The Potential Predictability of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon in a Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System

The potential predictability of climatological mean circulation and the interannual variation of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) were investigated using hindcast results from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System (IAP DCP),along with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data from the period of 1980-2000.The large-scale characteristics of the SCSSM monthly and seasonal mean low-level circulation have been well reproduced by IAP DCP,especially for the zonal wind at 850 hPa;furthermore,the hindcast variability also agrees quite well with observations.By introducing the South China Sea summer monsoon index,the potential predictability of IAP DCP for the intensity of the SCSSM has been evaluated.IAP DCP showed skill in predicting the interannual variation of SCSSM intensity.The result is highly encouraging;the correlation between the hindcasted and observed SCSSM Index was 0.58,which passes the 95% significance test.The result for the seasonal mean June-July-August SCSSM Index was better than that for the monthly mean,suggesting that seasonal forecasts are more reliable than monthly forecasts.     

2007 年南海夏季风季节内振荡的北传及影响因子

利用2007年全球降水气候计划GPCP(the Global Precipitation Climatology Project)卫星红外窗口导出的全球降水指数GPI(the Global Precipitation Index)的日降水资料及频率-波数分析方法,分析2007年南海夏季风季节内振荡(Intraseasonal Oscillation,ISO)的传播特征,并使用美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)/美国大气研究中心(NCAR)再分析的逐日资料,探讨影响其传播的主要因子.结果表明,南海夏季风ISO有明显的北传趋势,并且明显比南传分量占优.影响南海夏季风ISO北传的主要因子是平均纬向风垂直切变和平均经向风对异常水汽的输送.之所以异常经向风对平均水汽的输送及海-气相可作用的影响在南海地区不重要,而在印度季风区有一定的贡献,是因为平均水汽和纬向风分布在两个地区的差异.     

FEATURES AND COMPARISONS OF THE QUASI-BIENNIAL VARIATIONS IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC MONSOON SUBSYSTEMS

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data, Climate Diagnostics Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) results, and NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (SST), have been utilized in this paper to study the quasi-biennial variations in Asia-Pacific monsoon subsystems and associated SST anomalies (SSTA) and wind anomalies. Four monsoon indices are computed from NCEP/ National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis to represent the South Asian monsoon (SAM), South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM), Western North Pacific monsoon (WNPM) and East Asian monsoon (EAM), respectively. The quasi-biennial periods are very significant in Asia-Pacific monsoons (as discovered by power spectrum analysis), and for SAM and EAM---with moderate effects by El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)---the quasi-biennial periods are the most important factor. For SCSSM and WNPM (once again due to the effects of ENSO), the quasi-biennial periods are of secondary durations. There are obvious interdecadal variations in the quasi-biennial modes of the Asia-Pacific monsoon, so in the negative phase the biennial modes will not be significant or outstanding. The wind anomalies and SSTA associated with the biennial modes are very different in the SAM, WNPM and EAM regions. Since the WNPM and SCSSM are very similar in the biennial modes, they can be combined into one subsystem, called SCS/WNPM.     

南海夏季风爆发早晚的越赤道气流特征

根据国家气候中心提供的南海夏季风爆发期典型偏早(1966、1972、1996、2000、2001年)和偏晚年份(1970、1973、1987、1989、1991年),利用ECMW F再分析1~5月逐日经向风资料,计算5个通道越赤道气流和越赤道乞流总量的距平值;探讨越赤道气流与南海夏季风爆发早晚的关系与特征。为预测南海夏季风爆发早晚提供判据。     

2005年南海夏季风建立偏晚和持续异常偏南的成因分析

通过分析大气环流及其热力结构演变特征,揭示2005年春末夏初南海季风爆发偏迟和持续异常偏南的原因。结果表明,阿拉伯高压偏强,与中高纬度高压脊叠加,导致较高纬度冷空气南下青藏高原南侧及中南半岛一带,抑制了中南半岛附近地区大气增温,不利于南海季风的爆发;索马里急流及赤道西风建立偏晚使中南半岛对流凝结潜热偏弱,是中南半岛一带大气增温偏迟的另一重要原因。6月上中旬,印度半岛北部冷空气势力偏强,大气增温缓慢,使印度季风和亚洲南部季风槽向北推进迟缓,使强劲的西南季风径直向东输送进入南海,有利于南海西南季风长期持续偏南。春末青藏高原积雪偏多,积雪融化抑制了地面增温和大气感热加热,是南海季风爆发偏晚的另一重要原因。6月上中旬,西南季风北上偏迟导致高原对流偏弱,热源偏弱,负反馈作用抑制了西南季风进一步北上,导致西南季风持续异常偏南。     

Aircraft study of aerosol vertical distributions over Beijing and their optical properties

