| 旱灾风险定量评估总体框架及其关键技术 |
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| 引用本文： | 屈艳萍,郦建强,吕 娟,苏志诚,邱 冰,李爱花.旱灾风险定量评估总体框架及其关键技术[J].水科学进展,2014,25(2):297-304. |
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| 作者姓名： | 屈艳萍 郦建强 吕 娟 苏志诚 邱 冰 李爱花 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国水利水电科学研究院防洪抗旱减灾研究所,北京 100038; |
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| 基金项目： | 中国水利水电科学研究院科研专项（防集1225）；水利部重大基建前期项目（防水利前期1301） |
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| 摘 要： | 作为旱灾风险管理的核心内容和关键环节，旱灾风险评估逐渐成为旱灾研究的热点问题。从科学界定旱灾风险概念入手，辨析了干旱风险与旱灾风险之间的关系，并从机理上对旱灾风险形成机制进行了剖析和阐述；首次提出了旱灾风险定量评估总体框架，即通过建立干旱频率~潜在损失~抗旱能力之间的定量关系实现对旱灾风险的定量评估，并探讨了该评估框架所涉及的干旱频率分析技术、灾损评估技术、抗旱能力评估技术和旱灾风险表征技术等关键技术及其难点。
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| 关 键 词： | 旱灾风险 定量评估 干旱频率分析 灾损评估 抗旱能力 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013-08-13 |
A quantitative framework for assessing drought disaster risk and key techniques |
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| Affiliation: | 1.China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China;2.Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction, Beijing 100038, China;3.Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design General Institute, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100012, China |
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| Abstract: | As the key content and core element identified in the practice of drought disaster risk management, it has become a hot-button issue on how to properly assess the drought disaster risk in the field of both science and technology. Starting with reviewing the definition of drought disaster risk concept in the scientific community, the differences between the concepts of the drought risk and the drought disaster risk are made clear in this study. The mechanism of drought disaster risk formation is then investigated and elaborated. A quantitative framework for assessing drought disaster risk is first proposed, this is achieved by establishing the quantitative relationship among three important parameters: the drought frequency, the potential loss and the drought resistance capacity. The key techniques used in the framework are highlighted and discussed, which include the drought frequency analysis, the drought disaster loss assessment, the drought resistance capacity assessment, and the drought disaster risk characterization. The active issues and difficulties related to the techniques are also respectively addressed. |
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