Hydrologic flowpaths during snowmelt in forested headwater catchments under differing winter climatic and soil frost regimes

Changes in hydrologic flowpaths have important impacts on the timing, magnitude and hydrochemistry of run‐off during snowmelt in forested catchments, but how flowpaths are affected by variation in winter climate and the irregular presence of soil frost remains poorly understood. The depth and extent of soil frost may be expected to increase as snowpack decreases or develops later because of climate change. In this study, we used end‐member mixing analysis to determine daily contributions of snow, forest floor soil water and groundwater to stream run‐off during snowmelt under different soil frost regimes resulting from interannual and elevational variation at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. We observed greater routing of run‐off through forest floor flowpaths during early snowmelt in 2011, when the snowpack was deep and soil frost was minimal, compared with the early snowmelt in 2012 under conditions of deep and extensive soil frost. The results indicate that widespread soil frost that penetrated the depth of the forest floor decreased the flow signal through the shallowest subsurface flowpaths, but did not reduce overall infiltration of melt waters, as the contribution from the snow‐precipitation end‐member was similar under both conditions. These results are consistent with development of granular soil frost which permits vertical infiltration of melt waters, but either reduces lateral flow in the forest floor or prevents the solute exchange that would produce the typical chemical signature of shallow subsurface flowpaths in streamwater. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Land cover controls on depression‐focused recharge on the Oak Ridges Moraine,southern Ontario,Canada

The Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) is a key hydrogeologic feature in southern Ontario. Previous research has emphasized the importance of depression‐focused recharge (DFR) for the timing and location of water recharge to the ORM's aquifers. However, the significance of DFR has not been empirically demonstrated, and the ORM's permeable surficial deposits imply that rainfall and snowmelt will largely recharge vertically rather than move laterally to topographic depressions. The exception may be during winter and spring, when concrete soil frost limits infiltration and encourages overland flow. The potential for DFR was examined for closed depressions under forest and agricultural land covers with similar soils and surficial geology. Air temperatures, precipitation, snow depth and water equivalent, soil water contents, soil freezing, and depression surface‐water levels were monitored during the winter and spring of 2012–2013 and 2013–2014. Recharge (R) was estimated at the crest and base of each depression using a 1‐dimensional water balance approach and surface‐applied Br^? tracing. Both forest and agricultural land covers experienced soil freezing; however, forest soils did not develop concrete frost. Conversely, agricultural fields saw concrete frost, overland flow, episodic ponding, and subsequent drainage of rain‐on‐snow and snowmelt inputs in open depressions. Recharge at the base of open depressions exceeded that in surrounding areas by an order of magnitude, suggesting that DFR is a significant hydrologic process during winter and spring under agricultural land cover on the ORM. Closed topographic depressions under agricultural land cover on the ORM crest may serve as critical recharge “hot spots” during winter and spring, and the ability of the unsaturated zone beneath these depressions to modify the chemistry of recharging water deserves further attention.     

Effects of frozen soil and snow cover on cold‐season soil water dynamics in Tokachi,Japan

Despite the potential impact of winter soil water movements in cold regions, relatively few field studies have investigated cold‐season hydrological processes that occur before spring‐onset of snowmelt infiltration. The contribution of soil water fluxes in winter to the annual water balance was evaluated over 5 years of field observations at an agricultural field in Tokachi, Hokkaido, Japan. In two of the winters, soil frost reached a maximum depth of 0·2 m (‘frozen’ winters), whereas soil frost was mostly absent during the remaining three winters (‘unfrozen’ winters). Significant infiltration of winter snowmelt water, to a depth exceeding 1·0 m, occurred during both frozen and unfrozen winters. Such infiltration ranged between 126 and 255 mm, representing 28–51% of total annual soil water fluxes. During frozen winters, a substantial quantity of water (ca 40 mm) was drawn from deeper layers into the 0–0·2 m topsoil layer when this froze. Under such conditions, the progression and regression of the freezing front, regulated by the thickness of snow cover, controlled the quantity of soil water flux below the frozen layer. During unfrozen winters, 13–62 mm of water infiltrated to a depth of 0·2 m, before the spring snowmelt. These results indicate the importance of correctly evaluating winter soil water movement in cold regions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of mid‐twenty‐first century climate and land cover change on the hydrology of the Puget Sound basin,Washington

