| 中国东部浅水湖泊参照状态确定的非参数方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 汪靓,华祖林,顾莉,褚克坚.中国东部浅水湖泊参照状态确定的非参数方法[J].水科学进展,2014,25(5):724-730. |
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| 作者姓名： | 汪靓 华祖林 顾莉 褚克坚 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.河海大学浅水湖泊综合治理与资源开发教育部重点实验室, 江苏南京 210098; |
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| 基金项目： | 水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项课题(2012ZX07103-005);江苏省“青蓝工程”和普通高校研究生科研创新计划(CXZZ13_0271)~~ |
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| 摘 要： | 根据中国东部浅水湖泊受人类活动影响较严重的情况，将季节分解的非参数局部线性回归模型、频率分析和几何分块自助法有机结合，提出了一种基于非参数方法的湖泊参照状态确定的新方法。该方法首先将季节分解模型用于湖泊营养盐及其响应物的观测值，选取出适合用于推断参照状态的时间段；其次使用频率分析法分析此时间段内的观测值，并给出湖泊总氮、总磷和叶绿素a的参照状态值；最后用几何分块自助法给出各自的置信区间。该方法能有效克服前人提出方法的缺点。以太湖为例，采用该方法推断了参照状态浓度，总氮为0.78mg/L，总磷为0.030mg/L，叶绿素a为2.63μg/L；给出相应的95%置信区间分别为0.57~0.83mg/L、0.025~0.046mg/L和1.86~2.65μg/L。该方法也可适用受人类活动影响较大的中国东部其他浅水湖泊。
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| 关 键 词： | 参照状态 浅水湖泊 季节局部线性回归 几何分块自助法 置信区间 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-03-10 |
Estimating the reference nutrient levels of the shallow lakes in east China using a combination with several non-parametric methods |
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| WANG Liang,HUA Zulin,GU Li,CHU Kejian.Estimating the reference nutrient levels of the shallow lakes in east China using a combination with several non-parametric methods[J].Advances in Water Science,2014,25(5):724-730. |
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| Authors: | WANG Liang HUA Zulin GU Li CHU Kejian |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Key Laboratory of Integrated Regulation and Resource Development on Shallow Lakes of Ministry of Education, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2.National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Engineering Safety, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China |
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| Abstract: | A new non-parametric method combining a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure loess model, a frequency analysis and a geometrically distributed block Bootstrap method was established to calculate the reference nutrient levels of a shallow lake situated in the east China which is influenced by human activities. Firstly, the best period in which to make observations to assess the reference nutrient levels and their response matter in the lake was calculated out by using a trend-seasonal decomposition model. Then the reference levels of total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and chlorophylla (Chla) were obtained by frequency analysis. Finally, the confidence intervals were calculated using the geometrically distributed block Bootstrap method. This method overcomes the deficiencies of former methods. The reference levels in Taihu Lake, as one typical shallow lake in the east China, were worked out. The results of TN, TP and Chla in Taihu Lake were 0.78 mg/L, 0.030 mg/L and 2.63 μg/L. The 95% confidence intervals were 0.57~0.83 mg/L, 0.025~0.046 mg/L and 1.86~2.65 μg/L respectivly. The reference nutrient levels of other shallow lakes influenced by human activities in east China can also be obtained using this method. |
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| Keywords: | reference levels shallow lake trend-seasonal decomposition local linear regression geometrically distributed block Bootstrap confidence intervals |
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