A set of 152 vertical profiles of aerosol number concentration and size distribution with diameter ranging from 0.12 to 3.0 μm observed by the airborne optical spectrometer probe in Beijing, China, between February 2005 and September 2006 is analysed and discussed. The statistic of aerosol number concentration ( N _a) reveals a high aerosol number density in this region with average surface level number concentration ( N ₀) of about 6600 cm⁻³ (0.12–3.0 μm). The average vertical profile of N _a approximately satisfies an exponential decline function with a scale height of 1419 m. The N _a profiles are influenced by the structures of planetary boundary layer (PBL) significantly and two typical types of N _a profile under different conditions of PBL are presented and parametrized in this study. The observations of aerosol size distribution show that, in most cases the aerosol size distributions are not very sensitive to altitude, with effective radii ranging from 0.16 to 0.28 μm. Comparison between aircraft-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-derived AOD shows good agreement. The Mie model calculations suggest that the surface level number concentration, the PBL height and the structure of PBL can influence the AOD significantly.     

中国东部地区冬季AOD分布特征及与冬季风环流的可能联系

利用2000年3月—2017年3月Terra卫星反演的MODIS气溶胶光学厚度(Aerosol Optical Depth,AOD)资料、NCEP的fnl全球业务分析数据、CMAP降水资料、CERES SYN1deg Ed 4月平均资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等,依据中国东部冬季区域平均AOD距平具有显著的年际变化特征,将历年冬季AOD划分为5个不同的污染等级,并探讨了不同污染等级的局地成因及其与冬季风环流的联系。结果表明,中国东部冬季AOD区域平均值与气候要素场有很好的相关关系,即AOD异常偏高(低)时,入射到地面的太阳短波辐射通量减小(增加),地面气温降低(增加),地气系统冷却(加热),地面降水呈现华北与江淮内陆少、江淮东南多(华北与江淮西南部多、江淮地区东部少)的分布特征。中国东部AOD值异常偏高与风速异常偏小有关,且这种负相关关系在华北表现最明显:即AOD异常偏高(低)时,华北地面风速偏小(大),江淮地面风速偏大(小)。个例分析表明,纬向风速异常偏小、东风异常及阿留申低压偏弱是2013年AOD异常偏高的主要原因。     

ON ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF THE GENESIS OF TORNADO IN THE ZHUJIANG RIVER DELTA IN SPRING

Using observational data and the data of disastrous investigation of tornado in Zhujiang River Delta and Guangzhou's sounding from March to May of 1976-1983, the environmental conditions of genesis of tornado are analysed and compared with those of nontornadic local storm.It is found that the favorable conditions of genesis of tornado are lower pressure, unstable stratification and stronger wind in the deep layer of troposphere and higher temperature and humidity in low level, among which, lower pressure, more unstable stratification and layer wind are primary conditions for a severe local storm to possibly develop into a storm with accompanying tornado.The tornado mechanism is not related to vertical wind shear.     

南海夏季风强度潜在可预报性的年代际变化及可能原因

基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,利用信噪比(SNR)方法研究了南海夏季风强度潜在可预报性的年代际变化,结果表明:南海夏季风强度潜在可预报性在20世纪80年代出现了由潜在可预报性偏低位相向偏高位相的年代际转折。进一步的研究发现,南海夏季风强度潜在可预报性和东印度洋—西太平洋(EIOWP)的海表温度(SST)存在明显的正相关。当EIOWP区域SST年际变率较大时,对南海夏季风影响较强,使得南海夏季风的外部信号增强,从而提高了潜在可预报性;当EIOWP区域SST年际变率较小时,对南海夏季风影响较弱,南海夏季风的外部信号进而减弱,潜在可预报性降低。     

大气边界层高度确定及应用研究进展

大气边界层高度是表征边界层特征的重要参量,影响边界层内水热、物质、能量的垂直分布,也是数值模拟、环境评估中的重要参数。从湍流运动、热力作用、动力作用以及物质分布等多视角总结了大气边界层高度的定义及确定方法,回顾了采用直接观测手段和遥感手段确定大气边界层高度的不同方法,对比了大气边界层高度不同获取手段的优缺点,梳理了大气边界层高度参数化方案,探讨了大气边界层高度确定中存在的问题,并提出未来相关研究和应用可能突破方向。      

A barotropic planetary boundary layer

The temperature and wind profiles in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) are investigated. Assuming stationary and homogeneous conditions, the turbulent state in the PBL is uniquely determined by the external Rossby number and the stratification parameters. In this study, a simple two-layer barotropic model is proposed. It consists of a surface (SL) and overlying Ekman-type layer. The system of dynamic and heat transfer equations is closed usingK theory. In the SL, the turbulent exchange coefficient is consistent with the results of similarity theory while in the Ekman layer, it is constant. Analytical solutions for the wind and temperature profiles in the PBL are obtained. The SL and thermal PBL heights are properly chosen functions of the stratification so that from the solutions for wind and temperature, the PBL resistance laws can be easily deduced. The internal PBL characteristics necessary for the calculation (friction velocity, angle between surface and geostrophic winds and internal stratification parameter) are presented in terms of the external parameters. Favorable agreement with experimental data and model results is demonstrated. The simplicity of the model allows it to be incorporated in large-scale weather prediction models as well as in the solution of various other meteorological problems.     