The distributed hydrology–soil–vegetation model (DHSVM) was used to study the potential impacts of projected future land cover and climate change on the hydrology of the Puget Sound basin, Washington, in the mid‐twenty‐first century. A 60‐year climate model output, archived for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), was statistically downscaled and used as input to DHSVM. From the DHSVM output, we extracted multi‐decadal averages of seasonal streamflow, annual maximum flow, snow water equivalent (SWE), and evapotranspiration centred around 2030 and 2050. Future land cover was represented by a 2027 projection, which was extended to 2050, and DHSVM was run (with current climate) for these future land cover projections. In general, the climate change signal alone on sub‐basin streamflow was evidenced primarily through changes in the timing of winter and spring runoff, and slight increases in the annual runoff. Runoff changes in the uplands were attributable both to climate (increased winter precipitation, less snow) and land cover change (mostly reduced vegetation maturity). The most climatically sensitive parts of the uplands were in areas where the current winter precipitation is in the rain–snow transition zone. Changes in land cover were generally more important than climate change in the lowlands, where a substantial change to more urbanized land use and increased runoff was predicted. Both the annual total and seasonal distribution of freshwater flux to Puget Sound are more sensitive to climate change impacts than to land cover change, primarily because most of the runoff originates in the uplands. Both climate and land cover change slightly increase the annual freshwater flux to Puget Sound. Changes in the seasonal distribution of freshwater flux are mostly related to climate change, and consist of double‐digit increases in winter flows and decreases in summer and fall flows. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of deforestation and weather on diurnal frost heave processes on the steep mountain slopes in south central Japan

Freezing and thawing processes play an important role for the gravitational transport of surface materials on steep mountain slopes in Japan. The effects of deforestation on frost heave activity were observed through the 2012/2013 winter season in Ikawa University Forest, a southern mountainous area in central Japan (1180–1310 m above sea level). During periods without snow cover, needle ice development prevailed at a clear‐cut site, and the downslope sediment movement of upper soil was 10 to 15 cm through the winter season. At a non‐cut site, rise and fall in the ground surface level prevailed on a weekly scale, with no evident downslope movements at the surface; ice lens formation in the soil layer is assumed. Abrupt changes in the radiation budget, such as the strengthening of nighttime radiative cooling and increases in daytime direct insolation, induced frequent development/deformation of needle ice at the clear‐cut site. In snow‐free periods, the day‐to‐day variability in needle ice growth length and in nighttime averaged net radiation showed significant correlations; cloudy weather with warmer and moist air intrusion associated with synoptic disturbances prevented the occurrence of needle ice. Namely, day‐to‐day weather changes directly affected the mass movement of the upper soil after deforestation. Shallow snow cover occurred discontinuously through the winter and is likely an important factor in keeping the soil moisture sufficiently high in the upper soil layer for initiating needle ice during snow‐free periods. We also discuss contributions of coastal extratropical cyclone activities providing both snow cover and cloudy weather in the southern mountain areas of central Japan to the intra‐seasonal variability in frost heave and its indirect effect on soil creep and landslides on the deforested steep slopes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Soil frost effects on soil water and runoff dynamics along a boreal forest transect: 1. Field investigations

To determine how soil frost changes flowpaths of runoff water along a hillslope, a transect consisting of four soil profiles directed towards a small stream in a mature forest stand was investigated at Svartberget, near Vindeln in northern Sweden. Soil temperature, unfrozen water content, groundwater level and snow depth were investigated along the transect, which started at the riparian peat, and extended 30 m upslope into mineral soils. The two, more organic‐rich profiles closest to the stream had higher water retention and wetter autumn conditions than the sandy mineral soils further upslope. The organic content of the soil influenced the variation in frost along the transect. The first winter (1995–96) had abnormally low snow precipitation, which gave a deep frost down to 40–80 cm, whereas the two following winters had frost depths of 5–20 cm. During winter 1995–96, the two organic profiles close to the stream had a shallower frost depth than the mineral soil profile higher upslope, but a considerably larger amount of frozen water. The fraction of water that did not freeze despite several minus degrees in the soil was 5–7 vol.% in the mineral soil and 10–15 vol.% in the organic soil. From the measurements there were no signs of perched water tables during any of the three snowmelt periods, which would have been strong evidence for changed water flowpaths due to soil frost. When shallow soil layers became saturated during snowmelt, especially in 1997 and 1998, it was because of rising groundwater levels. Several rain on frozen ground events during spring 1996 resulted in little runoff, since most of the rain either froze in the soil or filled up the soil water storage. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Observations of late winter Canadian tundra snow cover properties

