区域气候变化对西藏扎布耶、当雄错、班戈湖变化的影响（英文）

The lake hydrological and meteorological data of the Tibetan Plateau are not rich. This research reports the observed climatic data and measured water levels of saline lakes from the local meteorological stations in the Zabuye salt lake, the Dangqiong Co salt lake and the Bankog Co salt lake in recent two decades. Combining with satellite remote sensing maps, we have analyzed the changes of the water level of these three lakes in recent years and discussed the origins of the changes induced by the meteorological factors. The results show that the annual mean temperature and the water level reflect a general ascending trend in these three lakes during the observation period. The rising rates of the annual mean temperature were 0.08℃/yr during 1991–2014 and 0.07℃/yr during 2004–2014, and of the water level, were 0.032 m/yr and 0.24 m/yr, respectively. Analysis of changes of the meteorological factors shows the main cause for the increase of lake water quantity are the reduced lake evaporation and the increased precipitation in the lake basins by the rise of average temperature. Seasonal variation of lake water level is powered largely by the supply of lake water types and the seasonal change of regional climate.     

藏南羊卓雍错流域水化学状况及其形成机制（英文）

The hydrochemistry of alpine lakes reflects water characteristic and its response to climatic change. Over 300 water samples had been collected from 52 sites of 5 lakes and 7 inflowing rivers in the Yamzhog Yumco Basin, South Tibet, during 2009–2014, basing which the hydrochemical regime and its mechanism were analyzed along with the adoption of hydrological investigations in 1979 and 1984 as well. Results revealed that the waters were hard with weak alkalinity for the Yamzhog Yumco Basin. Most of them were fresh, and the rest were slightly saline. The hydrochemical types of 5 lakes(i.e., Lake Yamzhog Yum Co, Puma Yum Co, Bajiu Co, Kongmu Co, and Chen Co) were SO_4~(2–)–HCO_3~––Mg~(2+)–Na~+, HCO_3~–– SO2–2+4–Mg~(2+)–Ca, SO_4~(2–)–Mg~(2+)–Na~+, SO_4~(2–)–HCO_3~––Ca~(2+), and SO_4~(2–)–Na~+–Mg~(2+)–Ca~(2+), respectively. As for rivers, HCO_3~– and SO_4~(2–) were the major anions, and Ca~(2+) was the dominant cation. Lake Yamzhog Yum Co, the largest lake in the basin, exhibited remarkable spatial variations in hydrochemistry at its surface but irregular changes with depth. The weathering of evaporates and carbonates, together with evaporation and crystallization, were the major mechanisms controlling the hydrochemistry of waters in the Yamzhog Yumco Basin. Global warming also had significant impacts on hydrochemical variations.     

1976–2010年波兰湖泊水位变化（英文）

The paper presents the analysis of tendencies in water level changes in 32 lakes in Poland during 1976–2010.Series of monthly,seasonal,and annual precipitation and air temperature for 9 meteorological stations were also studied.The trend analysis for all of the studied series of water levels in lakes showed high spatial and temporal variability.Series of annual water levels in the case of 6 lakes showed statistically significant increasing tendencies,and in 7 lakes,significant decreasing trends.Series of annual amplitudes in the majority of lakes(22) showed a decreasing trend,but they were statistically significant only in three cases.The tendencies for air temperature fluctuations are more statistically significant than precipitation.The key role in determining water level changes is played by local factors,particularly including human economic activity,obscuring the effect of natural factors on water level changes.The paper describes cases of changes in water levels in lakes under anthropopressure related to among others: agricultural irrigations,hydropower infrastructure,water transfers,navigation,or mining.     

1970–2011年可可西里地区湖泊面积变化的时空特征(英文)

As one of the areas with numerous lakes on the Tibetan Plateau, the Hoh Xil region plays an extremely important role in the fragile plateau eco-environment. Based on topographic maps in the 1970 s and Landsat TM/ETM+ remote sensing images in the 1990 s and the period from 2000 to 2011, the data of 83 lakes with an area above 10 km2 each were obtained by digitization method and artificial visual interpretation technology, and the causes for lake variations were also analyzed. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows.(1) From the 1970 s to 2011, the lakes in the Hoh Xil region firstly shrank and then expanded. In particular, the area of lakes generally decreased during the 1970s–1990s. Then the lakes expanded from the 1990 s to 2000 and the area was slightly higher than that in the 1970 s. The area of lakes dramatically increased after 2000.(2) From 2000 to 2011, the lakes with different area ranks in the Hoh Xil region showed an overall expansion trend. Meanwhile, some regional differences were also discovered. Most of the lakes expanded and were widely distributed in the northern, central and western parts of the region. Some lakes were merged together or overflowed due to their rapid expansion. A small number of lakes with the trend of area decrease or strong fluctuation were scattered in the central and southern parts of the study area. And their variations were related to their own supply conditions or hydraulic connection with the downstream lakes or rivers.(3) The increase in precipitation was the dominant factor resulting in the expansion of lakes in the Hoh Xil region. The secondary factor was the increase in meltwater from glaciers and frozen soil due to climate warming.     

