| 降雨驱动泥石流危险性评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 常鸣,窦向阳,唐川,李宁,范宣梅.降雨驱动泥石流危险性评价[J].地球科学,2019,44(8):2794-2802. |
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| 作者姓名： | 常鸣 窦向阳 唐川 李宁 范宣梅 |
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| 作者单位： | 成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室, 四川成都 610059 |
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| 基金项目： | 地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室自由探索课题SKLGP2018Z013四川省科技厅重大科技项目2019YFS0073四川省教育厅科研课题17ZB0054国家重点研发计划2018YFC1505405第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究No.2019QZKK0903 |
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| 摘 要： | “5·12”汶川地震后大量滑坡崩塌体出现，伴随极端降雨极易向泥石流转换，其规模及危害程度远高于预期.2010年8月13日都江堰龙池场镇突发暴雨，导致八一沟泥石流暴发，冲毁拦挡坝，掩埋道路、房屋及农田.为了探索降雨驱动泥石流的危险性，选取八一沟泥石流作为研究对象，通过分析不同降雨频率下的泥石流暴发强度及周期，采用FLO-2D数值模拟方法开展危险性评价.经验证模拟精度可达78%，结合降雨频率（5年、20年、50年、100年、200年）、流速和堆积深度构建八一沟泥石流危险性评价模型并绘制分布图.结果表明，八一沟泥石流危险范围内高危险区占62%，中危险性区占28%，低危险区占10%，该结论为危险范围内重点设施的监测预警提供科学依据.
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| 关 键 词： | 八一沟 泥石流 FLO-2D 降雨频率 危险性评价 工程地质 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-12-25 |
Hazard Assessment of Typical Debris Flow Induced by Rainfall Intensity |
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| Abstract: | A large number of landslides and rock falls were produced in the meizoseismal area by the "5·12" Wenchuan earthquake. If an extreme rainfall occurred, lots of materials could be transformed into debris flow, with larger size and higher damage degree than expected. On 13th October 2010, debris flow occurred in Bayi gully in Dujiangyan County under rainstorm condition, destroying dam, burying road, houses and farms, and seriously affecting the daily life of local people. In order to reduce these damage, Bayi gully was selected as the research object. Combined debris flow intensity under the different rainfall frequency and period of the outbreak, this paper aims to obtain Bayi gully hazard assessment by the FLO-2D numerical simulation. First, the Bayi gully numerical simulation accuracy can reach 77% according to field test. Then, according to the different frequency of rainfall (5 years, 20 years, 50 years, 100 years, 200 years) and the debris flow velocity and deposit depth, the hazard assessment model is established. Finally, the hazard map of Bayi gully is obtained. The results show that the high hazard area accounted for 62% in the Bayi gully, the medium hazard area accounted for 28%, and the low hazard area accounted for 10%. The hazard assessment of Bayi gully can provide a reliable basis for the post-disaster reconstruction and the key area prevention. |
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