Tundra snow cover is important to monitor as it influences local, regional, and global‐scale surface water balance, energy fluxes, as well as ecosystem and permafrost dynamics. Observations are already showing a decrease in spring snow cover duration at high latitudes, but the impact of changing winter season temperature and precipitation on variables such as snow water equivalent (SWE) is less clear. A multi‐year project was initiated in 2004 with the objective to quantify tundra snow cover properties over multiple years at a scale appropriate for comparison with satellite passive microwave remote sensing data and regional climate and hydrological models. Data collected over seven late winter field campaigns (2004 to 2010) show the patterns of snow depth and SWE are strongly influenced by terrain characteristics. Despite the spatial heterogeneity of snow cover, several inter‐annual consistencies were identified. A regional average density of 0.293 g/cm³ was derived and shown to have little difference with individual site densities when deriving SWE from snow depth measurements. The inter‐annual patterns of SWE show that despite variability in meteorological forcing, there were many consistent ratios between the SWE on flat tundra and the SWE on lakes, plateaus, and slopes. A summary of representative inter‐annual snow stratigraphy from different terrain categories is also presented. © 2013 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. Hydrological Processes. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Projected 21st century climate change on snow conditions over Shasta Dam watershed by means of dynamical downscaling

Snow is an important component of the Earth's climate system and is particularly vulnerable to global warming. It has been suggested that warmer temperatures may cause significant declines in snow water content and snow cover duration. In this study, snowfall and snowmelt were projected by means of a regional climate model that was coupled to a physically based snow model over Shasta Dam watershed to assess changes in snow water content and snow cover duration during the 21st century. This physically based snow model requires both physical data and future climate projections. These physical data include topography, soils, vegetation, and land use/land cover, which were collected from associated organizations. The future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the regional climate model under 4 emission scenarios simulated by 2 general circulation models (fifth‐generation of the ECHAM general circulation model and the third‐generation atmospheric general circulation model). The downscaled future projections were bias corrected before projecting snowfall and snowmelt processes over Shasta Dam watershed during 2010–2099. This study's results agree with those of previous studies that projected snow water equivalent is decreasing by 50–80% whereas the fraction of precipitation falling as snowfall is decreasing by 15% to 20%. The obtained projection results show that future snow water content will change in both time and space. Furthermore, the results confirm that physical data such as topography, land cover, and atmospheric–hydrologic data are instrumental in the studies on the impact of climate change on the water resources of a region.     

Recent snow cover changes over central European low mountain ranges

In this study, we simulated the snow water equivalent (SWE), rain-on-snow (ROS) events, evapotranspiration, and run-off for the period 1961–2016 in a central European region covered by low mountain ranges (<820 m a.s.l.) using a distributed hydrological model TRAnspiration and INterception evaporation model (TRAIN). We utilized improved cloud-free Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow cover products to evaluate the modelled snow-covered area, indicating a good performance of the snow modelling. We analysed the intra- and inter-annual variations of the simulated hydrological variables and the synchronous climate variables (air temperature and precipitation). Trend detection indicates a significant SWE decline throughout the snow season, but principally at the high elevations; the most severe warming occurred in early spring (March), whereas precipitation showed a slight increase in January and February. The snowpack in February has displayed the most striking reduction during the past 56 years, which is likely related to both the highest susceptibility of snow to warming and the increased ROS occurrence in February since the early 1990s. The increased combination of high temperatures and extreme rainfalls, as well as the earlier snowmelt, has resulted in a run-off increase during the earlier winter but a decrease in March. The expected changing climate towards warmer and wetter winters will probably exacerbate winter flooding in the future.     