Research Progress on Estimation of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height

Atmospheric boundary layer height(ABLH) is an important parameter used to depict characteristics of the planetary boundary layer(PBL) in the lower troposphere. The ABLH is strongly associated with the vertical distributions of heat, mass, and energy in the PBL, and it is a key quantity in numerical simulation of the PBL and plays an essential role in atmospheric environmental assessment. In this paper, various definitions and methods for deriving and estimating the ABLH are summarized, from the perspectives of turbulent motion, PBL dynamics and thermodynamics, and distributions of various substances in the PBL. Different methods for determining the ABLH by means of direct observation and remote sensing retrieval are reviewed, and comparisons of the advantages and disadvantages of these methods are presented. The paper also summarizes the ABLH parameterization schemes, discusses current problems in the estimation of ABLH, and finally points out the directions for possible future breakthroughs in the ABLHrelated research and application.     

基于MODIS资料内蒙古气溶胶光学厚度反演分析

文章利用国家卫星气象中心引进的以暗像元特性为基础的气溶胶光学厚度反演软件,对内蒙古地区2009年12月至2010年12月的EOS/MODIS气象卫星资料进行反演,计算0.55μm气溶胶光学厚度,并提取119个气象台站气溶胶光学厚度值按盟市进行月平均、年平均值统计分析,寻找气溶胶光学厚度的空间分布特征和时间变化规律。结果表明:(1)内蒙古地区气溶胶光学厚度存在非常明显的空间分布特征,最高值区主要集中在中部和西部地区,东部的大部地区基本没有最高值出现。(2)内蒙古地区气溶胶光学厚度存在明显的时间变化规律。从1月份逐渐增加,到6月和7月份达到全年最大值,再逐渐降低趋势;春季和夏季最大,而秋季和冬季最小,夏季>春季>秋季>冬季。     

Land-Surface Heterogeneity Effects in the Planetary Boundary Layer

We investigate the cumulative added value of assimilating temperature, moisture, and wind observations in the three-dimensional non-hydrostatic Fifth-Generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model MM5 and use these forecasts to analyze the relationship between surface forcing and planetary boundary-layer (PBL) depth. A data assimilation methodology focused on the surface and the PBL, previously tested in a one-dimensional version of MM5, is applied to 29 May, 6 June, and 7 June 2002 during the International $\hbox {H}_{2}\hbox {O}$ Project over the Southern Great Plains. Model-predicted PBL depth is evaluated against PBL depth diagnosed from data across 4,800 km of airborne lidar data (flight tracks 100–300 km long). The forecast with data assimilation verifies better against observations and is thus used to investigate the environmental conditions that govern PBL depth. The spatial structure in PBL depth is found to be most affected by spatial variations in surface buoyancy flux and capping inversion strength. The spatial scales of surface flux forcing reflected in the PBL depth are found through Fourier analysis and multiresolution decomposition. Correlations are ${<}0.50$ at scales of 64 km or less and increase at larger scales for 29 May and 6 June, but on 7 June low correlations are found at all scales, possibly due to greater within-PBL wind speeds, a stronger capping inversion on this day, and clouds. The results suggest a minimum scale, a function of wind speed, below which heterogeneity in surface buoyancy fluxes is not reflected directly in PBL depth.     

大气气溶胶光学厚度遥感研究概况

大气气溶胶是影响气候变化的重要因子之一,利用遥感手段不仅可以获得气溶胶的分布信息,也可以得到相关的气溶胶光学特性参数。本文阐述了国内外气溶胶遥感的发展动态,介绍了气溶胶遥感的基本情况及气溶胶光学厚度反演的几种方法,提出了存在的问题并对今后的研究进行了展望。     

Retrieval of the single scattering albedo of Asian dust mixed with pollutants using lidar observations

