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通过数据同化方法合理地将实时水文观测数据融入到洪水预报模型中,可提高洪水预报模型的实时性和精确度。选取沿程断面流量、水位和糙率系数作为代表水流状态的基本粒子,以监测断面实测水位数据作为观测信息,建立了基于粒子滤波数据同化算法的河道洪水实时概率预报模型。模型应用于黄河中下游河道洪水预报计算的结果表明,采用粒子滤波方法同化观测水位后,不仅可以直接校正水位,同时也可以有效地校正流量和糙率,为未来时刻模型预报计算提供更准确的水流初始条件和糙率取值区间,进而有效地提高模型预报结果的精度,给出合理的概率预报区间。不同预报期的预报结果表明,随着预报期的增长,同化效果减弱,模型预报结果的精度会有所降低,水位概率预报结果受粒子间糙率不同的影响不确定性增加,而流量概率预报结果受给定模型边界条件的影响不确定性降低。所提出模型可以有效同化真实水位观测数据,适合应用于实际的洪水预报工作中。 相似文献
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多方案权重因子法在作业预报中的应用杨湘黔(衡阳水文水资源勘测局)一个预报断面的洪水波运动,一般受多个预报因素影响,实测洪峰水位(流量)系众多洪水要素综合影响的结果。为了综合几个洪水要素影响,以往也曾编制过2至3个参数的相关预报图,进行了合轴转图拟合。... 相似文献
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采用相关分析法,在区域降水、观测断面流量(或水位)因子中识别出影响预报断面径流过程的主要变量,在多个观测断面的数据均为流量情况下,采用基于时延组合的合成流量为影响预报断面径流过程的变量,采用自相关分析法,识别出影响预报断面径流过程的前期流量(或水位),以这些变量为BP神经网络模型的输入,以预报断面的流量(或水位)为模型的输出,在BP神经网络隐层节点数自动优选的基础上,构建了基于BP神经网络的洪水预报模型。将模型载入中国洪水预报系统中,应用结果表明:模型在历史洪水训练样本具有一定代表性的情况下,可获得较高的预报精度。 相似文献
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洮河是黄河上游一条重要河流。岷县水文站是洮河中游控制站,担负着水文资料收集和为当地防汛提供水文情报预报的工作,同时对下游城市及河道水库有洪水预警预报责任。本文结合洮河上、中游流域特性,经过大量实测水文资料分析研究,根据上下游相应水位(流量)预报法建立了流量线性回归关系,由上游下巴沟水文站及区间入流得出关系式为Q岷县=Q上合+3. 91 Q多坝+41用于洮河岷县站洪水预报,经模型精度评定和实际作业预报,取得了令人满意的效果,具有较广的实用价值。 相似文献
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感潮河段水位过程预报探讨 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
感潮河段水位过程同时受径流、潮流影响,其预报较为困难.将水位过程视为时间序列,用不同的模型进行了预报比较,认为以潮汐作用为主的水位预报可采用神经网络模型,对高水位预报可采用ARMA(2,1)模型,而对洪水作用为主的河道,各模型的预报能力均有待提高 相似文献
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水库防洪实时补偿调度风险分析 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
在假定水库放水河道洪水演进误差和区间来水洪峰预报误差符合正态分布N(0,α)的基础上,提出了水库防洪实时补偿调度的风险分析方法;分析了峰现时间误差对防洪补偿效果的影响,并提出了基于峰现时间误差组合的防洪控制断面洪峰流量变化区间分析方法;通过算例,阐释了所提出方法对实时防洪决策的辅助作用. 相似文献
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在用马斯京根法进行河道流量演算时,由于传统的试算法在精度和客观性上的欠缺,目前广泛使用最小二乘法来进行优化计算.在应用最小二乘法时,发现选择不同的目标函数会对最终的流量计算结果的精度产生影响.因此,本文应用了两种目标函数:河槽蓄量误差最小和出流量误差最小,推导了它们在最小二乘意义上的流量演进参数解析式,进而研究了对流量计算精度的影响.对3场洪水过程的模拟结果表明,以出流量误差最小为目标函数所获得的流量计算精度更高:与河槽蓄量误差最小相比,相对平均绝对误差分别降低了4%,25%和25%,说明使用出流量误差最小作为优化的目标函数更为有效. 相似文献
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杜家台分蓄洪区分洪运用频率分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
针对汉江洪水特点和汉江中下游防洪工程系统现状,建立了计算杜家台分蓄洪区分洪运用频率的二元概率模型。建模中将控制河段上游洪峰流量和下游河流汇合处最高水位作为相互独立随机变量,通过河段安全泄量与河流汇合处水位的关系。导出了分洪洪水洪峰流量的分布函数。经验证该模型的计算结果较为满意。 相似文献
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长江中游武汉-九江河段河道卡口及其阻洪可能效应探讨 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
探讨了长江中游武汉九江河段河道卡口的地质地貌方面特征,并通过对历史水文数据的分析研究了中游河道卡口对洪水的阻碍作用。并以田家镇卡口为典型案例,利用研究河段的水文资料,分析了中游河道卡口对洪水排泄的阻碍作用;如若实施田家镇扩卡,将对中游的防洪是有利的,而且会大大减轻中游特别是武汉的防洪压力,但有可能对下游河势的稳定、河床演变等造成影响,并可能造成其它环境影响,尚需进一步研究。当前全球变暖、水循环加剧、长江中游降水增多,长江中下游将面临更大防洪压力,通过长江中下游扩卡增泄,以适应当前全球变暖的影响。 相似文献
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Midstream of the Keelung River Basin in Northern Taiwan has become highly urbanized and densely populated area. Flood inundation
along riversides frequently occurred during typhoons or rainstorms. Three protection measures, including constructions of
high-level protection levees, a diversion channel, and a detention reservoir, were proposed for flood mitigation. The main
purpose of this study is to evaluate the flood mitigation performance of the three proposed structural measures by using combined
hydrologic analyses and hydraulic routings. A semi-distributed parallel-type linear reservoirs rainfall-runoff model was used
for estimating the surface runoff. Furthermore, a 1-D dynamic channel routing model was coupled with a two-dimensional inundation
model to simulate the hydraulic characteristics of river flooding and overland flow. Simulation results of flood stages, runoff
peak discharges, and inundation extent under design rainfall scenarios were chosen as the criteria for evaluation. The results
showed a diversion channel is superior to the other two measures for flood mitigation of the study area. After the process
of environmental impact assessment, a revised diversion channel approach has been approved for construction as the major structural
measure. 相似文献