Modelling the spatial–temporal variability of spring snowmelt in an arctic catchment

Arctic spring landscapes are usually characterized by a mosaic of coexisting snow‐covered and bare ground patches. This phenomenon has major implications for hydrological processes, including meltwater production and runoff. Furthermore, as indicated by aircraft observations, it affects land‐surface–atmosphere exchanges, leading to a high degree of variability in surface energy terms during melt. The heterogeneity and related differences when certain parts of the landscape become snow free also affects the length of the growing season and the carbon cycle. Small‐scale variability in arctic snowmelt is addressed here by combining a spatially distributed end‐of‐winter snow cover with simulations of variable snowmelt energy balance factors for the small arctic catchment of Trail Valley Creek (63 km²). Throughout the winter, snow in arctic tundra basins is redistributed by frequent blowing snow events. Areas of above‐ or below‐average end‐of‐winter snow water equivalents were determined from land‐cover classifications, topography, land‐cover‐based snow surveys, and distributed surface wind‐field simulations. Topographic influences on major snowmelt energy balance factors (solar radiation and turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat) were modelled on a small‐scale (40 m) basis. A spatially variable complete snowmelt energy balance was subsequently computed and applied to the distributed snow cover, allowing the simulation of the progress of melt throughout the basin. The emerging patterns compared very well visually to snow cover observations from satellite images and aerial photographs. Results show the relative importance of variable end‐of‐winter snow cover, spatially distributed melt energy fluxes, and local advection processes for the development of a patchy snow cover. This illustrates that the consideration of these processes is crucial for an accurate determination of snow‐covered areas, as well as the location, timing, and amount of meltwater release from arctic catchments, and should, therefore, be included in hydrological models. Furthermore, the study shows the need for a subgrid parameterization of these factors in the land surface schemes of larger scale climate models. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of snow melting upon landslides in the central Argentinean Andes

This paper focuses on the historical range of variability of landslide activity and its relation to climate in the Aconcagua Park, Argentina. Landslide frequency data are obtained through historic compilation, including the review of more than 85 data sources and personal interviews with members of the local community. Based on these records, the study analyzes major landslide triggering mechanisms and evaluates the role of climate. Slope instability in Aconcagua Park appears to be mainly forced by the melting of snow accumulated during the winter season, which in turn promotes soil saturation and landslide occurrence the following spring–summer (December–February). This finding is supported by a strong correlation between landslides and stream flows of Andean rivers. These peaks occur during warmer seasons, fed by snow and ice‐glacier melting. In contrast, the correlation between landslide frequency and precipitation (diary/accumulative/monthly/annual) is less certain; and the relationship of landslide to temperature records (mean annual temperature/mean temperature during November–February period) is weak. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Snowmelt and the hydrological interaction of forest–grassland ecosystems in Central Yakutia,eastern Siberia

In the last two decades the major focus of study in forest water and carbon balances in eastern Siberia has been on the effect of rain during the growing season. Little attention has been paid to the contribution of snowmelt water. The results of the present study indicate that weather conditions during the snowmelt period as well as the soil moisture conditions carried from the previous year's growing season strongly determined the water availability for the forest ecosystem at the beginning of the next growing season. In the forest–grassland intermingled ecosystem of lowland Central Yakutia, gradual snowmelt water flow from the forest into the adjacent grassland depressions increased when soil moisture was high and air temperature was low, whereas low soil moisture and high air temperatures accelerated soil thawing and consequently snowmelt water infiltration into the forest soil. We found that snow depth did not determine the volume of snowmelt water moving to the grassland depression since the thermokarst lake water level in the adjacent grassland was about 25 cm lower in 2005 than in May 2006, even though maximum snow depth reached 57 cm and 43 cm in the winter of 2004–05 and 2005–06, respectively. The contribution of snowmelt water to forest growth as well as the flow of water from the forest to the grasslands showed a strong annual variability. We conclude that warmer springs and high variability in precipitation regimes as a result of climate change will result in more snowmelt water infiltration into the forest soil when the previous year's precipitation is low while more snowmelt water will flow into the thermokarst lake when the previous year's precipitation is high. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Soil temperature and soil moisture dynamics in winter and spring under heavy snowfall conditions in North-Eastern Japan

