| 单体库岸滑坡及其次生涌浪灾害风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王芳,殷坤龙,桂蕾,陈丽霞.单体库岸滑坡及其次生涌浪灾害风险分析[J].地球科学,2018,43(3):899-909. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王芳 殷坤龙 桂蕾 陈丽霞 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国地质大学工程学院, 湖北武汉 430074 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目41572292国家自然科学基金项目41601563国家自然科学基金项目41641012 |
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| 摘 要： | 水库滑坡次生涌浪灾害是库水运营过程中重要的灾害类型，开展滑坡及其次生涌浪灾害风险分析，能够合理确定并评价滑坡及其次生涌浪灾害对生命及财产的影响程度，从而为采取经济有效的减灾应急措施提供理论依据和技术支持.以三峡库区万州区塘角1号滑坡为例，探讨不同库水位降雨组合工况下，考虑空间差异性的单体滑坡危险性分析方法；确定滑坡次生涌浪灾害影响范围；完善滑坡及其次生涌浪灾害承灾体易损性评价方法；绘制最危险工况下塘角1号滑坡及其次生涌浪灾害经济风险和人口风险分布图，得出:塘角1号滑坡最危险工况为库水位175~145 m+3日100 mm降雨.在该工况下，塘角1号滑坡及其次生灾害总经济风险为2 239万元；坡体上室内人口总风险为0.55人.研究成果以期为指导该类滑坡减灾防灾提供思路和依据.
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| 关 键 词： | 滑坡 涌浪 风险分析 库岸 三峡库区 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017-12-20 |
Risk Analysis on Individual Reservoir Bank Landslide and Its Generated Wave |
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| Abstract: | The reservoir landslide and its generated surge are major disasters in the operation of reservoir water and their influence degree on life and property can be reasonably determined and evaluated.by risk analysis, which shall provide theoretical basis and technical support for economical and effective emergency measures of disaster reduction. Tangjiao No.1 landslide, in Wanzhou District, Three Gorges Reservoir, was taken as an example in this study. Firstly, the method of hazard analysis on individual landslide by considering the spatial difference and different water levels and rainfall scenarios was discussed. Secondly, the impact range of landslide generated wave was determined. Thirdly, the methods of vulnerability analysis on the elements at risk in the impact range of landslide and its generated wave were studied. Finally, under the most dangerous scenario, economic risk map of Tangshan No. 1 landslide and its generated wave and population risk map of Tangshan No. 1 landslide were obtained. The results show that the most dangerous scenario for Tangshan No. 1 landslide was water level decreasing from 175 m to 145 m with a 3-day-rain of 100 mm daily rainfall. Under this scenario, the total economic risk of Tangshan No. 1 landslide and its generated wave was 22.39 million RMB; the total indoor population risk of the landslide was 0.55 person. The results of this study could be used in guiding reservoir bank landslide disaster prevention and mitigation. |
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