| 西北旱区潜在蒸散发的气候敏感性及其干旱特征研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 阴晓伟,吴一平,赵文智,赵富波,孙彭成,宋燕妮,邱临静.西北旱区潜在蒸散发的气候敏感性及其干旱特征研究[J].水文地质工程地质,2021,48(3):20-30. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 阴晓伟 吴一平 赵文智 赵富波 孙彭成 宋燕妮 邱临静 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 西安交通大学人居环境与建筑工程学院，陕西 西安 710049 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目（2019YFC0507403）；中科院战略先导专项B项目（XDB40020205） |
| |
| 摘 要： | 潜在蒸散量（PET）是干旱监测评价的重要指标，分析影响潜在蒸散发的气候敏感因子对揭示气候变化的水文响应机理尤为重要。常采用的局部敏感性方法不适用于非线性模型且难以评估各气象因子间的相互作用。对此，基于1964—2018年西北旱区内163个气象站的监测数据，通过Penman-Monteith公式，采用Sobol全局敏感性方法分析了西北旱区潜在蒸散发的气候敏感因子，计算得到了自校准帕默尔干旱指数（scPDSI），进而分析了区域干旱的时空演变特征。结果表明:1964—2018年西北旱区年均潜在蒸散量为1157.8 mm，高值出现在新疆东部与内蒙古西部地区，低值出现在青海南部地区。1993年为转折点，西北旱区潜在蒸散发受气温、日照时数、风速、相对湿度等多种因素综合影响由显著下降的趋势转变为显著上升，且在夏季最为明显。在1964—1993年，净辐射、风速与相对湿度的变化对潜在蒸散发的影响较大；在1994—2018年，风速与相对湿度的变化对潜在蒸散发的影响较大。scPDSI的时空分布表明新疆北部、青海中部以及甘肃境内的干旱有缓解的趋势；而黄河流域西南部干旱呈现加重趋势，将加剧区域水资源紧张，威胁生态安全。
|
| 关 键 词： | 西北旱区 潜在蒸散发 干旱 Penman-Monteith scPDSI Sobol全局敏感性分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-12-05 |
Drought characteristics and sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration to climatic factors in the arid and semi-arid areas of northwest China |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1. School of Human Settlements and Civil Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710049, China2. Linze Inland River Basin Research Station/Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is an important part of drought monitoring and evaluation. It is very important to analyze the climatic sensitive factors of PET to reveal the mechanism of hydrological responses to climate change. However, the local sensitivity method commonly used in previous studies is not suitable for nonlinear models and it is difficult to evaluate the interaction among meteorological factors. In this study, based on the monitoring data of 163 meteorological stations in the arid and semi-arid areas of northwest China from 1964 to 2018, we use the Penman-Monteith equation and Sobol global sensitivity to analyze the climatic sensitive factors of PET in the study area and discuss the climatic causes of the PET change. We also calculate the scPDSI and analyze the evolution characteristics of drought in northwest China. The results show that the annual average PET of the study area is 1157.8 mm with substantial spatial variations. The high-value areas are located in the eastern part of Xinjiang and the western part of Inner Mongolia, and the low-value areas are located in the southern part of Qinghai Province. The year 1993 was identified as a turning point, and the PET changed from a significant downward trend to a significant upward trend, which was more apparent in the summer in that year. From 1964 to 1993, the net radiation, wind speed, and relative humidity had a relatively greater impact on PET, while in the period 1994-2018, wind speed and relative humidity had a relatively greater impact on PET. The spatio-temporal distribution of scPDSI show that the drought in northern Xinjiang, central Qinghai and Gansu is becoming less severe, while the drought severity in the southwest part of the Yellow River Basin is becoming more severe, exacerbating regional water resources shortage and threatening ecological security. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
|
| 点击此处可从《水文地质工程地质》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《水文地质工程地质》下载全文 |
|
