基于地理探测器的喀斯特不同地貌形态类型区土壤侵蚀定量归因（英文）

The formation mechanism and influencing factors identification of soil erosion are the core and frontier issues of current research. However, studies on the multi-factor synthesis are still relatively lacked. In this study, the simulation of soil erosion and its quantitative attribution analysis have been conducted in different geomorphological types in a typical karst basin based on the RUSLE model and the geodetector method. The influencing factors, such as land use type, slope, rainfall, elevation, lithology and vegetation cover, have been taken into consideration. Results show that the strength of association between the six influencing factors and soil erosion was notably different in diverse geomorphological types. Land use type and slope were the dominant factors of soil erosion in the Sancha River Basin, especially for land use type whose power of determinant(q value) for soil erosion was much higher than other factors. The q value of slope declined with the increase of relief in mountainous areas, namely it was ranked as follows: middle elevation hill small relief mountain middle relief mountain. Multi-factors interactions were proven to significantly strengthen soil erosion, particularly for the combination of land use type with slope, which can explain 70% of soil erosion distribution. It can be found that soil erosion in the same land use type with different slopes(such as dry land with slopes of 5° and above 25°) or in the diverse land use types with the same slope(such as dry land and forest with a slope of 5°), varied much. These indicate that prohibiting steep slope cultivation and Grain for Green Project are reasonable measures to control soil erosion in karst areas. Based on statistics of soil erosion difference between diverse stratifications of each influencing factor, results of risk detector suggest that the amount of stratification combinations with significant difference accounted for 55% at least in small relief mountain and middle relief mountainous areas. Therefore, the spatial heterogeneity of soil erosion and its influencing factors in different geomorphological types should be investigated to control karst soil loss more effectively.     

陕北地区退耕还林还草工程土壤保护效应的时空特征

This paper looks at the Green for Grain Project in northern Shaanxi Province.Based on remote sensing monitoring data,this study analyzes the locations of arable land in northern Shaanxi in the years 2000,2010 and 2013 as well as spatio-temporal changes over that period,and then incorporates data on the distribution of terraced fields to improve the input parameters of a RUSLE model and simulate and generate raster data on soil erosion for northern Shaanxi at different stages with a accuracy verification.Finally,combined with the dataset of farmland change,compared and analyzed the characteristics of soil erosion change in the converted farmland to forest(grassland)and the unconverted farmland in northern Shaanxi,so as to determine the project’s impact on soil erosion over time across the region.The results show that between 2000 and 2010,the soil erosion modulus of repurposed farmland in northern Shaanxi decreased 22.7 t/ha,equivalent to 47.08%of the soil erosion modulus of repurposed farmland in 2000.In the same period,the soil erosion modulus of non-repurposed farmland fell 10.99 t/ha,equivalent to 28.6%of the soil erosion modulus of non-repurposed farmland in 2000.The soil erosion modulus for all types of land in northern Shaanxi decreased by an average of 14.51 t/ha between 2000 and 2010,equivalent to 41.87%of the soil erosion modulus for the entire region in 2000.This suggests that the Green for Grain Project effectively reduced the soil erosion modulus,thus helping to protect the soil.In particular,arable land that was turned into forest and grassland reduced erosion most noticeably and contributed most to soil conservation.Nevertheless,in the period 2010 to 2013,which was a period of consolidation of the Green for Grain Project,the soil erosion modulus and change in volume of soil erosion in northern Shaanxi were significantly lower than in the previous decade.     

