| 中国不同气候区河川径流对气候变化的敏感性 |
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| 引用本文： | 王国庆,张建云,刘九夫,金君良,刘翠善.中国不同气候区河川径流对气候变化的敏感性[J].水科学进展,2011,22(3):307-314. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王国庆 张建云 刘九夫 金君良 刘翠善 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室, 江苏南京210029; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)资助项目，中英瑞气候变化适应项目资助，中央级公益性科研院所基本科研专项经费资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用一个简单的月水量平衡模型,模拟了位于中国不同气候区的21个典型流域的径流量过程,采用假定的气候情景,分析了河川径流量对不同气候变化的敏感性。结果表明,所采用的月水量平衡模型能够较好地模拟不同气候区的月流量过程,21个典型流域的Nash-Sutcliffe模型效率系数大多超过65%,水量平衡误差也均控制在1%以内。黄河以北干旱半干旱地区的典型流域径流量对气温和降水变化的响应敏感,其次为华中、华南半湿润区和湿润区,西部高寒山区径流对气候变化的响应最弱。因此,中国适应气候变化的重点应集中在干旱半干旱地区。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 评价模型 河川径流 敏感性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-06-28 |
The sensitivity of runoff to climate change in different climatic regions in China |
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| WANG Guo-qing,ZHANG Jian-yun,LIU Jiu-fu,JIN Jun-liang,LIU Cui-shan.The sensitivity of runoff to climate change in different climatic regions in China[J].Advances in Water Science,2011,22(3):307-314. |
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| Authors: | WANG Guo-qing ZHANG Jian-yun LIU Jiu-fu JIN Jun-liang LIU Cui-shan |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China;2.Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210029, China |
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| Abstract: | Using a simple water balance model,monthly runoffs were simulated for 21 catchments with different climatic conditions in China.The sensitivity of runoff to climate change in these catchments was further studied for hypothetical climate change scenarios.Results show that monthly runoffs can be well simulated by the simple water balance model,the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient on these catchments are greater than 65% and the corresponding average relative errors are less than 1%,and there is large spatial variat... |
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| Keywords: | climate change hydrological models runoff sensitivity |
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