Discussion on possibilities of taking ground ice in permafrost as water sources on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during climate warming

Large amounts of ground ice are born with permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Degradation of permafrost resulted from the climate warming will inevitably lead to melting of ground ice.The water released from the melting ground ice enters hydrologic cycles at various levels,and changes regional hydrologic regimes to various degrees.Due to difficulties in monitoring the perma-frost-degradation-release-water process,direct and reliable evidence is few.The accumulative effect of releasing water,however,is remarkable in the macro-scale hydrologic process.On the basis of the monitoring results of water-levels changes in some lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,and combined with the previous results of the hydrologic changing trends at the regional scale,the authors preliminarily discussed the possibilities of the degrading permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as a potential water source during climate warming.     

Lake Area Changes and the main causes in the hinterland of Badain Jaran Desert during 1973–2010, China

Lake area information in the Badain Jaran Desert in 1973, 1990, 2000, and 2010 was obtained by visual interpretation and water index analysis of remote sensing images, based on the spatial and temporal characteristics of lake area changes during 37 years. Results indicated that the number of lakes declined from 94 to 82 and the total surface area was reduced by 3.69 km² during 1973–2010. The desert lake area reduced by different degrees in different periods, but this occurred most rapidly during 1973–1990. According to the statistics of lake area changes, lake area decreases mainly occurred in the lakes with areas less than 0.2 km², while the areas of lakes greater than 0.9 km² only fluctuated. The changes of lake areas were probably due to changes in the quantity of underground water supplies rather than the effects of local climate change or human factors.     

Analysis on mechanisms of anomalous variations of tropopause pressure over the Tibetan Plateau during summer in Northern Hemisphere

Using the monthly mean data from NCEP–NCAR reanalysis, through building tropopause pressure index, we investigated the mechanisms of anomalous variations of tropopause pressure over the Tibetan Plateau during summer in Northern Hemisphere. For comparative analysis we selected representative years of 1992 and 1998 to study, and they were respectively the highest and the lowest year of tropopause pressure anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau. The results are summarized as follows: (1) Over the Tibetan Plateau, the variations of tropopause pressure are well correlated respectively with anomalous temperature and geopotential height in both troposphere and stratosphere. Besides, the anomalous tropopause pressure has also close relation with anomalous surface temperature in the Tibetan Plateau. In 1992, the surface temperature was anomalously low, correspondingly, the tropopause pressure over the Tibetan Plateau was anomalously high; but in 1998, the opposite was the case. (2) Over the Tibetan Plateau, the correlation of tropopause pressure and OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) is found to be positive. Furthermore, by further diagnosing the circulation fields between 850 hPa and 200 hPa levels and the whole troposphere vapour field, we found out that the anomalously high tropopause pressure in 1992 corresponded to the anticyclonic divergence of low level wind fields and the cyclonic convergence of high level wind fields, and coupled with divergence of the whole troposphere vapour fields along with the South Asian High weakened at the same time. While in 1998, the case was opposite to that in 1992. These facts indicated that the anomalous convection resulted in the significant difference of tropopause pressure in 1992 and 1998 over the Tibetan Plateau. (3) The vertically integrated heat budget anomalies were responsible for explaining tropopause pressure anomalies in 1992 and 1998 over the Tibetan Plateau.     

Multi-scale temperature variations and their regional differences in China during the Medieval Climate Anomaly

The Medieval Climate Anomaly(MCA, AD950–1250) is the most recent warm period lasting for several hundred years and is regarded as a reference scenario when studying the impact of and adaptation to global and regional warming. In this study, we investigated the characteristics of temperature variations on decadal–centennial scales during the MCA for four regions(Northeast, Northwest, Central-east, and Tibetan Plateau) in China, based on high-resolution temperature reconstructions and related warm–cold records from historical documents. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition method is used to analyze the time series. The results showed that for China as a whole, the longest warm period during the last 2000 years occurred in the 10 th–13 th centuries, although there were multi-decadal cold intervals in the middle to late 12 th century. However, in the beginning and ending decades, warm peaks and phases on the decadal scale of the MCA for different regions were not consistent with each other. On the inter-decadal scale, regional temperature variations were similar from 950 to 1130; moreover, their amplitudes became smaller, and the phases did not agree well from 1130 to 1250. On the multi-decadal to centennial scale, all four regions began to warm in the early 10 th century and experienced two cold intervals during the MCA. However, the Northwest and Central-east China were in step with each other while the warm periods in the Northeast China and Tibetan Plateau ended about 40-50 years earlier. On the multi-centennial scale, the mean temperature difference between the MCA and Little Ice Age was significant in Northeast and Central-east China but not in the Northwest China and Tibetan Plateau. Compared to the mean temperature of the 20 th century, a comparable warmth in the MCA was found in the Central-east China, but there was a little cooling in Northeast China; meanwhile, there were significantly lower temperatures in Northwest China and Tibetan Plateau.     

