈得来环流,东亚冬季风完全建立,华西秋雨也随之结束。因此,华西秋雨起止可能与东亚夏季风、南亚夏季风向冬季风的转变时间不同步有关,东亚季风与南亚季风的共同作用使得华西秋雨成为亚洲夏季风在中国大陆上的最后一个雨季。     

CHARACTERISTICS OF ATMOSPHERIC HEATING AND ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION DURING ACTIVE PERIOD OF 500 hPa HIGH OVER THE TIBETAN PLATEAU IN SUMMER*

In correspondence with the establishment of the "upper high and lower high" pressure pattern due to the activities of 500 hPa high over the Tibetan Plateau in summer,a series of changes of the East Asia atmospheric circulation will take place.In this paper,the distributions of divergence and vertical velocity of 500 hPa high,the evolutions of atmospheric heat source,the variations of vorticity and zonal wind at 100 hPa level and vertical meridional cell over the Tibetan Plateau etc.are statistically analyzed.Thus,we can see that the ascending motion and the convective heating over the Tibetan Plateau,the South Asia high and the westerly jet on the north of the Plateau at 100 hPa level are weakned.The northern branch and the southern branch of the easterly jet on the south of the Plateau merge into a single whole and situate on the south of the former northern branch.In the meantime,thermodynamic land-sea discrepancy in South Asia and the convective heating over the Bay of Bengal is enhanced.It will play an important role in the maintenance of the easterly jet and the South Asia monsoon.     

Climatology and Interannual Variability of the Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon

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高分辨率卫星实测资料揭示的近年亚洲热带夏季风爆发进程

利用高分辨率卫星观测资料,从气候态角度分析了亚洲热带夏季风爆发特征。研究表明,亚洲热带夏季风最先在中南半岛西部爆发,随后在整个中南半岛和孟加拉湾东部,然后扩大至孟加拉湾西部和南海。夏季风爆发后,与孟加拉湾和南海相比,中南半岛雨量增强形势不明显。第26—28候（即5月第2候—5月第4候）是亚洲热带夏季风的爆发阶段。整个爆发过程,低层风场的时空演变与对流降水相对应,海表温度场增温较海表风场提早约1候左右;华南地区以锋面降水为主,即副热带季风降水。采用对流降水和海表上空10 m风场分别代表夏季风降水和盛行风向的时空演变特征较常规资料更为准确、精细。     

Interannual variability in the onset of the summer monsoon over the Eastern Bay of Bengal

Summary Climatological characteristics associated with summer monsoon onset over the eastern Bay of Bengal (BOB) are examined in terms of the westerly-easterly boundary surface (WEB). The vertical tilt of the WEB depends on the horizontal meridional temperature gradient (MTG) near the WEB, under the constraint of the thermal wind balance. The switch in the WEB tilt firstly occurs between 90 and 100°E during the first pentad of May. At this time the 850 hPa ridgeline splits over the BOB and heavy rainfall commences over the eastern BOB, indicating the onset of the BOB summer monsoon (BOBSM). The area-averaged MTG (200–500 hPa) is proposed as an index to define the BOBSM onset. A comparison of the onset determined by the MTG, 850 hPa zonal wind, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) shows that the MTG index is the most effective in characterizing the interannual variability of the BOBSM onset. Strong precursor signals are found prior to an anomalous BOBSM onset. Composite results show that early (late) BOBSM onset follows excessive (deficient) rainfall over the western Pacific and anomalous lower tropospheric cyclonic circulation which extends zonally from the northern Indian Ocean into the western Pacific, and strong (weak) equatorial westerly anomalies in the preceding winter and spring. Prior to an early (late) BOBSM onset, significant positive (negative) thickness anomalies exist around the Tibetan Plateau, accompanied by anomalous upper tropospheric anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation. The interannual variations of the BOBSM onset are significantly correlated with anomalous sea surface temperature related to ENSO. These occurs through changes in the Walker circulation and local Hadley circulation, leading to middle and upper tropospheric temperature anomalies over the Asian sector. The strong precursor signals around the Tibetan Plateau may be partly caused by local snow cover anomalies, and an early (late) BOBSM onset is preceded by less (more) snow accumulation over the Tibetan Plateau during the preceding winter.     

