| 基于水文过程的泥石流预报中前期有效降水量的确定方法 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 张少杰,江玉红,杨红娟,刘敦龙.基于水文过程的泥石流预报中前期有效降水量的确定方法[J].水科学进展,2015,26(1):34-43. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 张少杰 江玉红 杨红娟 刘敦龙 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室, 四川成都 610041; |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(41101009);中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所自主部署青年基金项目(SDS-QN-1303)~~ |
| |
| 摘 要： | 前期有效降水量是泥石流预报的一个关键因子,但是确定此关键因子的常用方法存在参数取值过于人为主观化的问题。为解决这一问题,提出利用模拟降雨截留、入渗和蒸散发等水文过程的方法确定泥石流预报中的前期有效降雨量,并利用基于流域水土耦合机制的泥石流预报系统预报四川省在2013年7月9日的泥石流灾害来检验该方法。结果表明:利用水文过程模拟方法确定的前期有效降水更适用于泥石流预报,泥石流预报的漏报率比常用的降雨衰减经验公式低21.1%,能更好地为泥石流防灾减灾服务。
|
| 关 键 词： | 前期有效降水 泥石流 预报 水文过程模拟 降雨衰减经验公式 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-07-21 |
An hydrology-process based method for antecedent effect rainfall determination in debris flow forecasting |
| |
| ZHANG Shaojie;JIANG Yuhong;YANG Hongjuan;LIU Dunlong.An hydrology-process based method for antecedent effect rainfall determination in debris flow forecasting[J].Advances in Water Science,2015,26(1):34-43. |
| |
| Authors: | ZHANG Shaojie;JIANG Yuhong;YANG Hongjuan;LIU Dunlong |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1.Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China;2.Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Antecedent effect rainfall is a key factor in debris flow forecasting, but the current method used to calculate this factor has the defect that the parameters determination of the method is too subjectively. In order to solve this problem, a hydrology-process (e.g. rainfall interception, rainfall infiltration and evapotranspiration) based method to calculate the antecedent effect rainfall for debris flow forecasting is proposed. Taking the antecedent effect rainfall calculated by the hydrology-process based method and the empirical based method as the initial value, the debris flow forecasting system for Sichuan province based on the water-soil coupling mechanism is employed to forecast debris flow disasters induced by the heavy rainfall on July 9, 2013 in Sichuan province. The forecasting results show that the hydrology-process based method that used to calculate the antecedent effect rainfall is more suitable for debris flow forecasting, because the failure prediction rate of debris flow forecasting is 21.1% lower than the method of the empirical formula of the rainfall attenuation. Consequently, the hydrology-process based method that used to calculate the antecedent effect rainfall can serve the debris flow mitigation better. |
| |
| Keywords: | antecedent effect rainfall debris flow forecast hydrological process simulation empirical formula of the rainfall attenuation |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《水科学进展》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《水科学进展》下载全文 |