Climatic changes have led to significant expansion of endorheic lakes in Xizang (Tibet) since 1995

Robust climate warming has led to significant expansion of lakes in the central Tibetan Plateau. Using remote sensing data, our quantitative analysis indicates that Siling Co, a saline lake in a characteristic endorheic basin in the central region of the Plateau, has expanded more than 600 km² in area since 1976. Particularly since 1995, the lake has significantly expanded in response to increasing precipitation, decreasing water surface evaporation caused by weaker winds and less solar radiation, and increased glacier meltwater draining to the lake. Glacier–lake interactions are important in governing lake expansion and are also part of a feedback loop that influences the local climate. Worsening climatic conditions (decreased precipitation and increased temperatures) that could have caused the lake to shrink during 1976–1994 were offset by increasing glacier meltwater feeding the lake, which made the lake nearly stable. We demonstrate that this pattern changed during 1995–2009, when glacier meltwater actually decreased but participation runoff increased and evaporation decreased, leading to expansion of the lake. If climatic conditions became suitable for further lake development, which would be indicated by expansion in lake area, glacier meltwater could be saved in a stable reservoir.     

基于土壤侵蚀控制度的黄土高原水土流失治理潜力研究（英文）

The capacity of soil and water conservation measures, defined as the maximum quantity of suitable soil and water conservation measures contained in a region, were determined for the Loess Plateau based on zones suitable for establishing terraced fields, forestland and grassland with the support of geographic information system(GIS) software. The minimum possible soil erosion modulus and actual soil erosion modulus in 2010 were calculated using the revised universal soil loss equation(RUSLE), and the ratio of the minimum possible soil erosion modulus under the capacity of soil and water conservation measures to the actual soil erosion modulus was defined as the soil erosion control degree. The control potential of soil erosion and water loss in the Loess Plateau was studied using this concept. Results showed that the actual soil erosion modulus was 3355 t·km~(–2)·a~(–1), the minimum possible soil erosion modulus was 1921 t·km~(–2)·a~(–1), and the soil erosion control degree was 0.57(medium level) in the Loess Plateau in 2010. In terms of zoning, the control degree was relatively high in the river valley-plain area, soil-rocky mountainous area, and windy-sandy area, but relatively low in the soil-rocky hilly-forested area, hilly-gully area and plateau-gully area. The rate of erosion areas with a soil erosion modulus of less than 1000 t·km~(–2)·a~(–1) increased from 50.48% to 57.71%, forest and grass coverage rose from 56.74% to 69.15%, rate of terraced fields increased from 4.36% to 19.03%, and per capita grain available rose from 418 kg·a~(–1) to 459 kg·a~(–1) under the capacity of soil and water conservation measures compared with actual conditions. These research results are of some guiding significance for soil and water loss control in the Loess Plateau.     

Lake Area Changes and the main causes in the hinterland of Badain Jaran Desert during 1973–2010,China

Lake area information in the Badain Jaran Desert in 1973, 1990, 2000, and 2010 was obtained by visual interpretation and water index analysis of remote sensing images, based on the spatial and temporal characteristics of lake area changes during 37 years. Results indicated that the nttmber of lakes declined from 94 to 82 and the total surface area was reduced by 3.69 km2 during 1973-2010. The desert lake area reduced by different degrees in different periods, but this occurred most rapidly during 1973-1990. According to the statistics of lake area changes, lake area decreases mainly occurred in the lakes with areas less than 0.2 km2, while the areas of lakes greater than 0.9 km2 only fluctuated. The changes of lake areas were probably due to changes in the quantity of underground water supplies rather than the effects of local climate change or human factors.     