贵州猫跳河流域土地利用变化和土壤侵蚀(英文)

Due to the extremely poor soil cover, a low soil-forming rate, and inappropriate intensive land use, soil erosion is a serious problem in Guizhou Province, which is located in the centre of the karst areas of Southwest China. In order to bring soil erosion under control and restore environment, the Chinese Government has initiated a serious of ecological rehabilitation projects such as the Grain-for-Green Programme and Natural Forest Protection Program and brought about tremendous influences on land-use change and soil erosion in Guizhou Province. This paper explored the relationship between land use and soil erosion in the Maotiao River watershed, a typical agricultural area with severe soil erosion in central Guizhou Province. In this study, we analyzed the spatio-temporal dynamic change of land-use type in Maotiao River watershed from 1973 to 2007 using Landsat MSS image in 1973, Landsat TM data in 1990 and 2007. Soil erosion change characteristics from 1973 to 2007, and soil loss among different land-use types were examined by integrating the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) with a GIS environment. The results indicate that changes in land use within the watershed have significantly affected soil erosion. From 1973 to 1990, dry farmland and rocky desertified land significantly increased. In contrast, shrubby land, other forestland and grassland significantly decreased, which caused accelerated soil erosion in the study area. This trend was reversed from 1990 to 2007 with an increased area of land-use types for ecological use owing to the implementation of environmental protection programs. Soil erosion also significantly varied among land-use types. Erosion was most serious in dry farmland and the lightest in paddy field. Dry farmland with a gradient of 6°-25° was the major contributor to soil erosion, and conservation practices should be taken in these areas. The results of this study provide useful information for decision makers and planners to take sustainable land use management and soil conservation measures in the area.     

基于土壤侵蚀控制度的黄土高原水土流失治理潜力研究（英文）

The capacity of soil and water conservation measures, defined as the maximum quantity of suitable soil and water conservation measures contained in a region, were determined for the Loess Plateau based on zones suitable for establishing terraced fields, forestland and grassland with the support of geographic information system(GIS) software. The minimum possible soil erosion modulus and actual soil erosion modulus in 2010 were calculated using the revised universal soil loss equation(RUSLE), and the ratio of the minimum possible soil erosion modulus under the capacity of soil and water conservation measures to the actual soil erosion modulus was defined as the soil erosion control degree. The control potential of soil erosion and water loss in the Loess Plateau was studied using this concept. Results showed that the actual soil erosion modulus was 3355 t·km~(–2)·a~(–1), the minimum possible soil erosion modulus was 1921 t·km~(–2)·a~(–1), and the soil erosion control degree was 0.57(medium level) in the Loess Plateau in 2010. In terms of zoning, the control degree was relatively high in the river valley-plain area, soil-rocky mountainous area, and windy-sandy area, but relatively low in the soil-rocky hilly-forested area, hilly-gully area and plateau-gully area. The rate of erosion areas with a soil erosion modulus of less than 1000 t·km~(–2)·a~(–1) increased from 50.48% to 57.71%, forest and grass coverage rose from 56.74% to 69.15%, rate of terraced fields increased from 4.36% to 19.03%, and per capita grain available rose from 418 kg·a~(–1) to 459 kg·a~(–1) under the capacity of soil and water conservation measures compared with actual conditions. These research results are of some guiding significance for soil and water loss control in the Loess Plateau.     

一种土壤属性制图的曲面建模方法(英文)

High accuracy surface modeling(HASM) is a method which can be applied to soil property interpolation.In this paper,we present a method of HASM combined geographic information for soil property interpolation(HASM-SP) to improve the accuracy.Based on soil types,land use types and parent rocks,HASM-SP was applied to interpolate soil available P,Li,pH,alkali-hydrolyzable N,total K and Cr in a typical red soil hilly region.To evaluate the performance of HASM-SP,we compared its performance with that of ordinary kriging(OK),ordinary kriging combined geographic information(OK-Geo) and stratified kriging(SK).The results showed that the methods combined with geographic information including HASM-SP and OK-Geo obtained a lower estimation bias.HASM-SP also showed less MAEs and RMSEs when it was compared with the other three methods(OK-Geo,OK and SK).Much more details were presented in the HASM-SP maps for soil properties due to the combination of different types of geographic information which gave abrupt boundary for the spatial varia-tion of soil properties.Therefore,HASM-SP can not only reduce prediction errors but also can be accordant with the distribution of geographic information,which make the spatial simula-tion of soil property more reasonable.HASM-SP has not only enriched the theory of high accuracy surface modeling of soil property,but also provided a scientific method for the ap-plication in resource management and environment planning.     

