| 区间暴雨和外江洪水位遭遇组合的风险 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘曾美,陈子燊.区间暴雨和外江洪水位遭遇组合的风险[J].水科学进展,2009,20(5):619-625. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘曾美 陈子燊 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.华南理工大学水利水电工程系, 广东, 广州, 510640; |
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| 基金项目： | 广东省防洪减灾研究项目资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 流域区间的治涝方案以及排涝设施的规模都与区间暴雨和外江洪水位的遭遇息息相关,因此需要研究区间暴雨与外江洪水位遭遇的风险规律.采用copula函数建立区间暴雨和外江洪水位的联合分布,用联合概率密度来描述两者遭遇的机率,提出了以遭遇为设计组合的排涝风险率和重现期的分析方法.实例研究表明,copula函数能够较好地模拟广东省阳山县区间暴雨与外江洪水位的联合分布;联合概率密度曲线表现为明显的正偏态分布,对于不超过10年一遇的暴雨,遭遇同频率的外江水位的机率最大;但对10年一遇以上的暴雨,最大遭遇机率的外江水位的重现期低于暴雨重现期;对任一排涝重现期,则有成反相关的区间最大暴雨和外江洪水位重现期的多种组合方案,且任一组合方案的暴雨重现期都大于排涝重现期.
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| 关 键 词： | 区间暴雨 外江洪水位 遭遇 联合概率密度 copula函数 排涝风险率 重现期 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008-08-11 |
Risk study of the bivariate encounter of interzone rainstorm and flood level of the outer river |
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| LIU Zeng-mei,CHEN Zhi-sheng.Risk study of the bivariate encounter of interzone rainstorm and flood level of the outer river[J].Advances in Water Science,2009,20(5):619-625. |
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| Authors: | LIU Zeng-mei CHEN Zhi-sheng |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Department of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510640, China;2.Geography Department, Zhongshan University, Guangzhou, 510275, China |
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| Abstract: | The waterlogging control methodology and the drainage capacity are deeply influenced by the flood level of outer river which encounters interzone rainstorm,so it's necessary to study the risk rule of the interzone rainstorm encountering with the outside river flood.The Copula theory is applied to construct the joint distribution of inter}ne rainstorm and the flood level of the outer river.The density of the bivariate joint probability is used to describe the chance of the bivariate encounter.The methods used to analyae the risk probability and the risk return period is presented.The case study is conducted and the resups indicate that the Cbpula function is able to simulate well the joint distribution of the interzone rainstorm and the flood level of outer Lianjiang river in Yangshan of Guangdong Province.The bivariate joint probability density clearly shows the characteristic of the positive skew distribution.The interzone rainstorm with a return period of no more than ten-year is most likely to encounter the flood level of outer river with the same frequencies,while for the interzone rainstorm with a return period of more than ten-year,the return period of the flood level of outer river corresponding to the maximal chance of encountering is smaller than that of the interzone rainstorm.For any return period of drainage,there are many kinds of combined schemes between the return period of the interzone rainstorm and the flood level of the outer river which are of the inverse correlation,and the return period of the interzone rainstorm is bigger that of drainage in any combined scheme. |
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