| 南水北调中线降水丰枯遭遇风险分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 康玲,何小聪.南水北调中线降水丰枯遭遇风险分析[J].水科学进展,2011,22(1):44-50. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 康玲 何小聪 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 华中科技大学水电与数字化工程学院, 湖北, 武汉, 430074 |
| |
| 基金项目： | “十一五”国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2006BAB04A09;2006BAB04A07)~~ |
| |
| 摘 要： | 受降水丰枯变化不确定性和差异性的影响,南水北调中线工程水源区与受水区降水的丰枯遭遇状态各不相同,给南水北调工程水资源调度运行带来风险。联合copula函数和贝叶斯网络理论,建立了南水北调中线工程水源区和受水区降水丰枯遭遇风险分析模型,对南水北调中线工程调水最不利的丰枯遭遇风险概率进行了研究。利用copula函数建立了水源区和受水区年降水量联合分布函数,计算条件概率,结合贝叶斯网络进行丰枯遭遇风险分析。结果表明南水北调中线4个受水区调水风险的概率均在25%以下,并对不同情景的调水风险进行了仿真分析。
|
| 关 键 词： | copula函数 贝叶斯网络 南水北调 丰枯遭遇 风险分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-03-15 |
Risk analysis of synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability of rich-poor precipitation in the Middle Route of South-to-North Water |
| |
| KANG Ling,HE Xiao-cong.Risk analysis of synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability of rich-poor precipitation in the Middle Route of South-to-North Water[J].Advances in Water Science,2011,22(1):44-50. |
| |
| Authors: | KANG Ling HE Xiao-cong |
| |
| Affiliation: | School of Hydropower and Information Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China |
| |
| Abstract: | One of the major risk factors in managing water resources in the middle route project of South-to-North Water diversion will be due to spatial and temporal variations in precipitation.This is because the synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability of rich-poor precipitation can be different at the source area of water and at the receiving area of water.In this study,a risk analysis model is developed using a combined approach based on the copula function and Bayesian networks.The copula function is used ... |
| |
| Keywords: | copula function Bayesian network South-to-North Water rich-poor encounter risk analysis |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《水科学进展》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《水科学进展》下载全文 |