侵蚀泥沙、有机质和全氮富集规律

Serious soil erosion has already resulted in degradation of the Loess Plateau of China. Soil erosion is commonly accompanied by extensive soil nutrient loss. Because of enrichment processes,sediment nutrient content is often higher than that of natural soil. The objective of this study is to determine the enrichments of organic matter and total nitrogen in sediment in hilly and gully loess areas on the Loess Plateau of China. Measurements of enrichment ratios (ER) of organic matter (EROM) and total nitrogen (ERTN) in sediment as affected by rainfall, slope gradient, tillage, and fertilization were made in the field under natural rainfall conditions. The results showed that the enrichment of clay in sediment resulted in the enrichment of organic matter (OM) and total nitrogen(TN) in sediment. The averages of sediment clay ER, EROM and ERTN for the various slope gradients were 1.77, 2.09 and 1.61, respectively. The soil erosive module was negatively correlated with EROM and ERTN. Our results indicate that measures to reduce soil erosion, i.e. reducing rainfall erosivity, decreasing soil slope gradient, decreasing fertilizer use, and using level trenches, may increase EROM and ERTN. Both quantity and quality of sediment yield should be considered when implementing erosion control measures.     

东北黑土漫岗区长坡面坡耕地侵蚀产沙沿程变化

Characteristics of soil erosion change along a long slope in the gentle hilly areas in black soil region in Northeast China are discussed. A simplified slope model based on seg-ments was used to analyze the runoff data and soil erosion data observed between 2003 and 2004 over 10 field plots with different slope length in Heshan Farm,Heilongjiang Province. We found that soil erosion rate over long slopes in the black soil region changed alternatively along the slope and creates alternative zones of intensive erosion and week erosion.The exact place of each zone is different for different rainfall conditions. In a year with less and mild precipitation,rill cannot happen within the top 50 m,while in a year with large and inten-sive precipitation,rill can be formed starting even at 15 m from the top of the slope.     

东北黑土区容许土壤流失量研究(英文)

Soil loss tolerance(T) is the maximum rate of annual soil erosion that is tolerated and still allows a high level of crop productivity to be sustained economically and indefinitely.In the black soil region of Northeast China,an empirically determined,default T value of 200(t/km2?a) is used for designing land restoration strategies for different types of soils.The ob-jective of this study was to provide a methodology to calculate a quantitative T for different black soil species.A field investigation was conducted to determine the typical soil profiles of 21 black soil species in the study area and a quantitative methodology based on a modified soil productivity index model was established to calculate the T values.These values,which varied from 68 t/km2?a to 358 t/km2?a,yielded an average T value of 141 t/km2?a for the 21 soil species.This is 29.5% lower than the current national standard T value.Two significant factors that influenced the T value were soil thickness and vulnerability to erosion.An ac-ceptable reduction rate of soil productivity over a planned time period of 1% is recommended as necessary for maintaining long-term sustainable soil productivity.Compared with the cur-rently used of regional unified standard T value,the proposed method,which determines T using specific soil profile indices,has more practical implications for effective,sustainable management of soil and water conservation.     