Warm winters and high precipitation in north-eastern Japan generate snow covers of more than three meters depth and densities of up to 0.55 g cm⁻³. Under these conditions, rain/snow ratio and snowmelt have increased significantly in the last decade under increasing warm winters. This study aims at understanding the effect of rain-on-snow and snowmelt on soil moisture under thick snow covers in mid-winter, taking into account that snowmelt in spring is an important source of water for forests and agriculture. The study combines three components of the Hydrosphere (precipitation, snow cover and soil moisture) in order to trace water mobility in winter, since soil temperatures remained positive in winter at nearly 0.3°C. The results showed that soil moisture increased after snowmelt and especially after rain-on-snow events in mid-winter 2018/2019. Rain-on-snow events were firstly buffered by fresh snow, increasing the snow water equivalent (SWE), followed by water soil infiltration once the water storage capacity of the snowpack was reached. The largest increase of soil moisture was 2.35 vol%. Early snowmelt increased soil moisture with rates between 0.02 and 0.035 vol% hr⁻¹ while, rain-on-snow events infiltrated snow and soil faster than snowmelt and resulted in rates of up to 1.06 vol% hr⁻¹. These results showed the strong connection of rain, snow and soil in winter and introduce possible hydrological scenarios in the forest ecosystems of the heavy snowfall regions of north-eastern Japan. Effects of rain-on-snow events and snowmelt on soil moisture were estimated for the period 2012–2018. Rain/snow ratio showed that only 30% of the total precipitation in the winter season 2011/2012 was rain events while it was 50% for the winter 2018/2019. Increasing climate warming and weakening of the Siberian winter monsoons will probably increase rain/snow ratio and the number of rain-on-snow events in the near future.     

Spatial and temporal patterns of snow accumulation and aerial ablation across the McMurdo Dry Valleys,Antarctica

Snow in the McMurdo Dry Valleys is a potential source of moisture for subnivian soils in a cold desert ecosystem. In a water‐limited environment, enhanced soil moisture is expected to provide more favourable conditions for subnivian soil communities. In addition, snow cover insulates the underlying soil from air temperature extremes. Quantifying the spatial and temporal patterns of seasonal snow accumulation and ablation is necessary to understand these dynamics. Repeat high‐resolution imagery acquired for the 2009–2010 austral summer was used to map the seasonal distribution of snow across Taylor and Wright valleys, Southern Victorialand, Antarctica. An edge detection algorithm was used to perform an object‐based classification of snow‐covered area. Coupled with topographic parameters obtained from a 30‐m digital elevation model, unique distribution patterns were characterized for five regions within the neighbouring valleys. Time lapses of snow distribution in each region provide insight into spatially variable aerial ablation rates (change in area of landscape covered by snow) across the region. A strong coastal to interior gradient of decreasing snow‐covered area was evident for both Taylor and Wright valleys. The surrounding regions of Lake Fryxell, Lake Hoare, Lake Bonney, Lake Brownworth, and Lake Vanda exhibited losses of snow‐covered area of 9.61 km² (?93%), 1.63 km² (?72%), 1.07 km² (?97%), 2.60 km² (?82%), and 0.25 km² (?96%), respectively, as measured from peak accumulation in October to mid‐January. Differences in aerial ablation rates within and across local regions suggest that both topographic variation and regional microclimates influence the ablation of seasonal snow cover. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling hydrological conditions in the maritime forest region of south‐western Nova Scotia

Hydrological processes and conditions were quantified for the Mersey River Basin (two basins: one exiting below Mill Falls, and one exiting below George Lake), the Roger's Brook Basin, Moosepit Brook, and for other selected locations at and near Kejimkujik National Park in Nova Scotia, Canada, from 1967 to 1990. Addressed variables included precipitation (rain, snow, fog), air temperature, stream discharge, snowpack accumulations, throughfall, soil and subsoil moisture, soil temperature and soil frost, at a monthly resolution. It was found that monthly per hectare stream discharge was essentially independent of catchment area from <20 km² to more than 1000 km². The forest hydrology model ForHyM2 was used to simulate monthly rates of stream discharge, throughfall and snowpack water equivalents for mature forest conditions. These simulations were in good agreement with the historical records once the contributions of fog and mist to the area‐wide water budget were taken into account, each on a monthly basis. The resulting simulations establish a hydrologically consistent, continuous, comprehensive and partially verified record for basin‐wide outcomes for all major hydrological processes and conditions, be these related to stream discharge, soil moisture, soil temperature, snowpack accumulations, soil frost, throughfall, interception and soil percolation. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of a century of land cover and climate change on the hydrology of the Puget Sound basin