Cenozoic Ephedraceae adaptation to global cooling in northwestern China

Ephedraceae has been applied largely as a drought indicator to reconstruct Cenozoic paleoenvironment and paleoclimate. However, temperature indication of Ephedraceae has been largely ignored. Here, we provide a record of Ephedraceae percentage spanning from the Early Eocene to Middle Miocene (52–17 Myr B.P.) in the Xining Basin, northeastern Tibetan Plateau. This record is comparable to a compiled Cenozoic Ephedraceae record from five other basins in northwestern China. Both records show Ephedraceae percentages were high during the Early Eocene, and decreased gradually from the Middle Eocene to Late Oligocene, then maintained a stable level since the Late Oligocene. By comparing these two Ephedraceae records with the marine oxygen isotope record, we discuss the variation of Ephedraceae percentage in Middle Cenozoic in response to global temperature change. Ephedraceae percentage was high in the Early Paleogene, associated with subtropical or tropical vegetation types in a global greenhouse climate, and decreased in Early Oligocene, associated with global cooling, suggesting that Ephedraceae is warm-tolerant during the Paleogene. The low Ephedraceae percentages in the Late Oligocene and Miocene were uncoupled with global warming, which may imply that Ephedraceae began to adapt to a eurythermic climate in the inland desert environment of western China. Such adaptation may be a response to the high topography of the Tibetan Plateau.     

The coupled characteristics of the physical process between sea ice of two poles and Tibetan land surface

In order to discuss the characteristics of sea ice change of strong signal area on Antarctic and Arctic and the correlation between the thermal state on the land surface of Tibetan Plateau and the atmosphere circulation of North Hemisphere or the climate changes in China, and to study the feedback mechanism among “three-pole” factors, the earlier stage “three-pole” strong signal characteristics by using statistic methods such as teleconnection,which affect the regional climate changes in China and East Asia. The cross-correlation feature and coupling effect between ice caps of North and South pole and water-thermal state on Tibetan Plateau surface are discussed as well. The contribution of three-pole's earlier stage factors to China's summer climate change and the influence of its dynamic structure are compared here. The formation mechanisms of global climate change and regional climate change of China are investigated from the aspect of qualitative correlation mode of global sea-land-air-ice.     

Lake evolution and its implication for environmental changes in China during 1950–2000

Lakes in China have undergone considerable environmental changes during the past 50 years, e.g. lake level, water area changes, as did in the past several thousands years. The enhanced human activities, such as land reclamation, application of chemical fertilizer, land use and cover, irrigation and industrialization in the catchment etc., have played an important role on the recent decades＇ changes of these lakes, although constrained to a great extent by the natural impact. Comparative study on variations of lake volume （water level, depth and area） in the eastern and western lake regions of China during 1950-2000 indicated that, lake volume in the eastern region had approximately undergone a two-stage change, i.e. a dramatic decrease from the 1950s to 1970s, and a continuous increase between the 1980s and 1990s; while, in the western region, lake volume had been decreasing nearly all the time. Further studies on some typical lakes concluded that, climatic change was a primary factor for the variations of lake volume during the past 50 years, although human activities showed important effect.     

Sea level change and environmental evolution of coastal lakes in Vestfold Hills, Antarctica

Ecological and palaeoecological studies were carried out in a series of lakes in the Vestfold Hills (68°38′S, 78°06′E) on eastern Antarctic continent. Dynamics types of the lakes in environmental geomorphology and physic chemistry, as well as features of biological community structures in different lakes were analyzed. Marine macro and micro fossils collected from the terraces and beaches surrounding these lakes and determined in 14 C radiocarbon ages to be the Late Pleistocene, were used as evidences to show the evolutionary processes of the lakes after sea level changes and transgressions since 18000 a B.P.. Basic modals of evolution for the lakes given in the paper could be regarded as not only explaining the history of environmental and ecological changes in VH lakes, and also reflecting of local environmental evolution in Antarctic region and global climate changes from past to present time.     

1990年以来中国小麦农业气象灾害时空变化特征(英文)

Agro-meteorological disasters(AMD) have become more frequent with climate warming. In this study, the temporal and spatial changes in the occurrence frequency of major meteorological disasters on wheat production were firstly explored by analyzing the observed records at national agro-meteorological stations(AMS) of China from 1991 to 2009. Furthermore, impact of climate change on AMD was discussed by comparing the warmer decade(2000–2009) with another decade(1991–2000). It was found that drought was the most frequent disaster during the last two decades, with a highest proportion of 79%. And the frequency of AMD increased significantly with climate change. Specifically, the main disasters occurred more frequently in the reproductive period than in the vegetative period. Besides, the spatial changes in the AMD frequency were characterized by region-specific. For example, the wheat cultivation areas located on the Loess Plateau and the middle-lower reaches of the Yellow River suffered mainly from drought. All these results were strongly linked to climate change in China. Therefore, sound adaptation options should be taken based on the latest changes of AMD under global warming to reduce agricultural damages.     