Desertification status mapping in Muttuma Watershed by using Random Forest Model

Potential of the Random Forest Model on mapping of different desertification processes was studied in Muttuma watershed of mid-Murrumbidgee river region of New South Wales,Australia.Desertification vulnerability index was developed using climate,terrain,vegetation,soil and land quality indices to identify environmentally sensitive areas for desertification.Random Forest Model(RFM)was used to predict the different desertification processes such as soil erosion,salinization and waterlogging in the watershed and the information needed to train classification algorithms was obtained from satellite imagery interpretation and ground truth data.Climatic factors(evaporation,rainfall,temperature),terrain factors(aspect,slope,slope length,steepness,and wetness index),soil properties(pH,organic carbon,clay and sand content)and vulnerability indices were used as an explanatory variable.Classification accuracy and kappa index were calculated for training and testing datasets.We recorded an overall accuracy rate of 87.7%and 72.1%for training and testing sites,respectively.We found larger discrepancies between overall accuracy rate and kappa index for testing datasets(72.2%and 27.5%,respectively)suggesting that all the classes are not predicted well.The prediction of soil erosion and no desertification process was good and poor for salinization and water-logging process.Overall,the results observed give a new idea of using the knowledge of desertification process in training areas that can be used to predict the desertification processes at unvisited areas.     

梯田建设和淤地坝淤积对土壤侵蚀影响的定量分析(英文)

To study the influences of terraced field construction and check-dam siltation on soil erosion of a watershed,we built a simplified watershed model for the Loess Plateau hilly-gully region including terraced fields,slope farmlands,steep-slope grasslands,and dam farmlands,and defined three states of watershed(i.e.,pioneer,intermediate,and climax stages,respectively).Then,the watershed soil erosion moduli at various stages were studied by using a revised universal soil loss equation.Our results show that the pioneer and climax stages are the extreme states of watershed soil-and-water conservation and control;in the pioneer stage,the soil erosion modulus was 299.56 t ha-1 a-1 above the edge of gully,136.64 t ha-1 a-1 below the edge of gully,and 229.74 t ha-1 a-1 on average;in the climax stage,the soil erosion modulus was 39.10 t ha-1 a-1 above the edge of gully,1.10 t ha-1 a-1 below the edge of gully,and 22.81 t ha-1 a-1 on average;in the intermediate stage,the soil erosion modulus above the edge of gully exhibited an exponential decline along with the increase in terraced field area percentage,while the soil erosion modulus below the edge of gully exhibited a linear decline along with the increase in siltation height.     

A study of soil dispersivity in Qian'an, western Jilin Province of China

Saline soil is vulnerable to water erosion because of its dispersivity. This characteristic has a great influence on dam and slope engineering. There is a large area of saline soil in western Jilin Province, the seasonal frost zone, and this soil is highly dispersive. We studied the properties of soil samples collected from vertical holes near Qian'an Dabusu Lake, assessing the particle size distribution and the chemical components. We also comprehensively identified the level of soil dispersivity by three standard methods, the pinhole test, the crumb test, and the double-hydrometer test. The soil composition and basic physicochemical properties are proved to be the most important factors which determine the dispersion degree of the saline soil. Our results showed that, within depth ranges from 0 to 1 m, silt particles highly influenced the soil dispersivity, and the total soluble salt accounted for ≥0.3%. At the first sampling point, in a tall soil column, the dispersion degree decreased with increasing depth, but this was not as obvious at the second sampling point, which was in a flat area. Nevertheless, the superficial soils of these two sampling sites were strongly dispersive, which must be taken into consideration for soil engineering in this region.     

Soil erosion risk evaluation using GIS in the Yuanmou County, a dry-hot valley of Yunnan, China

Soil erosion is a major threat to sustainable agriculture. Evaluating regional erosion risk is increasingly needed by national and in-ternational environmental agencies. This study elaborates a model (using spatial principal component analysis [SPCA]) method for the evaluation of soil erosion risk in a representative area of dry-hot valley (Yuanmou County) at a scale of 1:100,000 using a spatial database and GIS. The model contains seven factors: elevation, slope, annual precipitation, land use, vegetation, soil, and population density. The evaluation results show that five grades of soil erosion risk: very low, low, medium, high, and very high. These are divided in the study area, and a soil erosion risk evaluation map is created. The model may be applicable to other areas of China because it utilizes spatial data that are generally available.     

