| 基于CA-Markov模型的多时间跨度土地利用变化模拟 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 靳含,杨爱民,夏鑫鑫,朱磊,张青青.基于CA-Markov模型的多时间跨度土地利用变化模拟[J].干旱区地理,2019,42(6):1415-1426. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 靳含 杨爱民 夏鑫鑫 朱磊 张青青 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 新疆农业大学草业与环境科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052;新疆土壤与植物生态过程实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830052;新疆农业大学草业与环境科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐,830052 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41561019)；国家自然科学基金项目(41561103) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 土地利用/覆被变化（Land Use and Cover Change， LUCC）模拟是LUCC研究的主要内容和重要手段。时间间隔是模拟过程中的重要参数，对模拟结果精度有何影响，有待深入研究。以新疆玛纳斯河流域典型绿洲区四道河子镇为例，基于遥感影像提取1975、1985、1995、2000、2005、2010年和2015年的土地利用数据，分别以20 a、15 a、10 a和5 a为时间间隔构建CA-Markov模型，模拟2015年土地利用结构，定量探讨时间间隔对CA-Markov模型精度的影响。结果表明：1975—2015年，四道河子镇LUCC以耕地和草地为主，期间耕地、建设用地迅速扩张，林地、草地和未利用地大幅减少，水域在1985—2000年呈现小幅增长。耕地的增加和草地及林地的减少是研究区近40 a LUCC最显著的特征。对比模拟结果与实际结果，时间间隔为20 a、15 a、10 a、5 a的TFOM分别为70.35%，69.18%，76.32%和88.00%。基于2005—2010年转移概率的模拟结果更接近于2015年实际结果，适合模拟四道河子镇未来的土地利用变化。土地利用模拟应依据区域LUCC特征确定最佳的时间间隔，提高模拟精度。
|
| 关 键 词： | 玛纳斯河流域 土地利用变化 CA-Markov 时间间隔 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-03-12 |
Simulation of land use change at different time spans based on CA-Markov model |
| |
| JIN Han,YANG Ai-min,XIA Xin-xin,ZHU Lei,ZHANG Qing-qing.Simulation of land use change at different time spans based on CA-Markov model[J].Arid Land Geography,2019,42(6):1415-1426. |
| |
| Authors: | JIN Han YANG Ai-min XIA Xin-xin ZHU Lei ZHANG Qing-qing |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1 College of Pratacultural and Environmental Sciences,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,Xinjiang,China;2.Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Soil and Plant Ecological Processes,Urumqi 830052,Xinjiang,China |
| |
| Abstract: | The study of Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) and its dynamics is crucial for human existence and sustainable development. LUCC simulation is the main content and effective method in LUCC research and time span is one of the most important parameters in the simulation process, and thus its effect on the simulation accuracy needs to be further studied. In order to explore LUCC simulation accuracy at different time spans, we took Sidaohezi Town of Manas River Basin in Xinjiang, China as the study area. Seven land use maps were created from remote sensing images (MSS images in the 1975, M images in 1985 and 1995, ETM images in 2000, 2005 and 2010, and OLI images in 2015) and the land surfaces were classified into six land cover categories: cultivated land, woodland, grassland, water area, construction land and unused land. Then the land use transition probability during four different periods (1975—1995,1985—2000,1995—2005 and 2005—2010) were used to establish the CA-rkov model to simulate land use in 2015 using long-term (20-ears),medium-term (15-and 10-years) and short-term (5-years) intervals respectively. he simulation process was completed by the CA-arkov module in IDRISI software. Finally, our simulated land use maps for 2015 (R1, R2, R3, R4) were compared with the real land use map in 2015 (R), and the Total Figure of Merit (TFOM) indexes were used to evaluate the model's accuracy. he results showed that from 1975 to 2015,cultivated land and grassland were the dominant land use types in Sidaohezi Town. During the study period, cultivated land and construction land expanded rapidly, whereas forest land, grassland and unused land have been greatly reduced, and the water area has experienced a slight increase from 1985 to 2000.Throughout the study period, he increase of cultivated land and decrease of grassland and woodland were the most significant features of LUCC. compared the simulated results with real land use map in 2015,five components of agreement and disagreement were detected as S1,S2,S3,S4 and S5The TFOM indices of 20-, 15-, 10- and 5-years intervals were 70.35%,69.18%,76.32% and 88.00% respectively. It was indicated that smaller time intervals produced higher accuracy. The time span of 5-years was the optimum time interval to simulate the land use change of Sidaohezi Town from 1975 to 2015.This study provided a scientific basis for the selection of time interval in land use change simulation. Moreover, the simulation accuracy depends not merely on the land use transition probability within a certain period of time, but the local land policies and social development characteristics in the same time should also be considered. |
| |
| Keywords: | serif Manas River Basin" target="_blank">">Manas River Basin land use and cover change CA-Markov time span |
| 本文献已被 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《干旱区地理》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《干旱区地理》下载全文 |
|