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An estimation of discharge using mean velocity derived through Chiu’s velocity equation 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
To estimate discharge through the year (dry season and flood season), a stage–discharge curve derived through monitoring discharge in about 20 rivers or channels every year has been generally used. As revealed in many studies, however, the stage–discharge curve is inevitably affected by their hydraulic characteristics. This suggests that the use of a stage–discharge curve derived without considering hydraulic characteristics unique to a river or channel may produce significant errors in estimating discharge at not only low stage (during dry seasons) but also high stage (during flood seasons). In this study, the authors proposed a method to calculate the mean velocity and to estimate the discharge considering the hydraulic characteristics of a river or channel (e.g. the bed slope, wetted perimeter, width, kinematic viscosity, etc.); the method was developed using Chiu’s velocity equation. With the proposed method, it is possible to calculate a maximum velocity that is difficult to measure in an open channel, derive an entropy function representing the equilibrium of the channel, and thereby, estimate reliable discharge even in a flood season. To comparatively verify the utility of the proposed method, relations between the results of analysis using Manning’s and Chezy’s mean velocity equations and the values of measured discharge were addressed together. The results of analysis using lab data sets and measured data sets revealed that the proposed method was significantly more accurate in estimating discharge, even in flood seasons, when compared with the conventional method. 相似文献
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综合利用油田开发区岩心和测井等资料,对黄骅盆地港西开发区一区l断块新近系明化镇组进行沉积微相研究。结果表明,明化镇组为中一高弯度曲流河沉积,沉积微相单元可以细分为主河道、支河道、河间溢岸沉积、废弃河道和泛滥平原等,不同的微相单元在测井曲线上具有较好的电性响应特征。在总结沉积微相发育模式的基础上,认为在高可容纳空间体系阶段,孤立的条带状河道砂体镶嵌在大面积分布的河间及泛滥平原细粒沉积背景当中,河道砂体被泥岩所分隔;而在低可容纳空间体系阶段,多层不同期次的河道砂体发生切割叠置,造成砂体厚度较大,连通性较好。垂向上,河道砂体的不同配置方式体现了A/S比值随时间的旋回性变化的控制作用。 相似文献
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利用实地考察、浅钻孔、探槽及卫星影像等方法,对鄱阳湖信江决口三角洲进行了系统研究。该决口三角洲是洪水冲破信江西岸天然堤流入附近的河漫湖泊形成的,其平面形态为鸟足状,总体延伸方向与主河道近垂直。在横切剖面上整个决口三角洲沉积体呈透镜状覆盖在早期的湿地或河漫湖泊沉积之上。鄱阳湖信江决口三角洲可分为3个亚相:决口三角洲平原、决口三角洲前缘和决口前三角洲。决口三角洲平原主要发育决口河道、决口天然堤、废弃决口河道和湿地,其中决口河道又可以进一步划分为决口水道、边滩、汊口滩;决口三角洲前缘主要发育河口坝、支流间湾。河漫湖泊规模小、深度浅、波浪能量弱,对河口坝和决口河道砂体的改造较弱,不易形成连片分布的席状砂;决口前三角洲不发育。决口三角洲沉积受河流作用和河漫湖泊作用的共同控制,其演化可以划分为主河道天然堤生长阶段、决口初期阶段、进积分汊阶段及分汊—废弃阶段4个阶段。 相似文献
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Response of bankfull discharge of the Inner Mongolia Yellow River to flow and sediment factors 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Bankfull discharge is a comprehensive factor reflecting the channel-forming capability of water flow and the flood and sediment transport capacity of a river channel. It is based on the interaction of the flow, sediment, and river channel, of which flow and sediment conditions play crucial roles. Using data recorded since the 1950s, this paper analyses statistically, the characteristics and variations of bankfull discharge at two stations on the Inner Mongolian reaches of the upper Yellow River. Results indicate that flood season variations in bankfull discharge are nonlinear and are governed by flood peak discharge, mean discharge, and the mean incoming sediment coefficients. Variation in bankfull discharge is related not only to the flow and sediment conditions of the current year but also to those of previous years. The 10-year moving average of flow and sediment conditions can be representative of present and previous years. By considering flood season peak discharge and incoming sediment coefficients as independent impact factors, a formula is derived to determine bankfull discharge. The results can be used to predict the bankfull discharge of the Yellow River channel in Inner Mongolia under specific flow and sediment conditions and provide reference for the purpose of further study related to restoring and maintaining the basic functions of the river channel regarding flood discharge and sediments. 相似文献