Changes in soil and vegetation on moving sand dunes after exclosure in Horqin Sandy Land, Northern China

In the semiarid Horqin Sandy Land of northern China, land desertification is the main causation in vegetation degradation and formation of moving dunes. A study was conducted from 1996 to 2005 to monitor the changes of vegetation characteristics and soil properties after moving dunes were fenced. The changes were compared between moving sand dunes with exclosure and without exclosure to evaluate the effectiveness of vegetation and soil restoration after exclosure establishment. The results show that exlosure establishment facilitated the colonization and development of plant species by ameliorating stressful environmental conditions. Species diversity, average coverage, and plant density significantly increased after exclosure of moving sand dunes along sequence compared with sand dunes without exclosure. Vegetation recovery on moving sand dunes accelerated by exclosure resulted in significant changes in soil properties including increased silt and clay contents, organic C and total N and decreased sand content, especially at the 0-5 cm depth. The results implied that moving sand dunes can be rapidly fixed by construction of exclosure.     

Shrubs proliferated within a six-year exclosure in a temperate grassland—Spatiotemporal relationships between vegetation and soil variables

Overgrazing has been considered one of the maj or causes that trigger shrub encroachment of grassland. Proliferation of shrubs in grassland is recognized as an important indicator of grassland degradation and desertification. In China, various conservation measures, including enclosures to reduce livestock grazing, have been taken to reverse the trend of grassland desertification, yet shrubs have been reported to increase in the grasslands over the past decades. In late 2007, we set up a 400-m-by-50-m exclosure in a long-term overgrazed temperate grassland in Inner Mongolia, with the ob- jective to quantify the spatiotemporal relationship between vegetation dynamics, soil variables, and grazing exclusion. Soil moisture was continuously monitored within the exclosure, and cover and aboveground biomass of the shrubs were measured inside the exclosure in 2007, 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2013, and outside the exclosure in 2012 and 2013. We found the average shrub cover and biomass significantly increased in the six years by 103 % and 120%, respectively. The result supported the hypothesis that releasing grazing pressure following long-term overgrazing tends to trigger shrub invasion into grassland. Our results, limited to a single gradient, suggest that any conservation measures with quick release of overgrazing pressure by enclosure or other similar means might do just the opposite to accelerate shrub en- croachment in grassland. The changes in vegetation cover and biomass were regressed on the temporal average of the soil moisture content by means of the generalized least square technique to quantify the effect of the spatial autocor- relation. The result indicates that the grass cover and biomass significantly increased with the top, but decreased with the bottom layer soil moisture. The shrub cover and biomass, on the other hand, decreased with the top, but increased with bottom soil moisture, although the regression coefficients for the shrubs were not statistically significant. Hence this study supports the two-layered soil model which assumes grasses and shrubs use belowground resources in dif- ferent depths.     

Determination of long-term strength of frozen loess after numerous freeze-thaw cycles

In order to determine the changing rule of long-term frozen soil strength and elucidate the connection between long-term strength and soil physical properties,frozen loess was subjected to 4,6,8,10,and 50 freeze-thaw cycles,under closed-state conditions in a constant-temperature box.The frozen samples were tested on a spherical template indenter,and the results show that under the effect of repeated freeze-thaw cycles,the long-term strength of frozen loess decreased; changes in the mechanical property indices were highly unstable during the first 10 cycles; the soil strength and density were the greatest at the eighth cycle while the void ratio was the smallest; and after eight cycles all of the indices had less fluctuation and certain rising or falling tendencies.By converting the number of freeze-thaw cycles into elapsed time in the tests,three different forecasting methods of long-term soil strength could be assessed and the soil equivalent cohesive force after 10 years,20 years,or 30 years could be estimated.     