The Puget Sound basin in northwestern Washington, USA has experienced substantial land cover and climate change over the last century. Using a spatially distributed hydrology model (the Distributed Hydrology‐Soil‐Vegetation Model, DHSVM) the concurrent effects of changing climate (primarily temperature) and land cover in the basin are deconvolved, based on land cover maps for 1883 and 2002, and gridded climate data for 1915–2006. It is found that land cover and temperature change effects on streamflow have occurred differently at high and low elevations. In the lowlands, land cover has occurred primarily as conversion of forest to urban or partially urban land use, and here the land cover signal dominates temperature change. In the uplands, both land cover and temperature change have played important roles. Temperature change is especially important at intermediate elevations (so‐called transient snow zone), where the winter snow line is most sensitive to temperature change—notwithstanding the effects of forest harvest over the same part of the basin. Model simulations show that current land cover results in higher fall, winter and early spring streamflow but lower summer flow; higher annual maximum flow and higher annual mean streamflow compared with pre‐development conditions, which is largely consistent with a trend analysis of model residuals. Land cover change effects in urban and partially urban basins have resulted in changes in annual flow, annual maximum flows, fall and summer flows. For the upland portion of the basin, shifts in the seasonal distribution of streamflows (higher spring flow and lower summer flow) are clearly related to rising temperatures, but annual streamflow has not changed much. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MODIS Terra Collection 6 fractional snow cover validation in mountainous terrain during spring snowmelt using Landsat TM and ETM+

Daily swath MODIS Terra Collection 6 fractional snow cover (MOD10_L2) estimates were validated with two‐day Landsat TM/ETM + snow‐covered area estimates across central Idaho and southwestern Montana, USA. Snow cover maps during spring snowmelt for 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2007, and 2009 were compared between MODIS Terra and Landsat TM/ETM + using least‐squared regression. Strong spatial and temporal map agreement was found between MODIS Terra fractional snow cover and Landsat TM/ETM + snow‐covered area, although map disagreement was observed for two validation dates. High‐altitude cirrus cloud contamination during low snow conditions as well as late season transient snowfall resulted in map disagreement. MODIS Terra's spatial resolution limits retrieval of thin‐patchy snow cover, especially during partially cloudy conditions. Landsat's image acquisition frequency can introduce difficulty when discriminating between transient and resident mountain snow cover. Furthermore, transient snowfall later in the snowmelt season, which is a stochastic accumulation event that does not usually persist beyond the daily timescale, will skew decadal snow‐covered area variability if bi‐monthly climate data record development is the objective. As a quality control step, ground‐based daily snow telemetry snow‐water‐equivalent measurements can be used to verify transient snowfall events. Users of daily MODIS Terra fractional snow products should be aware that local solar illumination and sensor viewing geometry might influence fractional snow cover estimation in mountainous terrain. Cross‐sensor interoperability has been confirmed between MODIS Terra and Landsat TM/ETM + when mapping snow from the visible/infrared spectrum. This relationship is strong and supports operational multi‐sensor snow cover mapping, specifically climate data record development to expand cryosphere, climate, and hydrological science applications. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Surface water input from snowmelt and rain throughfall in western juniper: potential impacts of climate change and shifts in semi‐arid vegetation

In the western USA, shifts from snow to rain precipitation regimes and increases in western juniper cover in shrub‐dominated landscapes can alter surface water input via changes in snowmelt and throughfall. To better understand how shifts in both precipitation and semi‐arid vegetation cover alter above‐ground hydrological processes, we assessed how rain interception differs between snow and rain surface water input; how western juniper alters snowpack dynamics; and how these above‐ground processes differ across western juniper, mountain big sagebrush and low sagebrush plant communities. We collected continuous surface water input with four large lysimeters, interspace and below‐canopy snow depth data and conducted periodic snow surveys for two consecutive water years (2013 and 2014). The ratio of interspace to below‐canopy surface water input was greater for snow relative to rain events, averaging 79.4% and 54.8%, respectively. The greater surface water input ratio for snow is in part due to increased deposition of redistributed snow under the canopy. We simulated above‐ground energy and water fluxes in western juniper, low sagebrush and mountain big sagebrush for two 8‐year periods under current and projected mid‐21st century warmer temperatures with the Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model. Juniper compared with low and mountain sagebrush reduced surface water input by an average of 138 mm or 24% of the total site water budget. Conversely, warming temperatures reduced surface water input by only an average of 14 mm across the three vegetation types. The future (warmer) simulations resulted in earlier snow disappearance and surface water input by 51 and 45 days, respectively, across juniper, low sagebrush and mountain sagebrush. Information from this study can help land managers in the sagebrush steppe understand how both shifts in climate and semi‐arid vegetation will alter fundamental hydrological processes. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.