1971-2000年青藏高原气候变化趋势

Trends of annual and monthly temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspi- ration and aridity index were analyzed to understand climate change during the period 1971–2000 over the Tibetan Plateau which is one of the most special regions sensitive to global climate change. FAO56–Penmen–Monteith model was modified to calculate potential evapotranspiration which integrated many climatic elements including maximum and mini- mum temperatures, solar radiation, relative humidity and wind speed. Results indicate gen- erally warming trends of the annual averaged and monthly temperatures, increasing trends of precipitation except in April and September, decreasing trends of annual and monthly poten- tial evapotranspiration, and increasing aridity index except in September. It is not the isolated climatic elements that are important to moisture conditions, but their integrated and simulta- neous effect. Moreover, potential evapotranspiration often changes the effect of precipitation on moisture conditions. The climate trends suggest an important warm and humid tendency averaged over the southern plateau in annual period and in August. Moisture conditions would probably get drier at large area in the headwater region of the three rivers in annual average and months from April to November, and the northeast of the plateau from July to September. Complicated climatic trends over the Tibetan Plateau reveal that climatic factors have nonlinear relationships, and resulte in much uncertainty together with the scarcity of observation data. The results would enhance our understanding of the potential impact of climate change on environment in the Tibetan Plateau. Further research of the sensitivity and attribution of climate change to moisture conditions on the plateau is necessary.     

1990–2010年中国土地覆被变化引起反照率改变的辐射强迫(英文)

Land cover change affects surface radiation budget and energy balance by changing surface albedo and further impacts the regional and global climate. In this article, high spatial and temporal resolution satellite products were used to analyze the driving mechanism for surface albedo change caused by land cover change during 1990–2010. In addition, the annual-scale radiative forcing caused by surface albedo changes in China's 50 ecological regions were calculated to reveal the biophysical mechanisms of land cover change affecting climate change at regional scale. Our results showed that the national land cover changes were mainly caused by land reclamation, grassland desertification and urbanization in past 20 years, which were almost induced by anthropogenic activities. Grassland and forest area decreased by 0.60% and 0.11%, respectively. The area of urban and farmland increased by 0.60% and 0.19%, respectively. The mean radiative forcing caused by land cover changes during 1990–2010 was 0.062 W/m2 in China, indicating a warming climate effect. However, spatial heterogeneity of radiative forcing was huge among different ecological regions. Farmland conversing to urban construction land, the main type of land cover change for the urban and suburban agricultural ecological region in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region, caused an albedo reduction by 0.00456 and a maximum positive radiative forcing of 0.863 W/m2, which was presented as warming climate effects. Grassland and forest conversing to farmland, the main type of land cover change for the temperate humid agricultural and wetland ecological region in Sanjiang Plain, caused an albedo increase by 0.00152 and a maximum negative radiative forcing of 0.184 W/m2, implying cooling climate effects.     

长江源区地表水资源对气候变化的响应及趋势预测(英文)

In this paper,variations of surface water flow and its climatic causes in China are analyzed using hydrological and meteorological observational data,as well as the impact data set(version 2.0) published by the National Climate Center in November 2009.The results indicate that surface water resources showed an increasing trend in the source region of the Yangtze River over the past 51 years,especially after 2004.The trend was very clearly shown,and there were quasi-periods of 9 years and 22 years,where the Tibetan Plateau heating field enhanced the effect,and the plateau monsoon entered a strong period.Precipitation notably increased,and glacier melt water increased due to climate change,all of which are the main climatic causes for increases in water resources in the source region.Based on global climate model prediction,in the SRESA1B climate change scenarios,water resources are likely to increase in this region for the next 20 years.     

Deformation monitoring and analysis at two frost mounds during freeze–thaw cycles along the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor

This paper presents various deformation-monitoring technologies employed to monitor the frost heave and thaw settlement of two mounds along the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor(QTEC), China. The QTEC is known as a critical infrastructure and passage connecting inland China and the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau(QTP). Three technologies—global navigation satellite system(GNSS), terrestrial laser scanning(TLS), and unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)—were used to estimate the freeze/thaw–induced 3D surface deformation of two frost mounds. Our results showed that (1) the two frost mounds exhibited mainly thaw settlement in thawing periods and frost heave in the freezing period, but frost heave dominated after repeated freeze–thaw cycles;(2) different zones of the mounds showed different deformation characteristics;(3) active-layer thickness(ALT) and elevation changes were highly correlated during thaw periods;(4) integrated 3D-measurement technologies can achieve a better understanding and assessment of hazards in the permafrost area.