1961-2005年水利水保措施对潮河流域年径流量的影响(英文)

Taking the Chaohe River Basin above the Miyun Reservoir in North China as a study area,the characteristics and variation trends of annual runoff and annual precipitation during 1961-2005 were analyzed applying Mann-Kendall test method on the basis of the hydrologic data of the major hydrological station(Xiahui Station) located at the outlet of the drainage basin and the meteorological data of 17 rainfall stations.Human activities including water conservancy projects construction and water diversion as well as implementation of soil and water conservation from 1961 to 2005 were carefully studied using time series contrasting method.The referenced period(1961-1980) that influenced slightly by human activities and the compared period(1981-2005) that influenced significantly by water conservancy and soil conservation measures were identified according to the runoff variation process analysis and abrupt change points detection during 1961-2005 applying double accumulative curve method,mean shift t-test method and Mann-Kendall mutation test technique.Based on the establishment of a rainfall-runoff empirical statistical model,impacts and the runoff-reducing effects of water conservancy and soil conservation measures on runoff reduction were evaluated quantitatively.The major results could be summarized as follows:(1) The annual precipitation in the drainage basin tends to decrease while the runoff has declined markedly since the 1960s,the average annual runoff from 1991 to 2000 was only 90.9% in proportion to that from 1961 to 1970.(2) The annual runoff variations in the drainage basin are significantly related to human activities.(3) During 1981-1990,1991-2000,2001-2005 and 1981-2005,the average annual runoff reduction amounts were 1.15×108,0.28×108,1.10×108 and 0.79×108 m3 respectively and the average annual runoff-reducing effects were 31.99%,7.13%,40.71% and 23.79% accordingly.Runoff-reducing effects by water conservancy and soil conservation measures are more prominent in the low water period.     

黄土高原多沙区环境因子对土地利用变化空间异质性的影响(英文)

In areas with topographic heterogeneity, land use change is spatially variable and influenced by climate, soil properties, and topography. To better understand this variability in the high-sediment region of the Loess Plateau in which soil loss is most severe and sediment diameter is larger than in other regions of the plateau, this study builds some indicators to identify the characteristics of land use change and then analyze the spatial variability as it is affected by climate, soil property, and topography. We build two indicators, a land use change intensity index and a vegetation change index, to characterize the intensity of land use change, and the degree of vegetation restoration, respectively. Based on a subsection mean method, the two indicators are then used to assess the spatial variability of land use change affected by climatic, edaphic, and topographic elements. The results indicate that: 1) Land use changed significantly in the period 1998–2010. The total area experiencing land use change was 42,302 km2, accounting for 22.57%of the study area. High-coverage grassland, other woodland, and forest increased significantly, while low-coverage grassland and farmland decreased in 2010 compared with 1998. 2) Land use change occurred primarily west of the Yellow River, between 35 and 38 degrees north latitude. The four transformation types, including(a) low-coverage grassland to medium-coverage grassland,(b) medium-coverage grassland to high-coverage grassland,(c) farmland to other woodland, and(d) farmland to medium-coverage grassland, were the primary types of land use change, together constituting 60% of the area experiencing land use change. 3) The spatial variability of land use change was significantly affected by properties of dryness/wetness, soil conditions and slope gradient. In general, land use changed dramatically in semi-arid regions, remained relativelystable in arid regions, changed significantly in clay-rich soil, remained relatively stable in clay-poor soil, changed dramatically in steeper slopes, and remained relatively stable in tablelands and low-lying regions. The increase in vegetation coincided with increasing changes in land use for each physical element. These findings allow for an evaluation of the effect of the Grain to Green Program, and are applicable to the design of soil and water conservation projects on the Loess Plateau of China.     