The vertical distribution of single scattering albedos （SSAs） of Asian dust mixed with pollutants was derived using the multi-wavelength Raman lidar observation system at Gwangju （35.10°N,126.53°E）.Vertical profiles of both backscatter and extinction coefficients for dust and non-dust aerosols were extracted from a mixed Asian dust plume using the depolarization ratio from lidar observations.Vertical profiles of backscatter and extinction coefficients of non-dust particles were input into an inversion algorithm to retrieve the SSAs of non-dust aerosols.Atmospheric aerosol layers at different heights had different light-absorbing characteristics.The SSAs of non-dust particles at each height varied with aerosol type,which was either urban/industrial pollutants from China transported over long distances at high altitude,or regional/local pollutants from the Korean peninsula.Taking advantage of independent profiles of SSAs of non-dust particles,vertical profiles of SSAs of Asian dust mixed with pollutants were estimated for the first time,with a new approach suggested in this study using an empirical determination of the SSA of pure dust.The SSAs of the Asian dust-pollutants mixture within the planetary boundary layer （PBL） were in the range 0.88-0.91,while the values above the PBL were in the range 0.76-0.87,with a very low mean value of 0.76 ± 0.05.The total mixed dust plume SSAs in each aerosol layer were integrated over height for comparison with results from the Aerosol Robotics Network （AERONET） measurements.Values of SSA retrieved from lidar observations of 0.92 ± 0.01 were in good agreement with the results from AERONET measurements.     

Optical Properties and Source Analysis of Aerosols over a Desert Area in Dunhuang,Northwest China

Aerosol observational data for 2012 obtained from Dunhuang Station of CARE-China(Campaign on Atmospheric Aerosol Research Network of China) were analyzed to achieve in-depth knowledge of aerosol optical properties over Dunhuang region. The results showed that the annual average aerosol optical depth(AOD) at 500 nm was 0.32 ± 0.06, and the ?ngstr?m exponent(α) was 0.73 ± 0.27. Aerosol optical properties revealed significant seasonal characteristics. Frequent sandstorms in MAM(March–April–May) resulted in the seasonal maximum AOD, 0.41 ± 0.04, and a relatively smaller αvalue, 0.44 ± 0.04. The tourism seasons, JJA(June–July–August) and SON(September–October–November) coincide with serious emissions of small anthropogenic aerosols. While in DJF(December–January–February), the composition of the atmosphere was a mixture of dust particles and polluted aerosols released by domestic heating; the average AOD and αwere 0.29 ± 0.02 and 0.66 ± 0.17, respectively. Different air masses exhibited different degrees of influence on the aerosol concentration over Dunhuang in different seasons. During MAM, ranges of AOD(0.11–1.18) and α(0.06–0.82) were the largest under the dust influence of northwest-short-distance air mass in the four trajectories. Urban aerosols transported by northwest-short-distance air mass accounted for a very large proportion in JJA and the mixed aerosols observed in SON were mainly conveyed by air masses from the west. In DJF, the similar ranges of AOD and α under the three air mass demonstrated the analogous diffusion effects on regional pollutants over Dunhuang.     

近年来大气遥感研究进展

本文着重介绍中国科学院大气物理研究所2003年以来在大气遥感研究方面的主要进展与成果,内容包括:(1)遥感技术与设备的发展;(2)大气气溶胶遥感;(3)云遥感;(4)大气微量气体遥感;(5)反演方法发展;(6)大气辐射传输算法研究。气溶胶的光学特性遥感研究是近年来热点之一,本文简要论述在气溶胶光学特性地基和卫星遥感反演算法、中国大气气溶胶光学特性时空分布特性、气溶胶辐射强迫遥感研究等方面所取得的成果。     

Grid-cell Aerosol Direct Shortwave Radiative Forcing Calculated Using the SBDART Model with MODIS and AERONET Observations:An Application in Winter and Summer in Eastern China

Taking winter and summer in eastern China as an example application, a grid-cell method of aerosol direct radiative forcing(ADRF) calculation is examined using the Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer(SBDART) model with inputs from MODIS and AERONET observations and reanalysis data. Results show that there are significant seasonal and regional differences in climatological mean aerosol optical parameters and ADRF. Higher aerosol optical depth(AOD)occurs in summer and two prominent high aerosol loading centers are observed. Higher single scattering albedo(SSA) in summer is likely associated with the weak absorbing secondary aerosols. SSA is higher in North China during summer but higher in South China during winter. Aerosols induce negative forcing at the top of the atmosphere(TOA) and surface during both winter and summer, which may be responsible for the decrease in temperature and the increase in relative humidity.Values of ADRF at the surface are four times stronger than those at the TOA. Both AOD and ADRF present strong interannual variations; however, their amplitudes are larger in summer. Moreover, patterns and trends of ADRF do not always correspond well to those of AOD. Differences in the spatial distributions of ADRF between strong and weak monsoon years are captured effectively. Generally, the present results justify that to calculate grid-cell ADRF at a large scale using the SBDART model with observational aerosol optical properties and reanalysis data is an effective approach.