孟加拉湾季风爆发对南海季风爆发的影响Ⅰ:个例分析

利用南海季风试验分析场和NCAR向外长波辐射通量(OLR)资料研究了1998年孟加拉湾季风和南海季风爆发期间副热带环流的大尺度和天气尺度特征,探讨了孟加拉湾季风爆发与南海季风爆发之间的物理联系及孟加拉湾季风气旋的对流凝结潜热释放对副热带高压“撤出”南海的影响。结果表明,1998年5月爆发的东亚季风展现出典型的从孟加拉湾地区东传发展到南海地区的过程。随着孟加拉湾季风爆发和对流活动增强、北移,南海北部出现了低层西风和对流活动,领先于副热带高压在南海地区减弱和撤退。结果还显示南海北部地区的对流凝结加热有助于该地区经向温度梯度的反转,在热成风关系的制约下南海上空副热带高压脊面的垂直倾斜由冬季型转向夏季型,季风爆发。     

On the relationship between Arabian Sea warm pool and formation of onset vortex over east-central Arabian Sea

The interannual variability in the formation of mini warm pool (MWP, SST ≥ 30.5°C) and its impact on the formation of onset vortex (OV) over the east-central Arabian Sea (ECAS) are addressed by analyzing the NCEP OIV 2-weekly SST data and NCEP–NCAR reanalysis 850 hPa wind fields from May to June (prior to the onset of monsoon) over the north Indian Ocean for a period of 12 years from 1992 to 2003. Strong interannual variability in the formation and intensification of MWP was observed. Further, the 850 hPa wind fields showed that OV developed into an intense system only during 1994, 1998 and 2001. It formed in the region north of the MWP and on the northern flank of the low-level jet axis, which approached the southern tip of India just prior to the onset of monsoon, similar to the vortex of MONEX-79. The area-averaged zonal kinetic energy (ZKE) over the ECAS (8–15°N, 65–75°E) as well as over the western Arabian Sea (WAS, 5°S–20°N, 50–70°E) showed a minimum value of 5–15 m² s^?2 prior to monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK), whereas a maximum value of 280 m² s^?2 (40–70 m² s^?2) was observed over the ECAS (WAS) during and after MOK. The study further examined the plausible reasons for the occurrence of MWP and OV.     

南海夏季风爆发前后SST异常特征及其与近地面西南气流的关系

利用1982~1999年周平均海表温度资料和逐日近地面风场资料,采用合成分析与相关分析技术,研究了南海和孟加拉湾地区夏季风爆发前后短时间尺度SST变率的异常及其与近地面西南气流的关系。结果表明:季风爆发前2周,南海和孟加拉湾海温的上升除与海洋现象有关外,还与大气的影响因子有一定的关系;季风爆发后1~2周,南海和孟加拉湾海温变率出现较大差异,二者西南部海温降低,而其东海岸及西北部海温却升高;海温变率这种异常分布与西南气流的变化具有较好的相关性,即西南气流的增强导致南海西南部和孟加拉湾西南部海温降低及二者东海岸与西北部海温升高,这是由于离岸的上翻作用及海洋蒸发作用共同所致。     

南海夏季风爆发前后深对流传播的多向性

根据1979～2004年NCEP/NCAR的逐日OLR资料, 对南海夏季风爆发前后南海地区热带深对流的纬向和经向传播特征进行分析, 结果表明, 在南海夏季风爆发前后, 热带深对流的传播方向无论是纬向还是经向在各年都不尽相同, 亦即具有多向性。在纬向上, 南海季风区深对流既可以由孟加拉湾向东传播到南海, 也可以由西太平洋向西传播到南海, 也可在南海地区直接生成。但在此时期, 印度季风区纬向传播相对单一, 主要为向西传播。在经向上, 南海地区的对流活动可以受到来自南半球热带地区和北半球中纬度的共同影响, 但印度季风区主要受热带地区对流的影响。上述结果表明, 南海夏季风爆发期季风区对流活动远比印度季风区复杂, 南海夏季风爆发的深对流云系既可来源于其东西侧, 也可来源于其南北侧, 或是局地发展。作者进一步分析了造成不同深对流来源的机制, 发现低空副高不同的移动路径是造成这一多样性的可能原因, 这可能也是目前对部分年份南海夏季风爆发日期确定存在争议的原因。     

On northward movement of convergence zones along west coast of India in a real-time forecast

The present study addresses the depiction of regional features in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) real-time products associated with the onset of Indian summer monsoon 2006 along the west coast of India. This study attempts to understand some atmospheric dynamical processes that give rise to the northward shifting of the convergence zones in the sub-daily scale leading to the onset over Mumbai. The comparison of analysis and forecast shows that NCEP GFS appears to follow the analysis till 24 h, but deviates thereafter. The most notable feature in analyses is the distinct meridional asymmetries in the vorticity field with respect to the convection center. It is identified that the equivalent barotropic structure of vorticity north of the convection center is the main forcing for the northward movement of convergence zones. The composite meridional–vertical structure of each term in the vorticity budget reveals the importance of convective term in the upper atmosphere (700–200 hPa) and the stretching term in the lower atmosphere (1,000–700 hPa) with a lesser contribution of the tilting term. From an analysis of a simplified vorticity equation by retaining these dominant terms and by comparing the evolution of the diabatic heating, it is concluded that the inaccuracies in the model’s representation of convection led to the weakening of barotropic westerlies in the forecast.