Using remote-sensing technologies in combination with Cesium-137 measurements to estimate soil-erosion quantity in semi-arid steppe areas

Soil erosion by wind is one of the most important processes in the changing the earth’s surface in semi-arid areas,Thus it is of great importance to study soil-erosion action.Using integrated technologies of remote sensing and geochemistry radioactivity iso-tope to extract regional soil-erosion information and to calculate quantity of soil erosion is accomplished successfully in this paper by means of beneficial experiments in the Talatan region of the Gonghe Basin,which is located in northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Pla-teau in China.The results show that the soil erosion by wind is not intensive in this region;the erosion types belong to the classes of very-soft erosion and soft-erosion type,which account for 47.12 percent and 35.58 percent,respectively,of the total study area.In total,two kinds of soil erosion account for 82.70 percent of the study area;only a small area belongs to the classes of severe erosion and very-severe erosion;this area is about 22.14 km2.Severe deposition activity has taken place in this region,and has appeared in a large area(322.67 km2),which accounts for 11.78 percent of the total study area.The results of this study show that soil erosion and deposition inventories are 870,000-1,150,000 tons and 550,000-780,000 tons,respectively,per year.The soil in-ventory shows about 320,000-370,000 tons from Talatan to Longyangxia reservoir per year.Using remote-sensing technology and 137Cs techniques is a valid means to analyze and to evaluate the quantity of soil erosion by wind in semi-arid environments.     

The effect of environmental factors on spatial variability in land use change in the high-sediment region of China’s Loess Plateau

In areas with topographic heterogeneity, land use change is spatially variable and influenced by climate, soil properties, and topography. To better understand this variability in the high-sediment region of the Loess Plateau in which soil loss is most severe and sediment diameter is larger than in other regions of the plateau, this study builds some indicators to identify the characteristics of land use change and then analyze the spatial variability as it is affected by climate, soil property, and topography. We build two indicators, a land use change intensity index and a vegetation change index, to characterize the intensity of land use change, and the degree of vegetation restoration, respectively. Based on a subsection mean method, the two indicators are then used to assess the spatial variability of land use change affected by climatic, edaphic, and topographic elements. The results indicate that： 1） Land use changed significantly in the period 1998-2010. The total area experiencing land use change was 42,302 km2, accounting for 22.57%of the study area. High-coverage grassland, other woodland, and forest increased significantly, while low-coverage grassland and farmland decreased in 2010 compared with 1998.2） Land use change occurred primarily west of the Yellow River, between 35 and 38 degrees north latitude. The four transformation types, including （a） low-coverage grassland to medium-coverage grassland, （b） medium-coverage grassland to high-coverage grassland, （c） farmland to other woodland, and （d） farmland to medium-coverage grassland, were the primary types of land use change, together constituting 60% of the area experiencing land use change. 3） The spatial variability of land use change was significantly affected by properties of dryness/wetness, soil conditions and slope gradient. In general, land use changed dramatically in semi-arid regions, remained relatively stable in arid regions, changed significantly in clay-rich soil, remained relatively stable in clay-poor soil, changed dramatically in steeper slopes, and remained relatively stable in tablelands and low-lying regions. The increase in vegetation coincided with increasing changes in land use for each physical element. These findings allow for an evaluation of the effect of the Grain to Green Program, and are applicable to the design of soil and water conservation projects on the Loess Plateau of China.     

华北平原禹城市耕地变化与驱动力分析(英文)

Taking Yucheng, a typical agricultural county in Shandong Province as a case, this study applied Logistic regression models to spatially identify factors affecting farmland changes. Using two phases of high resolution imageries in 2001 and 2009, the study obtained the land use and farmland change data in 2001-2009. It was found that the farmland was reduced by 5.14% in the period, mainly due to the farmland conversion to forest land and built-up land, although part of forest land and unused land was converted to farmland. The results of Logistic regressions indicated that location, population growth and farmer income were main factors affecting the farmland conversion, while soil types and pro-curvature were main natural factors controlling the distribution of farmland changes. Regional differences and temporal-spatial variables of farmland changes affected fitting capability of the Logistic re-gression models. The ROC fitting test indicated that the Logistic regression models gave a good explanation of the regional land-use changes. Logistic regression analysis is a good tool to identify major factors affecting land use change by quantifying the contribution of each factor.