| 基于滑坡灾害预警分级的应急处置措施 |
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| 引用本文： | 覃瀚萱,桂蕾,余玉婷,李登华.基于滑坡灾害预警分级的应急处置措施[J].地质科技通报,2021,40(4):187-195. |
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| 作者姓名： | 覃瀚萱 桂蕾 余玉婷 李登华 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目41601563国家重点研发计划2017YFC0405005 |
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| 摘 要： | 滑坡灾害应急处置能力是地质灾害减灾防灾的重要方面。目前，基于滑坡灾害预测和预警分级成果，系统性的应急措施分类研究还鲜有展开，因此，以三峡库区白水河滑坡为例，运用时间序列加法模型将滑坡累计位移分解为趋势项位移与周期项位移，并分别应用多项式拟合及自回归（AR）模型对2个分量进行预测，在此结果上采用聚类分析方法将滑坡变形分为匀速变形与加速变形阶段，综合判断滑坡灾害预警等级，开展了针对滑坡预警分级的应急措施研究。结果表明:白水河滑坡预警等级主要为蓝色和黄色2种类型，对处于不同的预警等级下的滑坡，可根据滑坡变形特征快速决策，基于滑坡灾害预测和预警分级结果能更有效地指导滑坡应急处置。
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| 关 键 词： | 滑坡 应急措施 位移预测 监测预警 时间序列 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-12-04 |
Emergency measures based on early warning classification of landslide |
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| Abstract: | The emergency disposal ability of landslide disaster is an important aspect of disaster reduction and prevention of geological disasters.At present, few systematic studies on the classification of emergency measures are based on landslide disaster prediction and early warning classification results, therefore, take the Baishuihe landslide as an example, time series additive model is decomposed into trend term displacement and periodic term displacement, and use of polynomial fitting and autoregressive (AR) model to forecast the two components, on the results by using clustering analysis method the landslide deformation is divided into uniform deformation and accelerating stage.The emergency measures of landslide warning classification are studied.The results show that the warning grades of Baishuihe landslide are mainly blue and yellow.For the landslide under different warning grades, rapid decision can be made according to the deformation characteristics of landslide, and the landslide emergency disposal can be guided more effectively based on the prediction of landslide disaster and the warning classification results. |
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